INDONESIA MACRO SURVEY REPORT

The date of survey from March.28 to April.13 2019

Young coffee planting in Aceh New coffee planting in Pagar Alam

 Scale of survey
• The distribute of checkpoint represent
in the below table:
• From the south of Sumatra we can
make an adjustment for production in
Java.

Province Checkpoint
Lampung 69
South Sumatera 109
Bengkulu 43
Jambi 19
North Sumatra 51
Indonesia coffee area Ache 30
 The result of macro survey 2019/2020 crop in Sumatra island

Robusta & Arabica

Region/subregion
Area Cherry condition Tree condition Planting condition Yield Prod

ha 1-5 1-5 1-5 bag/ha 60kg bag

Lampung 161,967 3.3 3.7 2.9 18.1 2,929,665

South Sumatera
268,297 2.9 3.4 3.3 13.3 3,573,629
Bengkulu
92,176 3.5 3.8 3.6 17.6 1,622,877
Jambi
31,358 3.2 2.9 3.5 14.1 441,403
North Sumatera(Arabica)
64,200 2.0 4.5 4.0 7.2 461,706
Aceh (Arabica)
96,000 3.2 4.4 4.0 18.1 1,735,981

Grand Total
713,998 3.0 3.7 3.4 15.1 10,765,260
Macro survey comparison: Yield in 4 province of southern Sumatra of 19/20
crop increase 32% compare to 18/19 crop, and cherry condition also much
higher to prove for the increasing of yield and production.

Result of macro survey

30.0

25.0

20.0
15.5
13.2 12.9
15.0 11.7
10.4

10.0

5.0

2.7 2.7 2.5 2.8 3.2

0.0
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20

Cherry condition Tree condition Planting condition Yeild

Indonesia coffee area: The coffee area increase very fast in Jambi and
significantly South Sumatra province, beside the Arabica coffee area
also is increasing about 1% in Aceh and North Sumatra province
Robusta (ha) Arabica (ha)
Region/subregion
2019/20 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 2015/16 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 2015/16
Lampung 161,967 161,967 160,564 160,178 158,991
South Sumatera 268,297 265,324 262,072 259,392 256,643
Bengkulu 92,000 92,000 92,000 92,000 92,000 3,700 3,700 3,700 3,700 3,700
Jambi 31,358 30,358 28,522 26,835 26,122 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100
North Sumatera 17,100 18,000 18,000 18,000 18,000 64,000 63,000 61,740 61,740 61,123
Ache 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 96,000 95,000 94,000 93,530 93,100
West Sumatrera 36,000 36,000 36,000 36,000 36,000 13,000 13,000 13,000 13,000 13,000
East Java 40,558 40,558 40,558 40,558 40,558 20,445 20,445 20,445 20,445 20,445
Central Java 28,138 28,138 28,138 28,138 28,138
West Java 21,202 21,202 21,202 21,202 21,202
Bali 20,703 20,703 20,703 20,703 20,703 9,297 9,297 9,297 9,297 9,297
Nusa Tenggara 34,708 34,708 34,708 34,708 34,708
Kalimantan 11,729 11,729 11,729 11,729 11,729
Sulawesi 35,733 35,733 35,733 35,733 35,733
Maluku 2,239 2,239 2,239 2,239 2,239
Papua 1,249 1,249 1,249 1,249 1,249 8,751 8,751 9,101 9,101 9,101

GRAND TOTAL 803,981 800,908 794,417 789,664 785,015 218,293 216,293 214,383 213,913 212,866
Result of interview farmers: About 70% famers
confirm the 19/20 crop is better than 18/19 crop
Farmers say the 19/20 crop is much better than 18/19 crop

Farmers say about 19/20 crop

Good crop 23

Bad Crop 7

Unchanged crop 3
Good crop Bad Crop Unchange crop
Production of Robusta: in southern Sumatra is very big
in 19/20 crop with 8.59 mn bag, increase 33%
compare to 18/19 crop.
Production of Robusta (mn bag) Change (%)
Island 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 2015/16 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 2015/16

