February 28th, 2016
It’s Oscar day and, if all goes to plan, I will be live-blogging the ceremony tonight. Here is the list of nominees marked according to predictions from our readers, and my personal wishes. Nominees in Bold are the ones predicted to win by our readers (we’ll have a full rundown of the predictions at noon, after the contest ends). If I am predicting a different film, those are in Italics. Meanwhile, the nominees I want to win, but don’t think will win, are Underlined. There are a few categories where the film I really think deserves the award was not even nominated, plus a few I don’t have a real opinion on.
If you haven’t done so already, it’s not too late to enter our Oscar competition, and win all Best Picture nominees on Blu-ray or DVD.
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January 15th, 2016
The Oscar nominations were announced at 5:30 am Pacific time. Nothing is good that early in the morning. Worse still, this was a terrible year for snubs, especially when it comes to diversity of the nominees. The voters for the Oscars are 94% white and 77% male... but that's still more diverse than the list of nominees. The Revenant led the way with 12 nominations and it is expected to win a few of those, while it is a serious contender in most of the categories it was nominated in.
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January 9th, 2016
The BAFTA nominations were announced and you can read them on their site... in alphabetical order. Alphabetical order is very useful in most circumstances, but not here. On the other hand, the nominees within each category are not presented in alphabetical order. ... Are the BAFTAs trolling us? As for the actual nominees, the big winners here are Bridge of Spies and Carol, both of which earned nine nominations. For Carol, this is just another impressive score, but this was a pleasant surprise for Bridge of Spies.
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October 14th, 2015
Pitch Perfect 2 led the new releases for September 22nd and earned first place on the combined DVD and Blu-ray chart for September 27th. The film sold 974,000 units / $16.76 million during its first week of release, 55% of which was sold on Blu-ray. That's really impressive for this type of film. On the other hand, overall sales were 13% lower than the original film opened with. Additionally, the franchise box set earned fifth place with 48,000 units / $1.37 million.
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October 10th, 2015
Six new releases from the week of September 15th reached the top 30 on the combined DVD and Blu-ray chart for September 20th. This includes four in the top five and a new number one. Furious 7 earned first place with 1.87 million units / $31.89 million on the single release for an opening week Blu-ray share of 64%. Impressive. Meanwhile the second Fast and Furious Franchise Box Set released this year earned fifth place with 62,000 units / $3.46 million. While the film very nearly earned twice that of its nearest competitor, it was still almost exactly 40% lower than Fast and Furious 6 opened with. This decline is huge, but all packaged media is down. Some of the slack is going to VOD, but a lot of home market revenue now goes to subscription streaming services like Netflix or Crunchyroll. Personally, I like packaged media, I still buy CDs, so this is bad news for me.
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October 6th, 2015
A lot of new releases from the week of September 8th reached the top 30 on the combined DVD and Blu-ray chart for September 13th, but none were able to overtake Mad Max: Fury Road. The film sold 342,000 units / $8.29 million over the week for a two-week total of 1.34 million units / $30.99 million.
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September 16th, 2015
This week's home market releases are insane, so I'm going to have to be a lot more judicious in pruning the list. If I were to include all releases that are big enough to include, if they were released during a slow week, there would be more than 100 releases on this week's list (including secondary Blu-rays, but not VOD releases). I have to pare that back to a more reasonable number. Why are there so many releases? Firstly, it is the beginning of the Christmas Shopping season and we have two monster hits on this week's list. Secondly, it is the last week before the fall season begins in earnest, so it is the last week for a lot of shows to come out on DVD before they are running into competition from the new season. It should come as no surprise that the best releases on this week's list are in the TV on DVD categories, including Marvel's Agent Carter: Season 1 and Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.: Season 2. Both of which are co-winners of the Pick of the Week.
