Measuring Fertility: Two Types of Measures

Measuring Fertility
 Two types of measures

 Period measures
 Cohort measures
 Cohort - a group who experiences a
demographic event at the same time
 Birth cohort; marriage cohort; graduating class; etc.
 Period - a combination of cohorts in a given
year or other period.
 A snapshot of all cohorts at one point in time.
Fertility
 The principle Period measures are:
 The Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
 The General Fertility Rate GFR)
 The Child Woman Ratio (CWR)
 Coale’s Index of Fertility (Coale’s Index If)
 The Age-Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR)
Fertility
 The Cohort Measures
 The Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
 The Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR)
 The Net Reproduction Rate NRR)
Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
Births in a given year
CBR   1000
Population at midyear
 Doesn’t take into account

 age structure
 gender balance
 marriage rates
 Uses vital statistics (births) and census data
(population)
Crude Birth Rates
Crude Birth Rates

8.03 - 14.85 N
14.85 - 22.41
22.41 - 28.95 W E
28.95 - 39.29
39.29 - 50.68
World30.shp S
CBR: United States
30
25
20
15
10
0
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
General Fertility Rate (GFR)
Births in a year
GFR  1000
Women age 15 - 44
 “The” fertility rate.
 15-44 considered the children bearing years.
 Tends to be about 4.5 times CBR.
 Requires vital statistics and census data.
 An improvement over CBR, but more detailed data
required.
Child Women Ratio (CWR)
Population age 0 - 4
CWR   1000
Women age 15 - 49
 Extends age range in denominator to account for the fact that
some kids are now 4 (possibly born when mother was 45).
 Range: About 200 to over 1000.
 Approx. 4.5 times GFR.
 1990: 279 in the US, 489 in Mexico.
 Advantage: Census data only.
Measuring Fertility
Births in a year to women age x to x  5
ASFR  1000
Women age x to x  5
 Compute for each age group, x to x+5.

 So we have a set or “schedule” of age specific
rates.
 Requires age and sex information but “controls”
for the age-sex structure of a population.
US ASFR
300
250
200
1960
150
2002
100
50
0
0 2 4 6 8
ASFR 2003: US and Ethiopia
300
250
200 Ethiopia
150
United States
100
50
0
15- 20- 25- 30- 35- 40- 45-
19 24 29 34 39 44 49
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
5   ASFRx , x 5
 ASFRx, x  5
TFR  x TFR  x
1000
1000
 Multiplied by 5 only if 5-year age intervals.
 2 for 2-year intervals , and so on.
 Occasionally expressed per 1000.
 Most often applied as period measure to create a
“synthetic cohort.”
Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR)
Female Births
GRR  TFR 
All Births
 Number of female children a women may
expect to have in her lifetime if her fertility
follows current fertility rates and she
survives through childbearing years.
Low TFR Countries
Country or area TFR GRR Ratio GRR/TFR

Bulgaria 1.133 0.550 0.4854
Czech Republic 1.182 0.574 0.4859
Latvia 1.202 0.587 0.4878
Singapore 1.240 0.597 0.4813
Hungary 1.250 0.603 0.4827
Slovakia 1.250 0.609 0.4870
High TFR Countries
Country TFR GRR Ratio GRR/TFR

Mali 6.656 3.279 0.4926
Congo (Kinshasa) 6.692 3.297 0.4926
Uganda 6.720 3.310 0.4926
Yemen 6.822 3.328 0.4878
Niger 6.914 3.406 0.4926
Somalia 6.977 3.437 0.4926
Net Reproduction Rate (NRR)
 Like the GRR, but takes into account the
mortality rates of women.
 Slightly smaller than GRR.
 Value of 1 indicates that the population will
eventually quit growing or shrinking.
 Less than 1, population will shrink.
 Greater than 1, it will grow.
The Coale (Princeton) Fertility Index (If)
B
If 
 wi fi
i
 Births are compared to fertility of the Hutterite population

 B is the number of births in a given year
 wi is the number of women in the population at age i
 fi is the age specific fertility rate of Hutterite woment at age i
 Need births in a given year and age distribution of women
Cohort Measures of Fertility
 Children Ever Born
 How many children born alive by the end of a
cohort’s childbearing years?
 Average for cohort often reported.
 Retrospective surveys often used to elicit this—
expensive and can’t get the data until the
childbearing years are over.
 Fertility Intention Surveys

Measuring Fertility: Two Types of Measures

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Measuring Fertility

 Two types of measures

 Doesn’t take into account

Crude Birth Rates

 Compute for each age group, x to x+5.

Country or area TFR GRR Ratio GRR/TFR

Country TFR GRR Ratio GRR/TFR

 Births are compared to fertility of the Hutterite population

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