Southern
Sumatra 8.59 6.45 5.64 7.05 7.03 133.16% 152.16% 121.71% 122.06%

Northern
Sumatra 0.63 0.66 0.60 0.64 0.54 95.58% 105.86% 98.78% 116.83%
Java 1.42 1.33 1.21 1.44 1.33 107.24% 117.94% 98.60% 107.24%

Other island 1.05 1.05 0.90 1.02 1.07 100.00% 115.72% 102.15% 98.03%

Total 11.69 9.49 8.35 10.16 9.97 123.24% 139.95% 115.01% 117.23%
 Production of Arabica: in the northern
Sumatra increase 36% compare to 18/19 crop
Production of Arabica (mn bag) Arabica and Robusta (% change)
Island
2019/20
2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 2015/16 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 2015/16
Southern
0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06
Sumatra 101.8% 114.02% 99.44% 96.09%
Northern
2.29 1.68 1.61 1.89 1.75
Sumatra 136.2% 141.89% 121.36% 131.02%

Java 0.17 0.16 0.13 0.17 0.14

106.3% 130.77% 100.00% 121.43%

Other island 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.14 0.14

98.2% 108.62% 98.04% 99.95%

Total 2.66 2.04 1.92 2.26 2.08

130.3% 138.22% 117.73% 127.35%
Indonesia coffee production: Total production of
Indonesia could be 14.34 mn bags in 19/20 crop,
increase 24.5% compare to 18/19 crop
Production of Robusta and Arabica (mn bag) Arabica and Robusta (% change)
Island
2019/20 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 2015/16 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 2015/16

Southern Sumatra 8.64 6.50 5.69 7.11 7.09

132.9% 151.85% 121.54% 121.86%

Northern Sumatra 2.92 2.34 2.21 2.53 2.29

124.7% 132.14% 115.63% 127.66%
Java 1.60 1.49 1.34 1.62 1.47 107.1% 119.21% 98.75% 108.62%
Other island 1.19 1.19 1.03 1.17 1.21 99.8% 114.84% 101.65% 98.26%

Total 14.34 11.52 10.27 12.42 12.06 124.5% 139.63% 115.50% 118.98%
Indonesia coffee production: 11.69 mn bag of
Robusta and 2.66 mn bag of Arabica
Indonesia coffee production in 60kg million bags
16.00

14.00
2.66
12.00
2.26
2.08
2.04
10.00
1.92

8.00

6.00 11.69
10.16 9.97
9.49
4.00 8.35

2.00

0.00
2019/20 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 2015/16

Robusta Arabica
Indonesia and PNG coffee production
Indonesia and PNG coffee production (60kg million bags)
18.00

16.00
1.00
14.00
1.10
0.80
12.00 0.95

0.90
10.00

8.00
14.34
6.00 12.42 12.06
11.52
10.27
4.00

2.00

0.00
2019/20 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 2015/16

Indonesia (R&A) PNG (A)

Lampung weather: Low rainfall in July and August 2018 was good for coffee
flowering and setting cherries, additional the rainfall inline normal in the time of
cherries development was also very good.

Rainfall in Lampung
400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep oct Nov Dec

Average (2006-2019) 2017 2018 2019

West Lampung
South Sumatra weather: low rainfall in June, July and August 2018 was very
good for flowering and setting cherries, additional the rainfall was not so
much from Sept to Dec 2018 was good for the development of cherries
Chart Title
400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep oct Nov Dec

Average (2006-2019) 2017 2018 2019

Pagar Alam
Bengkulu weather: weather condition from July to
Dec 2018 was very good for 19/20 crop
Chart Title
450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep oct Nov Dec

