Article

Impact of Urban Expansion on Rain Island Effect in Jinan City,

North China
Yanjun Zhao 1,2,3, Jun Xia 1,4,*, Zongxue Xu 3, Lei Zou 1, Yunfeng Qiao 2,5 and Peng Li 3

1 Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences
and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;
zhaoyj.20b@igsnrr.ac.cn (Y.Z.); zoulei@igsnrr.ac.cn (L.Z.)
2 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; qiaoyf@igsnrr.ac.cn

3 Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology, College of Water

Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; zxxu@bnu.edu.cn (Z.X.);

pli@mail.bnu.edu.cn (P.L.)
4 State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University,

Wuhan 430000, China

5 Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences

and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
* Correspondence: xiaj@igsnrr.ac.cn

Abstract: Rapid urbanization leads to changes in urban micro meteorology, such as the urban heat
island effect and rain island effect, which eventually brings about urban waterlogging and other
problems. In this study, the data of precipitation, temperatures and impervious surfaces with long
series and high resolution are used to study the rain island effect in Jinan City, China. MK-Sen’s
slope estimator, Pettitt test and Pearson correlation analysis are used to quantitatively analyze the
effects of urban expansion on extreme climate indices. The results show that Jinan City has experienced
rapid urbanization since the 1978 economic reform, and the impervious surface areas have increased
Citation: Zhao, Y.; Xia, J.; Xu, Z.; from 311.68 km2 (3.04%) in 1978 to 2389.50 km2 (23.33%) in 2017. Urban expansion has a significant
Zou, L.; Qiao, Y.; Li, P. Impact of
impact on temperature, with large variations in extreme temperature indices over the intensive
Urban Expansion on Rain Island
construction area relative to the sparse construction area, as well as significant positive correlations
Effect in Jinan City, North China.
with impervious surfaces. Jinan City shows a certain degree of rain island effect, which seems to be
Remote Sens. 2021, 13, 2989.
spatially correlated with the urban heat island effect. The frequency of short-duration precipitation
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13152989
events significantly increases and the intensity of precipitation events generally increases. The
Academic Editor: Piotr A. Werner magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation indices in the intensive construction area
significantly increases when compared to that in the sparse construction area, and they have a
Received: 10 June 2021 significant correlation with impervious surfaces. The tendency of Jinan City’s precipitation regime
Accepted: 26 July 2021 center shifts toward the intensive construction area.
Published: 29 July 2021
Keywords: urbanization; rain island; extreme precipitation; extreme temperatures; urban flood; Jinan
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays City
neutral with regard to jurisdictional
claims in published maps and
institutional affiliations.

1. Introduction
Urbanization is commonly pursued by all countries to achieve social and economic
Copyright: © 2021 by the authors. modernization. In 2018, 55% of the world’s population was recorded to live in urban
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. areas, a proportion that is expected to increase to 68% by 2050, and it is expected that the
This article is an open access article growth of the world’s urban population will be highly concentrated in a few countries,
distributed under the terms and such as China, India and Nigeria [1]. By 2030, more than 70% of China’s population is
conditions of the Creative Commons expected to live in metropolitan areas [2]. Urbanization inevitably leads to variations in
Attribution (CC BY) license near-surface material and energy balance and affects local atmospheric circulations [3].
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses The analysis of regional climate change caused by urban expansion has been the subject
/by/4.0/). of numerous studies in the past decade [4,5].

Remote Sens. 2021, 13, 2989. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13152989 www.mdpi.com/journal/remotesensing

Remote Sens. 2021, 13, 2989 2 of 17

The impact of urbanization on regional climate is due to variations in atmospheric

thermal, dynamic and chemical components [6,7]. The formation of urban rainfall is
dominated by urban heat island, changes in surface roughness and aerosol emissions
coupled with regional topography and climate features [8–13]. Shepherd and Burian
pointed out that the urban heat island effect has an important influence on precipitation
anomalies [14]. Ganeshan found that the amount and frequency of precipitation in urban
centers and downwind areas were often greater than those of surrounding areas [15].
Miao used the WRF model to analyze the influence of urbanization on summer
precipitation and concluded that the change in precipitation depended on the degree of
urbanization [16]. Yang et al. indicated that inland wind enhances the formation of a
convergence zone, leading to an increase in heavy rainfall in the Milwaukee–Lake
Michigan region [17]. Li and Ma observed that the city effect was obvious for local heavy
precipitation and large-scale weak precipitation events, but not for large-scale heavy
precipitation events [18].
Rapid urbanization has led to serious urban problems, such as urban waterlogging,
landslide hazard and environmental degradation, which threaten social stability,
economic development and human health [19]. Land urbanization changes the regional
hydrological conditions and reduces the stability of slopes, increasing the severity and
frequency of natural disasters [20,21]. From 2003 to 2014, there were 288,946 places with
geological disasters (including landslides, ground cracks and land subsidence) that
caused economic losses of about USD 870 million and 9560 casualties in China [22]. The
change in urban micrometeorology has become a growing concern, and extreme
precipitation and extreme temperature represent the key factors that influence it [23,24].
The mechanisms of how urbanization induces extreme precipitation are still poorly
understood, most of which are deduced from differences in precipitation between urban
and rural areas using data from numerical models, ground stations or satellites [25,26]. At
present, most studies focus on the indicators connected with precipitation intensity, but
there are still shortcomings in analyzing the regional patterns of extreme precipitation
[27].
Jinan City, the capital of Shandong Province, is an important intersection between
the Bohai Rim Economic Zone and the Beijing–Shanghai Economic Axis [28]. Its water
security is of great significance to the ecological protection and high-quality development
of the Yellow River basin. With the rapid urbanization development in Jinan City, the
urban climate conditions have changed, and urban flash flooding has become an
increasingly serious issue. The data of precipitation, temperatures and impervious
surfaces with long series and high resolution are used to study the spatio-temporal
evolution of temperature and precipitation and their correlation with urbanization in
Jinan City. The quantitative impact of the urbanization on air temperature and
precipitation is analyzed, and the “urban rain island effect” in Jinan City is analyzed in
depth. The knowledge on the contribution of urbanization to rainfall is of great practical
significance to the water security strategy in Jinan City.

