PAKISTAN - RUSSIA RELATIONS AND US FACTOR

Waqus Ahmad

Introduction

Pakistan’s regional stature in international arena cannot be ruled out due to its geographical
location and proximity with important land and sea routes which makes it all the more relevant in
global politics. As a result, Pakistan’s foreign policy orientations and objectives also have an
impact on the regional and global issues. Pakistan’s relations with Russia, in comparison with
those of the US, have remained insignificant due to several underlying and overarching factors.
Historically, Russian’s India-centric South Asia policy has been the major cause of reduced
relations with Pakistan and Pakistan’s choice of the US as an ally also harmed relations between
both states. However, major shift in the Russian policy vis-à-vis South Asia has now begun to
emerge, wherein it seeks better ties with other countries in the region like Pakistan. The
underlying interests of Russia and the US in South Asia, especially after the initiation of the
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), have made Pakistan an attractive partner for any
power interested in the South Asian region. More importantly, the significant shift in Russia’s
policy in South Asia particularly after US withdrawal from Afghanistan, also builds a persuasive
case for enhancing relations between Pakistan and Russia.

Pakistan’s relations with the US were driven by the economic and security compulsions as well
as the ideological differences with Russia. Pakistan's ideological and bureaucratic preferences,
coupled with the sense of insecurity, obliged it to choose the United States over a communist
Soviet Union as a strategic balancer against India amid an intensifying Cold War (Zaman, 2016).
However, lately, with the rise of regionalism, interconnectivity, economic development in the
Asian countries, particularly China’s rise has created some fissures between Pakistan and the US.
Moreover, the fact that Pakistan vowed neutrality in Russian invasion on Ukraine is also an
irritating factor. In an interview with VOA, then Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood
Qureshi stated “We do not want to be part of any camp. We have paid a price for
being in camps. That is why we are very carefully treading. We don’t want to
compromise our neutrality, and that’s why we abstained” (Qureshi, 2022). Presently,
Russia has been looking forward to expand its ventures into South Asia by forging better ties
with Pakistan. Thus, It is necessary to analyze the extent to which Pakistan needs to balance the
US factor when improving bilateral relations with Russia.

Pak-US Relations

After the partition of subcontinent, Pakistan being newborn and insecure state extended its hand
to US for strategic alliance while at the same time Indian nonalignment policy encouraged US
interests more towards Pakistan. Nonetheless, then President of the US Harry S. Truman’s
administration wanted to maintain strong bilateral relations with both the newborn states and
expected them to maintain regional stability. In fact, the United States was one of the first
countries in the world to establish diplomatic ties with Pakistan after it achieved independence in
1947. In part, that was an effort to keep Pakistan from allying with the Soviet Union during the
Cold War (Erickson, n.d.). In the years that immediately followed the independence, Pakistan
came closer to US as a result of then USSR’s vetoing of Kashmir issue in favour of India. In
1950, following an official invitation from Washington, Liaquat Ali Khan went to the United
States to help garner support for speaking out on the Kashmir issue at the United Nations. A
cooperation agreement was signed between the two countries in 1959, which stipulated that the
US would be required to help Pakistan if it became the victim of aggression from any other
country in the region. However, the US acted neutral during the wars of 1965 and 1971 between
India and Pakistan. Pakistan had to revisit its strategy of making alliances in the backdrop of the
facts that USSR was already undividedly loyal to India, moreover new Indo-US military
alliances had also raised worries for Pakistan. This led to improved relations with China, which
soon led to extensive military and developmental support.

Pakistan’s partnership was tested as a frontline ally during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in
which Pakistan was able to carve out significant assistance from US in exchange for its help in
containing the USSR. However, as the Soviet forces withdrew from Afghanistan, the US interest
in Afghanistan faded very quickly. By the end of the Cold War, both states had developed a huge
trust deficit and US considered Pakistan as an ally, which was no longer of any use to the greater
US interests and propagation of its foreign policy in the region. This abrupt end of Pak-US
collaboration left Pakistan to believe that the US always wanted to subordinate Pakistan rather
than adopt a foreign policy that would promote mutual gains and foster understanding between
the two countries.

