Promoting Renewable Energy in Maharashtra

Department of Energy Science and Engineering IIT Bombay

Presentation to Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission, November 10, 2009

India-Renewable Installed Capacity trend

12000 10000

Installed Capacity

8000

6000

4000

2000

0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Year 2002 2004 2006 2008

India-Renewable Share in Power

9.0 8.0 7.0 Share of Renewabales (%) 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2001
Renewable Renewable Installed generation Nuclear generation Capacity Renewable installed capacity

Renewable Generation Nuclear Generation

2002

2003

2004 Ye a r

2005

2006

2007

Renewable Energy (2008) Installed Capacity

India
Wind Power Small Hydro Biomass Power Solar PV (grid) Geothermal Power Solar Thermal Power (CSP) Total renewable power Solar Water heater 9.66 GW 2.0 GW 8.0 GW 3 MW 0 0 13 GW 1.7 GW (th) (2.4 million m2)

Maharashtra
1.95 GW 0.2 GW 0.35 GW 0 0 0 2.5 GW Not known

Source: REN21 Renewables Global Status Report-2009 Update

India Renewable installed capacity and generation

Installed Capacity* Estimated Estimated (MW) Capacity factor Generation (GWh) Wind Biomass Power Biomass Gasifier Bagasse Cogeneration Small Hydro Waste to Energy Solar PV Total
7845 606 86 720 2046 55 2.74 11360
*as on Jan 1, 2008

14% 70% 60% 60% 40% 50% 20% 25%

9621 3185 527 3784 7169 241 5 24380

Maharashtra Renewable installed capacity and generation

Installed Capacity Estimated Estimated (MW) Capacity factor Generation (GWh) Wind Biomass Power Bagasse Cogeneration Small Hydro Waste to Energy Solar PV Total
1948 95 262 211 6.1 2522
*in 2009

14% 70% 60% 40% 50% 20% 25%

2389 582 1377 924 37.4 5310

Solar resource

Area 26.8 km x 26.8 km Nagpur district Solar insolation 1800 kWh/m2/year 20% capacity factor, plant efficiency 20% 150000 MU annual generation

Renewable Energy Issues

Energy Security Energy Access Local and Global Emissions Marginal to Mainstream Incentives for Investors/ Technology Developers Impact on cost of supply to consumers Long term capability development Employment potential Level playing field between technologies

Renewable Energy Policies

Capital Subsidy Tax Benefits (accelerated depreciation) Preferential Tariffs (feed-in) technology differentiated, performance based incentives Renewable Portfolio Standards Renewable Energy Certificates

Power Generation Options

Power Generation

Centralised Grid Connected

Decentralised Distributed Generation Isolated Demand Side Management (Solar Water Heater, Passive Solar)

Cogeneration/Trigeneration

Renewable Energy Certificates

#1 Does it provide stable signals to investors? #2 Does it promote renewable energy in the state? #3 How do we differentiate between different technologies ? Do we have multiplication factors based on technology type/ status? #4 How do we prevent gaming? Can we ensure validation? Monitoring and verification? #5 Can we extend to smaller grid connected systems? (e.g BIPV) #6 Solar Water Heaters as Deemed Generation?

#1

Variability in REC price (Australia)

250 p/kWh

50 p/kWh

Source: http://www.greenenergytrading.com.au/how-are-recs-priced.html

#1

Variability in REC price (Sweden)

150 p/kWh

90 p/kWh

Source:InfralineEnergy Report on REC - October 2009

#1

Variability of ROCs in UK
400 p/kWh 300 p/kWh

Source: http://www.e-roc.co.uk/trackrecord.htm

#1

Sample REC rates

UK Price Range of REC ($/MWh) Rs/kWh Multiplication Factor Based on Technology Starting year Penalty/Buyout $/MWh
+Instantaneous values

AUSTRALIA 11 49 0.5 2.3 YES 2001 27

SWEDEN 14.6 36.4 0.7 1.7 NA 2003 -

ITALY 123 195 5.7 9.0 YES 2001 -

63-86 2.9 4.0 YES 2002 65

Source: http://www.e-roc.co.uk/trackrecord.htm InfralineEnergy Report on REC - October 2009 http://www.greenenergytrading.com.au/how-are-recs-priced.html Renewable Energy Country Profiles, Report February 2008.

