March 4th, 2018
It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. We will announce the winners and have our reactions as they happen, while keeping track of how our readers did in predicting the outcomes.
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March 4th, 2018
It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. Nominees in Italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between. For example, I will be happy no matter who wins Best Supporting Actress. One last note: The contest is still going and the leading for Best Picture Switched from The Shape of Water to Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri to tied over the time I was writing this story. This is the closest I’ve ever seen it. Guessing the best picture correctly will go a long way to winning.
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January 23rd, 2018
The Oscar nominations were announced starting at just after 5 am Pacific time. They do this every year and no one has been able to adequately explain why to me. At least there were some interesting results this year. The Shape of Water led the way with 13 nominations, which is one below the current record and nearly as many as the next two films combined. Overall, there were seventeen films that earned two or more nominations.
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January 11th, 2018
The BAFTA nominations were announced and this time The Shape of Water led the way with 12 nominations. The same films appear on many of the lists of nominees, but so far no one film has come to dominate the list. This makes it interesting, to say the least. There’s a good chance no one film will win the majority of prestige awards and that multiple films will have lots of reason to celebrate on February 18th when the awards are handed out.
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November 23rd, 2017
It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases, and normally franchise box sets as well, but this year none jump out as essential additions to the Holiday Gift guide. Worse still, 2017 has been awful at the box office with potential blockbuster after potential blockbuster getting savaged by critics and struggling at the box office. Additionally, some of the biggest and some of the best have been on the home market for nearly half a year, meaning nearly everyone who would want them, already own them. That doesn’t mean there are no films worth adding to this list, but the list is a little shorter than usual. On a side note, two of the films on this year’s list are from the MCU and it would have been three, but Thor: Ragnarok is still in theaters. If you know someone who loves the MCU, but has all of the movies, then check out this site, which has some more unique gift ideas. I specifically like the Spider-man Drone.
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June 6th, 2017
Summer is usually the slowest time of the year on the home market; however, this week we have the biggest theatrical hit of the year so far coming out. Unfortunately, Beauty and the Beast isn’t really Pick of the Week material. It’s not bad and the DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack hav enough extras to be worth picking up, but that’s not enough to put it over the top. Unfortunately, the film was such a massive hit at the box office that it scared away all of the competition and there’s no real Pick of the Week films on this week’s list.
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June 6th, 2017
There have been three previous adaptations in Disney’s recent streak of live-action adaptations. I’ve previously reviewed all of them and only really liked Maleficent. In fact, I like Maleficent more now than I did when it first came out, because it took the characters and made an original story with them, while the other two only had minor changes, but were mostly beat-for-beat remakes. I mention all of this before even mentioning Beauty and the Beast, because this is what I want in these movies. I want a reason to watch this version rather than the original. Does this film give me a reason?
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June 2nd, 2017
Wonder Woman had the third best previews for 2017 so far at $11 million. Only Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 ($17.0 million) and Beauty and the Beast ($16.4 million) have topped it, while it is double what Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales earned just last weekend. This represents the biggest previews for a movie directed by a woman, surpassing Fifty Shades of Grey and I'm very happy this film took away a record from Fifty Shades. So what does this tell us about the film’s box office chances? Sadly, not much. It is right were most people were expecting, so I don’t feel the need to adjust our prediction, but there are a lot of unknown factors that could affect the weekend number. Firstly, the film’s reviews are 93% positive and the word-of-mouth should be just as strong. However, the Fangirl Effect could frontload the film’s box office numbers, thus hurting its legs. There have not been enough female led superhero movies to come out to make a judgment at this time. At the moment, $100 million seems safe, but that could change this time tomorrow when the Friday estimates come in and that number could drop to $90 million or rise to $120 million. Hopefully it is the latter.
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June 1st, 2017
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales dominated the international box office earning five times more than the rest of the top five combined. The film pulled in $208.4 million in 54 markets and had $271.4 million worldwide by the end of its first weekend. Its biggest single market was China, where it earned $68.55 million over the weekend. This is bigger than its domestic opening. While this is impressive, it is only the third biggest opening in China for a Disney film, behind Avengers: Age of Ultron and Captain America: Civil War. On the other hand, the film had a big opening in Russia with $19.10 million, which is the biggest opening weekend in that market of all time. However, it wasn’t all good news, as the only market left to open in is Japan, so it will have to rely on long legs to continue its run.
