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435
CP12CH17-Lilienfeld ARI 24 February 2016 11:57
Contents
INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 436
DSM-ICD and Kraepelin: Hints of a Paradigm Shift . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 437
DSM AND ICD: ORIGINS AND ASSUMPTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 437
DSM-ICD Successes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 438
DSM-ICD Anomalies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 439
DSM-ICD Anomalies: Taking Stock . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 441
RDOC: INTELLECTUAL ANTECEDENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 442
Laboratory Methods in Medicine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 442
Early Triumphs in Psychopathology Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 442
Biological Markers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 443
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INTRODUCTION
I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.
—Sir Isaac Newton
In a classic article, Lewin (1935) contrasted two approaches to apprehending the state of nature.
The Aristotelian view conceptualizes different entities in the world as underpinned by qualitatively
different essences. Rocks and feathers fall at different rates, Aristotle supposed, because they are
composed of fundamentally different “stuff.” In contrast, the Galilean view regards diverse entities
as underpinned by similar underlying causal forces. For Lewin, the slow but steady march of
science has been characterized by a transition from Aristotelian to Galilean modes of thinking. As
our knowledge of the world has grown, we have come to recognize that similar causal variables
underpin the actions of seemingly disparate phenomena.
The approach enshrined in recent editions of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental
Disorders (DSM) and the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems
(ICD), which we heretofore dub the DSM-ICD model, adopts—at least implicitly—an Aristotelian
model of categorization (Carson 1996). In this approach, which has been dominant in American
psychiatry over at least the past half century, disorders are presumed to constitute largely discrete
entities: They are commonly assumed to differ qualitatively from normality and from each other.
For example, the influential framework for the validation of mental disorders advanced by Robins &
Guze (1970) delineated five criteria for ascertaining whether a diagnostic entity is genuine. Among
them was the “delimitation [of the disorder] from other disorders” (p. 108), the assumption being
that a diagnosis that overlaps extensively with others is of doubtful validity.
tially believed that superficially similar mental disorders, such as dementia praecox (now termed
schizophrenia) and manic depression (now termed bipolar disorder), could be differentiated by
a detailed documentation of their (a) signs (observable manifestations), (b) symptoms (subjective
reports), and (c) natural history (trajectory over time). Kraepelin, following in the footsteps of Lin-
nean botanists (Compton & Guze 1995), regarded different mental disorders as akin to differing
species or subspecies that could be distinguished largely by their topography.
A key assumption of the neo-Kraepelinian approach is that signs and symptoms are often
sufficient to differentiate mental disorders. Nevertheless, the history of medicine reminds us that
this assumption may be unwarranted. For example, in the early twentieth century, physicians
diagnosed dozens of different fevers—ranging alphabetically from blackwater fever to yellow
fever—and distinguished them on the basis of other co-occurring signs and symptoms (Kihlstrom
2002). Today, physicians recognize that fever is a nonspecific indicator of a plethora of pathologies
rather than a disorder per se, and they attempt to identify the etiology of the fever prior to initiating
treatment.
Despite the enormous impact of the DSM on everyday research and practice, there are growing
indications that its hegemony may at last be beginning to wane. Over the past several years,
rumblings of what some have described as a paradigm shift (Fu & Costafreda 2013) or reboot
(Kendler 2014) in psychiatric classification have become increasingly audible. Ironically, many
scholars appear to have neglected the fact that, late in his career, Kraepelin (1920) expressed
doubts regarding his now familiar distinction between dementia praecox and manic depression
on the grounds that the overlap between these two conditions was too substantial: “We cannot
satisfactorily distinguish between these two diseases. The suspicion remains that we are asking the
wrong questions” (p. 527, italics added; see also Greene 2007).
Among the first responders to the call to ask the right questions, or at least better ones, has
been the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) and its Research Domain Criteria initiative
(RDoC; Insel et al. 2010). Though more of a promissory note than a formalized system at present,
RDoC aims to develop a system of psychiatric classification based not on signs, symptoms, and
course, à la Kraepelin, but instead on markers of psychobiological systems linked to adaptive—and
maladaptive—functioning.
often vague diagnostic descriptions and the low, or at best modest, interrater reliabilities of their
diagnostic categories, the American Psychiatric Association, with Robert Spitzer at the helm,
released the third edition of DSM in 1980 (DSM-III; Am. Psychiatr. Assoc. 1980). DSM-III was
influenced heavily by the seminal work of the psychiatric group at Washington University in St.
Louis, which had introduced preliminary diagnostic criteria and algorithms (decision rules) for 14
major mental disorders in the early 1970s (Feighner et al. 1972). The more immediate precursor
of DSM-III was the Research Diagnostic Criteria (RDC; Spitzer et al. 1978), which delineated
criteria and algorithms for approximately 20 major diagnostic categories, along with subtypes
within several of these categories.
Like the Feighner and RDC criteria, DSM-III was considerably more neo-Kraepelinian than
its DSM predecessors (Compton & Guze 1995), as it emphasized the differentiation of conditions
on the basis on their signs, symptoms, and natural history. In accord with its neo-Kraepelinian
emphasis, DSM-III provided users with (a) standardized diagnostic criteria and (b) algorithms for
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each diagnosis. Rather than merely describing each diagnosis, as DSM-I (Am. Psychiatr. Assoc.
