Morgan Stanley Latin America Executive Conference: January 5-7, 2011, Miami
Morgan Stanley Latin America Executive Conference: January 5-7, 2011, Miami
Morgan Stanley Latin America Executive Conference: January 5-7, 2011, Miami
Disclaimer
The information contained in this presentation may include statements which constitute forward-looking statements, within the meaning of Section 27A of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Such forward-looking statements involve a certain degree of risk and uncertainty with respect to business, financial, trend, strategy and other forecasts, and are based on assumptions, data or methods that, although considered reasonable by the company at the time, may turn out to be incorrect or imprecise, or may not be possible to realize. The company gives no assurance that expectations disclosed in this presentation will be confirmed. Prospective investors are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties, and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forwardlooking statements, due to a variety of factors, including, but not limited to, the risks of international business and other risks referred to in the companys filings with the CVM and SEC. The company does not undertake, and specifically disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, which speak only for the date on which they are made.
Agenda
1
The Company
2
Market Positioning
3
Pulp and Paper Market
4
3Q10 Financials
5
Synergies
6
Sustainability
7
Fibria's 1st Year
8
Corporate Restructuring
The Company
Shareholder Structure
BNDESPar
Free Float
29.34%
30.42%(1)
40.24%(2)
50.0%
50.0%
51.0%
Veracel
Conpacel
Portocel
(1) (2)
Position as of November 30, 2010. BNDESPar has 21% linked to a Shareholders Agreement with Votorantim Industrial S.A. during the first 3 years and 10.9% during the following 2 years. Free Float 40.17% + Treasury 0.07%
Shareholders Committee
Board of Directors(1)
9 Members: 20% Independent Chairman: Jos Luciano Penido CEO: Carlos Aguiar
Board Advisory Committees(1) Policies approved by the Board: - Corporate Governance - Information Disclosure - Stocks Trading Adoption of international accounting practices (IFRS)
Audit and Risks Personnel and Remuneration Finance Sustainability
Executive Officers
Market Positioning
A Winning Player
Superior Asset Combination Competitive Strengths
Forest to Port Integration Through Efficient Logistics Unique Forestry Management: Advanced Forestry Techniques and Short Harvest Cycle
Pulp production capacity: 5.4 million t/year Paper production capacity: 358 thousand t/year Total area: 1.0 million ha (1) / Eucalyptus plantation: 585 thousand ha (1) 4 pulp plants, 2 paper plants and operation of 3 port terminals High yield in eucalyptus production (avg 45 m3/ha/year) and certified forests Short harvest cycle: 6 years vs. 25-70 years in Scandinavia
(1) Data
as of September 30, 2010. Does not include partnership program which represents 124 thousand ha.
5,400
Bleached Hardwood Kraft Pulp (BHKP) Bleached Softwood Kraft Pulp (BSKP) Unbleached Kraft Pulp (UKP) Mechanical
34%
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
(1) Market Share estimated considering 2010 estimated demand. (2) PYRY
Wood
393 296 266
118 133
Others
255
151
2493
147
243 155
238
284
104
102
22% 32%
10 million t
(1) (2)
Market Share estimated considering 2009 nominal capacity Source: Hawkins Wright Estimate 2Q10 (3) Fibria 3Q10 Cash cost without downtimes
10
Global Footprint
Customized pulp products to specific paper grades Sole supplier to key customers focused on eucalyptus pulp to the tissue market The top 10 customers represent, on average, 65% of sales Over 20 years of relationship with many of the main clients Global contracts
P&W Specialty
18%
Tissue
25%
57%
Europe 41%
Hong Kong
Brazil 12%
Headquarters
Subsidiaries
Representative offices
NY004GAK_1.wor NY004GAK_1.wor
(1)
11
Modern Plants
Aracruz
Capacity: 2.300 Technical age: 9
Trs Lagoas II Trs Lagoas Capacity: 1.5 million t Forest base need: 150 thousand ha - TLS I surplus: 30 thousand ha Social-environmental licensing process initiated Startup expected for 2014
2.000
1.500
Jacare
Capacity: 1.100 Technical age : 5
1,500
(1)
10,650
1,500
Aracruz IV Losango
1,500
Trs Lagoas II Veracel II
Russia
USA
40
30
20
10
Veracel (1)
Capacity: 550 Technical age : 3
Brownfield
Greenfield
Expansion
12
Forest Competitiveness
Fibria : Forest Competitiveness
45
14
30 - 40 years
11 10
25
25
25
15
15 - 25 years
10 - 12 years
12 - 15 years
8 5
Brazil (eucalyptus)
Indonesia
S.Africa
Chile
Portugal / Spain
USA / Canada
Finland / Sweden
70's
80's
90's
00's
Yield (m3/ha/year)
Source: ABRAF, STCP, Poyry and Fibria. Note: Pulp trees differ depending on the country: Indonesia acacia, S.Africa tropical and temperate eucalyptus, Chile temperate eucalyptus, Portugal/Spain temperate eucalyptus, USA/Canada aspen, Finland/Sweden betula.
