Population

Q 1. Highlight the fundamental reasons behind the rising population in India during
the late 20th century to early 21st century. Also, discuss the impact of rapid
population growth on society and development in India, what are the potential
solutions to address these challenges?

Introduction

According to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)’s State of World

Population 2023 report, India’s population is expected to touch 1.429 billion in 2023,
making it the most populous country in the world. This number is expected to be
2.96 million more than the population of China.

During the decades between 1960s and 2000s, India experienced decadal population
growth of over 20%. This period is therefore called as the period of population
explosion.

The fundamental reasons behind the population growth in India:

India is in the period of ‘demographic transition’ which is characterized by low death

rates and higher birth rates leading to population explosion. India is influenced by
the following factors that led to rapid population growth:

● Medical Advancements Reducing Death Rate: One of the primary drivers of

population growth is the decrease in the death rate, thanks to remarkable
improvements in medical facilities. India’s Birth rate is 19.5/1000 people and
the Death rate is 6/1000 people as per Economic Survey 2022-23
● Influence of Illiteracy on Family Planning: Widespread illiteracy in major parts
of India perpetuates the belief that "children are god's blessings," leading to
resistance against the concept of family planning. For eg: As per the sample
registration survey for 2020-21, the TFR for Bihar was 3.1, which in the earlier
survey was 3.4.
● Poverty and Large Families: In rural areas, poverty remains prevalent,
compelling families to perceive a larger family size as a means to increase
their income potential. This perspective is rooted in the idea of sending
children to work to augment the family's financial resources.
 ● Infant Mortality Rate Reduction: Improved medical facilities and enhanced
healthcare services have significantly lowered the infant mortality rate. As a
result, more children survive, contributing to the overall population growth.
● Children as Symbols of Prosperity: Superstitions deeply ingrained in Indian
families associate the presence of children with prosperity. This belief
encourages a desire for larger families, further impacting population
dynamics.
● Gender Bias and Son Meta Preference: Within Indian families, the obsession
with having a male child to perpetuate one's lineage is widespread.
Consequently, there is a disproportionate focus on bearing male children,
often leading to an imbalanced sex ratio.
● Urbanization and Opportunities: The process of industrialization and the rise
of opportunities in urban areas attract migration from rural regions,
contributing to the growth of the urban population.
● Prolonged Lifespan through Immunization Programs: The successful control
of epidemics through immunization programs has led to an increase in the
average life expectancy of people. Longer lifespans have a direct impact on
population numbers. In India, vaccination campaigns have increased full
immunization coverage among 12–23-month-old children to 76% in 2019–
2020.

The impact of rapid population growth on society and development in India

1. Poverty:
● Rising population increases poverty in India. People have to spend a large
portion of their resources for bringing up of their wards. It results into less
saving and low rate of capital formation. Hence improvement in production
technique becomes impossible. It means low productivity of labour.
2. Low Standard of Living:
● Rapid growth of population accounts for low standard of living in India.
Even the bare necessities of life are not available adequately. According to
Dr. Chander Shekhar population in India increases by about 1.60 crore. It
requires 121 lakh tonnes of food grains, 1.9 lakh metres of cloth and 2.6
lakh houses and 52 lakh additional jobs.
3. Problem of Unemployment:
● Large size of population results in large army of labour force. But due to
shortage of capital resources it becomes difficult to provide gainful
employment to the entire working population. Disguised unemployment in
 rural areas and open unemployment in urban areas are the normal features
of an under developed country like India
4. Effect on per Capita Income:
● Large size of population in India and its rapid rate of growth results into low
per capita availability of capital. From 1950-51 to 1980-81. India’s national
income grew at an average annual rate of 3.6 percent per annum. But per
capita income had risen around one percent. It is due the fact that
population growth has increased by 2.5 percent.
5. Effect on Food Security:
● Rapid rate of growth of population has been the root cause of the issues of
food security.
6. Elder concerns:
● Last year, India's aging population stood at 138 million and a report
prepared by the National Statistical Office projected that the number of
people in this demographic would rise to 194 million in 2030 — a 41%
increase over a decade.
● The big concerns on the minds of India's older population include increased
cases of elder abuse, abandonment, loneliness and financial concerns.