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September 15th, 2015
Cinderella is the latest in a long line of Disney animated movies to be turned into a live-action film. I've previously reviewed a few of these movies, including Maleficent. I enjoyed that movie a lot more than most critics did. I loved the fact that the movie took the original characters, but told a different story than the original did. Does this film also do something new with the old story? If not, is it at least a good re-telling of the old story?
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May 21st, 2015
The Avengers: Age of Ultron remained in first place with ease earning $185.0 million in 91 markets for totals of $770.5 million internationally and $1.143 billion worldwide. The film is now the eighth biggest hit of all time, while two of the films above it are also from the Marvel Cinematic Universe. We actually thought that Disney might have overpaid when they bought Marvel. We were wrong. In our defense, no one saw this coming. This past weekend, the film opened in first place in China with $84.84 million for a six-day opening of $154.63 million. China is already the biggest market for Age of Ultron's international run, and it only took four days to get there. Up next for the film is Japan, but the film doesn't open there till July.
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May 8th, 2015
The Avengers: Age of Ultron remained in top spot on the international chart with $168.8 million in 88 markets over the weekend for totals of $439.8 million internationally and $631.1 million worldwide. The film opened in first place in Mexico with $18.89 million over the weekend for a total opening of $25.5 million. The first film opened with $17.44 million, but it opened on a Friday, so it is a little harder to directly compare the two debuts. Age of Ultron did break the five-day opening record, so the studio has to be happy. It also broke the all-time opening record in Ecuador with $2.08 million on 122 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $2.73 million. It was strong, but not record-breaking, in Thailand, where it earned $3.98 million on 468 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $4.43 million. The same could be said of its openings in Spain ($4.84 million on 905 screens) and Peru ($3.16 million on 407). On the other hand, it opened in second place in Slovenia with $44,000 on 21 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $60,000. It was beat by The SpongBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water's sophomore stint there. I don't know what this means about the market and their opinion of Marvel vs. Sponges, but it is certainly an interesting bit of information.
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April 30th, 2015
The Avengers: Age of Ultron got its international run underway a week before its domestic debut and it was an explosive start, with the film earning $200.2 million in 44 markets. These 44 markets represent about 55% of the total international marketplace, while the $200.2 million represents a 44% increase over the first film's debut in those markets. The biggest weekend result came in the U.K. where it pulled in $27.84 million on 583 screens. In South Korea, the film's total opening was $27.97 million on 1,876 screens with $23.05 million of that coming over the weekend. Its U.K. opening was a record for the month of April and the biggest opening of the year so far, but it was less than 10% more than its predecessor's debut there. On the other hand, it more than doubled the original's debut in South Korea.
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April 22nd, 2015
Furious 7 again dominated the weekend international box office chart earning $166.9 million on 17,834 screens in 67 markets for totals of $857.86 million internationally and $1.152 billion worldwide. This is the first film from Universal to reach $1 billion during its initial run (Jurassic Park got there during its 3D re-release). After opening in China last Sunday, the film made $186.60 million for the week giving it an eight-day total of $250.02 million there. It got to that milestone faster than any film and it is just $70 million behind Age of Extinction in that market. This is simply a stunning result. On the other hand, the film only managed third place in Japan with $6.2 million.
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April 16th, 2015
Furious 7 remained just as dominant at the international box office this weekend as it did in its opening weekend earning $198.7 million in 66 markets for totals of $550.47 million internationally and $802.0 million worldwide. It became the first film in the franchise and just the 46th film overall to crack the $800 million market worldwide. This past weekend, the film earned first place in China with $63.24 million in just one day. The film opened on Sunday there, with a record opening day for that market, which was close to its opening day domestic box office. The film opened in first place in Russia with $15.86 million on 1,184 screens. At this pace, the film will top $1 billion over the weekend and I can't imagine the studio won't try to make an eighth installment.