Average (2006-2019) 2017 2018 2019

Jambi weather: the rainfall was historical low from April to July was very for coffee flowering
in low land and highland, that why the 19/20 crop is very nice in Jambi, special lowland is
very good crop. However too much rainfall from Oct to now can bring a lot of disease for
this region and it can impact to 20/21 crop.
Chart Title
450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep oct Nov Dec

Average (2006-2019) 2017 2018 2019

Aceh: the main crop and the second crop look
very good.
North Sumatra province weather: The 19/20 crop look still good because the
supported of favourable weather from May to Oct. However the production of
19/20 crop could be reduce a bit, because the 18/19 crop of Arabica was also very
good in here.
Indonesia coffee region weather: The total rainfall
combine the monthly distribution of rainfall in 2018 was
very favourable for 19/20 crop
Monthly rainfall in southern Sumatra Rainfall accumulation in southern Sumatra
400 3000

350
2500

300

2000
250

200 1500

150
1000

100

500
50

0 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep oct Nov Dec

Average (2006-2019) 2017 2018 2019 Average (2006-2019) 2017 2018 2019
Weather and crop: overall low rainfall is god for coffee in
Indonesia
The rainfall and coffee production
3500 16

14.34
14
3000

12.45 12.45
12.03 12
2500 11.73 11.52
11.2
10.22 10
2000

1500 6.86
6

1000
4

500
2

0 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Total rainfall(mm) Production(mn bag)

Harvesting progress: the harvesting of main crop started very early and it can take to 85% of
total production, the harvesting of 19/20 crop could be delay a bit in late of April and early
of May because it is having a lot of rains in this time. The second crop of 19/20 just take
about 15% of production and it will be harvested from Oct to Dec.
Harvesting progress
120.0%

100.0%

80.0%

60.0%
Finish harvesting the
second crop
40.0%

Finish harvesting the

20.0%
main crop

0.0%
Apr.15 Apr.30 May.15 May.31 Jun.15 Jun.30 Jul.15 Jul.31 Aug Sep Oct.15 Oct.31 Nov.15 Nov.30 Dec.15 Dec.31 Jan Feb

2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20

Harvesting progress: The left is harvesting in Aceh,
the right is harvesting in South Sumatra province
Selling progress: Depend on the progress of harvesting, I also
predict farmers will sell out about 80% production of 19/20 crop
from April to August, much more than normal
The progress of farmer’s sale coffee
120.0%

100.0%

80.0%

60.0%

40.0%

20.0%

0.0%
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20

Selling progress: The left is a middlemen in North Sumatra
province and the right is a middlemen in Bengkulu, they have
bought a lot of coffee since the early of April.
 Production cost: 10 million Rp/MT of green coffee Robusta, and
33.2 million Rp/MT of green coffee Arabica
Production cost per MT of green coffee (RP)
Robusta Arabica
Item 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2019/20
Fertilizer 500,000 500,000 400,000 400,000 3,100,000
Pruning 560,000 560,000 560,000 500,000 900,000
Grafting 600,000 650,000 600,000 600,000 100,000
Harvesting 7,400,000 7,100,000 7,000,000 6,900,000 16,000,000
Weeding 520,000 530,000 520,000 510,000 800,000
Processing 600,000 650,000 600,000 600,000 11,500,000
Pesticide 55,000 55,000 55,000 55,000 60,000
Equipment 290,000 300,000 280,000 250,000 300,000
Other labour 220,000 220,000 220,000 200,000 450,000

Total 10,745,000 10,565,000 10,235,000 10,015,000 33,210,000

Price and cost: Price of Arabica is still good, but
price of Robusta is too low.
Price of Robusta at farmgate (Rp/kg of green coffee bean) Current price at farmaget and COP
80,000 76,000
30,000

70,000
25,000
60,000

20,000 50,000

40,000
15,000
33,210

30,000
10,000
20,000 17,900

10,015
5,000 10,000

0
0
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar COP/Kg of GB Price/Kg of GB

2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Production cost Robusta Arabica

