Project Report

Analysis of Factors Affecting Cupcake Height

for
Dr. D.C. Montgomery
IEE 572

Team 12
Celeste Null
Jiun-Yan Shiau
Katina Skinner
Chii-Liang Wee

TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT
................................................................................................................................................................................
VII

INTRODUCTION
................................................................................................................................................................................
1
RESPONSE CHARACTERISTICS
................................................................................................................................................................................
1
FACTORS AND FACTOR LEVELS
................................................................................................................................................................................
1
RECIPE FOR CHOCOLATE CUPCAKES
................................................................................................................................................................................
2
MEASUREMENT
................................................................................................................................................................................
2
EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN
................................................................................................................................................................................
2
Linear Model
.............................................................................................................................................................
3
Quadratic Model
.............................................................................................................................................................
3
EXPERIMENTAL CONDITIONS
................................................................................................................................................................................
4
RESULTS
................................................................................................................................................................................
4
Linear Model
.............................................................................................................................................................
4
Quadratic Model
ii

.............................................................................................................................................................
6
RESIDUAL DIAGNOSTICS
................................................................................................................................................................................
9
STANDARD DEVIATION OF CUPCAKE HEIGHT AS A RESPONSE
................................................................................................................................................................................
12
TIME TO SPOILAGE OF CUPCAKE AS A RESPONSE
................................................................................................................................................................................
13
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
................................................................................................................................................................................
14
REFERENCES
................................................................................................................................................................................
15

iii

LIST OF FIGURES

TABLE 1. HIGH AND LOW LEVELS FOR EACH FACTOR

................................................................................................................................................................................
1
TABLE 2. UNCONTROLLABLE FACTORS AND METHODS TO AVOID DATA CONTAMINATION
................................................................................................................................................................................
2
TABLE 3. SUMMARY OF EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN
................................................................................................................................................................................
3
TABLE 4. MATRIX DESIGN FOR LINEAR MODEL
................................................................................................................................................................................
3
TABLE 5. ALIASING PATTERN OF LINEAR DESIGN
................................................................................................................................................................................
3
TABLE 6. MATRIX DESIGN FOR AXIAL POINTS
................................................................................................................................................................................
4
TABLE 7. SCREENING DESIGN HEIGHT RESULTS
................................................................................................................................................................................
4
TABLE 8. ANOVA FOR THE FULL LINEAR MODEL
................................................................................................................................................................................
5
TABLE 9. MATRIX FOR ADDITION OF AXIAL RUNS
................................................................................................................................................................................
6
TABLE 10. ANOVA FOR THE FULL QUADRATIC MODEL PREDICTING HEIGHT
................................................................................................................................................................................
7
TABLE 11. COEFFICIENTS AND EFFECT SIGNIFICANCE
................................................................................................................................................................................
7
TABLE 12. ANOVA FOR THE PARTIAL QUADRATIC MODEL (A, C AND A2 INCLUDED)
iv

.................................................................................................................................................................
7
TABLE 13. COEFFICIENT ESTIMATES FOR PARTIAL QUADRATIC MODEL
................................................................................................................................................................................
7
TABLE 14. ANOVA FOR THE QUADRATIC MODEL PREDICTING STANDARD DEVIATION
................................................................................................................................................................................
12
TABLE 15. COEFFICIENT ESTIMATES FOR QUADRATIC MODEL PREDICTING STANDARD DEVIATION
................................................................................................................................................................................
12

FIGURE 1. HALF NORMAL PROBABILITY PLOT OF HEIGHT EFFECTS

................................................................................................................................................................................
5
FIGURE 2. EFFECT PLOT OF FACTOR A
................................................................................................................................................................................
6
FIGURE 3. CONTOUR PLOT
................................................................................................................................................................................
8
FIGURE 4. RESPONSE SURFACE PLOT
................................................................................................................................................................................
9
FIGURE 5. NORMAL PROBABILITY PLOT OF RESIDUALS
................................................................................................................................................................................
10
FIGURE 6. RESIDUALS VS. PREDICTED VALUE
................................................................................................................................................................................
10
FIGURE 7. RESIDUALS VS. RUN NUMBER
................................................................................................................................................................................
11
FIGURE 8. RESIDUALS VS. TEMPERATURE (FACTOR A)
................................................................................................................................................................................
11
FIGURE 9. RESIDUALS VS. MILK (FACTOR C)
v

