Discrete

Probability
Distribution
GROUP 2
Topic Outline
Random Variables
Cumulative Distribution
Expected Values of Random Variables
The Binomial Distributions
The Poisson Distribution
Random Variables
B A N C AYA O N , H YA C I N T H E V E

B A U T I S TA , O D Y S S E Y A M O R
Random Variables
A random variable is a variable that assumes numerical values
associated with the random outcome of an experiment, where one
(and only one) numerical value is assigned to each sample point.
Two Types of Random Variables
 A discrete random variable can assume a countable number of
values.
 A continuous random variable can assume any value along a given
interval of a number line. The time a tourist stays at the top once s/he
gets there
Two Types of Random Variables
A random variable is discrete if it has a finite or countable number of
possible outcomes that can be listed.
x

0 2 4 6 8 10
A random variable is continuous if it has an uncountable number or
possible outcomes, represented by the intervals on a number line.
x

0 2 4 6 8 10

6
Two Types of Random Variables
Discreet Random Continuous Random
Variables Variables
 Number of sales  Length
 Number of calls  Depth
 Shares of stock  Volume
 People in line  Time
 Mistakes per page  Weight
Probability Distribution for Random Variables

It describes how the probabilities are distributed over the values of the
random variable.
Examples:
A diagram (Probability Tree)
A table
A graph
A mathematical formula
Examples
Example 1:
Random variable X is the number on the top face of a die when
it is rolled once.
X = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6.
the probability of each of these values of X is 1/6.
P(X=3) = 1/6, and so is the probability of having 4, 2, 5 or any
number on all six faces of a die.
Examples
Example 2:
Random variable Z is the number of tails after 3 flips of a fair coin.
possible values we could get:
HHH, HHT, HTT, HTH, THT, TTH, THH, TTT
P(Z=O) = 1/8 Note: The sum of all probabilities must equal to 1.
P(Z=1) = 3/8
P(Z=2) = 3/8
P(Z=3) = 1/8
Cumulative Distribution Functions
BORJA, KYLE KEVIN

B U H AY, E R O L J O S E P H
Cumulative Distribution Functions
The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of a random variable is a method
to describe the distribution of random variables. The advantage of the CDF is
that it can be defined for any kind of random variable (discrete and
continuous).

CDF are commonly used to calculate the area under the curve to the left from
a point of interest. It is used to evaluate the accumulated probability. For
continuous distribution, the probability is equal to the area under the curve.
Cumulative Distribution Functions
The cumulative distribution function (cdf) of a random variable ‘x’ is defined as the
probability that the variable takes a value less than or equal to x.

CDF: FX(x) = P[X≤x]

FX(x) = function of X
X = real value variablex
x = probability values of the variable
P = probability that X will have a value less than or equal to x.
Other names of CDF
Probability distribution function of the random variables

Distribution function of the random variables

Cumulative Probability distribution function

 Properties of CDF
1.CDF is defined as FX(x) = P[X≤x], so its value is always
between ‘0’ and ‘1’.
 0 ≤ FX(x) ≤ 1

2.This property is derived from the of limits of functions.

FX (-∞) = 0 & FX (∞) = 1

3.As the real value of the variable increases, the value of the
dependent variable also increases.
FX(x1) ≤ FX(x2) if x1 ≤ x2
 CDF for Discrete Random Variables
 If ‘X’ is a discrete random variable, then it takes on values at discrete points.

Suppose: X = {

Example 1:

A discrete random variable X whose probability distribution function is:

P(X=x) = ∈{1, 2, 3, 4, 5}

Find F(3), in other words: find P(X≤3).

Solution:
 
We use the cumulative distribution function and state:

P(X≤3) =

That’s: P(X≤3)=P(X=1)+P(X=2)+P(X=3)

Using the fact that P(X=x) = , we find:

P(X≤3) = P(X=1) + P(X=2) + P(X=3)

P(X≤3) =

Finally, we can state P(X≤3) = = 0.4.

Example
  2:

A discrete random variable X has probability distribution function defined by:

P(X=x) =

Where x={1, 2, 3, 4}.

Calculate the probability that 2<X≤4.

Solution:
 
We use the cumulative distribution function and state:

P(2<X≤4) =

That’s: P(2<X≤4) = P(X=3)+P(X=4)

Using the fact that P(X=x) =, we find:

P(2<X≤4) = P(X=3) + P(X=4)

P(X≤3) = =

Finally, we can state P(X≤3) = = 0.833.

CDF for Continuous Variable
CDF
  for continuous a variable is integrated from the Probability Density Function

The cumulative distribution function for continuous random variables is just a straightforward
extension of that of the discrete case. All we need to do is replace the summation with an
integral.

=
Example
A  continuous probability function is given by defined in the domain
[1, 4] where for all other x.

a. Find the cumulative distribution function

b. Use the CDF to find
c. Use the CDF to find
Example
 
a.
Example
 
b.
Example
 
c.

