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    PPT#9 - Frequency Analysis-Probability

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    Karl Tubera
    The document discusses frequency analysis and probability concepts used in hydrology, including: - Return periods and the probability of occurrence are used to plan projects and predict rainfall event likelihoods. - Annual precipitation data from 1934-1953 is presented to illustrate concepts like ranked values, frequency of occurrence percentages, and return periods. - Annual rainfall data from 1975-2003 for another location is shown. - Key moments like mean, variance, standard deviation, and skewness are defined to characterize distributions of hydrologic variables like rainfall and flows. - An example problem is given to calculate mean, standard deviation, and skewness from a table of annual peak flows data.

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    PPT#9 - Frequency Analysis-Probability

    Uploaded by

    Karl Tubera
    71 views9 pages
    The document discusses frequency analysis and probability concepts used in hydrology, including: - Return periods and the probability of occurrence are used to plan projects and predict rainfall event likelihoods. - Annual precipitation data from 1934-1953 is presented to illustrate concepts like ranked values, frequency of occurrence percentages, and return periods. - Annual rainfall data from 1975-2003 for another location is shown. - Key moments like mean, variance, standard deviation, and skewness are defined to characterize distributions of hydrologic variables like rainfall and flows. - An example problem is given to calculate mean, standard deviation, and skewness from a table of annual peak flows data.

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    PPT#9_FREQUENCY ANALYSIS-PROBABILITY

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    The document discusses frequency analysis and probability concepts used in hydrology, including: - Return periods and the probability of occurrence are used to plan projects and predict rainfall event likelihoods. - Annual precipitation data from 1934-1953 is presented to illustrate concepts like ranked values, frequency of occurrence percentages, and return periods. - Annual rainfall data from 1975-2003 for another location is shown. - Key moments like mean, variance, standard deviation, and skewness are defined to characterize distributions of hydrologic variables like rainfall and flows. - An example problem is given to calculate mean, standard deviation, and skewness from a table of annual peak flows data.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as ppt, pdf, or txt
    71 views9 pages

    PPT#9 - Frequency Analysis-Probability

    Uploaded by

    Karl Tubera
    The document discusses frequency analysis and probability concepts used in hydrology, including: - Return periods and the probability of occurrence are used to plan projects and predict rainfall event likelihoods. - Annual precipitation data from 1934-1953 is presented to illustrate concepts like ranked values, frequency of occurrence percentages, and return periods. - Annual rainfall data from 1975-2003 for another location is shown. - Key moments like mean, variance, standard deviation, and skewness are defined to characterize distributions of hydrologic variables like rainfall and flows. - An example problem is given to calculate mean, standard deviation, and skewness from a table of annual peak flows data.

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    Frequency Analysis and

    Probability in Hydrology
    Prediction-Frequency
    Distributions
    • To plan and design projects must be
    able to predict probability of rainfall
    events
    • Duration, Intensity, Return Period
    • Often must estimate Return Periods
    Probability of Occurrence, Fa (%)=
    100 (2m-1)
    2n
    m = the rank of each event
    n = the total number of events

    100
    Return Period=
    Fa

    Fa= probability of occurrence (%)


    Annual Precipitation
    Year Depth (in) Ranked Values Rank Fa Return Period
    1934 14.6 32.8 1 2.5 40.00
    1935 21.7 26.2 2 7.5 13.33
    1936 12.1 23.4 3 12.5 8.00
    1937 22.4 22.4 4 17.5 5.71
    1938 23.4 21.7 5 22.5 4.44
    1939 13.1 19.2 6 27.5 3.64
    1940 19.2 19.2 7 32.5 3.08
    1941 32.8 18.2 8 37.5 2.67
    1942 11.2 14.6 9 42.5 2.35
    1943 18.2 13.1 10 47.5 2.11
    1944 19.2 12.7 11 52.5 1.90
    1945 11.6 12.1 12 57.5 1.74
    1946 11.6 11.6 13 62.5 1.60
    1947 12.7 11.6 14 67.5 1.48
    1948 7.2 11.2 15 72.5 1.38
    1949 8 10.6 16 77.5 1.29
    1950 10.6 9.5 17 82.5 1.21
    1951 8.2 8.2 18 87.5 1.14
    1952 26.2 8 19 92.5 1.08
    1953 9.5 7.2 20 97.5 1.03
    Year Annual Rainfall (mm)
    1975 886.9
    1976 886.9
    1977 741.3
    1978 638.9
    1979 674.1
    1980 1053.3
    1981 892.1
    1982 705.3
    1983 1114
    1984 1061.1
    1985 721.6
    1986 563.7
    1987 978.1
    1988 926.9
    1989 1037.7
    1990 792.8
    1991 518
    1992 762.1
    1993 751.1
    1994 779.9
    1995 887.4
    1996 736.2
    1997 49.5
    1998 313
    1999 512.3
    2000 46.5
    2001 775.8
    2002 3929.9
    2003 504.5
    2004 2298.2
    Estimates of Moments from Data
    1. Mean- is the measure of the location of centroid of the distribution of
    flows.

    1 N
    X   Xi
    n i 1
    2. Variance- the expected value of the squared deviations about the mean
    and represents the scale or spread of the distribution.

    X 
    n
    2
    i X
    x 
    2 i 1
    n 1
    3. Standard Deviation- is the measure of way, in which the flows are
    distributed about the mean.

    X 
    n
    2
    i  X
    2
    x x  i 1
    n 1
    4. Skewness- the third central moment which is measure of the degree of
    symmetry the distribution.

    X 
    n
    3
    i  X
    n
    G * i 1
     n  1 n  2 x
    3
    Median- measure of central tendency which is not a moment but rather the
    value of x for which the CDF equals 0.50.

    Mode- the value of x at which the PDF or PMF is a maximum.


    Example: Determine the mean, standard deviation and skewness of the
    annual peak flows shown in the table.

    Peak Flow
    Year
    (m3/s)
    1976 353
    1977 766
    1978 408
    1979 509
    1980 276
    1981 350

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