.................................................................................................................................................................
12
FIGURE 10. RESPONSE SURFACE PLOT FOR STANDARD DEVIATION MODEL
................................................................................................................................................................................
13

vi

ABSTRACT
Two phases of experimental design were conducted to determine the factors and factor settings
that affect cupcake height and standard deviation of cupcake height. The factors studied were the
baking temperature, the amount of baking powder, the amount of milk, and the amount of baking
soda. The factor levels are shown in the table below.
Factor
Oven Temperature
Baking Powder Amount
Milk Amount
Baking Soda Amount

Low Level
275
teaspoon
cup
teaspoon

Center Level
350
teaspoon
5/12 cup
1 teaspoon

High Level
425
teaspoon
cup
2 teaspoons

The first phase of experimentation was a fractional factorial 24-1 with one replication. The results
of this phase showed that the model had curvature. As a result, the second phase that was
conducted was six axial points set in the face of the original cube. Results from the second phase
produced a model to predict the average height of the cupcakes in a batch. The model to predict
the standard deviation was not significant. This height equation involves the oven temperature
and the amount of milk and is shown below.
y-hat = 4.24 + 1.39*temperature + 0.55*milk - 1.22*temperature 2
Temperature at the median level and milk at the high level should be used to produce the
maximum cupcake height. Using the average standard deviation from all the runs, a three-sigma
prediction interval was calculated to be plus or minus 0.33 centimeters. Using the equation for
maximum height and the prediction limits, the team expects to be able to consistently produce
cupcakes with heights between 4.46 and 5.12 centimeters.

vii

INTRODUCTION
This project was designed to evaluate which factors affect, and how they affect, the height of a
baked cupcake. The project team used designed experiments and statistical methods to study
these effects.

RESPONSE CHARACTERISTICS
The height of the baked cupcake was the main response studied. The height of a cupcake
indicates the lightness and moistness of the cupcake, both important quality characteristics.
Measurements will be taken using a calibrated ruler.
The team studied one other characteristic of the cupcake. This was the amount of time in days
that it takes for the cupcake to spoil. This time to spoil response was selected to enable the team
to determine if the factors chosen affect the life of the cupcake (i.e., is the cupcake recipe, as
varied in this project, robust to spoiling time?).

FACTORS

AND

FACTOR LEVELS

Using knowledge of the cupcake baking process, the team identified four controllable factors
thought to possibly affect the height of the cupcake. These factors are listed below:
1. temperature of the oven
2. amount of baking powder
3. amount of milk
4. amount of baking soda
Changes from the original plan (see Attachment factor baking time was replaced with amount
of milk) reflect new knowledge about the baking process. The team has learned that baking
power definitely interacts with both heat and moisture. The factor levels for each of the variables
are listed in Table 1.
Table 1. High and Low Levels for Each Factor
Factor
Oven Temperature
Baking Powder Amount
Milk Amount
Baking Soda Amount

Low Level
275
teaspoon
cup
teaspoon

Center Level
350
teaspoon
5/12 cup
1 teaspoon

High Level
425
teaspoon
cup
2 teaspoons

Other, uncontrollable factors have been identified which may affect the baking process. These
uncontrollable factors and methods that the team will use to prevent contamination of the data
are shown in Table 2. The team will also randomize the runs.