2. Materials and Methods Description

2.1. Study Area Description
Located in east China (36°40′N, 117°00′E), Jinan is the capital city of Shandong
Province. It is a national logistics hub, one of the top 50 Asian cities, and a global second-
tier city. As of the end of 2019, Jinan City has a permanent population of 8.91 million and
a population urbanization rate of 71.21%. Jinan City is located at the junction of the low
mountains and hills in central southern Shandong and the alluvial plains in northwestern
Shandong. The elevation is high in the south and low in the north, which is conducive to
the accumulation of surface water and groundwater in the urban area. Jinan City has a
monsoon climate of medium latitudes, with an average annual temperature of 13.8 °C and
an average annual precipitation of 685 mm. Affected by marine air mass in summer, warm
Remote Sens. 2021, 13, 2989 3 of 17

and humid air currents from the ocean prevail, and there is a considerable amount of
rainfall. The unique topography causes the water vapor and hot air backflow to gather,
which leads to precipitation in summer in this region being higher more than that in other
northern cities in general.
Jinan City is dominated by piedmont plain. According to the spatial distribution of
impervious surfaces, it can be divided into the intensive construction area (towns and
their nearby areas) and the sparse construction area (rural areas and undeveloped areas),
so as to reveal its “urban rain island effect” (Figure 1).

(a)

(b)
Figure 1. (a) Geographic location and elevation of Jinan City; (b) impervious surfaces zoning of Jinan City.
Remote Sens. 2021, 13, 2989 4 of 17

2.2. Data Source Description

The data of precipitation and temperature during the period of 1979–2017 were
obtained from the China Meteorological Forced Dataset (CMFD), with a spatial resolution
of 0.1° (11.1 km) and a temporal resolution of three hours [29] (http://poles.tpdc.ac.cn/,
accessed on 21 January 2020) (Table 1). The meteorological dataset took TRMM (Tropical
Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite precipitation analysis data (3B42), Princeton forcing
data and GLDAS data, and GEWEX–SRB (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment–
Surface Radiation Budget) downward shortwave radiation data as the climatological
background field, and the observed CMA (China Meteorological Administration) station
data were interpolated to grid points. The dataset was made through fusion of remote
sensing products, reanalysis datasets and in situ station data. The accuracy is intermediate
between the meteorological observation data and the satellite remote sensing data. Due to
its continuous temporal coverage and consistent quality, the CMFD is one of the most
widely used climate datasets for China [30].
The impervious surface data of Jinan City during the period of 1978–2017 were
obtained from the database of the Department of Earth System Science of Tsinghua
University, with a spatial resolution of 60 m in 1978 and 30 m in 1985–2017 [31]
(http://data.ess.tsinghua.edu.cn, accessed on 15 June 2019) (Table 1). We selected the
Urban and Rural data. They developed an automatic impervious surface mapping
framework on Google Earth Engine (GEE), using different algorithms for the processing
of the 60 m resolution MSS and 30 m resolution Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM),
Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Operational Land Imager (OLI) data.
Landsat imagery is the main source, with an ancillary dataset of nighttime light (NTL)
data. The NTL data were derived from the day/night band (DNB) detectors of the Suomi-
NPP Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The overall accuracy of the
impervious surface data is more than 90%.

Table 1. Description of data source.

Data Resolution Unit Metadata Data Sources

CMA station data
CMFD
GLDAS NOAH10SUBP 3H
Precipitation 3 h and 0.1° mm hr −1 (A Big Earth Data Platform for
GLDAS NOAH025 3H
Three Poles)
TRMM 3B42
CMFD
CMA station data
Temperature 3 h and 0.1° K (A Big Earth Data Platform for
GLDAS NOAH10SUBP 3H
Three Poles)
Database of Tsinghua University
1 y and 30 m Landsat MSS 1–5, TM 4–5,
Impervious surfaces (Finer Resolution Observation and
(60 m in 1978) ETM+, LC8; NTL data
Monitoring–Global Land Cover)

2.3. Methodology Description

2.3.1. Extreme Climate Indices
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recommended 27 core extreme
climate indices that have been widely used in climate research around the world [32–35].
We selected 13 indices to study the changes in the microclimate of Jinan City and made
corresponding modifications according to local conditions, as shown in Table 2.
In order to deeply analyze the duration and intensity of precipitation events, another
10 precipitation indices were selected. N1–3h, N4–6h, N7–9, N10–12h and N>12h represent the
number of precipitation events of 1–3 h, 4–6 h, 7–9 h, 10–12 h and more than 12 h,
respectively, and the unit is time. P1–3, P4–6h, P7–9h, P10–12h and P>12h represent the intensity of
the corresponding precipitation events. The unit is mm·(1–3 h)−1, mm·(4–6 h)−1, mm·(7–9
h)−1, mm·(10–12 h)−1 and mm·(>12 h)−1, respectively.
Remote Sens. 2021, 13, 2989 5 of 17

Table 2. Definitions of the precipitation and temperature indices.

Index Description Units

Tm Annual mean temperature °C
TR Annual count of days when daily minimum temperature >20 °C days
FD Annual count of days when daily minimum temperature <0 °C days
DTR Average of daily temperature difference °C
SDII Annual total precipitation divided by wet days in the year mm/day
ATP Annual total precipitation in wet days mm
Rx1day Annual maximum 1-day precipitation mm
R95p Annual precipitation when DP > 95th percentile mm
APD Number of wet days in the year days
R10 Annual count of days when DP ≥ 10 mm days
R25 Annual count of days when DP ≥ 25 mm days
R50 Annual count of days when DP ≥ 50 mm days
CDD Maximum number of consecutive days when DP < 1 mm days
DP means daily precipitation; a wet day is defined by DP ≥ 1 mm.

