UNIT 5 POPULATION PRESSURE

Structure

5.2 Population Growth

5.2.1 Theory of ?vialthus
5.2.2 Theory of Karl M a n
5.2.3 Theory of E ~ t e B
r ose~p
5.2.4 Theory of Lotka
5.2.5 Theory of 1)emographic Tramitlo11
5.2.6 Optinium Theory of Population
5.2.7 Theory of Net Keprpduction Raia
5.3 Demographic Measures
5.7.1 Growth Rate and Anilual (iyowth Rate
5.3.2 Clrowth R%tet :urve
5.4 Populatian Density
5.5 Population Distribution
5.5.1 Factors Affecting Population Distribution
5.5.2 Distribution in Urban and Rural A w
5.6 Population and Water Suvply Scheme
5.6.1 Future Pc~pulrdion
5.6.2 I)es~gnPenod
Populatio~~
Forecasting
5.7.1 Demographic Method
5.7.2 Arithmetic ~ r c > g r e s s Mvthod
i(~~
5.7.3 Ckornetric pmguessioi~Metllod
5:T4 Inoremenlal Incrrasc Msthcxl
5.75 U p p h i ~Projection
~l Method
5.7.6 Graphi~?l(lompariso? W h o J
5.7.7 Logistic Method
5.7.8 M-7 P.(;uIw Z o i ~ i ~Ue h ~ t
5.8 Population Probleins
5.8.1 Causes of Pupulrtt~onExplos~on
5.8.2 Measures for PopuQGlutt Control
7.8.3 Population Pdicy of Inctia

5.9 Summary:
5.10 Key Wards
5,11 Answers to SAQS

Population censuh ~rlumeratiom,and growth in populatitian ev., we not only used in

denlographic sphere but also by Engineers and ptpple coacen~edwith econor4ic grc~wth,
~iatioaalplwu~ingand policy decisio~l~q&*ingi~ the sectors of agriculture, ~ t o w t hin
industries and infraswlcture, drinking water supply schemes, and other social welfare
activities etc. In formulating Water supply schemes for a township, the data analysis
pertaii~i~~g to and populutioi~to be served cotlsfitutes one of the egsential compon&~ts.
The estwation ot future growth ill population, industrial developmgmI activities and other
t a c h s such as living standard of people are also to be M e n into gciccount so as to satisfy~the

sb*
community needs for ilumber of years to come (called design riod). Similarly, it is also -
required for the purpose of estimating Bture need of food gr n productioi~and thus planning
for sustainable irrigation scbepies.
i
The world over population isirowing rapidly and Indig 1s no exception to it. The world's
population, which wus only ahout 500 million in 165VA.D., is expected to be 7,000 million at
tbe heginning of 21stcentury. At the beginning of dth century, there were only about 600
~nillioilpeople in the woxld. By 1975, aorld's populajion reached 3,978 million. 111 1991 there
were more tlmn 5,500 million people, This sl~owstlnt the world's population in the p r c s c ~ ~ ~
time is growing more rapidly tluo in t L past. According to UNFTA (1996). the world's
populatio~~in the year 2025 will be 8,204.3 milliot~.

being camed out every 10 years,

,
Similar rapid growth of popt~lation1x1s been experielloed in India. Since 1881. the census I?
population of our cou~~try wlucb was only 36 1 nill lion
in 1951 has snowballed to 846.3 rnilljon in I99i. T l ~ epopulation clock installed near All
I
India Institute of Medical Sciences (NIMS), New Rellli IDS clocked an estimated population
a little less than 990 milliol~at the beginnillg of the year 1L)L)C). According to the projectio~~s
made by the office of the Registrar General of India: the populatisq of India, wluch was
estimated to be 934 million in 1996, would reach 1.264 ~nilliollby the year 2016 Thus one
may say that every year around 16.5 milli~ppeople are added to the country's populatlon.
However, it may be noted that population is grwing at a compounding mte. 11e11ceon the
sane token it can not be said that by the year 2050 our jwpulation will be only about 1,825
million. It will be a much larger figure if otlar measures to c o ~ ~ tthe~ ogmwtl~
l of popillation
are not taken. Such large numbers, quite clearly, piag to create heavy blirden on our
resources and will add to numerous other problems. The increase in population creates 'i
additional demands for water. food, clothing. housing, education, &a&pottation and so o n -
Therefore, reasonable estimates of population are *madebefore planning fbr any scheme. -i
Objectives I
After studying this unit, you sl~ouldbe able to
describe and compare strengths and weaknesses of different theories 01' populatia~l
I
I
growth,
present a critic of dfle~nttl~eoriesof population growth.
distinguish between salient features of population theory of Malthus and tlleo~yof
demograpl~transition.
comment on usefulness of different theories of populatiei~
compute the m l l a l gmwtl) rate froin the available population en~~nleratiol~.
list and describe various factors influcncit& population density a14 populatio~~
distribution,
wrik a short note on design period for water supply schemes,
astinlate the fuiure population of a particular area with the lwlp of available
population censw enurnwatio~~s, and
describe problc~nrelated to incrgase in w ~ u l a t i o nand their remedial measures
I-
-
Growl11of population is of' great concern to people engaged in policy planning 3114decisio~?
making at the national level. Population growth means the change (increase) of p o p u l a t ~ o ~ ~
size b e m e n two dates. However, a populatiou increasing in size is said to have a positive
growth rate and tlx one declining is to have a negative growth rate. Tl~enumber of
inhabitants of a country depends on
i) the rate of growth in population, andi
I
ii) Ipigration.
The second fa-r is of ilnportancc only m new countries aud the old countries are-the sourcaA
of migrants (e.g. U.K.. India). In Asiatic countries, migrations are of less significant: %{he-.
first factor viz t l ~ er m of natural growth in population is of much vital importance. But
-- .
migration is of greiat inlportance in the study of growth of population of metropolitan cit~es
like Dellli, Mumbai. Kanpur ard Calcutta and other townships wlwe p p l s are migrating
from neigl~bouringrural areas to distnct l~eadquartersfor the sake of employ urent and better
livings.
In the earlier tittles, illcrease hpopulation was consider& to be God's gift and good for the
progress of nlarlkind until Thomas Robert Malthus, an English, eeme r > ~wit11
t his theory on
population growth in 1798. Since then various attempts have been nude to formulate
economic pnnciples relating to populatlon and different theories have been proposed. The
following theories are of much inlportaece :
 i) The theory of Maltlius. PopulJ i o l ~I'F(~SSIII~C

ii) The optimum theory of Cannon,

iii) The theory of Demographic Tramition, and
iv) Tlie theory of Net Reproduction Rate.

I In additions to tlie above theories. you are also introduced to theories given by Karl Marx,
Ester Bosenlp. and Lotka. The theories of demographic transition, net reproduction rate can
be grouped into biological theories as they mainly concentrates on biological factors.

5.2.1 Theory of Malthus

Malthus's theoq of population (1798) mainly deals with tlie rate of growth of populatio~iand
the affects of such growth on the community. The salient features of thus theory are given
below :
a) Rapid Growth in Population
Population increases at a fast rate. According to Malthus. it grows by geometrical
progression and the population in majority of countries gets doubled in twenty four years.
Geoinetrical Progression in simple terms can be expressed as a /' where n varies fro~ii0
to infinity, and r and a dareconstants for a series. for example, the series 1, 2, 4, IS. 16,
32.......... is a geometric progression series.
b) Slow Growth in Food Supply
Tlie food supply in a country increases at a much slower rate in comparisoii to the growth
ui population. It increases in Aritllnletical progression. Arithmetical progression ineans
increase by addition, as in tlie series say 1, 2, 3.4, ...... etc.
C) Over-Population
As a result of the difference between the rate of growth of population and die rate of
growtli of food supply, we find that in every country, sooner or later, food shortage occurs.
The stage of such kind of shortage in food supply is known as a stage of over-poptdation.
d) The Malthusian Cycle
At the stage of over-population grave problems arise. Shortage of food causes
maliintrition, famine, disease and deadly epidemic condition. Hunger leads to invasions of
war. This kind of sihmtion was termed as the 'Positive Checks' by Malthus. Due to these
positive checks, populatio~iis reduced and the balance with the production of food is
restored. But such balance is a short-lived one. For the inherent urge to ~ni~ltiply
soon
results in increase of population again and again which overtakes tlie food-supply. This
sequence of events is called the Malthusiaii cycIe.
e) Preventing Checks
Tlie only way of escaping the unfortunate sequence of events of Malthusian cycle can be
foulid in exercising tlie control over the growtli of population. According to Malthus this
can be achieved by two methods namely, late rnaniage and celibacy (i.e. to remain
unmarried throughout the life). He called these liieasures to be tlie Preventing cliecks.

