land

Article
Analysis of Spatiotemporal Changes in the Gravitational
Structure of Urban Agglomerations in Northern and Southern
Xinjiang Based on a Gravitational Model
Difan Liu 1,2 , Yuejian Wang 1,2, *, Lei Wang 1,2 , Liping Xu 1,2 , Huanhuan Chen 1,2 and Yuxiang Ma 1,2

1 College of Science, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China; liudifan@stu.shzu.edu.cn (D.L.);

wanglei@dlut.edu.cn (L.W.); xlpalw@163.com (L.X.); chenhuan@stu.shzu.edu.cn (H.C.);
mayxiang@stu.shzu.edu.cn (Y.M.)
2 Key Laboratory of Oasis Town and Mountain Basin System Ecology Corps, Shihezi 832000, China
* Correspondence: wangyuejian0808@163.com; Tel.: +86-1809-993-9983

Abstract: The urban agglomeration plays a significant role in enhancing integrated regional develop-
ment. Nevertheless, the expansion of urban agglomerations has demonstrated a lackluster ability
to attract cities. Presently, finding solutions to stabilize the existing urban strength and effectively
extend attraction to neighboring cities has become a crucial matter. This study adopts the enhanced
comprehensive attraction model, fracture point model, and radiation radius model to examine the
level of city attraction, intensity of radiation, and range of radiation in the northern and southern
Xinjiang city clusters between 2010 and 2020. Based on the analysis, the following conclusions are
drawn: (1) the comprehensive strength and city attraction of cities in the northern Xinjiang region
is higher than that of the southern Xinjiang region; (2) the intensity of spatial connection between
cities in the northern and southern Xinjiang regions is gradually increasing, and the intensity of
spatial connection of cities in the northern Xinjiang region is significantly greater than that in the
southern Xinjiang region. The intensity of spatial connection between cities in the northern and
southern Xinjiang regions is significantly greater than that in the southern Xinjiang region; (3) the
central role of the central cities in the northern and southern Xinjiang regions is weakening, the
Citation: Liu, D.; Wang, Y.; Wang, L.;
development of cities in the region is gradually becoming unified and coordinated, and regional
Xu, L.; Chen, H.; Ma, Y. Analysis of
integration is gradually being strengthened. This study reveals the similarities and differences in
Spatiotemporal Changes in the
urban development in the north and south of Xinjiang and provides important theoretical reference
Gravitational Structure of Urban
value for regional urban development.
Agglomerations in Northern and
Southern Xinjiang Based on a
Gravitational Model. Land 2024, 13,
Keywords: urban gravity; urban linkage strength; gravity modeling; urban agglomerations; north–
29. https://doi.org/10.3390/ south border
land13010029

Academic Editor: Fabrizio Battisti

Received: 6 November 2023

1. Introduction
Revised: 13 December 2023 Urban development in China has accelerated due to the growth of the social economy
Accepted: 15 December 2023 and the reform and opening up policies that have framed the country’s policies. From
Published: 25 December 2023 1978 to 2022, the urban population of China increased from 172.45 million to 920.71 million
in 2022, an increase of 74.826 million people, which exceeds the total population of Eu-
rope. The urbanization rate in China has increased from 19.39% to 65.22% [1], and now
it still maintains a high-speed growth. Meanwhile, with the accelerated development of
Copyright: © 2023 by the authors.
industrialization and urbanization in China, urban spatial expansion and the expansion
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
of urban influence have led to a large-scale emergence of urban agglomeration, making
This article is an open access article
distributed under the terms and
urban agglomerations the main form of urbanization. An urban agglomeration is a group
conditions of the Creative Commons
of cities within a specific geographic area that have a significant variety of attributes, levels,
Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// and types [2]. Urbanization is mostly driven by one or more megacities or major cities
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ acting as the hubs. These cities depend on the environment, transportation and informa-
4.0/). tion networks, and internal and external connections with the surrounding areas [3–5].

Land 2024, 13, 29. https://doi.org/10.3390/land13010029 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/land

Land 2024, 13, 29 2 of 20

China’s development is positively impacted by urban agglomerations as well [6,7]. Urban

agglomerations were considered by China as a crucial tool for advancing the develop-
ment of new urbanization during the 11th Five-Year Plan period. The nation established
19 significant urban agglomerations during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, including the
Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, northern Xinjiang, and the urban agglomera-
tions of Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei. The 14th Five-Year Plan and the 2035 long-term goals
subsequently further optimized the regional definition of urban agglomerations. In order
to encourage regional integration of urban agglomerations, a new national urbanization
development strategy that is built on agglomerations and prioritizes human development
has been proposed.
In recent years, China’s economy and society have made rapid progress, and regional
integration has been developing rapidly, affecting the spatial connections between cities
and within and outside clusters. The economic coordination and reasonable spatial layout
of urban clusters have become important factors of competitiveness [8–10]. To this end,
scholars have conducted research on the regional economy and spatial connections of urban
agglomerations, focusing on the strength and potential of connections, the structure and
evolution of connections, and the optimization of radiation patterns. The perspectives
include provinces, metropolitan areas, and urban agglomerations. The research methods
include social network analysis, urban factor flow, and gravity model [11,12], among which
the gravity model is the most widely used [13–15]. Representing the size of regional eco-
nomic connections or spatial interactions through gravity is one of the important methods
used for studying urban spatial connections. Zipf was the first to apply the law of universal
gravitation in physics to the study of interactions between cities [16]. Early urban gravity
models were used to study the spatial structure of cities and later gradually introduced
into research on regional economic connections, urban interaction structures, and spatial
structures of urban connections.
When reviewing previous studies, there is a broad spectrum of findings about the geo-
graphical relationships between urban agglomerations. Relatively little research has been
conducted on the regional linkages of cities in impoverished areas; instead, the majority of
studies on the gravity of urban agglomerations in China concentrate on developed urban
agglomerations like the Yangtze River Delta and the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region [17–19].
Xinjiang, which connects eight Eurasian nations outside and five northwest provinces
internally, has become the center of opening up to the West with the ongoing development
of the “Belt and Road” plan [20,21]. As the hub of the Silk Road Economic Belt, Xinjiang has
become more and more ideal in recent years due to its rapid infrastructural development
and increased degree of international economic and trade interaction. Xinjiang has made
it plain that it will intensify the new urbanization strategy’s implementation during the
14th Five Year Plan period. It will also develop the Urumqi metropolitan area, construct
the northern Xinjiang urban belt, establish the southern Xinjiang urban agglomeration,
and form a moderately sized, fully operational, and rationally arranged urban system.
Simultaneously, Xinjiang’s urbanization and regional integration have been propelled by
the existence of urban agglomerations on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, as
well as oasis urban agglomerations like Kashgar and Korla. Even with its 2022 urbanization
rate of 57.89%, Xinjiang remains less urbanized than the country as a whole. In addition,
there are disparities in the degree of urbanization growth between northern and southern
Xinjiang because of variations in their respective natural and economic bases [22]. Southern
Xinjiang’s economic development is far behind that of northern Xinjiang because of the
region’s harsh environment and inadequate transportation systems. Thus, examining the
spatial relationships between the cities in the Xinjiang region and elucidating the features
and issues of the urban agglomeration’s development are crucial for both the theoretical
and practical aspects of the agglomeration’s creation and growth.
This study selected the urban agglomeration in the Xinjiang region as the research
object, with nine cities selected in the northern Xinjiang region and seven cities selected in
the southern Xinjiang region. We used the improved comprehensive gravity model, fault
Land 2024, 13, 29 3 of 20

zone model, and GIS to analyze the spatial connectivity characteristics and urban gravity
range of cities in the urban agglomeration of northern and southern Xinjiang from 2010
to 2020. The problem we need to solve is as follows: 1. Explore the spatial interaction
characteristics of urban agglomerations in northern and southern Xinjiang. 2. Explore the
differences in urban patterns between northern and southern Xinjiang. 3. Based on the
layout characteristics of urban agglomerations in northern and southern Xinjiang, propose
appropriate urban development suggestions.