1952) and DSM-II (Am. Psychiatr. Assoc. 1968) had done, DSM-III delineated the specific signs
and symptoms comprising each diagnosis and the method by which they needed to be combined
to establish it. In this way, it almost certainly boosted the interrater reliability of most diagnostic
categories, although some critics have maintained that these increases were modest at best (Kirk &
Kutchins 1992). Although DSM-III-R (Am. Psychiatr. Assoc. 1987) and DSM-IV (Am. Psychiatr.
Assoc. 1994) introduced changes to many diagnoses, they retained DSM-III’s basic structure and
format.
In an effort to accommodate novel evidence that had emerged in the wake of the second
millennium, DSM-5 (Am. Psychiatr. Assoc. 2013), spearheaded by David Kupfer and Darrel
Regier, was published in May of 2013 amid a host of searing criticisms, many of which centered
on alterations to a number of diagnostic categories in the absence of adequate data (see Frances
& Widiger 2012). Although the early phases of planning for DSM-5 were rife with speculations
regarding drastic changes in its content and structure, such as a heightened focus on neuroscientific
markers or the inclusion of a dimensional system for personality disorders (Skodol et al. 2011),
DSM-5 by and large retained the principal format of DSM-IV as well as most of its major diagnoses.
Although DSM-5 is the predominant system of psychiatric classification around the world, chapter
V of the tenth revision of ICD (ICD-10) of the World Health Organization (1992) (which is similar
to the DSM in most important respects) is a neo-Kraepelinian alternative to DSM-5 that has been
adopted in numerous countries outside of the United States. ICD-11 is under construction as of
this writing.
The hue and cry regarding the most controversial changes in DSM-5, such as the deletion of the
bereavement criterion for major depressive disorder (MDD) or the jettisoning of hypochondriasis
as a diagnosis (Frances 2013), may have obscured a deeper point. With the potential exception
of (a) the inclusion of dimensional scales to capture the functioning and impairment associated
with major mental disorders and (b) the inclusion of a hybrid prototype-dimensional model for
personality disorders, both of which appeared in section III (“Emerging Measures and Models”),
DSM-5 was every bit as neo-Kraepelinian as its predecessors.
DSM-ICD Successes
Extreme skeptics of the DSM-ICD system (e.g., Greenberg 2013) have at times argued that this
approach has yielded categories with negligible validity. Similarly, in a widely publicized blog post
announcing the shift of the NIMH toward RDoC, NIMH Director Thomas Insel (2013) wrote
that the DSM’s “major weakness is its lack of validity.”
The assertion that DSM categories lack validity paints with too broad a brush. Many DSM
categories, such as major depression, panic disorder, bipolar disorder, and schizophrenia, display
at least some construct validity, as demonstrated by consistent relations with laboratory indicators,
biological correlates, natural history, and family history. For example, although the DSM diagnosis
of schizophrenia almost surely encompasses a heterogeneous mélange of overlapping conditions,
this diagnosis is associated with certain external correlates, such as smooth pursuit eye movement
dysfunction, ventricular enlargement, a chronic and frequently relapsing course, and a family
history of schizophrenia among biological relatives (e.g., Tsuang et al. 2000).
Moreover, the development of lists of empirically supported therapies—psychological treat-
ments that have been demonstrated to be efficacious for specific disorders (e.g., cognitive-
behavioral therapy for major depression, panic control treatment for panic disorder; Chambless
& Ollendick 2001)—is a testament to the treatment validity (Hayes et al. 1987) of at least some
DSM-ICD categories. If the DSM and ICD were entirely devoid of validity, one could not identify
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psychological interventions that are differentially efficacious for different conditions (Garb et al.
2009; but see Inadequate Treatment Validity section). Moreover, by providing researchers and
clinicians with a lingua franca for facilitating diagnostic communication, the DSM has accelerated
scientific progress regarding the correlates, etiology, and treatment of mental disorders (see also
Kendell 1975).
DSM-ICD Anomalies
At the same time, it has become evident that the DSM-ICD approach has been beset by a growing
number of anomalies (Lilienfeld 2014b), many of which have not been adequately resolved across
DSM editions. We touch on the most noteworthy anomalies here.
Scientifically arbitrary diagnostic cut-offs. The DSM is technically agnostic with regard to
whether its conditions are categorical (taxonic) or dimensional in nature. Still, the DSM adopts
a categorical approach as a working model for measurement purposes. This model is debatable
for two major reasons. First, taxometric studies, which allow investigators to ascertain whether
an observed distribution can be decomposed into two or more independent distributions (Meehl
& Golden 1982), indicate that most DSM conditions, including the lion’s share of mood, anx-
iety, eating, personality, and externalizing disorders, appear to be underpinned by one or more
dimensions. The potential exceptions are schizophrenia spectrum disorders, autism spectrum dis-
orders, and some substance use disorders (Haslam et al. 2012). The absence of a point of rarity
(Sneath 1957) demarcating most DSM conditions from normality raises questions regarding the
Aristotelian assumption of discrete conditions. Second, even if some DSM conditions are taxonic,
this would not justify the imposition of a categorical measurement model. Such a model decreases
reliability and validity relative to a dimensional model because it forfeits valuable psychometric
information (Markon et al. 2011). Even for taxonic variables, dimensional measures almost always
provide more sensitive indicators than do categorical measures, as they offer information regarding
individuals’ proximity to the natural cut point.
