November 20th, 2017
It is a slow week on the home market for two reasons. Technically it is one reason, but it is having two effects. It’s Thanksgiving weekend, which means the schedule is really busy and I need to keep this list short in order to save time. Also, while Thanksgiving means Black Friday and Cyber Monday, two of the busiest shopping days of the year, you don’t want to release something new into that storm of chaos. The biggest release of the week, not counting VOD releases is The Hitman’s Bodyguard, which I reviewed. As for the best release on this week’s list, I’m torn between Good Time, NEW GAME: The Complete First Season, and The Villainess. It was down to a roll of the dice, but The Villainess on Blu-ray Combo Pack is the Pick of the Week.
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November 19th, 2017
The Hitman’s Bodyguard held onto first place for three weeks in a row, and earned just over $75 million domestically on a $30 million budget. Granted, it opened in the middle of the worst box office slump we’ve seen in years, so there was no competition to deal with. Is that the only reason the film did well at the box office? Or is it worth checking out?
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November 8th, 2017
It is not a particularly strong week on the home market. Cars 3 is the biggest new release, but it is far from the best. There were not a lot of contenders for Pick of the Week. The Philadelphia Story and Your Name were the two best with the latter coming out on top and its Blu-ray Combo Pack is the Pick of the Week.
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September 28th, 2017
Kingsman: The Golden Circle made its international debut and it was mostly really good news, as it topped the chart with $61.18 million on 11,623 screens in 64 markets. Its biggest market was the U.K., where it earned $11.40 million on 602 screens. This is a massive improvement over the $6.4 million its predecessor opened with. Likewise, this film earned $6.01 million on 1300 screens in Russia, up from $3.5 million for the first film. It wasn’t able to grow that much in Australia, but it did increase its haul to $4.56 million on 405 screens, up from $3.22 million on 372 for the original film. The film has yet to open in France, South Korea, China, and Japan, so this is a great start. It very likely won’t have the same legs, but even so, $400 million worldwide is a solid milestone to aim for, given this start.
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September 19th, 2017
It beat expectations again, earning $60.10 million over the weekend, which would have been an amazing opening weekend for a film that cost $35 million to make. American Assassin did okay, given its budget, while mother! struggled. Overall, the box office fell from last weekend, which is not surprising, given It’s monster opening last weekend. A decline of 32% is stark, but a weekend haul of $111 million is still great for this time of year. Compared to this weekend last year, 2017 won by a 24%, which is fantastic. Year-to-date, 2017 is still way behind by $410 million or 5.0% at $7.79 billion to $8.20 billion. However, 2017 has cut into 2016’s lead by $90 million in just two weeks, so you can’t complain about that.
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September 16th, 2017
As expected, It dominated Friday with $19.2 million. Its running tally is $177.91 million after just 8 days of release, putting it in top spot on the all-time September chart. It looks to be on pace for $57 million over the full weekend, which is even better than expected, giving it a running tally of over $210 million. A 55% decline is excellent in this day and age, especially for a horror film, as the genre tends to have shorter legs. This will make it the 8th film released in 2017 to get to $200 million. It will also become only the fourth horror film to get to $200 million and just the 16th R-Rated film to reach that milestone. Furthermore, while next week’s competition is stronger, it is currently on pace to reach $300 million domestically, which is more than most people originally predicted it would earn worldwide. Perhaps this means we will be getting a big-budget At the Mountains of Madness adaptation after all. Previously, no studios wanted to make a big-budget R-rated horror movie, but this film proves they can be profitable.
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September 15th, 2017
There are two wide releases debuting this week: American Assassin and mother! Neither is expected to match It at the box office. In fact, both combined won’t match It’s sophomore stint. Neither will earn as much in total as It does over just this weekend. This weekend last year, Sully led the way with $21.65 million, while the three new releases earned about $26 million combined. It should earn more than those four films earned combined, giving 2017 its second massive win in a row.