Potential Solutions to Address these Challenges

1. Investing in Education and Skill Development: Providing access to education,
skill development, and increased employment opportunities can harness the
potential of the country's youth.
2. Government's Role in Development: The government plays a crucial role in
providing essential services like clean drinking water, housing, electricity, and
healthcare, with the aim of creating a robust economy.
3. Investing in Youth for Demographic Dividend: Focusing on education, health,
and economic opportunities for young people can help India leverage its
demographic dividend.
4. Forward-Looking Policies: Implementing policies that address population
dynamics, education, healthcare, gender sensitivity, and rights for the younger
generation is crucial.
5. Nutrition and Learning for Children and Adolescents: Investing in the
nutrition and education of children and adolescents is vital for future
development.
6. Empowering Female Workforce: Increasing female workforce participation in
the economy can have a positive impact on development.
 7. Pursuing Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Achieving the SDGs is
essential for a better future on a healthy planet.
8. Training and Education for Productivity: Providing adequate education and
training to the youth can enhance their productivity and contribution to
economic growth.

Conclusion:
India requires forward-looking policy changes in several dimensions to reflect upon
the increasing population and continuously upgrade them to prepare for future
challenges. Further, other than devising a way to reap its demographic dividend,
India must also strengthen its social infrastructure for the vulnerable, poor
population, and invest in various forms of social security measures.

Q 2. India's handling of its demographic dividend will determine whether it rises to

the top of the economic league table by the end of the century or remains at lower
middle-income levels. In this context examine how can India harness its
demographic dividend to achieve sustained economic growth and development.

Introduction
Demographic dividend, as defined by the United Nations Population Fund, is "the
economic growth potential that can result from shifts in a population’s age structure,
mainly when the share of the working-age population is larger than the non-working-
age share of the population".

India's demographic dividend, projected to peak around 2041 with a working-age

population of approximately 59%, offers a unique window of opportunity for
economic growth and development until 2055.

Body:

India’s potential workforce:

● Deloitte's Projections: India's potential workforce is expected to grow from

885 million to 1.08 billion people in the next two decades. This significant
growth will sustain for half a century, ensuring a consistently large workforce.
Deloitte believes that these new workers will be better trained and educated,
 surpassing their existing counterparts. The next 50 years will be an "Indian
summer," transforming the face of global economic power.
● McKinsey & Company’s report, ‘India at Turning Point’ (August 2020),
believes the “trends such as digitisation and automation, shifting supply
chains, urbanisation, rising incomes, and demographic shifts, and a greater
focus on sustainability, health, and safety are accelerating” to “create $2.5
trillion of economic value in 2030 and support 112 million jobs, or about 30%
of the non-farm workforce in 2030.”
● As the pandemic recedes, four pillars are clearly visible that will support
growth in the next decade; the forging of a single national market, an
expansion of industry owing to the renewable-energy shift and a move in
supply chains away from China, continued pre-eminence in IT, and a high-tech
welfare safety-net for the hundreds of millions left behind by all this.”

With the world watching, India stands at the brink of a historic opportunity to
leverage its demographic dividend for sustained economic growth, however, India
may remain at the lower middle-income level trap if adequate steps are not taken.

To achieve sustained economic growth and development India can harness its
demographic dividend as:

1. Upgrading Human Capital:

● Implementing education and skill development programs to enhance
workforce employability in modern sectors.
● Improving access to quality education through infrastructure development,
academic-industry linkages, and technology integration.
● Focusing on occupational and environmental health to ensure a healthy and
productive workforce.
● Addressing poverty to shift focus towards education and skills.