2. Study Area and Data Sources

2.1. Study Area Overview
Xinjiang is located in the west of China, with a geographical position between 73◦400~96◦180 E
and 34◦ 250 ~48◦ 100 N. It is the center of Asia and Europe, with a vast territory, accounting for
one-sixth of the land area of China. Xinjiang is also an important area along the Silk Road
and an important transportation hub, and it has abundant mineral resources and a special
topography of “three mountains and two basins”, which divides Xinjiang into southern and
northern Xinjiang by the Tianshan Mountains. However, due to the limitations of Xinjiang’s
geographical location, resources, and development base, Xinjiang’s urban development
is slow, and the level of urbanization is low. As of 2020, the urbanization rate of Xinjiang
reached 50.91%. However, there are obvious geographical differences in the development
of urbanization in Xinjiang, with cities in northern Xinjiang (Urumqi, Karamay, Shihezi,
Changji, Fukang, Yining, Kuitun, Tacheng, and Altay) developing more rapidly and having
higher urbanization levels, while cities in southern Xinjiang (Kullu, Aksu, Atushi, Kashgar,
Hotan, and Alar) and the cities in southern Xinjiang (Kulle, Aksu, Atushi, Kashgar, Hotan,
Alar, Tumushuk) have a poor economic base, lack of resources, and limited transportation,
making the urbanization level in southern Xinjiang lower.

2.2. Data Source and Processing

The data for this study mainly includes socio-economic data, the shortest distance
between cities, and road traffic market data from a total of 16 cities in northern and southern
Xinjiang. Among them, the socio-economic data are sourced from the 2010–2010 China
Urban Statistical Yearbook, Xinjiang Urban Statistical Yearbook, Xinjiang Urban National
Economy and Social Development Statistical Yearbook, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous
Region Urban County Construction Statistical Yearbook, Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook, and
survey data from related websites. The data on the shortest distance between cities, also
known as road travel time, is obtained by searching for the shortest transportation distance
between two city centers on Baidu Maps. The raw data were standardized using SPSS 26
data processing software, and the data processing results were imported into ArcGIS 10.3
for spatial network analysis and visualized.

3. Research Methodology
3.1. Construction of a Comprehensive Gravity Model
The physics model of gravity is used to represent the idea that interactions between
spatial objects become less significant as distance increases [23]. Urban research has adopted
this approach; however, there are certain restrictions [24]. Therefore, this work improves
the conventional gravity model in the following ways by fusing real-world applications
with the findings of previous research.
First off, population or GDP size alone cannot adequately capture the influence of
cities [25], so they cannot be used as a sole indicator of urban quality. Cities create demand
that is complementary to one another and draw people in due to their overall strengths
in a variety of areas, including infrastructure, society, and the economy. Therefore, in
order to quantify urban “quality” effectively, we need an indicator that is more thorough.
In order to create a thorough method for evaluating urban strength, this study took into
account the elements that influence urban disparities and chose 11 evaluation factors
from 4 categories: economic scale, land scale, social development level, and ecological
Land 2024, 13, 29 4 of 20

environment preservation. The number of people living in cities, GDP per capita, the
share of secondary and tertiary industries, and the average salary of employed people all
serve as indicators of the economic scale. The built-up area, population density, and per
capita urban road area all serve as indicators of the urban land scale. We can utilize the
popularity of urban gas and retail sales of consumer goods to gauge the degree of urban
social development and the rate of built-up area green coverage and per capita public
green space area to gauge the amount of ecological environment protection. To describe
the “quality” of the gravity model city, we can compute the comprehensive strength of a
city using the evaluation factors mentioned above. See Table 1.

Table 1. Evaluation index system for urban comprehensive strength.

Level 1 Indicators Secondary Indicators Indicator Weights

Urban population (10,000) 13.968
GDP per capita (persons/USD) 7.931
Size of economy
Share of secondary and tertiary
2.123
industries (%)
Average wage of employed
9.627
workers (dollars)
Built-up area (Km2 ) 21.444
Landholding Population density
3.539
(persons/Km2 )
Urban road area per capita (m2 ) 5.459
Total retail sales of social
26.499
Level of social development consumer goods (million USD)
City gas penetration rate (%) 1.218
Public green space per capita (m2 ) 6.325
Eco-Environmental Protection
Greening coverage of built-up
1.867
areas (%)

A composite scoring method was utilized to rate the overall strength of the cities in
the northern and southern border regions:
(1) Data standardization. In this paper, we choose the method of standardization of
extreme deviation to standardize the data of the indicators of each city in order to eliminate
the influence of the different data outline, which is publicly announced as follows:



Mij = Xij − minX j / maxX j − minX j (1)

where Mij is the normalized value of the ith project under the jth indicator, Xij is the indicator
value of the ith city under the jth indicator, and minXj and maxXj are the maximum and
minimum values of the jth indicator, respectively.
m
Iij = Mij /∑i=1 Mij + 0.001 (2)

where Iij is the normalized value, m is the number of cities, and 0.001 is an overall shift to
the right to prevent the presence of a value of 0 and facilitate subsequent calculations.
(2) Entropy weight method to determine the weight of indicators. We can calculate
the entropy value and entropy weight of each indicator ej , Wj ; the formula is as follows:
m
e j = −1/ln m∑i=1 Iij ln Iij (3)

n
Wj = 1 − e j /∑ j=1 1 − e j


(4)

where, ej (0 ≤ ej ≤ 1) is the entropy value of the jth indicator, −1/Inm is the information
entropy coefficient, Wj is the entropy weight value of the jth indicator, and n is the number
of urbanization indicators.
Land 2024, 13, 29 5 of 20

(3) Composite score. We can calculate the score of the urbanization level of the city to
reflect the level of development of the city by the size of the value. The formula is
n
Sij = ∑i=1 Iij Wj (5)

where Sij is the value of each indicator for the ith city, Iij is the normalized value of the
urban development level indicator, and Wj is the weight of each urbanization indicator.
Second, the distance-attenuation effect between cities is not well represented by the
direct distance in conventional gravity models. Cities are linked together by a variety
of networks, and advancements in communication and transportation technologies have
alienated the idea of distance [26,27]. Consequently, a more precise measurement of the
“distance” between cities is required, taking into account all relevant factors, including
time, cost, and route. In this article, the direct distance variable included in conventional
gravity models is replaced by time distance. A lot of the cities in Xinjiang are not easily
accessible by air or rail because of the disparities in transportation convenience between
the region’s north and south. Consequently, after careful analysis, the distance between
cities in this article is calculated using the intercity highway’s quickest travel time.
Thirdly, as regional collaborative development continues to grow, cities strive for
greater levels of development within their borders to compensate for shortcomings or
capitalize on advantages [28]. They also frequently go outside their borders for external
complementarity and to meet their demands from a variety of angles. At this point, cities
begin to create regional relationships that fully capture their radiation capability [29]. There
must be variations in each city’s appeal or an asymmetry in the attractiveness across cities
as a result of their varying levels of development [30]. As a result, cities are drawn to
one another in both directions [31–33]. The degree to which a city attracts other nearby
cities can be represented by its positive attraction, and the degree to which it accepts
radiation from other nearby cities can be represented by its negative attraction. This study
uses the complete strength of two cities to increase the gravitational constant G based on
previous research:
K a = M a / ( M a + Mb ) (6)
In the formula, Ka is the ratio of the comprehensive strength of city a to the sum
of the comprehensive strength of the two cities, representing the direction of the spatial
connection between city a and city b. The closer the value of Ka is to 1, the more it indicates
that the city connection is positively radiating to the outside world, and the closer it is to 0,
the more it indicates that the city connection is negatively attracted to the outside world,
and the two situations indicate that there is a demand between the cities; when the value of
Ka is close to 0.5, it indicates that the two cities are complementary to each other, and the
connection is relatively balanced.
Ultimately, the improved gravitational model for this study is as follows:

