November 19th, 2018
It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases and franchise box sets as well. Unfortunately, 2018 has not been a good year for blockbusters for any studio not named Disney. In order to be on this list, a film has to be a major release, earn critical praise, and be on out DVD / Blu-ray and that’s a really short list this year. For example, Universal is the second best studio this year in terms of total domestic box office, but they’ve only released one film that has earned $100 million and overwhelmingly positive reviews. That film, Halloween doesn’t come out on DVD / Blu-ray till January. Most of the rest of the big six are lucky to have more than one entry on this week’s list.
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January 24th, 2017
The Oscar nominations were announced starting at 5:18 am Pacific time. Nothing is good that early in the morning. Worse still, it’s a boring year for nominations with very few surprises worth talking about, especially in the biggest categories. Leading the way was La La Land with 14 nominations, tying the record.
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January 12th, 2017
The last of the Directors Guild of America nominations were announced and the Oscars are really shaping up to be a one-movie show. That movie is Deadpool. I’m joking of course, but it did get yet another nomination. At this point, it could earn a Best Picture Oscar nomination and I wouldn’t be surprised. The film that is dominating Awards Season is La La Land and frankly I’ve lost count of the number of nominations it has received.
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January 11th, 2017
The Producers Guild of America finally finished announcing their nominations. (They spread out their announcements for reasons I’ve never quite understood.) Most of the films on this list have already earned more than a few previous nominations. We appear to be settling into a predictable Awards Season.
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January 4th, 2017
The Writers Guild of America is the latest group nominees to be announced. There are a lot of categories that WGA hand out awards, but only three of them are theatrical releases. The list of nominees include several major Awards Season players, like Hidden Figures, but there are also some surprises.
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December 12th, 2016
The Golden Globes nominations were announced and we are starting to see a few names pop up over and over again. La La Land led the way with seven nominations, but Moonlight was right behind with six and Manchester by the Sea earned five. You will be hearing those three names over and over and over again this Awards Season.
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June 4th, 2016
Zootopia is slowly making its way to $1 billion worldwide [Copy Ed: It passed $1 billion this weekend], but in the meantime, it arrives on the home market this week. It is one of the biggest hits of the year so far and earned Oscar-worthy reviews. Will my voice be added to choir of praise? Or will I be part of the dissenting minority?
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May 17th, 2016
The Deadpool Blu-ray arrived last Tuesday, which is par for course for Fox, as their screeners always seem to arrive as late as possible while still technically not being late. There are updates below with the extras. On a side note, the film is so good, I was tempted to make it the Pick of the Week for the second week in a row. However, in the end I went with Dark Passage, a classic Film Noir with a famous hook. The Blu-ray is the Pick of the Week.
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May 10th, 2016
The Curse of Great Expectations hit Captain America: Civil War, as it had a monster opening, but still missed even the low end of expectations at $179.14 million. This is the best opening for any film this year, so Disney should be more than happy with this result. Overall, the box office pulled in $237 million, which is 121% more than last weekend. Granted, it is the official start of summer, so an increase like that is to be expected. More importantly, it is 80% higher than the same weekend last year. Even if you compare this weekend to the start of summer last year, 2016 still comes out ahead, albeit by a much smaller margin of 1.8%. Year-to-date, 2016 padded its lead, which grew to 7.0% at $3.77 billion to $3.53 billion.
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May 9th, 2016
It is officially the summer blockbuster season, which is historically the worst time of year for the home market. We are usually flooded with duds from January and February. However, this year we have the biggest hit of the year so far, Deadpool, which is coming out on DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, and 4K. Unless your eyesight is better than 20/20, 4k is not worth the upgrade, but the Blu-ray is the Pick of the Week. It isn't the only contender for that title. Mustang (DVD or Blu-ray) and The Little Girl Who Lives Down the Lane (Blu-ray) are also must haves.
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May 9th, 2016
Deadpool is proof that a troubled production doesn't necessarily result in a bad product. A Deadpool film with Ryan Reynolds was first proposed more than a decade ago, while this version has been in some form of production on and off since 2010. Now that the film has finally been made, was the wait worth it? And is the DVD / Blu-ray worth picking up? ... I won't be able to answer that second question, because I only have a digital screener. This also means I have to watch the movie on my computer, which is a pain. At least I don't have to stream it.