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May 28th, 2017
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales is dominating proceedings at the box office this weekend, with Disney projecting an opening of $62.2 million for three days, and $76.6 million over the complete Memorial Day holiday weekend. As I’ve said a few times this year, any other studio would kill for numbers like those, but this marks the third straight decline in the franchise’s fortunes. Dead Man’s Chest had the best opening for any Pirates film, with $135.6 million in 2006; At World’s End did $114.7 million over Memorial Day weekend in 2007; and then On Stranger Tides delivered a $90.2-million debut, also over Memorial Day weekend in 2011. With this kind of start, Dead Men will struggle to deliver $200 million domestically, although its international performance will help make up the numbers.
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May 25th, 2017
Dangal became the first Indian film to have its biggest single market not be India. It earned first place in China with $34.22 million over the weekend for totals of $113.55 million in China, $185.6 million internationally, and $198.0 million worldwide. It will shortly become the second Indian film to earn more than $200 million worldwide.
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May 16th, 2017
As expected, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 crushed the competition this weekend earning more than Snatched and King Arthur: Legend of the Sword’s combined openings. However, it held on better than expected down 55% to $65.26 million. The overall box office still fell by 30% from last weekend to $136 million. This is 3.8% higher than the same weekend last year. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 held on better than Captain America: Civil War did during its sophomore stint, but it was strong depth that helped 2017 win the year-over-year comparison. It didn’t win by much, so the overall lead still shrunk to 3.4% at $4.07 billion to $3.93 billion, but any lead is good news.
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May 11th, 2017
There are two wide releases coming out this week, King Arthur: Legend of the Sword and Snatched. However, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 will likely destroy them at the box office. The real question is whether or not the top three films this year will out-earn the three films from this weekend last year. At the beginning of the month, I thought that would happen, but now I’m not so sure. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 missed expectations last weekend and King Arthur: Legend of the Sword and Snatched haven’t seen their buzz grow like most new releases do. I don’t think 2017 will get crushed like it did last weekend, but I also don’t think it will end its mini-losing streak either.
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May 11th, 2017
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 remained in first place on the international chart with $123.8 million in 55 markets for totals of $282.6 million internationally and $429.1 million worldwide. The film is already ahead of the worldwide totals of a couple of MCU alumni, The Incredible Hulk and Captain America: The First Avenger. The film opened in first place in a trio of major markets this past weekend: China, South Korea, and Russia. Its biggest opening came in China, no surprise there, where it earned $48.56 million over the weekend for a total opening of $49.47 million, including limited previews. It earned $12.79 million in 1,370 screens over the weekend in Russia. The film earned $6.92 million on 1,218 screens in South Korea over the weekend for a total opening of $13.20 million. In each of these markets, Vol 2 showed strong growth compared to the original Guardians of the Galaxy. In fact, Vol 2 earned more during its opening weekend than the original earned in total ($11.0 million). At this pace, the film will have no trouble matching the original worldwide and its legs will determine if it can reach $1 billion.
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May 10th, 2017
Not only did Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 earn first place on the weekend box office chart, it was also the top film on the theater average chart earning an average of $33,704. This is the fourth best result of the year so far, second best for a wide release. (Beauty and the Beast is still the best of the year with an average of $41,508.) Second place went to the re-release of Stalker with $20,540 in its lone theater. The Lovers was the only other film in the $10,000 club with an average of $16,572 in four theaters.
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May 8th, 2017
For the eighth year in a row, a Marvel movie started the summer blockbuster season. This time around, it was Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2, which earned $146.51 million, or roughly 75% of the total weekend box office of $194 million. That figure is nearly double the box office from last week, an increase of 97%, to be more precise. Unfortunately, this is also 19% lower than the same weekend last year when Captain America: Civil War dominated the chart. 2017 is still ahead of 2016, but the gap has narrowed to 4.5% at $3.88 billion to $3.71 billion.
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May 7th, 2017
It’s the first weekend in May, and that means it’s time for another installment from the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Two years ago Avengers: Age of Ultron blasted out the gates with $191 million. Last year, Captain America: Civil War debuted with $179 million. And now, this weekend, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 will launch with a shade over $145 million, according to Disney’s Sunday morning estimate. The steady decline in opening numbers for those three films raises a few questions about the long-term future of the franchise, but there is no universe in which $145 million isn’t a great performance.