M a Mb
Fab = Ka (7)
Dab

Improving the gravitational constant using the magnitude of the combined strength
between the two cities can adequately express the asymmetry of the attraction between the
cities, so the total intensity of external ties and the intensity of accepting external ties, i.e.,
the positive and negative attraction, of the city a can also be calculated:

M a Mb M a Mb
Fab = Ka , Fba = Kb (8)
Dab Dab

Pa = ∑ Fab , Na = ∑ Fba (9)

In Equation (8), Fab is the spatial linkage intensity from city a to city b, which is
regarded as the positive attraction of city a, while Fb a is the spatial linkage intensity from
Land 2024, 13, 29 6 of 20

city b to city a, which is regarded as the negative attraction of city a. In Equation (9), Pa
is the sum of linkage intensity between city a and all other cities, indicating the overall
degree of the city’s external radiation-driven intensity; Na is the sum of the intensity of
radiation-driven intensity of city a by all other cities, which is also known as the sum of the
intensity of the dependence on the attraction of other cities.

3.2. Urban Attraction Model

(1) Fracture point formula
Convis proposes the Breaking Point method to delineate the range of attractiveness
of a city, theorizing that the range of attractiveness of a city depends on the level of the
city’s overall strengths as well as the distance between the cities [34,35]. According to the
theory, a city’s attractiveness range depends on its level of comprehensive strength and the
distance between the cities [36]. The more comprehensively strong a city is, the wider its
gravitational attractiveness spectrum can radiate, but as the distance between the two cities
grows, the attractiveness of the city gradually weakens until it reaches zero, at which point
it becomes insignificant. Based on the foregoing, this study interprets the inter-city distance
as the highway distance between cities, calculates the city’s comprehensive strength score
as a proxy for its size, and modifies the fracture point calculation as follows:
 p 
Da = Dab / 1 + Mb /Ma (10)

where Da is the distance from City a to the rupture point; Dab is the highway distance
between City a and City b; and Ma, Mb are the values of the urban development level of
Cities a and b.
(2) Field strength formula
2
FaP = Ma /DaP (11)
where point P is the fracture point, FaP is the magnitude of gravitational force of City a at
the fracture point P, Ma is the city size of City a, and DaP is the distance from City a to the
fracture point P.
(3) Gravitational radius formula [37,38]
The radius of attraction of the city can reflect the range of radiant energy of the city
and can more intuitively reflect the attraction situation between cities; the formula is:
p
R= Ma /F (12)

where R is the radius of the city’s radiation, Ma is the combined strength of City a, and F is
the strength of the city’s boundary field.

4. Results and Analysis

4.1. Spatial and Temporal Characterization of Urban Gravity
The gravity values of the cities in northern and southern Xinjiang may be computed
using the revised gravity model, which can indicate changes in urban development level
and spatial connection intensity of cities in various phases from 2010 to 2020.
It is clear from the results of Tables 2 and 3 that the comprehensive strength and
comprehensive city attractions of cities in the northern Xinjiang region are generally higher
than those of cities in the southern Xinjiang region. The comprehensive city attraction and
the quality of the cities in northern and southern Xinjiang both showed a steady growth
trend from 2010 to 2020, but the four cities in northern Xinjiang—Shihezi, Changji, Fukang,
and Yining—saw a slight decline in both of these metrics from 2016 to 2020. According to
the gravity model, a city’s attractiveness is primarily influenced by its level of development
and its proximity to other cities. The quality of cities and the strength of inter-city ties
in Xinjiang are characterized by “high in the north and low in the south” due to the
comparative strength of northern border cities being higher than southern border cities and
Land 2024, 13, 29 7 of 20

the distance between southern border cities being much greater than that between northern
border cities.

Table 2. Urban comprehensive strength and comprehensive gravity of sorthern Xinjiang from 2010
to 2020.

Age 2010 2013 2016 2020

Urban Urban Urban Urban Urban Urban Urban Urban

F Comprehensive Comprehensive Comprehensive Comprehensive Comprehensive Comprehensive Comprehensive Comprehensive
Strength Gravity Strength Gravity Strength Gravity Strength Gravity

Urumqi 0.5199 2380.8623 0.7149 4706.5183 0.7837 6149.6849 0.7862 6197.707

Karamay 0.214 419.2699 0.3262 908.0753 0.3443 1101.5086 0.3737 1253.0383
Shihezi city 0.159 370.8971 0.2243 737.7493 0.2515 957.7472 0.2376 887.7689
Changji city 0.1308 368.5206 0.1928 791.7402 0.2466 1257.7024 0.2375 1183.108
Fukang city 0.0953 186.6684 0.1735 562.7752 0.231 957.4028 0.2106 825.5427
Yining city 0.143 106.2632 0.1773 171.721 0.2172 256.3679 0.1939 216.9976
Kuitun city 0.1363 388.9559 0.1764 672.3875 0.1942 836.1194 0.227 1076.102
Tacheng city 0.0859 68.6727 0.1167 127.0178 0.1571 221.2435 0.1693 251.7137
Altay city 0.1088 87.6592 0.0973 82.5996 0.1568 194.593 0.1655 213.6615

Table 3. Urban comprehensive strength and comprehensive gravity of southern Xinjiang from 2010
to 2020.

Age 2010 2013 2016 2020

Urban Urban Urban Urban Urban Urban Urban Urban

F Comprehensive Comprehensive Comprehensive Comprehensive Comprehensive Comprehensive Comprehensive Comprehensive
Strength Gravity Strength Gravity Strength Gravity Strength Gravity

Korla 0.1954 87.2826 0.2627 155.0794 0.2821 199.5615 0.3195 261.3781

Aksu 0.125 106.6557 0.1839 210.3098 0.1956 272.8875 0.2296 373.9949
Artux 0.0671 57.0835 0.0939 108.7569 0.1275 195.7921 0.1616 298.635
Kashgar city 0.1467 145.7485 0.1949 258.3227 0.2385 406.9163 0.2533 498.4918
Hotan city 0.0909 37.6211 0.1256 69.7633 0.1212 74.1743 0.1607 123.2423
Alaer 0.0924 62.6546 0.1127 97.1373 0.1503 166.4638 0.1803 236.634
Tumxuk 0.104 75.3698 0.1118 97.0606 0.2135 281.3145 0.2287 340.7354

