Hypothesis Testing: 8-1 Review and Preview

Chapter 8
Hypothesis Testing
8-1 Review and Preview
8-2 Basics of Hypothesis Testing
8-3 Testing a Claim about a Proportion
8-4 Testing a Claim About a Mean: σ Known
8-5 Testing a Claim About a Mean: σ Not Known
8-6 Testing a Claim About a Standard Deviation or
Variance
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 1
Section 8-1
Review and Preview
Review
In Chapters 2 and 3 we used “descriptive
statistics” when we summarized data using tools
such as graphs, and statistics such as the mean
and standard deviation. Methods of inferential
statistics use sample data to make an inference or
conclusion about a population. The two main
activities of inferential statistics are using sample
data to (1) estimate a population parameter (such
as estimating a population parameter with a
confidence interval), and (2) test a hypothesis or
claim about a population parameter. In Chapter 7
we presented methods for estimating a population
parameter with a confidence interval, and in this
chapter we present the method of hypothesis
testing.
Definitions
In statistics, a hypothesis is a claim or

statement about a property of a population.
A hypothesis test (or test of significance) is a
standard procedure for testing a claim about a
property of a population.
Main Objective
The main objective of this chapter is to

develop the ability to conduct
hypothesis tests for claims made about a
population proportion p, a population
mean , or a population standard
deviation .
Examples of Hypotheses that can be Tested
• Genetics: The Genetics & IVF Institute claims that

its XSORT method allows couples to increase the
probability of having a baby girl.
• Business: A newspaper headline makes the claim

that most workers get their jobs through
networking.
• Medicine: Medical researchers claim that when

people with colds are treated with echinacea, the
treatment has no effect.
Examples of Hypotheses that can be Tested
• Aircraft Safety: The Federal Aviation

Administration claims that the mean weight of an
airline passenger (including carry-on baggage) is
greater than 185 lb, which it was 20 years ago.
• Quality Control: When new equipment is used

to manufacture aircraft altimeters, the new
altimeters are better because the variation in the
errors is reduced so that the readings are more
consistent. (In many industries, the quality of
goods and services can often be improved by
reducing variation.)
Section 8-2
Basics of Hypothesis
Testing
Key Concept
This section presents individual components
of a hypothesis test. We should know and
understand the following:
• How to identify the null hypothesis and alternative
hypothesis from a given claim, and how to express
both in symbolic form
• How to calculate the value of the test statistic, given a
claim and sample data
• How to identify the critical value(s), given a
significance level
• How to identify the P-value, given a value of the test
statistic
• How to state the conclusion about a claim in simple
and nontechnical terms
Part 1:
The Basics of Hypothesis Testing
Rare Event Rule for
Inferential Statistics
If, under a given assumption, the

probability of a particular observed event
is exceptionally small, we conclude that
the assumption is probably not correct.
Components of a
Formal Hypothesis
Test
Null Hypothesis:
H0
• The null hypothesis (denoted by H0) is
a statement that the value of a
population parameter (such as
proportion, mean, or standard
deviation) is equal to some claimed
value.
• We test the null hypothesis directly.
• Either reject H0 or fail to reject H0.
Alternative Hypothesis:
H1
• The alternative hypothesis (denoted
by H1 or Ha or HA) is the statement that
the parameter has a value that
somehow differs from the null
hypothesis.
• The symbolic form of the alternative
hypothesis must use one of these
symbols: , <, >.
Note about Forming Your
Own Claims (Hypotheses)
If you are conducting a study and want

to use a hypothesis test to support
your claim, the claim must be worded
so that it becomes the alternative
hypothesis.
Note about Identifying
H0 and H1
Figure 8-2
Example:
Consider the claim that the mean weight of

airline passengers (including carry-on
baggage) is at most 195 lb (the current value
used by the Federal Aviation Administration).
Follow the three-step procedure outlined in
Figure 8-2 to identify the null hypothesis and
the alternative hypothesis.
Example:
Step 1: Express the given claim in symbolic