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May 6th, 2017
As expected, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 dominated the box office chart on Friday. However, it didn’t do quite as well as we predicted with $56.26 million. It would have needed north of $60 million to get to $156 million over the weekend. Its reviews are fantastic, the best in the top ten by quite a margin, while it earned an A from CinemaScore, so it should have solid legs over the weekend. On the other hand, it is a sequel and those tend to be more front-loaded, so look for $138 million over the weekend. It is still very early, but the film appears to be on pace for $350 million domestically and close to $900 million worldwide. This is clearly a monster hit, even if it is not quite as large as anticipated. To put it in perspective, it is the sixth best May opening of all time, so there's plenty of reasons to celebrate this debut. On a side note, four of the five films ahead of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 on that list are from the MCU. The lone exception is Spider-Man 3. Marvel owns May.
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May 5th, 2017
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 started its box office run with $17 million in previews on Thursday night. This is the best previews so far this year, just topping the $16.3 million Beauty and the Beast earned previously. Unfortunately, this is well below the $25 million Captain America: Civil War managed this time last year. Its reviews are 82% positive, which will be the best in the top ten this weekend and that should help its legs. We predicted an opening weekend of $156 million and I’m relatively happy with figure after this result. That might end up a little to optimistic, but close enough to call it a victory.
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May 4th, 2017
The summer blockbuster season unofficially begins this weekend with the release of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2. There are no other films opening wide this week, so it will dominate the chart like few films are able to. In fact, the film’s only real competition is Captain America: Civil War, which opened this weekend last year. There’s very little chance Vol 2 will start as fast as Civil War started, but it could have better legs. I think 2017 will lose the year-over-year comparison this weekend, but the rest of the month should be better.
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May 3rd, 2017
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 started its international run in first place with $101.2 million in 37 markets. The film’s biggest single market was the U.K., where it dominated the market with a 67% market share and $16.94 million in 632 theaters. This is 86% above the opening the original opened with in that market and the second best opening in that market this year. It also cracked $10 million in Australia earning $6.44 million on 705 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $11.72 million. This is more than half of the total weekend box office and an improvement of 27% from the original film; however, the Wednesday opening reduced its weekend haul. Other major markets include Germany ($8.3 million); Mexico ($8.13 million); France ($7.9 million); and Brazil ($6.9 million). Given this start, the film should be able to reach $500 million internationally, maybe even $600 million, depending on its legs. That would give it a realistic shot at $1 billion worldwide.
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May 1st, 2017
The weekend box office was a wild one with two limited releases in the top five, How to be a Latin Lover and Baahubali 2: The Conclusion. The Fate of the Furious remained in first place with $19.94 million, which is better than expected. Unfortunately, the overall box office was still weak down 8.3% from last weekend to just $99 million. Worse still, this is 8.9% lower than the same weekend last year. 2017’s lead over 2016 took a bit of a hit, but still has a 5.1% or $180 million lead, $3.66 billion to $3.48 billion.
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April 30th, 2017
The last weekend before the Summer season is generally a quiet one, but two breakout hits aimed at niche audiences are making this one interesting. How to Be a Latin Lover will post a shade over $12 million from just 1,118 theaters, according to Lionsgate’s weekend estimate. That would be the news of the weekend if it wasn’t for Baahubali 2: The Conclusion earning the best weekend for a Bollywood movie in history with a stellar $10.1 million from just 425 locations. Those two films couldn’t knock The Fate of the Furious off top spot though, as the action blockbuster added another $19.4 million, to take its domestic total to $192.7 million.
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April 27th, 2017
The last weekend in April is usually a terrible weekend and this year is no different. There is only one truly wide release this week, The Circle, although How to be a Latin Lover has a shot at the top five. There are also two films opening in approximately 500 theaters hoping to sneak into the top ten: Sleight and Baahubali 2: The Conclusion. However, while it seems like a busy week for new releases, The Fate of the Furious will easily remain in first place. In fact, the top five this week could be nearly identical to the top five last week, with The Circle being the only nearly guaranteed new addition. This weekend last year, The Jungle Book led the way with $44 million, while the biggest new release was Keanu with just under $10 million. The new releases might be stronger this time around, but there’s almost no way 2017 will be able to compete with The Jungle Book.
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April 26th, 2017
The Fate of the Furious is living fast, but plummeting just as fast down 64% to $158.1 million on 19,757 screens in 65 territories for totals of $745.03 million internationally and $908.34 million worldwide. The film is now the biggest hit of 2017 on the international chart and is behind only Beauty and the Beast on the 2017 worldwide chart. The film’s biggest opening of the past weekend came in Poland where it earned $2.7 million on 187 screens, which is the best opening for the Fast and the Furious franchise in that market. Its biggest market overall continues to be China, where it added $55.28 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $321.65 million. The is the second biggest box office for a Hollywood release in China, behind only Furious 7, which earned $390.87 million there.