We used Origin 2021 software’s Circos chord diagrams to visualize the outcomes. In
its original form, the chord diagram was meant to depict the intricate connections between
genes. We visualized the results using Circos chord diagrams in Origin software [39]. This
article mainly displays the spatial connection strength between multiple cities through a
proportional chord diagram. Circles are divided into different arcs according to the number
of cities, and the length of the arcs represents the proportion of the city’s gravity. Taking the
2010 North Xinjiang City Chord Diagram as an example, Urumqi’s urban gravity accounts
for 54% of the city’s gravity in the North Xinjiang region, and the connecting lines between
different arcs represent the direction of the city’s gravity. The color of the connecting
lines indicates that the city is attracted more—for example, Urumqi. All connecting lines
are in the color of other cities, indicating that Urumqi is in a state of attraction to other
cities. The thickness of the connecting lines between cities indicates the strength of mutual
attraction between cities. For example, the connecting line between Urumqi and Changji is
the thickest, with the strongest attraction between cities.
Table 2 demonstrates that from 2010 to 2020, Urumqi’s cities had substantially higher
comprehensive strength and gravity than other cities in northern Xinjiang, consistently
ranking top and emerging as the only stable “central city” in the area. Figure 1 shows that
Changji, Fukang, Shihezi, and Kuitun are more prevalent in Urumqi than Karamay, Yining,
Tacheng, and Altay. The comprehensive strength of the cities of Changji, Kuitun, and
Yining has not changed considerably over the years, but their comprehensive attraction has.
When their position is examined, it is discovered that Changji is close to Urumqi. Kuitun
is situated in the middle of the northern Xinjiang metropolis, a reasonable distance from
other cities, although it is some distance from Urumqi. Because of its distance from Urumqi
and other cities and its location in the westernmost section of the region, Yining has a lower
comprehensive attraction and a greater comprehensive strength than other nearby cities.
 and Yining has not changed considerably over the years, but their comprehensive attrac-
tion has. When their position is examined, it is discovered that Changji is close to Urumqi.
Kuitun is situated in the middle of the northern Xinjiang metropolis, a reasonable distance
from other cities, although it is some distance from Urumqi. Because of its distance from
Urumqi and other cities and its location in the westernmost section of the region, Yining
Land 2024, 13, 29 has a lower comprehensive attraction and a greater comprehensive strength than 8 of 20
other
nearby cities.

Figure
Figure 1. 1. Urban
Urban connection
connection strength
strength in in northern
northern Xinjiang
Xinjiang from
from 2010
2010 to to 2020.
2020.

Table
Table 3 demonstrates
3 demonstrates thatthat
fromfrom20102010 to 2020,
to 2020, the overall
the overall strengthstrength of Kashgar
of Kashgar and Korla and
Korla cities was comparatively outstanding. In terms of overall
cities was comparatively outstanding. In terms of overall strength, Tumxuk surpassed strength, Tumxuk sur-
passed
Aksu Aksuand
in 2016 in 2016
2020,and 2020, up
moving moving up to
to third thirdwhile
place, place,Aksu
whilecame
Aksuincame
thirdininthird
2010inand2010
and 2013.
2013. FigureFigure
2 shows 2 shows that while
that while Kashgar
Kashgar andandAksu Aksu
havehave
thethe most
most pronounced
pronounced urban
urban
spatial
spatial connections,
connections, Artux,
Artux, Alaer,
Alaer, and
and Hotan
Hotan have
have continued
continued toto havereduced
have reduced spatialties.
spatial ties.
Urban
Urban comprehensive
comprehensive strength
strength is is increasing
increasing in in Tumxuk,
Tumxuk, andand a distinctive
a distinctive characteristic
characteristic is is
that
that Korla
Korla has
has thethe highest
highest urban
urban comprehensive
comprehensive strength
strength inin southern
southern Xinjiang.
Xinjiang. However,
However,
because
because Korla
Korla is remote
is remote fromfrom
otherother
citiescities and
and has has higher
higher comprehensive
comprehensive strengthstrength
and lower and
comprehensive attraction,
lower comprehensive its urbanits
attraction, spatial
urbanconnection strength strength
spatial connection is only average.
is only average.

4.2. Characterization of Urban Spatial and Temporal Linkages

A city’s p value represents its total economic radiation from the outside world, while
its n value represents the total economic radiation that the city depends on from other
cities. A city’s p and n values show how close it is to its adjacent cities, as well as the
interconnections and power of the inter-city radiation. The p value and n value of the cities
in the north and south from 2010 to 2020 are calculated using Equations (8) and (9), and the
structure of the urban connectivity is further examined.
The positive and negative spatial relationships between cities in the northern Xinjiang
region were clearly stronger than those in the southern Xinjiang region from 2010 to 2020,
as can be seen in Figures 3 and 4. Since 2016, the rate of growth of urban spatial connections
has decreased, and the intensity of urban spatial linkages in northern and southern Xinjiang
has progressively increased.
 Land 2024, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 9 of 22
Land 2024, 13, 29 9 of 20

Land 2024, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 10 of 22

Figure
Figure 2. 2. Gravity
Gravity values
values of of cities
cities in in southern
southern Xinjiang
Xinjiang from
from 2010
2010 to to 2020.
2020.

4.2. Characterization of Urban Spatial and Temporal Linkages

A city’s p value represents its total economic radiation from the outside world, while
its n value represents the total economic radiation that the city depends on from other
cities. A city’s p and n values show how close it is to its adjacent cities, as well as the inter-
connections and power of the inter-city radiation. The p value and n value of the cities in
the north and south from 2010 to 2020 are calculated using Equations (8) and (9), and the
structure of the urban connectivity is further examined.
The positive and negative spatial relationships between cities in the northern Xin-
jiang region were clearly stronger than those in the southern Xinjiang region from 2010 to
2020, as can be seen in Figures 3 and 4. Since 2016, the rate of growth of urban spatial
connections has decreased, and the intensity of urban spatial linkages in northern and
southern Xinjiang has progressively increased.
Urumqi, Karamay, and Shihezi had the top three p values in northern Xinjiang in
2010. The top three p values were Urumqi, Karamay, and Changji in 2013, 2016, and 2020,
respectively. Additionally, throughout the course of the four years, Urumqi’s p value has
outperformed its n value, demonstrating a positive attractiveness dominance. In 2010,
negative attraction predominated in Karamay, However, positive attraction predomi-
nated in 2013 and later. The other cities in northern Xinjiang have a strong deterrent.

Figure3.3.Positive
Figure Positiveand
andnegative
negativeattraction
attractionintensity
intensityofofcities
citiesininnorthern
northernXinjiang
Xinjiangfrom
from2010
2010toto2020.
2020.
Land 2024, 13, 29 10 of 20
Figure 3. Positive and negative attraction intensity of cities in northern Xinjiang from 2010 to 2020.

Figure4.4. Positive
Figure Positive and
and negative
negative attraction
attraction intensity
intensity of
of cities
cities in
in southern
southernXinjiang
Xinjiangfrom
from2010
2010to
to2020.
2020.

