Week_6

Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 18

10/11/2024

MS-291: Engineering Economics


(3 Credit Hours)

Chapter 2
Factors: How Time and Interest
Affect Money

Engineering
Economics &
Management
(MS291)

1
10/11/2024

Content of the Chapter

❖ Single-Payment Compound Amount Factor (SPCAF)


❖ Single-Payment Present Worth Factor (SPPWF)

❖ Uniform Series Present Worth Factor (USPWF)


❖ Capital Recovery Factor (CRF)

❖ Uniform Series Compound Amount Factor


❖ Sinking Fund Factor (SFF)

❖ Arithmetic Gradient Factor


❖ Geometric Gradient Series Factor

Join MS Team

2
10/11/2024

Chapter 5
Present Worth
Analysis

Content of the Chapter


1. Formulate Alternatives
2. Present Worth of equal-life alternatives
3. Present Worth of different-life alternatives
4. Future Worth analysis
5. Capitalized Cost analysis

3
10/11/2024

Previous Lecture
• Background
• Mutual Exclusive versus independent
Projects
• Revenue versus Cost Projects/Alternatives

PW Analysis Procedure

• The PW analysis is quite popular in industry because


all future costs and revenues are transformed to
equivalent monetary units NOW /Time “0”

This Criteria work as follows;


1. Convert all cash flows to Present Worth (same as
present value) using MARR
2. Precede costs by minus sign; receipts by plus sign
3. The numerical value obtain is called NPV/PW

10

4
10/11/2024

Present Worth Analysis


Evaluation
Mutually exclusive projects
• For one project, it is economically viable if PW ≥ 0.
• For 2 or more alternatives, select the one with the
(numerically) largest PW value.

Independent Projects
• Select all projects with PW ≥ 0
• However, in practice a budget limit exists (details in chapter 12)

REMEMBER: This Evaluation is for the case when


alternatives have equal life

11

Example 1: Selection of Alternatives


by Present Worth Criteria
For the alternatives shown below, which should be selected if they
are (a) mutually exclusive; (b) independent?

Project ID Present Worth


A $ 30,000
B $ 12,500
C $ — 4,000
D $ 2,000

Solution: (a) Select numerically largest PW; alternative A


(b) Select all with PW > 0; projects A, B & D

12

5
10/11/2024

Example 2: PW evaluation of equal-life


Mutually Exclusive alternatives
• Alternative X has a first cost of $20,000, an operating cost of $9,000 per year, and a $5,000
salvage value after 5 years.
• Alternative Y has a first cost $35,000 with an operating cost of $4,000 per year and a
salvage value of $7,000 after 5 years.
• At a MARR of 12% per year, which should be selected based on PW?

Solution: Cash flow diagram ? Any one ?


Find PW at MARR and select numerically larger PW value
• Convert all cash flows
PWX = —20,000 — 9000(P/A,12%,5) + 5000(P/F,12%,5) to Present Worth
(same as present
= —$49,606 value) using MARR
PWY = —35,000 — 4000(P/A,12%,5) + 7000(P/F,12%,5)
• Precede costs by
= —$45,447 minus sign; receipts
by plus sign
Practice: Example
Select alternative Y 5.1

13

Class Practice: PW Analysis


Electric Gas powered Solar
powered powered
First Cost($) ‒4500 ‒3500 ‒6000
Annual Operating Costs ‒900 ‒700 ‒50
($/year)
Salvage value S ($) 200 350 100
Life years 8 8 8
10% Single Payments Uniform Series Factors

n Compoun Present Sinking Compound Capital Present


d Amount Worth Fund (A/F) Amount Recovery Worth (P/A)
(F/P) (P/F) (F/A) (A/P)
8 2.1436 0.4665 0.08744 11.4359 0.18744 5.3349

PWE = ‒4500 ‒ 900( P/A ,10%,8) + 200( P/F ,10%,8) = ‒$9208


PWG = ‒3500 ‒ 700( P/A ,10%,8) + 350( P/F ,10%,8) =‒$7071
PWS = ‒6000 ‒ 50( P/A ,10%,8) + 100( P/F ,10%,8)= ‒$6220
‒$6220 Solar powered alternative should be selected
14

6
10/11/2024

PW of Different-Life
Alternatives
• For alternatives with unequal lives the rule is:
“PW must be compared over the same number of years”

• This is called “equal service alternatives”


requirement (i.e., alternatives must end at the same
time)… Why its important ?