Table 2. Uncontrollable Factors and Methods to Avoid Data Contamination

Factor
Variation of oven temperature within the
oven
Variation of oven temperature during
cooking time

Uneven baking within the muffin-pan

Temperature and humidity outside the oven

RECIPE

FOR

Method
Cupcakes will be placed only in the very
center of the oven, and only one batch will
be baked at a time.
The oven will be recalibrated before each
batch is placed in the oven to ensure
accuracy of oven thermometer. The oven
also has a thermometer that shows the
actual temperature in the oven.
Pans used are not dull or dark and have a
non-stick finish.
The cakes will be measured immediately
upon removal from the oven. Cakes will
not be baked on days with abnormal
temperature or humidity. Cakes will be
baked at approximately the same time of
day.

CHOCOLATE CUPCAKES1

2/3 cup cake flour

7/12 cup sugar
1/4 cup cocoa
milk2

cup shortening
1 large egg
baking soda2

1/3 teaspoon salt

1/3 teaspoon vanilla extract
double acting baking powder2

Preheat oven2. Place liners in 3-inch muffin pan. Into large bowl, measure all cupcake
ingredients. With mixer at low speed, beat until well mixed, constantly scraping bowl. At high
speed, beat 5 minutes, scraping the bowl occasionally. Spoon into muffin-pan cups, filling each
half full. Bake for 20 minutes. Cool in pans on wire racks 10 minutes, then remove from pans
and cool completely on racks.

MEASUREMENT
Measurement methods were designed to help insure that the single replicate is a good indicator of
the true results. Five cupcakes were baked for each batch, one in each of five of the centermost
holes in the pan. The average of the five cake heights was used as the height response and the
standard deviation of the height was used to measure batch variation.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN
The experiment consisted of two phases: initial fractional factorial portion with center points
(linear model) and axial runs (quadratic model). Table 3 summarizes the experiment as a whole.

1
2

The recipe was reduced by two-thirds in order to eliminate waste.

See factor level for detail.
2

Table 3. Summary of Experimental Design

Experiment
Linear Model
Quadratic Model

Design

Number of Runs

24-1 with center points

8+4

Axial runs

Total

18

Linear Model
The linear model was a 24-1 fractional factorial with one replication. The matrix for the design is
shown in Table 4. The aliasing pattern is shown in Table 5.
Table 4. Matrix Design for Linear Model
Run
A B C D Run Order*
1
- - - 2
2
- - + +
7
3
- + - +
1
4
- + + 4
5
+ - - +
8
6
+ - + 3
7
+ + - 5
8
+ + + +
6
* Run order obtained by randomly drawing run numbers out of a hat.
Table 5. Aliasing Pattern of Linear Design
Aliasing
Pattern
I = ABCD
A = BCD
B = ACD
C = ABD
D = ABC
AB = CD
AC = BD
AD = BC

Description
Identity or Defining Relation
Main effect (temperature) aliased with 3-way interaction.
Main effect (baking powder) aliased with 3-way interaction.
Main effect (milk) aliased with 3-way interaction.
Main effect (baking soda) aliased with 3-way interaction.
Temperature/baking powder interaction aliased with milk/soda interaction.
Temperature/milk interaction aliased with baking powder/soda interaction.
Temperature/baking soda interaction aliased with baking powder/milk interaction.

Table 4 reflects the current knowledge of the process by aliasing suspected significant
interactions (temperature/baking powder and baking powder/milk) with interactions thought to
have very insignificant effects.
Quadratic Model
Six axial runs were necessary to model the quadratic portion of the model. Because of the factor
settings, the alpha was set at 1.00, thus creating a face centered central composite design. The
matrix used and the run order is shown in Table 6.
3

Table 6. Matrix Design for Axial Points

Std Run Order
13
14
15
16
17
18

A
+
0
0
0
0

B
0
0
+
0
0

C
0
0
0
0
+

Run Order
3
4
5
1
6
2

EXPERIMENTAL CONDITIONS
During experimentation the team monitored the conditions which might have affected the
responses. Measures were taken to ensure that conditions were as similar as possible for both the
screening and modeling phases of the experiment. Temperature was maintained at
approximately 71 degrees Fahrenheit, and humidity was consisently low. Raw materials were
taken from the same sources (i.e., the same bag of flour, bottle of vanilla, etc.).