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September 11th, 2017
Historically, the weekend after the Labor Day long weekend is one of the worst weekends of the year. That is not the case this year. In fact, this year, this weekend was historic in a much more positive sense of the word. It broke tons of records, some of which were more esoteric. It demolished the records for biggest September weekend box office, biggest horror weekend, Biggest R-rated day, biggest opening weekend for a Stephen King, etc. All of this led to the weekend box office more than doubling last weekend’s total earning $163 million. This is also 62% higher than the same weekend last year. A change this severe usually only happens when there is a misalignment in holidays. I’ve been saying that a lot over the past few weeks; however, this has been due to a massive decline, so it is nice to be unabashedly positive for once. Year-to-date, 2017 is still well behind 2016 at $7.63 billion to $8.08 billion. 2017 did close the gap and it is now 5.6% or $450 million behind last year’s pace. If the movie industry can close the gap by this much each week, then it will take till Halloween before it has caught up in terms of dollars and would take until nearly Christmas to catch up in terms of ticket sales.
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September 7th, 2017
The weekend after the Labor Day long weekend is usually one of the worst weekends of the year. However, that’s not the case this year. In fact, this could be the best weekend in about two months. It is widely expected to dominate the box office. In fact, there are some who think it will earn much more than the rest of the box office combined. That would be great news for the overall box office numbers. On the other hand, Home Again is only expected to earn around $10 million; however, it reportedly only cost $15 million to make, so that’s not a bad opening. This weekend last year, the biggest new release was Sully with just over $35 million, while When the Bough Breaks did okay in a counter-programming role pulling in $14 million. Overall, the box office earned $101 million and if It lives up to the hype, it will help 2017 win in the year-over-year competition by a significant degree.
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September 7th, 2017
Dunkirk returned to the international top five for the first time in nearly a month with $36.5 million in 60 markets for totals of $280.0 million international and $459.0 million worldwide. Nearly all of this came from its first place opening in China, where it pulled in $29.80 million over the weekend for a four-day opening of $30.27 million. The film also opened in Italy, but had to settle for second place with $3.6 million on 606 screens. Dunkirk wraps up its international run in Japan this weekend and will finish with north of $500 million worldwide. Unless it cost an obscene amount to advertise, this will be enough to ensure profitability by its initial push into the home market.
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September 6th, 2017
The last weekend of the summer had no new wide releases, so it made sense that the box office would drop even further. However, that was not the case. I think the combination of the last long weekend of the summer and terrible recent box office results led a lot of people to go to the movies one last time before school starts. After all, it is likely most moviegoers haven’t seen a movie in theaters for several weeks. The Hitman’s Bodyguard easily led the way with $10.54 million over three days and $13.27 million including Monday. It earned more over three days than any of its competitors earned over four. Overall, the box office rose 9.8% from last weekend to $76 million. Sadly, this is still 24% lower than the same weekend last year, but it could have been worse. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $7.45 billion, which puts it 6.3% or $500 million behind last year’s pace.
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September 3rd, 2017
This weekend is somewhat uncharted territory for the movie industry, with no new releases rolling out in over 1,000 theaters and no dominant film already playing. Fortunately, the result is looking like a glass that is at least half full. Thanks in part to the holiday weekend, and the start of recovery from Hurricane Harvey, several returning films improved their box office from last weekend, and the number one film, The Hitman’s Bodyguard, will remain flat from its last outing, with $10.25 million expected by Lionsgate, and a total around $55 million by the end of the day on Sunday.
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September 2nd, 2017
Expectations for this weekend were really low. They were so low that when I saw The Hitman’s Bodyguard had earned $2.43 million on Friday, I was pleasantly surprised. That’s only 20% lower than last Friday and the holiday should boost its three-day legs, helping it earn just over $9 million. It’s on pace for $12 million over four days for a running tally of over $55 million. That’s enough for Lionsgate’s share to cover its entire $30 million production budget.
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August 31st, 2017
Not only will this weekend likely be the worst weekend of the year, there’s a very high likelihood it will be the worst weekend in over a decade. It arguably could be the worst weekend of all time. There are no wide releases, or even semi-wide releases. The widest “new” release of the week is the 40th Anniversary re-release for Close Encounters of the Third Kind, but last week’s 3D re-release for Terminator 2: Judgment Day suggests it won't come close to the top ten. Tulip Fever is a long-delayed Weinstein Co. release and just avoiding the Mendoza Line would be a reason to celebrate. Up next in terms of theater counts is Hazlo Como Hombre. It is a Chilean film and films aimed at Hispanics have had success in recent years. They only need to earn just over $2 million during the three-day weekend to reach the top ten, so one of them could get there, but that’s not a sure thing. This leaves The Hitman’s Bodyguard with an easy path to first place. This weekend last year, the biggest new release was The Light Between Oceans, which earned just under $5 million. Sadly, this might be more than all three new releases earn this year. Last year the overall box office finished just under $100 million.
