International Journal of

Environmental Research
and Public Health

Article
Urban Road Network Expansion and Its Driving
Variables: A Case Study of Nanjing City
Ge Shi 1,2,3,4 , Jie Shan 2, * , Liang Ding 5,6 , Peng Ye 1,3,4 , Yang Li 1,3,4 and Nan Jiang 1,3,4, *
1 School of Geographic Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210046, China
2 Lyles School of Civil Engineering, Purdue University, 550 Stadium Mall, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA
3 Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment, Ministry of Education, Nanjing Normal University,
Nanjing 210046, China
4 Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and
Application, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China
5 College of Computer and Information, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
6 Information Center of Jiangsu Natural Resources Department, Nanjing 210017, China
* Correspondence: jshan@purdue.edu (J.S.); njiang@njnu.edu.cn (N.J.); Tel.: +1-765-494-2168 (J.S.);
+86-25-8589-1902 (N.J.)




Received: 14 May 2019; Accepted: 27 June 2019; Published: 30 June 2019


Abstract: Developing countries such as China are undergoing rapid urban expansion and land
use change. Urban expansion regulation has been a significant research topic recently, especially
in Eastern China, with a high urbanization level. Among others, roads are an important spatial
determinant of urban expansion and have significant influences on human activities, the environment,
and socioeconomic development. Understanding the urban road network expansion pattern and
its corresponding social and environmental effects is a reasonable way to optimize comprehensive
urban planning and keep the city sustainable. This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics
of urban road growth and uses spatial statistic models to describe its spatial patterns in rapid
developing cities through a case study of Nanjing, China. A kernel density estimation model is used
to describe the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of the road network. A geographically weighted
regression (GWR) is applied to generate the social and environmental variance influenced by the
urban road network expansion. The results reveal that the distribution of the road network shows a
morphological character of two horizontal and one vertical concentration lines. From 2012 to 2016,
the density of the urban road network increased significantly and developed some obvious focus
centers. The development of the urban road network had a strong correlation with socioeconomic
and environmental factors, which however, influenced it at different degrees in different districts.
This study enhances the understanding of the effects of socio-economic and environmental factors on
urban road network expansion, a significant indicator of urban expansion, in different circumstances.
The study will provide useful understanding and knowledge to planning departments and other
decision makers to maintain sustainable development.

Keywords: urbanization; road network; PM2.5; spatial patterns; geographically weighted regression;
Nanjing

1. Introduction
Rapid urban expansion is an important period for developing countries due to the burgeoning
economy as well as the road network expansion [1]. The world’s urbanization rate has increased from
39% to 52% for the last three decades and is expected to reach around 66% by the year 2050. The increase
in urbanization in developing countries is much more rapid than in developed countries [2,3]. Managing

Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16, 2318; doi:10.3390/ijerph16132318 www.mdpi.com/journal/ijerph
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16, 2318 2 of 16

growing cities is both critical and complex. Urbanization development greatly increases convenience
for the residents but at the same time carries the risks of arable land shortage, over-population, traffic
congestion, food security problems, environmental pollution, public health threats, and so on [4,5]. For
this reason, research about the regulation of urban expansion has become even more significant in
order to keep the city sustainable. The road network, the skeleton of the urban space structure, is an
important driving force for space expansion and one of the key indicators of urban development [6,7].
Increasingly well-developed road networks have become common in modern cities recently [8]. A
comprehensive road network is built to bring different regions closer and accelerate the information
exchange between each space. However, the increasing road network cutting through the natural
environment may bring about biodiversity loss, a series of environmental issues, and further facilitate
urban sprawl [9]. Thus, road network development pushes local urban expansion to a certain degree;
but on the other hand, it may also be a consequence of urban development [10,11]. It cannot be
ignored that there is already a series of “city illnesses” due to rapid expansion, which have already
had side effects on public health. In order to explore the mechanisms of urban expansion to deal with
sustainable development, studying the patterns of road network expansion is a starting point. Remote
sensing technology and a series of models enable researchers to map the urbanization process and the
related social and environmental variables over vast areas.
Urban expansion regulation has been an important research topic for years, and scholars have
studied it from multiple perspectives. Existing studies about urban expansion are mainly about
economic development, built-up area growth, land use and cover change, and population growth,
which have been investigated using government statistic year books, Landsat remote sensing images,
and so on [12–15]. In more detail, the current studies are mainly of four types: (i) using remote
sensing images to extract the spatial boundary of urban expansion [16–19]; (ii) using dynamic models
to understand the spatiotemporal sprawl patterns [4,20,21]; (iii) using statistical models to uncover
the mechanisms, effects, and driving forces behind urban expansion [22,23]; (iv) using prediction
models such as the cellular automata model, agent based model, and clue model to simulate future
development [24–27]. Moreover, researchers have usually focused on the regulation on a large-scale
region from a macro perspective, and detailed studies about cities’ structural elements, such as road
network spatial characteristics, and changing patterns are relatively rare.
As an important part of urban expansion, road network expansion has caught the interest of
more scholars recently, as well as the secondary effects on ecology, urban landscape, land use and so
on [28,29]. The road network of China has experienced rapid growth period over the last few decades,
but theoretical research on it has only just been initiated in China, while it is widely studied in many
other countries. As early as the 1960s, Garrison [30] used graph theory to describe the static spatial
patterns of the transportation network from the perspective of geography, which method is still used in
many studies nowadays. Yang [6] predicted the traffic flow amount to model the road network changes
with a purpose to solve the mixed network design problem. Parthasarathi [31] and Levinson [32] used
statistical methods to examine road network expansion based on the current traffic demand and road
network data. Strano [33] characterized the road network growth pattern in the Groane area from
1833 to 2017 and found that the road network was expanding based on a pre-existing urban structure
with a high centrality. Michael Betty’s group studied London’s road network development over a
century from 1880 to 2013 by multiple methods to discover the growth patterns as well as the urban
sprawl [34–36]. For example, a complexity network model was applied to characterize the topological
and metrical patterns in a small scale region; space syntax was applied to discover the inner spatial
interaction patterns of road network like centrality, movement accessibility, integration, etc. [37] and
to explore the statistical laws between road network and urban sprawl. Rui and Ban [38] studied
the relationship between road network density and land use type and found that they were highly
correlated. Overall, studies on road networks have a long history with different perspectives, and the
research results are temporal and regional. Yet, few studies have investigated regional road network
evolution and its related social-economic and environmental influences locally. Chu used GWR to
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16, 2318 3 of 16

model the relationship between population and socio-economic growth described by nighttime light
data [39]. Most existing researches about urban growth in China have focused on developed coastal
cities and major metropolitan cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and so on [40–42],
and less attention has been paid to inland cities. However, urban expansion is a non-regular process
over space and time, which means the urban expansion patterns may vary between different places
and time periods [43]. Nanjing, one of the major cities of the Yangtze River Delta, is the capital city of
Jiangsu province, and Jiangsu province is one of the largest economic development provinces of China.
It has experienced a rapid development period recently, and its urban patterns change a lot. Some
researchers studied Nanjing’s expansion regulation from different perspectives like land use changes
and urban functional region changes [44–46]. However, the road network expansion and its variables
regulation still need further investigation.
The primary objective of this research is to fill the gap in the previous research by exploring the
regulation of urban growth during a rapid economic development period from the perspective of road
network expansion and its potential social and environmental influences in Nanjing from 2012 to 2016.
In doing so, the line density estimation model and other spatial analysis supported by ArcGIS (Esri
Inc., Redlands, CA, USA) technology were used to extract the spatiotemporal patterns of the road
network evolution. Then, the geographically weighted regression model was applied to discover the
relationship between urban road network expansion and other social and environmental changes. The
results and conclusions about the road network growth patterns and their potential influences aim
to provide useful suggestions for planning authorities that need to make right decisions in order to
maintain sustainable development during a fast urbanization and industrialization period in the same
or similar regions with a rapid growth trend.