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May 2nd, 2016
This week the biggest releases are busted Oscar-bait, Joy; a post-apocalyptic young adult adaptation, The 5th Wave; and the latest from Nicholas Sparks, The Choice. Joy is worth at least a rental. The other two are not. There are no major releases that are contenders for Pick of the Week, so that title will go to a smaller release, East Side Sushi on DVD. It has earned unanimously positive reviews, but no buzz.
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April 26th, 2016
We are in Q2, which is historically the slowest time of the year on the home market. The last of the monster Christmas hits were released weeks ago and none of the yearly year hits have come out yet. Ironically, the biggest release of the week is actually a Christmas film, Krampus, and its Blu-ray Combo Pack is a contender for Pick of the Week. (It is admittedly a slow week.) Its two biggest competitors are both foreign-language films: Phoenix: Criterion Collection - Buy from Amazon: DVD or Blu-ray and Son of Saul - Buy from Amazon: DVD or Blu-ray. Son of Saul won the Oscar this year for Best Foreign-Language Film, but I'm going with Phoenix instead.
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April 24th, 2016
What in theory should have been a battle at the box office has turned into a rout this weekend, with The Jungle Book set to earn $60 million, according to Disney’s Sunday morning estimate, and The Huntsman: Winter’s War limping into second place with $20.1 million, per Universal.
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April 23rd, 2016
The Jungle Book remained the top draw on Friday with $16.38 million, which was more than twice as much as The Huntsman: Winter’s War opened with. With its reviews and family-friendly nature, Saturday will be even better for Jungle Book, and it should top $60 million over the weekend. That’s a great sophomore weekend, even if it is below our prediction of $65 million. It also won’t quite take the film past $200 million by the end of the weekend, but it will be close enough that Disney will be able to celebrate that milestone shortly.
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April 18th, 2016
Wow. As expected, The Jungle Book easily won first place on the box office chart, but did so with a much, much better than anticipated result of $103.26 million during its opening weekend. This is more than the rest of the box office earned. Barbershop: The Next Cut did well as counter-programming earning $20.24 million. On the other hand, Criminal missed the top five and barely managed to avoid the Mendoza Line. The overall box office was $176 million, which was 68% more than last weekend and 47% more than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 has earned $3.19 billion at the box office, which is 9.2% / $270 million more than last year's pace. I didn't think 2016 had a chance to top 2015, but I'm really getting optimistic now.
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April 16th, 2016
Friday's box office had some good news, some bad news, and some ugly news. The Jungle Book opened with an amazing $32.41 million on Friday. Given its family-friendly target demographic and its 95% positive reviews, it should have a great internal multiplier. For example, Cinderella opened with $23.00 million during its opening day on the way to an opening weekend of $67.88 million. If The Jungle Book has the same internal multiplier, it will earn $96 million over the weekend. However, films that open bigger have a harder time maintaining those numbers. An opening weekend of $90 million is possible, but I think it will fall just short of that mark.
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April 15th, 2016
The Jungle Book has stellar previews pulling in $4.2 million in Thursday. That's not as big as Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice or Deadpool made earlier this year. However, it is more than the $2.3 million Cinderella earned last year. This bodes well for its weekend run.
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April 15th, 2016
Hollywood's attempt to redefine the start of summer as "some time in April" continue this week with the release of The Jungle Book. This film is expected to dominate the box office this weekend and possibly next weekend as well. Barbershop: The Next Cut is also expected to do well, perhaps earning the biggest opening in the franchise, not taking into account inflation. Finally there's Criminal, which should just be happy with a spot in the top five. This weekend last year, Furious 7 led the way, but Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 and Unfriended were close behind. Fortunately, it looks like The Jungle Book will earn more than those three made combined. 2016 should have a good week on the year-over-year comparison.
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April 12th, 2016
The Boss was a little better than anticipated and that helped it overtake Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice during its opening weekend. The fact that BvS couldn't get first place three weekends in a row despite the lack of top-tier competition is really bad news. It's not the only film struggling at the box office, as Hardcore Henry missed the Mendoza Line during its opening. The overall box office fell 20% from last weekend to $105 million. It was also down 20% from the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $2.99 billion, but its lead over 2015 has shrunk to 8.0% or $220 million. That's still a good figure, one that should grow next weekend when The Jungle Book opens.