Heterogeneity. The polythetic model of DSM-III-R and later DSM editions, sometimes derided
as the “Chinese menu” approach, provides criteria that are neither singly necessary nor jointly
sufficient for a diagnosis. This model has generated marked phenotypic heterogeneity. As a partic-
ularly extreme example, in DSM-5 there are 636,120 ways to meet criteria for posttraumatic stress
disorder (Galatzer-Levy & Bryant 2013). Although phenotypic heterogeneity does not necessarily
imply etiological heterogeneity, it seems unlikely that two conditions that overlap minimally in
their expression would stem from similar, let alone identical, causal influences. In addition, such
heterogeneity renders the search for etiological agents more challenging (for a discussion of this
issue with respect to MDD, see Monroe & Anderson 2015).
Comorbidity. An ideal taxonomy yields categories that are largely mutually exclusive (Frances
1980). Yet across its multiple editions, the DSM has been bedeviled by the vexing problem of
comorbidity, a term coined by Feinstein (1970) to denote the co-occurrence of two or more
putatively distinct conditions. For example, in the Australian National Survey of Mental Health
and Well-Being, 21% of participants with one DSM-IV disorder met criteria for three or more
DSM-IV disorders (Andrews et al. 2002); comparable data derive from the United States National
Comorbidity Study (Kessler et al. 1994). In one especially extreme case, a participant in a research
study simultaneously met criteria for all 10 DSM-IV (and DSM-5) personality disorders (Lilienfeld
et al. 2014)!
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In the eyes of many authors, the presence of rampant comorbidity is a red flag that the DSM
is not drawing the correct diagnostic borders. Other authors (e.g., Maj 2005) go further, sug-
gesting that such comorbidity reflects the propensity of the DSM to attach different names to
slightly different manifestations of a shared predisposition, an error known as the jangle fallacy
(Block 1995). For example, most personality disorders appear to be complex constellations or
configurations of normal-range personality dimensions (e.g., antagonism, low conscientiousness,
introversion; Widiger & Trull 2007). Hence, it is hardly surprising that many of these conditions,
such as narcissistic and borderline personality disorders, display substantial covariation.
Large number of intermediate cases. An optimal classification system also consists of categories
that yield few intermediate cases (Frances 1980). Yet for most major classes of psychopathology,
one of the most frequent diagnoses is NOS (not otherwise specified), meaning that most patients
with mental disorders do not fit into any extant category (Stein et al. 2000, Westen 2012). Such
patients must be diagnosed by means of a “wastebasket category” that encompasses individuals
who are clearly disordered but whose signs and symptoms do not meet criteria for any extant
diagnosis. For eating disorders, NOS has typically been the modal diagnosis in routine clinical
settings (Fairburn & Bohn 2005); in unstructured interview studies of personality disorders, NOS
is similarly the most frequent diagnosis (Verheul & Widiger 2004).
The high prevalence of NOS diagnoses probably derives from what Hyman (2010) termed
the “problem of overspecification” (p. 166). For diagnoses, the DSM and ICD prescribe strict
criteria and algorithms that almost certainly exclude many individuals who suffer from the same
dysfunction as do most individuals within the category, but who fall barely short of the diagnostic
threshold. For example, an individual in a study who met all criteria for DSM-5 MDD but whose
episode lasted only 12 days (rather than the required two weeks) would be precluded from receiving
a formal diagnosis of MDD. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that this person differs fundamentally from
most people with MDD.
Inadequate treatment validity. As also noted previously, the presence of lists of empirically
supported therapies suggests that at least some DSM categories possess treatment validity and
clinical utility (Garb et al. 2009). Nevertheless, the linkage between diagnosis and treatment is
not nearly as tight in psychiatry as in other domains of medicine. Increasing data suggest that
although at least some treatment specificity exists (Lilienfeld 2014a), common factors—those that
cut across most or all efficacious treatments—account for hefty chunks of variance in therapeutic
outcomes (Laska et al. 2014). More broadly, the DSM era has not borne witness to large-scale
reductions in the morbidity or mortality associated with major mental disorders, nor to decreases
in suicide rates. These sobering facts stand in stark contrast to sharp declines in the death rates
associated with heart disease, stroke, cancer, and many other medical disorders (Insel 2009). It
would be unfair to attribute all of the lack of progress in diminishing psychiatric morbidity and
mortality to our contemporary system of classification. Nevertheless, this state of affairs raises the
distinct possibility that fresh approaches to classification will be needed to achieve intervention
breakthroughs.
Ninety years have now elapsed since Kraepelin first provided the framework of a plausible classifi-
cation of mental disorders. Why then, with so many potential validators available, have we made so
little progress since that time? . . . One important possibility is that the discrete clusters of psychiatric
symptoms we are trying to delineate do not actually exist. (Kendell 1989, p. 313)
Ironically, a similar alarm call was sounded 13 years later by the two principal architects of DSM-
5: “Research exclusively focused on refining DSM-defined syndromes may never be successful in
uncovering their underlying etiologies. For that to happen, an as yet unknown paradigm shift may
need to occur” (Kupfer et al. 2002, p. xix). RDoC may be heralding the leading edge of this very
paradigm shift.
ing as mental disorders (Schildkrout 2014). At the same time, many of the enduring failures of
this approach to traditional mental disorders, such as schizophrenia, imparted valuable sobering
lessons that were to inform RDoC.
and niacin, respectively). Coming as they did against the backdrop of the discovery of Mendelian
genetics and the germ theory of disease, they encouraged several generations of psychopathology
researchers to believe that other major mental disorders, such as schizophrenia, bipolar disor-
der, and obsessive-compulsive disorder, would similarly be traceable to a single etiological agent
(Kendler & Schaffner 2011). In many respects, however, these successes were misleading. In
the case of schizophrenia, dozens if not hundreds of candidates for the “schizochete” (Neimark
2009)—a presumably unique biological cause of the disorder, such as dopamine hyperactivity, a
dominant gene, or hypofrontality—were proposed over the years. Yet this “single bullet” approach
ultimately failed, almost surely because the causes of these disorders are exceedingly multifactorial
(Kendler 2005). This approach also foundered because these causes are not unique to schizophre-
nia but rather are shared across numerous DSM-ICD disorders. This belated realization was
almost certainly one of many catalysts for the transdiagnostic approach embraced by RDoC.
