Government of India

Earth System Science Organization

Ministry of Earth Sciences
India Meteorological Department

Press Release: Dated: 31st Oct, 2024

Subject: Current Weather Status and Extended range Forecast for next two weeks (31st
Oct-13 Nov, 2024)

1. Salient Observed Features for week ending 30th Oct, 2024

• Severe Cyclonic Storm “DANA” over Bay of Bengal (23rd – 25th October, 2024) crossed
North Odisha Coast: Last week’s Cyclonic Storm “DANA” (pronounced as Dana) over
northwest & adjoining central Bay of Bengal lay over northwest Bay of Bengal, near latitude
18.9° N and longitude 88.0°E, about 210 km southeast of Paradip (Odisha), 240 km south-
southeast of Dhamara (Odisha) and 310 km south of Sagar Island (West Bengal) in the morning
at 0830 hrs IST the 24th October. It crossed north Odisha coast close to Habalikhati Nature
Camp (Bhitarkanika) and Dhamara during 0130 hrs IST to 0330 hrs IST of 25th October as a
Severe Cyclonic Storm with a wind speed of 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph. It weakened
into a Cyclonic Storm over north coastal Odisha and lay near latitude 21.20°N and longitude
86.70°E about 30 km northeast of Bhadrak and 50 km northnorthwest of Dhamara at 0830 hrs
IST of 25th October. It further weakened into a Deep Depression over North Coastal Odisha
near latitude 21.4° N and longitude 86.4°E, about 40 km north-northwest of Bhadrak at 1430
hrs IST of 25th October, into a Depression over north Odisha in the evening (1730 hours IST)
of 25th October and further weakened into a Well-Marked Low Pressure area over the same
region in the morning (0530 hours IST) of 26th October. The low pressure area became less
marked over north Odisha at 0530 IST of 27th October. However, its remnant lay as a cyclonic
circulation over north Odisha extended upto 5.8 km above mean sea level on morning of 27th
Oct and over south Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh coast, extended upto 5.8 km

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 above mean sea level tilting southwestwards with height on morning of 28th Oct; over south
Chhattisgarh & adjoining Odisha extended upto 5.8 km above mean sea level tilting
southwards with height on 29th October and became less marked on 30th October.
• Under the influence of this system, very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall was observed at isolated
places over Odisha on 25th & 26th October. Heavy to very heavy rainfall was observed over Gangetic
West Bengal on 25th & 26th October, Jharkhand on 26th October. Extremely heavy rainfall was
observed at isolated places over Odisha on 26th October. Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall was observed
at isolated places over Odisha on 25th, 28 to 30 October; Gangetic West Bengal on 25th and 26th October;
Coastal Andhra Pradesh on 28th October; Odisha on 25th October and Coastal Andhra Pradesh on 28th
October.
• Very Heavy Rainfall was observed at isolated places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal on 24th
and 25th October; Kerala & Mahe on 24th and 27th October; Heavy Rainfall observed at isolated places
over Bihar, Jharkhand on 24th October; Kerala & Mahe, Coastal Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry
& Karaikal, Kerala & Mahe, Jharkhand on 26th October; Lakshadweep and Sub-Himalayan West
Bengal on 27th October; Konkan & Goa on 29th October; Tamil Nadu on 30th October.
• Minimum temperature was above normal by 2-5ºC over northern parts of the country during this
week. Maximum temperature was above normal by 1-3ºC over northwest and northern India, and
normal to below normal over east and northeast India during this week. During the 2nd half of the
week, Maximum & Minimum Temperatures were above normal by 3-7℃ over Northwest India.
Minimum Temperatures were above normal by 3-5℃ over parts of Central and Eastern India
• Analysis of weekly overall rainfall distribution during the week ending on 30th Oct
and Post-monsoon Season’s Rainfall Scenario (01st to 30th Oct, 2024): The country as
a whole, the weekly cumulative All India Rainfall in % departure from its long period
average (LPA) is -13%. All India Seasonal cumulative rainfall % departure during this
year’s post-monsoon Season’s Rainfall (01-30th Oct 2024) is 0%. Details of the rainfall
distribution over the four broad geographical regions of India are given in Table 1 and
Meteorological sub-division-wise rainfall both for week and season are given in Annexure
I & II respectively.