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April 10th, 2016
Critics have not been kind to The Boss, and audiences are split 50–50 between liking it and hating it, but it will still post a respectable $23.48 million opening, according to Universal’s Sunday projection. Among recent Melissa McCarthy outings, that’s a little ahead of Tammy ($21.6 million on opening weekend), and a little behind Spy! ($29.1 million). Of more immediate interest, it’s almost exactly tied with Batman v Superman at the top of the chart.
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April 9th, 2016
As anticipated, The Boss earned first place on Friday earning $8.08 million to push Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice into second place, for now. That won’t last, probably. Bad reviews won't help its legs, but it is aiming at more mature women, which is a positive. Assuming those two things balance out, more or less, The Boss should earn $21 million to $22 million over the weekend.
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April 7th, 2016
There's some good news and some bad news with regards to the two new releases coming out this week. On the positive side, the competition is a lot weaker than it should be. On the negative side, so are the reviews. The Boss's reviews are weaker than Tammy's are. Additionally, Hardcore Henry's reviews went from more than 80% positive to less than 50% positive and it looks like it will continue to drop. It is playing in a lot more theaters than anticipated, so that's good news. This weekend last year, Furious 7 led the way with nearly $60 million. That's not much less than the top five will earn this weekend. 2016 will lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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April 5th, 2016
As anticipated, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice earned first place over the weekend. Unfortunately, it had the worst sophomore stint decline of any major super hero movie, plummeting to just $51.34 million. God's Not Dead 2 only managed fourth place over the weekend with $7.62 million,which is a worse opening than the original managed. Overall, the box office fell 48% from last weekend, pulling in $132 million. The decline from last year was almost as big at 41%; however, there was a misalignment in the Easter holiday and Easter 2016 out-grossed Easter 2015 by 13%. I'm going to call that a victory. Year-to-date, 2016 still leads 2015 by a significant margin at $2.85 billion to $2.52 billion.
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April 2nd, 2016
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice is officially in trouble after falling 81% on the Friday over Friday comparison. It only managed $15.35 million at the box office yesterday, which is 5.4% less than Deadpool earned during its second Friday of its release. Granted, BvS still has a nearly $30 million lead over Deadpool after 8 days of release, but unless it bounces back on Saturday, that lead isn't safe. Look for between $50 million and $51 million over the weekend. Also look out for panicked Warner Bros. executives and possible rescheduling of some of the D.C. Extended Universe upcoming releases.
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April 1st, 2016
This is going to be a short prediction column, because a computer crash meant I had to redo the entire monthly preview in one day. Not been a fun day. Fortunately, there's only one new wide release, God's Not Dead 2, so there's not a lot to talk about. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice will remain in first place, but all eyes will be on its sophomore stint drop-off. This weekend last year, Furious 7 debuted with $147 million. There's no chance the total box office will top that this year, so 2016 will get pummeled in the year-over-year comparison.
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March 31st, 2016
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice destroyed the competition earning one of the best international opening weekends of all time at $254 million in 66 markets. Worldwide, the film made $420.01 million during its opening weekend, which was the fourth biggest opening weekend of all time. That's the good news. The bad news is the film's legs. Like its domestic run, the film started out amazingly, but saw its fortunes fall as the weekend went on. China is a good example of this. The film started out as well as expected, but by the end it pulled in $56.27 million during its four-day opening weekend. I read that the studio was expecting close to $80 million there. The film also dominated the chart in the U.K. with $21.85 million in 612 theaters. At first look, that's a large number; however, its barely more than Deadpool opened with earlier this year. The film also cracked $10 million in Mexico ($12.43 million) and in Brazil ($10.61 million), while it came close in Australia ($9.54 million).
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March 28th, 2016
As expected, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice dominated the box office earning $166.01 million over the weekend. However, this is lower than anticipated and lower than Saturday's calculation or Sunday's estimates. (Our model turned out to be closer.) Most of the rest of the films in the top five had reason to be happy, as did the overall box office, which was an amazing $252 million. This is 92% higher than last weekend and 68% more than this weekend last year. This kind of year-over-year growth usually only happens when there's a misalignment in holidays, which is exactly what happened this weekend. Last year, Easter didn't happen until April 5th. Year-to-date, 2016 doubled its lead over 2015 at $2.63 billion to $2.27 billion. A $370 million, 16% lead is certainly impressive, but I suspect it will shrink dramatically next month. Hopefully it isn't completely gone by May.