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Biological Markers
The appreciation of multifactorial causality notwithstanding, the 1970s and 1980s saw keen inter-
est in the identification of biological markers for psychopathology (Iacono 1985). Sophisticated
thinkers viewed these markers not as akin to the spirochete that causes general paresis but rather
as fallible but nonetheless useful indicators that could assist in etiological and perhaps diagnostic
efforts. For example, the early 1980s bore witness to the development of the dexamethasone sup-
pression test (DST), an indicator of cortisol reactivity, to assist in the diagnosis of endogenous
depression (Carroll 1982); the discovery of reduced rapid eye movement latency as an indicator
of major depression (Kupfer et al. 1978); and the development of measures of smooth pursuit eye
movement dysfunction (Iacono et al. 1981) as an indicator of schizophrenia.
Nevertheless, the much-vaunted search for biological markers, which continues apace today,
has met with, at best, qualified success. Although some of these putative markers offered fruitful
leads to etiology, no marker displayed sufficiently high levels of both sensitivity and specificity
(as well as positive and negative predictive power) to qualify as proxies for research diagnoses,
let alone as screening or laboratory tests for routine clinical use (Insel 2014, Kapur et al. 2012). For
example, although the DST displayed reasonably high sensitivity for endogenous depression, its
specificity was often poor, reflecting high levels of false positive identifications among patients with
schizophrenia, alcoholism, anxiety disorders, and dementia (Coppen et al. 1983). As a consequence,
a state of disenchantment regarding the DST and other biological markers gradually set in. As of
today, the lone laboratory-based biological tests in the DSM are for a subset of sleep disorders,
such as assay-based measures of hypocretin levels for narcolepsy (Am. Psychiatr. Assoc. 2013), and
even these tests are hardly infallible.
Nevertheless, it has long been unclear whether the failure to detect highly sensitive and specific
markers of mental disorders reflected on the failure of the biological strategy per se rather than
on the gross imprecision of diagnostic phenotypes themselves. As the twentieth century drew to
a close, researchers were increasingly placing their bets on the latter.
& Alamo 2009). The next two to three decades were awash in the development of scores of variants
(knockoffs) of these medications.
Yet for reasons that are still poorly understood, progress in psychopharmacology began to slow
to a crawl. Although the advent of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors in the 1980s and atypical
antipsychotic medications in the 1990s substantially ameliorated the problematic side effect profiles
of major classes of psychiatric drugs, little evidence indicates that these new classes of medications
contributed to marked enhancements in therapeutic efficacy (Anderson 2000, Chakos et al. 2014).
As another example, recent enthusiasm concerning the potential of glutamate antagonists for
schizophrenia gave way to disillusionment in the wake of several failed clinical trials (Zink & Correll
2015). In 2011, two premier drug companies, AstraZeneca and GlaxoSmithKline, announced that
they were terminating their search for new psychiatric medications in light of the bleak outlook for
major discoveries (Cowen 2011), and other firms may soon be following suit. Although some of the
lack of progress may stem from failures of innovation and risk taking in the psychopharmacology
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industry, much of it may also derive from the fact that the disorder phenotypes afforded by DSM-
ICD are too crude and heterogeneous to afford effective medication targets.
Precision Medicine
A final intellectual crosscurrent that informed RDoC was the emergence of precision medicine,
sometimes also called personalized medicine, a new branch of medicine that strives to harness
the power of clinical-pathological laboratory measures, such as genetic tests, to tailor treatments
to individuals (Mirnezami et al. 2012). For example, researchers have developed a targeted drug
treatment for a small subset (4%) of patients with cystic fibrosis who possess a specific mutation
(Insel 2014). Similarly, the treatment of breast cancer has been revolutionized by the development
of oncotype testing, permitting physicians to move from a one-size-fits-all intervention approach
to treatment geared to specific genetic profiles (Aftimos et al. 2014). The coming era of precision
medicine has stirred hopes for a similar revolution in psychiatry and clinical psychology.
diagnosis on presenting signs and symptoms, as do DSM and ICD, RDoC strives to anchor psy-
chiatric classification and diagnosis in a scientifically supported model of neural circuitry. RDoC
conceptualizes mental disorders as dysfunctions in brain systems that bear important adaptive im-
plications, such as systems linked to reward responsiveness and threat sensitivity (see also Harkness
et al. 2014).
An RDoC Primer
In a widely discussed and controversial blog posting issued several weeks prior to the release of
DSM-5, then-NIMH Director Thomas Insel (2013) staked out a bold claim for RDoC: “NIMH
will be reorienting its research away from DSM categories. Going forward, we will be supporting
research projects that look across current categories—or subdivide current categories—to begin
to develop a better system.” Nevertheless, in subsequent communications, Insel made clear that
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NIMH would continue to fund grants that included data on DSM categories, but that it would
prioritize those that emphasized transdiagnostic etiological processes.