Criticism of the Theory of Malthus

The theory of population given by Maltlius has been criticised for the following reasons:
a) The esperielice shows that the proposition tllat the population and food supply grow in
geometric and arithmetic progression. respectively does not hold always to be tnle and
accurate.
, However, this criticism can be overlooked because Maltlius used the formulas as exa~ilples
to illusmte dissimilar nature of growth of population and food supply.
b) It can not be said with all the firmness tllat an increase in population creates only demand
for food as it is also capable of increasing the food production whch may keep pace with
increase in population as well. Malthus failed to consider that the additional increments of
population are also capable of food production wluch inay be sufficient to meet the
demand.
However. it may be said that for agricultural production, the law of diminishing returns
applies as tlie land is limited. Further an increase in manpower does not necessarily yield
sufficient agricultural produces to meet the demand. There may be situations where there
Water b m m d may be diminishing returns despite ixnprove~nentsin agricultural practices.
c) The population can not be said to be related only to food production but also to the total
wealth of tlie country and that additional population can be supported by imports of food
grains. The economic history of 19th and 20th cenhlry clearly indi,cates tllat it has bee11
possible for an industrialised nation to maintain a large population throtlghimport of food
gmim in exchange of its industrial products. The United Kingdom a i d Saudi Arab are the
best examples to quote. Saudi Arnb exports its crude oil and meets its requirement of food
by imports. Similarly U.K. exports its industrial goods and i~nportsfood. Therefore. man)
economists are of the opinion that increase in population should be viewed not in relation
to the food production but in relation to total wealth of the country includng induslrial
production
Against this criticism^ however one may say tllat it is not necessary tlat there may always
be surplus food production in other countries and hence the surplus food productioll nlay
not be true in the long run.
d) Malthus took no account of scientific advances or inventions in increasing the produrctivit!
in agriculture and industry. During 19th and 20th century there llas been tremendous
increase of productivity in agriculture and industry.
e) Malthus considered that higher standard of living produces more population which do=
nut liold true. Statistics shows that cultural advancement produces a decline in the birth
mte. Spread of education leads to a higher standard of living and late marriage which
results in decline in the birth nte.
f) The positive checks such as famine, disease, waretc&m not be said to be due to
over-population.These nah~ralcalamities can also occur in less populated countries.
g) Tlie preventing checks suggested by Malthus are not very effective. It is very difficult and
unnatml to lead a life with celibacy. Artificial methods of birth control are much more
effective in checking population
Agdlnst this criticism, it can be said that at the time of Malthus in 17th centuq, artificial
methods of birth control were not invented.
After analysing the above criticism, it can be said that Maltlius theory is true to a great extelll
However, Maltlius theory is not applicable in developed countries of Westenl Europe and
U.S.A. where rate of population growth llas fallen. Industrial and Agricultural productlvlty
has risen and shortage of food is not a problem in developed countries. But, in the case of
developing regions of the world like India, and South-east Asian countries; the Malthus
theory is proving true even today. Tlie danger of over-populations is real in the
under-developed countries. Therefore, the authorities in such nations cannot afford to ignore
die predctions of Malthus. Even developed countries like U.S.A and European countries
adopted artificial method of birth control to check population only on the basis of Malthus
predictions
-
5.2.2 Theory of Karl Marx
The follower of Karl Mars. ~ e l h npublished Karl Mvlam's theory of population which w&
mainly critic of Maltlius' theory. According to this theory, increasing population can always
produce more food; but in capitalist society money, land, machinery get concentrated in few
luilds not resulting in lugher food production and hence its availability to population is
restricted or reduced. According to Marx, tlie enviro~unentaleffects are not the sole
determining factor in developlnent and economic progress of society. He considered the
methods of procuring livelihood, human abilities. e.g. skill and experience as the important
factors to increase productivity. Therefore in view of changing society, the theory of Marx
rejected Malthus' theory.

5.2.3 Theory of Ester Boserup

According to madam Ester Boserup, the increasing population density is the major cause of
agricultural change. You inay recall that Malthus assumes that increase in food supply allows
population to grow but she co~isiderspopulation growth to be independent of food supply and
rather it is the population growth tllat causes change in agriculture. FuitRer acerding to her.
this increase in population forces to produce more and work hard else people prefer to leisure
than to maxi~niseprofit. The farmers do not try improved methods of food production and
reduction in fallow land unless tliey are forced do so.
Amongst the major criticism of this theory is that the farmers are not leisure maxiniiser and
they may try to increase output to meet taxation dem'ands etc.
 Later. Boserup n~odifi'edher theory recognising that the farmers tnay migrate to unoccupied
areas and need not reduce fallow land only.
,*
5.2.4 Theory of Lotka
Lotkii's theory deals with evolution of female population. its fertility and age spec~fic
mortality. This theory does not recog~usemarriage. In this theory over all fertility of men and
women together is converted into fertility in terms of women only. According to Lotka's
theory, a population wluch is exposed for ever to unchanging coitditions of over 1111fertility
and age-specific mortality tends towards a populatioll with an unchanging age distribution
and growth rate. The population at limits is considered to be stable.
he rate of increase of a stable population, r depends upon net feproduction rate Po and
average age ii of net fertility distribution and the relationship c a t be written as

log (1 + r ) = log =-
ro
n

Furlher. if the above equation is valid for female population t l ~ the

n sex ratio of stable
population does not change and the growth in population is equal for itlei1 ard women.

5.2.5 Theory of Demographic Transition

The theory of demographic transition is the most accepted. It racogniees tlie result of
economic and social development on population change over a time. It assumes that fertility
and mortality both decline from lug11 level to low level and decline in mortality generally
precedes decline in fertility. This ultimately nstllts in lugh population growth during
transition period.
Historical and statistical observations show that population does not alway s grow at a fast
rate. The rate of growth of populatioi~varies from time to time in every ccimltr).. If the rate of
growtll of population is graphically charted it looks like the S - shaped curve also kt~owvas
"the Logistic curve". This shows that initially population illcreases very slowly, then
I
Ecimparatlvely rapidly and finally becomes either stationary or declines, These phenomena
may by explaiiled as below :
Early Stage -In early stTge of development of a country there are obstacles to the growth of
population like lack of security, lack of food. unfavourable social customs, etc. Therefore,
population grotvs slowly. This situation is found in tribal conmunities and primitive
civilisations.
Intermediate Stage - With development, the obstacles are removed and populatioll grows
rapidly. For esznple. India is experiencing lugh rate of poplllatio~~ growth since 1950. and in
U.S.A in the 19th century rate of population growth was high. This stage has been tenned as
the stage of "Population Explosion". Population explosion creates an imbalance in the
econon~icstability and a transition period is required to bring it back to normal: and hence,
the theory is tenned as tl~etheory of de~nographictransition.
Final Stage -No sooner the community reaches an advanced stage of civilisation, the rate of
growth becomes steady or declines. This situation can be found in developed nations such as
U.K, France, and other West European Countries.
Finland is the best example to quote in tlus category. During 1785-1790 high birth rate a l ~ d
high death rate caused little or no increase of actual population with rate of increase 0.6 %:
During 1825-1830 due to high birth rate and falling death rate, high growth rate of actual
population (1.4 %) was observed. However, during 1910-1915 declining birth rate and
relatively low death rate caused decrease in growtli rate of population (1.2 %), and during
1370-1976 becaiise of low death rate and low birth rate, v e v little growth rate of population
(0.3 %I) was noticed.
According to Malthusian Theory, population always grows at a fast rate (in geo~l~etrical
population). But according to demogralic theory of trausition. population growth slows dow11
with the advance~nentin develop~ttentof culture and civilisation. Tl~ustile Biological Theory
holds out an optimistic view regarding tlie future of making.

5.2.6 Optimum Theory of Population

The optimum theory of population became popular in 1930's. It was worked out mairdy by
Eclwin Ca~lno~l
and Carr Saunders of the Lolldon School of Economics.
Water Demand The optimum theory of popidation does not deal wit11food supply. It attempts to find a
relationship between population and wealth production. The theory states that

"At any given time (in a countq) there is what nlay be called iI point of n~~simutir
return when the ainoilnt of labour is such tlut botli an increase and decrease ~ I itI
would dimi~usliproportioimte ret1u-m. If tlie popidation is not large el~oi~gh ro
bring all industries upto tlus point, rehlnis will be less tlmn they 11lig11lbe and the
remedy is increase of populatio~r.if on the other Ikqnd. population is so great that
tlie point Ins been passed. returns are again less tl~enthey n~igl~t be and tlie rem-
edy is decrease of popdation."
Thus optimum theory is based on tlie concept of optiinutn population w ~ t hrcspect to the
optin~un~ productivity of a natiot~.The opti~nu~iipopulation is the niunlber of people wbich I \
necessary to exploit tlie resources of the country in the best possible nlalmer. It is the
population just sufficient to get tlie inaxi~nu~li
output with the capital. natural resollrces anrl
tecluiiques available at the tii~ieunder consideration. If tlie actual populatio~iis less tlian ll~e
optimum, increase of population increases the total ootpul of the colllitry ; ~at rate Iighcr than
in rate of increase in population. and the per capita incoii~eincrease. 011 the other l~and.#kc
surpassing of this opti~nlunpopiilatio~lnuolber. the total output does not increase
proportionally. wlule the number of sllares in tlie o i ~ t p ~increases,
~t lie~~ce
per capita ilrcoll~c
falls. The concept is represented in Figure 5.1.

L I I I C

~opulot ton
FIFE 5. I:Rdatlonship Between Population and Per ~ : a ~ Incoiiic~
tk

Criticism of Optimum Theory of ~opulation

The optitnutri theory of population is criticised on following colu~ts:
a) Optimum theory reflects R static concept
The opti~numpopulatio~~ theory concept is a static one. It is inapplicable and ~rreleva~lt to i1
dy ~lamicworld wliere tlie factors on which the size of optimum population depei~dsvi/
capital resources. techniques of production. modes of business organisation etc ;Ir-r: cousti~r~ll!
clmnging. Tl111soptimuin nnlst be a fluctwting figure. Tlle i ~ ~ v e ~ of
l t iaolabour
~ ~ s;ltllng
maclli~lery.for esample. wo~lldinunediately convert a country w ~ t hoptlmlun populatiorl to
over population conversely. the discovery of a new economic resource (e.g. n ucw n~inc)
would make the sune country under-populated.
b) Fluctuating population can not be tneasured
It is allnost i~npossibleto measure the optimum popdation as it is a fluctuating figure ; ~ n t l
depends on contin~~ously cllanging factors.
C) 'Ibeory believes in materialism
The optimu~ntheory is nlaterialistic for its focus on tle masi~nisationof the real ulcorla.
per capita but as we know that the real income constitutes a large nu~nberof goods ; I I I ~
services, some of wluch do not bring the weware of the people. For cMilutple. e s m
pop~~lation of whisky or cigarette increases the wealth of tlw: countn . but welfa~eol'll~e
people is reduced for their Imrmful consequences on the health and n~oralof the peoplc
For the reasons stated above. the o p t i n ~ ~trl~~ne o qof population cannot be used Ibr rl~c
purpose of forn~ulatinga populatio~~ policy. In short. the theory is specolative figalcnt of thc
mind without any real connection with the world. Further. it c,u~be said that this theon .g\c\
us a test of progress (viz the per capita income) and as long as the per capita lllcollle is r~sir~y
there is no danger from illcreasing population. But tl~etl~eoryis useless as a guide to
 economic policy. It is full of criticistn and diffi~rlltiesand hence the theory is ilo longer in use. Population I ' r r s s ~ ~ ~ . c