2.3.2. M-K and Sen’s Slope Estimator

The M-K test does not require data to obey a specific distribution, and it is widely
used to estimate the changing trends of meteorological and hydrological elements over
time [36]. A positive Z value indicates an increasing trend, and there is a significant trend
in the time series when | Z | Z1 / 2 . In this study, the specific significance level α = 0.05 is
adopted, and a significant trend exists if | Z | 1.96 .
Sen’s slope estimator is used in conjunction with the M-K test to estimate the rate of
change of hydrometeorological elements [37,38]:
x j  xk
Qi  ( j, k  1,...,n, j  k ) (1)
jk

In Equation (1), xj and xk represent the data values at times j and k (j > k), respectively.
The N values of Qi are ranked from smallest to largest, where N = (n(n − 1)/2), and Sen’s
slope estimator is computed as:

QN 1 , if N is odd
 2

Qmed   QN  QN  2 (2)
 2 2
 , if N is even
2
The value of Qmed reflects the change rate of the data, and a positive value indicates
an increasing trend.

2.3.3. Pettitt Test

The Pettitt test is a nonparametric test method for identifying abrupt change points
in hydrological series [39]. A statistical index Ut,N is expressed as follows:
N
Ut ,N  U t 1,N   sgn( xt  xi ) ( 1  t  N ) (3)
i 1
where, similarly,
Remote Sens. 2021, 13, 2989 6 of 17

1,xt  xi

sgn( xt  xi )  0,xt  xi (4)
1,x  x
 t i

The most possible change point is found where its value is:

Kt  max|Ut ,N | (1  t  N ) (5)

The significance probability is evaluated as:

p  2 exp  6( K t )2 / ( N 3  N 2 ) (6)

If p  0 .05 , the point t is considered as a significant change point in this study.

2.3.4. Pearson Correlation Analysis

Pearson correlation coefficient can quantitatively measure the linear relationship
between random variables [40] and it is expressed as follows:
 
1 n X  X Yi  Y
r  ( i )( ) (7)
n 1 i  1 SX SY

In Equation (7), n is the number of sequences; X and SX are the mean value and

mean square deviation of sequences X, respectively; and Y and SY are the mean value
and mean square deviation of sequences Y, respectively. Positive r indicates a positive
correlation between the two variables, and negative r indicates a negative correlation. The
larger the absolute value of r, the stronger the correlation between the two sequences.
Similarly, the specific significance level is 0.05 in this study, and the correlation is
significant when p  0 .05 .

3. Results Analysis
3.1. Urbanization Process in Jinan City
Based on the impervious surface data of Jinan City in 1978 and 1985–2017, the spatial
and temporal variations of impervious surfaces in Jinan City during the period of 1978–
2017 were analyzed. The proportion of impervious area from 1979 to 1984 was obtained
by the linear interpolation method. As can be seen from Figure 2, the proportion of
impervious surface areas in Jinan City increased rapidly from 1978 to 2017, and the growth
rate showed an increasing trend. In 1978, 1995, 2005 and 2017, the impervious surface
areas were 311.68 km2 (3.04%), 1016.23 km2 (9.92%), 1546.56 km2 (15.10%) and 2389.50 km2
(23.33%), respectively.
Remote Sens. 2021, 13, 2989 7 of 17

25

20

Proportion / %
15

10

0
1978 1988 1998 2008 2018
Time
Figure 2. Proportions of impervious surface areas in Jinan City (the blue dots represent interpolation
data during the period of 1979–1984).

As can be seen from Figure 3, the impervious surfaces in Jinan City continued to
expand in space during the period of 1978–2017. In 1978, the impervious surfaces were
mainly concentrated in the central old urban area of Jinan City. With the development of
urbanization, the impervious surfaces gradually expanded to the east, southwest,
southeast and north of Jinan City. Urbanization is mainly reflected by the expansion of
urban space from the center to the periphery.

Figure 3. Spatial distribution of impervious surface areas in Jinan City during the period of 1978–
2017.

3.2. Characteristics of Temperature in Jinan City

3.2.1. Spatial and Temporal Variations of Temperature Indices
Based on temperature data, four temperature indices including the annual mean
temperature (Tm), tropical nights (TR), frost days (FD) and diurnal temperature range
(DTR) were selected to analyze the spatial distribution of temperature in Jinan City during
1979–2017.
The spatial distribution of air temperature is basically consistent with that of
impervious surfaces, and the temperature in the impervious surface areas is generally
higher than that in the permeable surfaces area (Figure 4). The high-value areas of Tm and
TR and the low-value areas of FD and DTR are mostly concentrated in the intensive
construction area. The results indicate that the impervious surfaces have a certain degree
of impact on the spatial distribution of temperature.
Remote Sens. 2021, 13, 2989 8 of 17

Figure 4. Spatial distribution of temperature indices in Jinan City during the period of 1979–2017.

During the period of 1979–2017, the temperature in Jinan City showed an increasing
trend, and the extreme values of the temperature indices were mainly concentrated in the
southeastern areas and the southwest mountainous areas (Figure 5). The variation trend
of temperature indices in the intensive construction area is significant, and the fluctuation
range is small. It can be seen that the variations of temperature have a certain degree of
correlation with the expansion of impervious surfaces.