At least for the foreseeable future, RDoC is not envisioned as a system of psychiatric classifi-
cation in its own right. Instead, in the near term, RDoC and DSM-ICD are expected to coexist.
Nevertheless, RDoC is intended to provide scaffolding for a large-scale research program that
will ultimately yield an alternative to DSM-ICD (MacDonald & Krueger 2013).
RDoC adopts no a priori stance on what form a new model of classification will eventually
take (Insel 2014). In the words of a recent NIMH director and his colleagues, RDoC is “a vision
for the future” (Insel et al. 2010, p. 749) rather than a fleshed-out proposal. As of this writing,
RDoC is largely fluid in its mission. Such flexibility is probably justifiable in the early phases of
scientific investigation, in which hypothesis generation (the context of discovery) should often
take precedence over hypothesis testing (the context of justification; Kell & Oliver 2004).
Still, the RDoC research program is not entirely open-ended. RDoC provides researchers
with an explicit rubric for guiding investigations. As can be seen in Figure 1, RDoC proposes
that research efforts be conducted within a two-dimensional matrix (Morris & Cuthbert 2012,
Weinberger & Goldberg 2014). This matrix took shape following a series of workshops held over
an 18-month period that involved panels of experts in different domains of neural circuitry. On
the horizontal axis are seven units of analysis organized roughly from more to less “basic”: genes,
molecules, cells, circuits, physiology, behavior, and self-reports (the matrix also includes a column
for paradigms, allowing investigators to indicate which tasks are useful for the research question
at hand). On the vertical axis are five broad domains/constructs that correspond to brain-based
circuits deemed relevant to psychopathology: negative valence systems (e.g., threat, loss), positive
valence systems (e.g., approach motivation, responsiveness to reward), cognitive systems (e.g.,
attention, working memory), systems for social processes (e.g., theory of mind, dominance), and
arousal/regulatory systems.
RDoC rests on several assumptions, four of which are especially crucial (Cuthbert & Insel
2013). First, RDoC is explicitly transdiagnostic in seeking markers of dysfunctional psychobiolog-
ical circuitry that transcend multiple traditional disorder categories; in this respect, it is Galilean in
its presuppositions. Second, RDoC is translational in emphasis, encouraging researchers to apply
the basic science of brain systems and behavior to an understanding of mental disorders. Third,
RDoC adopts a dimensional framework in light of evidence that the activity of most brain circuits,
such as reward and threat systems, is continuously distributed, with few or no clear-cut bound-
aries demarcating normality from abnormality. Fourth, RDoC strives to accord roughly equal
weight to different levels of analysis, including the biological and behavioral (Cuthbert & Insel
2013).
UNITS OF ANALYSIS
Domains/constructs Genes Molecules Cells Circuits Physiology Behavior Self-reports Paradigms
Negative valence systems
Acute threat (”fear”)
Potential threat (”anxiety”)
Sustained threat
Loss
Frustrative nonreward
Cognitive systems
Attention
Perception
Working memory
Declarative memory
Language behavior
Cognitive (effortful) control
Arousal/regulatory systems
Arousal and regulation (multiple)
Resting state activity
Figure 1
The provisional matrix for the Research Domain Criteria (RDoC).
RDoC as holding out the promise of generating a competing, and ideally more valid, system of
classification relative to that of DSM-ICD. At the same time, RDoC confronts a number of
challenges, many of which have received short shrift in ongoing discussions (but see Berenbaum
2013, Lilienfeld 2014b, Shankman & Gorka 2015).
In the following section, we examine three overarching sets of challenges to RDoC: (a) con-
ceptual, (b) methodological, and (c) practical/logistical (see also Lilienfeld 2014b). Although there
is overlap among these three sets of challenges, we differentiate them for expository purposes.
Given that we intend to be constructive, we devote considerably more space to RDoC’s potential
weaknesses than to its potential strengths. Nevertheless, this differential space allotment should
not be construed as implying that we view RDoC’s weaknesses as outweighing its strengths. To
the contrary, we focus on these weaknesses in the hope that researchers and theorists, including
RDoC’s architects, will pay them greater heed and thereby increase the likelihood that RDoC
will bear scientific fruit. Because we do not perceive any of these challenges as insurmountable,
we hope that our delineation of them plays a role in shaping the future direction of RDoC.
Falsifiability
Popper (1959) famously argued that for a theoretical model to be scientific, it must be capable
in principle of being proven wrong. Although few contemporary philosophers of science accept
Popper’s premise that falsifiability is the lone demarcation criterion separating science from non-
science (Pigliucci & Boudry 2013), many concur that this feature is one key indicator of a model’s
scientific status. Moreover, Popper maintained that science ideally progresses by means of “severe”
or “risky” tests (see also Meehl 1978), those that place theories at grave risk of falsification.
In the case of RDoC, it is not evident what findings would suggest that it is not mapping
well onto the state of nature, or at least falling considerably short of its avowed goals. Nor is it
entirely clear what would constitute “negative” findings—results that would indicate that RDoC
is a flawed endeavor that is not leading to a feasible alternative model of classification. In our view,
it is incumbent on RDoC’s developers to lay out a set of provisional but explicit benchmarks by
which its progress, or lack of progress, can be gauged.