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March 25th, 2016
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice started its box office run with $27.7 million from Thursday previews. This is more than twice what Deadpool earned during its previews earlier this year and it beats the previous pre-summer record of $15.8 million by Furious 7 last year. Unfortunately, there are a couple of reasons to not be too excited. Firstly, the Fanboy effect is really strong for this film. “Committed” would be a word I would use to described the hardcore fans of the DC Extended Universe. They will rush out to see the movie regardless of the quality. Secondly, this is a terrible movie. Its Tomatometer Score is just 30% positive, which is bad no matter how you look at it. Word-of-mouth could do some real damage before the weekend is over.
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March 24th, 2016
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice opens this weekend and should become the biggest film of the year. It has to become the biggest hit of the year. It is the first of ten upcoming films in the DC Extended Universe and it is rumored that Warner Bros. spent $400 million getting this movie to theaters. To be fair, $100 million of this could be described as pre-pre-production for the rest of the DCEU. The other wide release is My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2, which is a delayed sequel that I'm not sure many people are really excited to see. It likely didn't cost a lot, so it should break even sooner rather than later. This weekend last year, Home earned first place with $52.11 million. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice should earn more than that during its opening day.
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March 23rd, 2016
Zootopia remained in first place with $64.8 million in 49 markets for totals of $389.9 million internationally and $590.8 million worldwide. The film's biggest opening was in Australia, where it earned first place with $3.08 million on 479 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.48 million including previews. It also topped the charts during its opening weekend in Brazil with $2.57 million on 774 screens. The film's biggest market overall was China, where it remained in first place with $37.24 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $172.79 million. This blows past Kung Fu Panda 3's record for an animated film and it will soon become the first such film to reach the $200 million mark in that market.
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March 22nd, 2016
At the beginning of the month, it was widely accepted that The Divergent Series: Allegiant would open in first place. However, two things happened to prevent that. Firstly, Zootopia not only opened faster, but its legs were much longer. Secondly, Allegiant failed to match even lowered expectations. This left Zootopia with an easy first place win over the weekend. However, it wasn't the only pleasant surprise, as Miracles from Heaven opened faster than expected. The overall box office slipped 3.3% from last weekend to $131 million. It was also 0.3% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 is still ahead of 2015 by an 8.4% margin at $2.33 billion to $2.15 billion.
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March 20th, 2016
Zootopia is set to win a third straight race and pass $200 million at the domestic box office in the process, but the real story of this weekend is the weak debut by The Divergent Series: Allegiant.
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March 18th, 2016
Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice opens next weekend and many think it will be the biggest box office hit of the year so far. It better be, otherwise Warner Bros. will be pissed that they spent $200 million on this movie only to lose to Deadpool. However, while it might not become the biggest hit of the year, it will certainly become the biggest hit of the weekend. It is the only real choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Hero Quest on DVD, and a previously reviewed movie.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of a two previously reviewed movies, one of which will have a similar family-friendly target audience.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of a two previously reviewed movies, one of which will have a similar family-friendly target audience.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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March 18th, 2016
There are three wide releases coming out this week. This includes The Divergent Series: Allegiant, which, at the beginning of the month, was widely expected to earn first place during its debut. However, Zootopia's success at the box office combined with Allegiant's failure with critics will likely result in Zootopia in earning first place, again. Miracles from Heaven is the latest faith-based film to hit theaters. It might struggle simply because there is too much recent competition for this still niche-market. Finally there's The Bronze, which is opening in just over 1,000 theaters. If it can avoid the Mendoza Line, or at least come close, then it will reach the top ten. That should be doable, maybe. This weekend last year, Insurgent earned first place with just over $52 million, while Cinderella earned second place with close to $35 million. I think Zootopia will come close to Cinderella, but Allegiant will fall far short of Insurgent and that will result in 2016 losing in the year-over-year comparison.