2. Material and Methods

2.1. Study Area

Nanjing, “Ning” for short, a city with more than 2000 years of history and an ancient capital
city of six dynasties, is now the capital city of the Jiangsu province. Nanjing is an important political,
economic, and cultural center and is the second largest city in the Yangtze River Delta region with a
total area of 6597 km2 . Nanjing is located in the south part of Jiangsu province in Eastern China in the
northern subtropical climate zone with four well classified seasons and an annual average temperature
of 15 ◦ C. It is located between longitude 118◦ 220 E to 119◦ 140 E and latitude 30◦ 140 N to 32◦ 370 N
(Figure 1). There are 11 administrative districts in the Nanjing metropolitan area divided into Jiangnan
south of and Jiangbei north of the Yangtze River, running from southwest to northeast. Jiangnan district
includes Xuanwu District, Qinhuai District, Jianye District, Gulou District, Qixia District, Yuhuatai
District, and Jiangning District, while Jiangbei District includes Pukou District and Liuhe District. The
remaining two districts located in the suburban area are Lishui District and Gaochun District. As of
2016, the permanent population is 8,335,000 of which the urban population is 6,858,900 or 82.3% of
the total population. The regional GDP is 1282.04 billion Chinese Yuan [47]. There is an increasingly
serious conflict between human social development and natural sustainability at this high urbanization
level and rapid development speed.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16, 2318 4 of 16
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16, x FOR PEER REVIEW 4 of 16

Figure 1. The research area and the

the distributions
distributions of
of administrative
administrative districts
districts in
in Nanjing.
Nanjing.

2.2.
2.2. Data
Data and
and Preprocessing
Preprocessing

•• Road
RoadNetwork
Network Data
Data
Thispaper
This paperuses
usesthe
theroad
road network
network data
data of Nanjing
of Nanjing for 2012
for 2012 and and
2016,2016, provided
provided by theby the National
National Earth
System Science Data Sharing Infrastructure (http://www.geodata.cn), Yangtze River Delta Science Delta
Earth System Science Data Sharing Infrastructure (http://www.geodata.cn), Yangtze River Data
Science(http://nnu.geodata.cn:8008)
Center Data Center (http://nnu.geodata.cn:8008) [48],aswhich
[48], which serves serves
Nanjing’s as Nanjing’s
basic geographicbasic
map.geographic
However,
map.
the However,
data does notthe data does
provide not grades
the road provide thetypes
and roadlike
grades and
artery types
roads like artery
or branch roads
roads, thusorthe
branch
road
roads, thus the road network in this paper refers to all types of roads in Nanjing aggregated
network in this paper refers to all types of roads in Nanjing aggregated together. All images provided
together.
are under All
theimages
WGS1984 provided are under
coordinate system.the WGS1984 coordinate system.

•• City
CityBoundary
Boundary Data
Data
This paper
This paperuses
uses
citycity boundary
boundary data data of Jiangsu
of Jiangsu province
province from thefrom the Science
National National Science &
& Technology
Technology Infrastructure
Infrastructure of China,
of China, National National
Earth SystemEarth System
Science Data Science
Sharing Data Sharing Infrastructure
Infrastructure (http://www.
(http://www.geodata.cn)
geodata.cn) [48]. [48].

•• Social
Socialand
andEconomic
Economic Data
Data
This paper
This paperuses
usesJiangsu
JiangsuStatistical
Statistical Yearbook
Yearbook datadata
andand
ChinaChina
CityCity Statistical
Statistical YearbookYearbook data
data from
from 1996 to 2016, from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. This dataset is provided
1996 to 2016, from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. This dataset is provided by the National by the
National
Earth Earth
System System
Science Science
Data SharingData Sharing Infrastructure
Infrastructure (http://www.geodata.cn),
(http://www.geodata.cn), Yangtze RiverYangtze River
Delta Science
DeltaCenter
Data Science Data Center (http://nnu.geodata.cn:8008),
(http://nnu.geodata.cn:8008), which provides thewhich
Jiangsuprovides
province’sthe Jiangsu
annual province’s
socioeconomic
annual [48].
dataset socioeconomic
This datasetdataset
includes[48]. This dataset
statistical includes
information of all statistical information
cities in Jiangsu province of and
all includes
cities in
Jiangsu province
economic, and includesagricultural,
social, demographic, economic, urban
social,construction,
demographic, agricultural,and
environmental, urban otherconstruction,
related city
environmental, and other related city statistics. This data reflects the yearly economic and social
development statistics of Jiangsu province. The storage format is the Excel file.
• Particulate Matter 2.5 Concentration Data
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16, 2318 5 of 16

statistics. This data reflects the yearly economic and social development statistics of Jiangsu province.
The storage format is the Excel file.
• Particulate Matter 2.5 Concentration Data
There are 9 monitoring stations in Nanjing city, including the Olympic center station, Caochang
gate station, Maigao bridge station, Pukou district station, Ruijin road station, Shanxi road station,
Xianlin district station, Xuanwu Lake station, and Zhonghua gate station. The daily levels of PM2.5 at
each station were obtained from the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) [49]. The annual
averages of PM2.5 levels of each district in Nanjing were generated in ArcGIS (Esri Inc., Redlands,
CA, USA).

2.3. Methods

2.3.1. Line Density Estimation Model

To study the spatial distribution of the road network, we explored whether the road network
distributed even across the city and where are the concentration points. To answer the above
questions, the distribution map is hard to draw, thus, we employed a line density model to describe its
concentration at a regional scale. The line density estimation model is used to describe density of the
linear features in the neighborhood of the designed output raster cell. The length of the portion that
falls within the raster cell as the total road network considered in this unit was calculated [50]. The
calculation formula is as follows: Pn
Lk
LDi = 1 (1)
A
where, LDi is the road network line density in year i; L stands for the length of the portion of roads that
falls in the unit k; and A is the area of total unit.

2.3.2. Road Network Expansion Rate

The road network expansion rate of Nanjing city was measured by calculating the total change
of road network in the study area. This index shows the average annual growth rate of the urban
road network over the study period. If this value is above zero, the corresponding research period is
experiencing an expansion time. Otherwise, if the value is below zero, it is experiencing a loss period.
The calculation formula is shown as below:
RLn+i − RLn
ER = (2)
i
where ER refers to the road network expansion rate from year n to year n + i; RLn+i refers to the total
length of road network in year n + i in kilometer; and RLn refers to the total length of road network in
year n in kilometer.