Figure 5. Spatial variation trend of the temperature indices in Jinan City during the period of 1979–2017.
Remote Sens. 2021, 13, 2989 9 of 17

3.2.2. Effects of Urban Expansion on Temperature

In order to quantitatively analyze the impact of urban expansion on temperature, the
value of temperature indices in the sparse construction area was subtracted from that in
the intensive construction area of every year so as to eliminate the impact of climate
change on temperature (Table 3). Based on their Sen’s slope estimator, Tm and TR show
an increasing trend, with an average rate of 0.05 °C·(10a)−1 and 1.1 °C·(10 a)−1, respectively.
FD and DTR display a decreasing trend, with an average of 1.8 day·(10 a)−1 and 0.1 °C·(10
a)−1, respectively. TR, FD and DTR experience statistically significant trends at the 0.05
significance level. According to the results of the Pettitt test, the mutation year of the four
temperature indices is 1991, which may be related to the urbanization development of
Jinan City. According to the results of the Pearson correlation analysis, TM and TR are
positively correlated with the impervious surfaces proportion, while FD and DTR are
negatively correlated with the impervious surfaces proportion. TR, FD and DTR show
statistically significant trends at the 0.05 significance level, and the correlation is
significant. It can be seen that there is a certain correlation between impervious surfaces
and temperature in Jinan City, and urbanization can lead to the change in relevant
temperature indices. The increase in impervious surfaces leads to an increase in Tm and
TR and a decrease in FD and DTR. Jinan City shows a relatively significant heat island
effect.

Table 3. The impact of urban expansion on temperature in Jinan City during the period of 1979–2017.

M-K Test Pettitt Test Pearson Correlation Analysis

Z Value Trends Sen’s Slope Change Point (Year) p Value Trends R Value p Value Correlation
Tm 1.44 Positive 0.05 °C·(10 a)−1 1991 <0.01 * 0.16 0.34 Positive
TR 2.73 Positive * 1.1 days·(10 a)−1 1991 <0.01 * 0.48 <0.01 Positive *
FD −3.6 Negative * −1.8 days·(10 a)−1 1991 <0.01 * −0.6 <0.01 Negative *
DTR −3 Negative * −0.1 °C·(10 a)−1 1991 <0.01 * −0.6 <0.01 Negative *
* Significant at the 0.05 level.

3.3. Precipitation Patterns in Jinan City

3.3.1. Characteristics of Precipitation
The annual mean precipitation during the period of 1979–2017 in Jinan shows an
increasing trend of fluctuation (Figure 6). According to the result of the M-K test, it does
not experience statistically significant trends. Table 4 shows the statistical characteristic of
precipitation in the intensive construction area and sparse construction area of Jinan City
during the period of 1979–2017. The wet season represents April to October, and the dry
season represents November to March. By comparison, it can be seen that the increased
value in the wet season in the intensive construction area is the largest, and it experienced
statistically significant trends.
Remote Sens. 2021, 13, 2989 10 of 17

Precipitation 5-years moving average Linear fit

1200

1000

Precipitation /mm
800

600

400 y = 4.5223x + 597.45

200

0
1979 1989 1999 2009
Time
Figure 6. The trend of precipitation in Jinan City during the period of 1979–2017.

Table 4. Characteristic of precipitation in wet season and dry season in Jinan City during the period of 1979–2017.

Sen’s Slope
Area Period Mean (mm) Range (mm) Z Value Trends
(mm/10 a)
wet season 603.24 258.87 to 947.19 2.23 Positive * 46.7
Intensive construction area
dry season 56.16 15.24 to 249.64 1.74 Positive 8.4
wet season 638.84 298.26 to 949.48 1.55 Positive 30.4
Sparse construction area
dry season 61.36 21.72 to 272.02 1.09 Positive 4.5
* Significant at the 0.05 level.

The duration and intensity of precipitation events in Jinan City from 1979 to 2017
were statistically analyzed (Table 5). It can be seen that the number of events with rainfall
time of less than 9 h increased, and the number of events with rainfall time of more than
10 h decreased, and all experienced statistically significant trends at the 0.05 significance
level. The rainfall intensity of events shows an increasing trend, and most of the events
show statistically significant trends. The abrupt change in events occurred from 1995 to
2002, which may be related to the urbanization development of Jinan City.

Table 5. Duration and intensity of precipitation events.

M-K Test Pettitt Test

Z Value Trends Sen’s Slope Change Point (Year) p Value Trends
N1–3h 5.09 Positive * 20.8 times·(10 a)−1 1997 <0.01 *
P1–3h 4.39 Positive * 0.3 mm·(1–3 h·10 a) −1 1995 <0.01 *
N4–6h 3.41 Positive * 5.4 times·(10 a)−1 2000 <0.01 *
P4–6h 4.72 Positive * 0.6 mm·(4–6 h·10 a)−1 1997 <0.01 *
N7–9h 5.2 Positive * 3.4 times·(10 a)−1 1997 <0.01 *
P7–9h 3.73 Positive * 1.9 mm·(7–9 h·10 a)−1 1996 <0.01 *
N10–12h −2.98 Negative * −0.9 times·(10 a)−1 1995 <0.01 *
P10–12h 3.48 Positive * 1.8 mm·(10–12 h·10 a) −1 1995 <0.01 *
N>12h −4.89 Negative * −5.2 times·(10 a)−1 1998 <0.01 *
P>12h 0.73 Positive 0.5 mm·(>12 h·10 a) −1 2002 0.18
* Significant at the 0.05 level.

3.3.2. Spatial and Temporal Variations of Precipitation Indices

Based on precipitation data, nine precipitation indices, namely, simple daily intensity
index (SDII), total wet-day precipitation (ATP), maximum 1-day precipitation (Rx1day),
very-wet-day precipitation (R95p), count of precipitation days (APD), moderate rain days
Remote Sens. 2021, 13, 2989 11 of 17

(R10), heavy rain days (R25), rainstorm days (R50) and consecutive dry days (CDD) were
selected to analyze the spatial distribution of precipitation in Jinan City during the period
of 1979–2017 (Figure 7). Most of the maximum values of precipitation indices are
concentrated in the southern mountainous area of Jinan City, indicating that topography
has a great influence on precipitation. The values of SDII, Rx1day, R50 and APD in the
central and southeastern intensive construction areas are large. The values of ATP, R95p,
R10 and R25 in the southeastern intensive construction areas are large. CDD shows an
increasing trend from south to north, but it is notably small in the central intensive
construction areas. The results show that the distribution of extreme precipitation is
related to the urbanization process in Jinan City.