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March 17th, 2016
Zootopia rose to first place with $83.1 million in 45 markets over the weekend for totals of $288.7 million internationally and $432.7 million worldwide. The film's biggest market was China, where it grew to $59.44 million over the weekend for a ten-day total of $112.83 million. It became only the second animated film to earn $100 million in China and should top Kung Fu Panda 3's record-breaking run of $151.74 million. The film opens in Brazil this weekend and the U.K. next weekend, so its run is far from over.
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March 15th, 2016
The weekend box office was mostly positive with both Zootopia and 10 Cloverfield Lane finishing on the very high end of expectations over the weekend. On the other hand, the less said about the other new wide releases the better. Overall, the box office fell from last weekend, down 17% to $135 million, but that's not a bad decline after Zootopia's monster opening. Compared to last year, the box office was up 2.5%, which isn't a great improvement, but any win now increases the chances 2016 will remain competitive with 2015 when we reach the point that Furious 7, The Avengers: Age of Ultron, and Jurassic World opened last year. Speaking of the year-over-year comparison, 2016's lead over 2015 slipped to 8.7% at $2.15 billion to $1.98 billion. That is still an impressive lead and one that will hopefully grow by the end of the month.
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March 10th, 2016
There are four widish releases coming out this week, but only two of them are opening truly wide, while only one of them has any real box office power. That film is 10 Cloverfield Lane, which is the pseudo-sequel to Cloverfield. Very few people think it will match its predecessor, but it should open in a solid second place. That leaves Zootopia in the perfect spot to repeat on the top of the box office chart. This weekend last year, Cinderella led the way with $67.88 million. This is more than any one single film will make this year. However, the second biggest hit of last year was Run All Night at barely more than $11 million and no other film earned substantially more than $6 million. Perhaps the depth from 2016 will help it win in the year-over-year comparison. I'm not overly bullish that will happen, but we can't rule it out either.
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March 10th, 2016
It's a really bad week for international numbers, but not because the box office numbers are low. Ip Man 3 reportedly opened in first place with $75.0 million in three markets over the weekend for a total of $76.5 million. This includes $71.28 million in its native China. I say "reportedly" because this week this story broke. If this is true, then we will have to doubt any box office number coming out of China. This is a mess. Chinese films regularly reach the top five on the international chart, so if we can't trust the official reports, it makes these figures nearly useless.
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March 8th, 2016
As expected Zootopia dominated the weekend box office earning $75.06 million. This is half of what The Hunger Games opened with, but it was still the fifth Biggest March Opening. It also broke a couple of smaller records, but more on that down below. Second place went to London Has Fallen, but it was way, way back with just $21.64 million. This is terrible for a film that cost more than $100 million to make. Overall, the box office was $159 million. This is 41% more than last weekend and 77% more than the same weekend last year. 2016's lead over 2015 rose to just a hair under 10% at $1.97 billion to $1.79 billion. Granted, by this time in 2015, none of the year's $1 billion hits had been released, so things can change rapidly, but this is still a great start so far.
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March 5th, 2016
Zootopia started its run with $19.47 million on Friday. This tops The Lorax's opening by almost exactly $2 million. The film’s reviews remain Oscar-worthy, and its CinemaScore is an A (A+ among its target demographic). This should result in a great internal multiplier, meaning a $75 million weekend is within reach, and becoming the Biggest March Opening for an animated film seems like a lock.
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March 4th, 2016
Judy Hopps and the rest of the cast of Zootopia got off to a great start earning $1.7 million during its Thursday previews. This doesn't sound like a lot compared to Deadpool, which earned more than $12 million just a few weeks ago. However, family films rarely do this well during previews. In fact, Kung Fu Panda 3 didn't even bother with previews. A good comparison is Home, which opened this month last year. That film earned $650,000 during its previews and its reviews were only mixed. As expected, Zootopia is no longer earning 100% positive reviews, but its Tomatometer Score is still a stunning 99% positive. This should help its word-of-mouth and a record-breaking run is still well within reach.
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March 4th, 2016
March begins with three wide releases and there is a potential record-breaker in that list, sort of. Zootopia isn't going to challenge The Hunger Games for Biggest March Opening, but it has a good shot at topping The Lorax for biggest opening for an animated film in March. London Has Fallen needs to make close to $30 million this weekend, if it is to have any real shot at breaking even any time soon. This isn't going to happen. Meanwhile, Whiskey Tango Foxtrot is just hoping to come close to $10 million over the weekend. This weekend last year, the box office was led by Chappie with just $13.35 million. Zootopia will earn way more than that on opening night. It should be a great weekend for 2016 in the year-over-year comparison.