Stock at the end of March: I see and estimate farmers keep holding about 0.5% plus
middlemen stock about 1% of production of18/19 crop at the end of March, more than
normal, because the second crop in 18/19 is much bigger than normal and it finish the
harvesting later. Total stock belong to trader houses and local exporter are inline normal

Stock at the end of March

90,000
Crop 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
80,000
Trader
70,000 houses 16,581 41,540 19,500 68,100 11,175 24,450
60,000

50,000
Exporters 15,825 13,050 21,000 7,125 9,525 31,077

40,000
Middlemen 1,266 1,044 4,500 570 762 7,000
30,000

20,000 Farmers 600 750 900 1,080 450 3,500

10,000

0
13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19

Trader houses Exporters Middlemen Farmers

Total 34,272 56,384 45,900 76,875 21,912 66,027
Stock at the end of March: stock in lampung, Java and Medan is
inline normal, but stock in upcountry is bigger than normal.

The end stock of Indonesia

90,000
The end stock of Indonesia
80,000

70,000 Crop 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19

60,000
Lampung 21,604 36,393 27,000 50,150 13,800 37,018
50,000

40,000
Medan&Java 10,802 18,197 13,500 25,075 6,900 18,509
30,000

20,000 Up-country 1,866 1,794 5,400 1,650 1,212 10,500

10,000

0
13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19

Lampung Medan&Java Up-country

Total 34,272 56,384 45,900 76,875 21,912 66,027
 Export from Lampung: Export green coffee from Lampung reduce 38.5% in 18/19 crop compare to
17/18 crop

Monthly export from Lampung Accumulate of export of green coffee in Lampung

14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 400,000

8,055 25,197 7,019 21,757 6,047

350,000
12,000 25,223 8,515 26,532 8,654
18,031 32,008 16,193 31,642 13,764 300,000

27,097 42,481 22,331 44,526 17,226

250,000
25,855 42,898 31,690 35,737 17,285
25,345 37,069 28,637 26,784 16,500 200,000

26,838 35,434 37,657 28,652 13,386

150,000
19,575 25,110 31,238 15,113 11,742
20,498 17,751 29,695 10,695 13,540 100,000

18,382 11,371 22,244 7,458 14,094

50,000
19,430 10,714 20,088 5,892 16,745
17,561 9,279 17,529 8197.14 12722.2 0
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19

238,667 314,535 272,836 262,985 161,705
 Lampung arrival: The arrival Lampung( export combine stock) in 18/19 crop reduce
close 30% compare to 17/18 crop

Lampung arrival Lampung arrival(MT)

350,000
Month 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Apr 35,994 0 70,257 14,262 300,000
May 58,439 1,870 106,519 30,216
250,000
Jun 92,538 23,177 109,031 67,585
Jul 125,759 65,944 196,579 60,741
200,000
Aug 185,707 122,299 144,675 71,476
Sep 207,476 193,636 107,722 69,276 150,000

Oct 223,240 230,528 134,725 96,862

100,000
Nov 242,560 264,441 133,501 97,604
Dec 255,211 289,125 149,583 103,885 50,000

Jan 274,742 291,419 177,846 123,538

0
Feb 275,356 295,857 200,988 133,514 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Mar 297,142 304,836 225,785 150,151
 Export from Java: Export green coffee in Java port
in 18/19 crop reduce 17% compare to 17/18 crop
Export Green Coffee In Java Ports (MT) Export green coffee in Java ports (MT)
Month/crop 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 100,000

Apr 8,165 7,542 5,796 4,174

90,000
May 5,500 5,585 8,998 4,824
80,000
Jun 5,631 5,065 3,679 2,559
Jul 4,694 3,793 8,531 5,998 70,000

Aug 8,566 6,114 8,457 6,874 60,000

Sep 16,283 8,889 6,723 6,401

50,000
Oct 8,762 10,131 7,090 6,414
40,000
Nov 7,459 9,049 7,562 6,782
Dec 6,868 6,905 6,934 6,124 30,000