In a related vein, it will be critical to address the question of whether RDoC, especially once it is
better developed, is superior to the DSM-ICD model in predicting theoretically and pragmatically
relevant external criteria, such as natural history and treatment response. Based on our conversa-
tions with current and would-be RDoC grantees, it is our impression that researchers submitting
proposals within the RDoC framework are being discouraged from pitting RDoC-relevant mark-
ers against DSM diagnoses in their capacity to predict such criteria. Such advice would be ill
conceived, as it could hamper long-term efforts to ascertain whether RDoC is performing as well
as, or ideally better than, the extant system.
A further issue that bears on the falsifiability of RDoC is the distinction between conver-
gent and discriminant validity (Campbell & Fiske 1959, Cole 1987). The lion’s share of RDoC
research focuses on convergent validity, such as demonstrating that presumed markers are predic-
tive of their hypothesized RDoC domains (Shankman & Gorka 2015). For example, it is useful to
demonstrate that fear-potentiated startle is related to intrusive memories, and fear-related mem-
ories are associated with a traumatic event (Norrholm et al. 2014). This finding suggests that
fear-potentiated startle is a valid indicator of the RDoC negative valence domain, especially its
acute threat (fear) subconstruct. Nevertheless, it will be at least equally crucial to demonstrate
that putative markers are not associated with, or at least are less associated with, nonhypothesized
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RDoC domains. For example, it will be important to show that fear-potentiated startle is largely
unassociated with markers of the RDoC arousal/modulatory domain, which should theoretically
be largely independent of fear, although it may be predictive of levels of baseline startle.
biological vulnerabilities may often be constrained by sociocultural factors. For example, religious
beliefs, as well as regional differences in the pricing and availability of alcohol, are associated
with—and probably causally linked to—risk for alcohol use disorder (Kendler 2012). Hence, even
individuals with a potent genetic propensity toward alcohol use disorder may display low rates of
this condition if raised in a socially traditional environment.
Furthermore, five of the seven RDoC units of analysis focus explicitly on biological indicators,
raising concerns that biological levels of analysis may receive undue attention by investigators
(Berenbaum 2013). Although several RDoC publications (e.g., Morris & Cuthbert 2012) have
acknowledged the importance of psychosocial variables and developmental considerations in the
RDoC program, these processes are not explicitly represented in the matrix, an omission that
RDoC may wish to remedy.
Fueling this concern is the fact that some researchers appear to have assumed erroneously
that indicators drawn from one level of analysis (e.g., physiological, behavioral) are necessarily
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best suited for detecting abnormalities at that level. For example, in response to Berenbaum’s
(2013) concern that RDoC underemphasizes the role of beliefs, emotions, and other potential
emergent phenomena that are not reducible strictly to neural events (O’Connor, 1994), Cuthbert
& Kozak (2013) wrote that “Berenbaum is right in supposing that research that relies exclusively
on self-report data would fall outside of the RDoC approach” (p. 933). The reasons for this a
priori exclusion are unclear. Such decisions should be adjudicated by data, not by fiat. There is
no inherent reason why self-report measures, which can readily capitalize on aggregation across
indicators of behavior, cognition, and emotion across diverse situations, cannot provide equally—
or more—construct-valid measures of biological systems relative to biological markers of these
systems.
The distinction between basic tendencies and characteristic adaptations highlights the point
that individuals with similar biological predispositions toward psychopathology can manifest these
predispositions in different ways, in part as a consequence of developmental and psychosocial
factors. If so, RDoC may be insufficient as a model for mental disorder, as it may often be unable
to distinguish physiological risk factors for psychopathology from psychopathology per se (see
also Wakefield 2014). If so, RDoC, at least in its present form, may be better suited as a model of
predispositions toward mental illness than of mental illness itself.
RDoC’s emphasis on dimensionality, as they suggest that multiple patients may arrive at the same
score on an RDoC construct for different reasons. For one patient, a tendency to ruminate may
lead to difficulty sleeping, producing fatigue, which then leads to less energy for social activities,
and ultimately to social isolation and a depressed state. For this patient, symptoms related to
fatigue and depression lie causally downstream of rumination, representing a normal biologic
response to an extreme (internal) environment that is probably mediated by altered default network
function (Pizzagalli 2011). A similar end state may be attained through different pathways: A second
patient may suffer from chronic inflammation, which induces hypodopaminergia and symptoms
of anhedonia and fatigue (Felger & Miller 2014, Miller et al. 2009). RDoC does not explicitly
address this type of heterogeneity underlying common symptom severity.
In his classic book Personality and Assessment, Mischel (1968) observed that even seemingly
trivial changes in experimental paradigms can lead to dramatic changes in a measure’s inter-
correlations and correlations with other measures. Ironically, Kidd et al. (2013) demonstrated
this point using the very paradigm that Mischel (1974) made famous: the marshmallow test
of delay of gratification in children. They showed that a seemingly trivial alteration in the
experimental set-up—namely, whether an adult who had promised to bring a set of attractive art
supplies to the child immediately prior to the task actually did so—resulted in massive changes in
outcomes. Specifically, children exposed to the “reliable” adult waited an average of 12 minutes,
whereas children exposed to the “unreliable” adult waited an average of only 2 minutes. Kidd
and colleagues interpreted this result as suggesting that children who encounter unpredictable
environments are less likely than other children to delay gratification, as they have ample reason
to doubt whether expected rewards will materialize.
