Nama Mahasiswa : Alex Sander

Nomor Induk Mhs. : 2021065015020

Program Studi : Magister (S2) Teknik Sipil
Mata Kuliah : Statistik dan Probabilitas

Data Curah Hujan Bulanan

Periode Tahun : 2011 s/d 2020

BULAN Nilai Terbesar Nilai Terkecil Rata-Rata

NO. TAHUN
Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Agu Sep Okt Nov Des (Maximum ) (Minimum ) (Average )
1. 2011 60.30 109.50 29.80 23.20 24.00 69.60 126.00 112.80 73.30 48.50 104.00 95.00 126.00 23.20 73.00
2. 2012 30.90 108.30 71.30 48.00 44.00 35.70 22.00 17.90 60.80 50.60 40.80 17.80 108.30 17.80 45.68
3. 2013 151.40 68.00 130.60 15.90 36.60 53.10 24.40 22.60 32.30 25.00 41.70 73.70 151.40 15.90 56.28
4. 2014 86.00 52.00 26.00 66.00 31.00 53.50 25.30 60.00 53.00 35.50 41.80 39.40 86.00 25.30 47.46
5. 2015 44.50 38.90 33.20 24.80 32.90 35.40 75.00 20.80 68.70 20.20 26.40 16.10 75.00 16.10 36.41
6. 2016 32.60 36.50 42.50 23.90 27.70 38.60 134.10 28.70 62.60 27.40 25.20 50.40 134.10 23.90 44.18
7. 2017 81.10 50.20 30.20 43.60 39.80 79.80 56.00 63.60 49.60 79.30 55.30 43.00 81.10 30.20 55.96
8. 2018 48.00 54.00 62.50 51.00 58.50 24.10 23.20 34.30 66.90 35.00 50.60 55.30 66.90 23.20 46.95
9. 2019 68.60 65.70 114.00 58.80 43.20 72.40 46.70 12.00 24.60 65.00 45.30 26.20 114.00 12.00 53.54
10. 2020 31.00 82.70 37.50 32.40 31.50 18.60 18.60 30.30 25.00 37.80 85.30 16.40 85.30 16.40 37.26
 PERHITUNGAN PARAMETER HUJAN

DATA HUJAN
NO. TAHUN (X'-X)2 (X'-X)3
MAKSIMUM (X)
1. 2011 126.00 537.78 -12471.03
2. 2012 108.30 30.14 -165.47
3. 2013 151.40 2360.99 -114720.41
4. 2014 86.00 282.58 4750.10
5. 2015 75.00 773.40 21508.15
6. 2016 134.10 979.06 -30634.92
7. 2017 81.10 471.32 10232.45
8. 2018 66.90 1289.53 46306.95
9. 2019 114.00 125.22 -1401.17
10. 2020 85.30 306.60 5368.57
Jumlah (S) 1028.10 7156.61 -71226.77
Rata-Rata (X') 102.81 715.66 -7122.68
Standar Deviasi (S) 28.20 697.13 42833.64
Varians (S2) 795.18 485993.36 1834720562.81
Koefisien Varians (Cv), Cv=S/X' 0.27 0.97 -6.01
Koefisien Skewness (Cs) 0.44 1.62 -1.90
Koefisien Kurtosis (Ck) -1.06 2.92 4.95

FUNGSI DISTRIBUSI

A. DISTRIBUSI NORMAL

Dari tabel Perhitungan Parameter Hujan diperoleh :