13
clone
20 months growth
14
15
82%
days
82% Oct-08 -08 79% Nov-08 -08 91% Dec-08 -08 77% Jan-09 -09 88% Feb-09 -09 92% Mar-09 -09 Apr-09 -09 86% May-09 09 Jun-09 -09 Jul-09 -09 Aug-09 -09 Sep-09 -09 Oct-09 -09 Nov-09 -09 Dec-09 -09 86% Jan-10 -10 Feb-10 -10 89% Mar-10 -10 Apr-10 -10 87% May-10 10 Jun-10 -10 88% Jul-10 -10 83% Aug-10 -10 Sep-10 -10 87% Nov-10 Oct-10 -10 Nov-10 -10 93% 92% 95% 97% 10 Nov-05 May-06 20 30 40 50
Source: PPPC World 20 Sep-08 -08 Nov-06 Mai-07 95% Source: PPPC World 20 Total Chemical Market Pulp Nov-07 92% 90% 90% May-08 Nov-08 96% May-09 95% Nov-09 96%
May-10
98%
33
days
15 20 25 30 35
92%
90%
95%
91%
Nov-05
Source: Utipulp May-06 Nov-06 Mai-07 Nov-07 May-08 Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 May-10 Nov-10
83%
81%
Aug-09 09 Sep-09 09
89%
88%
Oct-09 09 Nov-09 09 Dec-09 09 Jan-10 10 Feb-10 10 Mar-10 10 Apr-10 10 May-10 10 Jun-10 10 Jul-10 10 Aug-10 10 84% 82%
19
16
Sep-10 10
Industry Outlook
Market pulp: world demand growth (%)
9% 6% 12% 9%
419 368
Average (1) 132 ktons
-1%
192
242
229
134 132
153 98 65 93
198
224
100
125
Total
North America
Europe
Latin America
Japan
-27% China
Aug-10 10 10 Sep-10 10 Oct-10 08 Nov-08 Dec-08 08 09 Oct-09 09 Nov-09 09 Dec-09 10 Jan-10 10 Apr-10 10 May-10 08 Aug-08 08 Sep-08 09 May-09 09 Jun-09 09 Aug-09 Sep-09 09 08 May-08 10 Nov-10 08 Jul-08 09 Mar-09 09 Apr-09 09 Jul-09 09 Jan-09 09 Feb-09 10 Feb-10 10 Mar-10 10 Jun-10 10 Jul-10 08 Jun-08 08 Out-08
10M2010 x 10M2009
Source: PPPC World 20 Chemical Market Pulp
(1)
450
350
500 400 300 Jan-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Mar-08 Nov-08 Mar-09 Nov-09 Mar-10 Nov-10
250
CRB
17
0.3 Others
2% p.a.
28.3
-0.1
Others(2)
28.0
24.8 Asia
4.5% p.a.
+3.5 MT Demand
2009 BHKP Demand Demand
2009 BHKP
+2.1 MT Supply
Others
2012 BHKP 2012 BHKP 2012 BHKP 2009 BHKP Demand Supply Demand Demand
Asia
Europe
USA
Asia
Europe
USA
Others
OR(3) 94%
OR(3) 89%
(1)
18
(1)
19
10.000
+59%
2008
Eucaplyptus
Hardwood
Total
21%
6.000
12% 10%
4.000
10% 16%
1.000 0 Indonesia
+51% +12%
2.000
+117% +38% +151% +142% +2% 9% 7% 11%
9%
10% 13%
Russia
Chile
BHKP Total
Thailand
Uruguay
Canada
Others
Brazil
USA
Brazil is the leading exporter of BHKP to China, accounting to approximately 41% of China's total imports in 2009.
Between 2005 and 2009, the Chinese market share of eucalyptus shipments increased by 17 p.p. (total market pulp: +11 p.p.)
(1)
(2)
Source: PPPC W20. Coverage for chemical market pulp is 80% of world capacity.
20
in million tons
120 100 80 60
kg/person/yr
70 60 50 40
Kg / capita
30 25 20 15
30 40 20 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
10
20 10 0
5 0 North America West Europe Japan Oceania LatAm East Europe China Africa
Consumption
Production
Per Capita
Chinese consumption of high quality tissue paper has a huge potential upside, as GDP per capita increases.
