Chapter 2

Estimation of Water Power Potential

Estimation Water Power Potential…
▪ Water at high pressure or flowing with a high velocity can be used to run the
turbine for the generation of electrical power.
 Hydraulic and Hydrological Analysis of Hydropower…
Hydraulic Theory
Considering hydraulic theory in hydropower engineering, it is important to relate
the concept of power to the fundamental variables of head and discharge.
Energy-Work Approach
Effective head (h) is the difference
between energy head at the entrance
to the turbine and the energy head at
the exit of the draft tube
 Hydraulic and Hydrological Analysis of Hydropower…
Estimation of h (Net or Effective Head)
Hydrological Analysis of
Hydropower Development…
 Hydrological Analysis of Hydropower Development…
Hydrology of Hydropower
Hydrology is the study of the occurrence, movement and distribution
of water on, above, and within the earth's surface.
➢ Parameters necessary in making hydropower studies are water
discharge (Q) and hydraulic head (h). The measurement and analyses
of these parameters are primarily hydrologic problems.
Determination of the head for a proposed hydropower plant is a surveying
problem that identifies elevations of water surfaces.
➢ In some reconnaissance studies, good contour maps may be sufficient
to determine the value for the hydraulic head.
Because the headwater elevation and tail water elevations of the impoundment can vary with
stream flow, it is frequently necessary to develop headwater and tail water curves that show
variation with time, river discharge, or operational features of the hydropower project.
Hydrological Analysis of Hydropower Development…
❑ About the water resources planning by assumption of the past history of
water occurrence will be repeated in future through hydrological analysis.
Those Hydrological analysis:
▪ Flow duration Studies
▪ Determination of Average annual discharge
❑ The generation of Hydropower is not consumption of water except
evaporation from reservoir.
But the extent to which the power production will affect the
use of water depends on such factors like.
▪ Location and capacity of power plant
▪ The nature of power to be produced i.e. ROR Power, Peaking Power
▪ The amount of fore-bay
➢ The data's used for determination of the water requirement for power production:
Hydrological Data (Daily or Monthly flow) and Rainfall Data
 Flow Duration Studies (FDC)
❑ A Useful ways of treating the time variables of water discharge data in
hydropower studies is by utilized FDC.
A plot of flow Vs Percent of time a particular flow.

Methods of
Computing:
▪ Rank Order Technique
(Total Period Method)
▪ Class Interval Technique
(The Calendar Year Method)
 Flow Duration Studies (FDC)
Characteristics of Flow Duration Curve
It shows how flow is distributed over a period.
Types of FDC…
▪ Steep Flow duration curve
▪ Flat Flow duration curve
Steep FDC: indicate that a flashy catchment one which is subject to
extreme flood and droughts.
➢ Factors which cause a catchment to be flashy are:
▪ Rocky, shallow soil,
▪ Lack of vegetation cover,
▪ Steep, short streams,
▪ Uneven Rainfall (frequent storm, long dry period …
Steep FDC: Not suitable for HP Development, especially ROR Type.
Flat FDC: is good because it means that the total annual flow will be spread more
evenly over the year, giving a useful flow for longer periods, and less severe floods.
 Flow Duration Studies (FDC)
The capacity estimate for firm power is then made by using the entire
recorded flow data and plotting in a single flow duration curve.
In such a case two different methods are in use.
I. The total period method, and
II. The calendar year method.
Both methods utilize the flow data available for the entire period for
which records are available.
Total Period Method … Rank Order Technique
The entire available record is used for drawing the FDC. Thus, ten years’ record
would produce 120 values of monthly average flows.
▪ Its tabulated in descending order and the FDC
would then be drawn with the help of 120 values.
▪ It gives more correct results
Flow Duration Studies (FDC)
Calendar Year Method .. Class interval technique
➢ The class-interval technique is slightly different in that the time series of
flow values are categorized into class intervals. The classes range from the
highest flow value to the lowest value in the time series.
▪ The number of flows greater than the upper limit of a class interval can
be divided by the total number of flow values in the data series to obtain
the exceedance percentage.
▪ The value of the flow for the particular upper limit of the class interval is
then plotted versus the computed exceedance percent.