Jan 6,719 6,930 6,912 5,022 20,000

Feb 7,816 5,915 6,303 7,000

10,000
Mar 7,811 9,175 6,303 7,000
0
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Total 94,274 85,092 83,288 69,172 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
Export Soluble coffee (96% from Java): equivalence to GB that export
soluble coffee in 18/19 crop increase 13.7% (source of Customs)
Export soluble coffee equivalence to green coffee (MT) Soluble coffee equivalence to green coffee (MT)
100,000
Month/crop 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Apr 4,230 4,776 5,617 8,849 90,000

May 162 4,804 8,112 10,749 80,000

Jun 5,665 4,035 4,525 3,780
70,000
Jul 3,027 3,778 6,476 7,585
Aug 2,907 6,559 6,417 10,754 60,000

Sep 2,914 4,953 4,950 8,632 50,000

Oct 3,544 5,503 5,205 9,010
40,000
Nov 4,808 5,869 8,690 2,825
Dec 3,878 4,861 8,158 6,601 30,000

Jan 5,206 6,549 4,801 5,000 20,000

Feb 5,953 5,408 7,188 7,000
10,000
Mar 5,605 6,037 7,043 7,000
0
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Total 47,899 63,131 77,181 87,787
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
mn bag 0.80 1.05 1.29 1.46
 Export from Medan: Export in belawan port
increase 12.8% in 18/19 crop compare to 17/18.
Export green coffee in Belawan port
Export green coffee in Belawan
Month/crop 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
80,000
Apr 6,091 6,481 5,775 7,050
May 6,500 6,660 7,001 7,861 70,000

Jun 3,800 6,825 5,887 5,978

60,000
Jul 6,521 4,031 6,344 6,334
Aug 7,758 5,672 6,885 5,576 50,000

Sep 3,944 4,772 4,788 4,327 40,000

Oct 4,998 5,572 5,013 4,583
30,000
Nov 5,879 6,100 5,782 6,456
Dec 7,429 7,976 4,832 6,372 20,000
Jan 7,734 6,698 4,156 6,185
10,000
Feb 6,647 6,686 4,226 6,200
Mar 5,022 6,075 4,226 6,300 0
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19

Total 72,323 73,547 64,914 73,223
Total export from Indonesia: Export in 18/19 crop reduce in Lampung
but still stable in Java and increase in Medan. Predict total export can
jump above 40% in 19/20 crop.
Export from Indonesia
Export Indonesia 600,000

Port/crop 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 500,000

Lampung 314,535 272,114 262,985 161,705 291,069 400,000

Medan 72,323 73,547 64,914 73,223 87,867 300,000

Java (GB and

soluble) 142,173 148,224 160,469 156,958 180,502 200,000

100,000

Total 529,031 493,885 488,368 391,886 559,438 0

15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20

Lampung Medan Java (GB and soluble)

mn bags 8.82 8.23 8.14 6.53 9.32
 Import: because the domestic demand of drinking and
make soluble coffee to export is very big, so that
Indonesia will import a lot of coffee in low crop years
Import coffee to Indonesia
100,000
Import (source of Customs)
90,000

Quality/crop 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 80,000

70,000
Green coffee bean 22,044 25,237 66,000 37,000
60,000
Soluble coffee 4600 4500 9000 8,000
50,000
Roasted, gruond, decafe,
extracted 700 900 11,000 900 40,000

30,000
Other and non document 4,000 4000 10,000 5,000
20,000

10,000

Total 31,344 34,637 96,000 50,900 0

2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Green coffee bean Soluble coffee Roasted, gruond, decafe, extracted Other and non document
mn bag 0.52 0.58 1.60 0.85
Internal consumption: Indonesia does has a big population combine with the coffee
consumption per capita is still low, that why I predict total domestic coffee consumption
of Indonesia continue rise very fast in next years, this issue can lead a hard competition to
buy coffee in low crop years
Chart Title Internal consumption per capita of Vietnam and Indo
6 2.00
5.4
5.1 1.80 1.78
5 1.67
4.6 1.60
4.2 4.3 1.50
4.1 1.45
3.9 1.40
4 3.8 1.33
3.6
1.20 1.24
1.20
1.14 1.14
2.9 1.04 1.04
3 2.7 1.00 0.97 0.98
0.95 0.96
0.91 0.92
2.3 2.4 0.87
2.08 0.80
1.92
2 1.75
1.58 0.60
1.43