Moreover, a nuclear Pakistan was against the US interests in the region and, consequently, in
1990, came the Pressler Amendment. Following Pakistan's nuclear tests in 1998, President Bill
Clinton imposed sanctions on Pakistan, banning military and economic assistance.

After 9/11, Pakistan's international isolation during the 1990s has now allowed it to once again
build strong Western alliances. Each country (especially countries like Afghanistan and Pakistan)
has been given a clear choice to choose a side, as they will fight "with the United States or
against the United States." For this reason, Pervez Musharraf, then the President of Pakistan,
allied himself with the United States. Currently, Pakistan is very much cognizant of the fact that
how to avoid being caught up in the crossfire between United States and China while at the same
time maintaining a posture which is acceptable to West with regards to Russia-Ukraine war. The
deepening US-India relations and looming crisis of potential civil conflict in Afghanistan,
following an American withdrawal is also a worrying factor for Pakistan. Yet Islamabad sees a
hope for a U.S. role in improving Pakistan-India relations and for the revival of ties with
Washington. Kashmir ceasefire deal and the peace proposals the recent Islamabad Security
Dialogue is the reflection of the fact. Moreover, 25 years strategic cooperation deal between
China and Iran signed in Mar 22 might be thought provoking for US in a way that it has lost Iran
to China and may not like Pakistan to be swept away into Beijing’s strategic dealings, too. These
may arguably be the worst of times, and the best of times, for Islamabad (The Misunderstood
History of Pakistan-US Relations, n.d.).

Pak-Russia Relations

Due to certain historical, geographical and ideological realities, Pakistan was unable to establish
better and closer neighborly relations with the Soviet Union. During the Cold War, Pakistan
being young and insecure nation fearing the Indian dominance sided with the US bloc. The
Pakistani Prime Minister at the time, Liaqat Ali Khan refused the Soviet invitation and paid an
official visit to the US. Moreover, holding of two sessions of the International Economic
Conference at Karachi and Tehran, in 1949, was interpreted by many observers in the USSR as
Pakistan’s active participation in the Western efforts to create an anti-Soviet, anti-socialist block
(Khan & Amin, 2014). According to many analysts, the stance of Soviet Union on the issue of
Kashmir was raison d'etre of Pakistan’s position on Communism and its siding with the US. The
Soviets got further annoyed with Pakistan after they shot down a US U2 spy plane, which was
reportedly operating from an airbase in Badaber, Pakistan. The bilateral relations saw an
improvement with the visit of Soviet Deputy Premier’s to Pakistan and declaring the resolution
of the Kashmir dispute according to will of the Kashmiri. The Russian help to Pakistan to
develop oil, gas and mineral resources was renewed in the 1960s with enhanced cooperation
between the two countries. In the same year, the Soviet Union provided US$519 million for the
purchase of heavy machinery (Khan & Amin, 2014). Pakistan and India came to terms to sign
the Tashkent Agreement in 1960s due to active involvement of USSR as a mediator. Relation
b/w both states saw improvement in 1973 in the fields of science and economy, however they
started declining with the ousting of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto from power by General Zia-ul-Haq in
1977. In December 1979, Soviet military invaded Afghanistan, in the backdrop of Saur
revolution. During 1979-1989, the relation between the countries was severely harmed, as
Pakistan once again sided with the US troops to fight the growing Russian dominance in
Afghanistan. At the time, Pakistan was the principal base for the Afghan resistance to Soviet
forces. Seen from Moscow, Pakistan was the enemy’s backer, resource base and sanctuary
(Editors, n.d.).

