Probability Theory

Probability Theory
Probability theory had its root in the 16th century when J. Cardan, an Italian mathematician and
physician, addressed the first work on the topic, The Book on Games of Chance. After its
inception, the knowledge of probability has brought to the attention of great mathematicians.
Thus, Probability theory is the branch of mathematics that deals with the possibility of the
happening of events. Although there are many distinct probability interpretations, probability
theory interprets the concept precisely by expressing it through a set of axioms or hypotheses.
These hypotheses help form the probability in terms of a possibility space, which allows a
measure holding values between 0 and 1. This is known as the probability measure, to a set of
possible outcomes of the sample space.
Probability Density Function
The Probability Density Function (PDF) is the probability function which is represented for the
density of a continuous random variable lying between a certain range of values. Probability
Density Function explains the normal distribution and how mean and deviation exists.
The standard normal distribution is used to create a database or statistics, which are often used in
science to represent the real-valued variables, whose distribution is not known.
Probability Terms and Definition
Some of the important probability terms are discussed here:
Term Definition Example
Sample Space The set of all the possible outcomes to 1. Tossing a coin, Sample Space (S)
occur in any trial = {H,T}
2. Rolling a die, Sample Space (S) =
{1,2,3,4,5,6}
Sample Point It is one of the possible results In a deck of Cards:
 4 of hearts is a sample point.

 The queen of clubs is a sample
point.
Term Definition Example
Experiment or A series of actions where the outcomes are The tossing of a coin, Selecting a card
Trial always uncertain. from a deck of cards, throwing a dice.
Event It is a single outcome of an experiment. Getting a Heads while tossing a coin is an

event.
Outcome Possible result of a trial/experiment T (tail) is a possible outcome when a coin

is tossed.
Complimentary The non-happening events. The In a standard 52-card deck, A = Draw a

event complement of an event A is the event, not heart, then A’ = Don’t draw a heart
A (or A’)
Impossible Event The event cannot happen In tossing a coin, impossible to get both
head and tail at the same time
Applications of Probability
Probability has a wide variety of applications in real life. Some of the common applications which
we see in our everyday life while checking the results of the following events:
 Choosing a card from the deck of cards

 Flipping a coin
 Throwing a dice in the air
 Pulling a red ball out of a bucket of red and white balls
 Winning a lucky draw
Other Major Applications of Probability
 It is used for risk assessment and modelling in various industries

 Weather forecasting or prediction of weather changes
 Probability of a team winning in a sport based on players and strength of team
 In the share market, chances of getting the hike of share prices
Problems and Solutions on Probability
Question 1: Find the probability of ‘getting 3 on rolling a die’.
Solution:
Sample Space = S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Total number of outcomes = n(S) = 6
Let A be the event of getting 3.
Number of favourable outcomes = n(A) = 1
i.e. A = {3}
Probability, P(A) = n(A)/n(S) = 1/6
Hence, P(getting 3 on rolling a die) = 1/6
Question 2: Draw a random card from a pack of cards. What is the probability that the card
drawn is a face card? If the favorable events is 4.
Solution:
A standard deck has 52 cards.
Total number of outcomes = n(S) = 52
Let E be the event of drawing a face card.
Number of favourable events = n(E) = 4 x 3 = 12 (considered Jack, Queen and King only)
Probability, P = Number of Favourable Outcomes/Total Number of Outcomes
P(E) = n(E)/n(S)
= 12/52
= 3/13
P(the card drawn is a face card) = 3/13
Question 3: A vessel contains 4 blue balls, 5 red balls and 11 white balls. If three balls are
drawn from the vessel at random, what is the probability that the first ball is red, the second
ball is blue, and the third ball is white?
Solution:
Given,
The probability to get the first ball is red or the first event is 5/20.
Since we have drawn a ball for the first event to occur, then the number of possibilities left for the
second event to occur is 20 – 1 = 19.
Hence, the probability of getting the second ball as blue or the second event is 4/19.
Again with the first and second event occurring, the number of possibilities left for the third event
to occur is 19 – 1 = 18.
And the probability of the third ball is white or the third event is 11/18.
Therefore, the probability is 5/20 x 4/19 x 11/18 = 44/1368 = 0.032.
Or we can express it as: P = 3.2%.
Question 4: Two dice are rolled, find the probability that the sum is:
1. equal to 1
2. equal to 4
3. less than 13
Solution:
To find the probability that the sum is equal to 1 we have to first determine the sample space S of
two dice as shown below.
S = { (1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(1,5),(1,6)
(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(2,4),(2,5),(2,6)
(3,1),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(3,5),(3,6)
(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),(4,4),(4,5),(4,6)
(5,1),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6)
(6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(6,6) }
So, n(S) = 36
1) Let E be the event “sum equal to 1”. Since, there are no outcomes which where a sum is equal
to 1, hence,
P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 0 / 36 = 0
2) Let A be the event of getting the sum of numbers on dice equal to 4.
Three possible outcomes give a sum equal to 4 they are:
A = {(1,3),(2,2),(3,1)}
n(A) = 3
Hence, P(A) = n(A) / n(S) = 3 / 36 = 1 / 12
3) Let B be the event of getting the sum of numbers on dice is less than 13.
From the sample space, we can see all possible outcomes for the event B, which gives a sum less
than B. Like:
(1,1) or (1,6) or (2,6) or (6,6).
So you can see the limit of an event to occur is when both dies have number 6, i.e. (6,6).
Thus, n(B) = 36
Hence,
P(B) = n(B) / n(S) = 36 / 36 = 1

Probability Theory

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Probability Theory

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Probability Theory

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Probability Theory

Probability Density Function

Probability Terms and Definition

Some of the important probability terms are discussed here:

Term Definition Example

 4 of hearts is a sample point.

Event It is a single outcome of an experiment. Getting a Heads while tossing a coin is an

Outcome Possible result of a trial/experiment T (tail) is a possible outcome when a coin

Complimentary The non-happening events. The In a standard 52-card deck, A = Draw a

 Choosing a card from the deck of cards

Other Major Applications of Probability

 It is used for risk assessment and modelling in various industries

Problems and Solutions on Probability

Question 1: Find the probability of ‘getting 3 on rolling a die’.

Sample Space = S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Total number of outcomes = n(S) = 6

Let A be the event of getting 3.

Number of favourable outcomes = n(A) = 1

Probability, P(A) = n(A)/n(S) = 1/6

Hence, P(getting 3 on rolling a die) = 1/6

A standard deck has 52 cards.

Total number of outcomes = n(S) = 52

Let E be the event of drawing a face card.

Probability, P = Number of Favourable Outcomes/Total Number of Outcomes

P(the card drawn is a face card) = 3/13

Therefore, the probability is 5/20 x 4/19 x 11/18 = 44/1368 = 0.032.

Or we can express it as: P = 3.2%.

You might also like