Problem Solving &

Decision Making
Studi Independent Bersertifikat GNIK, 12 May 2022
presented by Rudy Afandi
Bulu apa yang warnanya kuning?

Bulu Band
Accepting The Problem

Need first to accept the problem by acknowledging that the problem exists and
committing yourself to trying to solve it and it will make you grow
Strategies to find the motivation to enter the process:
1. List your benefits from solving the problem. How the experience will grow you
personally and professionally → GROWTH MINDSET
2. Formalize your acceptance – commit to solve this problem
3. Accept responsibility for your life
4. Create a “worst-case” scenario
5. Identify what’s holding you back – what is preventing you from solving the problem?
It could be your fear of change
Step 2 : Analyze the Problem

“When a cause is mistakenly selected, no matter what

solution is executed, the problem is still there”

Unknown

“You can’t solve problems with the “In any moment of decision the best
same thinking that created them” thing you can do is the right thing, the
Albert Einstein next best thing is the wrong thing, and
the worst thing you can do is nothing.”
Theodore Roosevelt
Where did the problem start?

Interview/question anyone who might know something useful about the problem.
Ask questions to:

1. Clarify the situation

2. Challenge assumptions about the problem

3. Determine possible reasons and evidence

4. Explore different perspectives concerning the problem

5. Ask more about the original question

Analyzing Tools – Asking Details 5W 1H
Asking questions is the key to analyzing problems.

What is right and wrong? Why did it happen?

When and Where? → to locate the the problem, where the problem exists and
where it does not, when first and last seen

Who is involved and who is not?

How? → to explore extent; How far, How many, How much affected

Such questions cannot be answered with single word, but require some form of
comment.

Your problem statement and description are the best grounds for generating the
right questions.

Hold creative thinking session to generate questions.

Fishbone Analysis

Fishbone diagram is an analysis tool which provides a systematic way of understanding

problems and the root causes of those problems. The design of the diagram looks like
the skeleton of a fish hence, it is referred to as the fishbone diagram.

Invented by Dr. Kaoru Ishikawa, so it is often called as the Ishikawa diagram or cause
and effect diagram.

Fishbone diagram is of great value in assisting teams in categorizing the many potential
causes problems or issues in a systematic way and helps identify root causes.

It is used when
◦ To determine the root cause
◦ To study all the possible reasons
◦ To study why a process is not performing properly and/or producing the expected results
Fishbone Analysis – how is it used?
◦ Draw a fishbone diagram
◦ List the problem/issue to be studied in the head of the fish
◦ Label each bone of the fish. The major categories typically used are:
◦ The 5M’s: Methods, Materials, Manpower, Measurement, Management
◦ The 4 P’s: Place, Procedure, People, Policies
◦ The 4 S’s: Surroundings, Suppliers, Systems, Skills
◦ Try to identify factors that account for the problem in each category. Continue asking,
“Why is this happening?” and put additional factors, until you no longer get useful
information
◦ Analyze the results of the fishbone after you and your team members agree that an
adequate amount of detail has been provided under each major category.
◦ Do this by looking for those items that appear in more than one category. These become the ‘most
likely causes’.
◦ For those items identified as the “most likely causes”, the team should reach consensus
on listing those items in priority order with the first item being the most probable cause.
Fishbone Analysis – Example
Category/ Label of possible causes
Demanding boss

Low Salary

Definisi Masalah
Most Likely Causes : alarm, time record…?
Misalkan seorang CEO mengalami masalah karena Personal Assistant nya
yang selalu saja terlambat dalam memberikan laporan market dan keuangan
bulanan, sehingga sulit bagi CEO untuk melakukan tindakan bisnis yang
diperlukan secara cepat.

Anda sebagai konsultan manajemen di-hire untuk membenahi permasalahan

di atas. Pada tahap awal, buatkan Fishbone Analysis untuk menganalisa
permasalahan tersebut.
Identify the Causes

Identify the differences between what you identified and between what is right and
what is wrong.

What is different? Distinctive symptoms, locations, time (when it happens and

when it doesn’t), group (affected or not affected)

What has changed? Something happened to cause the problem (when). People
(skill, leadership)/ Materials (specification, quality)/ Equipment (new, change in
maintenance)/ Processes (Training processes, patterns of communications)

What are the most likely explanations?