Reading Assignment
Extrapolation of flow duration
data to ungauged sites
 Flow Duration Studies (FDC)
Calendar Year Method .. Class interval technique
Example
Discharge Capacity of a Plant
❑ It is the discharge the plant can pass at its full gate opening of the
runner(s) of the turbine(s) under design head.
A flow duration curve is used to explain discharge capacity
(Qc ) as labeled in the Figure.

➢ To the left of that point on the duration curve

the stream discharge is greater, it is not possible
to pass the higher discharges through the plant.
Determination of Average Annual Discharge
❑ To use the parametric Flow duration curve effectively it is necessary to
determine the average annual discharge.
Isohytal Map develops for normal annual Precipitation (PPt)
helping for determine the annual discharge.

To calculate the average annual discharge using the formula:

𝐐 = 𝐊𝐏𝐀
Where:
Q – Average annual discharge,
K – Annual Runoff coefficient,
P – Weighted average annual precipitation,
A – Drainage Area
 Other Hydrological Considerations…
(Estimation of hydropower potential of a river)
▪ Water Pressure or Head,
▪ Tail water Relationship
▪ Area Capacity Curve
▪ Reservoir Rule curve
▪ Reservoir Capacity
▪ Evaporation loss evaluation
▪ Spillway design flood analysis
Water Pressure or Head
Measurement of Gross Head.
➢ A vertical distance that the water falls through generating power.
Estimation of Net Head
➢ Gross head minus the summation of all losses from trash rack,
pipe line friction, bend and valves equal to the net head.
Losses = Conveyance loss + plant losses (entrance, rack, generator, turbine)
 Cont … Other Hydrological Considerations.
Residual, reserved or compensation flow
An uncontrolled abstraction of water
from a watercourse, to pass it through
a turbine, even if it is returned to the
stream close to the intake, could lead
to sections of the watercourse being
left almost dry with serious results for
aquatic life.
 Cont … Other Hydrological Considerations
Tail water Relationship
The relationship between tail water elevation versus river discharge
curve over the complete range of flow that is to be expected.
How to Prepare…
Requires an adequate contour map of the
channel watershed area and estimation of
velocity in the channel at various stage using
manning open channel flow equation.
Why…?
As releases of water over spillways and any other releases
into the stream immediately below a hydropower plant
are made, the tail water elevation below the outlet to
the turbines will fluctuate.
Cont… (River Flow Calculation)
Mid-section method Mean-section method

Current meter
location at 0.2d and
0.8d

Current meter
location at 0.2d and
0.8d
Cont… (River Flow Calculation)

Mean-section method

Mid-section method
 Cont … Other Hydrological Considerations
Area Capacity Curve or Elevation-Area-Volume Curve
Storage or pondage volume
In one graph

Vs
Impoundment surface elevation curve

Surface area
Vs.
Reservoir elevation

Why…?
▪ To obtain Dam height
▪ Most hydropower developments involve
an impoundment behind a dam.
As the water in storage in the impoundment is released the headwater elevation
changes and this will influence the design of the plant and the pattern of operation.
Cont … Other Hydrological Considerations
Reservoir Capacity
By developing Mass curve procedure of computing the necessary capacity
corresponding to a given inflow and demand pattern.
Reservoir Rule Curves
➢ When releases from reservoirs are made, the schedule of releases
is often dictated by considerations other than just meeting the
flow demands for power production.
▪ The needs for municipal water supply, for flood control, and for
downstream use dictate certain restraints.
The restraints are conventionally taken care of by developing reservoir
operation rule curves that can guide operating personnel in making
necessary changes in reservoir water releases.
Evaporation Loss Evaluation:
If there is an impoundment or reservoir involved in a hydropower development
there is need to assess the effect of evaporation loss from the reservoir surface.
Cont … Other Hydrological Considerations
Reservoir Capacity
Cont … Other Hydrological Considerations
Spillway Design Flood Analysis
Many hydropower developments require a dam or a diversion that
blocks the normal river flow.
▪ Its requires that provisions be made for passing flood flows.
▪ Treats a unique type of hydrology that concerns the occurrence
of rare events of extreme flooding.
It is customary on larger dams and dams where failure might cause a major disaster to
design the spillway to pass the probable maximum flood. For small dams, spillways are
designed to pass a standard project flood.

