October 25th, 2017
There are not many films on this week’s list of home market releases, but there are several bigger titles making their home market debut. Some, like Cars 3, are only coming out on Video on Demand, but there are also some serious Pick of the Week contenders hitting DVD / Blu-ray as well. Of these contenders, War for the Planet of the Apes has the best combination of reviews and extras on the Blu-ray Combo Pack.
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October 18th, 2017
It is one of those weeks. There’s a massive release coming out, which has scared away nearly all of the competition, so it is a really shallow week. Fortunately, that huge release is Spider-Man: Homecoming, which is not only one of the biggest hits of the year, it is also one of the reviewed. It isn’t the only contender for Pick of the Week, but the Blu-ray Combo Pack wins that honor.
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September 14th, 2017
Spider-Man: Homecoming returned to the international top five earning first place with $71.82 million on 21,675 screens in 47 markets for totals of $495.74 million internationally and $823.43 million worldwide. The film debuted in first place in China with $69.12 million on 20,440 screens over the weekend for a four-day opening of $70.63 million. This is already the biggest single market for the film, overtaking South Korea, where it has earned $51.51 million. At this point, the film will have no trouble getting to $900 million worldwide, but $1 billion is out of reach.
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September 11th, 2017
Historically, the weekend after the Labor Day long weekend is one of the worst weekends of the year. That is not the case this year. In fact, this year, this weekend was historic in a much more positive sense of the word. It broke tons of records, some of which were more esoteric. It demolished the records for biggest September weekend box office, biggest horror weekend, Biggest R-rated day, biggest opening weekend for a Stephen King, etc. All of this led to the weekend box office more than doubling last weekend’s total earning $163 million. This is also 62% higher than the same weekend last year. A change this severe usually only happens when there is a misalignment in holidays. I’ve been saying that a lot over the past few weeks; however, this has been due to a massive decline, so it is nice to be unabashedly positive for once. Year-to-date, 2017 is still well behind 2016 at $7.63 billion to $8.08 billion. 2017 did close the gap and it is now 5.6% or $450 million behind last year’s pace. If the movie industry can close the gap by this much each week, then it will take till Halloween before it has caught up in terms of dollars and would take until nearly Christmas to catch up in terms of ticket sales.
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September 7th, 2017
The weekend after the Labor Day long weekend is usually one of the worst weekends of the year. However, that’s not the case this year. In fact, this could be the best weekend in about two months. It is widely expected to dominate the box office. In fact, there are some who think it will earn much more than the rest of the box office combined. That would be great news for the overall box office numbers. On the other hand, Home Again is only expected to earn around $10 million; however, it reportedly only cost $15 million to make, so that’s not a bad opening. This weekend last year, the biggest new release was Sully with just over $35 million, while When the Bough Breaks did okay in a counter-programming role pulling in $14 million. Overall, the box office earned $101 million and if It lives up to the hype, it will help 2017 win in the year-over-year competition by a significant degree.
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September 7th, 2017
Dunkirk returned to the international top five for the first time in nearly a month with $36.5 million in 60 markets for totals of $280.0 million international and $459.0 million worldwide. Nearly all of this came from its first place opening in China, where it pulled in $29.80 million over the weekend for a four-day opening of $30.27 million. The film also opened in Italy, but had to settle for second place with $3.6 million on 606 screens. Dunkirk wraps up its international run in Japan this weekend and will finish with north of $500 million worldwide. Unless it cost an obscene amount to advertise, this will be enough to ensure profitability by its initial push into the home market.
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September 6th, 2017
The last weekend of the summer had no new wide releases, so it made sense that the box office would drop even further. However, that was not the case. I think the combination of the last long weekend of the summer and terrible recent box office results led a lot of people to go to the movies one last time before school starts. After all, it is likely most moviegoers haven’t seen a movie in theaters for several weeks. The Hitman’s Bodyguard easily led the way with $10.54 million over three days and $13.27 million including Monday. It earned more over three days than any of its competitors earned over four. Overall, the box office rose 9.8% from last weekend to $76 million. Sadly, this is still 24% lower than the same weekend last year, but it could have been worse. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $7.45 billion, which puts it 6.3% or $500 million behind last year’s pace.