Proving the causes: Testing if the cause identified explains the symptoms
◦ Test the assumptions that support the analysis
◦ Replicate the problem in a controlled environment
Step 3 : Develop Alternative Solution

• Be creative
• Creativity is the ability to bring about something imaginative or new.
• In decision making, creativity means being able to generate alternatives that are
innovative or different from what has been used in the past
• Thinking outside the box
• A fundamental way to become more creative is to be open to your own ideas
• The creative problem solving and decision making process is useless unless it is
executed and have the value or improve the situation
Pindahkan hanya 2 batang korek api untuk
membuat 7 bujur sangkar

2 12

1 3
11

10

5 7 9

6 8
 Alasan menentang Ide Kreatif
Tidak praktis Kamu Apa sudah ada
secara Kita belum kecepetan competitor yg
operasional siap untuk Kita bakal mikirnya lakukan itu?
lakukan itu ditertawakan

Apa sudah
ada yang Kita sudah
pernah pernah
Tidak di Kita tidak lakukan itu?
Itu bukan nyoba itu…
budget-kan punya
problem
waktu
kita
Ide itu
kemahalan
Ah main2 Kita bentuk
kamu…. aja team Itu di luar
Para boss untuk otoritas kita
tidak akan eksekusi Ide ini
pernah setuju perubahan
dengan ide yang terlalu
seperti ini radikal
Brainstorming – Ground Rules

1. No Bad Ideas, No Filters, No Challenges, No Criticize

2. Go for large quantities

3. Everyone must speak up

4. Build on each other ideas

 Individual vs Group Brainstorming

Individual Brainstorming: Group Brainstorming:

1. Tends to develop fewer ideas, but takes 1. It is best for generating many ideas, but
each idea further. can be time consuming
2. Can be risky for individuals. Valuable but 2. Needs formal rules for it to work
strange suggestions may appear stupid smoothly (disagreement)
at first sight.
3. Group brainstorming sessions are
usually enjoyable experiences, which
are great for creating cohesion in a
team
 Creative Thinking Stimulus Techniques

• Random Word
• Random Picture
• SCAMPER : Substitute, Combine, Adapt, Modify, Put to other
Purpose, Eliminate, Re-arrange
Random Words

Apa yang terbayang oleh anda ketika disebut kata …..

uang belanja
Beli kepuasan
E commerce
keinginan

Imajinasikan ide solusi apa yang anda bisa kaitkan dengan

dengan kata tersebut?
Random Pictures

Apa yang terbayang oleh anda ketika melihat gambar …..

Imajinasikan ide solusi apa yang anda bisa kaitkan dengan

dengan gambar tersebut tersebut?
 SCAMPER
Substituting part of your problem/opportunity for something else. By looking for
Definition
something to substitute you can often come up with new ideas.
Substitute
What can I substitute to make an improvement? What if I swap this for that and see what
Question
happens? How can I substitute the place, time, materials or people?
Combining two or more parts of your problem/opportunity to achieve a different
Definition
product/process or to enhance synergy.
Combine
What materials, features, processes, people, products or components can I combine?
Question
Where can I build synergy?
Adapting to remove the problem/opportunity or think how you could change the nature
Definition
of the product/process.
Adapt
What part of the product could I change? And in exchange for what? What if I were to
Question
change the characteristics of a component?

Changing part or all of the current situation, or to distort it in an unusual way. By forcing
Definition yourself to come up with new ways of working, you are often prompted into an
Modify / alternative product/process.
Distort
What happens if I warp or exaggerate a feature or component? What will happen if I
Question
modify the process in some way?
 SCAMPER
To put your current solution/ product/process to other purposes, or think of what you
could reuse from somewhere else in order to solve your own problem/opportunity. You
Definition
might think of another way of solving your own problem/opportunity or finding another
Put to Other
market for your product.
Purpose

Question What other market could I use this product in? Who or what else might be able to use it?

Eliminate various parts of the product/process and consider what you might do in that
Definition situation. This often leads you to consider different ways of tackling the problem or
opportunity.
Eliminate
What would happen if I removed a component or part of it? How else would I achieve
Question
the solution without the normal way of doing it?

Reverse part of how your problem/opportunity/product/process work or done in a

Definition
different order.
Rearrange /
Reverse What if I did it the other way round? What if I reverse the order it is done or the way it is
Question
used? How would I achieve the opposite effect?
Brainstorming – List All Options

Possible Solutions : I N Q X H T P L ...