2.3.3. Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) Model

The previous studies discovered that urban expansion and environmental issues have a significant
correlation but vary over different regions and changes with spatial context to various degree. The
geographically weighted regression (GWR) model is widely used to explore the spatial variables [51].
Compared with other traditional widely used linear or nonlinear regression models, the GWR model
adds the spatial variation in this regression model coefficients, which resulted in improving the
estimation accuracy significantly. As we discovered in this study, previous studies have shown a lot
about the correlations between road network expansion and human–land related elements, they differ
in different districts. Therefore, it is necessary to estimate the local level concentration of road network
growth based on social and environment variables. This study considered the GDP of first second and
third industries, PM2.5 concentration level, and population as the most affected elements of urban
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16, 2318 6 of 16
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16, x FOR PEER REVIEW 6 of 16

road network expansion, as the parameters entered into the GWR model. The GWR model estimates
the parameter for a given location (ui , vi ) by a weighted least squares method, expressed as follows:
𝑦 = 𝛿 (𝑢 , 𝑣 ) + 𝛿 (𝑢 , 𝑣 )𝑥 + 𝜇 (3)
X p

where, 𝑦 is the dependent yivariable = δ0 (ui , vchange

i) + δk (uroad
of ik + µi
i , vi )xnetwork; 𝑥 (k = 1, 2,…, 5) are(3)the
k =1
independent variables, including GDP of agriculture, GDP of industry, GDP of service sector,
PM2.5yi concentration
where, is the dependent level and population;
variable change of road , 𝑣 ) is the
(𝑢 network; xik spatial coordinate
(k = 1, 2, . . . , 5) areof
thesample point i;
independent
𝛿 (𝑢 , 𝑣 including
variables, ) stands for
GDPtheofregression
agriculture,parameters of sample
GDP of industry, GDP point 𝑖 (i = sector,
of service 1, 2, 3,……,PM2.5n); and 𝜇 is the
concentration
random error of each individual sample point. In the process of modeling, the bandwidth
level and population; (ui , vi ) is the spatial coordinate of sample point i; δk (ui , vi ) stands for the regression is an
parameters of sample point i (i = 1, 2, 3, . . . . . . , n); and µi is the random error of each individual to
important parameter to control the degree of smoothing; we applied the adaptive kernel method
decidepoint.
sample the bandwidth [52,53].
In the process of modeling, the bandwidth is an important parameter to control the
degree of smoothing; we applied the adaptive kernel method to decide the bandwidth [52,53].
3. Results
3. Results
3.1. Spatial Patterns of the Road Network
3.1. Spatial Patterns of the Road Network
The road network distribution of Nanjing in 2012 and 2016 was taken as the case study. The
spatial road
The network
distribution distribution
patterns of the of Nanjing
road network in 2012 and 2016 based
are generated was takenon theasline
the density
case study. The
estimation
spatial
model distribution
(Figure 2).patterns of the
It revealed road
that thenetwork are generated
distribution is unevenbased
acrossonthe thecity,
line and
density estimation
there is obvious
model (Figure 2).
concentration It revealed
to the south ofthat
the the distribution
Yangtze River, withis uneven
some ofacross the city,regions
the densest and there
spreadis obvious
along the
concentration
Yangtze River, and then gradually dispersed to the periphery. The overall distribution of thethe
to the south of the Yangtze River, with some of the densest regions spread along road
Yangtze
network River,
showsandathen gradually dispersed
morphological character toof the
twoperiphery.
horizontalThe
andoverall distribution
one vertical of the road
concentration lines.
network
There isshows
no doubta morphological
that the downtowncharacter
areaofhas
twothehorizontal andnetwork
highest road one vertical
density,concentration
which was lines.
mainly
There is no doubt
distributed that thedistrict,
in Xuanwu downtown area district
Qinhuai has the and
highest
the road network
east part density,
of Jianye which
district wasyear
in the mainly
2012.
distributed
It is clear in Xuanwu
to see the district,
high Qinhuai
density district
districtand the east part
expanded untilof 2016,
Jianye mainly
district in the year
around the2012. It
former
is high-density
clear to see the high density district expanded until 2016, mainly around the former
region. In the suburban regions like the Liuhe district, Lishui district, and Gaochun high-density
region. In there
district the suburban
are someregions like the
small-scale Liuhe district,
aggregations. TheLishui district,
expansion andisGaochun
trend obvious district there arethe
by comparing
some
twosmall-scale
period’s maps, aggregations.
and a deeperThe comparison
expansion trend
of theischanges
obvious will
by comparing
be analyzed theintwo
the period’s maps,
next section.
and a deeper comparison of the changes will be analyzed in the next section.

Figure 2. Line density of the road network in Nanjing. (a) Line density of road network in 2012; (b)
Figure 2. Line density of the road network in Nanjing. (a) Line density of road network in 2012; (b)
Line density of road network in 2016.
Line density of road network in 2016.

3.2. Expansion Patterns of the Road Network

Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16, 2318 7 of 16

Int.
3.2.J. Expansion
Environ. Res.Patterns
Public Health 2019,
of the 16, xNetwork
Road FOR PEER REVIEW 7 of 16

Using Nanjing
Using Nanjing Yearbooks
Yearbooks since since 1978
1978 [54],
[54], we
we found
found information
information about about the
the construction
construction of of the
the
road network (Figure 3). China has experienced a rapid social and
road network (Figure 3). China has experienced a rapid social and economic development since the economic development since
the Reform
Reform andand Open Open Program
Program was was established
established inin1978.
1978.Urban
Urbaninfrastructure
infrastructureconstruction
construction has has also
also
undergone a correspondingly large development in order to meet
undergone a correspondingly large development in order to meet the increasing social need. the increasing social need. Through
this time period,
Through this time the construction
period, of the roadofnetwork
the construction the roadinnetwork
Nanjingin increased,
Nanjing while in 1980
increased, andin
while 1981
1980it
slightly
and 1981recessed
it slightlybecause
recessedthebecause
agriculture industry was
the agriculture the support
industry was the industry
support at industry
that time,atandthatarable
time,
land accounted for the major land use type. From 1982 to 1990,
and arable land accounted for the major land use type. From 1982 to 1990, the road networkthe road network construction began
to slowly increase,
construction began while economic
to slowly development
increase, while economic also occurred
developmentat a lowalsopace.
occurredThen,aturbanization
a low pace.
construction began to take place and rapidly expanded until 2005,
Then, urbanization construction began to take place and rapidly expanded until 2005, with with an average road length growth an
rate of 866 km per year and an area expansion rate of 10,484,000 m 2 per year. From 2005 to 2010, the
average road length growth rate of 866 km per year and an area expansion rate of 10,484,000 m2 per
lengthFrom
year. of the2005
roadtonetwork
2010, the decreased
length ofatthe a rate
roadofnetwork
106.6 kmdecreased
per year, as at the urbanization
a rate of 106.6 km rate
pertended
year, asto
reduce during that period. During the same time period, the city-loop
the urbanization rate tended to reduce during that period. During the same time period, the expressway underwent upgrade
construction,
city-loop resultingunderwent
expressway in the reduction
upgrade of construction,
its length, and some transportation
resulting in the reduction landof was converted
its length, and
into other types of land use under the Intensive Land Use policy [20,55].
some transportation land was converted into other types of land use under the Intensive Land Use However, Nanjing City was
still undergoing
policy a huge urbanization
[20,55]. However, Nanjing City and was infrastructure
still undergoing construction period, thus,
a huge urbanization andthe area of the
infrastructure
road network still expanded at a speed of 4.2908 million m 2 per year. Since 2010, urban construction
construction period, thus, the area of the road network still expanded at a speed of 4.2908 million
has
m been
2 per characterized
year. Since 2010,as beingconstruction
urban in a maturity hasphase
been[56], the expansion
characterized rate in
as being of athe road network
maturity has
phase [56],
reduced but still increases by hundreds of kilometers per year as is the
the expansion rate of the road network has reduced but still increases by hundreds of kilometers area of the road network. From
2012year
per to 2014, the area
as is the length growth
of the roadrate decreased
network. Frombut 2012 thetoarea
2014,growth
the lengthrate growth
increased rateasdecreased
construction but
mainly focused on widening the existing roads, rather than adding
the area growth rate increased as construction mainly focused on widening the existing roads, new roads. From 2014 to 2016, both
the length
rather thangrowth
addingrate newand the From
roads. area growth
2014 torate2016,decreased
both theby moregrowth
length than 25% rateasandurban
the construction
area growth
became sophisticated and road network construction gradually
rate decreased by more than 25% as urban construction became sophisticated and road became stable. The spatial patterns
network of
road network development from 2012 to 2016, this relatively developed
construction gradually became stable. The spatial patterns of road network development from 2012 period, will be focused on in
the2016,
to following sections.developed period, will be focused on in the following sections.
this relatively

