Biostatistics Assignment One

QUESTION ONE [1]
The length of human pregnancies from conception to birth approximates a normal distribution
with a mean of 266 days and a standard deviation of 16 days. What probability of all pregnancies
will last between 240 and 270 days?
Compute z-scores for each value of x
Z= (x-μ)/σ
= 240-266/16
= -1.625
Z= (x-μ)/σ
= 270-266/16
= 0.25
Look up probabilities in Table A
P (z < -1.62) = 0.0030
P (z < -0.50) = 0.3085
Subtract to get the type III central probability
P (240 < x < 270)
= P (-2.75 < z < -0.50)
= 0.3085-0.0030
p = 0.3055
QUESTION TWO [2]
2 A survey conducted among Cavendish University students found that average fasting blood
sugar level of was 108. A random sample of 225 clinic patients at UTH yields a mean blood
sugar level of 119 (with a sample variance = 100). Test the hypothesis that μ blood sugar level is
equal to 108. (15 marks)
a. What is the hypothesis set for a two-tailed test?
 H0: Null Hypothesis: mean = 108(This is what we want to prove.)

 H1: Alternative Hypothesis: mean <> 108
 Rejection region: Z <= - Z2.5 and Z>=Z2.5 (assuming 5% significance level, split 2.5 each
on either side).
 Z = (sample mean – mean) / (sample variance / square root (no. of samples)) = (119 –
108) / (100/(15) =
 11/6.6 = 1.6
This calculated Z value falls between the two limits defined by: - Z 2.5 = -1.6 and Z2.5 = 1.6.
This concludes that there is sufficient evidence to conclude that the average blood sugar level is
equal to 108. Therefore, the null hypothesis cannot be rejected. Alternatively, the p-value = P
(Z< -1.6) +P(Z >1.6) = 2 * 0.1056 = 0.2112 = 21.12%, which is greater than 0.05 or 5%, leads
to the same conclusion
b. Find the estimated standard error
The standard error of the mean is estimated by the standard deviation of the observations divided
by the square root of the sample size.
SD=square root of variance = 10
Sample size = 225
Estimated standard error = 10/15
Therefore the estimated standard error= +/-0.6
c. What decision should make at a significance level of 0.05

At significance level of 0.05 indicates a 5% risk of concluding that a difference exists when there
is no actual difference because lower significance levels indicate that you require stronger
evidence before you will reject the null hypothesis.
QUESTION THREE [3]
3. Assume blood-glucose levels in a population of adult women are normally distributed with
mean 90 mg/dL and standard deviation 38 mg/dL. (20 Marks)
a. Suppose the “abnormal range” were defined to be glucose levels outside of 1.5 standard
deviation of the mean (i.e., either at least 1.5 standard deviation above the mean, or at least 1.5
standard deviation below mean). Individuals with abnormal levels will be retested. What
percentage of individuals would be called “abnormal” and need to be retested? What is the
normal range of glucose levels in units of mg/dL?
Solution: This is same as asking what percentage of standard normal distribution is below z=-1.5
or above z=1.5.
For standard normal the probability less than -1.5 is 0.0668.
By the symmetry of the distribution the probability above 1.5 is the same.
So answer is
2*0.0668=13.36%.
b. Suppose the abnormal range were defined to be glucose levels outside of 2 standard deviations
of the mean. What percentage of individuals would now be called “abnormal”? What is the
normal range of glucose levels (mg/dL)?
Solution: By symmetry there will be 2% below the mean minus standard deviations.
For the standard normal we must take:
z=-2.054 to have 2% of the probability to the left.
So the answer is from -2.054 to 2.054

QUESTION FOUR [4]
4. The duration of time from first exposure to HIV infection to AIDS diagnosis is called the
incubation period. The incubation periods of a random sample of 7 HIV infected individuals is
given below (in years):
12.0 9.5 13.5 7.210.5 6.3 9.5 12.5
a. Calculate the sample mean.
x̄ = (Σ xi) / n
= Mean = (12.0 + 9.5 + 13.5 + 7.2 + 10.5 + 6.3 + 12.5) / 7 =
71
Sample mean = = 10.21years
7
b. Calculate the sample median.

