January 31st, 2019
Glass remained in first place with $23.6 million in 55 markets for a two-week total of $89.1 million. It has no new markets this past weekend. In fact, it only has one major market left in its run, China. The film’s biggest market was the U.K. where it remained in first place with $2.55 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $9.06 million. In Russia, t fell 60% to just $2.08 million on 1,381 over the weekend for a two-week total of $8.68 million. The film opened faster than Split did, but it has shorter legs, so it may or may not overtake its predecessor in the end.
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December 18th, 2018
The weekend went according to predictions, more or less. Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse was the biggest surprise and it beat our prediction by barely more than $1 million at $35.36 million. The Mule was a distant second place with $17.51 million, but this is still a good result for its production budget / target demographic. On the other hand, Mortal Engines bombed. There’s no polite way to describe this result. The overall box office rose by 37% from last weekend, hitting $115 million. Unfortunately, this weekend last year, Star Wars: The Last Jedi opened with nearly double that by itself. 2018 was off by 58% when compared to last year. That would be a terrible result, even if there were a misalignment in holidays. Fortunately, 2018 still has a huge lead over 2017, up by 9.3% or $930 million at $10.96 billion to $10.03 billion and even if 2018 loses by this amount for the next two weeks, it will still end the year with a massive lead over 2018.
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December 15th, 2018
Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse debuted with $12.6 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $35.5 million over the full weekend, at least according to Sony. It will get a tiny boost on Sunday, because about 5% of school kids start their winter holidays on Monday. It will get a larger boost from its reviews, which remain Oscar-worthy. And this is not a case of the critics loving it and the audiences being more ambivalent, as the film earned an A plus from CinemaScore and a five-star rating from PostTrak. If the film does match Sony’s estimates, then it will be a little better than our prediction. More importantly, if its word-of-mouth boosts its legs, it could earn more than $200 million domestically. That’s asking a lot, but it is a possibility. It is certainly something to keep our eyes on.
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December 13th, 2018
After two weeks with no new releases in the top five, we have three new films vying for a position there. This includes Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse, which is all but guaranteed a spot in the top five. The Mule was thought to be an Awards Season contender, but its reviews are disappointing, given those high hopes. Finally there’s Mortal Engines, a film that cost $100 million to make and will likely barely earn a spot in the top five. This weekend last year, Star Wars: The Last Jedi opened with $220.01 million. That’s more than the entire box office will earn this year. This could be more than all three wide releases earn in total. Fortunately, 2018 has a $1 billion lead over 2017, so three weeks of bad losses won’t change that.
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December 1st, 2018
November turned out to be a really, really good month. I thought 2018’s lead over 2017 would shrink, potentially by $200 million to $300 million. However, the lead actually managed to grow a little bit, thanks to hits like Ralph Breaks the Internet, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, and Bohemian Rhapsody. December has an equal number of potential hits, led by Mary Poppins Returns, which some think will top $300 million. Additionally, Spider-man Into the Spider-Verse, Aquaman, Bumblebee, and Holmes and Watson all have a realistic shot at $100 million or more. On the other hand, last December was stronger, at least on top. The Last Jedi earned more than $500 million just during December, which is more than any December release this year will earn in total. It could be more than the top two films earn in total. 2018 will win the in year-over-year competition; however, its lead won’t be as large as it is at the start of the month.
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November 19th, 2018
It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases and franchise box sets as well. Unfortunately, 2018 has not been a good year for blockbusters for any studio not named Disney. In order to be on this list, a film has to be a major release, earn critical praise, and be on out DVD / Blu-ray and that’s a really short list this year. For example, Universal is the second best studio this year in terms of total domestic box office, but they’ve only released one film that has earned $100 million and overwhelmingly positive reviews. That film, Halloween doesn’t come out on DVD / Blu-ray till January. Most of the rest of the big six are lucky to have more than one entry on this week’s list.
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November 19th, 2018
Action comedy starring Ryan Reynolds opens December 12 ... Full Movie Details.
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August 20th, 2018
It’s a good week on the home market as we not only have a monster hit that is worth being a Pick of the Week contender, Deadpool 2, we have a wide selection of other contenders. This includes a limited release, First Reformed; an Anime title,Sakura Quest: Part Two; as well as a TV on DVD release, Ash vs. Evil Dead: Season Three. In the end, I went with Ash vs. Evil Dead: Season Three, but it was a close race.