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April 14th, 2015
It didn't take long for for Furious 7 to become the biggest hit of the year; in fact, it took just five days to top Cinderella. Over the weekend, it became the first film released in 2015 to reach the $200 million milestone and thanks to a better than expected hold, reached $250 million as well. Home finished well back in second place, while The Longest Ride managed third place. Overall, the box office fell 42% from last weekend down to $131 million, which is 6.3% lower than the same weekend last year. Furious 7 topped Captain America: The Winter Soldier, but Rio 2 and the other films of 2014 had better depth giving 2014 the win. 2015 is still ahead in the year-to-date comparison, up 4.1% at $2.85 billion to $2.74 billion.
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April 9th, 2015
There's only one wide release this week, The Longest Ride, but it has an approximately zero percent chance of earning first place. Unless Furious 7 falls about 80% and The Longest Ride beats expectations, it will be no where near top spot. In fact, The Longest Ride likely won't be able to score second place, finishing behind Home. As for this weekend last year, there were three wide releases, led by Rio 2, which earned second place with $39.33 million. The Longest Ride might not make that much in total. On the other hand, the sophomore stint for Furious 7 will top the sophomore stint for Captain America: The Winter Soldier. 2015 will be stronger on top, but that might not be enough to win in the year-over-year comparison.
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April 9th, 2015
Furious 7 dominated the international chart with $245.05 million on 10,683 screens in 63 markets for a worldwide opening of $392.22 million. Unless the film has terrible legs, it should get to $1 billion. Speaking of $1 billion, Universal announced they reached $1 billion worldwide for the year in the earliest ever time for the studio. The previous record was May 31st, which was set in 2013. So not only did they beat the record, they crushed it. The film's best individual market was Mexico, where it earned $21.5 million on 685 screens. It also cracked $15 million in the U.K. ($18.7 million on 537); Germany ($15.9 million on 650). Additionally, the film topped $10 million in France ($11.4 million on 707); Brazil ($11.4 million on 551); Australia ($11.3 million on 255); Taiwan ($10.3 million on 80). This is an incredible run so far and could be a good omen for the upcoming summer blockbuster season.
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April 7th, 2015
As expected, Furious 7 easily won the race for top spot on the weekend box office chart. However, it did so in an unexpectedly robust way, destroying a number of records along the way. This helped the overall box office grow 49% from last weekend to $224 million. More importantly, the overall box office was 34% more than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2015 is now 3.1% above 2014's pace at $2.64 billion to $2.56 billion. Assuming Furious 7 has any legs at all, this lead will continue to grow next weekend.
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April 3rd, 2015
There's only one wide release this week, but it is expected to be a record-breaking debut. Furious 7 is widely expected to become the first film of 2015 to crack $100 million during its opening weekend. This would also give it the record for biggest April opening, topping the current record-owner, Captain America: The Winter Soldier. Additionally, Home should do well in a counter-programming role and that will also help the box office. This weekend last year was the weekend The Winter Soldier set the April record. Since nearly everyone thinks that record will fall and this year is expected to have better depth, 2015 should win in the year-over-year comparison with relative ease.
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April 2nd, 2015
Cinderella returned to first place after a week in second. It did so with $40.0 million in 53 markets for totals of $187.7 million internationally and $337.3 million worldwide. The film opened in a number of major markets, including the U.K., where it earned first place with $5.65 million in 554 theaters. The film took $3.8 million in France and $3.7 million in Australia, while Brazil was close behind with $3.4 million. The film's debut in Spain wasn't as strong at $2.1 million, but that was still the best result of the weekend and the third best opening of the year. Meanwhile in China, the film added $12.33 million over the full week for a total of $65.92 million after three. At this pace, the film will have no trouble getting to $400 million worldwide, which will be enough to cover its entire production budget and perhaps all of its P&A budget.
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March 31st, 2015
After a couple of soft weeks at the box office, both new wide releases beat expectations. In fact, Home nearly doubled predictions. Get Hard also beat expectations, albeit by a smaller margin. Add in solid runs by the holdovers and the overall box office was very strong at $150 million. This is 19% higher than last week and 7.3% higher than the same weekend last year. We can thank Home entirely for this win. If it had merely matched predictions, 2015 would have lost the in the year-over-year comparisons. Year-to-date, 2015 is ahead of 2014 by a 2.0% margin at $2.37 billion to $2.32 billion.
