BTG Pactual 2011 Latam Ceo Conference: October, 2011
BTG Pactual 2011 Latam Ceo Conference: October, 2011
BTG Pactual 2011 Latam Ceo Conference: October, 2011
October, 2011
Disclaimer
The information contained in this presentation may include statements which constitute forwardlooking statements, within the meaning of Section 27A of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Such forward-looking statements involve a certain degree of risk and uncertainty with respect to business, financial, trend, strategy and other forecasts, and are based on assumptions, data or methods that, although considered reasonable by the company at the time, may turn out to be incorrect or imprecise, or may not be possible to realize. The company gives no assurance that expectations disclosed in this presentation will be confirmed. Prospective investors are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties, and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forwardlooking statements, due to a variety of factors, including, but not limited to, the risks of international business and other risks referred to in the companys filings with the CVM and SEC. The company does not undertake, and specifically disclaims any obligation to update any forwardlooking statements, which speak only for the date on which they are made.
The Company
Shareholder Structure
BNDESPar
30.42(1)
(1) (2)
Position as of August 31, 2011. BNDESPar has 21% linked to a Shareholders Agreement with Votorantim Industrial S.A. during the first 3 years and 10.9% during the following 2 years. Free Float 40.17% + Treasury 0.07%
Shareholders Meeting
Fiscal Council
Board of Directors
Corporate governance
Information disclosure Stock trading
Executive Officers
A Winning Player
Superior Asset Combination Main Figures(1)
Port Terminal
Pulp Unit
Source: Fibria (1) Last Twelve Months as of 2Q11. (2) As of June 30, 2011, including 50% of Veracel and excluding forest partnership areas (124 thousand ha).
Fibrias Strategy
5,250
Bleached Softwood Kraft Pulp (BSKP) Bleached Hardwood Kraft Pulp (BHKP) Unbleached Kraft Pulp (UKP) Mechanical
West Fraser
Canfor Cenibra
31%
69%
Other Eucalyptus Pulp producers: 11 million t
(1) (2)
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
RISI and PPPC: considers 2010 capacity Hawkins Wright January 2011
11%
21%
584 120
570 70
540 39
534
41
508 85
498 42
459 33
416 57
385
69
361 51 310
343 55 288
464
500
501
493
423
456
426
359
316
33%
700
Cash cost (US$/t) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 5000 (1) (2) PPPC World Chemical Market Pulp Global 100 Report December 2010 (World Demand by Grade) Source: Hawkins Wright as July 2011 Report and Fibria 2Q11 10000 15000 Capacity ('000s t) Bleached hardwood kraft
10 million t
20000
25000
30000
10
Cost Structure
Global producers have been impacted by: Wood: cost of land and minimum wage growth above inflation Chemicals / energy / water: global demand for commodities add pressure on main raw materials On top of that, Brazilian producers have also been impacted by: Freight: low governmental investment in infra-structure (ports, roads, etc) and higher oil prices Labor: cost in Brazil in dollar terms is higher than in some developed countries
11
Global Presence
Fibrias Commercial Strategy
Differentiation: Customized pulp products to specific paper grades Sole supplier to key customers focused on eucalyptus pulp to the tissue market The top 10 customers represent, on average, 70% of sales Over 20 years of relationship with many of the main clients Global contracts
P&W 23% Tissue 58% Speciali ties 19%
N.America
29%
Europe
46%
Nyon Miami
Csomd
14%
Asia
Hong Kong
L.America
11%
So Paulo
Fibria Offices
12
23%
Tissue
58%
24%
4%
Specialties
19%
14%
3%
Newsprint
-0.1%
Containerboard
8%
5%
Others
11%
3%
13
14
15
Forest Competitiveness
Fibria : Forest Competitiveness
45
14
30 - 40 years
11 10
25
25
25
15
15 - 25 years
10 - 12 years
12 - 15 years
8 5 6
Brazil (eucalyptus)
Indonesia
S.Africa
Chile
Portugal / Spain
USA / Canada
Finland / Sweden
70's
80's
90's
00's
Yield (m3/ha/year)
Source: ABRAF, STCP, Poyry and Fibria. Note: Pulp trees differ depending on the country: Indonesia acacia, S.Africa tropical and temperate eucalyptus, Chile temperate eucalyptus, Portugal/Spain temperate eucalyptus, USA/Canada aspen, Finland/Sweden betula.