Urumqi,
Kashgar,Karamay,
Aksu, andand Shihezi
Korla had
had the topthe top pthree
three p values
values in northern
in the southern Xinjiang
Xinjiang in
region
2010. The top three p values were Urumqi, Karamay, and Changji in 2013, 2016,
in 2010 and 2013. The top three p values shifted to Kashgar, Tumshuk, and Aksu in 2016 and 2020,
respectively. Additionally,Tumshuk
and 2020. Additionally, throughout the course
displayed a pofvalue
the four
andyears, in 2010p value
Urumqi’s
n value has
and 2013,
outperformed its n Korla,
whereas Kashgar, value, demonstrating
and Aksu did asopositive attractiveness
every four years. After dominance.
2013, the In 2010,
p value
negative attraction predominated in Karamay, However, positive attraction predominated
in 2013 and later. The other cities in northern Xinjiang have a strong deterrent.
Kashgar, Aksu, and Korla had the top three p values in the southern Xinjiang region in
2010 and 2013. The top three p values shifted to Kashgar, Tumshuk, and Aksu in 2016 and
2020. Additionally, Tumshuk displayed a p value and n value in 2010 and 2013, whereas
Kashgar, Korla, and Aksu did so every four years. After 2013, the p value dramatically
grew between 2016 and 2020, showing a p value > n value with a sharp rise in positive
appeal. In the four years, the other cities exhibited predominant unattractiveness.

4.3. Characterization of the Spatial and Temporal Linkage Structure of Cities

A combination of outward radiation and outward dependence is represented by the
difference between a city’s p value and its n value (p-n) or the difference between a city’s
overall positive attractiveness and its total negative attractiveness. If the difference is
positive, it indicates that the city is in the center of the region and, to some extent, promotes
the growth of the neighboring cities. If the difference is negative, it indicates that the
opposite is true. The city is objectively reflected to be in a peripheral position in the
region, more impacted by the core city, or dependent on other cities for development if
the difference is negative, which indicates that outward radiation is less than external
dependency.
According to Figure 5, the city of Urumqi plays a consistent role as a core radiator in
the region, as evidenced by the highest values of (p-n) in the northern border region from
2010 to 2020 being all in Urumqi (1579.71, 4348.37) and showing an annual growing trend.
The difference between Karamay City in 2010 is negative (−196.45), but the difference
changes to become positive in 2013, 2016, and 2020, showing that Karamay City depends
on the radiation of the nearby cities from 2010 but changes to primarily radiate outward
in 2013. The following cities all have negative (p-n) values, indicating that they are on
Land 2024, 13, 29 11 of 20

the periphery
Land 2024, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW of the region and rely on nearby cities for development. In addition, the 12 o
degree of change in the (p-n) values of the cities in the northern border region is decreasing
both positively and negatively, indicating that the differences between the cities in the
northern border region are gradually decreasing, and the regional integration development
is gradually increasing.

Figure 5. Gravity difference of cities in northern Xinjiang from 2010 to 2020.

Figure 5. Gravity difference of cities in northern Xinjiang from 2010 to 2020.
While Kashgar and Korla are stable Class 1 outward-radiating cities, Artux is a stable
Class 3 externally According
dependent to Figure 6, the
city, and urban
Aksu (p-n)
City was values in theclassified
formerly southern Xinjiang
as a Classregion
2 chang
somewhat between
balanced-development 20102016,
city in 2010, and 2020, withbefore
and 2020 positive (p-n) values
becoming in Korla, Aksu, and Kashg
an outward-radiating
city in 2013.Among
Hotan andthem, Korla’s
Alaer (p-n) values
underwent show adevelopment
balanced trend of stable in increase,
2010, 2013,demonstrating
and 2016 that
city occupies the region’s central position and that the
and external reliance in 2020. Tumxuk was a city with balanced development in 2010, 2013, core’s radiation influence
and 2020; ingrown
2016, itstronger
changedover intotime. Kashgarthat
a metropolis experienced
expandedsteadyoutside.growth from 2010 to 2016 bef
beginning
According to Figureto decline in 2020.
6, the urban (p-n)This suggests
values in the that Kashgar’s
southern Xinjiangdominant position in the a
region changed
has undergone
somewhat between 2010 and minor
2020,changes. Additionally,
with positive (p-n) values Tumxuk City’s
in Korla, p-n and
Aksu, values in 2010 and 2
Kashgar.
Among them, were negative,
Korla’s (p-n)while
values those
show in a2016
trendand of 2020
stablewere positive.
increase, This shows that Tumush
demonstrating
City has
the city occupies thetransitioned
region’s centralfromposition
a position
andofthatpassive dependence
the core’s radiation oninfluence
other cities
hasfor devel
ment to one of active development, which also supports
grown stronger over time. Kashgar experienced steady growth from 2010 to 2016 before the gradual strengthening of
beginning to overall
declinestrength.
in 2020.From 2010 to 2020,
This suggests all other cities
that Kashgar’s in theposition
dominant southerninXinjiang
the area region h
has undergonenegative
minorp-n values. Additionally,
changes. Based on the aforementioned
Tumxuk City’s p-n findings,
valuesitincan beand
2010 concluded
2013 that o
thewhile
were negative, past ten years,
those there
in 2016 andhave
2020been
weresignificant
positive. Thischanges
shows inthat
the Tumushuk
urban gravity
Citystructure
has transitioned from a position
the southern Xinjiangofregion,
passivewith
dependence
multiple on other
cities cities fora development
exhibiting to
trend of core effects.
one of active development, which also supports the gradual strengthening of its overall
strength. From 2010 to 2020, all other cities in the southern Xinjiang region had negative
p-n values. Based on the aforementioned findings, it can be concluded that over the past
ten years, there have been significant changes in the urban gravity structure of the southern
Xinjiang region, with multiple cities exhibiting a trend of core effects.
 Land 2024, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 13 of

Land 2024, 13, 29 12 of 20

Figure 6. Gravity difference of cities in southern Xinjiang from 2010 to 2020.

Figure 6. Gravity difference of cities in southern Xinjiang from 2010 to 2020.
The p-n values of cities in northern and southern Xinjiang were clustered and analyzed
year by year, divided
The p-ninto three
values of types
cities of
in cities: (1) and
northern outward radiation
southern Xinjiangtype, (2) balanced
were clustered and an
development type,
lyzed yearand
by(3) outward
year, divided dependence
into threetype
types[40,41]. This(1)was
of cities: performed
outward in order
radiation type, (2) ba
to better reflect the development positioning of each city in the urban connection
anced development type, and (3) outward dependence type [40,41]. This was performe structure
(Table 4). The urban
in order to connectivity
better reflect structure’s
the developmentspatiotemporal
positioning alterations
of each city in in
northern
the urbanandconnectio
southern Xinjiang were depicted (Figure 7). Urumqi, the sole Class 1 city
structure (Table 4). The urban connectivity structure’s spatiotemporal alterations in north (radiating
outwards)ern in the
andnorthern
southern Xinjiang
Xinjiang area,
were has significantly
depicted (Figureinfluenced
7). Urumqi, the the
economic growth
sole Class 1 city (radia
of neighboring cities. Due in
ing outwards) to its
thesuperior
northern transportation
Xinjiang area, advantages over other
has significantly cities, as well
influenced the econom
as its broad radiation
growth range and potent
of neighboring radiation
cities. Due ability, Urumqi,
to its superior the capital
transportation of Xinjiang,
advantages over other ci
has taken ies,
on the role of the region’s center city. Two examples of cities
as well as its broad radiation range and potent radiation ability, Urumqi, with balancedthe capit
development include Altay,
of Xinjiang, has takenKaramay,
on theShihezi, Yining,
role of the Tacheng,
region’s centerand Yining.
city. Due to their
Two examples of cities wit
proximity balanced
to Urumqi, the “center”, and the fact that they are more
development include Altay, Karamay, Shihezi, Yining, Tacheng,impacted by core cities,
and Yinin
Changji, Fukang, and Kuitun
Due to their proximity are three examples
to Urumqi, of externally
the “center”, andreliant
the fact cities.
that they are more impacte
by core cities, Changji, Fukang, and Kuitun are three examples of externally reliant citie
Table 4. Classification of urban types.