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September 2nd, 2017
Expectations for this weekend were really low. They were so low that when I saw The Hitman’s Bodyguard had earned $2.43 million on Friday, I was pleasantly surprised. That’s only 20% lower than last Friday and the holiday should boost its three-day legs, helping it earn just over $9 million. It’s on pace for $12 million over four days for a running tally of over $55 million. That’s enough for Lionsgate’s share to cover its entire $30 million production budget.
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August 31st, 2017
Not only will this weekend likely be the worst weekend of the year, there’s a very high likelihood it will be the worst weekend in over a decade. It arguably could be the worst weekend of all time. There are no wide releases, or even semi-wide releases. The widest “new” release of the week is the 40th Anniversary re-release for Close Encounters of the Third Kind, but last week’s 3D re-release for Terminator 2: Judgment Day suggests it won't come close to the top ten. Tulip Fever is a long-delayed Weinstein Co. release and just avoiding the Mendoza Line would be a reason to celebrate. Up next in terms of theater counts is Hazlo Como Hombre. It is a Chilean film and films aimed at Hispanics have had success in recent years. They only need to earn just over $2 million during the three-day weekend to reach the top ten, so one of them could get there, but that’s not a sure thing. This leaves The Hitman’s Bodyguard with an easy path to first place. This weekend last year, the biggest new release was The Light Between Oceans, which earned just under $5 million. Sadly, this might be more than all three new releases earn this year. Last year the overall box office finished just under $100 million.
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August 31st, 2017
Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets earned first place on the international chart with $32.78 million in 32 countries for totals of $124.12 million internationally and $163.81 million worldwide. The film earned first place in China with $28.88 million over the weekend for a total of $29.24 million. The film has yet to open in South Korea and Italy so it will likely top its production budget worldwide; that’s nowhere near enough to break even, but if it can get to $200 million worldwide, then it can at least safe face.
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August 29th, 2017
Amazingly, the weekend box office was actually worse than expected, as every new release we talked about in our predictions missed the Mendoza Line*. This left The Hitman’s Bodyguard with an easy first place with $10.26 million during its second weekend of release, just avoiding the bottom ten worst number one films of the 21st century. It could break the record next weekend, as there are no new wide releases looking to take top spot. Overall, the box office plummeted 28% to just $69 million. This is in the bottom ten smallest domestic weekends of the 21st century, 13th worst including the year 2000. (Interestingly, the year 2000 produced 5 of the worst 7 weekends in that time frame and September 2000 alone has 4 of the 5 worst weekends.) Again, since there are no new wide releases next weekend, we could see this record fall. The $69 million weekend total is 41% lower than the same weekend last year, which is a decline you normally only see when there is a misalignment in holidays. Unfortunately, we’ve seen a similar decline several times in recent weeks. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $7.32 billion, which is $490 million or 6.2% less than 2016’s pace. We really need 2017 to put up some wins soon, or we simply won’t be able to turn around the deficit before the end of the year.
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August 27th, 2017
Things are so bad at the box office this weekend that it’s hard to figure out just how bad. We’ve been tracking box office since 1997, and have researched weekend reports back to the beginning of the 1980s, and a diligent search of our database doesn’t offer a weekend that’s clearly been worse than this one. Based on current ticket sales, it’s the 9th-worst in terms of consumer spending since 2000, with $66.6 million reported so far. That number will go up a bit when numbers are announced for all movies on Monday, but most likely only fractionally (I think we have numbers for everything that made over $500,000). But that figure doesn’t account for ticket price inflation. If we do so, things look even more dire…
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August 26th, 2017
As expected, The Hitman’s Bodyguard earned first place on opening Friday, and better than average for the summer. It will likely finish with just under $10 million instead of just over $10 million. This isn’t a major issue for the film, but if it does earn first place with less than $10 million, it will be only the tenth film to do so in the 21st century. Being on this list isn’t necessarily a bad sign for the film and instead is a bad sign for the overall market. For example, Guardians of the Galaxy earned first place during its sixth weekend of release, with just $10.4 million, not because it was struggling, but because the competition was terrible. In this case, The Hitman’s Bodyguard is on pace to become a midlevel hit, while the new releases are all bombs. In fact, the film is on pace to earn enough domestically for Lionsgate’s share to cover its entire production budget and this is reason to celebrate.