Figure 7. Spatial distribution of precipitation indices in Jinan City during the period of 1979–2017.

The above nine extreme precipitation indices were also selected to analyze the spatial
variation of precipitation in Jinan City during the period of 1979–2017 (Figure 8). SDII,
Rx1day and R95p in the central, southeastern and northern intensive construction areas
show an increasing trend. ATP, APD and R10 in the central, southeastern intensive
construction areas show an increasing trend. R25 and R50 in the southeastern intensive
construction areas show an increasing trend. It is worth noting that the above indices
show a decreasing trend in most of the sparse construction areas, especially in the
southwest mountainous areas. On the contrary, CDD increases in the southwest sparse
Remote Sens. 2021, 13, 2989 12 of 17

construction areas and decreases in intensive construction areas. The results prove that
the increasing trend of extreme precipitation in the intensive construction areas is
significant, and the precipitation center has a tendency to transfer to the intensive
construction area.

Figure 8. Spatial variation trend of precipitation indices in Jinan City during the period of 1979–2017.

3.3.3. Effects of Urban expansion on Precipitation

In order to quantitatively analyze the impact of urban expansion on precipitation, the
value of precipitation indices in sparse construction areas is subtracted from that in intensive
construction areas every year so as to eliminate the impact of climate change on precipitation
(Table 6).
SDII, ATP, R95p, JSTS, R10 and R25 show statistically significant trends. According
to the results of the Pettitt test, the year of mutation of the nine precipitation indices
occurred from 1986 to 1993, which may be related to the urbanization development of
Jinan City. According to the results of the Pearson correlation analysis, most of the
precipitation indices are positively correlated with the impervious surfaces proportion,
while CDD is negatively correlated with the impervious surfaces proportion. SDII, ATP,
R95p, JSTS, R10 and R25 show statistically significant trends, and the correlation is
significant.
Remote Sens. 2021, 13, 2989 13 of 17

It can be observed that the magnitude (SDII, ATP, Rx1day and R95p) and frequency
(APD, R10, R25 and R50) of extreme precipitation show an increasing trend, and there is
a certain correlation between impervious surfaces and precipitation in Jinan City.
Urbanization can lead to change in relevant precipitation indices. Jinan City shows a
certain degree of the rain island effect.

Table 6. The impact of urban expansion on precipitation in Jinan City during 1979–2017.

M-K Test Pettitt Test Pearson Correlation Analysis

Change Point
Z Value Trends Sen’s Slope p Value Trends R Value p Value Correlation
(Year)
SDII 2.15 Positive * 0.2 mm·(d·10 a) −1 1990 0.02 * 0.34 <0.01 Positive *
ATP 3.19 Positive * 17.5 mm·(10 a)−1 1990 <0.01 * 0.53 <0.01 Positive *
Rx1day 1.38 Positive 1.6 mm·(10 a)−1 1986 0.11 0.23 0.15 Positive
R95p 2.15 Positive * 10 mm·(10 a)−1 1990 0.02 * 0.37 <0.01 Positive *
APD 2.08 Positive * 0.6 days·(10 a)−1 1993 <0.01 * 0.32 <0.01 Positive *
R10 2.44 Positive * 0.5 days·(10 a)−1 1990 0.01 * 0.41 <0.01 Positive *
R25 2.01 Positive * 0.2 days·(10 a)−1 1990 0.04 * 0.36 <0.01 Positive *
R50 1.9 Positive 0.1 days·(10 a)−1 1991 0.02 * 0.28 0.08 Positive
CDD −1.23 Negative −0.8 days·(10 a)−1 1987 0.21 −0.23 0.17 Negative
* Significant at the 0.05 level.

4. Discussion
The impact of urban expansion on localized rainfall events in Jinan City is explored
in this study. The results indicate that most of the differences in extreme climate indices
in the intensive construction area and sparse construction area remarkably increase and
have a strong correlation with impervious surfaces. It can be observed that urban
expansion has a degree of impact on the local climate pattern in Jinan City. The results are
generally consistent with the findings of previous studies. The study of Meng Dan et al.
on the rainstorm on 21 July in Beijing showed that the distribution between the rain island
and heat island was consistent [41]. The research of Cao Kun et al. showed that the trends
of temperature and precipitation in Shanghai were basically the same, and the rain island
effect was mainly concentrated in the flood season [42]. He Ping et al. studied the rain
island effect in Chuxiong City, Yunnan Province, and the results showed that the urban
area had a great influence on the intensity of rain island [43]. In addition, Kaufmann et al.
found that urbanization may lead to urban precipitation deficit in the dry season by
changing the underlying surface properties and local evaporation [44]. Their results
indicate that the changes in extreme precipitation in urban areas are related to urban
expansion.
The underlying mechanism of the rain island effect is as follows: urbanization can
alter the patterns of circulation by changing the local thermodynamic conditions, which
provides conditions favorable for the production of more extreme rainfall and rainstorm
events [45]. The underlying surface has undergone drastic changes in urban areas. In
horizontal landscapes, the permeable surfaces (such as cropland, forestland and
grassland) have converted to impervious surfaces (such as residential area, commercial
area and industrial area), and residential land witnessed the greatest growth [46,47]. In
vertical landscapes, bungalows have converted to multi-layer and high-rise buildings,
with high-rise buildings concentrated in the central urban areas and low-rise buildings
concentrated in the city edge [48,49]. Urbanization causes changes in the surface energy
balance, resulting in more sensible heat flux (SHF) and less maximum convective available
potential energy (MCAPE) [50]. The increased SHF leads to an increase in the surface
temperature and an elevated planetary boundary layer height (PBLH), leading to more
water vapor mixing in the atmosphere over urban areas [51]. The decrease in MCAPE and
Remote Sens. 2021, 13, 2989 14 of 17