Russia’s uncertainties grew after Pakistan became a nuclear power while it already had trust
issues with Pakistan. As it is said that there are no permanent alliances, so with the changing
world order, the alliances changed too. In the case of the Afghan War, US left Pakistan helpless,
severely damaging the international image of Pakistan and leaving the country now insecure on
its eastern as well as western border. With the increased US-India alliance, Moscow was now
ready to drop off its reservations against Islamabad. In this milieu, Pakistan tried to maintain
cordial relation with both the US and Russia. The US still happened to be one of the biggest
contributors to Pakistan’s instable economy and also a strong military aid provider. However,
with the declaration of Pakistan as a nuclear power, the aid went on halt. The Pak-US relation
has always been directly dependent on the strained Pakistan-Russia relation, and vice versa
(Purushothaman, n.d.). In the aftermath of 9/11, alliance of Pakistan with the US on the War on
Terror yet again put Pakistan-Russia relations on the backseat. However, Russia believes that
with improved relations with Pakistan, it can gain an advantage on Afghanistan by building
better relations with Islamabad.

Recent Trends in Pakistan Russia Relations and US Factor

Pakistan’s foreign policy has faced certain impediments in recent years which must be overcome
without compromising the sovereignty and national interests of the country. The growing US-
India relations coupled with Pakistan’s abstention from the vote on the resolution condemning
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine during the UN general assembly emergency session has further
deteriorated relations between Pakistan and US. Ex Prime Minister of Pakistan went ahead with
his visit to Moscow despite pressure from the West. A Pakistani communique later stated that
PM Khan had stressed that the Ukraine conflict was not in anyone’s interests and underlined that
disputes should be resolved through dialogue and diplomacy (Schleich, 2022). Hallmark of the
discussion points between Putin and Khan in Moscow was Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline project.
Pakistan had also granted Russia access to its Gwadar port, one of the main hubs for the China-
Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects. Russia’s is transforming its foreign policy to a
new model which according to its leaders, is to balance relationships with everyone and
maintaining peace and stability across the globe with all states. Here Russia might have gone
wrong if seen through the prism of Russia-Ukraine war, yet, it has been diversifying its relations
in South Asia all across the board. Therefore, it seems that Russia does not have a
comprehensive policy for Pakistan or South Asia in general but it does seem to be in the process
of formulating one for the near future. Pakistan has a history of seeking diverse relationships in
order to balance between multiple actors and especially Great Powers. Russia, however, is
showing restraint in boosting the bilateral relations with Pakistan in a full-fledged manner.
Nevertheless, the things are looking up for the improvement of bilateral relations between the
two Cold War adversaries. More fields of cooperation are being identified and worked upon by
the leadership of both countries.
Conclusions

It will be difficult for Pakistan to find a "balance" in relations with the US and Russia as Pakistan
would want to align itself with the changing geopolitical realities. Rise of China, resurgent and
reasserting Russia while on top of that Washington’s relations with India are realities which
cannot be ignored. Even keeping in mind that the future Russia-Pakistan strategic partnership is
still in its infancy, it cannot be compared with Islamabad's relationship with Washington. Russia
and Pakistan clashed in Afghanistan in the 1980s, while the United States and Pakistan
cooperated there to some extent in the 2000s. Pakistan 'won' the first war but 'lost' the second,
and maintaining a high-level 'partnership' with the United States will not change that. In fact, it is
the whole reason for Pakistan’s present “defeat” in a sense that Pakistan was badly hit with the
waves of terrorism after joining hands with US on GWOT in the aftermath of 9/11. Faced with
this ever-growing dilemma, Pakistan will also be looking forward to expand its relations with
Russia. The consequences of this imbalance between Pakistan’s “traditional” relations with the
US and its “new” ones will resonate throughout South Asia because it will make the country, the
central battleground in the new Cold War between the multi-polar and unipolar forces. Thus, it
will always be challenging for Pakistan’s diplomacy to carve out conditions and create
environments whereby it is able to maintain decent relations with both countries based on mutual
trust, trade and cooperation. Achieving a perfect balance between the two powers (the US and
Russia) seems to be a distant dream. Nevertheless, Pakistan should learn from its past
experiences and endeavor to craft a carefully balanced foreign policy in approaching Russia and
the US.
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