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August 24th, 2017
This will likely be the worst weekend of the year at the box office, at least so far. There’s only one wide release, Leap!, while there are two other films opening “nationwide” that both have a real shot at the top ten, All Saints and Birth of the Dragon. All three films combined might not earn more than $10 million over the weekend. By comparison, this weekend last year, Don’t Breathe opened with $26.41 million. 2017 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison yet again and we can hardly afford to fall further back.
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August 24th, 2017
Annabelle: Creation climbed into first place internationally last weekend, with $42.0 million on 13,209 screens in 56 markets for totals of $96.7 million overseas, and $160.9 million worldwide. The film’s biggest new market was Mexico, where it earned a first-place $8 million on 3,086 screens, while it also earned first place in Brazil with $4.4 million on 1,263 screens. However, its most impressive market was India, where it earned first place with $4.4 million on 1,159 screens. It is very rare for non-Indian films to top the chart in India.
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August 22nd, 2017
The summer is over, but The Hitman’s Bodyguard did well for this time of year earning $21.38 million over the weekend. Logan Lucky was well back opening with just $7.60 million. Overall, the box office fell 18% from last week to just $96 million. This is also 27% lower than the same weekend last year. The top two films this year actually did better than the top two films earned last year, but the depth was just terrible. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $7.21 billion, putting it $430 million or 5.6% lower than last year’s pace.
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August 20th, 2017
We’re at that point in the year when we’ll take what we can get at the box office, and The Hitman’s Bodyguard will deliver according to that lowered metric this weekend with about $21.6 million, according to Lionsgate’s Sunday morning projection. That’s in line with to a little ahead of expectations, but a B+ CinemaScore and mediocre reviews suggest it won’t have substantial legs. For Ryan Reynolds, the opening is ahead of this year’s Life, which debuted with $12.5 million, and well clear of 2015’s Self/Less ($5.4 million). Samuel L. Jackson, meanwhile, appears in such a mess of movies it’s hard to say how this compares to any one of them.
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August 19th, 2017
The Hitman’s Bodyguard is giving the late summer box office a bit of a boost, earning $8.0 million on Friday. This is far from a monster opening, but assuming it has average legs, it will become a midlevel hit by the end. This assumption seems safe, as its reviews are only 40% positive, while it earned a B plus from CinemaScore, both of which suggest below average legs; however, the next two weeks are particularly bad when it comes to new releases, so the lack of competition should help out. The film has a better than 50/50 shot at over $20 million over the weekend, but even if it just misses that mark, it is still great for this time of year and Lionsgate should be happy with this result.
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August 17th, 2017
There are a couple of new releases coming out in wide release: The Hitman’s Bodyguard and Logan Lucky. The two films have vastly different Tomatometer Scores, but similar box office potentials. Unfortunately, neither is expected to become a hit and there’s a chance whichever of them earns first place will do so with the lowest box office result of the year so far, currently held by Split’s third weekend of release. If the yearly low record isn’t broken this weekend, it will almost certainly be broken next weekend. This weekend last year, Suicide Squad earned first place with just over $20 million. This is more than any one film will make this weekend. Additionally, there were six films that earned $10 million or more last year, while there are only three that have a shot at that milestone this week. 2017 is going to lose to 2016 yet again.
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August 17th, 2017
Wolf Warriors 2 remained the top draw on the international market pulling in $86 million in six markets for totals of $685.52 million internationally and $687.45 million worldwide. Almost all of this has been earned in its native China, where it added $85.10 million over the weekend to its running tally, which now sits at $683.80 million. It is currently the biggest ever film in China, both in terms of local currency and American dollars, topping the previous record-holder, The Mermaid. It will have no trouble getting to $800 million worldwide and if it can find audiences outside China, it might get to $900 million or even $1 billion. There’s very little competition for the next few weeks, so that could be the boost the film needs to get to that milestone. It is a long shot, but something to keep an eye on.
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August 17th, 2017
The winners of our Go Nuts contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Annabelle: Creation’s opening weekend were...
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August 15th, 2017
Annabelle: Creation’s opening saved summer for one week, but that’s the practically the only good news we have to talk about this weekend. The film pulled in $35.01 million, which is over three times its nearest competition. That’s the bad news. The depth this past weekend was terrible, as there were only two films with more than $10 million, compared to five films last weekend. The overall box office fell 4.6% to just $117 million. Worse still, this is 32% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 is behind 2016 by $360 million or 4.9% at $7.07 billion to $7.43 billion. The year has lost over $500 million compared to last year’s pace during summer alone. This is a disaster.