9,000 160
8,000 140
7,000
Area (square kilometer)

120
6,000
Length (kilometer)

100
5,000
80
4,000
60
3,000
2,000 40

1,000 20
0 0
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2012
2014
2016

Length (km) Area (square kilometer)

Figure 3. The
The length
length and
and area
area of road network in Nanjing.

From 2012
2012 to
to 2016,
2016,thetheroad
roadnetwork
networkexpanded
expandedbyby1397.07
1397.07km kmininlength
lengthand
and32.2477 million
32.2477 m2m
million in2
area.
in ToTo
area. further analyze
further analyze thethe
two
twophases
phasesof road network
of road networkmaps,
maps,wewe employed
employed thethe
spatial analysis
spatial of
analysis
ArcGIS
of ArcGISsoftware to find
software out the
to find outspatial distribution
the spatial of expansion
distribution of the of
of expansion road
thenetwork from 2012
road network to 2012
from 2016
(Figure 4). The 4).
to 2016 (Figure spatial
The distribution map reveals
spatial distribution that there
map reveals thatwas uneven
there expansion
was uneven across the
expansion citythe
across to
different
city degrees.degrees.
to different To be specific,
To be the metropolitan
specific, center (Gulou
the metropolitan District,
center (GulouXuanwu District,
District, and District,
Xuanwu Qinhuai
District)
and had relatively
Qinhuai low relatively
District) had expansion,lowwhile the sub-centers
expansion, while the(Pukou District,(Pukou
sub-centers Qixia District,
District,Lishui
Qixia
District, Lishui District, and Gaochun District) and the surrounding downtown area (Jianye District,
Yuhuatai District, and the southern part of Qinhuai District) had significant expansion
concentration. The concentration along the major high way was also obvious in order to make the
connection with local regions closer.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16, 2318 8 of 16

District, and Gaochun District) and the surrounding downtown area (Jianye District, Yuhuatai District,
Int. the
and J. Environ. Res. Public
southern part Health 2019, 16,District)
of Qinhuai x FOR PEER
hadREVIEW 8 of 16
significant expansion concentration. The concentration
along the major high way was also obvious in order to make the connection with local regions closer.

Figure 4. Spatial distribution of road network growth in Nanjing from 2012 to 2016 (Unit: km/km2 ).
Figure 4. Spatial distribution of road network growth in Nanjing from 2012 to 2016 (Unit: km/km2).
3.3. Socio-Economic and Environmental Development of Nanjing
3.3. Socio-Economic and Environmental Development of Nanjing
Rapid urban expansion in a short period may bring about numerous “urban illnesses”, such as
shortage Rapid urban resources,
of natural expansionenvironmental
in a short period may bring
pollution, urban about numerous congestion,
transportation “urban illnesses”,
raising such
livingas
shortage
cost, and soofonnatural resources,
[57]. Thus, environmental
understanding the urbanpollution,
system urban transportation
is becoming important.congestion,
In general,raising
road
living cost,
network and soison
expansion [57]. Thus,
probably understanding
caused the urban
by social factors system is department
or government becoming important.
decisions, In general,
affecting
roaddevelopment.
social network expansion is probably
Usually, the factorscaused
not onlyby affect
socialroad factors or government
network expansiondepartment
but are also decisions,
affected
byaffecting
the roadsocial
networkdevelopment. Usually,
system, as well the factors not
as environmental only Road
issues. affectnetwork
road network expansion
development and but are
social
alsoenvironmental
and affected by factors
the road network
influence eachsystem,
other toasa different
well as degree.
environmental issues.weRoad
In this study, network
consider the
development
social factors ofand social development
economic and environmental factors influence
and population and theeach other to a different
environmental factor of degree. In this
air pollution
asstudy,
the most weimportant
considerfactors
the social factors oftheeconomic
when analyzing influencingdevelopment
factors withinand population
a short time scale,and which the
environmental
will be discussedfactor of airanalysis
by spatial pollution as thedetail
in more mostbelow.
important factors when analyzing the influencing
factors within atoshort
According time scale,
the census reportwhich
andwill
the be discussed
Nanjing by spatial
Yearbook analysis
in 2016 [54], in
themore
GDP detail below.
information
Accordingoftoeach
and population the district
census inreport andare
Nanjing theshown
Nanjing Yearbook
in Figure 5. Ininthe
2016 [54], the region,
downtown GDP information
GDP has
a and
highpopulation of each with
linear correlation district
theinpopulation.
Nanjing areHowever,
shown in in Figure 5. In the downtown
the suburban area of Qixia region, GDP
District has
and
a high linear
Jiangnin correlation
District, a high GDP withwith
the apopulation.
low populationHowever,is seen,in which
the suburban
is caused area
byof theQixia District and
distribution of
Jiangnin
heavy District,
industry. a high
Based onGDP with a low population
the environmental report [49], is seen, whichair
the major is caused
pollution by in
theNanjing
distribution
is theof
heavyconcentration.
PM2.5 industry. Based on the
Thus, weenvironmental
collected the PM2.5reportconcentration
[49], the major air from
data pollution
2016 in to Nanjing
describeisthe the
PM2.5
air qualityconcentration. Thus,
of each district we collected
in Nanjing. Theretheare
PM2.5
nineconcentration data from
air quality sensor 2016
stations into describewhich
Nanjing, the air
quality
are of eachCenter
the Olympic districtstation,
in Nanjing. ThereGate
Caochang are nine air Maigao
station, quality Bridge
sensor station,
stations Pukou
in Nanjing,
station,which
Ruijinare
the Olympic
Road CenterRoad
station, Shanxi station, Caochang
station, Xianlin Gate station,
District station, Maigao
Xuanwu Bridge
Lakestation,
station, Pukou station, Gate
and Zhonghua Ruijin
Road station,
station. Although Shanxi Road station,
air pollution shouldXianlin District by
be determined station, Xuanwu
spatially Lake information
continuous station, and on Zhonghua
PM2.5
Gate station. in
concentration, Although
this studyairwepollution
used theshould
sensorbe determined
station by spatially
data to describe continuous
the air information
quality situation in theon
PM2.5 concentration,
observed in thisconcentration
districts. The PM2.5 study we used thedistricts
of each sensor was station data to(Figure
calculated describe the we
6), and air found
quality
situation
that there isina the observed
strong districts.
correlation The different
between PM2.5 concentration
districts, andof each
the districts
records in thewas calculated
downtown (Figure
area are
6), and we found that there is a strong correlation between different districts, and the records in the
downtown area are higher than those in suburban regions. This high PM2.5 level can not only be
the result of population concentration, traffic demand growth, new construction, human activity
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16, 2318 9 of 16