• Because if this condition is not meet, For COST


ALTERNATIVES (which involves only cost) will always
favor the shorter-lived mutually exclusive alternative,
even if it is not the more economical choice, because
fewer periods of costs are involved

15

PW of Different-Life
Alternatives
The following are two equal ways of “meeting the
equal service” requirements:
1. Least Common Multiple (LCM) of alternative
lives
Compare the PW of alternatives over a period of time
equal to the least common multiple (LCM) of their
estimated lives
2. Study Period Approach
Compare the PW of alternatives using a specified
study period of n years. This approach does not
necessarily consider the useful life of an alternative.
The study period is also called the planning horizon.
16

7
10/11/2024

LCM of Alternative Lives


Approach
• This approach compare the PW of alternatives
over a period of time equal to the least common
multiple (LCM) of their estimated lives
Three assumptions of LCM Approach
1. The service provided is needed for LCM years or
more.
2. The selected alternative is repeated over each
life cycle of the LCM in exactly the same manner.
3. Cash flow estimates are the same in every life
cycle (i.e., change are exactly by the inflation or deflation
rate only)

17

Evaluation of Present Worth


Using a LCM Approach
1. First, find the LCM for the life of alternatives
2. Second, expand the cash flows for each
alternatives till the LCM period …thus meeting
the equal service requirement
3. Calculate the present worth for all the
alternatives
4. Use the criteria used for “Equal Life Alternatives”
to evaluate the alternatives

18

8
10/11/2024

Study Period Approach

• Compare the PW of alternatives using a


specified study period of n years. This
approach does not necessarily consider the
useful life of an alternative. The study period
is also called the planning horizon.

• A study period analysis is necessary if the


first assumption of LCM approach (i.e., The
service provided is needed for LCM years or more )
cannot be made.

19

Evaluation of Present Worth


Using a Study Period

• For the study period approach, a time horizon is chosen


over which the economic analysis is conducted, and only
those cash flows which occur during that time period are
considered relevant to the analysis

• Once a study period is specified, all cash flows after this time
are ignored

• Salvage value is the estimated market value at the end of


study period (at this stage we will just use Salvage value as it is)

• Short study periods are often defined by management when


business goals are short-term
20

9
10/11/2024

Example:
Use of PW criteria for Different-Life
Alternatives

National Homebuilders, Inc., plans to purchase new cut-and-finish


equipment. Two manufacturers offered the estimates below.
Vendor A Vendor B
First cost, $ 15,000 18,000
Annual cost, $/year 3,500 3,100
Salvage value, $ 1,000 2,000
Life, years 6 9

(a) Determine which vendor should be selected on the basis of a


present worth comparison, if the MARR is 15% per year.

(b) National Homebuilders has a standard practice of evaluating all


options over a 5-year period. If a study period of 5 years is used
and the salvage values are not expected to change, which vendor
should be selected?
21

(a) Determine which vendor should be selected on the basis of a present worth
comparison, if the MARR is 15% per year.
What is LCM of 6 and 9 ?
Solution: LCM = 18 years; We draw its cash flows to make things easy
To meet the criteria of equal service
alternatives …we extended the
project life from 6 years to 18
years for the first alternative (& 9 to
18 for 2nd alternative)

NOW You have equal life two


alternatives(equal service
condition meet) with cash
flows…you can use standard
procedure to obtain the present
value of both and compare it.

22

10
10/11/2024

PW Calculations
PWA = -15,000 ―15,000(P/F,15%,6) +1000(P/F,15%,6) ―15,000(P/F,15%,12)
+1000(P/F,15%,12) + 1000(P/F,15%,18) ― 3,500(P/A,15%,18)
= $ ― 45,036
PWB = -18,000 ― 18,000(P/F,15%,9)+ 2000(P/F,15%,9)+ 2000(P/F,15%,18)
― 3100(P/A,15%,18)
= $ – 41,384
Which one to select ? … A or B ? Select vender B
23

Use of Study Period Approach


Solution (b): Now
comparison is required for
5 years. Since cash flows
are of 6 years …no cycle
repeat is required

Salvage value is the


estimated market
value at the end of
study period

We r told here…to
PWA = -15,000 ― 3,500(P/A,15%,5) +1000(P/F,15%,5) that salvage value is
= $ ― 26, 236 not expected to
change
PWB = -18,000 ― 3100(PA,15%,5) + 2000(P/F,15%,5)
= $ – 27,397

Which one to select ? … A or B ? Select vender A


24

11
10/11/2024

PW of Different-Life Alternatives
for independent alternatives

• Can we use LCM approach for Independent projects ?

• For independent projects , use of the LCM approach is


unnecessary since each project is compared to the do-nothing
alternative, not to each other

• Equal-service requirement is not a problem

• Use the MARR to determine the PW over the respective life of


each project, and select all projects with a PW 0

25

Future Worth Analysis


• Future Worth is exactly like PW analysis, except
“Future Worth Must compare alternatives for equal
service (i.e. alternatives must end at the same time)”

• The selection guidelines for FW analysis are the


same as for PW analysis; FW ≥ 0 means the MARR
is met or exceeded

• For two or more mutually exclusive alternatives,


select the one with the numerically largest FW
value.

26

12
10/11/2024

Future Worth Analysis

• If life of two alternatives are not equal, one need to fulfill


the equal service requirement for using FW criteria.

