CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT

Mathematics Assessment Project

CLASSROOM CHALLENGES
A Formative Assessment Lesson

Representing
Conditional
Probabilities 1

Mathematics Assessment Resource Service

University of Nottingham & UC Berkeley

For more details, visit: http://map.mathshell.org

© 2015 MARS, Shell Center, University of Nottingham
May be reproduced, unmodified, for non-commercial purposes under the Creative Commons license
detailed at http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ - all other rights reserved
 Representing Conditional Probabilities 1

MATHEMATICAL GOALS
This lesson unit is intended to help you assess how well students are able to:
• Understand conditional probability.
• Represent events as a subset of a sample space using tables and tree diagrams.
• Communicate their reasoning clearly.

COMMON CORE STATE STANDARDS

This lesson relates to the following Standards for Mathematical Content in the Common Core State
Standards for Mathematics:
S-CP: Understand independence and conditional probability and use them to interpret data.
This lesson also relates to all the Standards for Mathematical Practice in the Common Core State
Standards for Mathematics, with a particular emphasis on Practices 2, 3, and 7:
1. Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them.
2. Reason abstractly and quantitatively.
3. Construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of others.
4. Model with mathematics.
5. Use appropriate tools strategically.
6. Attend to precision.
7. Look for and make use of structure.
8. Look for and express regularity in repeated reasoning.

INTRODUCTION
This lesson unit is structured in the following way:
• Before the lesson, students work individually on an assessment task that is designed to reveal
their current understanding and difficulties. You then review their work and create questions for
students to answer in order to improve their solutions.
• At the start of the lesson, students work alone answering your questions about the same problem.
Students are then grouped and engage in a collaborative discussion of the same task.
• In the same small groups, students are given sample solutions to analyze and evaluate.
• Finally, in a whole-class discussion, students explain and compare the alternative solution
strategies they have seen and used.
• In a follow-up lesson students review what they have learnt.

MATERIALS REQUIRED
• Each student will need a copy of the Lucky Dip assessment task, the How Did You Work?
questionnaire, a mini-whiteboard, pen, and eraser.
• Each small group of students will need a large sheet of paper for making a poster, a felt-tipped
pen, and enlarged copies of the Sample Responses to Discuss.
• You will need a bag and some black and white balls (or some substitute) for a class
demonstration.
• There is a projector resource to support whole-class discussion.

TIME NEEDED
20 minutes before the lesson, an 80-minute lesson (or two shorter lessons), and 10 minutes in a
follow-up lesson. Exact timings will depend on the needs of the class.
Teacher guide Representing Conditional Probabilities 1 T-1
 BEFORE THE LESSON

Assessment task: Lucky Dip (20 minutes)

Modeling Conditional Probabilities 1: Lucky Dip Student Materials Beta Version February 2012

Have students complete this task, in class or for Lucky Dip

homework, a few days before the formative Dominic has devised a simple game.
Inside a bag he places 3 black and 3 white balls. He then shakes the bag.
assessment lesson. This will give you an
He asks Amy to take two balls from the bag without looking.
opportunity to assess the work and to find out Dominic
!"#$%&#$'(#)*++,#*-&# 674#
the kinds of difficulties students have with it. $%&#,*.&#/(+(-#$%&0# 8%*$#,(205,#"*3-#$(#.&4
1(2#'304
You should then be able to target your help !"#$%&1#*-&#53""&-&0$# Amy
/(+(-,#$%&0#!#'304
more effectively in the next lesson.
Is Amy right? Is the game fair?
Give each student a copy of Lucky Dip. Make If Amy is wrong, then who is most likely to win?

sure the class understands the rules of the game Show all your reasoning clearly.

by demonstrating it using a bag and some black

and white balls.
Read through the questions and try to answer them as carefully as you can.
It is important that students, as far as possible, are allowed to answer the questions without your
assistance.
Students should not worry too much if they cannot understand or do everything, because in the next
lesson they will engage in a similar task, which should help them. Explain to students that by the end
of the next lesson, they should expect to answer questions such as these confidently. This is their
goal.
Students who sit together often produce similar answers and then when they come to compare their
© 2012 MARS University of Nottingham S-1
work, they have little to discuss. For this reason, we suggest that when students do the task
individually, you ask them to move to different seats. Then at the beginning of the formative
assessment lesson, allow them to return to their usual seats. Experience has shown that this produces
more profitable discussions.