City Type City Type Name City Type Characteristics

Cities exhibit positive attraction as the dominant factor, radiating
Type 1 Outward-radiation type
and driving the surrounding cities.
Cities exhibit a balance between positive and negative attraction,
Type 2 Balanced-development type
with a balance between external radiation and absorption.
Cities exhibit a dominant negative attraction and are greatly
Type 3 Outward-dependence type influenced by surrounding cities, mainly relying on the
development of central cities.
Land 2024,13,
Land2024, 13,29x FOR PEER REVIEW 14 13
ofof2220

Figure 7. Temporal and spatial distribution of urban gravity structure types in northern and south-
Figure 7. Temporal and spatial distribution of urban gravity structure types in northern and southern
ern Xinjiang from 2010 to 2020.
Xinjiang from 2010 to 2020.
Table
4.4. 4. Classification
Scope Analysis of of urbanAttractiveness
Urban types.

This
City study
Type calculated
City Type Namethe locations of fractureCity points between cities in northern and
Type Characteristics
southern XinjiangOutward-
from 2010 toCities
2020 using
exhibitFormula
positive(10) and calculated
attraction the magnitude
as the dominant factor, of
Type
urban 1
radiation field intensity
radiation type at the fracture
radiating and point
drivingusing Formula (11) cities.
the surrounding (see Tables 4 and 5).
This was performed in order toCities
Balanced- further reflecta balance
exhibit the trendbetween
similarities andand
positive differences
negativein the
development
Type 2 of urban agglomerations in northern and southern Xinjiang.
development attraction, with a balance between external radiation and
type absorption.
Table 5. Proportion and field strength of fault points between cities in northern Xinjiang from 2010
Cities exhibit a dominant negative attraction and are
to 2020. Outward-
Type 3 greatly influenced by surrounding cities, mainly relying
dependence type
2010on the development of central cities. 2020
City 1 City 2 Specific Gravity Specific Gravity
4.4. Scope Analysis of Urban Attractiveness
Field Strength Field Strength
of Breaking Point of Breaking Point
This study calculated the locations of fracture points between cities in northern and
Urumqi Karamay 0.61 0.1407 0.59 0.2253
Urumqi Shihezisouthern
city Xinjiang0.64
from 2010 to 2020 using
0.5915 Formula (10) and 0.65calculated the magnitude
0.8907 of
Urumqi urban
Changji city radiation field
0.67 intensity at the 7.7477
fracture point using 0.65
Formula (11) (see Tables
12.477 4 and
Urumqi Fukang5).city
This was performed
0.7 in order to further
2.8315 reflect the trend0.66
similarities and differences
4.8344 in
Urumqi Yiningthe
citydevelopment of urban agglomerations
0.66 0.0257 in northern and0.67
southern Xinjiang.0.0375
Urumqi Kuitun city 0.66 0.1987 0.65 0.3106
4.4.1. Analysis of Urban Breakpoints and Field Strengths
Table 5 shows that the field strength of each city at the fault point in the northern
Xinjiang region as a whole increases year after year, with the strongest field strength at
Land 2024, 13, 29 14 of 20

Table 5. Cont.

2010 2020
City 1 City 2 Specific Gravity Specific Gravity
Field Strength Field Strength
of Breaking Point of Breaking Point
Urumqi Tacheng city 0.71 0.0327 0.68 0.0537
Urumqi Altay city 0.69 0.0446 0.69 0.0676
Karamay city Shihezi city 0.54 0.1988 0.56 0.3234
Karamay city Changji city 0.56 0.0845 0.56 0.1501
Karamay city Fukang city 0.6 0.0467 0.57 0.0898
Karamay city Yining city 0.55 0.0208 0.58 0.0325
Karamay city Kuitun city 0.56 0.3323 0.56 0.5683
Karamay city Tacheng city 0.61 0.1002 0.6 0.1836
Karamay city Altay city 0.58 0.0371 0.6 0.0613
Shihenzi city Changji city 0.52 0.4335 0.5 0.7123
Shihenzi city Fukang city 0.56 0.1401 0.52 0.2507
Shihenzi city Yining city 0.51 0.0197 0.53 0.0281
Shihenzi city Kuitun city 0.52 0.4619 0.51 0.7276
Shihenzi city Tacheng city 0.58 0.0246 0.54 0.0415
Shihenzi city Altay city 0.55 0.0151 0.55 0.0228
Changji city Fukang city 0.54 0.6972 0.52 1.3887
Changji city Yining city 0.49 0.0127 0.53 0.02
Changji city Kuitun city 0.49 0.1156 0.51 0.201
Changji city Tacheng city 0.55 0.0152 0.54 0.0287
Changji city Altay city 0.52 0.0211 0.55 0.0353
Fukang city Yining city 0.45 0.0089 0.51 0.0153
Fukang city Kuitun city 0.46 0.0559 0.49 0.1064
Fukang city Tacheng city 0.51 0.01 0.53 0.0209
Fukang city Altay city 0.48 0.0181 0.53 0.0332
Yining city Kuitun city 0.51 0.028 0.48 0.0422
Yining city Tacheng city 0.56 0.0144 0.52 0.0232
Yining city Altay city 0.53 0.0051 0.52 0.0072
Kuitun city Tacheng city 0.56 0.0312 0.54 0.0561
Kuitun city Altay city 0.53 0.0163 0.54 0.026
Tacheng city Altay city 0.47 0.0105 0.5 0.0181

4.4.1. Analysis of Urban Breakpoints and Field Strengths

Table 5 shows that the field strength of each city at the fault point in the northern
Xinjiang region as a whole increases year after year, with the strongest field strength at
the fault point between Urumqi and Changji and the weakest field strength at the fault
point between Yining and Altay. In 2010 and 2020, the proportion of fault points ranged
from 0.61 to 0.71 and 0.59 to 0.67 in Urumqi, 0.49 to 0.60 and 0.41 to 0.60 in Karamay, 0.36
to 0.58 and 0.34 to 0.55 in Shihezi, 0.33 to 0.55 and 0.35 to 0.55 in Changji, 0.3 to 0.51 and
0.34 to 0.53 in Fukang, 0.34 to 0.56 and 0.33 to 0.52 in Yining, 0.34 to 0.56 and 0.35 to 0.54 in
Kuitun, 0.29 to 0.47 and 0.32 to 0.50 in Tacheng, 0.31 to 0.52 and 0.31 to 0.50 in Altay. The
Urumqi, Karamay, Shihezi, and Yining fault spots’ combined scope is getting smaller every
year, which suggests that their radiation effects on the cities in their immediate vicinity are
lessening. Contrarily, the Fukang and Tacheng fault spots are growing in size while having
less of an impact on the nearby cities’ radiation levels.
With the strongest field strength at the fault point between Kashgar and Artux and
the weakest field strength at the fault point between Korla and Hotan, as shown in Table 6,
the field strength at the fault point in various cities in the southern Xinjiang region also
exhibits an increasing trend year after year. Between 2010 and 2020, the specific gravity of
the fault points varied between 0.54 and 0.53 at Korla, 0.44 and 0.46 at Aksu, 0.37 and 0.42
at Artux, 0.46 and 0.47 at Kashgar, 0.41 and 0.41 at Hotan, 0.41 and 0.46 at Alaer, and 0.42
and 0.46 at Tumshuk. The Korla and Aksu fault spots’ area has been shrinking year over
year, which points to a tendency in their radiation influence on neighboring cities that is
Land 2024, 13, 29 15 of 20

waning. On the other hand, the Tumxuk fault point’s area has been growing year over year,
indicating a tendency in the radiation influence on neighboring cities that is waning. There
is no discernible variation in the radiation of each city to the surrounding areas according
to the gradual regional stability of the fault point scope in other cities.