increased surface roughness change the evolving convective activity, which leads to
stronger low-level convergence and convection [52,53]. In addition, exhaust emissions of
vehicles and buildings give off aerosols with condensation nuclei, which are conducive to
the nucleation of cloud droplets [54]. It can be observed that the urban rain island effect is
often accompanied by the urban heat island effect [55]. Some scholars have interpreted
the mechanism of urbanization on local extreme climates through surface observations
and climate models, as well as land–atmosphere coupling simulations under different
urbanization scenarios [56,57]. It is worth pointing out that the above research is consistent
with our study.
Extreme rainfall is frequently associated with climate change over this region. It is
weakened to the greatest extent by calculating the difference between the indices of the
intensive construction area and sparse construction area. We also analyze the
characteristics of climate indices in the intensive construction area and sparse construction
area separately. The results show that the variation trend of climate indices in the
intensive construction area is significant. To some extent, the changes in climate indices
are spatially consistent with the changes in in urban expansion. In addition, the
underlying surface factor of urbanization in this paper only considers impervious
surfaces, and the impact of various land use changes on the regional climate pattern also
needs to be further analyzed. In future research, a finer-resolution numerical model needs
to be developed to explore the physical mechanism of urban expansion on extreme
rainfall.

5. Conclusions
In this study, multiple climate indices are selected based on long-term series and
high-resolution precipitation, temperature and impervious surface data. The role of urban
expansion in the change of rainfall and temperature is comprehensively analyzed, and the
mechanism of the rain island effect is discussed. The main conclusions are as follows:
(1) Jinan City has experienced rapid urbanization since the 1978 economic reform. The
impervious surface areas increased from 311.68 km2 (3.04%) in 1978 to 2389.50 km2
(23.33%) in 2017, and the impervious surfaces expanded year by year. The
development of urbanization is mainly concentrated in the middle and southeast of
Jinan City (intensive construction area), while the development of urbanization is
relatively slow in the southern mountainous area, southwest and north of Jinan City
(sparse construction area).
(2) Urban expansion in Jinan City has a significant effect on temperature. On the one
hand, the spatial distribution of temperature indices in Jinan City during the period
of 1979–2017 is basically consistent with that of impervious surfaces, and the
temperature in the intensive construction area is generally higher than that in the
sparse construction area. On the other hand, urban expansion significantly decreases
FD and DTR by 1.8 days and 0.1 °C, respectively, every 10 years, while TR increases
by 1.1 days every 10 years. Moreover, there is a significant correlation between
temperature indices and impervious surfaces in Jinan City.
(3) Jinan City shows a certain degree of the rain island effect, which seems to be spatially
correlated with the urban heat island effect. The frequency of events of short-
duration precipitation increases, the rainfall intensity of events generally increases,
and the precipitation in the wet season significantly increases in the intensive
construction area. Urban expansion results in an increase of SDII, ATP, Rx1day, Rx95p,
APD, R10, R25 and R50, while a decrease in CDD can be observed. The tendency of
Jinan City’s precipitation regime center shifts toward the intensive construction area.
In addition, the development of urbanization results in an increase in precipitation
intensity and a decrease in the surface infiltration capacity in the intensive construction
area of Jinan City, which is also one of the main reasons for frequent rainstorm and
flood disasters in the central area of the city in recent years.
Remote Sens. 2021, 13, 2989 15 of 17

Author Contributions: Conceptualization, Y.Z. and Z.X.; methodology, Y.Z. and Z.X.; software,
Y.Z.; validation, Y.Z. and P.L.; formal analysis, Y.Z.; investigation, Y.Z.; resources, J.X. and Z.X.;
data curation, Y.Z. and Y.Q.; writing—original draft preparation, Y.Z.; writing—review and editing,
Y.Z. and L.Z.; visualization, Y.Z.; supervision, J.X.; project administration, J.X. and L.Z.; funding
acquisition, J.X. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding: This research was funded by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese
Academy of Sciences, (Grant No. XDA23040304) and the National Key R&D Program of China
(2017YFC1502701) and the Geology and Mineral Resources Survey Project: Ecological Configuration
and Global Strategy of China Water Resources (DD20190652).
Acknowledgments: We thank the A Big Earth Data Platform for Three Poles for providing the
climate data (http://poles.tpdc.ac.cn/) and the Finer Resolution Observation and Monitoring–Global
Land Cover for providing the impervious surface data (http://data.ess.tsinghua.edu.cn/).
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