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April 25th, 2017
As expected, The Fate of the Furious dominated the weekend box office chart. It held up a little better than expected with $38.41 million over the weekend; however, this was still over 60% lower than its opening weekend and the overall weekend fell over $60 million or 36% from last weekend for a total of $107 million. A lot of the blame can be pushed onto the new releases, as none of them earned a spot in the top five. Born in China was the best of the new releases earning sixth place with $4.79 million. Year-over-year, 2017 was 16% lower than 2016, but fortunately, 2017 still has an impressive $200 million lead over 2016 at $3.53 billion to $3.33 billion.
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April 23rd, 2017
A decline of 61% compared to its opening weekend still leaves The Fate of the Furious the big winner at the box office this weekend, with the five new wide releases combined making less than half the $38.7 million it will earn on its second weekend, according to Universal’s weekend estimate. The film’s domestic gross will end the weekend at about $163.6 million. As of last night, it has reached $636.3 million internationally, and it should end the weekend with $752.4 million overseas, for a global total of $916 million as of Sunday. $327.4 million of that will have come from China, where Fate is clocking up another $67 million this weekend.
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April 22nd, 2017
The Fate of the Furious dominated the box office chart on Friday with $11.2 million. This could be more than any other film will earn during the entire weekend. That’s the good news. The bad news is this still represents a decline of just over 75% from its opening Friday. This is not good by any stretch of the word, but it is also not unexpected. The film will rebound on Saturday, and earn about $35.5 million over the weekend, according to Universal, which is close to our prediction and will lift the film’s running tally to $160 million. This keeps The Fate of the Furious on pace for $200 million and the film should become the third film released in 2017 to get to that milestone. It might overtake Logan on the yearly chart, but Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 will probably get there first.
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April 20th, 2017
Late April is one of the traditional dumping grounds and this week is truly living down to that reputation. There are five new releases that have at least a shot at the top ten, but none of them have a shot at becoming midlevel hits. Unforgettable is the widest new release of the week and will likely be the biggest hit, but it very likely won’t be the best. Free Fire and Born in China are in a close battle for the best reviews for the week. Meanwhile, The Promise and Phoenix Forgotten are just hoping to avoid opening below the Mendoza Line. I think earning a theater average above $2,000 is overly optimistic for either film. There’s a lot of competition, but nearly all of it is terrible, so The Fate of the Furious will have no trouble repeating in first place. Furthermore, both The Boss Baby and Beauty and the Beast will likely remain in the top five, meaning there’s not a lot of room for the other films. This weekend last year, The Jungle Book earned just over $60 million over the weekend, while The Huntsman: Winter’s War opened with close to $20 million. There’s no way 2017 will be able to match this one-two punch.
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April 19th, 2017
The Fate of the Furious dominated in the international chart with $433.2 million in 63 markets. This is the biggest international weekend of all time, beating the previous record holder, Jurassic World, by over $100 million. Interestingly, both of these films were released by Universal. Furthermore, the film has already topped the international totals of all but the two more recent installments in the Fast and the Furious franchise. On the downside, the international opening weekend record isn’t the most prestigious record, because it depends a lot of how wide a release a film has. For instance, The Fate of the Furious opened in all but four markets this past weekend and of the remaining markets, only Japan is a significant market. The film has the number one overall international weekend, but only broke weekend records in 20 of the 63 individual markets and only one of those markets could be considered a major market. That one market was China.
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April 18th, 2017
As expected, The Fate of the Furious dominated the box office this weekend, earning nearly a 60% share of the total box office. It did miss predictions, however, with “just” $98.79 million. This is the curse of great expectations. Overall, the box office rose 40% from last weekend, reaching $167 million. However, this was 5.1% lower than the same weekend last year. Had The Fate of the Furious matched expectations, then 2017 would have had a 5% lead over last year. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $3.37 billion and has a 7.2% lead over 2016. That will shrink as last year’s The Jungle Book’s legs will undoubtedly be better than The Fate of the Furious’s legs, but I don’t think 2017 will fall behind 2016 any time soon.