RESULTS
The results of the two experimental phases are shown in this section. Statistical analysis of the
results was also performed and is documented below.
Linear Model
As discussed earlier the screening design was a 24-1 fractional factorial with I = ABCD as the
defining relation. Five cupcakes were made from each batch or run. The results of the screening
design, which show average cupcake height and standard deviation of cupcake height (of the five
cupcakes in the batch), are shown in Table 7.
Table 7. Screening Design Height Results
Std Run Order
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

A
+
+
+
+
0
0
0
0

B
+
+
+
+
0
0
0
0

C
+
+
+
+
0
0
0
0

D
+
+
+
+
0
0
0
0

Height (cm)
1.65
1.62
1.14
2.55
3.62
4.73
4.81
4.95
4.50
4.68
4.05
4.10

Standard Deviation (cm)

0.1322
0.1037
0.0962
0.1732
0.1304
0.1956
0.2584
0.1118
0.1620
0.1643
0.0711
0.1140

D
E
S
IG
N
-E
X
P
E
R
TP
lo
t
H
e
ig
h
t
A
:
B
:
C
:
D
:

T
e
m
p
B
.P
o
w
d
e
r
M
ilk
B
.S
o
d
a

Half Normal % probability

Statistical analysis3 of the results showed two important things. First, the only effect that proved
significant was temperature, or factor A. Second, the center points were significant. These
results, in the form of a half normal probability plot of the effects and an ANOVA table are
shown below in Figure 1 and Table 8. The effects plot for factor A (temperature) is shown in
Figure 2.
Half Normal plot
99
97
95

90
85
80
70
60
40
20
0

0.00

0.70

1.39

2.09

2.79

Effect

Figure 1. Half Normal Probability Plot of Height Effects

Table 8. ANOVA for the Full Linear Model4
Source
Sum of Squares
Main Effects
17.523
Two-Way Interactions
0.155
Residual Error
4.244
Curvature
4.003
Pure Error
0.241
Total
21.922

3
4

DF
4
3
4
1
3
11

Mean Square F Value

4.381
4.13
0.052
0.05
1.061
4.003
49.92
0.080

Prob > F
0.099
0.984
0.006

Both Minitab 11 and Design Expert were used to analyze the data.
Analysis of variance using only factor A in the model does not yield contradictory results.
5

Effect Graph
D
E
S
IG
N
-E
X
P
E
R
TP
lot
A
ctual H
eight

4.95

Actual Height

4.315
3.68
3.045
2.41
1.775
1.14

A-

A+
Temp

Figure 2. Effect Plot of Factor A

Using the information gained from the above analysis the team determined that results could not
be predicted with the information currently available. The significance of the center points
indicated the need for data from the axial points so that a quadratic model could be fit. Study of
the residuals is not included in this section because the model created from this data is considered
worthless.
Quadratic Model
Table 9 shows the height and standard deviation results from the design.
Table 9. Matrix for Addition of Axial Runs
Std Run Order
13
14
15
16
17
18

A
+
0
0
0
0

B
0
0
+
0
0

C
0
0
0
0
+

Height (cm)
1.53
5.23
4.34
4.29
2.36
1.29

Standard Deviation (cm)

0.0758
0.1525
0.0962
0.0822
0.1342
0.0758

Because the original design was a half fraction, a factor was omitted to allow for the center
points. The variable which process knowledge determined to be the most likely least significant
was omitted. This variable was D, or baking soda.
Statistical analysis of the results showed that the important factors were temperature (factor A),
milk (factor C), and temperature squared (A2). The ANOVA tables for the full quadratic model
are in Tables 10 and 11. The ANOVA tables for the partial quadratic model are shown in
Tables 12 and 13.