5.2.7 Theory of Net Reproduction Rate

Earlier. we discussed the theory of Den~ogmphicTransition. i ~ o wlet us study the theory of
Net Reproduction Rate. T l ~ ebiologists and statisticians llave omde intensive studies on
p.opdat~nggrowth and have atten~ptedto find out the principles goveniii~git. This theory
relates to measuring the population growth.
To work out Gross / N e t Reproduction Rate, age-specific ferfility rate (ASFR) is first
calculated using the following relationship:
No. of live births in a particularage group
ASFR = - ...(5.2)
Mid-year female populationof the sameage group
In pmctice, Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR) is calculated from the data for both tnale and
female births and from ASF'R per women for 5 years age groups. Therefore, the sum of ASFR
IS r~~riltiplied
by 5. The product is then divided by 2.05. The factor 2.05 1s arrived on the basis
of 'normal' sex rat10 al birth which is about I05 males per 100 fen~aleill most populations of
world. The GRR is given by
45-49
GrossReproductionRate = 5 x ASFR for female live births J5.3)
15-19
Note : In Eqn. (5.3) we have used ASF'R for fernale births only, therefore the factor 2.05 does
not find a place.
Tlie gross reproduction rate does not take into account the difference between the birth rate
i111d death mte in a country. It depends on the number of women in the cluld bearing age
group ( i t . 15 years - 50 years) and also on total number of female cluldren likely to be b o n ~
from the aforesaid group but it does not recognise that some women tnay die before
completion of child bearing period. However, the theory of net reproduction mte takes into
accollnt tllis aspect as well.
The Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) can be calculated by multiplying the survi\/al mte In each
group of the age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) per wollun for tl~ztage (taking into account
o~llyfemale births) and adding the products of nlultiplication. Tl~eoreticallyNRR of 1.00
indicates an exact replacement of the population, i.e. each WOIIILIII reaching cluld-bearing age
sltcceeds in ndsing one daugllter who survives the child-bearing age.
Example 5.1
C a the gross and net reproductiotl age fro111the following data:

FwAge of mother
(years)

(1)
ASFB
per woman

(2)
Survival rate from birth
to middle of the age
m""P
(3)
Expected survived
births per woman

(4 )
10-14 (J.07@Nl 0 50000 0 03500
I

Solution
Here. you lnay note that coluinn (4) is arrived at by nlultiplying coluinn (2) with
cohunn (3). and the class interval in column (I) is inclusive of boundary values.
To calculate GRR as well as NRR, t l ~ esum of the va111esin columns (2) and (4) is
worked out excluding the values corresponding to the age group before and after the
child bearing age group (i.e., in the present example first and last rows are excluded)
Water 1)nnand The desired sum of column (2) = 0.65662 and
Tlie desired sum colunin (4) = 0.46203.

0 65662
GRR = 5 x L = 1.60
2.05
0 46203
NRR = 5 -X = 1.13
2.05
Note : Please note tlut tlie colul~u~
(2) gives ASFR and not tlie ASFR for feniale llve bill 11s.
lience we lnve to use tlie factor 2.05.

5.3 DEMOGRAPHIC MEASURES

Delnographic analysis need certain niealls of espressions. These could be percentage cIi;~r~~:c.
ratio, proportion. rate of clnnge etc. You being students of engineering, we presulue t h ; ~ lthese
basics of ,uitlunetic you know very well and l~ellcewe shall provide you a very lin~ited
discussio~lon these aspects.
A population sex. lurballl rural etc. can be expressed or compared on the basis of perce1lt;ige
A mtio is used to express male felllale population, age group distribution etc. Proporlio~i
espresses the relative size of a part of whole population.

5.3.1 Growth Rate

Tlie crudest rneasllre of growtll rate of a population during a period is expressed as tlie c l i ; ~ ~ ~ ! ! ~ ~
in tlie size of population during tlut period as a percentage of populatioli at the begii111111:01
11mtperiod.

Pt, - Pt,
Percent Growth Rate = --- x 100
Ptl

wliere pl, andpl, refer to the size of population at the beginning and end of tlie per~odr~ndcr
reference. When tlie census is 10 years apart, it is called "'Decadd or Decerml;~lgrowth ~ t c "
Percent growth mte or "Percentage change" call be used to coliipare the grotvtl~rate4 of
various populations during a give11period provided the time-length of the period 1s salnc 11 IS
to be re~nernberedthat for colnparison of various growtli rates they have first to be convcrlerl
to the same time dumtion.
Annual Growth Rate
Growth rate per year is called "Annual growtll mte". Annual growtll rate (average) call be
found out simply by dividing the percentage change (percent growth rate) by tlie tillie Illten ;II
under reference.
1 Pt2- Pr,
.: Average or Aritlunetic annual growth rate = ------ x --- x 100
(tz - *I) f't,
But this Arithmetic annual growth mte if applied as such. does not provide the desired yield
of fiinl population after a certain tirne period (tz - tl). The discrepancy arises due to the fact .1
tlmt base of the population cllanges every subsequeilt year. Therefore, growth of poputatio~i 1
I
1 ~tos be dealt in the same way as the principle of cotnpoirrldi~lginterest mte. I
Therefore, "Annual Growth Rate" (or also tenned Geonletrical Growth rate) is given by tlic
equation

Pt, = Pt, (1 + r )(1 = - , I ) ..,(S.h)

where r is the fmctiornl "arulnal growth rate". Solving Equation (5.6). we get
logp,, = log p,, + (t2 - t l ) log (1 + r)

1% P,, - 1% P!,
(1 + r) = antilog
 r = antilog [ -
t2!tl o
lg):-
,' /
Example 5.2
Find out the growtli rate of India during 196 1 - 71. Given pi971 = 548, 159,652 and
PI961 = 439,234,771.
Solution
Percentage increase in 10 years period froni 1961 to 1971
P1971 -P1961
or decadal nowtli rate =

1 Pr, - P I ,
Arithmetic Annual growth rate = -x --- x 100
t2 - tl Pi,

Annual growth rate, or

Geonietnc growth rate = Antilog [t2

- tl )o
g:l ! -

= Antilog (-
1
10 log
548,159,652
439.234.771
= Antilog (9.62 x 10-3 - 1
= 1.0224 - 1 = 0.0224
i.e. = 2.24 %

5.3.2 Growth Rate Curve

Wlien all tlie unpredictable factors such as war, or natural disasters do not produce sudden
~li~anges,the population would probably follow tlie growtli curve as discussed in the theory of
demograpllic transition. This curve is S - sllaped as sliowii in Figure 5.2 and is k~iownas 'Ylie
logistic cwve". According to this curve, as stated earlier. rate of growth of populatioii varies
froin time to time.

1, ps,it,it is the point of saturation

&.
&' -/C. i t i s p e p i n t of
~ n f l e xIon
t
I
I
The seglliellt AB on the logistic curve represents the early growth at an increasing rate ( i t .
geometric or expone~llialgrowth @ ;r p or a dt ). however. the rate of growth in early
(it P
stage itself is s~nallin co~~ipariso~l
to the inten~~ediatestage. Tlle final stage o r late growth.
depicted by the segnleut DE on the cunle. This filial growtl~llicreases at a decreasing r;lkr.c
first order curve @ oc (p, - p ) as the salivation value. p , is approached. The middle t~lnsitiol~
tit

portio~lof the curve BD follows nearly an arithmetic increase i.e.. @ = constant Tlie poinl
dt
of inflexion. ('sets the future trend of population growth

SAQ 1

i) According lo Mallllus. Ihc popululio~~ inurcascs iil .......................progrcssio~i

" ;uld food prod~~ctio~l
in ....................... PI-ogression.
ii! Pir\~c~lIive ~ ~naniage:lrld celibac) were sllggesled by M : ~ l l l ~ i i ~
checks v i Late
Ho\vc\,cr-.no\\. \\.c ha\,c lllorc elTccri\,c pr:\ c~lti\c c h c c k such as .,............ ... . .

*
iii) Histoly ;1nd statistics sllo\i, lint \vitl~I!le spread of education and culi11~11
ad\.:~ncc!~lcnt.pol)ulaIio~agrc~\vtli..... . ... ... . . . ... .... . ... . . (i~~crcascs
/ clecrc:~!ics!
:IS) Accolr!ing lo the 111cog.of Ucn~ogr:~llpilicTr;~~isitio~l.
Iltdi;~call bc pul iu . . ..
stagc of pop~ilntiol~
gro\\.tll. (earl) !~:~tcnucdiilic
/ final).

