FACULTY OF ADMINISTRATION

PROFESSIONAL SCHOOL OF ADMINISTRATION

ISSUE
“ SCENARIO PLANNING METHODS AND TECHNIQUES”

Group No. 12
ARROYO NAUCAPOMA, Andrea Lisset

MELENDEZ CERRINOS, Bernardo

PULIDO ALVA, Luis Armando

TORRES DELGADO Maria Santos

TEACHER
ESPINOZA DE LA CRUZ MANUEL ANTONIO

CHIMBOTE - PERU
2021
INDEX
YO. PLANNING BY SCENARIO METHODS AND TECHNIQUES........................................2
1.1 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................2
1.2 ORIGIN.........................................................................................................................3
1.3 OBJECTIVES..................................................................................................................3
1.4 PLANNING BY SCENARIOS............................................................................................3
1.5 STEPS TO MAKE A SCENARIO PLANNING PROPOSAL.....................................................4
1.5.1 CHARACTERISTICS OF PLANNING BY SCENARIOS........................................................4
1.6 BENEFITS......................................................................................................................4
1.7 ADVANTAGES THAT PLANNING SCENARIOS BRING US IN A COMPANY.........................4
1.8. DIMENSION ANALYSIS MATRIX...................................................................................5
1.9 .METHODS FOR MAKING SCENARIO PLANNING DECISIONS.....................................5
DELPHI method.................................................................................................................5
CROSS IMPACT METHOD......................................................................................................5
1.10 MATRIX OF CROSS IMPACTS.......................................................................................6
2. CONCLUSIONS......................................................................................................10
3. REFERENCES.........................................................................................................11
YO. PLANNING BY SCENARIO METHODS AND
TECHNIQUES

1.1 INTRODUCTION

Predicting the future or building it from perspectives is not an easy task. Methods such as
qualitative and quantitative predictions, future studies, simulations, causal modeling, futurology,
among others, provide clues about what tomorrow holds. Being able to predict it becomes a key
element to establish strategic plans, anticipate possible obstacles with it or take advantage of
future opportunities. This article offers a bibliographic review of references to scenario planning,
a technique that involves prospective studies and systematic simulations, which analyzes
articles in indexed journals, books, doctoral theses and other technical documents where they
are referenced in the business academic world. It starts from a theoretical conception of the
definition of the scenarios, the existing methods to build them, the validation process and the
fields of application in the business domain.

With the multitude of tools that can be used in strategic planning, scenario planning today has
become the methodology for predicting and/or building the future. By identifying key trends,
scenarios can be formulated with the aim of improving decision making and mitigating risks
within the organization.

1.2 ORIGIN
Scenario planning (or scenario analysis) has its origins in the military conception in the Second
World War in the 1940s, but it was consolidated as an organizational planning model in 1950,
introduced by Herman Kahn who worked for the Department of Defense. from United States. In
1961, Kahn founded the Hudson Institute with the purpose of teaching about the future in an
unconventional way under his own scheme of thought and in 1967, together with Anthony
Wiener, he published “The year 2000”, a book in which he establishes a series of world
scenarios for a projection period of 33 years.

1.3 OBJECTIVES
- Have the ease of making decisions when organizing information about possible futures
- Analyze the operating environment to design appropriate strategies for a plausible
future.
- Evaluate the company's future decisions to choose the appropriate strategies
- Get a better and broader vision of the future of how the company could develop.
- Recognize the signs that direct us to the future and adapt more quickly
1.4 PLANNING BY SCENARIOS
Scenario Planning originates from the assumption that ultimately knowing the future does not
can be achieved with any certainty. Starting from this point of view, scenario planners focus on
imagining the multiple future alternatives that may occur.

Scenario planning are tools that are used to analyze and plan the future of the company.
According to French (2001) states that, "scenarios are descriptions of the possible
environments in which the company could be located in the future, since the main function of
the scenarios is to warn about possible events that may affect the company." According to the
author, scenarios are a primary function so that companies can plan their future.”

On the other hand, Bas (2002) tells us that “a scenario is a futurible, a possible future among
several alternatives, which describes a hypothetical future situation. In an analogous way."
According to the author, he confirms the importance because if the company goes through
some type of problem, it will be easier for it to make the right decision and thus be able to cope
with things with a good strategy.

1.5 STEPS TO MAKE A SCENARIO PLANNING PROPOSAL

1. You must identify and collect the main variables that define the environment to be
analyzed.
2. Probabilities must be assigned to the chosen variables
3. A scenario must be self-aware, that is, it must not incur contradictions.