Assessing students’ responses

Collect students’ responses to the task. Make some notes on what their work reveals about their
current levels of understanding and their different problem solving approaches.
We suggest that you do not score students’ work. The research shows that this will be
counterproductive, as it will encourage students to compare their scores and will distract their
attention from what they can do to improve their mathematics.
Instead, help students to make further progress by summarizing their difficulties as a series of
questions. Some suggestions for these are given in the Common issues table on the next page. These
have been drawn from common difficulties observed in trials of this unit. We suggest you make a list
of questions, based on your students’ work. We recommend you either:
• write one or two questions on each student’s work, or
• give each student a printed version of your list of questions and highlight the questions for each
individual student.
If you do not have time to do this, you could select a few questions that will be of help to the majority
of students and write these questions on the board when you return the work at the beginning of the
lesson.

Teacher guide Representing Conditional Probabilities 1 T-2

 Common issues Suggested questions and prompts

Has difficulty getting started • Play the game twenty times, using pieces of
marked paper instead of balls. Do you think
the game is fair? Explain your answer.

Assumes that the game is fair • Suppose you labeled each ball with a different
letter. What are the different combinations you
For example: The student assumes that there are
only two outcomes (the balls are the same color or can take out of the bag?
the balls are different colors), so the probabilities
are equal.
Uses unsuitable representations • Can you think of a suitable diagram that will
show all the possible outcomes?
For example: The student does not use a tree
diagram or a sample space diagram. • Can you use a sample space diagram?

Confusion concerning the nature of the ‘event’ • Does it make a difference whether Amy picks
the balls one at a time, rather than at the same
For example: The student is concerned over
whether it makes a difference to consider taking time? Explain your answer.
both balls out at once or taking them out one at a • How can you show the different possible
time. outcomes using a diagram?

Dependent probabilities are not recognized • Imagine picking a black ball from the bag.
What is the probability of picking a black ball?
For example: The student appears to assume that
each ball is returned to the bag after it is selected. Now you are holding the black ball, what is
the probability of picking another black ball?
Or: The probability that the second ball is black is
assumed to be independent of the choice of the
first ball. So P(both balls black) is assumed to be
0.5 × 0.5.
The same ball is selected twice in the table of • Is it possible to select the same ball twice?
possible outcomes
For example: The student assumes that there are
3 × 3 = 9 ways of obtaining two black balls.
Work is incomplete or unclear • Would someone unfamiliar with this type of
task understand all your work?
For example: The student does not fully label the
tree diagram or the sample space diagram.
All questions are answered correctly • How many black balls and how many white
balls could you put in the bag to make the
The student needs an extension task.
game fair? Explain your answer.

Teacher guide Representing Conditional Probabilities 1 T-3

 SUGGESTED LESSON OUTLINE

Individual work (10 minutes)

Begin the lesson by briefly reintroducing the problem.
Recall what we were looking at in a previous lesson. What was the task about?
Return the assessment task to the students. Give each student a mini-whiteboard, pen, and eraser.
If you did not add questions to individual pieces of work, write your list of questions on the board or
give out your printed list. Students are to select questions appropriate to their own work and spend a
few minutes answering them.
Today we are going to work together to try to improve your initial attempts at this task.
I have looked at your work and I have some questions I would like you to think about.
On your own, carefully read through the questions I have written. Use the questions to help you
to think about ways of improving your own work.
Use your mini-whiteboards to make a note of anything you think will help to improve your work.
Slide P-1 of the projector resource outlines the rules of the game. To remind students of the rules, you
could demonstrate the game using a bag and some balls.

Lucky Dip
Dominic has devised a simple game.

Inside a bag he places 3 black and 3 white balls.

He then shakes the bag.

He asks Amy to take two balls from the bag without looking.

Is Amy right? Is the game fair?

