Quantitative Risk

Assessment
 QRA
 Identify incident scenarios & evaluate the risk by defining the
probability of failure, probability of various consequence & potential
impact of those consequences.

 Risk is a function of :-
 Risk = F (s, c, f)

 S = Hypothetical scenario
 C = Estimated Consequence
 F = Estimated Frequency

 CPQRA consists of Risk Analysis, Risk Assessment.

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 Difference – QRA/HAZOP

QRA HAZOP
QRA provides numerical (quantitative) QRA provides numerical (qualitative)
estimates to understand risk exposure to estimates to understand risk exposure to
people and environment. people, Assets and environment.

QRA studies account for potential releases

of hazardous material, their consequences Hazop study accounts for abnormal/
(e.g., fire, toxic, explosion, etc.) and Hypothetical Events and their effects in
estimated frequency of occurrence. downstream as well as upstream
Risk is calculated to people Assets hazard analysed qualitatively

Recommendations of QRA are based on the Recommendations are related to Alarms,

mitigation system to reduce the trips to keep the system in safe operation
consequence. mode.
 Difference – QRA/HAZOP
QRA HAZOP

Risk is calculated considering Operating Hazard are analysed using deviation in

condition, wind speed & direction. parameter line by line or by Equipment.

Risk is calculated based on number of

people present in the facility and Consequence are analysed qualitatively and
surrounding areas. not considered the surrounding areas.
Abnormal case are considered in HAZOP
Abnormal case are not considered in QRA study.
study.
 General Steps
 Define potential event sequence/potential incidents – Qualitative
analysis (HAZID) or screening level analysis. Most effective method
is Plant sectionalisation.

 Evaluate incident outcomes – consequence analysis

 Estimate frequencies – Fault tree/Generic database for initial event

sequences or event tree to account for mitigation & post release
events.

 Estimate impact on people, environment & property

 Estimate risk – combine consequence & frequency of each event &

summing over all events.
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 General Steps
 Evaluate the risk.

 Identify major sources of risk & determine if there are cost-effective

process or plant modifications which can be implemented to reduce
risk

 If risk is excessive – identify & prioritize risk reduction measures.

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General Steps

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 Definitions
 Frequency – Number of occurrences per unit time.
 Hazard – chemical or physical condition which has a potential to
cause damage to people, property & Environment
 Incident – Loss of material or energy.
 Event Sequence – A specific unplanned sequence of events
comprising of initiating events & intermediate events that may lead
to an incident
 Initiating event – First event of the event sequence (eg – leak from
pipeline)
 Intermediate event – Event that propagates or mitigates initiating
event (e.g. – operator failure to stop leak from pipeline)

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 Definitions
 Incident outcome – Physical manifestation of incident e.g. – toxic
release, VCE, jet fire, etc.
 Incident outcome case – Quantitative definition of single result of
incident outcome thro specification of sufficient parameters to allow
distinction of this case from all other for the same incident (e.g. – jet
fire results for two or more weather conditions)
 Consequence – Measure of expected effects of an incident
outcome case.
 Likelihood – measure of expected frequency of occurrence
 Probability – likelihood of occurrence over a time interval or
likelihood of occurrence of success or failure

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 Definitions
 Risk Analysis – Development of quantitative estimate of risk based
on Engg. evaluation & mathematical techniques for combining
incident consequences & frequency.
 Risk Assessment – process by which results of risk analysis are
used to make decisions either through relative ranking of risk
reduction strategies or through comparison with risk targets

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 QRA Goals
 To screen or bracket the range of risks for further study: It is often
consequence analysis without frequency part.
 To Evaluate a range of risk reduction measures: Identify major risk
contributors & suggest risk recommendations.
 To prioritize safety investments: Ensure safety investments are
directed to greater risks.
 To estimate employee risk – individual risk
 To estimate public risk – Societal risk
 To meet legal or regulatory authorities
 To assist emergency planning: effect zones to be marked for use in
emergency planning

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 Consequence Analysis
• Release Source:
• Piping Release - Flanges, Valves, Instrument Connections, Piping
corrosion etc.
• Vessel/ Storage Release.
• Weather • Flash Fire/
Toxic

• Release
• Discharge • Dispersion • Radiation
Source

• Explosion
• Alternative
Inputs

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 Consequence Analysis
• Wind Speed/ Roses • Humidity
• Pasquill Stability • Atm./ Substrate Temperature
• Surface Roughness

• Weather • Flash Fire/

Toxic

• Release
• Discharge • Dispersion • Radiation
Source

• Explosion
• Alternative
Inputs

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 Consequence Analysis
 Liquid/ Gas/ Two Phase Release
 Release Chemical

• Weather • Flash Fire/

Toxic

• Release
• Discharge • Dispersion • Radiation
Source

• Explosion
• Alternative
Inputs
• Discharge Calculation from Piping Leak, Catastrophic Rupture, Vent,
Vessel/ Tank leak/Failure

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 Consequence Analysis
• Aerosol Formation • Cloud Dispersion
• Pool Formation • Pool Vaporization