2. Striving Towards Gender Parity:

● Increasing access to higher education for women.
● Ensuring equal pay and safe workplaces.
● Overcoming social barriers like son preference.

3. Handling Migration and Urbanization:

● Developing rural employment opportunities through skill development and
support for micro and small industries.
● Encouraging entrepreneurship to absorb new entrants into the workforce.
 ● Providing adequate facilities for migrant populations, including housing,
education, and healthcare.

4. Policy Measures for Harnessing Demographic Dividend:

● Increasing investment in human development with a focus on nutrition,
early childhood education, and skill development.
● Bridging the gender gap and increasing female labor force participation
through education and targeted measures.
● Enhancing collaboration between industry and academia to provide
relevant training and skills to the workforce.
● Offering industry-relevant career options with multiple entry-exit points
and industry-driven diplomas.
● Ensuring inter-ministerial coordination for strategic planning and
investment.

5. Boosting Health Investments:

● Increase public spending on health to keep pace with economic growth.
● Draft policies promoting health during the demographic dividend for
improved economic productivity.

6. Ensuring Accessible Reproductive Healthcare:

● Provide universal access to high-quality primary education and basic
healthcare.
● Bridge the gap in family planning unmet needs compared to countries like
China and South Korea.

7. Enhancing Female Workforce Participation:

● Increase female workforce participation by offering more opportunities and
skills training.
● Implement gender budgeting, childcare benefits, and tax incentives for
part-time work as successful models from South Korea.

8. Addressing Diversity Between States:

● Recognize the diversity in population aging and economic development
among different states.
● Foster collaboration between states on demographic transition, leveraging
the north-central region's reservoir of India's workforce.

9. New Federal Approach to Governance Reforms:

 ● Establish a federal approach for policy coordination between states on
population issues like migration, aging, skilling, female workforce
participation, and urbanization.
● Facilitate inter-ministerial coordination for strategic planning, investment,
monitoring, and course correction.

Conclusion
By adopting forward-looking policies and investing in its youth, health, and gender
equality, India can effectively harness its demographic dividend to achieve
remarkable economic growth and development. Strategic collaboration between
states and inter-ministerial coordination will play crucial roles in realizing the full
potential of this opportunity.

Q 3. Discuss the need to rethink the current approach of population control

measures in India in light of The United Nations’ World Population Prospects
(WPP), 2022, forecasts of India becoming the most populous country by 2023,
surpassing China.

Introduction
The United Nations’ World Population Prospects (WPP), 2022, says India will be the
most populous country by 2023, surpassing China, with a 140 crore population. This
is four times the population India had at the time of Independence in 1947 (34
crores).

Now, at the third stage of the demographic transition, and experiencing a slowing
growth rate due to constant low mortality and rapidly declining fertility, India has
17.5% of the world’s population. As per the latest WPP, India will reach 150 crore by
2030 and 166 crore by 2050.

Body

Current Approach and challenges associated with it:

● The Emphasis on Women's Fertility Control: The present approach
emphasizes controlling women's fertility rather than improving their health
and reproductive rights. Female sterilization, the primary method used, is
unsafe and irreversible compared to male sterilization or contraceptive use.
 ● Gender Disparities in Forced Family Planning: Forced implementation of
family planning widens gender disparities. The 2-child policy, for instance,
disqualifies many women from leadership positions in panchayats,
exacerbating underrepresentation.
● Barriers to Contraceptive Accessibility: NFHS data reveals that less than half
of married women aged 15-49, or their partners, use modern contraceptives.
Some lack access to these methods.
● Consequences of Female Foeticide: Preference for male children has led to a
significant number of "missing women" in India.
● Abandonment Issue: Uneven availability of abortion services has resulted in
the abandonment of wives and children, particularly daughters.
● Disproportionate Budgetary Allocation: Family planning budgetary
allocations predominantly favor female sterilization.