If Amy is wrong, then who is most likely to win?
Show all your reasoning clearly.
Projector resources Representing Conditional Probabilities 1
P-1

Collaborative small-group work (20 minutes)

Organize the class into small groups of two or three students. Give each group a large piece of paper
and a felt-tipped pen.
Deciding on a Strategy
Ask students to share their ideas about the task and plan a joint solution.
I want you to share your work with your group.
Take turns to explain how you did the task and how you now think it could be improved.
Listen carefully to any explanation. Ask questions if you don’t understand or agree with the
method. (You may want to use some of the questions I have written on the board.)
I want you to plan a joint approach that is better than your separate solutions.
Once students have evaluated the relative merits of each approach, ask them to write their strategy on
the second side of the poster.
Slide P-2 of the projector resource, Planning a Joint Solution, summarizes these instructions:
Teacher guide Representing Conditional Probabilities 1 T-4
 Planning a Joint Solution
1. Take turns to explain how you did the task and how you now think it could
be improved.

2. Listen carefully to explanations.

– Ask questions if you don’t understand.

– Discuss with your partner(s):

• What you like/dislike about your partner’s math.
• Any assumptions your partner has made.
• How their work could be improved.

3. Once everyone in the group has explained their solution, plan a joint
approach that is better than each of the separate solutions.
– On the second side of your poster or paper write a couple of
sentences outlining your plan.

Implementing the Strategy Projector resources Representing Conditional Probabilities 1 P-2

Students are now to write their joint solution on the front side of the poster.
While students work in small groups you have two tasks: to note different student approaches to the
task and to support student problem solving.
Note different student approaches to the task
For example, do students identify all the different possible events clearly? Are students using
diagrams to support their answers? In particular, note any common mistakes. You can then use this
information to focus a whole-class discussion at the end of the lesson.
Support student problem solving
Try not to make suggestions that move students towards a particular approach to the task. Instead, ask
questions that help students to clarify their thinking. In particular focus on the strategies rather than
the solution. Encourage students to justify their ideas.
Look for any groups of students who agree amongst themselves on an incorrect answer or
justification. You could ask these students to work with another group, to compare solutions and
prompt revision.
You may want to use the questions in the Common issues table to support your own questioning. If
the whole-class is struggling on the same issue, you could write one or two relevant questions on the
board and hold a brief whole-class discussion. You could also give any struggling students one of the
Sample Responses to Discuss.

Whole-class discussion (15 minutes)

You may want to hold a brief whole-class discussion. Have students solved the problem using a
variety of methods? Or have you noticed some interesting ways of working or some incorrect
methods, if so, you may want to focus the discussion on these. Equally, if you have noticed different
groups using similar strategies but making different assumptions you may want to compare solutions.
Extending the lesson over two days
If you are taking two days to complete the lesson unit then you may want to end the first lesson here.
At the start of the second day, allow students time to familiarize themselves with their joint solution
before moving on to the collaborative analysis of sample responses.

Collaborative analysis of Sample Responses to Discuss (20 minutes)

After students have had enough time to attempt the problem, give each group copies of the three
Sample Responses to Discuss and ask for written comments. This task gives students the opportunity
to evaluate a variety of approaches to the task.
Teacher guide Representing Conditional Probabilities 1 T-5
 You are now going to look at three solutions to the task.
Imagine you are the teacher. Write down your comments on each piece of work.
Try to explain what the student has done.
What mistakes have been made?
What isn’t clear about the work?
Slide P-3 of the projector resource describes how students should work together:

Evaluating Sample Responses to Discuss

1. Imagine you are the teacher and have to assess the student
work.

2. Take turns to work through a students’ solution.

- Write your answers on your mini-whiteboards.

3. Explain your answer to the rest of the group.

4. Listen carefully to explanations.

– Ask questions if you don't understand.

5. Once everyone is satisfied with the explanations, write the

answers below the students’ solution.
- Make sure the student who writes the answers is not the
student who explained them.
Projector resources Representing Conditional Probabilities 1 P-3

During the paired work, support the students as in the first collaborative activity. Note similarities and
differences between the approaches seen in the sample responses and those students took in the small-
group work. Also, check to see which methods students have difficulties in understanding. This
information can help you focus the next activity, a whole-class discussion.