 
Equal to
Expected Values of Random Variables
BARRIOS, LEVI BRIAN
BORJA, JENECA MAE
Probability Distributions for Discrete Random Variables
 A discrete probability distribution lists each possible value the
random variable can assume, together with its probability. Thus,
a discrete probability distribution is often presented in tabular
form.

0  P (x)  1
ΣP (x) = 1

26
Probability Distributions for Discrete Random Variables

Example:
1
The spinner is divided into two sections. The
probability of landing on the 1 is 0.25. The 2

probability of landing on the 2 is 0.75. Let x be

the number the spinner lands on.
x P (x)
1 0.25
2 0.75
 Discrete Probability Distribution

Example:
The spinner below is spun two times. The probability of
landing on the 1 is 0.25. The probability of landing on the
2 is 0.75. Let x be the sum of the two spins.
1
The possible sums are 2, 3, and 4.
2
P (sum of 2) = 0.25  0.25 = 0.0625
 Discrete Probability Distribution

Example continued:
P (sum of 3) = 0.25  0.75 = 0.1875
1

2 “or”

P (sum of 3) = 0.75  0.25 = 0.1875

Sum of
P (x)
spins, x
2 0.0625
3 0.375
4
0.1875 + 0.1875
 Discrete Probability Distribution

Example continued:

1 P (sum of 4) = 0.75  0.75 = 0.5625

Sum of
P (x)
spins, x
2 0.0625 Each probability is between 0 and 1,
3 0.375
4 and the sum of the probabilities is 1.
0.5625
 Discrete Probability Distribution
Example:
Graph:

Sum of P(x)
P (x) Sum of Two Spins
spins, x 0.6
2 0.0625
0.5
3 0.375
4 0.5625 0.4

Probability
0.3

0.2

0.1
0 x
2 3 4
Sum
Expected Values of Discrete Random
Variables
 The variance of a discrete random variable is given by:

The formula means that we take each value of x, subtract the expected value, square that value
and multiply that value by its probability. Then sum all of those values.

There is an easier form of this formula we can use.

The formula means that first, we sum the square of each value times its probability then subtract
the square of the mean. We will use this form of the formula in all of our examples.
Expected Values of Discrete Probability Distribution
The mean of a discrete random variable is given by
μ = ΣxP(x).
Example:
Find the mean of the probability distribution for the sum of the two
spins.
x P (x) xP (x)
2 0.0625 2(0.0625) = 0.125 ΣxP(x) = 3.5
3 0.375 3(0.375) = 1.125 The mean for the two
4 0.5625 4(0.5625) = 2.25 spins is 3.5.
Expected Values of Discrete Probability Distribution
The variance of a discrete random variable x is

2 = Σ(x – μ)2P (x).

Example:

Find the variance of the probability distribution for the sum of the two spins. The mean is 3.5.

x–μ (x – μ)2 P (x)(x – μ)2 ΣP(x)(x – 2)2

x P (x)
 0.376
2 0.0625 –1.5 2.25  0.141
3 0.375 –0.5 0.25 The variance for the
 0.094
two spins is
4 0.5625 0.5 0.25  0.141 approximately 0.376
Expected Values of Discrete Probability Distribution

The standard deviation of a discrete random variable is

given by

Example:
Find the standard deviation of the probability distribution for the
sum of the two spins. The variance is 0.376.
x P (x) x–μ (x – μ)2 P (x)(x – μ)2
2 0.0625 –1.5 2.25 0.141
3 0.375 –0.5 0.25 0.094 Most of the sums differ
from the mean by no
4 0.5625 0.5 0.25 0.141
more than 0.6 points.
Expected Values of Discrete
Random Variables

The expected value of a discrete random variable

is equal to the mean of the random variable.

Expected Value = E(x) = μ = ΣxP(x).

Example:
At a raffle, 500 tickets are sold for $1 each for two prizes of $100 and
$50. What is the expected value of your gain?
Your gain for the $100 prize is $100 – $1 = $99.

Your gain for the $50 prize is $50 – $1 = $49.

Gain, x E(x) = ΣxP(x).