X' = m 102.81
S =s 28.20

Tabel Probabilitas Kumulatif Distribusi Normal Standar Dengan Z

z 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
-0.1 0.4602 0.4562 0.4522 0.4483 0.4443 0.4404 0.4364 0.4325 0.4286 0.4247
0.0 0.5000 0.5040 0.5080 0.5120 0.5160 0.5199 0.5239 0.5279 0.5319 0.5359
0.1 0.5398 0.5438 0.5478 0.5517 0.5557 0.5596 0.5636 0.5675 0.5714 0.5753
0.2 0.5793 0.5832 0.5871 0.5910 0.5948 0.5987 0.6026 0.6064 0.6103 0.6141
0.3 0.6179 0.6217 0.6255 0.6293 0.6331 0.6368 0.6406 0.6443 0.6480 0.6517
0.4 0.6554 0.6591 0.6628 0.6664 0.6700 0.6736 0.6772 0.6808 0.6844 0.6879
0.5 0.6915 0.6950 0.6985 0.7019 0.7054 0.7088 0.7123 0.7157 0.7190 0.7224
0.6 0.7257 0.7291 0.7324 0.7357 0.7389 0.7422 0.7454 0.7486 0.7517 0.7549 Proses Interpolasi :
0.7 0.7580 0.7611 0.7642 0.7673 0.7704 0.7734 0.7764 0.7794 0.7823 0.7852 0.7995 0.84
0.8 0.7881 0.7910 0.7939 0.7967 0.7995 0.8023 0.8051 0.8078 0.8106 0.8133 0.8023 0.85
0.9 0.8159 0.8186 0.8212 0.8238 0.8264 0.8289 0.8315 0.8340 0.8365 0.8389 Fz = 0.8 Z = 0.84 5 Thn
1.0 0.8413 0.8438 0.8461 0.8485 0.8508 0.8531 0.8554 0.8577 0.8599 0.8621
1.1 0.8643 0.8665 0.8686 0.8708 0.8729 0.8749 0.8770 0.8790 0.8810 0.8830 0.8997 1.28
1.2 0.8849 0.8869 0.8888 0.8907 0.8925 0.8944 0.8962 0.8980 0.8997 0.9015 0.9015 1.29
1.3 0.9032 0.9049 0.9066 0.9082 0.9099 0.9115 0.9131 0.9147 0.9162 0.9177 Fz = 0.9 Z = 1.28 10 Thn
1.4 0.9192 0.9207 0.9222 0.9236 0.9251 0.9265 0.9279 0.9292 0.9306 0.9319
1.5 0.9332 0.9345 0.9357 0.9370 0.9382 0.9394 0.9406 0.9418 0.9429 0.9441 0.9599 1.75
1.6 0.9452 0.9463 0.9474 0.9484 0.9495 0.9505 0.9515 0.9525 0.9535 0.9545 0.9608 1.76
1.7 0.9554 0.9564 0.9573 0.9582 0.9591 0.9599 0.9608 0.9616 0.9625 0.9633 Fz = 0.96 Z = 1.75 25 Thn
1.8 0.9641 0.9649 0.9656 0.9664 0.9671 0.9678 0.9686 0.9693 0.9699 0.9706
1.9 0.9713 0.9719 0.9726 0.9732 0.9738 0.9744 0.9750 0.9756 0.9761 0.9767 0.9798 2.05
2.0 0.9772 0.9778 0.9783 0.9788 0.9793 0.9798 0.9803 0.9808 0.9812 0.9817 0.9803 2.06
2.1 0.9821 0.9826 0.9830 0.9834 0.9838 0.9842 0.9846 0.9850 0.9854 0.9857 Fz = 0.98 Z = 2.05 50 Thn
2.2 0.9861 0.9864 0.9868 0.9871 0.9875 0.9878 0.9881 0.9884 0.9887 0.9890
2.3 0.9893 0.9896 0.9898 0.9901 0.9904 0.9906 0.9909 0.9911 0.9913 0.9916 0.9898 2.32
2.4 0.9918 0.9920 0.9922 0.9925 0.9927 0.9929 0.9931 0.9932 0.9934 0.9936 0.9901 2.33
2.5 0.9938 0.9940 0.9941 0.9943 0.9945 0.9946 0.9948 0.9949 0.9951 0.9952 Fz = 0.99 Z = 2.33 100 Thn

Z
PERIODE ULANG (T) PROBABILITAS Fz x
(tabel probabilitas
(tahun) (%) Fz = 1-(1/T) x=Z.S + X'
kumulatif)
2 50 0.500 0.00 102.81
5 20 0.800 0.84 126.54
10 10 0.900 1.28 138.95
25 4 0.960 1.75 152.18
50 2 0.980 2.05 160.72
100 1 0.990 2.33 168.41
B. DISTRIBUSI LOG NORMAL

DATA HUJAN
NO. TAHUN Ln X (Ln X - Ln X')2
MAKSIMUM (X)
1. 2011 126.00 4.84 0.06
2. 2012 108.30 4.68 0.01
3. 2013 151.40 5.02 0.18
4. 2014 86.00 4.45 0.02
5. 2015 75.00 4.32 0.08
6. 2016 134.10 4.90 0.09
7. 2017 81.10 4.40 0.04
8. 2018 66.90 4.20 0.16
9. 2019 114.00 4.74 0.02
10. 2020 85.30 4.45 0.02
Jumlah (S) 1028.10 45.99 0.67
Rata-Rata (X') 102.81 4.60 0.07
Koefisien Skewness (Cs) 0.44 0.12 1.03
Koefisien Kurtosis (Ck) -1.06 -1.33 -0.11