Whole-class discussion: comparing different approaches (15 minutes)

Hold a whole-class discussion to consider the different approaches used in the sample work. Focus
the discussion on parts of the task students found difficult. Ask the students to compare the different
solution methods:
Which approach did you like best? Why?
Which approach did you find most difficult to understand? Why?
To support the discussion, you may want to use Slides P-4 to P-6 of the projector resource to display
the sample work.

Anna’s work appears intuitively correct.

She assumes that there are only two outcomes
(that the two balls are the same color or that they
are different colors), so that the probabilities are
equal.
Anna does not take into account the changes in
probabilities once a ball is removed from the bag
and not replaced.

Teacher guide Representing Conditional Probabilities 1 T-6

 Ella draws a sample space in the form of an
organized table.
Ella clearly presents her work, however she makes
the mistake of including the diagonals. This means
the same ball is selected twice. This is not
possible, as the balls are not replaced.

Jordan uses a tree diagram to show the possible

outcomes when taking two balls from the bag.
Jordan’s work is difficult to follow. He does not
label the branches of the tree.
Jordan does not take into account that the first ball
is not replaced. When selecting the second ball
there are only 5 balls in the bag, so these
probability fractions should all have a denominator
of 5.
Where does the denominator of 6 come from?
What is the sum of all final probabilities?
What does this tell you about Jordan’s work?
[He has made a mistake.]

Follow-up lesson: review solutions to Lucky Dip (10 minutes)

Give out the How Did You Work? sheet and ask students to complete this questionnaire.
The questionnaire should help students review their progress.
If you have time, you may also want to ask your students to read through their original solution and
using what they have learned, attempt the task again. In this case, give each student a fresh blank
copy of the Lucky Dip assessment.
Some teachers give this as a homework task.

Teacher guide Representing Conditional Probabilities 1 T-7

 SOLUTIONS

Assessment task: Lucky Dip

Amy is wrong: the game is not fair. In the sample space diagram below, the black balls are labeled B1,
B2, B3 and the white balls are labeled W1, W2, W3. Each cell shows one possible, equally likely
outcome. The diagonal doesn’t show possible outcomes because the same ball cannot be taken out
twice.
Amy wins wherever there is a ✓. Dominic wins wherever there is a x. This shows that the probability
12 2 18 3
of Amy winning is = and the probability of Dominic winning is = . An alternative
30 5 30 5
representation is the tree diagram.
P(BB) =
2 1 2 1
€ € B × =
5 2 5 5
First selection

B1 B2 B3 W1 W2 W3 1
B P(BW) =
2
Second B1 - ✓ ✓ x x x W
3 1 3 3
× =
5 2 5 10
selection
B2 ✓ - ✓ x x x
B3 ✓ ✓ - x x x
P(WB) =
1 3 3
W1 x x x - ✓ ✓ B
3 × =
2 5 10
5
1
W
W2 x x x ✓ - ✓ 2

W3 x x x ✓ ✓ - P(WW) =
2 1 2 1
W 5 × =
2 5 5

Some students think of the event being modeled as picking two balls simultaneously. In that case,
the sample space diagram (with labels first selection, second selection) and the probability tree (which
again shows a sequence of events) may seem less appropriate. The student may therefore decide to
not distinguish between B1B2 and B2B1. The resulting sample space diagram will be just the upper
(or lower) half of the sample space diagram shown above. The resulting probabilities however will
remain unaffected.

Teacher guide Representing Conditional Probabilities 1 T-8

 Lucky Dip
Dominic has devised a simple game.
Inside a bag he places 3 black and 3 white balls. He then shakes the bag.

He asks Amy to take two balls from the bag without looking.

Dominic
If the two balls are OK.
the same color then That sounds fair to me.
you win.
If they are different Amy
colors then I win.

Is Amy right? Is the game fair?

If Amy is wrong, then who is most likely to win?
Show all your reasoning clearly.

Student materials Representing Conditional Probabilities 1 S-1

© 2015 MARS, Shell Center, University of Nottingham
 Sample Responses to Discuss: Anna

Explain what the student has done.

What isn’t clear about her work?

What mistakes has she made?

Student materials Representing Conditional Probabilities 1 S-2

© 2015 MARS, Shell Center, University of Nottingham
 Sample Responses to Discuss: Ella

Explain what the student has done.