• Two ways to compare equal service:


1. Least common multiple (LCM) of lives
2. Specified study period

• Same way as used for Present Worth Analysis expect


once life of alternatives are equal for cash flows, one
need to compare the Future Worth instead of Present
Worth

27

Example: Future Worth Analysis


(Problem 5.26)
An industrial engineer is considering two robots
for purchase by a fiber-optic manufacturing
company. Robot X will have a first cost of
$80,000, an annual maintenance and operation
(M&O) cost of $30,000, and a $40,000 salvage
value.
Robot Y will have a first cost of $97,000, an annual
M&O cost of $27,000, and a $50,000 salvage
value. Which should be selected on the basis of a
future worth comparison at an interest rate of 15%
per year? Use a 3-year study period.
28

13
10/11/2024

Future Worth Analysis


(Problem 5.26)
$40,000 $50,000

F=? i = 15%
i = 15%
F=?
0 1 2 3
0 1 2 3
A = $30,000 A = $27,000

$80,000 $97,000 Robot Y CF


Robot X CF

FWX = – 80,000(F/P,15%,3) – 30,000(F/A,15%,3) + 40,000


= – 80,000(1.5209) – 30,000(3.4725) + 40,000
= $-185,847
FWY = – 97,000(F/P,15%,3) – 27,000(F/A,15%,3) + 50,000
= – 97,000(1.5209) – 27,000(3.4725) + 50,000
= $ – 191,285 Select robot X
29

Capitalized Worth Analysis

• The capitalized worth method is especially useful in


problems involving public projects with indefinite
lives, or permanent endowments(or donations) for
charitable organizations and universities

• Capitalized worth is the present worth of all


revenues or expenses over an infinite length of
time

• If only expenses(cost alternative) are considered this


is referred as capitalized cost

30

14
10/11/2024

Capitalized Worth Analysis


• The Capitalized Worth of a series of end-of-period
uniform payments A, with interest at i% per period, is
CW (or CC) = A(P/A, i%, n) where n→∞
As N becomes very large (if the A are perpetual payments)
1
1−
(1+𝑖)𝑛
• We already know that P/A is given as P/A= 𝐴
𝑖
1
• The term in the bracket becomes as n tends to infinity
𝑖
• So, the above equations become as:
1
Capitaized Worth (or Capitalized Costs) = 𝐴
𝑖
𝐴 𝐴𝑊
CW or CC = or
𝑖 𝑖

31

Capitalized Worth Analysis

• The equation can be understood by “thinking” of …..


“ What present amount invested today at “i” will enable an
investor to periodically withdraw an amount A forever”

• If investor withdraw more than amount A each period,


he/she will be withdrawing a portion of the initial
principle and eventually it will exhaust

• If amount being withdrawn each period is equals the


interest earned on the principal for that period, the
principal remains intact, thus series of withdraw will continue
forever

32

15
10/11/2024

Example: Capitalized Worth


(Costs) Problems

• Capitalized worth (or costs) type problems vary


from very simple to somewhat complex

• Consider a “simple” Capitalized Cost type


problem

• A person want to donate $100, 000 for


scholarships in a university. Consider, 20%
per year interest rate; How much money can
be withdrawn forever from this account?

33

Example: Capitalized Worth


(Costs) Problems
• Draw a Cash Flow Diagram
$ A per year = ?

1 2 3 - - - - - - ∞

Solution: CC= A (or AW)


$100,000
i
Or AW= CC (i)

A = $100,000(0.20) = $20,000 per period

34

16
10/11/2024

Capitalized Worth (Costs)


―Recurring and Non-recurring
More complex problems will have two types of costs
associated;
1. Recurring – Periodic and repeat
2. Non-recurring– One-time present or future cash flows

• For more complex CC problems one must separate the


recurring from the non-recurring

• You will not just face problems calculating Capital


Costs of a single amount (like the previous
example) but you confronts situations in which you
have to make selection among alternatives using CC
criteria

35

Capitalized Cost Analysis


• For the comparison of two alternatives on the basis
of capitalized cost, you will use formula (CC = A/i)

• So find the A value & CCT (the sum of recurring and


non-recurring costs) for each alternative and select
the one which has lowest present worth of costs
(or equal to say… Lowest capitalized costs).

• Alternatives are automatically compared for


same life period because CCT represents the total
present worth of financing and maintaining a given
alternative forever (i.e., infinity).
36

17
10/11/2024

Summary: How to calculate CC and A and how to use


CC criteria to select an alternative
Cost (cash flows) Recurring
(Step 1) Periodic and repeated

Non-recurring A in only one cost Uniform Equal


One time present or future Cycle: e.g., cash
cash flows (e.g., first cost, Recurring
cost once in 25th year etc)
flow every 5th year or Amounts: e.g.,
every 20th year Annuity Series (say
A2)
Non-recurring Convert this to a Uniform
Convert it to PW (will be PW Series (say A1)
of all non-recurring costs
for whole life)
(Step 2) Add A1 and A2 to
get one Uniform
Series (Annuity
Divide the value of Uniform
Annuity Series by “i" Series) starting
Add values of step 4 and
Step 2 to obtain CC of (using CC= A/i) to get the from time 0 and
overall cash flows value of “Capitalized worth” continue till infinity
(Step 5) for uniform series (Step 3)
(Step 4)
Select the alternative
with lowest capitalized Step 3 can be skipped if you convert both recurring costs
costs directly to present worth

37

Thank You

38

18

You might also like