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August 13th, 2017
After a series of lackluster weekends at the box office, Annabelle: Creation is doing its bit to clear away the end-of-Summertime blues with a $35 million opening this weekend. That’s right in line with the $37 million Annabelle opened with three years ago, which is an impressive performance for a horror franchise. It’s also the best opening for a horror movie since Split’s $40 million start back in January. The first film in the franchise fell away quite rapidly, and ended up with $84 million in total, so a final total of over $100 million is far from assured, but with a production budget of only $15 million, and probably not much more than $20 million in marketing, this should be a highly profitable movie for Warner Bros., especially since the franchise is popular globally.
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August 12th, 2017
Annabelle: Creation dominated the box office on Friday with $15 million. This is likely more than any other film will earn over the full weekend. As for its box office chances going forward, the film has earned 68% positive reviews and grabbed a B from CinemaScore. Horror films tend to struggle when it comes to CinemaScore, so a B isn’t a bad result and the film’s legs should be no worse than average for a horror movie as a result. Look for about $37 million over the weekend, which could be enough to get to $100 million domestically. It depends on how strong the competition is for the next few weeks.
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August 11th, 2017
Annabelle: Creation needed a $3 million during its previews to have a chance at saving the summer, and even then it would need better than average legs for the genre to hit $30 million during its opening weekend. Fortunately, it earned $4 million in previews. This is more than twice as much as Don’t Breathe and Lights Out earned this time last year; however, those two films were not sequels and sequels tend to have shorter legs. Annabelle’s reviews are 68% positive at the moment, which is good enough for this time of year. At this point, opening with more than $30 million is a safe bet, while $35 million to $40 million isn’t out of the question.
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August 10th, 2017
Unless Annabelle: Creation is a $30 million hit, it is safe to say summer ended a couple of weeks ago. The film has about a 50/50 chance of getting there. The Nut Job: Nutty by Nature is widely expected set a record this week, but not a good one. Finally there’s The Glass Castle, which is only opening semi-wide. Overall, the box office looks weak compared to this weekend last year. Sausage Party opened with $34.26 million, which is more than any film this year will make. Worse still, Suicide Squad won the weekend with $43.54 million. 2017 is going to lose to 2016 in the year-over-year comparison by at least $43.54 million.
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August 10th, 2017
The winners of our Dark Days contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Dark Tower’s opening weekend were...
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August 4th, 2017
There are two wide releases next weekend. (As expected, The Glass Castle is opening semi-wide.) Even if Annabelle: Creation and The Nut Job: Nutty by Nature had the same overall box office potential, Annabelle: Creation would win the weekend, as horror films are historically more front-loaded than family films are. Because of this, it is the best choice for the the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. We are using “Go Nuts” as the name of the Contest, because it is funnier. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for Annabelle: Creation.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprise consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release).
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay!
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August 1st, 2017
July is over and we should all be happy about that. Granted, there were some positive results we can talk about. Spider-Man: Homecoming is a huge hit and Despicable Me 3 will pull in a sizable profit before it reaches the home market. There were also a couple of other $100 million hits and a midlevel hit or two; however, overall, 2017 wasn’t able to compete with 2016 and the box office finally lost its lead over last year. 2017 started the summer about $200 million ahead of 2016, but will finish July about $100 million behind last year’s pace. August doesn’t look any better. There are a couple of films that have a reasonable shot at $100 million, The Dark Tower and Annabelle: Creation, as well as a few that should be solid midlevel hits. However, last year we had Sausage Party and Don’t Breathe, both of which nearly hit $100 million, then we had midlevel hits like Pete’s Dragon, Kubo and the Two Strings, and War Dogs. I don’t know if 2017 will be able to compete with that. ... Now some of you are thinking I forgot about Suicide Squad. Trust me, I will never forget that movie. I ignored it to make a point. Even without Suicide Squad, I don’t think 2017 will make up the deficit it has with 2016. With Suicide Squad, it is going to be a disaster. I want to be optimistic, but there’s no evidence to suggest I should be.
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July 3rd, 2017
Supernatural horror movie opens August 11 ... Full Movie Details.
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