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August 8th, 2018
It is a deceptively busy week on the home market, and not in a good way. There’s no one big release, at least not on DVD / Blu-ray, but there’s a sea of mediocrity this week. I’m not talking about quality here, but sales rank. There are a lot of films that wouldn’t even be filler during a normal week, but this week are selling well enough to be mentioned. There are several that are worth picking up, including limited releases like Bye Bye Germany and Revenge, classics like The Changeling, and even some Anime titles like Big Fish & Begonia or Tsuredure Children. Deadpool 2 is by far the biggest release of the week and I suspect the Blu-ray will be the Pick of the Week when it comes out, but I don’t want to give it that title until than. As a result, there’s no real winner this week. There were a lot that came close.
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June 26th, 2018
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom beat expectations with $148.02 million over the weekend, but it wasn’t the only monster hit in theaters. Incredibles 2 added $80.35 million during its second weekend of release, which helped the overall box office become the biggest June weekend of all time. The overall box office rose just 2.3%, but that was enough to break the record with $277 million. This is also 98% higher than the same weekend last year. 2018 has had a string of hits that have dominated their 2017 counterparts, even if they missed expectations, so it is no surprise that 2018 has a lead over 2017 in the year-over-year comparison. However, that lead is surprisingly larger. It has grown to 9.1% or $490 million at $5.85 billion to $5.36 billion. No year has started as fast as 2018 has, and even its estimated ticket sales are the best in the 2010s.
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June 24th, 2018
Sequels usually start faster but fall quicker, when compared to their predecessor. However, no one expected Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom to follow suit. In fact, many thought it would collapse. That wasn’t the case, as Fallen Kingdom opened with $150 million over the weekend. Granted, this is nearly 30% lower than Jurassic World’s opening weekend, but it could have been much worse. On the downside, its reviews are almost exactly 50% positive, which suggests weak legs. It did earn an A minus from CinemaScore, so audiences did like the film more than critics did, so we have mixed signals about what the movie will do going forward. Internationally, the film added $106.7 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $561.5 million. This includes a $12.3 million debut in Mexico.
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June 21st, 2018
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom is the only wide release of the week and it was expected to dominate the box office. That was until Incredibles 2 broke records last weekend. Furthermore, Fallen Kingdom’s reviews have fallen below the overall positive level. Now there might be a race at the box office, at least on the daily charts. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, Transformers: The Last Knight missed expectations with just $45 million over the weekend and $70 million in five days. Fallen Kingdom had better earn $45 million on Friday alone, or it is in serious trouble.
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June 19th, 2018
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom remained in first place with $173.6 million in 51 markets for a two-week total of $370.0 million worldwide. It opened in first place in China with $111.31 million over the weekend, for a total opening of $113.42 million. This is better than the $100.10 million opening Jurassic World managed in that market. While this is good news, there are some issues. The film suffered an average of 60% decline in holdover markets. This includes a 63% decline in South Korea ($5.44 million on 1,230 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $37.74 million.) and in Russia ($2.78 million on 1,541 screens for a running tally of $15.16 million there.) It did hold on better in the United Kingdom, down 51% to $9.38 million in 656 theaters for a total of $33.75 million so far. The film has yet to open in Australia, Brazil, and Mexico, where it opens this weekend. Meanwhile, the film doesn’t open in Japan till next month.
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June 18th, 2018
Incredibles 2 became the first potential monster hit since Infinity War to beat tracking numbers, opening with a mind-numbing $182.69 million. It is hard to describe how amazing this opening is. It has rewritten the record book when it comes to animated films and it gives Disney the top three openings of 2018 and four of the top five. This is twice as much as the rest of the box office earned over the entire weekend. There were other new releases this week, with Tag doing fine. Its $14.95 million opening is nothing special, but it should break even sometime on the home market. SuperFly, on the other hand, was a disappointment. The overall box office grew by 126% from last weekend, with Incredibles 2 earning about 50% more than the entire box office pulled in last weekend. The film was just shy of the same weekend last year, while the overall box office rose by 43%. Year-to-date, 2018 continues to have a lead over 2017, and it has grown to a commanding lead of 6.6% or $340 million at $5.44 billion to $5.10 billion. Granted, we are barely halfway through the year, but 2018 is in a great position to break the all-time yearly box office record.