1.5.1 CHARACTERISTICS OF PLANNING BY SCENARIOS

- It allows us to make decisions today that can affect tomorrow
- Ensure the validity of the strategy across different scenarios
- They provide us with sudden changes
- help us create opportunities
- Security does not offer a single projection for the future if it does not offer to recognize
the changes along the way and adapt

1.6 BENEFITS
- They are a tool that allows us to look at the future in a world of great uncertainty.
- It allows us to organize the perceptions that one has about the alternative future
environments in which we will have to make decisions.
- Collect and transform strategic meaning reports into fresh insights into tomorrow.
- We Anticipate and influence change.
- We reduce future risks.
1.7 ADVANTAGES THAT PLANNING SCENARIOS BRING US IN A
COMPANY
- Allows you to anticipate events associated with the current performance pattern
- It offers different perspectives to find new solutions to profitability and productivity
problems in the company.
- It allows you to have a systematic overview of the possible favorable and unfavorable
circumstances for the organization.
- It allows you to identify those situations in which it is worth investing

1.8. DIMENSION ANALYSIS MATRIX

I.9 .METHODS FOR MAKING SCENARIO PLANNING DECISIONS

DELPHI method
The experts' estimates are made in different rounds, with the aim of achieving
consensus, but with maximum autonomy for the participants. Cabero and Infante (2014,
p. 2) argue that "the Delphi method is possibly one of the most used in recent times by
researchers for different situations and problems, ranging from the identification of
topics to be investigated, specifying the research questions, research, identify a
theoretical perspective for the foundation of the research, select the variables of
interest, identify the causal relationships between factors, define and validate the
constructs, develop instruments for analysis or information collection, or create a
common language for discussion and knowledge management in a scientific area.
CROSS IMPACT METHOD

Technique that serves to measure the dependency relationships between different

events or events that are interrelated. Through this method, different future scenarios
can be designed and compared to make decisions in the company. According to Vitale
and Rango (2008) they mention that “Cross-impact methods aim to determine the
simple and conditional probabilities of hypotheses or events, as well as the probabilities
of combinations of the latter, taking into account the interactions between the events
and/or hypotheses. ”With respect to what the authors say, the cross-impact method
serves to measure the dependency relationships between different events or events
that are interrelated.
This is a technique that is part of the Scenario Method and is useful for analyzing the
company's environment. It is a prospective technique, so that, through this method,
different future scenarios can be designed and compared to make decisions in the
company.

1.10 MATRIX OF CROSS IMPACTS

EVENTS TO b c d
TO
b
c
d
ELABORATION

When there is a positive cross impact, this is represented in the corresponding box with
an upward arrow (boxes AC, BD, CD, CB); when the impact is negative, the
representation is made with a downward arrow (boxes AD, BA, CA, DC); The non-
existence of cross impact between <a0vtwo events is indicated in the matrix with a dash
in the corresponding box (boxes AB, BC and DA).
The cross-impact matrix, as an analysis instrument, allows us to observe the possible
interdependencies between various key factors of the future environment in a simple,
exhaustive and systematic way. However, more than an individually valid method for
making forecasts, it constitutes a forecasting instrument complementary to other
methods. Thus, cross impacts can be very useful in the construction of scenarios and in
the analysis of their evolution.

Example
 Suppose that it is necessary to analyze the country's regional decentralization process
as a system over a ten-year planning horizon. A consultation is carried out with experts
on the subject and they determine four significant events. In addition, an external event
is considered that can alter the trends of the defined events and allows us to observe
how an environmental variable affects the study system.

Subsequently, probabilities of occurrence are assigned to each event and the impacts
between the events are established.

After consulting experts, the values assumed for the cross-impact matrix are the

following:

The first thing to do is use equation B to obtain the value of the exponent Pi values that
have been estimated for the impacts in equation B and calculate the first value for
variable Pi variable E1 (Income taxes increase) in iteration one. (t) which is required in
equation A. The (t) are substituted, which is considered as P1(t1), that is, the P value of
the variable E1 (Income taxes increase) in iteration one.

- STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS METHOD

It is a method that serves to structure ideas. From a systemic and global vision, it allows
us to understand and describe problems, approaching them as systems. These
systems will be composed of different components or variables, which relate and
interact with each other.
., according to Godet (2003), tells us that “it is a collective reflection, it describes a
system with the help of a matrix where they interact in a relationship with
all the variables, which impact each other .”
To carry out this analysis, Godet designed the toolbox, which
It consists of instruments, methods and techniques designed to facilitate planning. The
methods and software tools that support the analysis processes of the methods of
created scenarios, among the most used are:
1. PROSPECTIVE WORKSHOPS, select the correct question and choose the method
appropriate.
2. MICMAC, identifies the key variables for structural analysis.
3. MACTOR, analyzes the strategies of the different actors, identifies the position of
actors, their forces, convergences and divergences.
4. MORPHOL, guides the field of possibilities through morphological analysis.
5. MULTIPOLAR, evaluate and choose the strategic option.
6. SMIC Prob-Expert, reduces uncertainty with the help of interviews with experts.

In short, through structural analysis, we can identify which variables make up the
system, also allowing us to make a list of these variables ordered according to their
importance in relation to the influences they exert on each other. That is, in addition to
determining which variables act in the system, we can highlight which ones we must act
on, due to their greater influence on the others.