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April 15th, 2017
As expected, The Fate of the Furious dominated at the domestic box office on Friday, earning $45.6 million. This is not the best opening-day record for the franchise—Furious 7 owns that with $67.41 million—and it is almost a third lower than the previous installment, but if it manages the same legs, it will earn just under $100 million over the weekend. Universal is estimating an opening weekend of $103.8 million. Granted, this film’s reviews are 15 points lower than Furious 7’s, and that should hurt its legs. On the other hand, both films earned a solid A from CinemaScore. In fact, every film in the franchise since Fast Five has earned an A from CinemaScore. Consistency. A drop like this is troubling, but it is more than made up for by the film’s international performance…
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April 13th, 2017
The headline isn’t 100% accurate, because let’s face it, there is no competition this week. The Fate of the Furious is the only wide release of the week (Spark was dropped to select cities.) and it will beat the nearest competition likely by over $100 million. It will likely earn more than the rest of the box office combined will earn. There could be a close race for second place between The Boss Baby and Beauty and the Beast, but for the most part, there will be no mystery at the box office this weekend. As for this weekend last year, it was also really one-sided. The Jungle Book opened with $103.26 million, while Barbershop: The Next Cut was a distant second with $20.24 million. The Fate of the Furious will need to match this one-two punch, or at least come close, for 2017 to continue building on its lead over 2016. I’m cautiously optimistic.
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April 13th, 2017
Ghost in the Shell rose to first place with $41.3 million in 57 markets for a two-week international total of $92.8 million. The film was aided by a first place debut in China. It earned $21.15 million over the weekend for a total opening of $21.49 million. It also opened in Japan with $3.2 million over the weekend. The film’s international running tally is nearly triple its domestic one and that spread will only grow. This will help the studio somewhat; however, it would need to make over $250 million internationally to have any real shot at breaking even.
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April 11th, 2017
It was a good weekend at the box office, considering the time of year, but this was almost entirely due to holdovers. The Boss Baby earned $26.36 million, which was within a rounding of our prediction, while Beauty and the Beast was relatively close behind. This meant the best new release, Smurfs: The Lost Village, only managed third place. Furthermore, it wasn’t even close to second place. Overall, the box office fell 30% from last weekend. More importantly, it was 14% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $3.15 billion becoming the fastest year to reach $3 billion. It is also 6.4% or $190 million ahead of last year’s pace. It is still early, but 2017 is starting to build up a lead that will act as a cushion when it inevitably hits a soft patch.
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April 9th, 2017
The Boss Baby will score another win at the box office this weekend, with Fox predicting a total of $26.3 million for the weekend, down 48% from its debut, and $89.4 million to date. That’s a remarkably strong second weekend, considering that Beauty and the Beast will be down virtually the same proporation—45%—in its fourth weekend. Disney’s blockbuster will do $25 million for a cume of $432 million so far domestically. With $545.1 million internationally, the film now has $977.4 million worldwide, and will pass the billion dollar mark this week.
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April 8th, 2017
There was quite a race at the box office on Friday. The Boss Baby led the way with $6.86 million for the day, putting it just ahead of Beauty and the Beast, which made $6.85 million. This is a 56% decline from the film’s opening Friday, which is a little high for a family film. Granted, its reviews are not good, but it did get an A minus from CinemaScore. It should bounce back on Saturday, but a nearly 50% drop-off to just under $26 million is likely at this point.
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April 6th, 2017
It is the first weekend of April and there are two and a half films opening wide this week. The widest of these is Smurfs: The Lost Village, but direct competition is going to hurt it at the box office. Going in Style is aiming to be a sleeper hit, but its reviews will likely get in the way of that. Meanwhile, The Case for Christ is opening in barely more than 1,000 theaters and it is aiming for the churchgoing crowd and no one else. On the positive side, it is Easter next weekend, so it should have good legs. Unfortunately for the new releases, it looks like The Boss Baby will have a relatively easy time repeating in first place, while Beauty and the Beast will be close behind in second. This weekend last year, The Boss opened in first place with $23.59 million, while Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice was right behind with $23.36 million. This week we should have at least two films top that, perhaps even three if Smurfs: The Lost Village is on the high end of expectations. 2017 should continue to add to its lead over 2016.
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April 5th, 2017
Beauty and the Beast completed the threepeat earning first place on the international chart with $66.5 million in 55 markets for totals of $480.8 million internationally and $874.1 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this past weekend, but it did do really well in a number of mid-level markets. Malaysia was the best earning $2.4 million, which is the second best opening in that market this year. Kong: Skull Island earned $2.6 million during its debut there. The Netherlands managed $1.8 million over the weekend for a total opening of $2.3 million, which is the best opening of the year so far. Likewise, it had the best openings of 2017 in both New Zealand ($1.4 million over the weekend and $1.7 million including previews) and in Chile ($1.5 million / $1.6 million). It will soon become the first film of 2017 to reach $1 billion worldwide and the 14th film from Disney to reach that milestone.