-- -
5.4 POPULATION DENSITY
Population densities i~ldicatedistribution of population. population density of a countq or ;I
region is defined as the average nunlber of people living per square km in the area of that
regionlcountry. It call be obtained by dividing the total-populationof t l ~ ecoulrtry with its i.ire;l
in square k m ,On the basis of density, an area is said be over1 1mde1-1optimum
populated. Density call be calculated on the basis of total area. amble area net cullivated are;,
or inhabited area. Sometimes. weigbted area on the basis of land use is also used. However i l l
our country. area lmder nayaypallclulyat is considered in estimating the population densities.
Table 5.1: Population Density and Population Growth in India
Population Population Decennial Annual
(in millions) Density Grr~wth Growth rate
1 persq. km

As the populat~o~lof our country is increasing every year. its population dellsit! IS also
increasing. The pop~rlationof India in 1971 was 548 l~lillionsand it increased to,
683.8nlilllons in 1981 and further to 843 ~nillion.in199 1 . Accordinglj. the popul;ltio~it l c ~ ~ c ~ ~ \
has also increased from 177 personlsq. km in 1971 to 216 persodsq. km. in 1981 and fi~rther
to 274 penon/sq. km i11 1991. The trend of increase in population density is well reflected in
Table 5.1.
lndia is :I vast countrj havi~lgvarying climate. relief and resources in different parts of the
comitrl\..and llence the population density varies fro111region to region. To carry tlus point. the
popnlat~ondensity of sollle of the states and I I I U O I ~territories based on 1991 census are given
in Table 5.2.
Table 5.2: ~o~,ulation
Distribution, Population Density and Growth Rate (1991 census)
States1
[Juion Territories
1 Pnpulfition
(in Lakhs)
/ Population Density
(Nos. per SQ. km)
Decennial 1
I growth (%)
Annual Growth
Ratc ("/n)
I

I .Tamil Nndu 1 559 1 429 1 15.39 1 1.43 I

I--
/
West Hellgal
Assanl
68 1
224
767
286
24.73
24.22
2.21
2.17

Alldaman aid
Nicobar lslalds
34 1 48.70 1 3.97
1
Fro111Table 5.2. it may be seen that population density of Kerala and West Bellgal is the
highest (749 ;~nd767 person per sq. kin. respectively) alllong all the states of Todia. Lowest
Popl~latio~~
Density is in An~nachalPradesh being oilly 10 people per sq. km.
The states like Mizoram, Nagaland and J&K have very low density of poplilatio~~ i l l the range
of 33-76 people perlsq. km. Rqiastlun and Madhya Pradesh have low density of population
( 129- 149 persodsq. kin). Andhra Pradesh, Kar~utaka,Gujnrar, Maharashtra. Orissa and
Assarn have medium density of population (20 1-242 persons/sq. kin). U.P. and Bihar bave .
high density of population (473-497 personslsq. km). Ainoilg the Union Territories. tlle
lkighest deilsity of population is in Delhi. next in Clundigarh and lowest in Alldaman &
Nicobar Islands.
During 1991 the average poplilatio~~ density of India was less in conlparisoh to some
coluitries like Japan (29 1 peoplelsq. km). West Germany (243 peoplelsq. km). But these
countries arei~idustriallyinore developed than India. Anlong the agriculture based counlries,
the population density of India is Iugh.
Popl~latio~l Densih vary widely witlun a town or city. Generally it ranges from 50 to 200
pcrsonslhectare in the sparsely-built up areas. In four to six-storied buildings with apartnleilts
In cities like Calcutta and Bombay. the popllatio~idensity inay be 500 to 750 perso~lsll~ectare.
111 closely built up residential areas like in old Dellu, the density of population has been
reporled to be as high as 2200 to 2700 persoils per hectare.
As stated earlier. the density of papulatiou bighligbts the population of the region or localitj
Densely populated areas reqliire special efforts tc, provide food. clothing and shelter to
people. Such areas require special attenti011 for proper amngemen[ to meet basic need of
education. health and rans sport at ion.
Tlle density of population does not show backwardness or advapcement or econornic
prosperity of the region. For csalr~pleconlpare U.S.A and Britain. U.S.A is a prosperous and
advanced country but it has very low population density of only 22. personstsq kin. contrary
to this Britain's population density is very lug11 229 peopletsq. km but it IS also an
econoinically prosperous and advanced county. Now coinpare Cluila w ~ t hJapan. China has i t
population of over 100 crores with density of population 80 persodsq. kin. whereas Japan l ~ i s
a population size of 12 crores with density of population 291 personstsq. km. but that do,es
iiot prove that Cllina is lllore eco~lo~nically
prosperous than Japan.

5.5 POPULATIOIV DISTRIBUTION

If you exa~niilethe pattern of distribution of world population. you will iioticc tllat manlund is
inassed in four inain regions of the earth.
i) ,Western and Central European coumtries specially Britain. France. Westeq
Xkmlany. Italy.
ii) In East-central part of North America i.e., Eastenl United States, and SwB-eastern

1
Camda.
iii) In tlle Indian s~~bcontiiients
coinprisiilg Pakistan India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
iv) In tlle fareast of Asia specially in eastern China. Korea, Indonesia Myanmar,
Japan and Taiwan
Outside these four illail1 areas of population concentration llla~ikiiidis inuch more tlunly
spread except some clusters of dense population for exan~plein Jawa. Egypt. Nigeria, around
Buenos Alres'tn Argentilk?. in south east Brazil and Califonua in U.S.A. I
It
In terms of populatioil. India is the second largest country in the world after China. India has
16% of tlle total world's population wit11 only 2.4% of world's total geographical area. The
distribution of population in various regionststates of I11d1a has been indicated in Table 5.2.

5.5.1 Factors Affecting Population Distribution

Mankind usually congregates where xk?tuml and other c~lnditi0~S illost easily offer a supply of
food or provide a means of earning a livelihood. The places, wllere the conditions are difficull
e.g., possibilities of securing food are limited and chance of earning a liviilg are restricted,
man is llot tempted to settle down there. 1
The factors (physical and otlvrs) influencing the distribution of population are given below : 1

Accessibility to a11area 111 rclation to nlearls of transport helps to determine whether or 1101
it is capable of being occupied. For example, U.P.. West Bengal, Maharashtm, Kerala are
llaving good ineans~ftransport and as such population density is lugh there. Conversely,
the population density is low in Arui~?cllalPradesh, Jamnlu and Kashnzir, Mizoram etc.
where t m p o r t facilities are not so I ~ I U C ~developed.
I Populatioil is dcnse near coastline as
sen transport facility is available there.
ii) Relief
High mountains 'and nigged terrain are not favourable for settlement due to difficulties in
develop~nentof transport facilities. unfavourable clin~ite,stony 'and eroded soils wlucli
place a limit on agriculture. For example, lugh 'and inaccessible areas llke Tibet have
relatively few inhabitants. Madhya Pradeslk Himaclml Pmdesh, Ja~luni~ and Kashrmr etc.
for this reason has low populatioil density biit the plain 'mas of U.P.. Bihar and West
Bengal are densely populated.
iii) Climate
Tlle lands of perpetual snow and ice are avoided by men. Cold and aridity repel huunan
settlenlent. Other extremes, like hot deserts are thldy populated uudess water is available.
Tropical and tenlpent; clinlate is fwo-ruble for human settle~ilentaid so the population i s
also dense in these areas. For tlus reason J & K and Rajasthan are tllinly popdated
compared to West Bengal. Mal~araslltraand Kerala where tlle cliilmte is temperate.
 i v ) Avail:~bility of Water
The presence adequate quantity of water is a basic factor affecting population distribution.
Men. anjnlals aiid plants cannot live long without water. Therefore in past. human
settlement have been mostly linuled to areas along the rivers e.g 111duscivilisation.
Similarly. places where nahld rainfall is adequate for agriculture production. the
populalion density is high e.g., U.P.. Bihar. West Bengal. and Kerala. Also population
density is increasing in areas where irrigation and water supply facilities have been
recently developed as in the areas from where canals are passing in Punjab and Raiasthan.
v) Soils
Soil fertility encounge dense settlelnents whereas barren land disconrage. Fertile alluv~al
soils of doab of Gangs and Ya~nunain U.P.. Bihar, and West Bengal are the exanlple in
. Ilus calegory where due to intensive agriculture. populatio~ldensity is rnore. Conversely.
Rajastllail and South-Central Plateall of India 'are tlli~llypopulated as their soils are uot

i vi)
fertile.
Vegetation
Dense forests are a lundrance to hu~runsettlerr~entsfor esample. rain forest of Airlazon
1- where people are not able to get adequate land for cultivation 811d other occupatiot~al
I activities. For tlsis reason some m a s of Assarn and Meghalaya are tlunly populated.
vii) Mineral Deposieb:
Cool fields and areas of other ~llineralwealth allracts people as the process of e?rploitatiois
of snch resources provide elnploy~nentin such areas. Ii~dustrialdevelopnlenl near such
area adds another favourable factor for increased population densities. For tlus reason.
some parls of Bihar, West Bellgal and Orissa are densely populaled.
viii) Other factors
There can be other reasons besides the pl~ysicalfactor discussed above, which i~fluer~ce
population dstribution e.g. employnleilt and trailling oppom~nitics.They are srll~unarised
below :
a) Centres of comLrce and trade annctspeople. For flus reason cities like Mllmbai.
Calcutta, Kanpur are thickly populated.

1
b) Capital of states and Countries attracts people as many govenunerlt offices and
commercial and industrial l~ousesdevelop there and people get good employment.
Therefore, capital cities Hydenbad. Dellu. Mumbai are tluckly populated.
c) Education Centres like AllJlabad and Varanasi also.attncts people and are therefore
they are co~nparativelytluckly populated.
d) Social factors sucl~as polyga~nyanlong Muslims. and early marriage in Hindus, etc.
nlay influence both distribution and density of populatjon in particular areas.
Wars have affected the size of population of some cor~ntriesas well as distributioo
between rmle aiid fernde for the fact that more nlales lost their lives in a war.
e) Migration of population affects greatly tl~epopulation distrib~~tion and density. For
exrmple, at the time of partition of India in 1947, where Wesl-Punjab people sllifted
to east-Punjab tl~erebyresulting ill increased population density of east-Pubjab.
Migration of population from the suburbs to the town and cities is taking place J 1 tl~e
time as more employment and trade avenues are available in tow11and cities
compared to villages, thereby increasing the population density in cities and towls.
5.5.2 Population Pistribution in Urban and Rural Areas
The urban and rural areas are generally differentiated by the type of residences, geograpllical
location, and size of population apart fro111occupation of workers. aid adrni~listrativestates
etc Rural or village population is mostly engaged in agnculture fanl~ii~g and other allled
agnc~ilturalact~vities.e.g. dairy fanuing. As per 1991 cellsus there are about 5.80.702
\llllages in India and average population of village is around 1200 persons as III 1996. Certal~l
v~llagesof population size of ulore tl~an5000 Imve been classified as rural and certain tow~ls
of less than 5000 populatiol~as urban as per 1991 census. probablv coi~sideringfactors other
Illan population. There is continuous migration of people from villages to urban
agglomerations for better ernploy merit opportunities. De~nograpl~ers and plaru~ersare
therefore kce~llyinterested in the study of qualitative distribution and redistribution of
pop~~latioi~ in village and towns for the purpose of pla~ulingof facilities and proper
development. It can be seen froill the Table 5.3 that u+dn population is regularly increasing
It was reported to be 18% of the total population in 196'1 which increased to 25.7% in 1991.
Table 5.3: Change in Urban Population of India 1951 to 1991

Year Urban Population an OO/ of Total

Table 5.4 gives the urban population in different classes of towndurban agglomerations. Yo11
may notice the trend that the numnber of t o w ~ as
~ swell as population in each ciass of town is
increasing.
Table 5.4: Growth in Urban Population and Number of Towns

Class 1971 I981

No.