form. The claim that the mean is at
most 195 lb is expressed in symbolic
form as  ≤ 195 lb.
Step 2: If  ≤ 195 lb is false, then  > 195 lb

must be true.
Example:
Step 3: Of the two symbolic expressions
 ≤ 195 lb and  > 195 lb, we see that
 > 195 lb does not contain equality,
so we let the alternative hypothesis
H1 be  > 195 lb. Also, the null
hypothesis must be a statement that
the mean equals 195 lb, so we let H0
be  = 195 lb.
Note that the original claim that the mean is at
most 195 lb is neither the alternative hypothesis
nor the null hypothesis. (However, we would be
able to address the original claim upon
completion of a hypothesis test.)
Example
Page 397-398, problems 9-16
Example
Page 397-398, problem 10
Example
Example
The majority of college students have credit

cards.
Example
Hypothesis Testing
We always test the null hypothesis.

The initial conclusion will always be
one of the following:
1. Reject the null hypothesis.
2. Fail to reject the null hypothesis.
Wording of Final Conclusion
Figure 8-7
Caution
Never conclude a hypothesis test with a

statement of “reject the null hypothesis”
or “fail to reject the null hypothesis.”
Always make sense of the conclusion
with a statement that uses simple
nontechnical wording that addresses the
original claim.
Accept Versus Fail to Reject
• Some texts use “accept the null

hypothesis.”
• We are not proving the null hypothesis.
Fail to reject is more accurate
• The available evidence is not strong
enough to warrant rejection of the null
hypothesis (such as not enough
evidence to convict a suspect).
Example
State the final conclusion in nontechnical

terms. See Figure 8-7 on page 391
Example
Example

Example

Reject or Fail To Reject?
There are various decision criteria

we will use to decide to reject or fail
to reject the null hypothesis:
Traditional method
P-value method
Confidence intervals
Test Statistic
The test statistic is a value used in making

a decision about the null hypothesis, and is
found by converting the sample statistic to
a score with the assumption that the null
hypothesis is true.
Test Statistic - Formulas
p̂  p
Test statistic for z
proportion pq
n
x x
Test statistic z or t 
for mean  s
n n
Test statistic for

 2

n  1s 2
standard deviation  2
Example
Page 398, problems 28
Example
P-Value
The P-value (or p-value or probability value)
is the probability of getting a value of the test
statistic that is at least as extreme as the one
representing the sample data, assuming that
the null hypothesis is true.
Critical region P-value = area to the left of
in the left tail: the test statistic
Critical region P-value = area to the right of
in the right tail: the test statistic
Critical region P-value = twice the area in the
in two tails: tail beyond the test statistic
Procedure for Finding P-Values
Figure 8-5
Type of Test and P-Value
(Left-tailed) H1: < P-value = P ( z  test statistic)
(Right-tailed) H1: > P-value = P ( z  test statistic)
(Two-tailed) H1: 
test statistic negative test statistic positive
P-value = 2  P( z  test statistic) P-value = 2  P( z  test statistic)
Type of Test and P-Value
The formulas on the previous slide will be given

on the final exam.
Example
Page 398, problem 30
NOTE: we will just find the P-value for now
Example
Example
Example
Example
Example
NOTE: this is a two-tailed test because the

alternative hypothesis is the “not equal” case
Example
Example
NOTE: this is a left-tailed test because the

alternative hypothesis is the “less than” case
Critical Region
The critical region (or rejection region) is the

set of all values of the test statistic that
cause us to reject the null hypothesis
Significance Level
The significance level (denoted by ) is the

probability that the test statistic will fall in the
critical region when the null hypothesis is
actually true. This is the same  introduced
in Section 7-2. Common choices for  are
0.05, 0.01, and 0.10.
Decision Criterion Comparing P-
Value and Significance Level
If P-value   , reject H0.
If P-value >  , fail to reject H0.
Decision Criterion Comparing P-
Value and Significance Level
If P-value   , reject H0
IN WORDS:
If we assume the null hypothesis is true and if the
probability of getting a value of the test statistic that
is at least as extreme as the one representing the
sample data is less than or equal to the probability
that the test statistic will fall in the critical region
when the null hypothesis is actually true, then we
reject the null hypothesis.
P-Value
Here is a memory tool useful for interpreting

the P-value:
If the P is low, the null must go.