Table 6. Proportion and field strength of fault points between cities in southern Xinjiang from 2010
to 2020.

2010 2020
City 1 City 2 Specific Gravity Specific Gravity
Field Strength Field Strength
of Breaking Point of Breaking Point
Korla Aksu 0.56 0.0209 0.54 0.036
Korla Artux 0.63 0.0052 0.58 0.01
Korla Kashgar city 0.54 0.0067 0.53 0.0112
Korla Hotan city 0.59 0.0061 0.59 0.0102
Korla Alaer 0.59 0.0188 0.57 0.0331
Korla Tumxuk 0.58 0.0099 0.54 0.0185
Aksu Artux 0.58 0.0212 0.54 0.0438
Aksu Kashgar city 0.48 0.0255 0.49 0.0453
Aksu Hotan city 0.54 0.0138 0.54 0.0248
Aksu Alaer 0.54 0.2872 0.53 0.5425
Aksu Tumxuk 0.52 0.0945 0.5 0.1896
Artux Kashgar city 0.4 2.1001 0.44 4.1759
Artux Hotan city 0.46 0.0105 0.5 0.0215
Artux Alaer 0.46 0.0112 0.49 0.0242
Artux Tumxuk 0.45 0.0399 0.46 0.0914
Kashgar city Hotan city 0.56 0.0193 0.56 0.0337
Kashgar city Alaer 0.56 0.0145 0.54 0.0264
Kashgar city Tumxuk 0.54 0.0455 0.51 0.088
Hotan Alaer 0.5 0.0184 0.49 0.0342
Hotan Tumxuk 0.48 0.0111 0.46 0.0221
Alaer Tumxuk 0.49 0.0622 0.47 0.1292

4.4.2. Urban Radius

Overall, the boundary field strength of the strong radiation circle in the northern
Xinjiang region is determined by the field strength at the fracture point between Urumqi and
Changji, while in the southern Xinjiang region, the boundary field strength is determined
by the field strength at the fracture point between Kashgar and Atush. There are principally
two causes: first off, the region’s two largest cities, Urumqi and Kashgar, have substantial
radiation capacities and comparatively powerful fields at their historical breakpoints;
second, based on the maximum permitted speed of the motorways, the real traffic distances
between the cities are 38.9 km and 44.3 km, respectively. This allows for considerable
economic radiation between the cities.
Since all cities, with the exception of the central city, have similar radiation intensities,
which can reflect how the city affects its surroundings, the average field strength at the
fracture point between other cities and nearby cities was selected as the weak radiation
circle’s boundary field strength. Due to the fact that the actual distance between the
northern Xinjiang region cities of Altay Ili, Korla Kashgar, Korla Hotan, and Korla Artux
is over 1000 km, the time difference exceeds 10 h, the transportation distance is too great,
and the economic radiation is difficult to access, it is excluded from the calculation of the
average field strength because it lacks statistical significance. Figure 7 indicates within- and
between-group differences in farmers’ livelihood capital before and after land transfer in
different modes.
As seen in Figures 8 and 9, this study is based on the spatial comparison of strong and
weak radiation radii as well as the trend of changes in strong and weak radiation radii in
various cities between 2010 and 2020. The findings reveal the following:
 which shows that the radiation scope of surrounding cities is expanding and the driving
role of surrounding cities is becoming more and more significant. In conclusion, it was
discovered that the radiation capacity of the cities of Yining, Changji, Karamay, and Kui-
tun has gradually increased while the position of Urumqi as the key city in northern Xin-
jiang has started to wane. Multiple core cities are emerging, and the cross-area of radiation
Land 2024, 13, 29 16 of 20
regions of other cities has gradually grown, showing that the trend of regional integration
development in northern Xinjiang is becoming more and more important.

Land 2024, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 18 of 22

Figure 8. Strong
Figure 8. Strong and
and weak
weak radiation
radiation range
range of
of cities
cities in
in northern
northern Xinjiang
Xinjiang from
from 2010
2010 to
to 2020.
2020.

Figure 9. Strong and weak radiation range of cities in southern Xinjiang from
from 2010
2010 to
to 2020.
2020.

The strongand
The strong andweak
weakradiation
radiation radii
radii of of Urumqi,
Artux Shihezi,have
and Tumxuk Yining, and Altay
all shown in the
an expand-
northern Xinjiang region have all decreased, indicating that the surrounding
ing trend, indicating that the radiation capacity of Artux and Tumxuk cities is gradually cities have
increased their radiation capacity. The expansion of the strong radiation
rising and the radiation range to neighboring cities is gradually expanding. These cities radius of Karamay,
Changji, and
are located in Kuitun showsXinjiang
the southern that theregion,
capacity of these
where cities isand
the strong gradually improving,
weak radiation radiithe
of
radiation capacity
Korla, Kashgar, is gradually
Aksu, increasing,
Hotan, and the strong
Alaer have all shownradiation radius oftrend.
a decreasing YiningAccording
and Fukang to
has no obvious change,
the aforementioned data,and the weak
Kashgar radiation
and Korla’s radiusposition
central is gradually
in the expanding, which
southern Xinjiang
shows that the radiation scope of surrounding cities is expanding and the driving role of
region has started to wane, while Tumxuk and Atush’s development has started to pick
surrounding cities is becoming more and more significant. In conclusion, it was discovered
up. This suggests that the cities in the southern Xinjiang region are beginning to exhibit
that the radiation capacity of the cities of Yining, Changji, Karamay, and Kuitun has
an integrated pattern.
gradually increased while the position of Urumqi as the key city in northern Xinjiang
has started to wane. Multiple core cities are emerging, and the cross-area of radiation
5. Discussion
regions of other cities has gradually grown, showing that the trend of regional integration
In the Xinjiang
development region,
in northern urban is
Xinjiang growth
becoming and more
construction
and more areimportant.
still in the planning and
construction stages. In this study, urban strength, attractiveness,
The strong and weak radiation radii of Artux and Tumxuk have all and link strength
shown are cal-
an expand-
culated and analyzed to reveal the factors that influence how cities in
ing trend, indicating that the radiation capacity of Artux and Tumxuk cities is gradually the urban agglom-
erationand
rising of northern and southern
the radiation range toXinjiang
neighboring develop
citiesinis
tandem.
gradually Theexpanding.
distinction between the
These cities
urban
are agglomerations
located in the southern in northern
Xinjiangand southern
region, whereXinjiang’s
the strongdifferent
and weakstages of develop-
radiation radii of
ment isKashgar,
Korla, reflectedAksu,
in theHotan,
forms of urban
and Alaerattraction
have allstructures. It represents
shown a decreasing the development
trend. According to
tendency
the of the urban
aforementioned agglomeration
data, Kashgar and of Korla’s
southern and northern
central positionXinjiang throughXinjiang
in the southern the lens
region has started to wane, while Tumxuk and Atush’s development has started tomight
of urban radiation. The findings demonstrate that the strength of urban connections pick
be limited by the distance between cities. However, to a certain extent, the comprehensive
strength of cities can increase the strength of urban spatial connections [42]. Differences
primarily distinguish the current development condition of cities in northern and south-
ern Xinjiang. This study analyzes these data and offers the following recommendations:
Land 2024, 13, 29 17 of 20

up. This suggests that the cities in the southern Xinjiang region are beginning to exhibit an
integrated pattern.

