Introducción a la

planificación y previsión
de la demanda
Introduction to
Demand Planning
& Forecasting

Adaptado de: https://courses.edx.org/courses/course-v1:MITx+CTL.SC1x+3T2018/courseware/eb6a807af0324d9caaaab908133f3e7c/70b1e7abe6cb427fbbea8d16db89ca85/1?activate_block_id=block-v1%3AMITx%2BCTL.SC1x%2B3T2018%2Btype%40vertical%2Bblock%400c0ee123c33c4ccd990ef0425add6dd8

 Example: Forecasting Bagels
• Solution: 90

1. Graph it. Forecast Actual

80
2. Extend data table:
 Error: et=At-Ft 70

 Abs[error] = |et|
60

Daily Bagel
 Sqr[error] = e2

Demand
 AbsPct[error] = | 50

et/At|
40
3. SumFandAfindemeans
|et| e2 |et/At|
t t t
30
Monday 50 43 -7 7 49 16.3% Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday

Tuesday 50 42 -8 8 64 19.0%
Wednesday 50 66 16 16 256 24.2%
MAD = 54/5 = 10.8
Thursday 50 38 -12 12 144 31.6%
RMSE = sqrt(126.8) =
Friday 75 86 11 11 121 12.8% 11.3 MAPE = 104%/5 =
Sum 0 54 634 104% 21%
Mean 0 10.8 126.8 21%
Adaptado de: https://courses.edx.org/courses/course-v1:MITx+CTL.SC1x+3T2018/courseware/eb6a807af0324d9caaaab908133f3e7c/70b1e7abe6cb427fbbea8d16db89ca85/1?activate_block_id=block-v1%3AMITx%2BCTL.SC1x%2B3T2018%2Btype%40vertical%2Bblock%400c0ee123c33c4ccd990ef0425add6dd8
 Example:
Ejemplo: Forecasting Bagels
Bagels de pronóstico
• • Solution:
Solución: 90

1. Graph it.
1. Grafíquelo.
Forecast Actual
80
2. Extend
2. Ampliar datade
la tabla table:
datos:
et Error:
 Error: = At-Ftet=At-Ft 70
 Abs [error] = | et | = |e |
 Abs[error] t
 Sqr [error] = e2 60

Daily Bagel
 Sqr[error] = e2

Demand
 AbsPct [error] = | et / At |
3. Sumar AbsPct[error]
y encontrar =|
medias 50

et/At|
40
3. SumFandAfindemeans
|et| e2 |et/At|
t t t
30
Monday 50 43 -7 7 49 16.3% Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Lunes
Tuesday
Martes 50 42 -8 8 64 19.0%
Wednesday
Miércoles 50 66 16 16 256 24.2%
Jueves MAD = 54/5 = 10.8
Thursday 50 38 -12 12 144 31.6%
viernes RMSE = sqrt(126.8) =
Friday 75 86 11 11 121 12.8% 11.3 MAPE = 104%/5 =
Sum 0 54 634 104% 21%
Mean 0 10.8 126.8 21%
Adaptado de: https://courses.edx.org/courses/course-v1:MITx+CTL.SC1x+3T2018/courseware/eb6a807af0324d9caaaab908133f3e7c/70b1e7abe6cb427fbbea8d16db89ca85/1?activate_block_id=block-v1%3AMITx%2BCTL.SC1x%2B3T2018%2Btype%40vertical%2Bblock%400c0ee123c33c4ccd990ef0425add6dd8
 Puntos clave de la lección

Key Points from Lesson

Adaptado de: https://courses.edx.org/courses/course-v1:MITx+CTL.SC1x+3T2018/courseware/eb6a807af0324d9caaaab908133f3e7c/70b1e7abe6cb427fbbea8d16db89ca85/1?activate_block_id=block-v1%3AMITx%2BCTL.SC1x%2B3T2018%2Btype%40vertical%2Bblock%400c0ee123c33c4ccd990ef0425add6dd8

 Key Points

• Forecasting is a means not an end

• Forecasting Truisms
 Forecasts are always wrong
 Aggregated forecasts are more accurate

 Shorter horizon forecasts are more

accurate
• Subjective & Objective Approaches
 Judgmental & experimental
 Causal & time series

• Forecasting metrics
 Capture both bias & accuracy
 MAD, RMSE, MAPE
Adaptado de: https://courses.edx.org/courses/course-v1:MITx+CTL.SC1x+3T2018/courseware/eb6a807af0324d9caaaab908133f3e7c/70b1e7abe6cb427fbbea8d16db89ca85/1?activate_block_id=block-v1%3AMITx%2BCTL.SC1x%2B3T2018%2Btype%40vertical%2Bblock%400c0ee123c33c4ccd990ef0425add6dd8
 Key Points
Puntos clave
• Forecasting is a means not an end
• La previsión es un medio, no un fin
•• Forecasting Truisms
Truismos de pronóstico
 Forecasts
 Las previsionesare alwaysson
siempre wrong
incorrectas
 Aggregated
 Los pronósticos forecasts
agregados are
son more accurate
más precisos
 Los pronósticos de horizonte más corto son más
 Shorter horizon forecasts are more
precisos
accurate
• Enfoques subjetivos y objetivos
•Subjective & Objective Approaches
Juicioso y experimental
 Judgmental
 Causal & tiempo
y series de experimental
• Métricas
 Causalde&pronóstico
time series
•Forecasting
Capture tanto el sesgo como la precisión
metrics
 MAD, RMSE, MAPE
 Capture both bias & accuracy

 MAD, RMSE, MAPE

Adaptado de: https://courses.edx.org/courses/course-v1:MITx+CTL.SC1x+3T2018/courseware/eb6a807af0324d9caaaab908133f3e7c/70b1e7abe6cb427fbbea8d16db89ca85/1?activate_block_id=block-v1%3AMITx%2BCTL.SC1x%2B3T2018%2Btype%40vertical%2Bblock%400c0ee123c33c4ccd990ef0425add6dd8