Classification of variables and according to location

The first input/output diagonal provides the reading direction of the system

Input variable : It is located in the upper left part, it is strongly driving, little dependent
and determines the functioning of the system.
- Output variables : They are located at the bottom and to the right, these account for
the results and operation of the system, they are little influential and very dependent,
they are also called result or sensitive variables and they are associated with evolution
indicators, because they are translated as objectives.

The second diagonal is the strategic diagonal, since the further away it is from
the origin, the more strategic the variables have, it distributes the plane between
the driving and dependent variables.
Autonomous variables : They are located in the area close to the origin, they are little
influential or driving and little dependent, they correspond to past trends or inertia of the
system, they do not constitute a determining part for the future of the system. -Objective
variables: They combine a reduced level of motor skills and dependency. The name is
given to them because they are somewhat outside the behavior of the system. - Key
variables : They are located in the upper right area, they are also called challenge
variables, they are very driving and very dependent, they disturb the normal functioning
of the system and over determine the system itself, they are by nature unstable and
correspond to the challenges of the system.
Variables located in the upper right part of the motor/dependence plane make
them extraordinarily important and integral variables .
Determining variables : They are located in the upper left area, they are not very
dependent and very driving according to the evolution of the study and they become
the brake and driving force of the system, hence their name.
- Environment variables : They are located in the upper left part of the plane, they
have little dependence and they are a decoration of the system.
- Regulatory variables : They are located in the central area of the plan, they become a
key to achieving compliance with the key variables and are those that determine the
operation of the system under normal conditions. +
Secondary lever . Acting on them means evolving their immediate priors, which in
turn affect the evolution of the key variables. They are less motor, therefore, less
important for the evolution and functioning of the system; The importance that they
acquire for an adequate evolution of the system is evident.
Objective variables . They are located in the central part, they are very dependent
and moderately motorized, they can be influenced so that their evolution is what is
desired, they are characterized by a high level of dependence and medium motor
skills. Its name is given by its level of dependency; it allows acting directly on them
with a margin of maneuver that can be considered high.
+ Result variables . They are characterized by their low motor skills and high
dependency, and are usually, together with the target variables, descriptive indicators
of the evolution of the system. These are variables that cannot be addressed head-on,
but rather through those that depend on the system.
Dependency influence matrix
 Determinant Key
variables variables

Environment Regulatory
Variables variables

Target
variables
Secondary
lever

Autonomou
s variables Results
variables

Example
Let's consider the following variables for the (very, very basic) study of sales in a
business:

Price of the product

Sales (revenue)
Training of staff (dependents)
Quality of customer service
Once the variables have been determined, we have delimited the system and the
factors that make it up.
Now, with the help of the following diagram, let's see how these variables are directly
related (continuous arrows):

The price of the product directly influences only sales.

The sales variable directly influences the price of the product (the better the sales, the
greater the flexibility to reduce the price) and the training of personnel (more capital for
investment in training).
It is logical to think that better staff training will directly improve customer service.
Presumably, higher quality customer service will drive up sales.
2. CONCLUSIONS
 The scenario creation process uses a range of techniques to research, collect ideas
and write stories, in its attempt to capture in narrative form all those events that define
the boundaries of the competitive terrains of the future.

 As uncertainty increases, so does the potential for confusion and paralysis, which can
lead to a “wait and see” attitude and lack of commitment. Companies need a
mechanism that allows them to relate and focus ongoing events, while reducing
uncertainty to a manageable condition.
 Scenario analysis achieves this, through a process of collective vision, which limits the
range of possible futures and gives them consistency and detail.

3. REFERENCES
French, A. (2001). Strategy for the company in Latin America. Venezuela: Iesa Editions.

Retrieved from: https://www.redalyc.org/pdf/290/29018865006.pdf

Base. (2002). Prospective. How to use thinking about the future. Barcelona: Editorial Ariel, SA

Retrieved from: https://www.redalyc.org/pdf/290/29018865006.pdf

Cabero Almenara, J., and Infante Moro, A. (2014). Use of the Delphi method and its use in
research in Communication and Education. EDUTEC Electronic Journal of Educational
Research, 48, 1-16

Recovered from: file:///C:/Users/Usuario/Downloads/14631-Text%20de%20l'article-28704-1-10-

20160107%20(3).pdf

Javier Vitale - Luís Rango (2008) cross-impact matrix methods.

Recovered from https://cepcuyo.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/08.-Metodo-matriz-de-

impacto-cruzado.pdf

Godet, M. (2003). The strategic foresight toolbox. Lindavista Center.

Mexico. Retrieved in September 2011.

Recovered from: http://eprints.uanl.mx/6167/1/24.%20capitulo%20Metodologia%20-

%20MICMAC%20%28Direcci%C3%B3n%20del%20libro%20a%20la%20venta
%20ttpwww.tirant .commexlibro9788416062324%23%29.pdf