Table 10. ANOVA for the Full Quadratic Model Predicting Height
Source
Block
Model
Residual
Lack of Fit
Pure Error
Total

Sum of Squares
0.120
29.150
3.090
2.850
0.240
32.360

DF
1
9
7
4
3
17

Mean Square F Value

0.120
3.240
7.33
0.440
0.710
8.89
0.080

Prob > F
0.0078
0.0517

Table 11. Coefficients and Effect Significance

Factor
Intercept
Block 1
Block 2
A- Temp
B- B. Powder
C- Milk
A2
B2
C2
AB
AC
BC

Coefficient
Estimate
4.240
0.120
-0.120
1.390
0.160
0.550
-1.210
0.310
-0.330
0.120
-0.016
0.059

DF
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

Standard
Error
0.26

t for H0
Coeff=0

Prob > |
t|

0.21
0.21
0.21
0.41
0.41
0.41
0.24
0.24
0.24

6.620
0.780
2.620
-2.980
0.770
-0.800
0.530
-0.069
0.250

0.0003
0.4608
0.0346
0.0206
0.4672
0.4481
0.6147
0.9468
0.8098

Table 12. ANOVA for the Partial Quadratic Model (A, C and A2 included)
Source
Block
Model
Residual
Lack of Fit
Pure Error
Total

Sum of Squares
0.120
28.320
3.920
3.680
0.240
32.360

DF
1
3
13
10
3
17

Mean Square F Value

0.120
9.440
31.27
0.300
0.370
4.59
0.080

Prob > F
0.0001
0.1181

Table 13. Coefficient Estimates for Partial Quadratic Model

Factor
Intercept
Block 1
Block 2
A- Temp
C- Milk
A2

Coefficient
Estimate
4.24
0.12
-0.12
1.39
0.55
-1.22

DF
1
1
1
1
1

Standard
Error
0.19

t for H0
Coeff=0

Prob > |t|

0.17
0.17
0.27

8.01
3.17
-4.44

< 0.0001
0.0074
0.0007

Using factors A, C, and A2, the model is:

y-hat = 4.24 + 1.39*temperature + 0.55*milk - 1.22*temperature2
The contour plot and three dimensional response surface plots for this model are shown in
Figures 3 and 4.

Height

1.000

DESIGN-EXPERTPlot
CodedFactors:
X= Temp
Y= Milk

0.500

3.13027
Milk

CodedConstants:
B. Powder =0.000

0.000

2.62929 3.63124
2.12831

4.13222

-0.500

-1.000
-1.000

-0.500

0.000

Temp

Figure 3. Contour Plot

0.500

1.000

DESIGN-EXPERTPlot
CodedFactors:
5.1832
X= Temp
Y= Milk
4.15673

Height

3.13027
CodedConstants
:
B. Powder =0.0 2.1038
1.07733

1.0

0.5
Milk

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.0

-0.5

0.5
0.0
Temp

1.0

Figure 4. Response Surface Plot

RESIDUAL DIAGNOSTICS
Various residual plots are shown in this section. Figures 5 - 8 show diagnostic plots of the
model. The residuals are normally distributed, and the equality of variance assumption does not
seem to be violated.

Normal plot of residuals

DESIGN-EXPERTPlot
Height
99
Normal % probability

95
90
80
70
50
30
20
10
5
1

-2.62

-1.51

-0.40

0.71

1.83

Studentized Residuals

Figure 5. Normal Probability Plot of Residuals

Residuals vs. Predicted

3.00

Studentized Residuals

DESIGN-EXPERT Plot
Height

1.50

0.00

-1.50

-3.00
1.20

2.17

3.14

4.11

Predicted

Figure 6. Residuals vs. Predicted Value

10

5.08

Residuals vs. Run

3.00

Studentized Residuals

DESIGN-EXPERTPlot
Height

1.50

0.00

-1.50

-3.00
1

11

13

15

17

Run Number

Figure 7. Residuals vs. Run Number

Residuals vs. A: Temp

Studentized Residuals

DESIGN-EXPERTPlot
Height

3.00

1.50

0.00

-1.50

-3.00
-1

Factor

Figure 8. Residuals vs. Temperature (Factor A)