 Step 4: Evaluating Solution
• Determining criteria and its weight aligned with the desired state of problem definition
• As much as we can, quantify the evaluation. Otherwise put a likely score
Issue 1B
Solution / Addressing Impact Feasibility

High
Initiative Issues
X Q
I 1A High Low

Feasibility
Medium
Q 1A, 1B High High

X 1B Medium High

L 1C Medium Medium
T

Low
T 1B, 1C Low Low
Low Medium High

Bisa ditambahkan menjadi >2 Impact

dimensi, ex: weighted issues, split
the impact based, revenue cost..etc
 Other Tools

Cost Benefit Analysis

Evaluating quantitatively whether to follow a course of action. Add up the
value of the benefits of a course of action and subtract the costs associated
with it.
Pareto Analysis
80% of unfocused effort generates only 20% of results.
The remaining 80% of results are achieved with only 20% of the effort.
Decision Making

Process involves problem analysis, generating alternative solutions,

evaluating and choosing among available alternatives and implementing
solutions.
To consider all criteria. While a particular decision may solve the problem,
it may not work if,
• resources aren’t available, if people won’t accept it, or if it causes new
problems

It is about making choices and execution → require leadership capability

Decisions and problem solving can be found in human being or technical
brains i.e. computers
Involving Stakeholders
At work, many decisions are not taken solely
People involves in the decision will better understand an alternative selected
and also be more likely to support the decision.
• Who would you involve?
• Would you pass it on to your boss?
• Would you consult a colleague or an outside expert?
• What process would you use?
• Would you insist on what you believe is the best decision or discard yours in favour
of what the team decides?
Note however that:
• Group decision making is slower than individual decision making
• There is an opportunity cost to the organization when employees spend time in
meetings rather than selling
• If one person dominates the decision-making process the value of group input is lost
Gradient Agreement

• This is a tool that supports team decision making.

• When teams are trying to come to agreement on an issue there is rarely
100% agreement or 100% disagreement.
• Gradients of agreement can help to identify those “shades” between the
two extremes and send an indicator on whether there is strong or weak
support for a decision and therefore whether to go ahead and
implement even if the outcome of the team decision process is a weak
“YES”.
• It allows the team to identify where each person stands on the issue and
builds self awareness and ownership in the decision-making process.
Gradient Agreement

1 Fully Support : “I Like it”

Enthusiastic
Support
2 Endorsement with minor concerns: “ I basically like it”

3 Agree with reservation “I can live with it”

Lukewarm 4 Abstain : “I have no opinion”

Support
5 Stand Aside : “I don’t like this but I don’t want to hold back the team”

Disagreement, but willing to go with majority: “I want my disagreement

6
Meager noted, but I will support the decision”
Support Disagreement, with request to be involved in implementation :”I don’t want
7
to stop anyone else, but I don’t want to be involved in implementing it”

Strong
8 I can’t support the decision
Objection
Risk in Decision Making

✓Only risk-takers are truly free. All decisions of

consequences involve risk
✓No such thing as permanent security
✓It is natural to be afraid when you risk
✓Separation anxiety is normal when you are out of your
comfort zone
Mitigating the Risk in Decision Making

If risk necessary, desirable, have a clear purpose and a goal

Do it for the right reasons, when calm, thoughtful, and non-emotional
Look pros, cons, probabilities, consequences and worst case scenarios
Use imaging and visualization
Have a plan, a timetable with setting SMART goals
Dismiss extremely remote or unrealistic possibilities that are
highly/extremely improbable, avoid catastrophes whenever possible
Recognize the tradeoffs
Common Decision Making Error & Biases

Hindsight Overconfidence Immediate

Gratification

Representation
Selective Perception

Self-serving
Decision Making Confirmation
Errors & Biases
Randomness Framing

Sunk costs Availability Anchoring Effect

Common Biases and Errors

Overconfidence Biases
– Believing too much in our own ability to make good decisions

Hindsight bias-opposite of overconfidence

– Looking back, once the outcome has occurred, and believing that you accurately predicted
the outcome of an event (driver/noises in car)

Anchoring bias
– Using early, first received information as the basis for making subsequent judgements.
(Coroner/Burned airplane)

Confirmation bias
– Using only the facts that support our decision
Common Biases and Errors
Availability Bias
– Using information that is most ready at hand

Representative Bias
– Using only the facts that we prefer to explore

Framing bias
– Decision makers are influenced by the way information is presents

Escalation of Commitment:

Continue of failing course of action even after information have been revealed
– Continuation is often based on the idea that one has already invested in the course of
action
Terima Kasih