References
1. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Urbanization Prospects: The 2018
Revision, (ST/ESA/SER.A/366); United Nations: New York, NY, USA, 2019.
2. Zhang, Y.; Pang, X.; Xia, J.; Shao, Q.; Yu, E.; Zhao, T.; She, D.; Sun, J.; Yu, J.; Pan, X.; et al. Regional Patterns of Extreme
Precipitation and Urban Signatures in Metropolitan Areas. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 2019, 124, 641–663.
3. Demuzere, M.; Oleson, K.; Coutts, A.M.; Pigeon, G.; Van Lipzig, N.P.M. Simulating the surface energy balance over two
contrasting urban environments using the Community Land Model Urban. Int. J. Clim. 2013, 33, 3182–3205.
4. Xia, J.; Zhang, Y.; Xiong, L.; He, S.; Wang, L.; Yu, Z. Opportunities and challenges of the Sponge City construction related to
urban water issues in China. Sci. China Earth Sci. 2017, 60, 652–658.
5. Cao, Q.; Yu, D.Y.; Georgescu, M.; Wu, J.G. Impacts of urbanization on summer climate in China: An assessment with coupled
land-atmospheric modeling. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 2016, 121, 10505–10521.
6. Li, H.; Liu, L.; Xu, Z. Greening Implication Inferred from Vegetation Dynamics Interacted with Climate Change and Human
Activities over the Southeast Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Remote. Sens. 2019, 11, 2421.
7. Liu, F.-H.; Xu, C.-Y.; Yang, X.-X.; Ye, X.-C. Controls of Climate and Land-Use Change on Terrestrial Net Primary Productivity
Variation in a Subtropical Humid Basin. Remote. Sens. 2020, 12, 3525.
8. Zhao, L.; Lee, X.; Smith, R.B.; Oleson, K. Strong contributions of local background climate to urban heat islands. Nat. Cell Biol.
2014, 511, 216–219.
9. Rizwan, A.M.; Dennis, L.Y.; Liu, C. A review on the generation, determination and mitigation of Urban Heat Island. J. Environ.
Sci. 2008, 20, 120–128.
10. Ward, K.; Lauf, S.; Kleinschmit, B.; Endlicher, W. Heat waves and urban heat islands in Europe: A review of relevant drivers.
Sci. Total. Environ. 2016, 569–570, 527–539.
11. Rozoff, C.M.; Cotton, W.R.; Adegoke, J.O. Simulation of St. Louis, Missouri, Land Use Impacts on Thunderstorms. J. Appl.
Meteorol. 2003, 42, 716–738.
12. Zhang, Y.; Wen, X.-Y.; Jang, C. Simulating chemistry–aerosol–cloud–radiation–climate feedbacks over the continental U.S.
Using the online-coupled Weather Research Forecasting Model with chemistry (WRF/Chem). Atmos. Environ. 2010, 44, 3568–
3582.
13. Dou, J.J.; Wang, Y.C.; Bornstein, R.; Miao, S.L. Observed Spatial Characteristics of Beijing Urban Climate Impacts on Summer
Thunder storms. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 2015, 54, 94–105.
14. Shepherd, J.M.; Burian, S.J. Detection of Urban-Induced Rainfall Anomalies in a Major Coastal City. Earth Interact. 2003, 7, 1–17.
15. Ganeshan, M.; Murtugudde, R.; Imhoff, M.L. A multi-city analysis of the UHI-influence on warm season rainfall. Urban Clim.
2013, 6, 1–23.
16. Miao, S.; Chen, F.; Li, Q.; Fan, S. Impacts of Urban Processes and Urbanization on Summer Precipitation: A Case Study of Heavy
Rainfall in Beijing on 1 August 2006. J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim. 2011, 50, 806–825.
17. Yang, L.; Tian, F.; Smith, J.A.; Hu, H. Urban signatures in the spatial clustering of summer heavy rainfall events over the Beijing
metropolitan region. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 2014, 119, 1203–1217.
18. Li, S.; Ma, J. Impact of urbanization on precipitation in Beijing area. J. Meteorol. Sci. 2011, 31, 414–421.
19. Liu, J.; Xia, J.; She, D.; Li, L.; Wang, Q.; Zou, L. Evaluation of Six Satellite-Based Precipitation Products and Their Ability for
Capturing Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation Events over a Climate Transition Area in China. Remote. Sens. 2019, 11, 1477.
20. Segoni, S.; Caleca, F. Definition of Environmental Indicators for a Fast Estimation of Landslide Risk at National Scale. Land 2021,
10, 621.
21. Zope, P.; Eldho, T.; Jothiprakash, V. Impacts of land use–land cover change and urbanization on flooding: A case study of
Oshiwara River Basin in Mumbai, India. Catena 2016, 145, 142–154.
22. Li, G.R.; Lei, Y.L.; Yao, H.J.; Wu, S.M.; Ge, J.P. The influence of land urbanization on landslides: An empirical estima tion based
on Chinese provincial panel data. Sci. Total Environ. 2017, 595, 681–690.
Remote Sens. 2021, 13, 2989 16 of 17