Water Power Potential…

 Water Power Potential…
Before any Hydropower is contemplated, it is essential to assess the inherent
power available from the discharge of the river and the head available of the site.
➢ The gross head of any proposed scheme can be assessed by
simple surveying techniques,
➢ Hydrological data on rainfall and runoff are essential in order to
assess the quantity of water available.
➢ The hydrological data necessary for potential assessment are:
▪ The daily, weekly, or monthly flow over a period of several years, to
determine the plant capacity and estimate output,
▪ Low flows, to assess the primary, firm or dependable power.
The Potential or Theoretical Power
Pp = γQH

Hydraulic Power
P = γQH Where: - Efficiency of the turbine
Energy and Power Analysis using FDC…
Power Duration Curve
Remember: From previous discussion:
Theoretical Condition

The actual output is diminished by the fact that the turbine has losses in
transforming the potential and kinetic energy into mechanical energy
So use the efficiency term ( Overall efficiency)

it is possible to generate a power duration curve

from the flow duration curve. How?
High discharges are available only for short durations in a year. Thus the
corresponding available power would be of short duration.
 Cont…
If the discharge rate and the percentage duration of time for which it is available
are plotted, a flow-duration curve.
▪ Power duration curve can also be plotted since power is
directly proportional to the discharge and available head.
▪ FDC/PDC: indicates discharge or power available in the stream
for the given percentage of time.
Potential power resources can be characterized by values according to the discharge taken as
a basis of computation. The conventional discharges are Q100, Q95, Q50, Qm. Thus we have,
▪ Minimum potential power (Pp100): from the minimum flow that is available for 100% of the time.
▪ Small potential power (Pp 95): from the flow available for 95% of the time.
▪ Median potential power(Pp 50): from the flow available for 50% of time.
▪ Mean potential power (Ppm): from the average of mean yearly flows for a period of 10 to 30
years. It is also known as gross power potential
 Load Terminologies
▪ Load: Its the amount of power delivered or received at a given point at any instant.
▪ Average Load: Its the total load produced divided by the number of hours in the
time period of interest.
▪ Peak Load: Its the maximum instantaneous load or a maximum average load over a
specified period of time.
▪ Base Load: Its the total load continuously exceeded;
From Load Curve (Load Vs. Time)

Power demand: is the total load, which

consumers choose, at any instant of time, to
connect to the supplying power system.
 1. 1. Load Factor (LF)
The degree of variation of the load over a period of time is measured by the load factor,
▪ Which may be defined as the average load divided by the peak load
within the given time range.
▪ It gives an idea of degree of utilization of capacity;
Actual Energy consumed (say during 24hrs. ሻ
Daily LF =
Max (Peakሻ Demand ∗ 24hrs.
From Load Duration Curve
➢ As the load factor approaches zero, the
duration curve will approach a narrow L
shape, indicating a peak load of very
short duration with very low.

➢ As the load factor approaches unity, the

duration curve will be somewhat
rectangular in appearance, indicating high
sustained loads.
2. 2. Utilization Factor (UF)
Used to measures the use made of the total installed capacity of the plant. It
is defined as the ratio of the peak load and the rated capacity of the plant.
Quantity of water (used for power produtionሻ
UF =
Quantity of Water (Available in the riverሻ

If the head is assumed to be constant,

Power Utilized
UF =
Power Available
Utilization Factor For a plant depends up on type of a system:
Low Utilization Factor
▪ The plant is used only for stand-by purposes on a system comprised of several stations.
▪ The capacity has been installed well in advance of need
High Utilization Factor
▪ The plant is probably the most efficient in the system.
Most of the time:
UF b/n 0.4 and 0.9 depending on the plant capacity, LF & storage.
 Actual Energy use in a period
Plant Use Factor =
3. 3. Capacity Factor (CF)
Maximum Energy produced in a period

Used for measuring the extent of use of the generating plant.