16
2,000
1,500
1,000
Other Brazilian pulp mills Portugal Finland Canada France/ Spain Sweden 20 Chile South Africa
China
10
Source: PYRY
17
17
Trs Lagoas II
Veracel II
Production capacity: 1.5 million tons Forestry Base : - Total area: 230,000 ha - Planted area: 150,000 ha Status:
Production capacity: 1.5 million tons Forestry Base: - Total area: 220,000 ha - Planted area: 120,000 ha
Environmental Licensing in progress Trs Lagoas I surplus: 30,000 ha of effective planting Leasing: 70,000 ha of effective planting Change on the forestry base model: leased areas increased to 70% Negotiation between partners in satisfactory progress
18
19
Industry Outlook
89%
92%
87% 88% 83%
92% 87%
90%
87%
85% 82%
82%
Dec-09
Nov-09
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jun-10
Oct-10
Jun-11
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jul-10
Sep-10
Oct-09
Apr-10
Sep-09
Feb-10
Mar-10
May-10
Mar-11
Apr-11
Fev-11
May-11
Aug-09
Aug-10
Jul-11
Aug-11
Aug-09
Jan-10
May-11
Dec-09
Nov-09
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jun-10
Oct-10
Jun-11
Jul-10
Sep-10
Apr-10
Sep-09
Feb-10
Aug-10
Apr-11
Oct-09
Fev-11
Jul-11
Mar-10
May-10
days
days
41
30
25
Mar-11
21
20
15
Fev-07
Fev-09
Aug-06
Aug-07
Feb-08
Aug-08
Aug-09
Fev-10
Aug-10
Feb-11
Aug-11
Aug-11
Jan-11
Source: Utipulp
20
Industry Outlook
Market pulp: world demand growth (%)
8M2011 x 8M2010 36%
5%
5%
153
161
100
-1% Europe
-3%
Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Source: PPPC World 20
Latin America
Japan
China
US$920/t
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Jun-11
CRB
Sep-11
21
Source: Fibria
% Annual growth
2009
23.5 '000 tons 21.4
2010
23.8 22.3
2011
25.0 23.0
2012
25.3 23.3
2010/2012
3.2% 2.1%
BSK
Demand
Ratio
91%
28.1 24.8
93%
28.6 25.0
92%
30.0 26.5
92%
30.6 27.4 2.9% 4.7%
Supply
BHK
Demand
Ratio
88%
17.0 15.9 93%
87%
17.6 15.9 90%
88%
18.8 17.1 91%
90%
19.6 18.3 94% 5.4% 7.4%
Supply
BEKP
Demand Ratio
22
Financial Highlights
23
2Q11 Performance
Key Indicators
2Q11 Pulp Production (000 t) Pulp Sales (000 t) Paper Production (000 t) 1,271 1,230 31 1Q11 1,319 1,259 29 2Q10 1,164 1,214 31 2Q11 vs 1Q11 -4% -2% 9% 2Q11 vs 2Q10 9% 1% 2%
2Q10
11% 38% 24% 25%
1Q11
9%
14% 46%
2Q11
11% 46%
31
36
29
-15%
5%
1,459
1,548
1,628
-6%
-10%
27% Europe
20%
North America Asia
29%
490
34% 277
607
39% 11
672
41% (310)
-19%
-5 p.p. -
-27%
-7 p.p. -
Brazil/Others
215
389
130
-45%
66%
448
446 490
2Q10
1Q11
2Q11
2Q10
1Q11
2Q11
24
Competitiveness Project
Action 2011 Capex reduction of R$201 million New bleaching line of Plant A Aracruz Unit Higher operating stability Optimization of wood transportation by barges Aracruz Unit Energy Matrix Jacare Unit Global Sourcing Rail Extension Trs Lagoas Unit Long-term international logistics contract (STX) Future Forestry Project
2011
2012
2013
1,164
2Q10
2Q11
2Q10
2Q11
25
Capex
(R$ million)