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June 17th, 2018
Incredibles 2 was widely expected to dominate the box office over the weekend, but after the two previous potential monster hits missed high expectations, I thought it was wise to be a little more pessimistic. I was wrong. Incredibles 2 opened with an estimated $180 million. This is not only the best opening for a Pixar film, and an animated film in general, it is the 8th biggest opening weekend of all time. (It could slip a little in tomorrow’s final numbers, putting it in 9th place behind Captain America: Civil War.) The film is already the 50th biggest animated hit of all time and unless its legs are shorter than expected, it will quickly race to the top of that chart. Speaking of legs, Incredibles 2 has the best reviews in the top ten and earned a stunning A plus from CinemaScore. To be frank, perhaps stunning isn’t the right word. Perhaps “expected” is a better term, as Pixar has earned 7 A plus ratings out of its 20 films and has never once slipped below an A minus. Internationally, the film opened in second place with $51.5 million in 25 markets and earned a Pixar-best opening in Mexico ($12.3 million) and Argentina ($3.0 million). In fact, it was outstanding in all of Latin America. It is also the fasting opening Pixar film in Australia with $7.7 million, while it managed the studio’s second biggest opening in Russia with $5.4 million. Granted, the film is not doing as well internationally as it is domestically; however, it is still on pace for $1 billion worldwide, so there’s no way the studio isn’t celebrating this opening.
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June 16th, 2018
Incredibles 2 opened with $71.55 million on Friday. To put this in perspective, it is already the biggest digital animation of 2018 and even if it doesn’t sell a single ticket on Saturday and Sunday, this would still be the fifth biggest opening weekend for a Pixar film and the 13th biggest opening for an animated film. Assuming its 93% positive reviews and its A plus from CinemaScore help its legs, it could top Solo: A Star Wars Story’s running tally by the end of the weekend. On the other hand, an opening weekend of $180 million seems like a solid goal after an opening day like this and that will put it on pace for over $500 million domestically.
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June 14th, 2018
Incredibles 2 leads a group of three wide releases coming out in theaters this week. It should open with more than the rest of the box office combined. Tag is a film that many will find a little unbelievable, even though it is based on real-life events. Its reviews suggest a moderate opening, but nothing too special. The buzz surrounding SuperFly is really quiet, but it is being aimed at its target audience in a much more focused ad campaign, which makes judging said campaign’s effectiveness more difficult. Ocean’s 8 should have no trouble earning second place, while it could avoid falling 50%. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, Cars 3 opened with $53.69 million, while Wonder Woman added $41.27 million over the same weekend. I would be shocked if Incredibles 2 doesn’t open with more than those two films earned combined. 2018 should win in the year-over-year comparison with relative ease.
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June 12th, 2018
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom opened in first place on the international chart with $150.9 million in 48 markets. The film’s biggest market was South Korea, where it set the opening day record with $9.7 million, but its overall weekend was not quite as impressive, as it earned $15.17 million for a total opening of $26.57 million. That three-day total is better than Jurassic World, but its a drop from the opening day to its weekend total. This could be a sign of weak word-of-mouth and that’s troubling as its reviews have slipped below the overall positive level. The film also cracked $10 million in both the U.K. ($19.20 million in 662 theaters) and in France ($10.91 million in 700), but this is lower than the predecessor managed in both those markets. Overall, the film will have little trouble earning $1 billion worldwide, but it very likely won’t live up to Jurassic World.
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June 12th, 2018
The weekend was very kind to Ocean’s 8, as it opened with $41.61 million. This is not only the top result this weekend, it is the best opening weekend in the franchise. Hereditary also opened on the high end of expectations, leaving just Hotel Artemis as the only disappointment of the weekend. Overall, the box office rose 13% from last weekend to $120 million. More importantly, this was 17% lower than the same weekend last year. That said, it could have been worse and 2018 still has a 5.1% / $250 million lead over 2017 at $5.11 billion to $4.86 billion.
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June 10th, 2018
Ocean’s 8 matched expectations with $41.5 million over the weekend. If it can maintain this figure, then it will open in the $10,000 club, while even if its final numbers slips a little, it still would be on pace for $100 million domestically. Its reviews have settled to 67% positive, and it managed an acceptable B plus from CinemaScore, so its legs should be average. Fortunately, with a start like this, it only needs average legs to break even early in its home market run.