P (x)

$99

$49

–$1 Because the expected value is negative, you

can expect to lose $0.70 for each ticket you
buy.
Example
𝑋 =𝑛𝑜 . 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑘𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑘
 

0.15 0.8 0.75 0.4

x P(x) 𝜇 =¿
E(x)  = 𝑥
0(0.1) + 1(0.15) + 2(0.4) + 3(0.25) + 4(0.1)

0 0.1 = 2.1

1 0.15
2 0.4 𝑛𝑜 . 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑘𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑠 𝑖𝑛𝑎 𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑘
 

3 0.25
4 0.1

38
Example
Suppose 60% of Filipino adults approve of the way the president is handling the job.
◦ Randomly sample 2 Filipino adults.
◦ Let x represent the number that approve

No. of the adults that approve

0 1 2

39
 X 0 1 2

P(x) 0.16 0.48 0.36

E(x)  = all x

= 0(0.16) + 1(0.48) + 2(0.36)

µ
= 1.2

Variance
  2 2
𝐸 [ ( 𝑥−𝜇 ) ] =∑ ( 𝑥− 𝜇 ) 𝑝(𝑥)
 = · 0.16  + · 0.48  + · 0.36
= 0.48
 = 0.48 or

40
Binomial Distribution
C A N D I A , N O R M E LY N

CAÑO, REESE
Binomial Distribution
A binomial distribution can be thought of as simply the probability of a
SUCCESS or FAILURE outcome in an experiment or survey that is repeated
multiple times.

For example, a coin toss has only two possible outcomes: heads or tails and
taking a test could have two possible outcomes: pass or fail.
Binomial Distribution
• The first variable in the binomial formula, n, stands for the number
of times the experiment runs.
• The second variable, p, represents the probability of one specific
outcome.
Binomial Distribution
Binomial distributions must also meet the following three criteria:

1. The number of observations or trials is fixed. In other words,

you can only figure out the probability of something happening if
you do it a certain number of times. This is common sense—if
you toss a coin once, your probability of getting a tails is 50%. If
you toss a coin a 20 times, your probability of getting a tails is
very, very close to 100%.
2. Each observation or trial is independent. In other words, none
of your trials have an effect on the probability of the next trial.
Binomial Distribution
1. The probability of success (tails, heads, fail or pass) is exactly
the same from one trial to another.

*Once you know that your distribution is binomial, you can apply
the binomial distribution formula to calculate the probability.
The binomial distribution formula is:
 

Where:
x = total number of “successes” (pass or fail, heads or tails etc.)
n = number of trials
p = probability of a success on an individual trial
q = probability of a failure on an individual trial

Note that: So:

 
Example 1:

A six sided die is rolled 12 times. What is the probability of getting

a 4 five times?

Given:
n = 12 p = 1/6
x=5 q = 5/6

Solution:

12 12! 12● 11 ●10 ●9 ●8 ●7! 1 ●9 ●8

( ) =5 (12 – 5)! 5!
= =
(7)! 5 ●4 ●3 ●2 ●1
= 792 1

P(5) = 792(⅙)⁵(⅚)
12-5
= 792(⅙)⁵(⅚)⁷
= 0.028425(100%)
= 2.84%
Poisson Distribution
A B O R D O , H A RV E Y K I E T H
Poisson Distribution
Poisson probability distribution is used in situations where events
occur randomly and independently a number of times on average
during an interval of time or space.

The random variable X associated with a Poisson process is discrete

and therefore the Poisson distribution is discrete.
Poisson Process Examples
My computer crashes on average once every 4 months.
Hospital emergencies receive on average 5 very serious cases
every 24 hours.
The number of cars passing through a point, on a small road, is
on average 4 cars every 30 minutes.
Poisson Process Examples
I receive on average 10 e-mails every 2 hours.
Customers make on average 10 calls every hour to the customer help
center
Poisson Distribution Conditions
1. Events are discrete, random and independent of each other.
2. The average number of times of occurrence of the event is constant
over the same period of time.
3. Probabilities of occurrence of event over fixed intervals of time are
equal.
4. Two events cannot occur at the same time; they are mutually
exclusive.
Comparison Between Binomial and
Poisson Distributions
1. A binomial distribution has two parameters: the number of trials n
and the probability of success p at each trial while a Poisson
distribution has one parameter which is the average number of
times λ that the event occur over a fixed period of time.
2. In the binomial distribution x is an integer taking values over the
interval [0, n] , while in the Poisson distribution x is an integer
taking values over the interval [0, ∞).
Poisson Formula

 
λ = average/ mean
= is an integer taking values over the interval [0,∞)
Examples and Solutions
1. My computer crashes on average once every 4 months;

a) What is the probability that it will not crash in a period of 4 months?

b) What is the probability that it will crash once in a period of 4 months?
c) What is the probability that it will crash twice in a period of 4 months?
Examples and Solutions

a.

b.

c.
Examples and Solutions
Examples and Solutions
2. A customer help center receives on average 3.5 calls every hour.

a) What is the probability that it will receive at most 4 calls every

hour?
b) What is the probability that it will receive at least 5 calls every
hour?
 Examples and Solutions

a.
 Examples and Solutions

b.
Examples and Solutions
3. A person receives on average 3 e-mails per hour.

a) What is the probability that he will receive 5 e-mails over a period

two hours?
b) What is the probability that he will receive more than 2 e-mails
over a period two hours?
 Examples and Solutions

a.
 Examples and Solutions

b.
Examples and Solutions
PMF Plot per 1 hour PMF Plot per 2 hours