The above challenges force policymakers to rethink the current approach to

population control measures. The new ways of population control can be:

1. Strengthening Public Health Infrastructure:

● Focus on Healthcare: Instead of forced population control, India should
prioritize strengthening its public health infrastructure to provide better
healthcare services and promote family planning options.
● Addressing Aging Population: Forced control measures can impact the rate
of aging, leading to imbalanced demographics with a rise in older people and
a decline in the young population.

2. Promoting Voluntary Population Control:

● Awareness and Education: Instead of coercion, raising awareness about the
importance of family planning and its benefits can encourage voluntary
population control.
● Access to Contraceptives: Ensuring easy access to a variety of contraceptive
methods empowers individuals to make informed choices about their family
size.

3. Empowering Women:
● Gender Equality: Empowering women with education and economic
opportunities can positively impact family planning decisions and lead to
better population management.

4. Addressing Access to Family Planning:

 ● Population policy should focus on providing more spacing methods, which
are long-lasting and effective.
● Access to family planning varies based on location, wealth quintile, and age,
with younger girls having the least access, leading to high teenage
pregnancies.

5. Kerala and Tamil Nadu's Success without Coercion:

● States like Kerala and Tamil Nadu have achieved a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of
2 without resorting to coercive population control measures.
● Their success serves as evidence that effective population management can
be achieved through voluntary means.

6. Empowerment Through Education: Increasing the age of marriage and

promoting education for girls is crucial for their empowerment and growth.

7. Focus on Demographic Dividend:

● India is poised at a unique moment in history, where it can exploit its
demographic advantage to realise its economic goals.
● According to the government’s population projections, 53.6% of India’s
population in 2021 is under the age of 29. More than a quarter of India’s
population is 14 years or younger.

Conclusion:
The present TFR (2.0) of India has already reached below replacement rate (2.1),
therefore, instead of using the law to control or stabilize the population, the country
should focus more on empowering women and bringing gender equity. Such efforts
not only stabilize the population but also improve the quality of the population,
which can help in reaping greater economic dividends.
Q 4. How can the government leverage the demographic shift and prepare for the
changing age composition to ensure sustainable economic growth? Highlighting
this shift, discuss the challenges that it will pose. Also, suggest remedial measures.

Introduction

Data from recent National Family Health Surveys and other reports have signalled a
monumental shift in Indian demographics. India entered the demographic dividend
opportunity window in 2005-06 and will remain there till 2055-56. According to
Economic Survey 2018-19, India’s Demographic Dividend will peak around 2041,
when the share of working-age, i.e. 20-59 years, population is expected to hit 59%.
which offers great potential for India’s economic growth.

Body:

Some of the features of this demographic shift are as follows:

Shift in Demographics:
1. TFR Below Replacement Rate: Total Fertility Rate (TFR) at 2 (NFHS-5), below
the replacement rate of 2.1, indicating declining population growth.
2. Inverted Population Pyramid: The number of youth declining, with the
population pyramid inverting for the first time.
3. Changing Age Composition:
● Youth Population Decline: Share of 0-19 years projected to drop from
41% (2011) to 25% by 2041 (Economic Survey).
● Rising Elderly Population: Share of elderly (60 years and above) to nearly
double from 8.6% (2011) to 16% by 2041.
● Demographic Dividend Peak: Working-age population (20-59 years)
expected to reach 59% by 2041, marking demographic dividend peak.

Challenges Faced:

1. Resource Crunch: Jobless growth and slowing economy limiting resource

mobilization, straining existing resources.
2. Elderly Care: Limited inpatient geriatric care facilities, expensive old-age
homes, and inadequate primary care for the elderly.
3. Loss of Demographic Dividend: Shrinking young population leading to an
increased burden on the state and economy.
 4. Feminization in Older Age Groups: Increasing feminization in older age groups
poses unique healthcare and economic challenges.

