Tropical Cyclones: Characteristics and Forecasting

Tropical Cyclones
Characteristics and Forecasting
Horace H. P. Burton and Selvin DeC. Burton

Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology
Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project

Outline
• Introduction
* Definitions
* Characteristics
• Forecast Methods
• Forecast errors
• Probability forecasts

Definitions
• Tropical cyclone
An area of low pressure which develops over
tropical or subtropical waters
• Tropical depression
A weak tropical cyclone in which the maximum
surface wind is 38 mph (62 km/h or 33 kt) or less

Definitions
• Tropical storm
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum surface
wind ranges from 39 to 73 mph (63 to 118 km/h or
34 to 64 kt)
• Hurricane
A tropical cyclone with highest sustained winds 74
mph (119 km/h or 65 kt) or more

Saffir-simpson Scale
Sustained Winds Pressure

Category Knots Km/hour Millibars Damage Level
1 65 – 82 119 – 15 > 980 Low

2 83 – 97 154 – 177 965 - 979 Moderate
3 98 – 113 179 – 209 945 - 964 Extensive
4 114 – 135 211 – 249 920 - 944 Extreme
5 > 135 > 249 < 920 Catastrophic

Tropical Cyclone Characteristics
• Season - June to November
• Average - 9 tropical storms

- 6 hurricanes
• Most active months - August and September
• Movement - west or west northwest

- recurve to east generally in western
and northwestern Atlantic

• Size - 300 to 1500 km in diameter
• Horizontal structure
* Eye - 20 km
* Eyewall - 30 to 50 km
* Spiral bands

• Hurricane force winds generally extend out about
100 km (60 miles) from the centre
• Storm force winds may extend out as much as 500

km (300 miles)
• Maximum wind speeds between 12 and 50 km

from centre

Tropical Cyclone Forecasting
• Early and precise warnings (forecasts) do not
necessarily remove the risk of damage or loss or
life, but the effects may be significantly reduced
• Current inaccuracies in forecast dictate over

warning
• False warnings can produce an attitude of

scepticism

Forecasting Methods
• Forecasting methods have evolve to become more
complex
* Pre 1960 - simple subjective methods
• cloud types and motion, swells, pressure
* Post 1960 - more sophisticated objective
methods
• complex statistical techniques and computer models

Forecasting Methods
• A tropical cyclone forecast involves the prediction
of several interrelated features, including
* The track, winds, rainfall, storm surge, areas
threatened
• NHC normally issues a forecast every 6 hours for

period extending out to 72 hours
• Official forecast is based on the guidance obtained

from a variety of subjective and objective models
Forecast Errors
• Forecast errors arise from
* A lack of a full understanding of the formation
and growth of tropical cyclones
* The limitations of the forecasting techniques
• Users of forecasts must be aware of the limitations

of information in advisories

Forecast Errors - characteristics
• Still substantially large although showing a slow
and steady decrease
• Increase remarkably with increasing time
• Are approximately 30 % of the cyclone movement

over the same time
• Large year-to-year variations

Official Forecast Errors for Atlantic
Forecast Interval (hr)

0 12 24 36 48 72
Track in km (1986-1995) 26 91 173 252 335 506
Intensity in kt (1990-1995) 3 7 10 13 16 19

Initial forecast errors
• Average official initial forecast errors
* 26 km for position
* 3 kt for intensity
• Range of initial forecast errors

* 10 km for good eye to more 180 km for poorly
defined centre
* as much as 30 kt for intensity

Strike probability forecasts
• One method use to objectively define uncertainty
inherent in forecasts
• Derived from knowledge of past cyclones and

forecast errors in the region of interest
• Provide valuable early guidance in estimating the

risk of tropical cyclones affecting important or
vulnerable facilities

Use of strike probability forecasts
• To extend the usable length of forecasts
• To provide a quantitative assessment of the threat
posed by a tropical cyclone
• To compare the relative threat
• To cause a consistent response
• As a tool in risk analysis

Probability ellipses - Georges 1998

Strike probability forecasts
• Uncertainty increases as the forecast interval
increases
• 72 hours probability less than that 12 hours
• Maximum probability at 72 hours is about 10%

compared to about 70% at 12 hours
• Longer lead-time actions must be based on

smaller probabilities


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Tropical Cyclones

Characteristics and Forecasting

Horace H. P. Burton and Selvin DeC. Burton

Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project

Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project

Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project

Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project

Sustained Winds Pressure

1 65 – 82 119 – 15 > 980 Low

Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project

• Average - 9 tropical storms

• Most active months - August and September

• Movement - west or west northwest

Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project

Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project

• Storm force winds may extend out as much as 500

• Maximum wind speeds between 12 and 50 km

Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project

• Current inaccuracies in forecast dictate over

• False warnings can produce an attitude of

Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project

Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project

• NHC normally issues a forecast every 6 hours for

• Official forecast is based on the guidance obtained

• Users of forecasts must be aware of the limitations

Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project

• Increase remarkably with increasing time

• Are approximately 30 % of the cyclone movement

• Large year-to-year variations

Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project

Forecast Interval (hr)

Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project

• Range of initial forecast errors

Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project

• Derived from knowledge of past cyclones and

• Provide valuable early guidance in estimating the

Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project

Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project

Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project

• 72 hours probability less than that 12 hours

• Maximum probability at 72 hours is about 10%

• Longer lead-time actions must be based on

Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project

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