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    Lecture 13 Flood Frequency Analysis

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    teo leo
    This document discusses methods for analyzing flood frequency from historical flood data. It describes compiling annual and partial duration flood series from past records. Common methods to determine the return period or recurrence interval of flood magnitudes are the California, Allen Hazen, Weibull, and Gumbel methods. An example numerical problem is given to illustrate applying these methods to find return periods and frequencies for a set of flood data from multiple years.

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    Lecture 13 Flood Frequency Analysis

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    teo leo
    36 views9 pages
    This document discusses methods for analyzing flood frequency from historical flood data. It describes compiling annual and partial duration flood series from past records. Common methods to determine the return period or recurrence interval of flood magnitudes are the California, Allen Hazen, Weibull, and Gumbel methods. An example numerical problem is given to illustrate applying these methods to find return periods and frequencies for a set of flood data from multiple years.

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    This document discusses methods for analyzing flood frequency from historical flood data. It describes compiling annual and partial duration flood series from past records. Common methods to determine the return period or recurrence interval of flood magnitudes are the California, Allen Hazen, Weibull, and Gumbel methods. An example numerical problem is given to illustrate applying these methods to find return periods and frequencies for a set of flood data from multiple years.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    36 views9 pages

    Lecture 13 Flood Frequency Analysis

    Uploaded by

    teo leo
    This document discusses methods for analyzing flood frequency from historical flood data. It describes compiling annual and partial duration flood series from past records. Common methods to determine the return period or recurrence interval of flood magnitudes are the California, Allen Hazen, Weibull, and Gumbel methods. An example numerical problem is given to illustrate applying these methods to find return periods and frequencies for a set of flood data from multiple years.

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    Global Flood risk under climate change, 2013

    FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS


    LECTURE 13
    FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS
    It is a statistical probabilistic method
    Flood magnitudes are determined corresponding to different return periods
    Past flood data is used
    Accuracy of this method depends on the length of past data record
    Recommended length of data record required for this method is 30 years
    If it is less than 10 years flood frequency analysis should not be carried out on this data
    INTRODUCTION
    “The frequency is the number of time that a given magnitude flood may occur
    in a given period.”

    Knowledge of the magnitude and probable frequency of recurrence of flood is necessary for
    1. Economical and safe design of bridges, dams, levees, culverts and other structures
    2. Effective management of flood plains, flood defense schemes
    3. To predict possible flood magnitude over a certain time period
    4. To estimate the frequency with which floods of a certain magnitude may occur
    METHODS OF COMPILING FLOOD
    DATA
    There are two methods of treating data for studying frequency analysis
    1. annual flood series
    2. partial duration analysis
    ANNUAL FLOOD SERIES
    An annual flood is defined as the highest momentary peak discharge in a water year.
    The use of only one flood in each year is the most frequent objection to the use of annual
    floods.
    Infrequently, the second highest flood in a given year, which is omitted in the above definition,
    may outrank many annual floods.

    1990 1991 1992 1993 time


    PARTIAL DURATION FLOOD
    SERIES
    The objection noted under annual floods is resolved by listing all floods that are greater than a
    selected base without regard to number within any given time period.
    The base is generally selected as equal to the lowest annual flood so that at least one flood in
    each year is included, however, in a long record, the base is generally raised so that on the
    average only 3 or 4 floods a year are included.
    But sometimes there may be no flood in a year and may be three or four peaks occur in the
    same year if base flood selected is not the minimum

    Q QSel

    1990 1991 1992 1993 time


    RETURN PERIOD/RECURRING
    INTERVAL (T)
    “ return period is the average number of years during which a flood of a given
    magnitude will be equaled or exceeded once.” or
    “it is time interval after which a similar flood can be expected.”

    where P is probability of occurence


    METHODS TO DETERMINE THE RETURN
    PERIOD
    Empirical methods are most commonly used
    1. California method
    2. Allen Hazen method N: Number of events
    3. Weibull method m: order no. when floods are sorted in descending order
    m=1 for highest flood in record
    4. Gumbel’s method m=N for lowest flood in record
    c=
    NUMERICAL PROBLEM
    For the data record find out the return periods using
    1. California Method 2. Allen Hazen Method
    3. Weibull Method 4. Gumbel Method
    Also compute the frequency.
    Year Flood (m3/s) Year Flood (m3/s)
    1981 4800 1987 3600
    1982 4400 1988 3700
    1983 4600 1989 2410
    1984 5000 1990 2500
    1985 4600 1991 3500
    1986 3800 1992 3500

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