#3

Multiplication Factor

Source: Renewable Energy Country Profiles, Report February 2008. The UK Renewable Energy Strategy July 2009

#5,6

Available RECs in Australia in 2009 for Trade

Others 2% Landfill Gas 5% Wind 26%

Total available 10 million RECs

Bagasse + Black Liquor 4%

Solar (Water Heater +PV) 62%

Food Waste + Wood Waste 1%

Source: https://www.rec-registry.gov.au/getSearchPublicRecHoldings.shtml

Framework for Potential Estimation of Solar Water Heating #6 Systems in a Country

Country details (Area, Average Weather Data) Locations where weather data available Weather data Identification of sectors and classification within each sector End use details for each sub-class Weather data End use details Selection of base city Methodology for potential estimation for a target area Potential of SWHS in base city Identification of variables for a different location Potential of SWHS in different location Potential of SWHS in nearby area where Spatial weather data is not Interpolation available location Locations where weather data unavailable

Aggregation for all the locations Potential of SWHS in the country Technical potential Electricity savings

#6

Diffusion of SWH
Solar Water Heating Capacity (collector area in million sq. m.).. 300 250
Actual installed (million sq. m.) Potential 140 million sq. m. Potential 60 million sq. m. Potential 200 million sq. m. Extrapolated Potential (million sq.m.)
Po te n tial = 200 m illio n 2m

Estimate d Potential in 2092 = 199 million m

2

200
Po te n tial = 140 m illio n 2m

150

100

Po te n tial = 60 m illio n 2m

50

0 1990

2010

2030

2050 Year

2070

2090

Model for Potential Estimation of Target Area

Single end use point

#6

Target area Weather data, area details

Identification and Classification of different end uses by sector (i) Residential (1) Classification based on factors* (j) Sub-class (i, j) Single end use point Potential No. of end use points Technical Potential Market Potential Constraint: market acceptance Potential Potential for i = 2 for i = 3 Potential Potential for i = 4 for i = 5 Hospital (2) Nursing Homes (3) Hotels (4) Others (5)

Micro simulation using TRNSYS Hot water Weather usage pattern data SIMULATION Auxiliary heating requirement Capacity of Target SWHS Auxiliary (Collector area) heating SWHS capacity Base load for heating Technical Potential
Constraint: roof area availability

Economic Potential Economic Constraint

Electricity/ fuel savings Price of electricity Investment for SWHS Economic viability

Potential for end use sector (i = 1)

POTENTIAL OF SWHS IN TARGET AREA Technical Potential (m2 of collector area) Economic Potential (m2 of collector area) Market Potential (m2 of collector area) Energy Savings Potential (kWh/year) Load Shaving Potential (kWh/ hour for a monthly average day) * Factors affecting the adoption/sizing of solar water heating systems

Load Curve Representing Energy Requirement for Water Heating

1000 900 800

#6

Typical day of January Typical day of M ay

Total Consumption =14300 MWh/day

Energy Consumption (MW)

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 2 4 6 8 10

53%

Total Consumption = 13900 MWh/day

Total Consumption =760 MWh/day Total Consumption = 390 MWh/day

Hour of day

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Total Electricity Consumption of Pune Electricity Consumption for water heating of Pune

RECs (California) Vs FiT (Germany) Comparison

California enjoys 50% more sunshine But Germany installed 10 time solar than California

Source: FiT for America

Feed in tariffs Vs RECs

Price Variability Feed in Tariff Low Incentive to Investor High Market Driven No Trade across states Exchange Possible Comments Within State development Differentiation between technologies Gamingposible

Renewable Energy Certificate

High

Medium (Uncertain)