1,00.000 &
above
I Towns
No.of
I--
I Populatic~n
(Millions)
NO.of
Towns

111

LIE than
5000
/1 214
i
1 61.7 /I 167
I
00

--- --
Total / 2311 1 78.2 1 2510 l(r7.X

The 11111nberof cities l ~ v i t ~Inore

g tlmn a 1n11lio11populatio~iwas just 5 dunng 195 1 wl~~cli
now stands at 23 as per 199 1 census. Such crtics in 1981 wel?: 12. Popul:~lro~l in Mumhiti :~ntl
Delhi is growing at alanlli~igrate. Table 5.5 g~vesthe population growth rare of so~uc
i1npoPia11tmetropolitan citres of our count13.
Table 5.5 : Population and Growth Rate of Metropolitan Cities b
 Population I'~CS*~II

I Pi;pi.~la:~o~i dcrsily of Kel;ria ;111dWesr Beugal is tile highest (;iround

................ per.;onskmi sq.) amolrgst nil the aaies of India. !.25(!. 550. :050i

i:~! I:ldi;r':i population is ............................. pcrce:lt of 111cworld pop~~i,;:inli

n-llile :!c.cupj i ~ l g................ ...pcr~21itof \!ol.id's total gcogmp11ic;ll:lre;t.
...I '1.1~~;urban popuh(ioti o r l~idiawas .................. pcrci.iit of tile IOU: popu1;llioil
11; 106 l . it lnc! iilcrcrised to .................... percenl 111 190 I .

5.6
- POIPCTLATION AND WATER SUPPLYSCHEME
Ttie planning and design of a water supply scheme require the data on area and population to
be served, the design period, the per capita rate of water needs, the nature and location of the
facilities to be provided, the water treatment facilities, service reservoir c,apacity and location.
and points of water supply intake and waste water disposal. the pumping flations.
A few projects with clearly defined possible developnlent may get completed in one phase.
However, optillisation may call for planning for a number of phases relating to plant
capacity. degree of treatment of water to be provided, determining the capacitie's of sub
systems, capital cost require and interest charges. period of repayment of loan, water tax. and
wilter rates etc.
The distribution layout and the sources of supply and their development ~netliodsare
impoitai~tparalneters in locating different units for their optiinal and econoinic utilisation
taltii~ginto account the factors like topogmpliy, soil conditions etc. In this unit we are l i m i ~ n g
ourselves to some preliminary concepts in deteniiiung capacities of water supply schemes
where population is the key factor. However, you will find detailed discussion on design ?nd
operational aspects of a water supply scheme in the course titled Pollution and Water Supply.

5.6.1 Future Population

As you know. the tern1 ~opulation"indicates the total number of hurnan beings res~dingin a
$articular area at a particular time. The "present population" is obtained by refeemug lo
statistical or census records prepared by the local body. However, as you know t l ~ t
popr~lationis.a changing phenomena, the water supply projects are designed not only to meet
the require~nentsof present population but also of projected 'Yuture population". The
techniques of estimating future population are described later in this unit.

5.6.2 Design Period

Constniction of a water supply scheme involves huge expenditure made in structures such as
damns. reservoirs, treatment works, penstock pipes. etc These units cannot be replaced or
~ncreasedin their capacity easily and conveniently. Therefore. to avoid future coniplicat~ons
111 espaildiilg their capacities, the various components of water supply schemes are purposely
made larger so as to satisfy the co~tunurutyneeds for a reasonable number of years to come.
Thns. the fuhrre period or the number sf years for which a provision is made in design of
various colilpollents of a water supply scheme is known as design period.
The design period should neither be too long nor it should be too short. The design period is
influenced by the following coilsiderations :
i) The design period shill not esceed the 'lnseful life" sf the colnponent stnlchlres i.e..
the period in wluch they are likely to become unsafe and obsolete so tlmt likely
wastef~dexpenditure is avoided .
Walter Demand A lugher valrle of desig~lperiod is chosen in case future expansion is likely to bc
ii)
difficult, say in renlote areas.

iii) Anticipated rate of population growth. For example if rate of increase of' populatio~~
is less. a lugher figure of design period n ~ be
~ chosen
y provided structural life
pennits to do so.
iv) Availability of funds. For exanlple if funds are not available, one has to keep a
sn~allerdesign period.
V) Wllere expensive tunnels and large aqueducts involving large capital outlay for
duplication, tlle design period n ~ a ybe cl~osenlonger becal~sesuch stnlctures are
nonl~lllydesigned for tlxir ultimate requirements.
Normally, water supply pro.jects may be designed to meet the requirements over a tlurty year
period from tlleir expected date of colnpletio~iof the project. Tlus thirty vear period may
llowever be modified in regard to specific colnponents of the pro.iect.
The table 5.6 provides guiding values of design period of project conlpollellts
Table 5.6 : Design Periotl of Some Components of Water Suoply Schcn~es
I I I
-- 1
Serial Item Special Chara~cteristics ~dgnPeriotl
No.
--
Storage dslnls It is an evpe~isiveco~npouent.Capac~ly 50 years
exparision at a later stage is costlv did
diificult.
-
1 2 1 Infiltration works
Raw water conveying
I Requirement may change rapidly therefore
I 30 years

30 years
I
illains, lateral aird desig~ledfor full developmelit
secondary innins

141 Water distribution svstetn 1)esigned for maxunutn permissible penod

if low interest rates prevail.
30 years

I S / Water Treatl~ent~lllits May be designed for a period less than the

design period as they are eilsv to replace.
15 years
I
I 1 Service Reservoirs
(overliacl or ~r~~dnprnmd)
1
1
- IS years

5.7 POPULATION FORECASTING

Tlie present population of a town or city call be best determined by conducting an official
e~lunleration-calledcensus. The Govenullent of every country generally cany out thesc
official suneys at an interval of 10 years. Sometimes. intermediate snrveys are conducted b)
State Govertunents and Local Bodies. All nseflrl data available fron~census department
sllould. therefore be collected by planners of water supply scliemes. Tlus data is tl~enused 111
forecasting expected 'Tuture population" of the city at the end of the design period.
Future population is estimated keeping in niind the maximum possible factors gover~lil~g ll~e
future growth and development of the city. These could be industrial, commercial. social ;111d
administrative growth. special factors callsing sudden influx or imnligntion of population.
A judgement based on these factors would help in selecting tlie most suitable n~etliodol'
estimating the probable trend of popdlation growtl~in the area under cotaideration.
Tliere are five most discussed methods of extmpolating past populiltion curve of place to
estimate future population. These methods are based on followi~lgassumptions :
i) uniform growtl~rate in nlunbers,
ii) onifonn percentage growtl~mte,
iii) decreasing growth rate,
iv) graplucd extension. and
v) colnparison wit11 growth in population of other cities.
 However. it nlay be remembered tlut sudden cllange in popr~latio~l trend may result due to Population P r r u s ~ ~ r ~ .
war. industrial advancements. new scientific discoveries. new attitudes in family size etc.
Therefore, by known methods of forecasting, ~rlodellingsr~chadditional factors is difficult.
t
5.7.1 Demographic Method
As discussed in Section 5.2. the population change can occur in three ways, namely,
i) by births (population gain)
ii) by deaths (poprrlation loss) or
iii) migration (population loss or gain depending on outward or inward mnovement).
Migration ailfects the nu~rlberof birth and deaths in the area. and so, projection of net
m~grationare prepared before projection for tlaturd increase. However, the act of annexing of
t
an ; m a nlay be considered a special form of migration. Population forecasts are frequently
obtained by preparing and su~nmingup of separate but related projections of "natural
increases" and of "net migratio 11".

b
The net effect of births and deaths on population change is ternled as "natural increase" (or
population decrease, if death exceeds birth).
Tllus, demographic method takes into account the prevailing and anticipated births rates and
death rates of the region or city for the period under consideration. The method also takes into
account estimate or projection of the emigration from and iminigration to the city, and
area-wise growth of the city. Considering all these factors, arithmetic balancing is done to
arrive at the Future Population. It can be expressed as

where. p, and pt refer to the size of population at the beginning and end of a time period, and
B, D, I and E to refer to the number of births, deaths, iminigration and emigration.
respectively during the period under consideration.