higher
Int.
than those in suburban regions. This high PM2.5 level can not only be the result of population
Int. J.J. Environ.
Environ. Res.
Res. Public
Public Health
Health 2019,
2019, 16,
16, xx FOR
FOR PEER
PEER REVIEW
REVIEW 99 of
of 16
16
concentration, traffic demand growth, new construction, human activity concentration, and so on but
also are the reason
concentration, andofsothe
onabove elements.
but also Thus, the
are the reason of PM2.5 levelelements.
the above is both the reason
Thus, theand the level
PM2.5 causeisofboth
the
road network expansion.
the reason and the cause of the road network expansion.

population GDP
1,400 1,800

GDP (Million Chinese Yuan)

Population (Thousand People)

1,200 1,600
1,400
1,000
1,200
800 1,000
600 800
600
400
400
200 200
0 0

Figure 5.
Figure 5. Population
Population and
and total
total GDP.
GDP.

250

200

150

100

50

Olympic Center Caochang Gate Maigao Bridge

Pukou Ruijin Rd Shanxi Rd
Xianlin Xuanwu Lake Zhonghua Gate

Figure 6.
Figure 6. Value
Value of
of PM2.5
PM2.5 of
of each
each site
site in
in 2016
2016 unit:
unit: µg/m3.
μg/m³.

Industry
Industry structure
structure (see
(see Figures
Figures 77 and
and 8)
8) is
is another
another important
important symbol
symbol to to express
express thethe local
local
development
development situation. Nanjing has
situation. Nanjing has experienced
experienced rapid economic
economic development,
development, and and the
the industrial
industrial
structure
structure isis also
also constantly
constantly being
being optimized. From 1978
optimized. From 1978 toto 2016, the proportion of first first industry
industry
(agriculture)
(agriculture) decreased rapidly, and some districts like Xuanwu District, Qinhuai District, Jianye
decreased rapidly, and some districts like Xuanwu District, Qinhuai District, Jianye
District,
District, Gulou
Gulou District
District Yuhuatai
Yuhuatai District,
District, and
and Qixia
Qixia District
District in
in the
the metropolitan
metropolitan area
area have
have nono first
first
industry. The proportion of the second industry (industry) also decreased a bit,
industry. The proportion of the second industry (industry) also decreased a bit, while the while the proportion of
the third industry (services) continued to improve, especially in the downtown region.
proportion of the third industry (services) continued to improve, especially in the downtown region. Until 2016, the
industrial
Until 2016,structure of Nanjing
the industrial city had
structure of formed
Nanjinga situation
city had in which aservices
formed were
situation in the mainservices
which contributors
were
the main contributors in metropolitan districts; industries and services were the main contributors
in suburban districts; and agriculture was a supplementary industry.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16, 2318 10 of 16

Int. J. Environ. Res.

in metropolitan Public Health
districts; 2019, 16,and
industries x FOR PEER REVIEW
services were the main contributors in suburban districts; 10
andof 16
agriculture was a supplementary industry.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16, x FOR PEER REVIEW 10 of 16
100%
90%
100%
80%
90%
70%
80%
60%
70%
50%
60%
40%
50%
30%
40%
20%
30%
10%
20%
10%0%
0%

Third Industry Second Industry First Industry

Third Industry Second Industry First Industry
Figure 7. The industrial structure of each district in Nanjing.
Figure 7. The industrial structure of each district in Nanjing.
Figure 7. The industrial structure of each district in Nanjing.

Figure 8. The spatial distribution of industrial structure of each district in Nanjing.

Figure 8. The spatial distribution of industrial structure of each district in Nanjing.
3.4. Road Network Expansion in Relation to Its Driven Variables
Figure 8. The spatial distribution of industrial structure of each district in Nanjing.
3.4. Roadthe
With Network
supportExpansion
of ArcGIS in Relation to Its Driven
technology, we built Variables
a regression model between road network
3.4. Road
expansions Network
Withfrom Expansion
2012 to 2016
the support in Relation
and other
of ArcGIS to Its Driven
variableswe
technology, Variables
separately to determine
built a regression whether
model between there are network
road some
districts that have a weak correlation with the variables. According to the model result,there
the local R2
expansions from
With the support 2012 to 2016 and other variables separately to determine
of ArcGIS technology, we built a regression model between road network whether are some
anddistricts
adjusted local 2
R are all higher thanwith 0.7. the
Thevariables.
value of According
the standard
expansions thatfromhave2012a toweak
2016correlation
and other variables separately to determine to residual
thewhether
model forresult,
road the
network
there are local R2
some
expansion and each
and adjusted variance
local R are
2 were
all mapped
higher (see
thanthe 0.7.Figure 9). We
The value ofobserved that some
the standard districts
residual havenetwork
for the
road very
districts that have a weak correlation with variables. According to the model result, local R2
high residual values
expansion and (higher
each than
variance 2.5)
were with unusual
mapped explanations.
(see Figure 9). To
We be specific,
observed Lishui
that (see
some Figure
districts9b),
have
and adjusted local R2 are all higher than 0.7. The value of the standard residual for road network
located in
very highthe southern
residual part of Nanjing,
values (higher is an important
than 2.5)(see with transportation
unusual hub
explanations. and logistics
To be center
specific, in
Lishuithe
(see
expansion and each variance were mapped Figure 9). We observed that some districts have
East China9b),
Figure region. Theinmajor
located the economic
southern support
part of there isisbased
Nanjing, an on agriculture,
important tourism hub
transportation and and
new-type
logistics
very high residual values (higher than 2.5) with unusual explanations. To be specific, Lishui (see
center
Figure inlocated
9b), the EastinChina region. The
the southern part major economic
of Nanjing, is ansupport
important there is based on agriculture,
transportation tourism
hub and logistics
and new-type industrial parks. From the above analysis, road network
center in the East China region. The major economic support there is based on agriculture, tourism expansion in Lishui was
found to lag behind the other districts a lot as this region already
and new-type industrial parks. From the above analysis, road network expansion in Lishui was has a sufficient transportation
found to lag behind the other districts a lot as this region already has a sufficient transportation
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16, 2318 11 of 16