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March 3rd, 2016
Deadpool reached two milestones this weekend topping $300 million internationally and $600 million worldwide. Over the weekend, the film added $40.2 million in 74 markets to its running tally, which now sits at $324.1 million internationally and $609.4 million worldwide. At this pace, the film will have no trouble getting to $400 million internationally and $700 million worldwide. It is massively profitable, but I am worried the studio will double, or triple, the production budget of the sequel and then insist on more control over the process, because the stakes are higher.
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February 29th, 2016
As anticipated, Deadpool easily won the weekend with $31.12 million. This was more than double its nearest competitor, Gods of Egypt, which earned $14.12 million. Unfortunately, those were the only two films that earned more than $10 million over the weekend. The overall box office was $112 million, which was 21% lower than last weekend. This was still 5.1% more than the same weekend last year, while 2016's year-to-date advantage crept up ever so slightly to 3.9% at $1.78 billion to $1.71 billion. Hopefully March can continue this pace.
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February 28th, 2016
This is shaping up to be a triumphant weekend for 20th Century Fox. The studio will take three out of the top five spots at the box office this weekend, with Deadpool claiming a third straight win with $31.5 million, taking it to a huge (for the time of year) $285.6 million by close of business on Sunday. The studio’s Kung Fu Panda 3 will be down just 28% to $9 million in third place, for $128.5 million to date, and their new release Eddie the Eagle will land in fifth with a slightly disappointing, but not horrible, $6.3 million. Oh, and The Revenant is still in the top ten in its tenth weekend in release, and is the hot favorite to win Best Picture at the Oscars this evening (more on that in a moment).
All of which is a roundabout way of saying that Gods of Egypt had a horrible opening weekend…
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February 27th, 2016
Deadpool will again earn first place at the box office, and with more than anticipated. It earned $8.95 million on Friday, which is 45% lower than last Friday's box office. If it maintains this run, then it will earn $31 million over the weekend for a total of $285 million. By this time next weekend, it will be over $300 million domestically. I don't think the studio was expecting $300 million worldwide when it gave the film the greenlight.
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February 26th, 2016
There are three wide releases looking to overtake Deadpool at the box office. I seriously doubt any of them will be able to do so. In fact, all three combined might not top Deadpool over the weekend. Gods of Egypt is by far the biggest costing $140 million, but it likely won't earn 10% of that over the weekend. Triple 9 is a rather generic action film that bombed in its debut in the U.K., which doesn't bode well for its run here. Finally, Eddie the Eagle is a feel-good inspirational sports movie based on a real life story. Unfortunately, the sport in question is ski-jumping, which isn't popular enough to expect the movie will find an audience in theaters. This weekend last year, Focus was the top film, but Deadpool will likely beat it by $10 million over the weekend. It should be a relatively good week for 2016.
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February 25th, 2016
Deadpool remained in first place with $85.0 million in 74 markets over the weekend for totals of $256.3 million internationally and $493.2 million worldwide. The film had a trio of openings in major markets. This includes South Korea where it earned $7.36 million on 1,035 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $11.58 million. This is the biggest opening for a 18+ film, which is the South Korean equivalent of an R-rating. The film also opened in first place in Spain with $3.86 million on 319 screens, but had to settle for second place in Italy with $3.24 million on 368. Even if the film doesn't earn another dollar, its return on investment would be well over 100%.
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February 24th, 2016
The Mermaid led the way as far as limited releases were concerned with $985,000 in 35 theaters for an average of $28,144. The film has broken records in China, which we will talk about more tomorrow with the international top five. The Embrace of the Serpent was next with an average of $16,985 in three theaters over the weekend, while it earned an average of $20,721 during its five-day opening. The only other film in the $10,000 club was Deadpool with an average of $15,172. On a related note, Warner Bros. has announced an R-rated Blu-ray for Batman v. Superman. The is the wrong lesson to learn from the success of Deadpool.