5.6.2 Arithmetic Progression Method

In tlus method, a constant increment of growth in population numbers is added periodically.
This method is of limited application ~nostlyused to large and established towns where future
growlh has been controlled.
Mathematically for arithmetic progressiott, we can write

Average arithmetic growth rate of population = = constant = say, k

dt

or, d p = k. dt

PI, t2

or. J d p = k J dt

Pt2 = Pt, + k (t2 - tl) ...(5.9)

Here pt2 and ?+, represent the population at tiirle t2 and tl, respectively. The time period is
usually reckoued in decades. k is the rate of increase of population per unit time (decade),
thus (t2 - t l ) = no. of decades.
The Eqn. (5.9) can be rewritten as

where.
Pn = population after n decades.
PO = popr~lationat the beginning.
n = number of decades. and
 .k = average pol>ulatlongrowth rate (in numbers) per decade i.e.. avenge incre;lsc ol
population per decade,

wliere. 171 is no. of decades for wliicli past data is available and percenlagc growth rate
in eacli decade k,. k l .k2. kg .....k,,, is co~iip~ited
as

Increase in populalionin njh decade --

kt, = x 100 ...(5 . I I)
Original populationat tlie beginningof m'" decade

5.7.3 Geometric Progression Method

The method of Geometric Progression is applicable to the cities with unlinlited scope for
futilre expansiot~and wliere a constant rate of growtli is anticipated.
The basic difference between aritlunetic and geonietric progressioli metbod of popi~lat~on
forecasting is that. wliereas in Aritluiietic riietliod no colnpollilding is done. in Geometric
method colilpounding is done every decade.
In Geornetnc Progression method. a constant val~reof percentage growth rate per decade ( k )
analogous to the rate of collipol~ndil~g
interest per annum.
Thus. population after one decade call be given by

siinilarlv. population after n decades

where. p, refers to initial population i.e., at the end of last known c:ensus
Average percentage growth rate per decade k to be used in the above Eqn. (5.12) is conlputed
from tlie percentage growtli rate of eacli decade. Tlie value of k can be calculated as
k = f i t 6 k2 . k3 ........... k , , ..,(S.I

5.7.4 Incremental Increase Method

Tliis rnetliod is anotlier case of arithmetic progression wit11 sollie rnodificatiorls. Increnlental
increase rnethod is adopted for cities wllicli are likely to grow progressively at illcreasing or
decreasing rate rather tlnn a cotistarit rate. According to this 1iietl:od populatioii after n
decades call be given by

where, Fa11d.iare tlie average increase of poplllation per decade and average incremental
increase. respectively. The otlier notations carry their usual nlealling and and- are given b\ x
XI +X2+ ....... + .... + ....... +X,
i = Average increase of population per decade =
fit
.and
- .y1 +y2 + ..... + ..... +.v,,,
v = Average of increillental increase =
vn
where.
X I . x2. x 3 , ....... x,, are increase in eacli decade,
vl.y z . y3, ....... .v,,, are incremental increase in each decade.
Example 5.3
As per the census records for the years 1911 to 197 1, the population of a towii is give11
below in tlie table. Assul~liiigtlnt the scl~erneof water supply was to co~~i~neiice
in
 1996, it is required to estimate t l ~ epopulation 30 years thence i.e.. i11 2006 and also tlie
intermediate population after 15 years siuce conuneucelnent i.e.. in 199 1.

Year Popuhtinn

1911 40,185
1921 44,522
1931 00.305
1941 75,6 14
1951 98,886
1961 124,230
1971 158,XOO

Solution
Let us try to get the solutions using all tlie three inetl~odsto wluch you have been
illtroduced by now. The ii~cren~el~tal population. and illcrease in increrilental
populal.ion are suliilned up in table below :

Year Pnpdation Increment Incremental

(4 Lncrease (y)

1911 40,185

p:!~
1921 44,522 4,337
1931 60,395 15,873 + 11,536
75,614 15,219> - 654
98,880 23,272 + 8,053
124,230 25,344 + 2,072
1971 158,800 34,570 + '1.22h

.From the above table, the fillowillg parameters call be worked out iIs
Total increase in population = 118.615
Total of incremental increase1 decrease = 30.233
1
Avenge incremental v a l ~ ~ e decade (7)
per =-x 118615 = 19,769
6

Avenge incremental increase per decade 6) = -51 x 30.233 = 6.047

1 1) By Arithmetic Progression Method

Increase in population form 19 11 to 1971. i.e. in 6 decades

Now, using Eqn. (5.10) i.e.. P, = Po + k n we can work out tlie expected
d population in

.. Population in 199 1 = 158.800 + 13,769 x 2 = 198.338

and P o p h t i o n in 2006 = 158.800 + 19.769 x 3.5 = 227.992
2) By Geometrical Progression Method
Rate of growth per decade

between 19 11 and 1921

15,873
between 1921 to 1931 kZ = -= 0.356
44,522
-
15.219
k- - -= 0.252
between 193 1 to 1941
'
- 60,395
23 272
between 194 1 to 1951 k4 = -= 0.308
75,614
 between 1951 to 1961 ks- = -
25
98.886 '
344 - 0.256

between 1961 and 1971 k6 = -

34'570 -- 0.278
124,230
- -- - ---- --
Geometric Mean = 6 6 1 0 8 0.356
~ x 0,252 x 0.308 x 0.250 x 0.278
or k = 0.24426
Ass~uningthat the future population will grow in geolnelric progressioils as 111 llle
past during 1911 to 1971. Now using Eqn. (5.12) i.e., f J , = F J , (1 + k)". We gcc
.. Population in lPOl = 158.800(1 + 0.244261~ = 245.85 1
Pop~llationin 2006 = 158,800 (I +0.24426)".' = 341.224

3) By Incremental Lncresse Method

n(n+l) -
Now applying Eqn. (5.14) i.e., p, = P,, +n 2 +- 2 .
v

5.7.5 Graphical Projection Method

In this method from the available data, a graph is plotted between time and popdation. either
on aritlunetic paper or on a semi-log paper . Tlus time-popolation curve is then snloothly
extended upto the desired year for projecting the fuhlre population. The line of best fit I I M ~
also by the nletllod of least squares. If the graph is plotted on senu-log paper with time on
aritlunetic scale and population on log-scale, the time population curve fornls a straight liilc

20

TIME ( Y E A R S )

Figure 5.3: C4raplliml Pmjertion of Population OII a Simple Cirnph Paper

Plotting on si~nplegraph paper (see Figure 5.3) gives approximate results as the exten$iol~rol
curve is done by the judgement and sk~llof the designer. The data given in Exainple 5.3 Are ,
plotted in Figure 5.3 and the projected population in the years 1991 and 2006 from thiafigurc
can be approximately read as
FJ1991 = 225,400
 If plotting is done on a semi-log graph sheet as shown in Figure 5.4, the graph is a straight
/ line. The projected populations for the desired ye& fmm the Figure 5.4. can be read as
P1991= 260.000 P2006 = 370.000

Figure 5.4 :Seml-loz Plot for Jbtin~ationof Future Population

5.6.6 Graphical Comparison Method

The governing principle for graphical comp'arison method is that the cities having similx
con&tions and cltuacteristics (e.g., migration, develop~nentactivities. etc.) are nlore likely to
grow in the similar fashion. Therefore, to estimate the population of a relatively new cih,
population-tiole curve of cities luving conditions and characteristics similar to the city wllose
future population is to be estimated, are prepared or obtained. Based oil a comparison of
popolation-time curve for co~nparablecities. tlie population-tirue curve of the city under
consideratio~lis extended from tl~epoint of lag available data upto the desirable future datc
The method is esplained witli the help of an example in the Figure 5.3

2 $06-
z
3 90-

-= eo-

I
I
t

I I I I J - I r 1 F a f CltY-A)

TIME ( Y E A R S )

- F i p r e 5.5: Population Forecast by O~mpl~lcal

C:omparlson Method
For example. let the population data of a relatively new city X is given for four decades 1040.
1950. 1960 iind 1970; and its present population llas reached say 50,000 in the last census of
the year 1970. It is required to estimate its population after 50 years from the last census i.e..
at the end of the year 2020.
First of all. the population-time curve of the city X is plotted upto the latest census year i.e,.
1970. Then from the available population data of cities wiuch l ~ the d sa~nepopulatio~ias that
of the city under coilsideration (i.e.. 50.000) atleast 50 years before, and also lmving similar
chanctelistics ( growth rate, etc.): a 111ostappropriate city. say city A, is selected and its
popaletion-time curve is plotted. Let it be know11tlut the city A reached the populatio~lfigure
of 50,000 in the year 1910. Now, the population-time curve of city X is extended by
superimposing the population-time curve of city A from the year 19 10 and onwards starting
from point, P(1971. 50000) and coinciding with abscissa and ordinate of city A (1910.
50000). Thus. the population of city X will be the same as was the population of city A i11
1960. However. if there are inore than one such cities llaving similar characteristics as of city
X, the projected population is allowed to be influenced by other s11ch siinilar cities (say. citics
A. B. C. D) by superi~nposing/plolting their population-time curves beyond the poi~lt'-T and
carefully exteildiilg the curve for city X between the curves for cities A, B."C and D upto [lie
year 2020.

5.7.7 Logistic Method

The logistic method is suitable for regions where the rate of increase or decreasc of
population with time. and also the population growth is likely to reach an ultinlate satltratio~i
li~nitbecause of special local factors The growth of a city which follows a logistic curve, ~ v i l l
plot as a straight line on the aritlulleric paper. witli time intervals plotted against vopulalio~iiu
percentage of saturation.

5.7.8 Master Plan or Zoning Method

The prediction of the future popdation of a city at any given time during the period of design
can be made using ally of tl~eappropriate inetl~odsstlitable to each individual case. However
sometimes. the density and distribution of such populalio~~ willlin constituent areas, or zones
of the city are to be made with a discenling judgen~enton the relative probabilities of
expansio~~ witlun eacli zone. Tlus has to be based upon llle existing and conteinplated town
plaruung regulations, inaster plans and also according to the rurure of develop~ne~~t of wllolc
region.
Wherever master plans prepared by tow11 plaiuli~lgauthorities are available. the des~gii
populations should be based 011 the figures given by sucll authorities For example. if tlierc
are 10,000 plots in a zone. then the total population of such zone on its complete developme111
call be easily worked out to be 5 x 10,000 = 50.000 for single story houses ((a15 persons p c ~
dwelling unit). However. in case of 10,000 plots witli 3 storled houses may lmve a poplrlat~oli
of 1 .15.000 ( ( ~ 1 ) 5. 4, 2.5 persons per dwelling unit on ground floor, first floor. ;ind second
floor. respectively) o ~full i developnle~ltof the area.

SAQ 3
aj Dcfliie "Des~gn
pent;a" lor ;I \later suppl) scllcmc
b) Wl~aldo you 11ic;ul b! filhlre population'!