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April 4th, 2017
Wide releases again dominated the theater average chart taking two of the top three spots. This includes The Boss Baby, which led the way with $13,305. The only limited release in the $10,000 club was David Lynch: The Art Life with $10,823 in its lone theater. Last week’s champ, Beauty and the Beast, was right behind with an average of $10,789.
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April 4th, 2017
The Boss Baby beat expectations and earned first place with $50.20 million over the weekend. The strong competition pushed Beauty and the Beast into second place, but it nearly hit $400 million and it is on pace for $500 million, so I wouldn’t feel too bad for the film. On the other hand, you can feel bad for Ghost in the Shell, because an opening of just $18.68 million on a $110 million production budget is a disaster. Overall, the box office rose 16% from last week reaching $169 million. Compared to last year, the box office rose 28%, which is very impressive. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $2.98 billion, putting it 6.1% or $170 million ahead of 2016’s pace. We are far enough into the year that a lead this big is significant. That doesn’t mean 2017 is guaranteed to come out ahead, but this is certainly reason to be optimistic.
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April 2nd, 2017
A great marketing campaign and a beautifully-timed opening will most likely combine to give The Boss Baby a win at the box office this weekend, according to studio estimates released on Sunday. Victory isn’t completely assured, because the margin is fairly slim: Boss Baby is headed for $49 million, per Fox’s Sunday morning estimate, while Disney is expecting $47.5 million for Beauty and the Beast. Both studios expect Beast to win on Sunday, so the eventual winner will depend on today’s figures, but it would be a real surprise if the order changes when final numbers come in tomorrow.
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April 1st, 2017
The Boss Baby opened in first place on Friday with $15.5 million. This is higher than our original prediction and the adjusted prediction based on Thursday previews. Some are expecting an opening weekend of over $50 million, but that seems a tad high. The reviews have continued to improve and are now 49% positive, and the film earned an A minus from CinemaScore, which is bog standard for a family film. I think the direct competition from Beauty and the Beast will prevent it from getting to $50 million, meaning there will be a virtual tie on top of the charts over the weekend.
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March 30th, 2017
Two new wide releases attempt to dethrone Beauty and the Beast this weekend, but I wouldn’t bet on either of them doing it. Earlier this week, it looked like Ghost in the Shell was a potential $100 million hit. Then its reviews collapsed. The Boss Baby, on the other hand, started with terrible reviews, but its buzz is growing despite this. This weekend last year, the best new release was God’s Not Dead 2, which opened with $7.6 million, and 2017 is in an excellent position to gain ground as a result. Granted, the top film that weekend was Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice with over $50 million and no film this week will match that, but the top three films last year earned just over $80 million, while the top three films this year should earn more than $100 million.
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March 30th, 2017
Beauty and the Beast remained in first place on the international chart with $119.2 million in 50 markets for totals of $373.3 million internationally and $692.3 million worldwide. The film had two major market openings this past weekend scoring first place in Australia with $10.02 million on 706 screens, including previews. It also topped the chart in France with $7.9 million over the weekend, $8.4 million including previews. Its biggest market overall was the U.K., where it added $15.41 million in 636 theaters over the weekend for a two-week total of $49.82 million. At the end of the weekend, Disney’s share of the worldwide box office was just over $300 million, so unless the movie cost more to advertise than it did to make, it has broken even. Furthermore, even if the film had no more major markets left to open in, it would be on pace to reach $1 billion to $1.1 billion worldwide. With Japan and a few more smaller markets left, it could top $1.2 billion.
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March 29th, 2017
It was a bad week for limited releases, as the only two films to top $10,000 on the per theater chart were also the two biggest hits on the weekend chart. Beauty and the Beast remained in first place with an average of $21,479, while Power Rangers were well back with an average of $10,913.
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March 27th, 2017
Our predictions for Beauty and the Beast was higher than average, but even we underestimated the film’s weekend box office numbers. It fell just 48% to $90.43 million, which was more than double the second place film, Power Rangers. This one-two punch helped the overall box office earn $202 million, but this was 23% lower than last weekend. It was also 20% lower than the same weekend last year. Granted, this weekend last year was the weekend Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice debuted, so a decline like this was expected. Year-to-date, 2017 has earned $2.75 billion, putting it 6.7% or $170 million ahead of last year’s pace.
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March 26th, 2017
An impressive 49% second-weekend drop for Beauty and the Beast will be more than enough to secure its place at the top of the box office chart once more, but that doesn’t diminish the achievement of Power Rangers in debuting with an estimated $40.5 million. With two strong movies powering box office receipts, a weekend that was expected to be down substantially from the comparable weekend last year, when Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice launched with $166 million, will actually be off just 20%, and 2017 remains 5% ahead of 2016 year-to-date.