Block (1977; see also Tellegen 1991) similarly noted that T data (test data), that is, data de-
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rived from isolated laboratory indicators, are more unreliable and erratic in their relations with
(a) each other and (b) other measures compared with S data (self-report data) and R data (rating
data). Although S and R data possess their own psychometric limitations, these data are typically
aggregated across multiple diverse situations. Such aggregation is often accomplished by sum-
ming items within scales, or in more sophisticated analyses, by creating latent variables using such
techniques as structural equation modeling, which minimizes situational error and yields more
reliable and construct-valid composites of behavior across situations (Epstein 1980, Rushton et al.
1983). In contrast, T data are rarely aggregated across situations, at best being combined only
across multiple trials of the same measure.
These problems may be especially acute in the domain of neuroimaging. Few investigators have
examined the test-retest reliability of measures of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI;
Bennett & Miller 2010), even though this form of reliability is a basic expectation of measures
in other psychological domains. In an analysis of 63 studies, Bennett & Miller (2010) found
that the test-retest reliability of fMRI measures was typically modest, with intraclass correlations
(ICCs) averaging 0.50 (see also Vul et al. 2009). Furthermore, only 29% of activated voxels that
were statistically significant in one study were significant in a second study. Although test-retest
reliabilities for fMRI data were higher with briefer intervals, even back-to-back scans (taken within
one hour) exhibited an average cluster overlap of only 33%.
At the same time, because some of the neural processes examined in these studies may have
been influenced substantially by state variables, these modest test-retest values may reflect inher-
ent short-term fluctuations in the neural processes themselves rather than measurement error.
Scanning can be an unfamiliar experience for many participants, and initial anxiety or discomfort
in the scanner may change over repeated exposures. Moreover, repeated exposures to cognitive
tests will invariably lead to learning, even if only at the level of greater familiarity and fluency.
It would be surprising if these changes were not reflected in differences in neural responses. One
recent study used a relatively large sample to examine how activity in the ventral striatum (VS)
during the feedback phase of a rewarded instrumental conditioning task changed over time as
compared with activity during the anticipation phase (Chase et al. 2015). As would be predicted
by temporal-discounting models of reinforcement learning (Schultz et al. 1997), VS responses
to better-than-expected outcomes during the first scanning session were robust but were nearly
absent during the second session. Conversely, VS responses to anticipation were absent during the
first session but significant during the second. Moreover, the magnitude of feedback-related VS
activity at session 1 predicted the magnitude of anticipatory VS activity at session 2. This outcome-
to-cue transfer in VS activity patterns suggests a change due to learning, but it also contributes to
low interclass correlations when simply comparing the same condition across testing sessions.
These effects may also vary across different types of tasks and conditions. For example, Sauder
et al. (2013) reported that the reliability of fMRI measures of amygdala activation was adequate
in response to fearful faces (ICCs ranged from 0.32 to 0.43) but inadequate in response to angry
faces (ICCs ranged from −0.24 to 0.11). In contrast, structural MRI measures appear to have
considerably higher test-retest reliability (Kendler & Neale 2010). For example, the stability of
measures of cortical thickness as assessed by structural MRI is on the order of r = 0.95 (Wonderlick
et al. 2009).
Even the fMRI research center at which the study is conducted accounts for approximately
8% of the variance in fMRI blood oxygen-level dependent (BOLD) signal results, suggesting that
the laboratory itself is a potential source of error in analyses (Costafreda et al. 2007). Another
investigation revealed that the median ICC of fMRI findings across different imaging centers that
contained identical hardware set-ups was only 0.22 (Friedman et al. 2008).
All of these psychometric limitations may impede the replicability of functional imaging find-
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ings unless addressed analytically. Adding to these concerns are findings that the average statistical
power of functional brain imaging studies is only about 0.20, which is considerably lower than
in most domains of psychological and psychiatric research (Button et al. 2013). Low power not
only increases the chances of type II errors (false negative results), but also boosts the likelihood
of overestimating the effect sizes of statistically significant findings, a phenomenon known as the
winner’s curse (Button & Munafo 2016). Replicability concerns are not limited to functional brain
imaging studies. Using a fresh sample of college students as participants, Boekel and colleagues
(2015) attempted to replicate 17 published studies on the relation between structural brain imag-
ing findings and psychological findings derived from self-reported data and other measures (e.g., a
previously reported positive correlation between amygdala gray matter and number of Facebook
friends). Using Bayesian methods, they found minimal support for any of the findings from the
previous 17 studies.
was schizophrenia. Their findings suggest that investigators should not assume that candidate
endophenotypes will necessarily yield higher effect sizes than do exophenotypes in genetic studies
(for a more sanguine view of the status of endophenotypes for schizophrenia, see Tan et al. 2008).
In contrast, Jonas & Markon (2014) reported more encouraging results. They examined the
relation between (a) three polymorphisms in the dopamine and serotonin systems that are poten-
tially relevant to impulsivity and (b) diagnostic (e.g., measures of ADHD), trait (e.g., self-report
measures of impulsivity), neuropsychological (e.g., continuous performance tasks), and neurobio-
logical (e.g., functional imaging indices of right inferior prefrontal activity) phenotypes relevant to
impulsivity. Neurobiological measures were the most highly associated with the genetic markers,
with trait and neuropsychological measures roughly tied for a distant second, and diagnostic mea-
sures last. These analyses suggest that neurobiological measures, such as functional brain imaging
indices, may be promising endophenotypes of impulsivity. Still, as the authors observed, neurobi-
ological studies were characterized by considerably lower statistical power than studies from other
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domains, raising the possibility that the effect sizes of the former studies were inflated.