(1)
(2)
Source: RISI
21
3Q10 Financials
22
3Q10 Performance
Key figures
3Q10 Pulp Production (000 t) Pulp Sales (000 t) Paper Production (000 t) Paper Sales (000 t) 1,334 1,195 79 105 2Q10 1,208 1,253 79 87 3Q09 1,428 1,276 93 110 3Q10 vs 2Q10 10% -5% 20% 3Q10 vs 3Q09 -7% -6% -15% -5%
Net Revenue (R$ million) Adjusted EBITDA (R$ million) EBITDA Margin (%) Financial Income (R$ million) Net Income (R$ million)
22%
27%
Europe
Brazil/Others
426
1Q10
Source: Fibria
2Q10
2Q10 w/ downtimes
2Q10
3Q10
23
Debt
Debt indicators
Average maturity(2) (months)
75
(R$ million)
3Q10
2Q10
3Q09
70 52
4,7 3,9
Jun 10
(3) LTM
Sep 10
(1) Includes
(2) Does
EBITDA
5%
2.8 2.0 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.6 1.5 0.8 1.6 1.0 1.1 1.1 2.2
6% 36%
26%
14%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
(4)
2014
2015
2016-2020
Sep 09
(4)Amortization
Sep 10
(5)
Local
Foreign
24
The amount: R$1.5 billion for Conpacel + KSR Conpacel: pulp and paper plant with annual production capacity around 390,000 tons of paper and approximately 650,000 tons of pulp and land with an approximate owned area of 76,000 hectares (71,000 hectares of plantation - 53,000 hectares of owned areas and 18,000 hectares of leased areas);
Proposal in line with companys expectation The Proposal also contemplates the acquisition of the installations and other assets of the KSR paper distribution operation; The closing of the acquisition of the Conpacel Assets shall occur until January 31, 2011 and until February 28, 2011 for KSR Assets.
25
Historical Ratings
S&P
Aracruz VCP (2007-08) / Fibria (2009-10) Aracruz
Moodys
VCP (2007-08) / Fibria (2009-10)
2005
BBB-
N.A.
2005
Baa3
N.A.
2006
BBB-
N.A.
2006
Baa3
N.A.
2007
BBB-
BBB
2007
Baa2
Baa3
2008
BBB
BBB
2008
Baa2
Baa3
2009
BB
BB
2009
Ba2
Ba1
2010
N.A.
BB
2010
N.A.
Ba1
26
Synergies
27
Synergies
Net Present Value of Synergies (R$ billion)
Taxes
11% 16%
SG&A
23%
Forest
4.3
4.5
2.3
2012
2013
2014
28
Sustainability
29
Sustainability
Fibria was chosen for the most important sustainability indexes: Dow Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI) and Bovespa Corporate Sustainability Index (ISE)
The Company is committed to control and report its Carbon and Water Footprint when servicing each customer
Fibria has defined 5 sustainability goals: Improve its relationship with Communities Social Outreach of the Forest Partnership Programs Recover the Biodiversity in Natural Reserves Strengthen the Relationship with Civil Society Obtain the Certification of all Forest Areas
30
31
Operating Excellence
Financial Turnaround
- EBITDA margin increased to 40% - One of the lowest cash costs in the industry:
US$249/t
- Synergies: R$2.4 billion (NPV) captured - Personnel, system and process integration
Liquidity event: Guaba Unit sale Access to capital markets Early settlement of derivatives debt Reduced leverage Extended debt maturities
Corporate Governance
Expansion
Migration to Novo Mercado segment Corporate Governance, Information Disclosure and Securities Trading policies approved by the Board Adoption of international accounting practices (IFRS) Included in the DJSI and ISI sustainability indexes Best IR program in the sector in Latin America by Institutional Investor Magazine 2010
Trs Lagoas II: start up slated for 2014 Veracel II: Negotiations with partner in progress
32
Corporate Restructuring
33
Corporate Restructuring
Event Acquisition by VCP of additional 28% of Aracruz common shares VCP Capital Increase VCP conversion of prefered into common shares Tender Offer for Aracruz common shareholders Incorporation proposal for the 0.1347 ratio Merger of Aracruz shares into VCP approval Shareholderes Agreement - VID and BNDES End of withdrawal rights period End of Aracruz trading Fibria trading start (Bovespa: FIBR3 / NYSE: FBR) Approval of the merger of Aracruz into Fibria Migration to Novo Mercado listing segment at BM&FBovespa
Date Jan 20, 2009 Apr 14, 2009 Jun 12, 2009 Jul 02, 2009 Aug 24, 2009 Aug 24, 2009 Oct 29, 2009 Nov 12, 2009 Nov 17, 2009 Nov 18, 2009 Dec 22, 2009 May 20, 2010
34
Investor Relations Team: Website: www.fibria.com.br/ir E-mail: ir@fibria.com.br Tel.: +55 (11) 2138-4565
35