industrial parks. From the above analysis, road network expansion in Lishui was found to lag behind
Int. J. Environ.
the other Res. Public
districts a lotHealth 2019,
as this 16, x FOR
region PEER REVIEW
already has a sufficient transportation network to support 11 of 16 the

local industry. Therefore, the distribution of road network expansion cannot be explained well by the
network to support the local industry. Therefore, the distribution of road network expansion cannot
development of the second industry in Lishui. Jiangning District, located to the south of the downtown
be explained well by the development of the second industry in Lishui. Jiangning District, located
area,to
wasthealso found
south of thetodowntown
have a high standard
area, residual
was also value
found to haveofa the
highthird industry,
standard PM2.5
residual valueconcentration
of the
and population
third industry, PM2.5 concentration and population density. Due to the Nanjing Comprehensiveis one
density. Due to the Nanjing Comprehensive Planning 2020, Jiangning District
of the major new-built
Planning 2020, Jiangning residential
District is areas,
one ofwhich wasnew-built
the major plannedresidential
in order areas,
to release
whichthewaspressure
planned from
the downtown area, where
in order to release the population
the pressure densityarea,
from the downtown is relatively
where thehigh [56]. Thus,
population densitythe expansion of
is relatively
high network
the road [56]. Thus,inthe expansionDistrict
Jiangning of the road
maynetwork
mainlyinbeJiangning
a result District
of policymay mainly beMoreover,
changes. a result of there
policy
is more changes.
green landMoreover,
and natural there is more green
resource land and and
in Jiangning, natural
thusresource
the airinquality
Jiangning, and thus
is better thanthein the
air quality is better than in the downtown area. The development of the third
downtown area. The development of the third industry is stable without significant change. Thus, the industry is stable
without significant change. Thus, the distribution of road network expansion in Jiangning District
distribution of road network expansion in Jiangning District cannot be well explained by the third
cannot be well explained by the third industry, PM2.5 concentration or population density. Overall,
industry, PM2.5 concentration or population density. Overall, the districts with normal standard
the districts with normal standard residual values that range from −2.5 to 2.5 are the majority of the
residual
whole values thatcity,
Nanjing range which −2.5 tothat
fromreflects 2.5 are
the the majoritybetween
correlations of the whole
road Nanjing
network city, whichand
expansion reflects
air that
the correlations between road network expansion and
quality, industrial structure, and population density are stable. air quality, industrial structure, and population
density are stable.

Figure 9. The standard residual map of the relationship between road network expansion and selected
variables by geographically weighted regression. (a) The first industry; (b) The second industry; (c)
The third industry; (d) PM2.5 index; (e) Population.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16, 2318 12 of 16

To further investigate the relation between road network expansion and the variables, the
multi-variance GWR was computed. The value of local R2 and the adjusted local R2 were 0.812 and
0.815, respectively, which are larger than each of the individual GWR models above. The local models
showed statistical significance with the p value lower than 0.05 Plus, the standard residuals were all
below 2.5, which shows that this model performs well with the supposed variables.
The coefficient and standard error (see Table 1) show a more detailed relationship. The computed
results demonstrate that the first industry and second industry have a positive correlation with the
road network expansion, while the third industry, PM2.5 concentration, and population density have a
negative correlation. The second industry has the largest coefficient among all the variables. Therefore,
the second industry accounts for the major cause of road network expansion; this is because, as the
local governments develop the economy, more convenient transportation is needed to further promote
it. The first industry accounts for the second cause, because the region with more agricultural area is
usually considered as the less developed region with a low road network density. There is no arable
land in downtown Nanjing with a higher road network expansion rate. Therefore, the less organized
region with more arable land may have more road network construction. The same situation applies
with the population density variable. Although the district with a higher population may have a
demand for a larger road network, there is a certain time lag between the interaction, and the policy
plan has a large impact on the project construction. Nanjing city has experienced rapid economic and
urban growth and is now the core region of the Yangtze River Delta region. Its road network expansion
pattern and influences should be carefully considered to maintain sustainable development.

Table 1. Key parameters derived from the GWR models with combination explanatory variable.

Variables Coefficient Standard Error (Unit: km)

First industry 0.32 0.024
Second industry 0.47 0.001
Third industry −0.15 0.001
PM2.5 concentration −0.29 0.021
Population density −0.17 0.028

4. Discussion
Most cities have experienced a rapid urbanization period as well as economic development since
the Reform and Opening up policy in 1978, especially the developed cities in Eastern China like
Nanjing. This rapid urbanization has been greatly attributed to the road network expansion. To reduce
over-construction and plan properly, we investigated the spatial patterns of the road network and
its expansion trend and applied the GWR model to find out the correlation between the social and
environmental influences. Most of the associations between the road network and other social and
environmental influences considered are as expected. Therefore, there is sufficient reason to consider
that during the recent developing period in Nanjing, the places with higher first and second industries
and relatively lower third industry percentage and population and less air pollution would have more
road network expansion.
In China, road network construction is primarily based on planning by the transportation
department, mainly according to the research about regional accessibility [58,59]. Human activity,
environmental changes and economic development all have a strong impact on road network expansion
but at different scales with the different regions’ local development plans. Therefore, some districts
with low population may have high rates of road network expansion, while the high-density districts
with a large GDP value could have lower expansion rates for multiple reasons. In Nanjing, where the
metropolitan areas have a large population, high GDP value, relatively higher PM2.5 concentration, and
large proportions of third industry, the road network is already extensive, thus, it has had a relatively
low expansion rate in the recent study period. However, looking at the suburban centers in Nanjing
(Jiangning District, Lishui District, Gaochun District, Qixia District, Liuhe District and Pukou District),
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16, 2318 13 of 16

the proportion of first and second industries are both high, and population density is relatively low,
and their road network expansion rate showed an increasing trend recently. In addition, the air quality,
GDP values, industry structure, and population growth are not only the influencing factors of road
network expansion but are also the result of it. They influence each other at different scales in different
aspects [60]. From the perspective of urban management, the road network is a complex system, which
impacts humanity’s daily lives directly. The existing research mainly explores the quantity spatial
patterns, whereas this study provides a method of using the geographically weighted regression model
for looking into the influencing factors. This correlation provides effective measures for policy makers
to consider the balance between new urban construction and existing development to reduce the waste
and potential negative effects.

5. Conclusions
In this study, taking the road network of Nanjing for 2012 and 2016 as an example, we analyzed
the temporal and spatial patterns of the road network distribution, its dynamic patterns, and potential
social and environmental influences through a mathematical and spatial model. To be specific, we
analyzed the road network line density spatially, road network expansion rate, and the correlation
between road network expansion and the industry structure, PM2.5 concentration and population
distribution. From the discussions above, the following main conclusions were reached:

(1) The distribution of the road network appears uneven in Nanjing, where the downtown area has
the highest road network density, which decreases out to the periphery. The Yangtze River divides
the city and the road network concentration into two clear parts. In the southern part, there
are one clear downtown center and two sub-centers. The overall layout shows a morphological
character of two horizontal and one vertical spatial road network distributions.
(2) Since 1990, the expansion of the road network has occurred to different degrees across Nanjing
City. The expansion continues while the expansion rate has declined since 2012. From 2012 to
2016, the expansion mainly happened in the suburban area near the downtown region due to the
new district construction planning.
(3) The GWR spatial analysis model enables us to discover that, apart from the policy issue, the
first industry and the second industry significantly promote road network expansion, while the
third industry, PM2.5 concentration, and population have a negative correlation. Among the
aforementioned industries, the second industry was the most significant influencing factor for
the road expansion during the research period. The road network expansion is mainly affected by
the second and third industries, PM2.5 concentration, and population density in the metropolitan
region and by first and second industries in the suburban region. This is not only the result of
urbanization but also reflects the planning decision making.