23. Shepherd, J.M. A Review of Current Investigations of Urban-Induced Rainfall and Recommendations for the Future. Earth
Interact. 2005, 9, 1–27.
24. Yang, L.; Smith, J.A.; Baeck, M.L.; Bou-Zeid, E.; Jessup, S.M.; Tian, F.Q.; Hu, H.P. Impact of Urbanization on Heavy Convective
Precipitation under Strong Large-Scale Forcing: A Case Study over the Milwaukee-Lake Michigan Region. J. Hydrometeorol.
2014, 15, 261–278.
25. Ramamurthy, P.; Bou-Zeid, E. Contribution of impervious surfaces to urban evaporation. Water Resour. Res. 2014, 50, 2889–2902.
26. Kalnay, E.; Cai, M. Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate. Nature 2003, 423, 528–531.
27. Yang, Y.-J.; Wu, B.-W.; Shi, C.-E.; Zhang, J.-H.; Li, Y.-B.; Tang, W.-A.; Wen, H.-Y.; Zhang, H.-Q.; Shi, T. Impacts of Urbanization
and Station-relocation on Surface Air Temperature Series in Anhui Province, China. Pure Appl. Geophys. 2012, 170, 1969–1983.
28. Li, P.; Xu, Z.; Ye, C.; Ren, M.; Chen, H.; Wang, J.; Song, S. Assessment on IMERG V06 Precipitation Products Using Rain Gauge
Data in Jinan City, Shandong Province, China. Remote. Sens. 2021, 13, 1241.
29. Yang, K.; He, J. China meteorological forcing dataset (1979–2018). A Big Earth Data Platform for Three Poles. Natl. Tibet. Plateau
Data Cent. 2019, 10, doi:10.11888/AtmosphericPhysics.tpe.249369.file.
30. He, J.; Yang, K.; Tang, W.; Lu, H.; Qin, J.; Chen, Y.; Li, X. The first high-resolution meteorological forcing dataset for land process
studies over China. Sci. Data 2020, 7, 1–11.
31. Gong, P.; Li, X.; Zhang, W. 40-Year (1978–2017) human settlement changes in China reflected by impervious surfaces from
satellite remote sensing. Sci. Bull. 2019, 64, 756–763.
32. Chang, X.; Xu, Z.; Zhao, G.; Cheng, T.; Song, S. Spatial and temporal variations of precipitation during 1979–2015 in Jinan City,
China. J. Water Clim. Chang. 2017, 9, 540–554.
33. Wei, W.; Shi, Z.; Yang, X.; Wei, Z.; Liu, Y.; Zhang, Z.; Ge, G.; Zhang, X.; Guo, H.; Zhang, K.; et al. Recent Trends of Extreme
Precipitation and Their Teleconnection with Atmospheric Circulation in the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region, China, 1960–
2014. Atmosphere 2017, 8, 83.
34. Feng, R.; Yu, R.; Zheng, H.; Gan, M. Spatial and temporal variations in extreme temperature in Central Asia. Int. J. Clim. 2017,
38, e388–e400.
35. Zhang, J.; Shen, X.; Wang, B. Changes in precipitation extremes in Southeastern Tibet, China. Quat. Int. 2015, 380–381, 49–59.
36. Deng, S.L.; Chen, T.; Yang, N.; Qu, L.A.; Li, M.C.; Chen, D. Spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall and drought
characteristics across the Pearl River basin. Sci. Total. Environ. 2018, 619, 28–41.
37. Wang, R.H.; Li, C. Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation trends during 1961–2010 in Hubei province, central China. Theor.
Appl. Climatol. 2016, 124, 385–399.
38. Sen, P.K. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 1968, 63, 1379.
39. Mallakpour, I.; Villarini, G. A simulation study to examine the sensitivity of the Pettitt test to detect abrupt changes in mean.
Hydrol. Sci. J. 2015, 61, 245–254.
40. Holgado-Tello, F.P.; Chacon-Moscoso, S.; Barbero-Garcia, I.; Vila-Abad, E. Polychoric versus Pearson correlations in exploratory
and confirmatory factor analysis of ordinal variables. Qual. Quant. 2010, 44, 153–166.
41. Meng, D.; Gong, H.L.; Li, X.J.; Yang, S.Y. Yang s. Spatiotemporal distribution of the rainstorm and the relationship between
urban heat island and urban rain island in Beijing on July 21, 2012. Remote. Sens. Land Resour. 2017, 29, 178–185.
42. Cao, K.; Ge, Z.X.; Xue, M.; Song, Y.Y. Analysis of Urban Rain Island Effect in Shanghai and Its Changing Trend. Water Resour.
Power 2009, 27, 31–33.
43. He, P.; Jiang, Y.P.; Li, J.X.; Zhang, Q.Y. Influence of urbanization on urban rain island effect of Chuxiong City on Yunnan Plateau
in recent years. Arid. Land Geogr. 2017, 40, 933–941.
44. Kaufmann, R.K.; Seto, K.C.; Schneider, A.; Liu, Z.T.; Zhou, L.M.; Wang, W.L. Climate response to rapid urban growth: Evidence
of a human-induced precipitation deficit. J. Clim. 2007, 20, 2299–2306.
45. Zhang, H.; Wu, C.; Chen, W.; Huang, G. Effect of urban expansion on summer rainfall in the Pearl River Delta, South China. J.
Hydrol. 2019, 568, 747–757.
46. Qi, S.Z.; Guo, J.M.; Jia, R.; Sheng, W.F. Land use change induced ecological risk in the urbanized karst region of North China:
A case study of Jinan city. Environ. Earth Sci. 2020, 79, 1–8.
47. Li, P.J.; Zuo, D.P.; Xu, Z.X.; Gao, X.X.; Peng, D.Z.; Kan, G.Y.; Sun, W.C.; Pang, B.; Yang, H. Impact of urbanization on variability
of annual and flood season precipitation in a typical city of North China. Hydrol. Res. 2020, 51, 1150–1169.
48. Xue, C.; Zheng, X.Q.; Zhang, B.; Yuan, Z.Y. Evolution of a multidimensional architectural landscape under urban regeneration:
A case study of Jinan, China. Ecol. Indic. 2015, 55, 12–22.
49. Kong, F.; Nakagoshi, N. Spatial-temporal gradient analysis of urban green spaces in Jinan, China. Landsc. Urban Plan. 2006, 78,
147–164.
50. Zhang, Y.; Smith, J.A.; Luo, L.; Wang, Z.; Baeck, M.L. Urbanization and Rainfall Variability in the Beijing Metropolitan Region.
J. Hydrometeorol. 2014, 15, 2219–2235.
51. Yu, M.; Miao, S.; Li, Q. Synoptic analysis and urban signatures of a heavy rainfall on 7 August 2015 in Beijing. J. Geophys. Res.
Atmos. 2017, 122, 65–78.
52. Changnon, S.A.; Westcott, N.E. Heavy rainstorms in Chicago: Increasing frequency, altered impacts, and future implications. J.
Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 2002, 38, 1467–1475.
53. Bornstein, R.; Lin, Q. Urban heat islands and summertime convective thunderstorms in Atlanta: Three case studies. Atmospheric
Environ. 2000, 34, 507–516.
Remote Sens. 2021, 13, 2989 17 of 17

54. Sailor, D.J. A review of methods for estimating anthropogenic heat and moisture emissions in the urban environment. Int. J.
Clim. 2011, 31, 189–199.
55. Ramanathan, V.; Crutzen, P.J.; Kiehl, J.T.; Rosenfeld, D. Atmosphere—Aerosols, climate, and the hydrological cycle. Science
2001, 294, 2119–2124.
56. Song, X.M.; Zhang, J.Y.; AghaKouchak, A.; Sen Roy, S.; Xuan, Y.Q.; Wang, G.Q.; He, R.M.; Wang, X.J.; Liu, G.S. Rapid
urbanization and changes in spatiotemporal charac teristics of precipitation in Beijing metropolitan area. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.
2014, 119, 11250–11271.
57. Bounoua, L.; Zhang, P.; Mostovoy, G.; Thome, K.J.; Masek, J.G.; Imhoff, M.L.; Shepherd, M.; Quattrochi, D.; Santanello, J.A.;
Silva, J.; et al. Impact of urbanization on US surface climate. Environ. Res. Lett. 2015, 10, 084010.