Measures to be Taken:

1. Decentralized Development: State-specific social policies to accommodate

different population growth rates.
2. Boosting Women's Workforce Participation: Raising women's participation in
the labor force can significantly impact GDP growth.
3. Strengthening Social Security: Incentivize retirement savings and
investments, focusing on the informal sector.
4. Policy Changes: Consider increasing the retirement age to adapt to changing
demographics.

Leveraging Demographic Dividend:

● Investment in Human Capital: Efficiently invest in the development of human
resources to harness the demographic dividend.
● Preparing for the Future: Utilize demographic dividend to narrow economic
and social gaps and foster national growth.

Conclusion

The data from recent National Family Health Surveys and other reports highlights a
monumental shift in Indian demographics. The declining Total Fertility Rate and the
inverting population pyramid indicate a significant change in age composition, with a
shrinking youth population and a rising elderly demographic. These demographic
changes pose challenges such as resource crunch, elderly care, and the risk of losing
the demographic dividend. To address these challenges, state-specific social policies,
empowering women in the workforce, strengthening social security, and considering
policy changes like increasing the retirement age are crucial steps. Leveraging the
demographic dividend through investment in human capital and strategic planning
will pave the way for inclusive growth and a prosperous future.
Q 5. What are the causes and societal impacts of migration, and how can India
ensure inclusive growth and sustainable development while addressing the impacts
of migration?

Introduction

The International Organization for Migration defines a migrant as an individual who

crosses an international border or moves within a state, departing from their
habitual place of residence. As per the MOSPI data, The all-India migration rate was
28.9% for July 2020-June 2021, with a 26.5 % migration rate in rural areas and 34.9%
in urban areas.

Females recorded a higher share of migration rate of 47.9%; 48% in rural and 47.8%
in urban areas. The migration rate for males was 10.7%, with 5.9% in rural and 22.5%
in urban areas.

Body:
Migration can be driven by economic compulsions, such as unemployment and
poverty, but it also arises from social factors, as explored below:

1. Backwardness as a Push Factor: Discrimination based on caste in rural areas

and regressive gender attitudes in small towns are examples of factors that
push people to leave their places of origin.
2. Pull Factors of Cities: Cities attract migrants with better living conditions,
improved healthcare facilities, and greater social freedoms.
3. Displacement due to Violence: Instances of terrorism or riots force people to
seek safer havens, like the migration of Kashmiri Pandits due to terrorism.
4. Marriage: Internal migration is often linked to marriage, with many individuals
moving from one rural area to another for this reason.
5. Environmental Factors: Factors such as soil infertility, water scarcity, and
floods can drive people to migrate. Conversely, "reverse migration" may occur
in response to urban pollution, leading to settlement in the outskirts or
hinterland.

Impact of Migration on Rural Society

Migration has diverse effects on rural communities, including both positive and
negative aspects:
1. Positive Impact:
● Boost to Rural Development: Remittances from migrants contribute to the
development of rural areas and bridge regional divides.
● Empowerment of Women in Agriculture: Migration leads to the feminization
of agriculture, resulting in greater female participation in the rural economy.
● Key Role in Food Production: Migrant labor plays a crucial role in food
production, such as paddy cultivation in states like Punjab and Haryana.

2. Negative Impact:
● Weakening of Social Bonds: Lower interaction and infrequent visits among
migrants lead to weaker social bonds and kinship ties.
● Underpaid Women Laborers: Female farm laborers often face underpayment,
limited land ownership, and reduced income.
● Creation of Ghost Villages: Some areas experience a mass exodus of
households due to migration, particularly in hilly regions with limited
economic opportunities.
● Reduced Political Participation: Outmigration can result in reduced political
engagement and participation in elections.

Impact of Migration on Urban Society

The Census of 2011 counted 450 million internal migrants, of whom 78 million, or
15.6 percent, were rural-to-urban migrants. More than half, 55 percent, of those
who moved from rural to urban areas were women.