Industrial Expansion Forest Expansion Subtotal Expansion Safety/Environment Forestry Renewal Maintenance, IT, R&D and Modernization Subtotal Maintenance 50% Veracel/Conpacel Total Fibria
2011E Current
68 243 311 75 602 356 1,033 96 1,440
R$ 201 million reduction vs original budget
26
Debt
Debt Indicators
Short Term Debt (%)
(R$ million) Gross Debt Cash(1) Net Debt 2Q11 10,448 2,496 7,952 1Q11 10,256 2,297 7,959 2Q10 13,209 2,364 10,846 2Q11 vs 1Q11 2% 9% 0% 2Q11 vs 2Q10 -21% 6% -27% 2Q10
(1) Includes
16% 12%
14%
1Q11
2Q11
(2) LTM
2Q10
1Q11
2Q11
5.1
16%
7% 4%
6%
23%
BNDES Pre-Payment Others
2011
2012
2013 Jun/10
2014
2015
Jun/2011
27
Liability Management
Promises delivered, now more ahead to go
Net Debt/EBITDA (x)
3.6
2.9 9.9 7.9 7.9
Commitment to investment grade level
3.2
10.2
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
Sale of Guaba: US$ 1.4bn Fibria19 Bond: US$ 1.0bn 9.25% 10NC5 Export pre-payment facilities: US$ 1.175bn
Fibria20 Bond: US$ 750MM 7.5% 10NC5 Exchange Bond Fibria19: 94% to Fibria20 Operational cash generation Derivatives debt settlement: US$ 2.6bn Debt: lower cost longer tenor
Sale of Conpacel/KSR: R$ 1.5bn Fibria21 Bond Fibria21: US$ 750MM 6.75% 10NC5 US$ 500MM Revolving facility + US$ 300MM EPP Covenants: 4.0x YE2011 Tight cost and Capex control 2011 Capex reduced by R$ 201 million Sale of Piracicaba: US$ 313MM
28
Market Perception
Yield (%)
Fibria'2019 9,7 9,2 8,7 8,2 7,7 7,2 6,7 6,2 5,7 5,2 Dec-09
Fibria'2020
Fibria'2021
8,2 7,7 7,2 6,7 6,2 5,7 5,2 May-11 Mar-11 Apr-11
Fibria'2021
80bps
Aug-11
Jun-11
Dec-10
May-10
May-11
Apr-10
Nov-09
Feb-10 Mar-10
Feb-11 Mar-11
Aug-10
Apr-11
Oct-09
Oct-10
Jun-11
Jun-10
Jan-10
Jan-11
Nov-10
Aug-11
Sep-10
Jul-11
Fibria2021
Moodys Fitch S&P
Sep-11
Jul-10
Rating
Sep-11
Jul-11
Fibria in Summary
Larger scale
Innovation
Growth
Sustainability
Website: www.fibria.com.br/ir
31
Backup
32
China
Chinas Hardwood Imports of BHKP by Country (1)
6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0
2,3 1,5 1,1 1,3 1,0 0,8 0,4 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,0
5,0 4,1
2010
8M 2011
(Million tons)
1,0
0,0 BHKP Total Latin America
Apr 2011
Mar 2011 Ju 2011 Aug 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 2011 Mar 2012 Sep 2012 Q1 2013 2013
250
300 350 800 450 450 810 130 125 450 600
2012/2013 = 1.5mt 2011 = 4.7 mt
Others* Indonesia
USA
Canada
Western Europe
12%
6,200
16% 17%
9%7%
11% 9%
17% 17%
2005
2006
2007
2008
Hardwood
2009
Total
2010
8M 2011
Eucaplyptus
(1) PPPC
33
(2) Source: TerraChoice Monthly Report Aug 2011
Tissue Market
Per Capita Consumption of Tissue by Region, 2010(1)
Kg/capita
25 20
23,5
15,6
25
14,6 11,2
15 10
20 15 10
5 0 L. America
3,6
5 0
1991 1996 2001 2006 2009 2010
N&M East
Oceania
N. America
W. Europe
E. Europe
Africa
Japan
China
N.America Japan
W.Europe China
E.Europe Asia FE
L.America Oceania
NME Africa
(1)
RISI
34