0.40
1
0.20

0 0.00
11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20

Indo Vietnam Indo Vietnam

 S&D balance: according to S&D balance that production of Indonesia was stable from 12/13 to 18/19 crop,
seven years did not increase supply but the internal demand always increase at least 5% per year, so this
problem create a gap, lead import was so big in 17/18 crop and export reduce 20% in 18/19 crop. However the
S&D table also point out a very big crop in 19/20 crop can cover for domestic demands and speed up export as
big as cycle of seven years ago.

Crop 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
A 1.30 1.50 1.64 1.80 2.07 2.25 1.92 2.01 2.66
R 5.56 10.23 10.81 9.40 9.96 10.20 8.30 9.50 11.69
Production Total 6.86 11.73 12.45 11.20 12.03 12.45 10.22 11.51 14.35
Carryover at start 1.74 1.00 0.79 0.77 0.95 0.67 1.28 0.37 1.05
A 0.98 1.15 1.46 1.62 1.60 1.59 1.30 1.50 1.8
R 4.12 7.80 7.70 6.00 7.21 6.65 6.83 5.03 7.5
Export (variety) Total 5.10 8.95 9.16 7.62 8.81 8.24 8.13 6.53 9.30
Green coffee 8.02 7.19 6.85 5.07 7.8
Soluble(GBE) 0.79 1.05 1.28 1.46 1.5
Export (product) Total 8.81 8.24 8.13 6.53 9.30
Imports R &A 1.20 0.80 0.60 0.70 0.70 0.70 1.60 0.80 0.7
Internal Demand 3.70 3.80 3.90 4.10 4.20 4.30 4.60 5.10 5.4
Carryover at end 1.00 0.79 0.77 0.95 0.67 1.28 0.37 1.05 1.40
Supply 8.06 12.53 13.05 11.90 12.73 13.15 11.82 12.31 15.05
Demand 8.80 12.75 13.06 11.72 13.01 12.54 12.73 11.63 14.60
S&D balance -0.74 -0.22 -0.02 0.18 -0.28 0.61 -0.91 0.68 0.35
Crop forecast: According to the weather forecast of London, that the low rainfall from
June to Oct is very good for coffee, additional according to result of macro survey that
tree condition and planting condition for 20/21 crop are much better than normal, that
why at the moment I expect the production of 20/21 crop would be above normal
Tree and planting condition
3.6

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.7
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20

Tree condition Planting condition

Weather forecast from London

Crop Forecast: Forecast total production of
Indonesia would be 13 mn bags in 20/21 crop
Production(mn bag)
16

14.34
14
13
12.45 12.45
12.03
11.73 11.52
12
11.2
10.22
10

8
6.86

0
11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21
Conclusion:
• Although export reduce 20% but production of 18/19 crop still increase
close 13% compare with 17/18 crop and inline with what we have
predicted.
• The production of 19/20 crop could be 14.3 mn bags, 24.5% higher than
18/19 crop, the increase of production in 19/20 crop due to the good
weather condition, the increasing of coffee area and farmers improve their
investment for coffee plantation.
• The big production in 19/20 crop can cover for demand of domestic market
and speed up export in 2019 as big as the cycle of seven years ago.
• The price at farmgate now is historical low, but we have not seen yet the
signal that farmers abandon coffee or limit invest to coffee, but in a long
term that the increase of coffee area or the increase of production are
inline with the increasing of internal consumption, so that overall export
from Indonesia could be stable in next years.
Thank you very much
Thuyen