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February 23rd, 2016
Deadpool held onto first place with $56.47 million over the weekend, while the best new release, Risen, was well back in third place with $11.80 million. It's not surprising the overall box office fell this weekend when compared to the last weekend. The overall box office fell 41% to $142 million, which is barely more than what Deadpool alone earned last weekend. This was still 19% more than this weekend last year, when Fifty Shades of Grey fell 74%. 2016's year-to-date lead roughly doubled to 3.5% at $1.63 billion to $1.57 billion.
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February 21st, 2016
After a $132 million opening, Deadpool wasn’t under much threat at the top of the chart this weekend, so a fairly sharp 58% decline to $55 million this weekend still leaves it dominant in movie theaters. That softness might be a slight concern going forwards, but for now Fox is reveling in having a February hit that has already grossed close to $500 million worldwide (Sunday’s official estimate is $491.9 million), and having Kung Fu Panda 3 hold on to second place with $12.5 million in its fourth weekend for a domestic total of $117 million. That left the three new wide releases fighting for places lower down the chart, although their performance was by no means all doom and gloom.
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February 20th, 2016
Deadpool landed on the low end of expectations on Friday with $16.23 million. This puts it on pace to reach $56 million over the weekend, which is way more than the three new wide releases will earn. It also keeps the film on pace for more than $300 million domestically. Had it cost the usual $150 million to $200 million for a comic book movie, it still would have broken even.
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February 19th, 2016
The Witch had the fastest start on Thursday, with $630,000 from preview shows. This is almost identical to what Krampus earned late last year and that film earned $16 million during its opening weekend. Granted, Krampus was the only wide release that weekend and didn’t have to deal with any film as big as Deadpool. That said, this is still a good result for the film and it suggests it will top predictions, especially if moviegoers like it as much as critics did. Additionally, A24 said the advertising budget was “nominal” and that it was focused on the planned VOD / home market release in three months. It could break even by this time next week.
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February 19th, 2016
There are three wide releases next week, but Gods of Egypt is the overwhelming favorite. ... Well, to be more accurate, Deadpool is the overwhelming favorite, but Gods of Egypt should be the biggest hit of the three new releases. Therefore, it is the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Gods of Egypt.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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February 19th, 2016
The box office doesn't look good this week, not when compared to last weekend. Last weekend Deadpool broke many records, from biggest February weekend, to more obscure records like biggest R-rated super hero movie. Worse still, there are three wide releases this weekend, but combined they still won't match Deadpool's sophomore stint. They won't even come close. Race and Risen should be in a close race for third place, while The Witch will likely just finish in the top five. This weekend last year, Fifty Shades of Grey remained in first place, despite dropping 74% to $22.26 million. Deadpool should crush that number. However, last year, there were also 6 movies that earned $10 million or more. This year, there might be only be two $10 million movies.
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February 18th, 2016
Deadpool opened in first place on the international chart, but it was surprisingly close. The film earned $125.0 million in 61 markets, which is a little lower than its domestic numbers, but its worldwide opening of $257.4 million is fantastic, especially for a film that cost $58 million to make. Its biggest opening came from the U.K., where it earned $20.52 million in 543 theaters. It also earned more than $10 million in Russia ($12.11 million in 1119 theaters) and in Australia ($10.87 million in 393). The film is already playing in most major international markets, but even if it just matches its opening weekend during the rest of its run, it will earn near enough a $100 million profit margin. There will be a sequel, but there may also be several copycat films as well .
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February 18th, 2016
The winners of our You're Dead to Me contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Deadpool opening weekend were...
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February 18th, 2016
Deadpool had the best theater average for the entire year with an average of $37,222. Granted, it is still early and there's no way this record will last till June, but it is still an incredible start. On the downside, there was no other film in the $10,000 club.
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February 17th, 2016
Most people thought Deadpool would be a big hit over the weekend. I didn't see a single prediction that said it would be this big. It earned $132.43 million over the three-day weekend, which is more than enough to cover its entire production budget and a healthy chunk of its advertising budget. ... Or at least its initial advertising budget. Needless to say, there is already a sequel in the works. How to be Single had a very solid opening, while Zoolander 2 will need to become a hit on the home market in order to break even. The overall box office rose 150% from last weekend to $239 million over three days. Wow. This weekend last year, Fifty Shades of Grey debuted. Deadpool made almost as much in the four days it was in theaters than Fifty Shades of Grey made in total. It goes without saying that 2016 won the year-over-year comparison. Its 11% difference is impressive. Year-to-date, 2016 has earned $1.44 billion, which is 1.9% more than 2015's running tally at the same stage.