5.8 POPULATION PROBLEMS

As per the esti~intesmade in 18th century. tlie world's population wluch was especred to bc
-
doubled every 150 years (approximately) with an annual growth rate of 0.4 0.5 percent. is
now expected to be doubled jlist in a span of about 39 years (as per the estimates nladc in
1980) witli annual growth rate of 1.8 percent . Tlie Su~n~nary Report of the 1978 Assessnleiit
g i v y by the Depart~nentof International Econo~nicand Social Affairs of United Natio~~s
-
reflecls tllat during 1995 2000, the growth rate in population of developing ~lationse.g .
India. ins to be much lugher tllan the growth rate of developed nations which will have ;t
growth rate just a little over 0 50 percent per almum. Such reflection itself is a serious 1hre;11
to the developnlent efforts of underdeveloped and developing nations wluch are likely to l~;l\c
iiiore tllan 1.5 percent growth per annuln (i.e.. about 3 times the@rowth in developed
nations). Thus. providing qualitative and quantitative basics such as-food. education
employment. healtli facilities. shelter, water and power suipply etc. itself is going to be a
g~gantictask. The first projection of ~ndependentIndia made by R. A, Gopalswamy, R ~ ~ I S I ~ ~ I I
General of India (1951) estimated a popdation of about 535 nill lion for the year lOR1. T h ~ s
was foolid to be far below the actual enr~~ttented population of 684 million.
 India isthe second largest country of the world next to Clina as regards to the size of its
population. India's population constitutes 16% of the total world's population (5500 millions
in 1991) with only 2.4% of World's geographical area. Our GDP per capita was just about
US$275 in comparison to Japan with US$29,497(source: The State of World Population
1995 UNFPA, United Nations Population Fund ).
Our population which was 361 million in 1951 has reached 846 million in 1991 and is
expected to exceed 1000 million by the year 2001. According to official projectio~ls,the
annual exponential growth rate of population has been 2.2% during 1971-81 and 2.14%
dunng 1981-91. As stated above, this growth rate is very high compared to other developed
countries of the world. Every year around 17 illillion people are added to our country's
population wllich is constantly growing at faster rate t l m the increase in our econoinic
resources. These statistics forecast very gloomy picture of our economy.
The statistical data indicate that since 1950s, the country has experienced a population
explosion or it is the intermediate stage of Demographic Transition in India. It will be orlly
dlrritlg third (final) stage of Demographic Transition, when rate of population growth
becomes very low and stable. Such situation is likely to be reached by the year 2096.
Population explosion is a situation where the population grows at a faster rate at which the
existing resources of a country are not able to keep the pace to fulfil the needs of their people.
Tliis state of population explosion is responsible for our unhealthy, inefficient, illiterate.
untrained and unskilled population/labour force. Our insufficient housing, lteealtb and
samtation facilities, illiteracy, etc, are some of the the results of the population explosio~i.
Besides these insufficiencies, the existence of many problems such as food shortage, poverty.
tin-employment and low standard of living also prove that India is facing the problem of
Population Explosion.

5.8.1 Causes of Population Explosion

In India. the main cause of population explosion is the "High Birth Rate" added with
declining death rate and increased life expectancy due to adva~~cement in inedical sciences
coupled with improved inedical and health care facilities. Further, infant inortality has come
down due to trained nurses and better medical facilities. Due to the spread of education, both
men and women take care of their health, which is holding the decrease the death rate.
The following factors can be said to be responsible for high birth rate in India.
1) Universal Marriage
! Marriage is almost universal among all sections of our tmdition. It is coilsidered to be a
religious sacred duty. Further, the people who do not get cluld after their rnarriage (let it
be because of their own will) are not treated with respect and thus forcing them to have
child.
2) Early Marriage
Early marriage is prevalent in hdib. The female age at marriage which was 13 years
during 1901-11 increased to about 18.4 years in 1971-81. Yet, according to survey of
1992-93, the percentage of women who got manied in the age group of 15 - 19 year was as
high as 34.3% in rural areas and 15.2 % in urban areas. By reaching the age of 29.
95 percent of women were married. Since the cllances of wonien getling child are the
$
highest in the early years of the reproductive period (15 - 44 years) therefore, the birth rate
is high. Further, the age specific fertility rate (ASFR) for inarried woinen in the age groups
-
of 15 -19,20-24 and 25 29 is also very high.
3) Hot Climate
Iiuiia is a tropical country where girl's reach puberty at an early age resulting in longer
reproductive period.
4) Birth Control Measures are Less Effective
Birth conitrol measures so far adopted have been partially effective in India. The 1991
census indicates that the effective couple protection mte could reach lipto 44.1 per cent
only and 49 percent of manied women in the age group of 13 - 49 were not using ;uly
contraceptive method.
5) Poverty
In 11ldia 26% of the population lives below poverty line. The weaker sections of populatio~l
add inore to the population, so that heir children can help them in earnii~glivelihood.
11 icter Demand 6) Illiteracy
People are uneducated. According to National Fanily Health Survey (NFHS), 1992-93.
57 percent females in the age group 6 and above are illiterate. They do not understand thc
clnrtn of a sinall fanlily. Further, they do not have actequate knowledge about
method of birth cot~trol.Tlus ignomce leads to increase in population. Many illiterates
coilsider l ~ v i n gchildren as a God's gift and are opposed to the idea of interfering with th~s
natural process. Further. it may be noted tlmt the su~vcyof 1992-93 reveals that tlld tot;ll
fertility rate (TFR) of illiterate woinen is as lug11as 1.0in coinl~arisonto a TFR of 2.2
children in woinen who had atleast high scllool education. It was also found tl~afwomen 111
-
age group 45 49 gave birth to 5.1 children per wonlan.
7) Lack of Brahmacharya and Celihacy
111the older days, people were knowing the importance of Brahnlacharya Tluls there was
not much increase of populat~on.But now, tlus plulosopl~yno longer finds followers.
8) Conservations
People in India are consen.ative and ortl~odox.They think cluldren to be the gift of God
and tlat notlung can prevent their birth. Soirle times religion, social taboo also aggravate
the problem.
9) LRck of Recreational Facilities
There is lack of recreatioinl facilities. so ~rujorityof people sirnply enjoy life and get
pleasure being with their spouses. Tllis too adds to birth rates.

5.8.2 Measures for Population Control

The population proble~ncan be solved by reducing tlle rate of population growth. It can be
acllieved by two methods, namely. a) by e~nrgration.and b) by reducing the difference
between Birth and Deatll Rates.
a) By Emigration
Popl~lationpressure nlay be relieved to some extent by emlgmtion. In the past, large
t~u~nberof people did migrate from over-populated countries1 regions. Some econoInrsts
suggest tlmt some of the people of India sho111dstcartliving in countries like Australia
where population I S less in comp(msonto natural resources of the country. In this way.
population problein in India nay be solved to sonle extent and the countnes wluch sofSer
fmln lack of adequate inanpower can be benefited.
b) By reducing the difference between Birth Rate and Death Rate
Afler independence due to increased medical facilities and health education the Death
Rate lus decreased. but the Birth Rate llas not decreased to tlat exten&.TJerefo~+e.Nali~nl
Growth Rale is rising and pop~~latioil is increasing day by day (see Table 5.7% Certmntj.
we &an not tlliilk of increasing death mte which would be higllly inllnoral and hational
approach. Tl~erefore.the only option lefl is to bring down the birth rate.
Table 5.7: Estim;~ttedBirth Rates, Death Rates and Natural Growth Ri~tesof
India (1951 - 2006)

Birth Rate Death Rate Natural Growth

per thousand per thousand Rate
per thousand
 As we know that the remedy lies in controlling, e.g, reducing the birtli rates. The following
measures may be be adopted to aclueve tlus goal:
i) Late Marriage
You may recall tlx~tthe ASFR gets reduced for the females wlio gets married after
attaining the age of 30 years. It will also lead to better understanding between two inahm
persons who would know what is right or wrong for their welfare.
ii) Education
You inay recall the great statement on Education given by otu former prime minister
Late (Mrs.) Indira Gandhi, which we at IGNOU are also printing on inner side of cover
page on each of the self instructional printed inaterials (Blocks). We quote 'Education is a
liberating force, and in our age it is also a democratising force, cutting across t l barriers
~
of caste and class, smoothing out inequalities imposed by birtli aid other circumstances."
Tlie plmse 'liberating force' has a very wide connotation and in real sense we call say that
education liberates us from barriers of caste. creed. xeligioii and so on. Therefore,
expanded educational facilities especially for females to understand the 'advantage of small
family norms should be encouraged. This inay be substantiated by the fact of reduced TFR
in literate women.
iii) High Standard of Living
Tl~edesire for l@h standard of living can inculcate proinotion of small family concept
where people will have to make a choice between a Baby and Car.
tv) Self Control
Self control or Brahmacharya was in practice in ancient India. Tlus is also one of the
methods of controlling population.
V) Family Planning
In India. the above mentioned measures have not been much successful. Therefore.
artificial and scientific methods of birtli control shodd be adopted.
vi) Abortion
Abortion is also one of the ittetliods of Birth control. ~ r e abortioii
e facilities should be
extended by Government in rural as well as uban areas. The abortion has almdy been
legalised by passing of Medical Termination of Pregnancy (MTP) Act wluch was made
effective oil 1 April, 1972. Under this Act a pregnant women of 18 years age can get her
pregnancy terminated.