If the P is high, the null will fly.
Example
Example
Example
Example
Example
Further examples using P-value method will

be presented in section 8-3, pages 409-411,
problems 9-30
Recap
In this section we have discussed:
 Null and alternative hypotheses.
 Test statistics.
 Significance levels.
 P-values.
 Decision criteria.
Section 8-3
Testing a Claim About a
Proportion
Basic Methods of Testing Claims
about a Population Proportion p
Notation
n = number of trials
 x
p = n (sample proportion)
p = population proportion (used in the
null hypothesis)
q=1–p
Requirements for Testing Claims
About a Population Proportion p
1) The sample observations are a simple
random sample.
2) The conditions for a binomial distribution
are satisfied.
3) The conditions np  5 and nq  5 are both
satisfied, so the binomial distribution of
sample proportions can be approximated
by a normal distribution with µ = np and
 = npq . Note: p is the assumed
proportion not the sample proportion.
Test Statistic for Testing
a Claim About a Proportion

p–p
z= pq
n
Caution
Don’t confuse a P-value with a proportion p.
P-value = probability of getting a test

statistic at least as extreme as
the one representing sample
data
p = population proportion

Obtaining P

p sometimes is given directly
“10% of the observed sports cars are red”
is expressed as

p = 0.10

p sometimes must be calculated
“96 surveyed households have cable TV
and 54 do not” is calculated using
 x 96
p =n =
(96+54)
= 0.64
(determining the sample proportion of households with cable TV)
P-Value Method
1. Formulate the null and alternative hypotheses
(remember: the null gets the equal)
2. Find the sample proportion  p
3. Calculate the test statistic z
4. Calculate the P-value using a left-tailed, right-tailed,
or two-tailed test (depends on the alternative
hypothesis H1 ) and the standard normal
distribution (Table) using the test statistic z
5. Compare the P-value with the given significance
level and choose to reject H0 or fail to reject H0
(remember: if the P is low, the null must go)
6. Write a properly worded conclusion based on your
result from step 5.
Example:
The text refers to a study in which 57 out of
104 pregnant women correctly guessed the
sex of their babies. Use these sample data to
test the claim that the success rate of such
guesses is no different from the 50% success
rate expected with random chance guesses.
Use a 0.05 significance level.
Example:
Step 1: original claim is that the success rate

is no different from 50%: p = 0.50
original claim is false when p ≠ 0.50
p ≠ 0.50 does not contain equality so

it is H1.
H0: p = 0.50 null hypothesis and original claim

H1: p ≠ 0.50 alternative hypothesis
Example:
Step 2: the sample proportion p̂ is

57
pˆ   0.55
104
Step 3: calculate z:
pˆ  p 0.55  0.50
z   0.98
pq / n (0.5)(0.5) / 104
Example:
Step 4: two-tailed test and z is positive, so P-
value is twice the area to the right of test
statistic
Table A-2: z = 0.98 has an area of 0.8365 to its

left, so area to the right is 1 – 0.8365 = 0.1635,
double this to get P-value of 0.3270
Example:
Step 5: the P-value of 0.3270 is greater than

the significance level of 0.05, so fail to
reject the null hypothesis
Step 6: Here is the correct conclusion: There is

not sufficient evidence to warrant rejection of
the claim that women who guess the sex of
their babies have a success rate equal to 50%.
Example:
Step 6 (alternative interpretation):
A 0.55 proportion of correct guesses

would happen 32.70% of the time
when a simple random sample of
guesses is taken 104 times. Since
32.70% is larger than 5%, these
results do not show that 50% is not
the true proportion.
Example
pages 409, problem 16
Example
Formulate the null and alternative hypotheses
Example
Calculate the sample proportion using the

given x and n
Example
Calculate the test statistic
Example
Calculate the P-value using the fact that the