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 Table 1: Rainfall status (Week and season)
WEEK SEASON
Region 24.10.2024 TO 30.10.2024 01.10.2024 TO 30.10.2024
Actual Normal % Dep Actual Normal % Dep
East & northeast India 30.0 12.9 +132% 136.6 122.1 +12%
Northwest India 0.1 1.8 -96% 5.2 21.4 -76%
Central India 6.4 6.3 +2% 53.5 56.3 -5%
South Peninsula 12.8 31.8 -60% 168.0 148.2 +13%
Country as a whole 9.5 10.9 -13% 74.4 74.1 0%

2. Large scale features

➢ Currently, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are observed over the
equatorial Pacific Ocean with below average sea surface temperatures in the east
equatorial Pacific Ocean. The probability forecast indicates a higher chance of development
of La Niña conditions during Post-Monsoon season, 2024.
➢ Above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are currently seen across most of the
Indian Ocean. Currently, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions prevail over the
Indian Ocean. The latest MMCFS forecast indicates that the neutral IOD conditions are likely
to continue during post-monsoon season, 2024. Presently, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole
(IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The climate models forecast
indicates that these neutral IOD conditions are likely to continue until the end of the
monsoon season.
➢ The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is currently is currently in phase 7 with amplitude
greater than 1. It would move across phases 7 and 8 with amplitude remaining more than 1 during
week 1. Thereafter, it would move across phases 1 and 2 during week 2 with amplitude becoming
less than 1. Thus, MJO would support enhancement of convective activity over the Arabian Sea
during week 2.

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3. Forecast for next two week
Weather systems & associated Precipitation during Week 1 (31st Oct-6 Nov, 2024) and
Week 2 (7-13 Nov, 2024)
Salient features:
• Northeast Monsoon likely to continue remain normal to below normal over south peninsular
India during week 1 with Significant improvement of the rainfall activities during Week 2.
During Week 2, it is likely to be normal to above normal rainfall over the same area.
• There is likelihood of formation of a trough of low over south BoB during week 1
with formation of a Low Pressure Area over southwest BoB towards the end of week
1. There is also low probability of its intensification into a depression over southwest
BoB off Tamil Nadu coast during first half of week 2. Under its influence, a fresh spell of
Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall likely over Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema and Kerala during
7-11 Nov.
• Temperature likely to continue remain above normal over many parts of North West India,
Central and eastern India during week 1 with slight fall during week 2.
• A feeble WD is likely impact WHR and adjoining planes with a light isolated rain/ Snow
during week 2 (7-11 Nov).

Weather systems & associated Precipitation during Week 1 (31st Oct-6 Nov, 2024)

Weather Systems:
❖ A cyclonic circulation lies over Gulf of Mannar in lower tropospheric levels.
❖ An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over southwest Bay of Bengal off south Andhra
Pradesh in lower & middle tropospheric levels.
❖ Another upper air cyclonic circulation lies over northeast Assam in lower tropospheric
levels.
❖ There is likelihood of formation of a trough of low over south BoB during week 1
with formation of a Low Pressure Area over southwest BoB towards the end of week
1.

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Forecast & Warnings:
✓ Light to moderate rainfall at a few places accompanied with isolated thunderstorm and
lightning very likely over Kerala & Mahe during 31st October-04th November, Tamil Nadu,
Puducherry & Karaikal during 31st October-03rd November and Karnataka during 31st
October-02nd November; Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Rayalaseema and Telangana
on 31st October & 01st November, Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada
on 31st October & 01st November.
✓ Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall also very likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry &
Karaikal and Kerala & Mahe on 01st November.
✓ Isolated heavy rainfall also very likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal during
31st October-02nd November; Kerala & Mahe during 31st October-03rd November and South
Interior Karnataka on 31st October-02nd November.
ii. Forecast of temperature

✓ The above normal Temperature tendency over Northwest India and parts of Central
India is likely to continue during next one week.

Rainfall and Temperature Forecast for week 2 (7-13 Nov, 2024):

❖There is likelihood of a Low Pressure Area over southwest BoB towards the end of
week 1. There is also low probability of its intensification into a depression over
southwest BoB off Tamil Nadu coast during first half of week 2. Under its influence,
a fresh spell of Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall likely over Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema
and Kerala during 7-11 Nov.
❖ A feeble WD is likely impact WHR and adjoining planes with a light isolated rain/ Snow
during week 2 (7-11 Nov).
❖ Overall, rainfall is likely to be normal to above normal southeast Peninsular India and
Kashmir and normal over rest of the country.
❖ Temperature likely to fall slightly in most parts of India during week 2.

Legends: Heavy Rain: 64.5 to 115.5 mm Very Heavy Rain: 115.6 to 204.4 mm,
Extremely Heavy Rain> 204.4 mm

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Annexure I

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Annexure II

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 Annexure III

Extended range forecast of weekly distribution of rainfall in mm per day (top panel) and
anomalies (lower panel) from IMD MME

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 Annexure IV

Extended range forecast of weekly distribution of Temperature in DegC (top panel) and
anomalies (lower panel) from IMD Bias Corrected Forecast

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