5.8.3 Population Policy of India

In the year 1932, All India Women's Conference at Luckiiow passed a resolution that "men
and woinen should be instructed in methods of birth control in recognised clinics". Later in
1949. Family Planning Association was formed in Bombay. The Government of India. since
the begiiuung of the First five year plan in 1951 is supporting tlie family planning movement.
By the year 1995, Government has opened 2,377 Community Health Centres (CHCs).
22,156 Primary Heath Centres (PHCs) and 131,900 Sub-centres with the objectives of
providing better heath care to child and mothers and to promote small family concept in
masses. Tlie Governmeitt is educating people through audio1video (All Iiidia Radio aiid
Doordarshan) by putting advertising capsules, nlaking personal contacts and aiding voluntary
organisations.,The ultimate goal of family welfare programme has been the famous words
Hum do, Hamare d o 3 . -We ~ two, ours two) which in demograpllic term means to bring
down t l ~ eNRR to unity.
The National Population Policy of India announced by Dr. Karait Singli on 26 April 1976
stated that India with 2.4 percent of world's land has about 15 percent of world's populatioii
comprising of more thG600 million people. We are producing one Australia every year
y h c h is hvo and half tiii~esthe size of India. Therefore, to remove poverty, the problein of
population is to be treated as a top national priority and commitment. According to tlus
policy, the expected growth rate of population was to be brought down to 1.4 percent by the
year 1984. The marriage age was decided to be raised to 18 and 2 1 years for girls and boys,
respectively. It was also recognised in tlie policy that increase in literacy of women leads to
drop in fertility rate. Union Government einployees were expected to adopt small family '
norm.
The Population Policy of sixth plan (1980-85) envisaged to bring down the NRR to mlily by
2001 which was existing at 1.67. The average size of family was expected to be comprisi~~g ol
2.3 children which was 4.2 children at that time. Further, a drop in birth rate to 21 was lo bc
achieved. According to tliis policy tlie populatioil was to be stabilised to 1200'inillion by 2050
The latest revisions in the policy aims at aclueving NRR of unity by 20 16. However. tlus 1s
not likely to be achieved. ~ c c o r d i nto~the estimates of VIIIth Plan docunient, the projec~cd
Birth Rate for 2006 is 23.0 and Death Rate is 7.8 per tllousand which is to be further broagl~l
down to a Birth Rate of 20.9 and Death Rate of 7.1 per tl~ousand. Tlus will bnilg down the
fertility rate to 120.9 per 1000 named women. Average life e.xpectancy froin birth 1s to re;~cll
65.8 ;ears by 2006. By the year 2011. the our population will be allout 1164.2 n11llio11
In order to achieve the above targets, education with regard to Population Control is be111g
give11 ligh priority in schools, colleges and rural areas for the success of famlly plaiullr~g
scheme.

SAQ 4
a) What are the main causcs for pop~~lalion
erplosioll'!
b! State the consequences of-over poprllatioll
C) I..ist i ~ t l ~t ah ~e tmcasures to reduce bi~tlirntc in our countn.
. d Fill in tlie blanlts :
i) 'The gopulntion nT India accordi~lgto 1 !)!I 1 census \\.;as ........................ crores
~ci8.5 84.0 'j.T.4)

1 ) inili:~!c the . . . . . i::i'gcsi c;l:t~i:~!i!t the yv.orlt.i in terms of [is pnp~rlati:>~t

iscL;oild tjlitti f-?lt]ij
iiil After lndependc~!cz.tipi grp betuccrl Birili K:ne and i)e:ilh i i n l c \ \ ; I < >been
.......... in 111diii. (incscnsiug / decreasinq!

! K,lp~cll\gsoi~!!it: po!>r~lal~oit
o i Incl~;~
Iha\ been rzspc)~l\~bltt
lo: 11
cco~;om~c cl2~clop~llcnt(retardlng .' uc'cc1cial:~~gi

SUMMARY
Demographic data is of lnuch relevance to the people concerned with econoinic growth.
national plamning and policy decision making in tlle sectors of agriculture. iiifrastmcture.
drinking water slipply scliemes etc. India is supporting about 16 percent of worldrs populatio~l
where population has been growing rapidly. Since 1950s, the country is experiencing the slate
of "population explosion" thereby populatioil is growing at a llll~cllfaster rate than the
existing resources of a country. At the beginning of 1999, we were inore than 990 million
people. Tlus excessive population has been responsible for retarded growth of our country by
exerting excessive pressure on i~lfrastructurefacilities like transportation, coinmu~lication.
housing, health, sanitation, schooling. education, water and power sl~pplyetc. Therefore,
reasonable estimates of population are made before planning for any scheme.
Amongst the different theories of population Malthusian Tlieory is still relevant to India and
other developing countries Accordiilg to Maltlius theow, population increases very rapidly III
Geometric Progression wlile food supply increases at much slower rate in Arithmetic
Progressioii causing food shortage wlich in tun1 call cause famine, hunger. diseases. war ctc
Tllese are terined as called positlve cllecks and late marriage and celibacy etc. are tenned as
preventive checks.
According to theory of demographic trailsition the population does not always grow at f;isc
rate and rate of growth of population varies froin time to time. It follows a logistic curve
(S-curve) which indicates tlrat initially population increi~sesvery slowly, then comparatively
rapidly and finally becomes either statiomiy or declines.
In fortnulating water supply schenle for a city or region study of growth of populatioil and
estimation of future population is of great importance because the sclleines are des~gnedto
satisfy the community needs for a ilrlinber of years to cotne (called design period) The
lnethods of population forecasting are based on assulnptions like. uniform growth rate in
numbers. uniform percentage growth rate. decreasing growth rate. graplucal extension, and
coll~yarisollwith growth in population of other cities. Depending upon suitability, future
population is estimated by either Dernograplic Method, Aritlmetic Progression Method.
Geometric Progression Method, Increineiltal Increase Method, or Graphical Projection, etc.
Population growth of India is very Iugh and it is expected that we may reach the stage of zero
population growth by the year 2076. Our Governlent has taken several steps to control the
birth rate. These include establislunent of PHCs, CHCs, family planning and Ilealth centres in
niml areas as well.

5.10 KEY WORDS

Population Density : Average number of persons living per square kilometre.
Population Growth : The change% size of the population between two dates.
Population Growth Rate : Generally expressed as percentage change in population in a
particular period.
Decadal or Decennial : Percentage change in popillation in 10 years period.
Growth Rate
Arithmetic Annual : It is sinlple growth rate per alulun1 and rnay be obtained by
Growth Rate dividing decennial growth rate by 10.
Annual : It is the growth rate per axulum in population obtained on the
Growth Rate basis of cornpounding rate of increase every year.
Natural Growth Rate : Birth Rate per thousand persons lniilus Death Rate per
tl~ousandpersons.
Population Explosion : It is a situation where the population grows at a much faster
rate than the existing resources of a country which can not
keep a pace with the needs of a people. Generally, annual
growth rate in such situation is more than 1.5 percent.
Design Period of a Water : It is the number of years from the expected date of
Supply Scheme commellce~nentof operation of a water-supply sclleme for
which a provision is required to be made in design of
various components of water supply scheme so that the
capacities are large enough to satisfy community needs for a
reasonable number of years to come.

5.11 ANSWERS TO SAQS .

I) a) According to Malthusian Theory
i) Population increases very mpidly by Geometric proportion (i.e. increases by
multiplication like 1, 2,4. 8 . . . ), and
ii) Food supply in a country increases at a mnch slower rate in Arithmetic
proportion (i.e, increases by addition like 1,2.3,4, . . . ),
iii) As a result difference between the rate of growth of population and rate of
growth of food supply food shortage occurs sooner or later,
iv) In tllis stage of over-population and shortage of food grave problerns 'arise like
famine, disease, hunger, war etc. (called positive checks) in wluch lot of
population is reduced and baiance restored.
v) For escaping positive checks he suggested to exercise control over the growth
of population by preventive checks viz late inarriage and celibacy.
b) Optirnum Populations -It is the population just sufficient to get the maxi~num
output (i.e. inaximum per capita income) with the capital techntques, and nahlIXl
resources aviulable in a couiltryat the time under consideration.
c) i) geometric. aritlune!ic,
ii) of birth control. ' i
artificial and scientific ~nell~ods
 iii) decreases,
iv) intermediate stage.
2) a ) . i) 274
ii) 750
iii) 16, 2.4
v) 8,257
b) Factors influenciiig population distribution are i) Accessibility, ii) Relief.
iii) Climate, iv) Availability of water, v) Soils, vi) Vegetation. vii) Mineral weallh.
and viii) Other factors such as centre of Commerce, Capitals. Migration etc.
3) a) Coinponents of water supply schemes are purposely designed for bgher capacllles
than tlut of the expected demand at the time of design and constructioti of tlie
project so as to satisfy the coinmunity needs for a reasonable number of years to
come. This future period or number of years from the date from wllich the sclremc
is likely to become operational and for which provisions are already inade IJI desig~t
and hence to avoid future complications in expanding capacities of such uilits
(sub-systems ) or their replacement, is known as "Design Period".
b) Present population can be easily known througli the census ~ c o r d sHowever,
. watt1
supply projects or other long term planning are to be tnade keeping in mind the
needs of not only the preseiit population but also t l t ~ e of
d the population tlnl
will grow after a certain numbers of years for which provisions are to be made in
designing the components of the scheme. This projected population is callecl at of
future date is known as future population.
c) Future population can be predicted by any of the following methods depending
upon each individual case:
i) Demograpllical Method.
ii) Arithmetic Progression Metliod,
iii) Geometric Progression Method,
iv) Incrementd increase Method,
v) , Graphid Prqjection Method,
vi) Graphical Comparison Method,
vii) Logistic Method.
viii) Master Plan or Zoning Method.

4) a) Tlie ~ r ~ ~cause
j o r of population explosion of our country is the hgli birtli iate for wluch
followiiig factors are responsible : i
i) universal ~namageamong all sections societji,
ii) early marriage leading to increased reproduction period.
iii) early puberty due to lmt climate, z
iv) present birth control methods <adoptedso far llave not been mucli effective.
v) illitemcy of woinen inadequate knowledge of artificial niethoQ of birth cont~r~l
vi) poverty -Weaker sections of society think tlmt Imving more cllildren provide
them better livelil~ood,
vii) Conservative and ortliodox people who think that children are &d's gtfl (am-
-

they should not interfere with tlis process,

viii)Lack of Recreatioilal facilities.
b) Consequences of over-population call be
i) inalnutrition illiterate. ~uiitminedand inefficient people or labour,
ii) undue pressure on infrastn~cturefacilities. e.g. on housing, trallsportation,
conunu~lication,liealtli a~ldsa~litationeducation. water a i d power supply etc.
iii) food shortage. poverty. uiienlployinenl, a~idlow standard of living,
 c) Measures to coiitml btttll rate can be
Re~i~edhl
i) adopting late mnarriagc.
ii) ~nakiiigpeople educated,
iii) illculcating the idea bf lli&hstandard of living.
i ) self control,
V) adopting 'artificial and scientific ~rletl~ods
of birth control.
vi) providing facilities for abortion, etc.
d) i) 84.6,
ii) second.
iii) i~~creasing,
iv) retarding.