Sort:
6.3, 7.2, 9.5, 10.5, 12.0, 12.5, 13.5
Median = (n + 1) / 2 = 8/2 = 4th value
Sample median (sample) = 10.5 years
c. Calculate the sample standard deviation.

SD = √(∑(x−¯x)2 /n-1)
SD = √(∑(12.0-10.22)2+(9.5-10.22)2+(13.5-10.22)2+(12.5-10.22)2+(7.2-10.22)2+(10.5-
10.22)2+(6.3-10.22)2/7-1
SD= 2.71
d. If the number 6.3 above was changed to 1.5, what would happen to the sample mean,
median, and standard deviation? State whether each would increase, decrease, or remain
the same.
New Mean = (12.0 + 9.5 + 13.5 + 7.2 + 10.5 +

1.5+ 12.5) / 7
New mean = 9.52 therefore mean decrease
Sort:
1.5, 7.2, 9.5, 10.5, 12.0, 12.5, 13.5

Median = (n + 1) / 2 = 8/2 = 4th value
Median = 10.5 therefore median remain the same
SD = √(∑(x−¯x)2 /n-1)
SD=√(∑(12.0-10.22)2+(9.5-10.22)2+(13.5-10.22)2+(12.5-10.22)2+(7.2-10.22)2+(10.5-
10.22)2+(1.5-10.22)2/7-1
SD= 4.17: therefore the standard deviation increase
QUESTION FIVE [5]
5. A researcher wishes to estimate the proportion of adults who have high-speed Internet access.
How large a sample should be obtained by her if she wishes the estimate to be within 0.04 with
95% confidence and she uses a previous estimate of 0.54?
Margin of error (ME) = 0.04

critical value (CV) for a 95% confidence is 1.96
sample size (n) = (CV^2 * p * (1-p)) / ME^2
a) n = (1.96^2 * 0.54 * (1-0.54)) / 0.04^2

= 599.2896 is approximately 600
b) when proportion is not known use p = 0.50

n = ( 1.96^2 * 0.50 * (1-0.50) ) / 0.04^2
= 600.25 is approximately 601
QUESTION SIX [6]
Define the following terms
a. Sampling Error - A sampling error is a statistical error that occurs when an analyst
does not select a sample that represents the entire population of data.
b. Representative Sample- A representative sample is a subset of a population that seeks
to accurately reflect the characteristics of the larger group
c. Standard Error - The standard error (SE) of a statistic is the standard deviation of its
sampling distribution or an estimate of that standard deviation.
d. Margin of Error - The margin of error is a statistic expressing the amount of random
sampling error in the results of a survey
e. Variance - Variance is a statistical measurement that is used to determine the spread of
numbers in a data set with respect to the average value or the mean

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QUESTION ONE [1]

Compute z-scores for each value of x

Look up probabilities in Table A

P (z < -1.62) = 0.0030

P (z < -0.50) = 0.3085

Subtract to get the type III central probability

P (240 < x < 270)

= P (-2.75 < z < -0.50)

a. What is the hypothesis set for a two-tailed test?

 H0: Null Hypothesis: mean = 108(This is what we want to prove.)

b. Find the estimated standard error

SD=square root of variance = 10

Sample size = 225

Estimated standard error = 10/15

Therefore the estimated standard error= +/-0.6

c. What decision should make at a significance level of 0.05

QUESTION THREE [3]

For standard normal the probability less than -1.5 is 0.0668.

For the standard normal we must take:

z=-2.054 to have 2% of the probability to the left.

So the answer is from -2.054 to 2.054

12.0 9.5 13.5 7.210.5 6.3 9.5 12.5

a. Calculate the sample mean.

b. Calculate the sample median.

c. Calculate the sample standard deviation.

New Mean = (12.0 + 9.5 + 13.5 + 7.2 + 10.5 +

1.5, 7.2, 9.5, 10.5, 12.0, 12.5, 13.5

QUESTION FIVE [5]

Margin of error (ME) = 0.04

a) n = (1.96^2 * 0.54 * (1-0.54)) / 0.04^2

b) when proportion is not known use p = 0.50

Define the following terms

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