Alternative hypothesis H1 is “greater than” case,
we use a right-tailed test
P - value  P ( z  2.83)  1  0.9977  0.0023
Example
Compare the P-value with the given significance

level of 0.01
0.0023 < 0.01
so we reject the null hypothesis H0 since the P-value

is less than our significance level
Example
Write a properly worded conclusion
Rare Event Rule for
Inferential Statistics
Previous example can be understood in terms
of the rare event rule for inferential statistics:
If, under a given assumption, the probability of a
particular observed event is exceptionally small, we
conclude that the assumption is probably not correct.
Example:
A 0.711 proportion of correct guesses would

happen 0.23% of the time when a simple
random sample of guesses is taken 45
times. Since 0.23% is smaller than 1%, this
is a rare event. Our null-hypothesis
assumption of 50% must be incorrect and
the actual proportion of correct guesses by
pregnant women with more than 12 years of
education is larger than 50%.
Example
Example
Formulate the null and alternative hypotheses
Example
The sample proportion who smoke is given as
pˆ  18.3%  0.183
Example
Calculate the test statistic
Example
Calculate the P-value using the fact that the

alternative hypothesis H1 is “less than” case,
we use a left-tailed test
Example
Compare the P-value with the given significance

level of 0.01
0.0001 < 0.01
so we reject the null hypothesis H0 since the P-value

is less than our significance level
Example
Write a properly worded conclusion

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Chapter 8

In statistics, a hypothesis is a claim or

The main objective of this chapter is to

• Genetics: The Genetics & IVF Institute claims that

• Business: A newspaper headline makes the claim

• Medicine: Medical researchers claim that when

• Aircraft Safety: The Federal Aviation

• Quality Control: When new equipment is used

The Basics of Hypothesis Testing

If, under a given assumption, the

If you are conducting a study and want

Consider the claim that the mean weight of

Step 1: Express the given claim in symbolic

Step 2: If  ≤ 195 lb is false, then  > 195 lb

Page 397-398, problems 9-16

Page 397-398, problem 10

Page 397-398, problem 10

Page 397-398, problem 12

The majority of college students have credit

Page 397-398, problem 12

We always test the null hypothesis.

1. Reject the null hypothesis.

2. Fail to reject the null hypothesis.

Never conclude a hypothesis test with a

• Some texts use “accept the null

Page 398-399, problem 38

State the final conclusion in nontechnical

Page 398-399, problem 38

Page 398-399, problem 40

State the final conclusion in nontechnical

Page 398-399, problem 40

State the final conclusion in nontechnical

There are various decision criteria

The test statistic is a value used in making

Test statistic for

Page 398, problems 28

Page 398, problems 28

(Left-tailed) H1: < P-value = P ( z  test statistic)

(Right-tailed) H1: > P-value = P ( z  test statistic)

The formulas on the previous slide will be given

Page 398, problem 30

NOTE: we will just find the P-value for now

Page 398, problem 30

Page 398, problem 32

Page 398, problem 32

Page 398, problems 34

Page 398, problems 34

NOTE: this is a two-tailed test because the

Page 398, problems 36

Page 398, problems 36

NOTE: this is a left-tailed test because the

The critical region (or rejection region) is the

The significance level (denoted by ) is the

If P-value   , reject H0.

If P-value >  , fail to reject H0.

Here is a memory tool useful for interpreting

If the P is low, the null must go.

Page 398, problems 30

Page 398, problems 30