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March 25th, 2017
Most people were expecting Beauty and the Beast to retain first place on Friday with around $20 million. The consensus appeared to be $19 million, but my prediction was based on a little more than $21 million. In reality, it earned $23.56 million. This will help it to just over $90 million during the weekend and the film’s box office will blow past $300 million by Sunday. On the other hand, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice earned $81.58 million on its opening Friday alone, so 2017 is still likely going to lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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March 23rd, 2017
There are three wide releases this week, but none of them have a shot at topping Beauty and the Beast at the box office. In fact, all three films combined won’t make as much as Beauty and the Beast does this weekend. Of the three wide releases, Power Rangers has the best chance of box office success and it does have a shot at $100 million domestically. Life could become a midlevel hit and since it likely cost a lot less to make, it could be a bigger financial success. Finally there’s CHiPs, which has gained no traction with audiences. It will likely miss the top five. This weekend last year, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice opened with a then March record of $166.01 million. Nothing playing this weekend will match that. Beauty and the Beast might not make half that. Fortunately, 2017 has a $100 million lead on 2016, so one bad weekend in the year-over-year comparison won’t do too much damage.
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March 22nd, 2017
Beauty and the Beast dominated the international chart even more than it dominated the domestic one earning $180.0 million in 44 markets. The film’s worldwide opening was the second best for March, behind only Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice; however, BvS opened truly worldwide, while Beauty and the Beast only opened in about two thirds of the international market. Unsurprisingly, the film’s biggest single market was China, where it pulled in $44.72 million over the weekend, $45.01 million including Thursday’s previews. It was also a monster hit in the U.K., where it earned $24.37 million in 567 theaters, which was the biggest March opening of all time in that market. The next biggest market was South Korea with $10.68 million on 1,625 screens over the weekend and $11.88 million in total. It also cracked $10 million in Mexico ($11.6 million); Germany ($10.7 million), and Brazil ($10.4 million). At this point, getting to $1 billion worldwide seems like a safe bet, especially with openings in France, Australia, Japan, and other markets left to go. We will of course track its progress there.
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March 22nd, 2017
The winners of our Beauty and the Best contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Beauty and the Beast’s opening weekend were...
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March 21st, 2017
Beauty and the Beast had the best theater average of 2017, so far, at $41,508. This puts it just ahead of Kedi, which opened with $40,103 in its lone theater. The second best average of the week was earned by T2: Trainspotting at $34,115 in five theaters, which is the third best average of the year so far. Song to Song was the only other film to earn an average above $10,000 over the weekend, pulling in $12,640 in four theaters. While Frantz didn’t quite get into the $10,000 club over the weekend, it came close with an average of $9,373. Furthermore, it was a Wednesday release and earned a five-date average of $11,470.
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March 21st, 2017
Beauty and the Beast was expected to break records during its opening weekend, but its final tally of $174.75 million is still impressive, even compared to the expectations. The rest of the box office wasn’t hurt as badly as one would predict given the explosive hit at the top and that helped the overall box office grow by 59% to $261 million. This is almost double what it was this weekend last year. More importantly, this was enough to put 2017 in the lead in the year-over-year comparison. At the end of the weekend, 2017 had earned $2.39 billion, compared to $2.30 billion for 2016. Granted, this is partially due to a misalignment of monster hits, as Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice opened the following weekend last year. That said, I really don’t think 2017 will fall behind given its current $95 million lead.
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March 19th, 2017
Beauty and the Beast set out this weekend to show that it’s not just super heroes who can deliver big openings at the box office, and it’s doing so in some style. Disney is projecting a $170 million opening weekend for the live action fairytale, and the film is setting records around the world. At home, it’ll have the biggest March weekend of all time, and the fourth-best Saturday of all time. The studio is projecting it will have the sixth-best Sunday in history, although my money would be on it slightly outperforming today, for the fifth-best Sunday, and that it will challenge Iron Man 3’s $174 million for the sixth-best opening of all time. Only Star Wars, super heroes, and dinosaur-themed movies have done better on opening weekend.
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March 18th, 2017
As expected, Beauty and the Beast earned first place on Friday. Its performance was a little better than expected, with Disney’s movie earning $63.79 million. To put this into perspective, this is more than Kong: Skull Island earned during its opening weekend. There are some confusing elements to deal with. Firstly, the reviews improved to 71% positive, which is still lower than anticipated, but good enough to not hurt the film’s legs. Additionally, it earned a solid A from CinemaScore. Strangely, the demographics changed, with women representing 72% of Friday’s audiences. That’s up from just under 60% during Thursday’s previews and a lot of times it goes in the other direction. So what does this mean for the future? The film just needs an internal multiplier above 2.6 to become the biggest March opening of all time. That seems very likely at this point. In fact, anything less than $175 million will be seen as a little disappointing.