Frequently also termed Plant Use Factor.
Avg output of plant for a given period Energy Actually Produced
CF = OR CF =
Full Capacity of plant Energy that plant is capable of producing at full capacity

When the peak load is equal to the capacity of the plant - Capacity factor and
load factor become identical. The relationship between the two factors
Peak Load ∗ LF
CF =
Rated Capacity of the Plant

Diversity Factor (DF)

Summation of the different types of load divided by the peak load.

greater than One (1)

Firm and Secondary Power
Firm/ Primary Power
▪ The power which is always ensured to a consumer at any hour of the day.
▪ Completely dependable power.
▪ Firm power would correspond to the minimum stream flow and is available for all the times;
Secondary power:
▪ Surplus or non-firm power, is the power other than the primary power.
▪ Used to take care of the current demand by following a load-duration plan.

The firm power increased by the use of storage.

 Load Prediction
❑ For the installation of a new power plant or for the expansion of
the existing power plant,
▪ it is necessary to estimate the total amount of load that
would be required to be met for various purposes.
➢ The economics of the installation or expansion of a power plant calls for the correct
prediction or forecasting of the power demand.

It May be…
➢ Short-term (< 5 years),
▪ for operation and planning of existing power plants,
➢ Medium-term (around 10 years),
▪ for expansion program of power generation facilities.
➢ Long-term (> 20 years) periods,
▪ It helps in the formulation of the country’s perspective plan for power generation.
 Cont…
load forecasting techniques:
▪ Trend analysis
▪ End-use analysis
▪ Econometric analysis

To determine electricity demand during

specific year in a particular area.
Trend Analysis
▪ Extends use of past growth rates of power demand into the future.
▪ It focuses on past changes or movements in demand and uses them
to predict future changes in the demand.
Advantage of Trend Analysis
▪ simple, quick and inexpensive to perform.
▪ It is useful when there is no enough data to use more sophisticated methods
Disadvantage of Trend Analysis
▪ It produces only one result – future power demand.
Cont…
End-Use Analysis
▪ The demand for power depends on what it is used for (the end-use).
Advantage of End-use Analysis
▪ To identifies exactly where power goes and how much is used for each purpose.
Disadvantage of End-use Analysis
▪ it assumes a constant relationship between power and end-use,
For Example, power used per appliance. But, in actual case, energy
saving technology or energy prices will undoubtedly change with
time, and the relationship will not remain constant.
Econometric Analysis
➢ Econometric analysis uses economics, mathematics, and statistics to
forecast power demand.
➢ It is a combination of trend analysis and end-use analysis,

Example…
 Example…
I. A drainage basin has a power plant site located at the mouth of the catchment. An
upstream reservoir regulates the flow at the upper portions of the drainage. The area of
the hydrologic map representative of the drainage basin below the reservoir has been
planimetered and given in table A below. A runoff coefficient for the basin on the annual
basis is 0.65. The historic monthly flows of a nearby stream gauge on the downstream
side of the stream are presented. The gauge records are considered to be a good
representation of seasonal variation of runoff for the ungauged portion of the river
drainage basin. (Take: Scale of the Isohytal Map is 1:400,000)
Estimate the river flow at the outlet that would be useful for the Hydropower study?
Given Data:
Values of planimetered areas downstream of the reservoir
 Cont…
Monthly flows for an average year in a representative gauged stream

Out flow from the upper reservoir

Month Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Flow (m3/s) 1.42 1.27 2.27 2.83 5.66 7.08 7.08 5.66 1.98 1.84 1.7 1.56

