Lect21.ppt Popultion

The rate of growth, r, remains the same from year to year,
then the change in population size in any given time

interval is:
dN/dT = rN.
However, r is not a constant for human populations .
During early parts of our population growth, r was low. More

recently, as agriculture flourished and particularly when the
industrial revolution took off in the 1800s, r has grown
dramatically. Thus the final part of the curve is much steeper
than a simple exponential.
The growth
rate peaked in
1963 and has
been declining
since.
Despite the
declines in rate,
the number of
people added to
the population
each year
continued to
increase until
Population
1990.
pyramids help to
explain this
difference.
A typical example of a high birth rate and high death rate pyramid. Life
expectancy is low.
2000
This kind of analysis 2.7 million
can be used to project
changes in population
in the coming years.
2025
4.7 million
Although both birth

and death rates are
currently high, the
birth rate is higher
and the death rate is
2050
expected to decrease. 7.1 million
Therefore, projections
show that the pyramid
and the population will
expand rapidly.
China’s pyramid shows the results of the single child policy.
1.268 billion
China’s population is
projected to stabilize
by 2050
1.453 billion
1.424 billion
The Russia pyramid 2000
147 million
shows frequent
changes in birth or
death rates, with a
rapid, recent reduction
in births.
2025
128 million
Projections suggest
this lower birthrate
will continue and the
population will
actually shrink.
2050
109 million
The Japan pyramid 127 million
also shows frequent
changes in birth or
death rates, with a
rapid, recent reduction
in births.
The Japanese 118 million

population is
currently shrinking
and will continue to
do so.
94 million
The US pyramid shows 2000 282 million
the results of the baby
boom (1946-66) and
maybe the “baby
bounce” 25-30 years
later
2025 349 million

The birth rate is
picking up again and
the population is
predicted to rise
further. The 2050
population will be
about 50% larger than
in 2000. 2050 420 million
The 85+ category is

the most rapidly
growing.
Obviously populations cannot continue to grow at
this rate, or even at a reduced but still exponential
rate. At some point the resources of the globe will
be exhausted.
In experimental situations, populations reach a maximum as
resources (food supply, energy input, etc.) are exhausted and
waste products accumulate. The equation describing this
kind of growth is called the logistic equation. The new
parameter introduced here is the carrying capacity, K, or
plateau value.
dN/dT = rN(K - N)/K
The value of K determines the size of a population, or if you
are looking at the world as a whole, K determines the total
number of people the earth can support. Unfortunately
estimates of the global carrying capacity vary widely and
have frequently been surpassed as new technologies
progressed.
Although the carrying capacity or upper limit on population
has been difficult to establish for global populations, it is a
useful concept for analyzing changes in local or national
populations.
Japan, Russia, 2000
2000
As we’ve seen, several of the industrialized nations seem to

have reached or are close to stabilized (or even declining)
populations. How did they get there?
As populations or
countries
develop, they
frequently go
through
demographic
transitions that
include
reductions in first
the death rate
and later in the
birth rates.
During such a
transition
population size
increases.
Finally, a new
plateau level or
new carrying
capacity is
established.
The industrial revolution allowed
demographic transitions like this.
For example, England began a
transition in the early 1700s that took
250-300 years to complete.
Other industrialized countries - US,
Canada, Japan, Germany, France,
others - went through a transition in
about 200 years.
Several recently developing countries,
as exemplified by Brazil, India, and
China, began transitions during the
twentieth century and did so much
more suddenly, often going from high
traditional mortality rates to low
modern rates in a single generation.
With improving sanitation and medical care many other countries
are expected to join this accelerated transition, but some may
continue to lag because of poor nutrition, famine, persistent
warfare, and epidemic diseases.
Increases to total population
• One of the most important – agriculture
• This allowed stable settlements
• Promoted government, collective defense
• Growth of trades, textiles, pottery, metallurgy
• Much better nutrition, both plants (grain, etc) and
domestic animals
•Public health measures that reduce spread of diseases – clean
water, reduction of vector niches (eg mosquitos), quarantines,
sanitation, monitoring of food supplies
• Antibiotics
• Vaccinations
•Industrial revolution and its sequelae
•Green revolution -
Limits on human population
Prosperity - decreased birth rate
Disease
Food supply/famine
Water - increased death rate
Pollution
Prosperity
-with increased health and economic prosperity, human
populations reduce their birth rate, often through some form of
birth control
-the use of birth control is directly correlated with the rate and
extent of education of girls and young women.
Disease
Food supply/famine
Water
Pollution
Disease -
The three largest killers are:
HIV/AIDS - has killed >25 million, 2.4-3.3 million in 2005
- estimated about 40 million infected in 2005
- about 1/3 in subsaharan Africa
Tuberculosis - in 2004 14.6 million chronic cases, 8.9 million new,
1.6 million deaths;
- resurgent partly due to the rise in HIV and neglect
of TB control;
Malaria (Anopheles mosquito) - 515 million cases/yr, 1-3 million
deaths
Large epidemics
Influenza - seasonal epidemics, sporadic pandemics
- 1918 “Spanish flu”, perhaps the “greatest medical
holocaust in history” - 50-100 million deaths
in two years
- extremely virulent, 2.5% lethal compared with
normal flu 0.1%
- one fifth of the world infected, no way to escape it
Prosperity
Disease
Food supply/famine
-often caused by droughts, crop failures
- currently famines are problems of food distribution, politics
Water
Pollution
Prosperity
Disease
Food supply/famine
Water
-water shortages are likely to be one of the most critical
problems this century
-we will return to it in later lectures, because global warming
will have major effects on water supply
Pollution
Disease
Food supply/famine
Water
Prosperity -> reduced fertility
Pollution – air, water
• Environmental exposure causes almost a quarter of all diseases.
More than two million people worldwide are estimated to die
prematurely every year from indoor and outdoor air pollution.
•In developing countries some 3 million people die annually from
water-borne diseases, most of them under-five-year-olds. An
estimated 2.6 billion people lack improved sanitation services. By
2025, water withdrawals are predicted to have risen by 50 per cent
in developing countries and by 18 per cent in the developed world.
Now, global warming - it may overwhelm all the other limits.

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The rate of growth, r, remains the same from year to year,

then the change in population size in any given time

However, r is not a constant for human populations .

During early parts of our population growth, r was low. More

Although both birth

The Japanese 118 million

2025 349 million

The 85+ category is

As we’ve seen, several of the industrialized nations seem to

Now, global warming - it may overwhelm all the other limits.

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