1. Positive Impact:
● Urbanization: Migration contributes to urbanization, making everyone a
migrant in a city setting.
● Cultural Diversity: Cities become cosmopolitan and multicultural due to the
influx of migrants from diverse backgrounds.
● Improved Living Standards: The provision of services sustained by migrants
enhances the overall quality of life in cities.
● Hubs of Innovation and Entrepreneurship: Migration fosters an environment
where ideas, innovation, and entrepreneurship thrive.

2. Negative Impact:
● Population Pressure on Cities: Migration can create population pressure in
cities, leading to issues like slums, high rents, and strain on healthcare
infrastructure.
 ● Environmental Challenges: Vehicular pollution, untreated sewage, and
polluted water bodies reduce the overall environmental quality in cities.
● Insider vs. Outsider Conflict: Tensions may arise between long-time residents
and newcomers, resulting in conflicts over resources and demands for
migration limits.
● Erosion of Cultural Identity: In some cases, migration can lead to the loss of
cultural identity, as seen in opposition to the use of Hindi in Bengaluru Metro.

Migration for Inclusive Growth and Sustainable Development:

1. The shift from Numerical Data Collection to Thematic Approach:

● Embrace a thematic method to create a panchayat-wise operatable/functional
data bank of migrant workers.
● This approach will provide deeper insights into their specific needs and
challenges, enabling more targeted interventions.

2. Government Decisions Grounded in Rights-Based Principles:

● Ensure that government decisions concerning the health, employment,
cultural life, and social situation of migrant workers are firmly based on rights-
based principles.
● Upholding human rights should be a guiding factor in shaping policies and
initiatives.

3. Collaboration with Origin States for Access to Justice:

● Establish mechanisms in collaboration with the states from which the laborers
originate to enhance access to justice for migrant workers.
● This collaboration can address legal issues and provide a support network for
workers.

4. Promoting Awareness of Rights and Legal Remedies:

● Educate migrant workers about their rights and the available legal remedies to
empower them to assert their rights.
● Information dissemination and awareness campaigns can play a significant
role in this regard.

5. Initiatives for Social Integration and Cultural Exchange:

● Implement initiatives similar to global efforts that promote cultural exchange,
community engagement, and mutual understanding.
● These initiatives will foster social integration of migrant workers into the local
community.
6. Multi-Stakeholder Policy and Monitoring Dialogues:
● Encourage multi-stakeholder dialogues to ensure the rights and welfare of
migrant workers are safeguarded.
● Involving various stakeholders can lead to more comprehensive and effective
policies.

7. Comprehensive Vision for Sustainable Workers' Human Rights:

● Give priority to establishing a comprehensive vision for sustainable workers'
human rights, in line with global instruments like the Global Compact on
Migration (GCM).
● Such a vision will provide a framework for protecting the rights of migrant
populations in India.

Population keywords
1. Demographic transition
2. Replacement level of total fertility rate (2.1)
3. Demographic dividend, working age population, dependency ratio
4. Population Ageing
5. Middle-income level trap
6. Family Planning
7. Population Education
8. Son-meta preference and Missing women
9. Jobless growth
10. Feminization of old age
11. Human Capital Formation
12. Push and Pull Factors of Migration
UPSC Mains Previous Year Questions

1. Discuss the main objectives of population education and point out the
measure to achieve them in India in detail. (250 words) (2021) 15

2. “Empowering women is the key to control population growth”. Discuss (150

words) (2019) 10

3. Population and associated issues: Poverty and developmental issues, COVID-

19 pandemic accelerated class inequalities and poverty in India. Comment.
(2020) 10

4. Critically examine whether growing population is the cause of poverty OR

poverty is the main cause of population increase in India. (2015) 12.5

5. “Demographic Dividend in India will remain only theoretical unless our

manpower becomes more educated, aware, skilled and creative.” What
measures have been taken by the government to enhance the capacity of our
population to be more productive and employable? (2016) 12.5