This paper presents a comprehensive insight into the spatiotemporal patterns of road network
distribution and expansion in Nanjing City at a district scale for the first time. Nanjing, one of the
core cities in the Yangtze River Delta city circle in the eastern coastal region of China, has a rapid
development speed and will continue to maintain a superior social and economic development trend in
the near future. The road network is a complex system and performs as the skeleton of the city, which
needs to be carefully studied to maintain sustainable development. This finding has implications for
future transportation planning based on the road network patterns discussed above. In a future study,
we should focus on promoting the usage efficiency of the existing road system and seek development
under the framework of social and environmental benefits.

Author Contributions: G.S. had the original idea, conceived and designed the experiments, analyzed the data,
and wrote the draft paper; J.S. advised the methodology design and result interpretation, and revised all versions
of the paper; P.Y., L.D., and Y.L. did the literature review and prepared the data; N.J. reviewed and gave advice on
the writing process, and provided the funding.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16, 2318 14 of 16

Funding: This research received funding of the Postgraduate Research and Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu
Province (KYCX18_1209); National Natural Science Foundation of China (41601449; 41501431).
Acknowledgments: We acknowledge the data support from the Yangtze River Delta Science Data Center National
Earth System Science Data Sharing Infrastructure at National Science and Technology Infrastructure of China
(http://nnu.geodata.cn). We would also like to acknowledge the support provided by the China Scholarship
Council, enabling Ge Shi (CSC Grant No. 201806860024) to study at Purdue University supervised by Jie Shan.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

References
1. Henderson, V. The urbanization process and economic growth: The so-what question. J. Econ. Growth 2003,
8, 47–71. [CrossRef]
2. Cohen, B. Urbanization in developing countries: Current trends, future projections, and key challenges for
sustainability. Technol. Soc. 2006, 28, 63–80. [CrossRef]
3. Davis, K. The origin and growth of urbanization in the world. Am. J. Sociol. 1955, 60, 429–437. [CrossRef]
4. Deng, J.S.; Wang, K.; Hong, Y.; Qi, J.G. Spatio-temporal dynamics and evolution of land use change and
landscape pattern in response to rapid urbanization. Landsc. Urban Plan. 2009, 92, 187–198. [CrossRef]
5. Todaro, M.P. Urbanization in developing nations: Trends, prospects, and policies. J. Geogr. 1980, 79, 164–174.
[CrossRef]
6. Yang, H.; Bell, M.G.H. Models and algorithms for road network design: A review and some new developments.
Transp. Rev. 1998, 18, 257–278. [CrossRef]
7. Lämmer, S.; Gehlsen, B.; Helbing, D. Scaling laws in the spatial structure of urban road networks. Phys. A
Stat. Mech. Appl. 2006, 363, 89–95. [CrossRef]
8. Amekudzi, A.; Thomas-Mobley, L.; Ross, C. Transportation planning and infrastructure delivery in major
cities and megacities. Transp. Res. Rec. 2007, 1997, 17–23. [CrossRef]
9. Ibisch, P.L.; Hoffmann, M.T.; Kreft, S.; Pe’er, G.; Kati, V.; Biber-Freudenberger, L.; DellaSala, D.A.; Vale, M.M.;
Hobson, P.R.; Selva, N. A global map of roadless areas and their conservation status. Science 2016, 354,
1423–1427. [CrossRef]
10. Cervero, R. Road expansion, urban growth, and induced travel: A path analysis. J. Am. Plan. Assoc. 2003, 69,
145–163. [CrossRef]
11. Zhang, Q.; Wang, J.; Peng, X.; Gong, P.; Shi, P. Urban built-up land change detection with road density
and spectral information from multi-temporal Landsat TM data. Int. J. Remote Sens. 2002, 23, 3057–3078.
[CrossRef]
12. Batisani, N.; Yarnal, B. Urban expansion in Centre County, Pennsylvania: Spatial dynamics and landscape
transformations. Appl. Geogr. 2009, 29, 235–249. [CrossRef]
13. Shi, G.; Jiang, N.; Yao, L. Land Use and Cover Change during the Rapid Economic Growth Period from 1990
to 2010: A Case Study of Shanghai. Sustainability 2018, 10, 426. [CrossRef]
14. Seto, K.C.; Fragkias, M.; Güneralp, B.; Reilly, M.K. A meta-analysis of global urban land expansion. PLoS
ONE 2011, 6, e23777. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
15. Shi, G.; Ye, P.; Ding, L.; Quinones, A.; Li, Y.; Jiang, N. Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Land Use and Cover
Change from 1990 to 2010: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province, China. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019,
16, 907. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
16. Jat, M.K.; Garg, P.K.; Khare, D. Monitoring and modelling of urban sprawl using remote sensing and GIS
techniques. Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinf. 2008, 10, 26–43. [CrossRef]
17. Herold, M.; Goldstein, N.C.; Clarke, K.C. The spatiotemporal form of urban growth: Measurement, analysis
and modeling. Remote Sens. Environ. 2003, 86, 286–302. [CrossRef]
18. Zhou, Y.; Smith, S.J.; Elvidge, C.D.; Zhao, K.; Thomson, A.; Imhoff, M. A cluster-based method to map urban
area from DMSP/OLS nightlights. Remote Sens. Environ. 2014, 147, 173–185. [CrossRef]
19. Shi, G.; Jiang, N.; Li, Y.; He, B. Analysis of the Dynamic Urban Expansion Based on Multi-Sourced Data from
1998 to 2013: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province. Sustainability 2018, 10, 3467. [CrossRef]
20. Xu, C.; Liu, M.; Zhang, C.; An, S.; Yu, W.; Chen, J.M. The spatiotemporal dynamics of rapid urban growth in
the Nanjing metropolitan region of China. Landsc. Ecol. 2007, 22, 925–937. [CrossRef]
21. Allen, P.M.; Sanglier, M. A dynamic model of urban growth: II. J. Soc. Biol. Struct. 1979, 2, 269–278. [CrossRef]
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16, 2318 15 of 16