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August 29th, 2017
Amazingly, the weekend box office was actually worse than expected, as every new release we talked about in our predictions missed the Mendoza Line*. This left The Hitman’s Bodyguard with an easy first place with $10.26 million during its second weekend of release, just avoiding the bottom ten worst number one films of the 21st century. It could break the record next weekend, as there are no new wide releases looking to take top spot. Overall, the box office plummeted 28% to just $69 million. This is in the bottom ten smallest domestic weekends of the 21st century, 13th worst including the year 2000. (Interestingly, the year 2000 produced 5 of the worst 7 weekends in that time frame and September 2000 alone has 4 of the 5 worst weekends.) Again, since there are no new wide releases next weekend, we could see this record fall. The $69 million weekend total is 41% lower than the same weekend last year, which is a decline you normally only see when there is a misalignment in holidays. Unfortunately, we’ve seen a similar decline several times in recent weeks. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $7.32 billion, which is $490 million or 6.2% less than 2016’s pace. We really need 2017 to put up some wins soon, or we simply won’t be able to turn around the deficit before the end of the year.
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August 27th, 2017
Things are so bad at the box office this weekend that it’s hard to figure out just how bad. We’ve been tracking box office since 1997, and have researched weekend reports back to the beginning of the 1980s, and a diligent search of our database doesn’t offer a weekend that’s clearly been worse than this one. Based on current ticket sales, it’s the 9th-worst in terms of consumer spending since 2000, with $66.6 million reported so far. That number will go up a bit when numbers are announced for all movies on Monday, but most likely only fractionally (I think we have numbers for everything that made over $500,000). But that figure doesn’t account for ticket price inflation. If we do so, things look even more dire…
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August 26th, 2017
As expected, The Hitman’s Bodyguard earned first place on opening Friday, and better than average for the summer. It will likely finish with just under $10 million instead of just over $10 million. This isn’t a major issue for the film, but if it does earn first place with less than $10 million, it will be only the tenth film to do so in the 21st century. Being on this list isn’t necessarily a bad sign for the film and instead is a bad sign for the overall market. For example, Guardians of the Galaxy earned first place during its sixth weekend of release, with just $10.4 million, not because it was struggling, but because the competition was terrible. In this case, The Hitman’s Bodyguard is on pace to become a midlevel hit, while the new releases are all bombs. In fact, the film is on pace to earn enough domestically for Lionsgate’s share to cover its entire production budget and this is reason to celebrate.
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August 24th, 2017
This will likely be the worst weekend of the year at the box office, at least so far. There’s only one wide release, Leap!, while there are two other films opening “nationwide” that both have a real shot at the top ten, All Saints and Birth of the Dragon. All three films combined might not earn more than $10 million over the weekend. By comparison, this weekend last year, Don’t Breathe opened with $26.41 million. 2017 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison yet again and we can hardly afford to fall further back.
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August 23rd, 2017
The winners of our Lucky Hit contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Hitman’s Bodyguard’s opening weekend were...
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August 22nd, 2017
The summer is over, but The Hitman’s Bodyguard did well for this time of year earning $21.38 million over the weekend. Logan Lucky was well back opening with just $7.60 million. Overall, the box office fell 18% from last week to just $96 million. This is also 27% lower than the same weekend last year. The top two films this year actually did better than the top two films earned last year, but the depth was just terrible. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $7.21 billion, putting it $430 million or 5.6% lower than last year’s pace.
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August 20th, 2017
We’re at that point in the year when we’ll take what we can get at the box office, and The Hitman’s Bodyguard will deliver according to that lowered metric this weekend with about $21.6 million, according to Lionsgate’s Sunday morning projection. That’s in line with to a little ahead of expectations, but a B+ CinemaScore and mediocre reviews suggest it won’t have substantial legs. For Ryan Reynolds, the opening is ahead of this year’s Life, which debuted with $12.5 million, and well clear of 2015’s Self/Less ($5.4 million). Samuel L. Jackson, meanwhile, appears in such a mess of movies it’s hard to say how this compares to any one of them.