5. Discussion
In the Xinjiang region, urban growth and construction are still in the planning and
construction stages. In this study, urban strength, attractiveness, and link strength are
calculated and analyzed to reveal the factors that influence how cities in the urban agglom-
eration of northern and southern Xinjiang develop in tandem. The distinction between the
urban agglomerations in northern and southern Xinjiang’s different stages of development
is reflected in the forms of urban attraction structures. It represents the development
tendency of the urban agglomeration of southern and northern Xinjiang through the lens
of urban radiation. The findings demonstrate that the strength of urban connections might
be limited by the distance between cities. However, to a certain extent, the comprehensive
strength of cities can increase the strength of urban spatial connections [42]. Differences
primarily distinguish the current development condition of cities in northern and southern
Xinjiang. This study analyzes these data and offers the following recommendations:
(1) The northern and southern Xinjiang presents different types of urban agglomera-
tion patterns.
In the southern Xinjiang region, there is a great deal of space between cities, only one
major form of transportation, and poor economic growth. Kashgar and Korla have an
advantage in terms of the overall strength of the cities from 2010 to 2020. Cities like Aksu
and Tumxuk gradually grew as a result of economic growth. Based on the gravitational
structures of different cities in southern Xinjiang, it is possible to determine that the
urban agglomeration in this region is primarily concentrated around Kashgar and Korla,
with Aksu or Tumxuk serving as the secondary center. This region has a “2 + 1 + n”
urban agglomeration pattern, with two central cities, one sub-central city, and numerous
peripheral cities.
(2) There are individual special types of cities in both northern and southern Xinjiang.
In the study, it was discovered that the northern Xinjiang region’s Urumqi city and
Kashgar city have significant advantages in the area and have attracted a lot of interest
from neighboring cities. Since they are “leading cities” for regional growth, these cities can
be considered. We classify Yining city in the northern Xinjiang region and Korla city in the
southern Xinjiang region as “island cities” because of their strong comprehensive strengths
but remote locations relative to other cities in the area and lack of urban attraction. The
“Xinjiang New Urbanization Plan (2021–2035)” passed at the conference in 2021 proposed to
accelerate the construction of the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan
Mountains and focus on creating a “one circle, one belt, and one group” urban development
pattern [43]. Out of these, the northern Xinjiang region should center on Urumqi, establish
the Urumqi metropolitan area, propel the growth of neighboring cities like Changji and
Fukang, and use Yining city as the regional center to establish the northern Xinjiang urban
belt, linking cities like Kuitun, Tacheng, Bole, and Altay for coordinated, linked, and
integrated development; the southern Xinjiang region should center on Kashgar, establish
a southern Xinjiang urban agglomeration, radiating and propelling the development of
southern Xinjiang cities like Korla, Tiemenguan, and Tumushuke.
(3) Suggestions based on urban development in different regions.
This study believes that the urban agglomeration in northern Xinjiang can strengthen
the cluster development of small cities and strengthen the agglomeration role of large
cities [44]. For instance, the creation of a multi-center driving urban development model
with Urumqi serving as the stability center and Kuitun, Karamay, and Yining serving as
the sub-centers will enhance communication and cooperation between Urumqi, Kuitun,
Karamay, and Yining, forming a “golden triangle” of urban development in northern
Xinjiang. Among them, Kuitun has a favorable geographic location as it is situated in the
central portion of the region The economic growth of Kuitun should be strengthened, and
it is important to encourage the steady growth of the urban small circle into the urban
Land 2024, 13, 29 18 of 20

large circle. The southern Xinjiang region is more fragmented than the northern Xinjiang
region, with fewer gravitational crossings and poorer linkages between cities. In order to
reduce the “distance” between cities, prioritize the growth of small cities, and increase the
overall strength of cities, it is required to upgrade urban transportation infrastructure in the
southern Xinjiang region. Korla’s unique geographic position can also be used to realize
the urban development model connecting northern and southern Xinjiang.
Furthermore, although this study still has several shortcomings, it is a crucial avenue
for future investigation:
(1) Methodological limitations. There is still need for improvement in indicator selec-
tion, even though this work has enhanced the conventional gravity model and thoroughly
assessed urban quality utilizing the urban complete strength evaluation method. For
instance, urban gravity and clusters are significantly impacted by the degree of urban
economic growth, and the indicators used in the book to indicate this amount of devel-
opment need to be updated [45,46]. First off, the tourist sector is crucial to Xinjiang’s
economic growth. As such, the percentage of tourism earnings that goes toward economic
development needs to rise. Second, Xinjiang actively encourages the establishment of trade
zones and economic development zones as the hub of the Silk Road Economic Belt. Future
studies will pay more attention to how changes in logistics, transportation, finance, and
other factors affect regional urban connections and urban quality [47,48].
(2) There are restrictions when choosing a city. Xinjiang is split up into local areas
and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps. At the moment, Xinjiang is pushing
hard for the combination of local development and the military [49]. Subsequent studies
can emphasize the distinctions in the development models of local and Xinjiang Produc-
tion and Construction Corps cities, and it can be conducted locally specifically to make
recommendations.

6. Conclusions
The gravity level, radiation intensity, and radiation range of cities in northern Xinjiang
from 2010 to 2020 were investigated in this study using the improved comprehensive
gravity model, breakpoint model, and radiation radius model. Nine cities in the northern
Xinjiang region and seven cities in the southern Xinjiang region were chosen. The following
conclusions were reached:
(1) The quality and all-encompassing urban attraction of cities in northern and south-
ern Xinjiang demonstrated an improving tendency between 2010 and 2020. With various
urban agglomeration structures in the north and south of Xinjiang, the quality of cities and
the strength of urban links show a characteristic of “high in the north and low in the south”.
(2) Between 2010 and 2020, the strength of the geographical connections between the
cities in northern and southern Xinjiang gradually grew, with the strength of the connections
between the northern and southern cities being noticeably stronger. In northern Xinjiang,
the ranking of urban spatial connection intensity is comparatively steady. However, it
varies significantly in southern Xinjiang.
(3) Central cities’ dominance in both northern and southern Xinjiang is waning. Other
cities in the area, including Karamay, Kuitun, and Yining in northern Xinjiang, Tumushuke,
and Atushi in southern Xinjiang, are growing in size, their radiation capacity is rising
yearly, and their dependence on central cities is waning. Cities in northern and southern
Xinjiang are developing progressively in unison and coordination, and regional integration
is advancing.

Author Contributions: Conceptualization, D.L.; methodology, Y.W. and L.W.; software, Y.M. and
D.L.; validation, D.L. and L.X.; formal analysis, H.C.; investigation, Y.M.; resources, Y.W.; data
curation, D.L.; writing—original draft preparation, L.W. and D.L.; writing—review and editing,
Y.W.; visualization, L.X. and D.L.; supervision, Y.W. and L.W.; project administration, Y.W.; funding
acquisition, Y.W. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Land 2024, 13, 29 19 of 20

Funding: This research was funded by the special project for innovation and development of Shihezi
University (CXFZSK202105, CXFZ202217), the Program for Youth Innovation and Cultivation of
Talents of Shihezi University (CXPY202223, CXPY202121), and the Science and Technology Plan
Project of the Corps (2022DB023).
Data Availability Statement: The data presented in this study are available on request from the
corresponding author.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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