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February 14th, 2016
This weekend last year, Fifty Shades of Grey broke one of the longest-standing records in the business by posting a $85.2 million opening weekend, besting the record for biggest weekend in February that had been held by The Passion of the Christ since 2004. Fifty Shades and, in 2014, The LEGO Movie dispelled the myth that big movies couldn’t open in February, and this year Deadpool is single-handedly making President’s Day weekend look like a Summer holiday weekend with an opening projected by Fox at $135 million for the Friday–Sunday period and $150 million over four days.
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February 13th, 2016
Sometimes a movie opens and it takes a while to figure out if it was a financial success or not. Deadpool is not one of those movies. Not only did its previews break a couple of records, it crushed a few more on Friday. Its opening day haul of $47.5 million is a new record for the biggest day in February, topping Fifty Shades of Grey by just over $10 million. It is also the biggest opening day for an R-rated film, topping The Maxtrix Reloaded for that record. It likely won’t have as strong legs as that film, despite its reviews, because the Fanboy Effect is strong with this movie. That said, the film cost just $58 million to make, so unless it cost more than that to advertise, it will break even just on its domestic box office.
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February 12th, 2016
Deadpool set two records for biggest February previews and biggest previews for an R-rated film with $12.7 million. ... I think it is safe to assume Deadpool 2 is on its way. The studio was expecting between $60 million and $65 million over the four-day weekend, but studios tend to downplay expectations so they can claim victory, even if the film is a little weaker than anticipated. With the record previews, I think it is safe to say it will top those expectations and even our $75 million prediction seems low.
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February 11th, 2016
It's Valentine's Day weekend and Presidents Day long weekend, so the box office should be very robust, at least compared to last weekend. Deadpool has the best reviews and the best buzz and should have no trouble earning first place at the box office. Zoolander 2 is earning weak reviews, but nostalgia could help during its opening weekend. Finally there's How to be Single, which is a Romantic Comedy. Any romantic film should do well on Valentine's Day, even one earning mixed reviews. This weekend last year, Fifty Shades of Grey came out, which is a movie my mind keeps trying to forget happened. It earned just over $85 million during its opening weekend, but less than that during the rest of its run. Deadpool won't open as fast, but it very likely won't collapse next weekend either. 2016 will lose in the year-over-year comparison in the short run, but perhaps by Monday, the tide will turn.
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February 9th, 2016
The winners of our Seize Your Prizes contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Hail, Caesar! opening weekend were...
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February 8th, 2016
Super Bowl weekend was not a good weekend at the box office. The competition usually takes its toll at the box office, but this year it was particularly bad. Kung Fu Panda 3 led the way with just $21.24 million, while Hail, Caesar! was the only other film to earn more than $10 million. In fact, the weekend was so bad that Star Wars: The Force Awakens remained in third place during its eighth weekend of release. The overall box office took a massive hit, down 31% to just $95 million. This was 37% lower than the same weekend last year, but miraculously, 2016 maintained its lead over 2015, by the tiniest of margins, $1.34 billion to $1.33 billion. With a difference of 0.5% or $6 million, the lead will likely disappear during the week, but 2016 should get it back when Deadpool debuts this Friday.
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February 5th, 2016
Next week, there are three wide releases, but only one of them truly matters: Deadpool. The rare R-rated Super Hero movie looks to become the first of that subgenre to earn $100 million at the box office. The big question is if it can turn its Intenet buzz into real buzz. I'm cautiously optimistic. Even its low-end expectations will very likely put it in first place next weekend. Because of that, it is the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Deadpool.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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February 1st, 2016
As expected, January was dominated by holdovers with Star Wars: The Force Awakens and The Revenant leading the way. That's not to say there were no new releases that did well, as Ride Along 2 and Kung Fu Panda 3 were hits with moviegoers. Looking forward, there is only one film that looks like a sure hit, Deadpool. There's a slim chance it could be a surprise $200 million hit. There's a much better chance it will be the only $100 million hit. Conversely, last February started with a $100 million hit coming out, The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water, while there were two other $100 million movies to come out that month, Fifty Shades of Grey and Kingsman: The Secret Service. Looks like 2016 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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