What isn't clear about her work?

What mistakes has she made?

Student materials Representing Conditional Probabilities 1 S-3

© 2015 MARS, Shell Center, University of Nottingham
 Sample Responses to Discuss: Jordan

Explain what the student has done.

What isn’t clear about his work?

What mistakes has he made?

Student materials Representing Conditional Probabilities 1 S-4

© 2015 MARS, Shell Center, University of Nottingham
 How Did You Work?
1. Compare the sample responses and your group response. What are the advantages and disadvantages of each approach?

Advantages Disadvantages

Amy

Ella

Jordan

Our group
work

2. Now that you have seen Amy’s, Ella’s and Jordan’s work, what would you do if you started the task again?

3. What do you think are the difficulties someone new to the task will face?

Student materials Representing Conditional Probabilities 1 S-5

© 2015 MARS, Shell Center, University of Nottingham
 Lucky Dip
Dominic has devised a simple game.

Inside a bag he places 3 black and 3 white balls.

He then shakes the bag.

He asks Amy to take two balls from the bag without looking.

Is Amy right? Is the game fair?

If Amy is wrong, then who is most likely to win?
Show all your reasoning clearly.
Projector resources Representing Conditional Probabilities 1
P-1
 Planning a Joint Solution
1. Take turns to explain how you did the task and how you now think it could
be improved.

2. Listen carefully to explanations.

– Ask questions if you don’t understand.

– Discuss with your partner(s):

• What you like/dislike about your partner’s math.
• Any assumptions your partner has made.
• How their work could be improved.

3. Once everyone in the group has explained their solution, plan a joint
approach that is better than each of the separate solutions.
– On the second side of your poster or paper write a couple of
sentences outlining your plan.

Projector resources Representing Conditional Probabilities 1 P-2

 Evaluating Sample Responses to Discuss
1. Imagine you are the teacher and have to assess the student
work.

2. Take turns to work through a students’ solution.

- Write your answers on your mini-whiteboards.

3. Explain your answer to the rest of the group.

4. Listen carefully to explanations.

– Ask questions if you don't understand.

5. Once everyone is satisfied with the explanations, write the

answers below the students’ solution.
- Make sure the student who writes the answers is not the
student who explained them.
Projector resources Representing Conditional Probabilities 1 P-3
 Sample Responses to Discuss: Anna

Projector resources Representing Conditional Probabilities 1 P-4

 Sample Responses to Discuss: Ella

Projector resources Representing Conditional Probabilities 1 P-5

 Sample Responses to Discuss: Jordan

Projector resources Representing Conditional Probabilities 1 P-6

 Mathematics Assessment Project

Classroom Challenges
These materials were designed and developed by the
Shell Center Team at the Center for Research in Mathematical Education
University of Nottingham, England:
Malcolm Swan,
Nichola Clarke, Clare Dawson, Sheila Evans, Colin Foster, and Marie Joubert
with
Hugh Burkhardt, Rita Crust, Andy Noyes, and Daniel Pead

We are grateful to the many teachers and students, in the UK and the US,
who took part in the classroom trials that played a critical role in developing these materials
The classroom observation teams in the US were led by
David Foster, Mary Bouck, and Diane Schaefer

This project was conceived and directed for

The Mathematics Assessment Resource Service (MARS) by
Alan Schoenfeld at the University of California, Berkeley, and
Hugh Burkhardt, Daniel Pead, and Malcolm Swan at the University of Nottingham

Thanks also to Mat Crosier, Anne Floyde, Michael Galan, Judith Mills, Nick Orchard, and Alvaro
Villanueva who contributed to the design and production of these materials

This development would not have been possible without the support of
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
We are particularly grateful to
Carina Wong, Melissa Chabran, and Jamie McKee

The full collection of Mathematics Assessment Project materials is available from

http://map.mathshell.org

© 2015 MARS, Shell Center, University of Nottingham

This material may be reproduced and distributed, without modification, for non-commercial purposes,
under the Creative Commons License detailed at http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/
All other rights reserved.
Please contact map.info@mathshell.org if this license does not meet your needs.