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March 29th, 2015
DreamWorks Animation has been having a tough time of it recently. Aside from How to Train Your Dragon 2, their last three films, Penguins of Madagascar, Mr. Peabody & Sherman and Turbo were all financial failures, and, as an animation house, they are stuck with a business model that demands putting $100 million–$200 million into each film and hoping for a $500 million-plus global hit. That’s made doubly-difficult when you’re operating as a standalone entity and can’t fall back on the wider resources of the studio during hard times.
The opening weekend for Home, projected at $54 million, according to distributor Fox, is therefore very welcome news indeed. It marks the best opening by a non-sequel for the production house since Monsters vs. Aliens opened with $59.3 million on this weekend in 2009, and the third-best non-sequel debut in their history behind that film and Kung Fun Panda’s $60 million start in 2008.
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March 26th, 2015
There is an actual race at the box office this weekend. This is rare, because there's usually one obvious number one film, as studios don't want to deal with competition. However, this week, both Get Hard and Home have a shot at first place with $30 million or so. Additionally, there are two other films, Insurgent and Cinderella, that are aiming to reach $20 million over the weekend. That's a lot of depth. There is one final film of note, It Follows, which is expanding semi-wide and could find a spot in the top five. This weekend last year, the box office was led by Noah with $43.72 million, while two other films, Divergent and Muppets Most Wanted earned more than $10 million. 2015 has better depth, but it won't be as strong at the top. I'm not sure which year will come out on top, but it should be close.
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March 26th, 2015
As expected, Insurgent earned first place on the international chart earning $48.4 million on 10,187 screens in 76 markets. The film's biggest market was France, where it opened in first place with $6 million, while it made $4.37 million in 497 theaters in the U.K. earning first place there as well. Its best growth came from Brazil, where it nearly tripled the first film with $4.2 million. The film had to settle for second place in Russia with $3.76 million on 1,570 screens, but that was still close to 20% more than its predecessor opened with.
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March 24th, 2015
As expected, Insurgent led the way at the box office; however, it didn't live up to Divergent's opening from last year. Worse still, both The Gunman and Do You Believe? failed to match low expectations. Overall, the box office did dip from last week, but by less than $1 million or 0.5%. Its decline from last year was more troublesome at 7.3%. Year-to-date, 2015 is still ahead of 2014, but by only 2.2% at $2.18 billion to $2.13 billion.
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March 22nd, 2015
A mix of positive and negative factors (poor reviews vs. fan loyalty, competition vs. Spring break and so on) are neatly canceling one another out this weekend to give Insurgent an opening weekend almost perfectly in line with the $54.6 million debut enjoyed by Divergent this time last year. Lionsgate is officially projecting a $54 million weekend. The numbers we’re seeing suggest the film will end up a shade lower than that—perhaps $53 million would be a safer bet—but either way, it’s an impressive start, and the fifth-best weekend of 2015 so far.
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March 19th, 2015
Insurgent leads the three wide releases coming out this weekend. Although that is really an understatement. Insurgent will likely earn more on its opening day than the combined weekend totals of The Gunman and Do You Believe? The real competition for Insurgent is Divergent, which opened this weekend last year with $54.61 million. If Insurgent doesn't at least match that, then the franchise is in trouble going forward. Cinderella should have no trouble earning second place, but how much Insurgent's crossover audience hurts Cinderella will go a long way in determining Cinderella's legs. This weekend last year, Divergent opened and it looks like Insurgent will have no trouble topping that number. Additionally, Muppets Most Wanted opened in second place with $17.01 million and Cinderella should make twice that this weekend. This should give 2015 an easy win over the weekend in the year-over-year comparison.