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March 17th, 2017
Beauty and the Beast scared away most of the wide-release competition and there are not many limited releases either this weekend. T2: Trainspotting is by far the biggest in terms of buzz. We also have a few like Mean Dreams, which have good reviews, but are playing on VOD. Or foreign-language films like Frantz.
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March 17th, 2017
There are three wide releases next weekend: Power Rangers, Life, and CHiPs. However, none of them are expected to match Beauty and the Beast’s second weekend of release. That said, Power Rangers is widely expected to be the biggest of the three films and it is the best choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Power Rangers.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprise consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release).
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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March 17th, 2017
Beauty and the Beast had the best previews of the year so far, earning $16.3 million during midnight shows last night. This tops Logan’s $9.5 million, which was the previous record holder. More impressively, it is better than Cinderella’s, The Jungle Book’s, and Maleficent’s combined previews of $10.7 million. Judging where it goes from here is a little tougher, on the other hand. Its reviews are good, but not amazing, while its demographics are more balanced than I expected. The audience was mostly women, but less than 60% overall. Cinderella had a 77% female audience. Also, there was a wide range of age groups among the audience, meaning it wasn’t just families going with their kids, but adults who grew up on the original movie. We predicted $168 million for the weekend, and that could be a little too conservative after this result. I’m not going to change the prediction just yet, but if Friday is big, then we will be forced to readjust our outlook.
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March 17th, 2017
Beauty and the Beast was always expected to be the biggest hit of the month. Now the prevailing wisdom has the film becoming the biggest March opening of all time. Even if it doesn’t match the high end of expectations, it is widely expected to earn more than the entire box office did this weekend last year. On the downside, The Belko Experiment isn’t expected to open in the top five, in fact, it could miss the Mendoza Line. Furthermore, holdovers like Kong: Skull Island and Logan will take a beating at the box office. Overall, the news looks great and 2017 should actually get ahead of 2016 for the first time all year.
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March 16th, 2017
The winners of our King of Predictions contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Kong: Skull Island’s opening weekend were...
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March 14th, 2017
Kong: Skull Island dominated the box office earning $61.03 million over the weekend. This is much better than predicted and this if reports are true, this is because it was a huge hit with families. Skull Island’s success hurt Logan, which fell to second place with $38.11 million over the weekend. Overall, the box office fell 13% from last weekend, but that’s still 22% more than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date is even more impressive. Back-to-back wins for 2017 has cut 2016’s lead to 0.8% at just $17 million. If Beauty and the Beast does as well as some expect it to do, 2017 could take the lead by the end of this coming weekend.
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March 9th, 2017
Like this weekend, there is only one truly wide release next weekend: Beauty and the Beast. The Belko Experiment is opening in just 1,200 theaters and it looks like T2: Transpotting is opening in even fewer theaters, 5 to be exact. Because it is the only truly wide release of the week, it is the only choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Beauty and the Beast.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprise consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release).
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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March 1st, 2017
February was an okay month. The films that missed expectations were mostly balanced by the films that were pleasant surprises. Unfortunately, last February was amazing as Deadpool dominated the chart, so 2017 has fallen further behind 2016 and 2016’s lead is now about $100 million. It is not so bad that a good March won’t help 2017 back into the lead. Will that happen? We have some good news and some bad news. Good news: Every week there is one movie that has at least a shot at $100 million. Two of them, Logan and Beauty and the Beast, could reach $200 million or a lot more. Bad News: last March, both Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice earned more than $300 million. That’s a really powerful one-two punch and I don’t think we can replicate that this time around. On the other hand, last March, the third best film of the month was 10 Cloverfield Lane, while there were four films that were expected to open wide that earned less than $10 million at the box office. 2017 likely won’t be as good at the top, but I also don’t think it will have as many bombs either. If Beauty and the Beast reaches the very high end of expectations, then 2017 could even close the gap with 2016 entirely. I’ll be happy getting halfway there.
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November 14th, 2016
Fantasy romance starring Emma Watson and Dan Stevens opens March 17, 2017 ... Full Movie Details.
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November 12th, 2016
Fantasy romance starring Emma Watson and Dan Stevens opens March 17, 2017 ... Full Movie Details.
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