11

Residuals vs. C: Milk

3.00

Studentized Residuals

DESIGN-EXPERTPlot
Height

1.50

0.00

-1.50

-3.00
-1

Factor

Figure 9. Residuals vs. Milk (Factor C)

STANDARD DEVIATION

OF

CUPCAKE HEIGHT

AS A

RESPONSE

Analysis of variance of the standard deviation of the height as a response shows that none of the
factors were significant to predict the standard deviation. Tables 14 and 15 show the ANOVA
for the quadratic model to predict standard deviation.
Table 14. ANOVA for the Quadratic Model Predicting Standard Deviation
Source
Block
Model
Residual
Lack of Fit
Pure Error
Total

Sum of Squares
0.006
0.015
0.019
0.014
0.006
0.041

DF
1
9
7
4
3
7

Mean Square F Value

0.006
0.002
0.59
0.003
0.003
1.72
0.002

Prob > F
0.7751
0.3419

Table 15. Coefficient Estimates for Quadratic Model Predicting Standard Deviation
Factor
Intercept
Block 1
Block 2
A- Temp

Coefficient
Estimate
0.110
0.016
-0.016
0.020

DF
1
1
1

Standard
Error
0.021

t for H0
Coeff=0
5.245

Prob > |t|

0.017

1.180

0.2756

12

0.0000

B- B. Powder
C- Milk
A2
B2
C2
AB
AC
BC

0.010
-0.001
-0.016
-0.009
0.048
0.001
-0.016
-0.013

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

0.017
0.017
0.032
0.032
0.032
0.019
0.019
0.019

0.590
-0.088
-0.510
-0.290
1.490
0.072
-0.870
-0.710

0.5752
0.9322
0.6285
0.7809
0.1806
0.9443
0.4130
0.4995

A model predicting the natural log of the standard deviation produces virtually the same results,
and ANOVA for the ln(s) is left out for space sake. Although the ANOVA does not show that the
model to predict the standard deviation is significant, study of the responses and the response
surface plot (Figure 10) show reveals that the standard deviation is minimal at the center points.

DESIGN-EXPERTPlot

Stdev of height

CodedFactors:
X= Temp 0.152331
Y= Milk
0.127665
CodedConsta0.102999
nts:
B. Powder =
-1.0
0.0783334

0.0536675

1.0

1.0

0.5

0.5

0.0
Milk

0.0
-0.5

-0.5
-1.0

-1.0

Temp

Figure 10. Response Surface Plot for Standard Deviation Model

TIME

TO

SPOILAGE

OF

CUPCAKE

AS A

RESPONSE

Observations were made daily of the cupcakes from the linear model. The team looked for mold
spores, discoloration, and change in odor. After not finding any evidence of spoilage after two
weeks, the team concluded that this recipe is robust to spoilage for these factor settings and threw
them away.

13

CONCLUSIONS

AND

RECOMMENDATIONS

The team determined a recipe for maximum cupcake height using the equation for average
height. The equation: y-hat = 4.24 + 1.39*temperature + 0.55*milk - 1.22*temperature 2 estimates
the maximum height to be 0.479 centimeters. This can be accomplished by setting the oven
temperature at the median level (0 or 350 degrees) and the milk at the high level (1 or 2/3 cup).
The level of baking soda and baking powder can be set at any level, but medial levels are
recommended regarding the discussion on the standard deviation of the height discussed earlier.
The team used the average standard deviation (the only part of the standard deviation model that
was significant) to calculate three-sigma prediction limits. This indicates that the cupcake height
should be plus or minus 0.330 centimeters, or between 4.46 and 5.12 centimeters.

14

REFERENCES
Coulson, Zoe, Good Housekeeping Illustrated Cookbook. Hearst Books of New York, 1980.

15