Dari tabel Distribusi Log Normal diperoleh :

Jumlah data tahun (n) 10
Lnx = my = (SLn X) / n 4.60
sy = ((1/14-1).S(Ln X-Ln X')2)0.5 0.27

Z
PERIODE ULANG (T) PROBABILITAS Fz Lnx x
(tabel probabilitas
(tahun) (%) Fz = 1-(1/T) Lnx=(Z.sy)+Lnx x=Exp.Lnx
kumulatif)
2 50 0.500 0.00 4.60 99.41
5 20 0.800 0.84 4.83 125.10
10 10 0.900 1.28 4.95 141.06
25 4 0.960 1.75 5.08 160.34
50 2 0.980 2.05 5.16 174.17
100 1 0.990 2.33 5.23 187.63

C. DISTRIBUSI GUMBEL

Dari tabel Perhitungan Parameter Hujan diperoleh :

X' = 102.81
S = 28.20

Hitung a dan m :
a = (60.5 . S) / p = 21.987
m = X' - 0.5772 . a = 90.119

PERIODE ULANG (T) PROBABILITAS y x

(tahun) (%) y = -Ln[Ln(T/T-1)] x = m+a.y
2 50 0.4 98.178
5 20 1.5 123.098
10 10 2.3 139.597
25 4 3.2 160.444
50 2 3.9 175.910
100 1 4.6 191.261
 D. DISTRIBUSI LOG PEARSON III

Berdasarkan perhitungan yang telah dilakukan sebelumnya, diperoleh:

m = y = 4.60
s = sy = 0.27
csy = 0.12

Tabel B.1. Nilai-nilai K untuk Distribusi Log Pearson Tipe III

Periode Ulang, T (tahun)
Koefisien
2 5 10 25 50 100
Skewnesss
G Peluang (%)
50 20 10 4 2 1
3.0 -0.396 0.420 1.180 2.278 3.152 4.051
2.8 -0.384 0.460 1.210 2.275 3.114 3.973
2.6 -0.368 0.499 1.238 2.267 3.071 3.889
2.4 -0.351 0.537 1.262 2.256 3.023 3.800
2.2 -0.330 0.574 1.284 2.240 2.970 3.705
2.0 -0.307 0.609 1.302 2.219 2.912 3.605
1.8 -0.282 0.643 1.318 2.193 2.848 3.499
1.6 -0.254 0.675 1.329 2.163 2.780 3.388
1.4 -0.225 0.705 1.337 2.128 2.706 3.271
1.2 -0.195 0.732 1.340 2.087 2.626 3.149
1.0 -0.164 0.758 1.340 2.043 2.542 3.022
0.9 -0.148 0.769 1.339 2.018 2.498 2.957
0.8 -0.132 0.780 1.336 1.993 2.453 2.891
0.7 -0.116 0.790 1.333 1.967 2.407 2.824
0.6 -0.099 0.800 1.328 1.939 2.359 2.755
0.5 -0.083 0.808 1.323 1.910 2.311 2.686
0.4 -0.066 0.816 1.317 1.880 2.261 2.615
0.3 -0.050 0.824 1.309 1.849 2.211 2.544
0.2 -0.033 0.830 1.301 1.818 2.159 2.472
0.1 -0.017 0.836 1.292 1.785 2.107 2.400
0.0 0.000 0.842 1.282 1.751 2.054 2.326
-0.1 0.017 0.836 1.270 1.716 2.000 2.252
-0.2 0.033 0.850 1.258 1.680 1.945 2.178
-0.3 0.050 0.853 1.245 1.643 1.890 2.104
-0.4 0.066 0.855 1.231 1.606 1.834 2.029
-0.5 0.083 0.856 1.216 1.567 1.777 1.955

Interpolasi nilai K (dari tabel nilai K Distribusi Log Person III)

K
Cs
2 5 10 25 50 100
Max 0.200 -0.033 0.830 1.301 1.818 2.159 2.472
0.124 -0.0208 0.835 1.294 1.793 2.119 2.417
Min 0.100 -0.017 0.836 1.292 1.785 2.107 2.400