• Weather • Flash Fire/

Toxic

• Release
• Discharge • Dispersion • Radiation
Source

• Explosion
• Alternative
Inputs

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 Consequence Analysis
Possible Flammable outcomes
• BLEVE and Fireballs • Radiation Levels
• Jet Fire • Probit values or Thermal Load in the
Cloud
• Pool Fire

• Weather • Flash Fire/

Toxic

• Release
• Discharge • Dispersion • Radiation
Source

• Explosion
• Alternative
Inputs

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 Consequence Analysis
Vapour Cloud Explosion
• TNT
• TNO Multi-Energy
• Baker Strelow
BLEVE Blast

• Weather • Flash Fire/

Toxic

• Release
• Discharge • Dispersion • Radiation
Source

• Explosion
• Alternative
Inputs

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 Damage Criteria
 Thermal Radiation
 Hazard due to Jet fire and Pool fire will be measured in terms
of Radiation intensity.

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 Damage Criteria
 Explosion Hazards
 Hazard due to Explosion and Pressurized Vessel Burst will be
measured in terms of shock-waves (Over Pressure).

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 Damage Criteria
 Dispersion Hazard
 Dispersion of the flammable vapours of LFL and Half LFL
concentration.
 Dispersion of Toxic gases of ERPG/ IDLH concentration.

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 Frequency Estimation
 Fault Tree Analysis
 Available accident data like CPR 18E – Purple book, OGP, CMPT,
OREDA, etc.
 Event Tree Analysis

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 Probit Equation
 Method of assessing effect of consequences of outcome event on
the Individual.

• P = A + B X Ln(C^n*t)

 Where A, B and n are constant and varies as per first degree burn,
second degree burn or Lethality.
 In case of Toxic release each toxic chemical having different
values depends on its toxicity.

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 Risk
 Individual Risk Per Annum (IRPA)
 Societal Risk
 Location Specific Risk (LSIR)
 Potential Loss of Life (PLL)

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
Individual Risk Per Annum (IRPA)
The Individual risk represents frequency of an Individual Dying
due to LOCs events. The Individual is assumed to be unprotected
and to be present during the total exposure time.
 It is represented as constant risk lines on the topographic map

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 Societal Risk
 Societal risk represents the frequency of having an accident with
N or more people will killed simultaneously.
 People involved are assumed to have some protection.
 Social Risk is presented as an Frequency-Number of death (F-N)
Curve

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 Risk Criteria

Unacceptable region Risk cannot be justified

(10-4 Per annum)

The ALARP or tolerability Tolerable only if further risk

Region (risk is undertaken reduction is impractical, or the cost
Only if a benefit is is not proportionate to the benefit
Desired) gained

Broadly acceptable Negligible risk

Region (10-6 Per annum)
10-6 Per annum

Risk closer to the unacceptable region merit a closer examination of potential risk
reduction measures

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As low as reasonably practicable (ALARP)
 The residual risks are not unduly high and kept as low as
reasonably practicable.

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Residual Risk
 Limitations
Cause of limitation Implication to CPQRA Remedies
Incomplete or Underestimate risk for a Require proper documentation.
inadequate representative set or Involve experienced CPQRA
enumeration of expansive list of practitioners.
incidents incidents Apply alternative enumeration
techniques
Peer review/quality control.
Review by facility design and
operations personnel.
Improper selection Underestimate risk for Involve experienced CPQRA
of incidents all incident groupings practitioners.
Apply alternative enumeration
techniques
Peer review/quality control.
Review by facility design and
operations personnel.

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Cause of limitation
Limitations
Implication to CPQRA
Remedies
Unavailability of Possibility of systematic Secure additional resources for
required data bias data acquisition.
Uncertainty in Expert review/judgment.
consequences, Ensure that knowledgeable people
frequencies, or risk are involved in assessing available
estimates data.
Incorrect prioritization Check results against other models
of major risk or historical incident records;
contributors evaluate sensitivities.

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Cause of limitation
Limitations
Implication to CPQRA
Remedies
Unavailability of Possibility of systematic Secure additional resources for
required data bias data acquisition.
Uncertainty in Expert review/judgment.
consequences, Ensure that knowledgeable people
frequencies, or risk are involved in assessing available
estimates data.
Incorrect prioritization Check results against other models
of major risk or historical incident records;
contributors evaluate sensitivities.

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 Limitations
Cause of limitation Implication to CPQRA Remedies
Consequence or Similar in effect to data Ensure appropriate peer review
frequency model limitations Check results against other models or
assumptions/validity historical incident records
Ensure that models are applied
within the range intended by model
developers
Ensure that mathematical or
numerical approximations that may
be used for convenience do not
compromise results
Use, if feasible, different models
(e.g., a more conservative and a more
optimistic model) to establish the
impact of this type of uncertainty

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 Limitations
Cause of limitation Implication to CPQRA Remedies
Skills unavailable Incorrect preparation Amend scope of work
and analysis

Improper interpretation Acquire expertise through training

of programs, new personnel, or
Results consultants

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THANK YOU

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