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March 18th, 2015
Cinderella led the way on the international box office, but it can't be described as a Cinderella opening, as every one expected it to earn first place. The film pulled in $62.4 million in 31 markets during its first weekend of release. This includes $25.01 million during its first weekend in China, which was easily enough for first place. It also earned first place in Russia with $2.62 million on 1,550 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $7.06 million. The film placed first in Mexico ($5 million) and Italy ($4.6 million). It is still too early to tell where it will finish, but this is a strong start. By this time next week, it will likely have pulled in enough to cover its entire production budget.
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March 18th, 2015
The winners of our Burnt to a Cinder contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Cinderella opening weekend were...
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March 18th, 2015
It Follows was one of five new releases to reach the $10,000 club, based on theater averages this weekend. It opened with an average of $40,022 in four theaters, which is the second-best for a film opening in 2015, just behind What We Do in the Shadows. The overall box office leader, Cinderella, was well back in second place with an average of $17,653. Seymour: An Introduction opened with an average of $13,294 in two theaters. 3 Hearts earned $11,794 in its lone theater. Tales of Hoffmann was right behind with an average of $11,670 in two theaters.
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March 16th, 2015
As expected, Cinderella easily won the race to the top of the box office. However, it didn't quite do as well as expected. Additionally, Run All Night's opening was also a little softer than expected. Fortunately, despite this, the overall box office still bounced back from last weekend growing by 47% to $132 million. This was also higher than last year by 16%, which is really high for a year-over-year comparison. Year-to-date, 2015 is ahead of 2014 by 2.3% at $2.01 billion to $1.97 billion. This is not a huge lead, but it is still enough growth that the overall industry should be happy.
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March 15th, 2015
Disney’s live action remake of Cinderella dominates this weekend’s box office chart with an opening that the studio is projecting will hit $70 million. That’s probably a little on the high side, based on the numbers we’re seeing, but the film will certainly be in the high 60s, which will comfortably put it in the top 10 weekends in March. By way of comparison, it’s a long way short of the $116 million opening enjoying by Alice in Wonderland during 3D’s heyday back in 2010; it’s a bit back from Oz the Great and Powerful’s $79 million start in 2013; and almost exactly on par with the $69 million pulled in by Maleficent last year. Maleficent opened in late May last year, while the other two opened in March, during school Spring Break season. The numbers suggest that Disney will continue to recycle old material in new ways in years to come. Indeed, Spring 2016 will see not one, but two more franchise recycles, with The Jungle Book and Through the Looking Glass already slated for release.
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March 12th, 2015
Last weekend was a disaster, the worst weekend at the box office so far this year. This weekend should bounce back with the opening of Cinderella. Its the first family film to come out since The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water and its reviews are excellent. The other film opening wide this week is Run All Night, which is the latest Liam Neeson action film. There's not much more that needs to be said about that. This weekend last year was led by Mr. Peabody and Sherman with $21.81 million. Cinderella will crush that figure. In fact, Cinderella might make more than the top five made combined last year.
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March 6th, 2015
Cinderella will dominate the box office next weekend, while Run All Night will be an afterthought. Because of this, Cinderella is the only real choice for target film in this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Cinderella.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize, led by FrackNation on DVD. So it would be a Frackenprize... get it?
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, led by FrackNation on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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March 1st, 2015
February was strong thanks to The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water and Fifty Shades of Grey, both of which beat expectations. This March could actually be even better, as there are three or four films that have a decent shot at earning $100 million or more. The top film will likely be Cinderella, which has a real shot at $200 million. Insurgent will almost assuredly get beyond the $100 million mark, while Get Hard, Home, and perhaps Chappie will also get to the century mark. Last March, there were four $100 million hits, led by Divergent, which pulled in $150 million. While this March should be better than February, I'm not sure it will be better than last March. I don't think March 2015 will be much worse than last year, but I think its percentage lead will be chipped away at by the end of the month.
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