22. Tian, G.; Liu, J.; Xie, Y.; Yang, Z.; Zhuang, D.; Niu, Z. Analysis of spatio-temporal dynamic pattern and
driving forces of urban land in China in 1990s using TM images and GIS. Cities 2005, 22, 400–410. [CrossRef]
23. Batty, M. Agents, cells, and cities: New representational models for simulating multiscale urban dynamics.
Environ. Plan. A 2005, 37, 1373–1394. [CrossRef]
24. Batty, M. Cellular automata and urban form: A primer. J. Am. Plan. Assoc. 1997, 63, 266–274. [CrossRef]
25. Verburg, P.H.; Overmars, K.P. Combining top-down and bottom-up dynamics in land use modeling:
Exploring the future of abandoned farmlands in Europe with the Dyna-CLUE model. Landsc. Ecol. 2009, 24,
1167. [CrossRef]
26. Zhou, F.; Xu, Y.; Chen, Y.; Xu, C.Y.; Gao, Y.; Du, J. Hydrological response to urbanization at different
spatio-temporal scales simulated by coupling of CLUE-S and the SWAT model in the Yangtze River Delta
region. J. Hydrol. 2013, 485, 113–125. [CrossRef]
27. Batty, M.; Xie, Y.; Sun, Z. Modeling urban dynamics through GIS-based cellular automata. Comput. Environ.
Urban Syst. 1999, 23, 205–233. [CrossRef]
28. Mohring, H. Land values and the measurement of highway benefits. J. Political Econ. 1961, 69, 236–249.
[CrossRef]
29. Coffin, A.W. From roadkill to road ecology: A review of the ecological effects of roads. J. Transp. Geogr. 2007,
15, 396–406. [CrossRef]
30. Garrison, W.L.; Marble, D.F. The Structure of Transportation Networks; No. TR62 11; Northwestern University:
Evanston, IL, USA, 1962.
31. Parthasarathi, P.; Levinson, D.M.; Karamalaputi, R. Induced demand: A microscopic perspective. Urban
Stud. 2003, 40, 1335–1351. [CrossRef]
32. Levinson, D.; Karamalaputi, R. Induced supply: A model of highway network expansion at the microscopic
level. J. Transp. Econ. Policy 2003, 37, 297–318.
33. Strano, E.; Nicosia, V.; Latora, V.; Porta, S.; Barthélemy, M. Elementary processes governing the evolution of
road networks. Sci. Rep. 2012, 2, 296. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
34. Dhanani, A. Suburban built form and street network development in London, 1880–2013: An application of
quantitative historical methods. Hist. Methods J. Quant. Interdiscip. Hist. 2016, 49, 230–243. [CrossRef]
35. Batty, M. Cities as systems of networks and flows. In In the Post-Urban World; Routledge: London, UK, 2017;
pp. 56–69.
36. Sulis, P.; Manley, E.; Zhong, C.; Batty, M. Using mobility data as proxy for measuring urban vitality. J. Spat.
Inf. Sci. 2018, 16, 137–162. [CrossRef]
37. Batty, M. Space Syntax and Spatial Interaction: Comparisons, Integrations, Applications; UCL Work. Papers Series;
CASA: London, UK, 2017.
38. Rui, Y.; Ban, Y. Exploring the relationship between street centrality and land use in Stockholm. Int. J. Geogr.
Inf. Sci. 2014, 28, 1425–1438. [CrossRef]
39. Chu, H.J.; Yang, C.H.; Chou, C.C. Adaptive Non-Negative Geographically Weighted Regression for Population
Density Estimation Based on Nighttime Light. ISPRS Int. J. Geo Inf. 2019, 8, 26. [CrossRef]
40. He, C.; Okada, N.; Zhang, Q.; Shi, P.; Zhang, J. Modeling urban expansion scenarios by coupling cellular
automata model and system dynamic model in Beijing, China. Appl. Geogr. 2006, 26, 323–345. [CrossRef]
41. Tan, M.; Li, X.; Xie, H.; Lu, C. Urban land expansion and arable land loss in China—A case study of
Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. Land Use Policy 2005, 22, 187–196. [CrossRef]
42. Sui, D.Z.; Zeng, H. Modeling the dynamics of landscape structure in Asia’s emerging desakota regions: A
case study in Shenzhen. Landsc. Urban Plan. 2001, 53, 37–52. [CrossRef]
43. Sudhira, H.S.; Ramachandra, T.V.; Jagadish, K.S. Urban sprawl: Metrics, dynamics and modelling using GIS.
Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinf. 2004, 5, 29–39. [CrossRef]
44. Chen, J.; Gao, J.; Yuan, F.; Wei, Y.D. Spatial determinants of urban land expansion in globalizing Nanjing,
China. Sustainability 2016, 8, 868. [CrossRef]
45. Chen, J.; Gao, J.; Yuan, F. Growth Type and Functional Trajectories: An Empirical Study of Urban Expansion
in Nanjing, China. PLoS ONE 2016, 11, e0148389. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
46. Chen, J.; Gao, J.; Chen, W. Urban land expansion and the transitional mechanisms in Nanjing, China. Habitat
Int. 2016, 53, 274–283. [CrossRef]
47. Bureau of Statistics of Jiangsu Province. Jiangsu Yearbook. Available online: http://tj.jiangsu.gov.cn/col/
col4009/index.html (accessed on 2 December 2018).
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16, 2318 16 of 16

48. Yangtze River Delta Science Data Center, National Science and Technology Infrastructure of China. National
Earth System Science Data Sharing Infrastructure. 2015. Available online: http://nnu.www.geodata.cn:8008
(accessed on 10 December 2018).
49. Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the People’s Republic of China. Available online: http://www.mee.
gov.cn/ (accessed on 2 December 2018).
50. Läuter, H.; Silverman, B.W. Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis. Biom. J. 1988, 30, 876–877.
51. Brunsdon, C.; Fotheringham, A.S.; Charlton, M.E. Geographically weighted regression: A method for
exploring spatial nonstationarity. Geogr. Anal. 1996, 28, 281–298. [CrossRef]
52. Huang, B.; Wu, B.; Barry, M. Geographically and temporally weighted regression for modeling spatio-temporal
variation in house prices. Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci. 2010, 24, 383–401. [CrossRef]
53. Páez, A.; Uchida, T.; Miyamoto, K. A general framework for estimation and inference of geographically
weighted regression models: Location-specific kernel bandwidths and a test for locational heterogeneity.
Environ. Plan. A 2002, 34, 733–754. [CrossRef]
54. Bureau of Statistics of Nanjing. Nanjing Yearbook from 1949 to 2018. Available online: http://221.226.86.104/
file/index.htm (accessed on 2 December 2018).
55. Shao, X.; Liu, Q.; Zhang, Y. Advances and expectations of intensive land use researches. Prog. Geogr. 2010,
25, 85–95.
56. Bureau of Palnning and Natural Resource. Comprehensive Planning of Nanjing from 2011 to 2020. Available
online: http://ghj.nanjing.gov.cn/ztzl/ghbz/ztgh/ (accessed on 5 January 2019).
57. Sjoberg, Ö. Shortage, priority and urban growth: Towards a theory of urbanization under central planning.
Urban Stud. 1999, 36, 2217–2236. [CrossRef]
58. Zhang, L.; Lu, Y. Assessment on regional accessibility based on land transportation network: A case study of
the yangtze river delta. Acta Geogr. Sin. 2006, 61, 1235–1246.
59. Wang, F.; Wang, X. China’s regional transport dominance: Density, proximity, and accessibility. J. Geogr. Sci.
2010, 20, 295–309.
60. Gao, Z.; Chen, Z.; Liu, Y.; Kang, H. Study on the complex network characteristics of urban road system based
on GIS. In Geoinformatics 2007: Geospatial Information Technology and Applications; International Society for
Optics and Photonics: Bellingham, WA, USA, 2007; Volume 6754, p. 67540N.

© 2019 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access
article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution
(CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).