2 5 10 25 50 100
y 4.594 4.827 4.953 5.089 5.178 5.259
x = Exp. Y 98.849 124.854 141.548 162.197 177.323 192.344

Tabel Rekapitulasi Hasil Perhitungan Distribusi

PERIODE ULANG (T) DISTRIBUSI (NILAI x)

(tahun) LOG PEARSON
NORMAL LOG NORMAL GUMBEL
III
2 102.81 99.4 98.178 98.849
5 126.54 125.1 123.098 124.854
10 138.95 141.1 139.597 141.548
25 152.18 160.3 160.444 162.197
50 160.72 174.2 175.910 177.323
100 168.41 187.6 191.261 192.344
Tabel sebaran distribusi
HASIL
NO. JENIS DISTRIBUSI SYARAT KETERANGAN
PERHITUNGAN
Cs = 0 1.62
1. NORMAL Tidak Memenuhi
Ck = 3 2.92
Cs = 0.18 0.12
2. LOG NORMAL Tidak Memenuhi
Ck = 3.06 -1.33
Cs = 1.13 1.62
3. GUMBEL Tidak Memenuhi
Ck = 5.4 2.92

UJI KESESUAIAN DISTRIBUSI

A. Uji Sebaran Chi Kuadrat (Chi Squart Test)

DATA HUJAN
K = 1 + 3.22 . Log n TAHUN Log X
MAKSIMUM (X)
= 4.22 2011 126.00 2.10
= 5.0 2012 108.30 2.03
2013 151.40 2.18
DK = K - (P + 1) 2014 86.00 1.93
= 2.0 2015 75.00 1.88
2016 134.10 2.13
Ef = n / K 2017 81.10 1.91
= 2.0 2018 66.90 1.83
2019 114.00 2.06
Xmax - Xmin 2020 85.30 1.93
DX =
K-1 Max Log X 2.18
= 0.089 Min Log X 1.83

Xawal = Xmin - 1 * DX
= 1.737

Xakhir = Xmax + 1 * DX
= 2.269

Tabel Uji Sebaran Chi Kuadrat

JUMLAH DATA
NO. KEMUNGKINAN (Ef - Of)2 (Ef - Of)2/Ef
Ef Of
1. 1.737 < X < 1.825 2.0 0.000 4.00 2.00
2. 1.825 < X < 1.914 2.0 3.000 1.00 0.50
3. 1.914 < X < 2.003 2.0 2.000 0.00 0.00
4. 2.003 < X < 2.091 2.0 2.000 0.00 0.00
5. 2.091 < X < 2.180 2.0 2.000 0.00 0.00
Jumlah 10.00 9.00 - 2.50
Tabel nilai kritis Uji Chi Square
Chi-Square Hitung (Xh2) = 2.50
n = 10
α = 25%
K = 5.0
DK = 2.0
Chi-Square Kritis (Xh2 cr) = 2.7726
(Xh2) < (Xh2 cr)  OK

Berdasarkan perhitungan pada tabel-tabel diatas maka dapat diambil kesimpulan bahwa curah hujan rencana yang
dipakai berdasarkan Metode Log Person III dan hipotesa dapat diterima
B. Uji Sebaran Smirnov-Kolmogorof

n =6
Xrt = 149.519 (Xrt = Average of XTr)
SD = 28.20

Tr P(Xi) P(X) f(t) p'(Xi)

XTr m
(tahun) (m/(n+1)) (1-P(Xi)) ((XTr-Xrt)/SD) (m/(n-1))
2 98.849 1 0.143 0.857 -1.797 0.20
5 124.854 2 0.286 0.714 -0.875 0.40
10 141.548 3 0.429 0.571 -0.283 0.60
25 162.197 4 0.571 0.429 0.450 0.80
50 177.323 5 0.714 0.286 0.986 1.00
100 192.344 6 0.857 0.143 1.519 1.20

Tr P'(X) D Tabel nilai kritis Smirnov-Kolmogorof

(tahun) (1-p'(xi)) (P(x)-P'(x))
2 0.800 0.057
5 0.600 0.114
10 0.400 0.171
25 0.200 0.229
50 0.000 0.286
100 -0.200 0.343

Dmax = 0.343
Berdasarkan nilai n dan DK (a) = 5%, maka nilai D0 = 0.519
Kesimpulan bahwa curah hujan rencana menggunakan metode Log Pearson III : dapat diterima (Dmax < Do)