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August 19th, 2017
The Hitman’s Bodyguard is giving the late summer box office a bit of a boost, earning $8.0 million on Friday. This is far from a monster opening, but assuming it has average legs, it will become a midlevel hit by the end. This assumption seems safe, as its reviews are only 40% positive, while it earned a B plus from CinemaScore, both of which suggest below average legs; however, the next two weeks are particularly bad when it comes to new releases, so the lack of competition should help out. The film has a better than 50/50 shot at over $20 million over the weekend, but even if it just misses that mark, it is still great for this time of year and Lionsgate should be happy with this result.
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August 18th, 2017
The Hitman’s Bodyguard opened with $1.65 million during previews, which is on the high end of expectations. This is good for this time of year, but its reviews suggests its legs will be on the low end of average, so a $16 million opening is the new target. Anything above that will be bode well for its chances for the next couple of weekends when there is little to no competition. The film reportedly cost $30 million to make, so it will need about $55 million domestically for Lionsgate’s share to top that. That’s probably out of reach. On the other hand, it will only need close to $100 million worldwide to break even eventually. This opening night suggests it will get there.
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August 17th, 2017
There are a couple of new releases coming out in wide release: The Hitman’s Bodyguard and Logan Lucky. The two films have vastly different Tomatometer Scores, but similar box office potentials. Unfortunately, neither is expected to become a hit and there’s a chance whichever of them earns first place will do so with the lowest box office result of the year so far, currently held by Split’s third weekend of release. If the yearly low record isn’t broken this weekend, it will almost certainly be broken next weekend. This weekend last year, Suicide Squad earned first place with just over $20 million. This is more than any one film will make this weekend. Additionally, there were six films that earned $10 million or more last year, while there are only three that have a shot at that milestone this week. 2017 is going to lose to 2016 yet again.
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August 17th, 2017
The winners of our Go Nuts contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Annabelle: Creation’s opening weekend were...
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August 11th, 2017
There are two wide releases next weekend and it is a bit of a coin toss to determine which one will open in first place. At the moment, Logan Lucky’s early reviews are 100% positive. However, the director, Steven Soderbergh is trying a new release strategy and I don’t know how well that will work. On the other hand, The Hitman’s Bodyguard only has one review and it is 6 out of 10. I suspect a lot of its reviews will be in that range. That said, it is a more traditional release and has louder buzz due to a more aggressive ad campaign. It came down to a coin toss and The Hitman’s Bodyguard won, so it is the the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for The Hitman’s Bodyguard.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Ash vs. Evil Dead: Season Two on Blu-ray
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Ash vs. Evil Dead: Season Two on Blu-ray
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, consisting of a randomly selected previously reviewed TV on DVD release.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay!
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August 1st, 2017
July is over and we should all be happy about that. Granted, there were some positive results we can talk about. Spider-Man: Homecoming is a huge hit and Despicable Me 3 will pull in a sizable profit before it reaches the home market. There were also a couple of other $100 million hits and a midlevel hit or two; however, overall, 2017 wasn’t able to compete with 2016 and the box office finally lost its lead over last year. 2017 started the summer about $200 million ahead of 2016, but will finish July about $100 million behind last year’s pace. August doesn’t look any better. There are a couple of films that have a reasonable shot at $100 million, The Dark Tower and Annabelle: Creation, as well as a few that should be solid midlevel hits. However, last year we had Sausage Party and Don’t Breathe, both of which nearly hit $100 million, then we had midlevel hits like Pete’s Dragon, Kubo and the Two Strings, and War Dogs. I don’t know if 2017 will be able to compete with that. ... Now some of you are thinking I forgot about Suicide Squad. Trust me, I will never forget that movie. I ignored it to make a point. Even without Suicide Squad, I don’t think 2017 will make up the deficit it has with 2016. With Suicide Squad, it is going to be a disaster. I want to be optimistic, but there’s no evidence to suggest I should be.
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