One prominent model of endophenotypes conceptualizes them as intermediate phenotypes,
operating as mediators between genes and exophenotypes. Nevertheless, the evidence that candi-
date endophenotypes mediate the relation between genes and behavioral phenotypes is slim. In a
twin sample, Kendler et al. (1993) found that although neuroticism was associated with elevated
rates of major depression, it did not mediate the association between genetic risk and major de-
pression. Waldman (2005) reported inconsistent findings concerning whether scores on the Trail
Making Test mediate relations between dopamine genes and ADHD, with partial mediation for
Trails A but no significant mediation for Trails B.
Such mediation should not be presumed, as certain putative endophenotypes may lie causally
downstream of the exophenotypes with which they are associated (Kendler & Neale 2010). For
example, P300 amplitude appears to be a valid endophenotype for a broad predisposition toward
externalizing behavior and disinhibition (Patrick et al. 2006). Nevertheless, P300 amplitude is
exquisitely sensitive to attention (Polich 2012). Hence, this marker may be a consequence, not
an antecedent, of the attentional and motivational deficits associated with externalizing disorders,
such as antisocial personality and substance use disorders, which covary extensively with ADHD
(Lilienfeld & Waldman 1990, Torgersen et al. 2006).
One crucial assumption guiding the search for endophenotypes is that the biological indicators
in question are trait rather than state markers, as a measure of a biological vulnerability would
be expected to be stable over time. Again, the trait status of such markers must be demonstrated
empirically rather than assumed (Stoyanov & Kandilarova 2014). For example, motion discrimina-
tion appears to be impaired in both patients with schizophrenia and in their nonaffected relatives,
suggesting that it is a useful trait marker of the disorder. In contrast, motion integration appears to
be impaired in patients with schizophrenia but not in their nonaffected relatives, suggesting that
it is influenced by state variables (Chen et al. 2006). One major challenge for researchers will be
to demonstrate that endophenotypes, as well as other ostensible vulnerability markers of RDoC
domains, are present even between disorder episodes or exacerbations.
& Insel 2013). In this regard, this matrix appears to represent a reasonable compromise between
excessive open-endedness and excessive prescriptiveness.
At the same time, there is a danger of premature reification of the matrix and of the RDoC
endeavor more broadly; it would indeed be unfortunate if the march to freedom from the DSM’s
“epistemic prison” (Hyman 2010, p. 157) led merely to a padded cell in the matrix penitentiary.
A number of scholars have cautioned against such reification in the frequent (mis)interpretation
of DSM categories as settled truths (Kendler 2014), and RDoC must be careful to avoid the same
error. In fairness, the RDoC framers have repeatedly described their intentions for the matrix
to be a working document. Good intentions, however, may afford inadequate protection against
ossification, which can easily insinuate itself through the mundane, bureaucratic activities required
by any large-scale administrative effort. For instance, several recent requests for applications
(RFAs) from NIMH have noted that “Applications must focus on at least one of the constructs
that have been defined in these RDoC workshops” (NIH RFA-MH-14-050; see Shankman &
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Gorka 2015). Such wording appears to vitiate RDoC’s avowed goal of being self-correcting, as it
will be difficult or impossible to ascertain whether to add novel cells to the matrix unless these
cells are explicitly investigated. Social cognition research suggests that once mental categories are
set in place, they can quickly become implacable (McCrae & Bodenhausen 2000). To avoid the
error of reification, RDoC should encourage researchers to examine psychobiological constructs
that have the potential to bridge, transcend, or challenge current matrix boundaries, as well as
articulate an explicit process of matrix evaluation and revision. Additionally, RFAs should offer as
much consideration to proposals that seek to explicitly challenge matrix boundaries as they do to
proposals that operate within them.
Although the RDoC matrix was constructed to be broad and flexible, a number of fruitful
hypotheses exist that may be challenging to capture within its framework. For example, some
studies suggest that emotional numbing and alexithymia may be core facets of reduced approach-
related behaviors, but only in the context of response to a traumatic experience, as in posttraumatic
stress disorder (Kashdan et al. 2006). It is not clear, however, how this type of etiology-by-symptom
interaction would be examined within the RDoC framework.
Abbreviations: DSM, Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders; ICD, International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems;
RDoC, Research Domain Criteria.
heretofore portrayed these two models in bold relief as competing, we are inclined to regard them
as complementary in certain key respects. Each approach is necessary; neither is sufficient.
In our view, the DSM-ICD will never provide a sufficient foundation for a comprehensive clas-
sification system, because psychiatric signs and symptoms, like fever, are inevitably nonspecific
indicators of a host of psychobiological dysfunctions. Conversely, RDoC will never be sufficient for
a comprehensive classification system, because psychobiological dysfunctions can be manifested
in a host of markedly diverse signs and symptoms as a function of innumerable moderating vari-
ables. As a consequence, a full characterization of psychopathology will require the DSM-ICD’s
remarkably astute descriptive observations, informed by the best available research on neural cir-
cuitry relevant to psychopathology. If it attends carefully to the constructive challenges posed here,
RDoC and the fruits of its labor hold the potential to complete the story that Emil Kraepelin, the
Washington University group, and Robert Spitzer started.
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DISCLOSURE STATEMENT
The authors are not aware of any affiliations, memberships, funding, or financial holdings that
might be perceived as affecting the objectivity of this review.
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Annual Review of
Clinical Psychology
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Indexes
Errata
viii Contents