High

High

Mainstreaming of renewables
#1 Technology Development and Research challenge -Cost Reduction challenge #2 System Integration/ System Planning challenge Need for better methods for potential estimation, Impact on rest of grid #3 Sustainability- Land, Water, Materials, Emissions

Diffusion Curves for wind energy

50000
Potential = 45000MW

#2

Installed Capacity (MW)

40000

30000

dP P( L P) dt

a2

20000

P=
10000

L 1 + Ae Bt

am Actual Installation D iffusion curve U pper lim of uncertainity it Lower lim of uncertainity it F orecast Values by M R NE 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

a1

0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Y r ea

Year

Projection by MNRE

Projection by diffusion curve

Values in the uncertainty limit of 5% Lower limit Higher limit 24800 39600 44800

2007 2012 2022

7000 17500 40000

8700 23000 42900

2000 5800 27400

Wind Diffusion

#2

#2

Tamil Nadu Grid Details

Source Installed capacity (MW) 2970 424 2187 2825 3856 556 Annual Energy Annual average generated capacity (MU) factor (%) 21230 1945 6290 17785 5270 1220 81.6 52.4 32.8 71.9 18.6 25.1

Coal Gas Hydro Firm central share# Wind (state + private) Other renewables (solar PV, biomass and Bagasse based cogeneration) Independent power projects (coal, lignite, diesel or gas based) Assistance from other regional grids Total

1180

6360

61.5

519 14517

2280 63370

50.1 49.8

#2

TN Installed wind power and wind energy generated

2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 0 4 8 12 16 20

1200 1000 Wind energy generated (MU) 800

Hourly variation of wind power

January

Power generated in MW

#2

June

September

24

Hours

Monthly variation of wind energy generated

600 400 200 0 JAN

Mean value

FEB MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL Months

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV DEC

Impacts on LDC

#2

Summing up

Long term capability development, employment potential for Maharashtra Level playing field between technologies New technologies, cofiring, hybrids, technologies at different stages of development Local and Global Emissions Sustainability Area, materials, water Marginal to Mainstream System integration and planning issues, need for new methodologies Policies to foster cost effective renewable for future

Rangan Banerjee (rangan@iitb.ac.in) Suryanarayana Doolla (suryad@iitb.ac.in) Anuradda Ganesh (aganesh@iitb.ac.in)

Thank you

References

Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), Annual Reports, 2001-2009 Pillai and Banerjee, Solar Energy, 81, pp. 162-172, 2006. Pillai and Banerjee, Energy, 34, pp. 970-980, 2009. George and Banerjee, Energy Policy, 37, pp. 3693-3700, 2009. Mohit Goyal and Rakesh Jha, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 13 (2009) 13951405 Anoop Singh, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 13 (2009) 643652 W. H. Rickerson, J. L. Sawin, R. C. Grace, The Electrical Journal, Vol. 20, Issue 4, May 2007 InfralineEnergy Report on REC - October 2009 FiT for America A Report by Greener Dawn Corporation, USA, September 2009. D Fouquet, T. B. Johansson, Energy Policy 36 (2008). Renewable Energy Country Profiles, Report February 2008.

References

The UK Renewable Energy Strategy July 2009 Summary maps on http://dsireusa.org National Action Plan on Climate Change, GOI, 2009 Renewable Energy Global Status Report, 2009 Update, REN21 Draft discussion paper on Development of Renewable Energy Framework For Maharashtra for New control period (FY2010-11 to FY 2014-15) ABPS Infra, October 2009 . http://www.greenenergytrading.com.au/how-are-recs-priced.html http://www.renewableenergyfocus.com/view/4914/australian-renewableenergy-crisis-as-rec-price-dives/ 8-November 2009 http://www.mercatoelettrico.org/En/Default.aspx http://www.e-roc.co.uk/trackrecord.htm http://www.powercapital.eu/PowerCMS/Publications/Opinion/Banding--Green-Certificates--Renewable-changes-in.aspx https://www.rec-registry.gov.au/getSearchPublicRecHoldings.shtml