Solution:
▪ Determine the average annual discharge
▪ Compute yearly runoff from the representative gauge (Column 4)
▪ Compute monthly fraction of runoff (Column 5)
▪ Compute flow for the downstream portion (Column 6)
▪ Compute the total flow at the outlet (Column 8)
▪ Compute the FDC
 Cont… Solution
Runoff Monthly Monthly flow outflow from total flow
Month days Q (m3/s)
(m /s) day fraction (qi) at d/s (m3/s) reservoir (m3/s)
3
(m3/s)
Sample calculation (Jan)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Jan 31 7.11 220.41 0.026 0.05 1.42 1.47 Q Jan = 7.11 ∗ 31 = 220.41 (m3/sሻ day
Feb 28 7.14 199.92 0.024 0.05 1.27 1.32
Mar 31 9.88 306.28 0.037 0.07 2.27 2.34
Apr 30 33.13 993.9 0.119 0.23 2.83 3.06
May 31 80.02 2480.62 0.298 0.54 5.66 6.20
June 30 64.31 1929.3 0.232 0.44 7.08 7.52
July 31 22.57 699.67 0.084 0.15 7.08 7.23 Total Flow Jan = 0.05 + 1.42
Aug 31 11.84 367.04 0.044 0.08 5.66 5.74 = 1.47 m3/s
Sep 30 9.4 282 0.034 0.06 1.98 2.04
Oct 31 9.4 291.4 0.035 0.06 1.84 1.90
Nov 30 9.51 285.3 0.034 0.06 1.7 1.76
Dec 31 8.44 261.64 0.031 0.06 1.56 1.62
8317.48

Yearly runoff in (m3/sec) days = 8317.48

 Cont… Solution
S.No. Flow Flow in descending order rank m/(N+1) % Exceed
1 1.47 7.52 1 0.077 7.7
FDC
2 1.32 7.23 2 0.154 15.4 8.00
3 2.34 6.20 3 0.231 23.1 7.00

4 3.06 5.74 4 0.308 30.8 6.00

Flow (m3/s)
5 6.20 3.06 5 0.385 38.5 5.00

4.00
6 7.52 2.34 6 0.462 46.2 3.00
7 7.23 2.04 7 0.538 53.8 2.00

8 5.74 1.90 8 0.615 61.5 1.00

9 2.04 1.76 9 0.692 69.2 0.00

0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00
10 1.90 1.62 10 0.769 76.9 % Exceed
11 1.76 1.47 11 0.846 84.6
12 1.62 1.32 12 0.923 92.3 Therefore, the firm flow = 1.32 m3/sec
Avg 3.52
 Example…
II. The two stations of sharing a common load in one is base load station and the other
is stand by station. The data is given below for both stations.
➢ Base load station characteristics:
▪ Installed capacity = 25 MW
▪ Yearly output = 125*106 KWh
▪ Peak of 22.5 MW
➢ Standby station characteristics:
▪ Installed capacity = 30 MW
▪ Yearly output = 10.5*106 KWh
▪ Peak load taken by stand by station = 15 MW
▪ Station works for 2500 hrs/year
Compute:
A. Annual Load Factor
B. Plant Use Factor For Both Stations…
C. Capacity Factor
 Example…
III. A run-off-river plant operates as a peak load plant with 20% weekly load factor, and all
its capacity is firm capacity. What will be the minimum flow in the river so that the
station may serve as a base load station given that:
▪ Rated installed capacity of generator = 10,000 KW
▪ Operating head = 15m
▪ Plant efficiency = 80%
Estimate the daily load factor of the plant by if the stream flow is 25m3/S.
IV. The 95% dependable discharge of a river is 20m3/s. if the utilized head is 25m.
Estimate:
A. The theoretical hp and kw of power from the flow for 95% of time [Pp95]
B. The approximate actual amount of power output
C. The total yearly energy that can be developed
D. The actual capacity that may be installed to utilized all the average flow and
corresponding energy.

End of this chapter