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June 7th, 2018
Ocean’s 8 leads a trio of new releases this week and it might be the only one to reach the top five. It is certainly the only one competing for first place. Hereditary is earning amazing reviews, but it is an art house horror movie and those tend to struggle at the box office. Finally there’s Hotel Artemis, which is earning the quietest buzz of the three releases. Solo: A Star Wars Story and Deadpool 2 should remain strong helping the overall box office. However, while this year’s new releases are better than last year’s new releases, with Wonder Woman’s sophomore stint, 2018 is going to suffer another loss. Next week will be better.
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June 5th, 2018
Deadpool 2 returned to first place with $41.6 million in 79 markets for totals of $344.00 million internationally and $598.51 million worldwide. It opened in first place in Japan with $5.5 million, which is close to 30% better than the original managed in its opening there.
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June 4th, 2018
The overall weekend went about as well as expected. Unfortunately, that’s not good news. Solo: A Star Wars Story fell about as much as the average sophomore blockbuster film falls during a post-holiday weekend, earning first place with $29.40 million, while Deadpool 2 was the only other film to earn more than $20 million, landing in second with $23.18 million. The biggest new release of the week was Adrift with $11.60 million. The overall box office fell 42% from last weekend to just $106 million. To put this into perspective, this weekend last year, Wonder Woman opened with $103 million. That one movie made almost as much as the entire box office made this year. The year-over-year decline was 43%. Fortunately, 2018 is still ahead of 2017 by a sizable amount at 6.8% or $310 million at $4.94 billion to $4.63 billion and in a couple of weeks, 2018 should start winning again in the year-over-year comparison.
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June 3rd, 2018
We predicted Solo: A Star Wars Story would earn about $30 million during its second weekend of release and it earned $29.3 million over the weekend. I’m calling that a victory. It did fall 65%, but this is a standard decline for a tentpole release after a holiday weekend. The film has $148.89 million after 10 days of release and is on pace to top $200 million domestically. Internationally it has $115.3 million, including $30.3 million this past weekend. It doesn’t open in Japan until the end of June, but once it does, it should reach $400 million worldwide. Had the film not needed extensive reshoots, this would have been enough to break even, eventually.
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June 2nd, 2018
As expected, Solo: A Star Wars Story earned top spot on Friday with $8.15 million. We predicted it would earn about $30 million and it looks like that’s the case, although it’s on track for the lower end of that range, with a $29 million sophomore stint. If it recovers next weekend, then it will remain on pace for $200 million domestically. However, getting to that milestone is more about saving face than breaking even at this point. Even if the film’s reviews help it become a hit on the home market, it’s not going to break even any time soon. Fortunately, The Last Jedi made enough profits that Disney will still be happy with the overall results of the franchise. Plus there’s always merchandising, something the Star Wars films helped perfect.
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May 31st, 2018
While there are three wide releases coming out this week, Solo: A Star Wars Story should have no trouble remaining in top spot. In fact, Adrift is the only wide release that has a better than 50/50 shot at $10 million over the weekend. Action Point may or may not reach the top five. Meanwhile, there are some who think Upgrade will miss the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Wonder Woman opened with more than $100 million. The top ten won’t get there this year. 2018 is going to get crushed in the year-over-year competition.
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May 30th, 2018
Solo: A Star Wars Story earned first place on the international chart with $65.0 million in 54 markets; however, this is about half what the film needed to make to be a undisputed financial success. The film only cracked $10 million in one market, the U.K. where it made $10.3 million. However, China was close behind with $9.71 million over the weekend and $9.84 million including previews.
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May 30th, 2018
Memorial Day long weekend is off its peak and its been a while since it was breaking records regularly. (Half of the top ten three-day and four-day records are a decade old or older.) That didn’t change this year, as Solo: A Star Wars Story missed expectations with $84.42 million / $103.02 million during its opening weekend. You can’t even claim it missed expectations because Deadpool 2 stole its thunder, as that film also fell faster than anticipated. Overall, the box office fell 13% from last weekend down to $182 million. This is still 29% higher than the same three-day weekend last year. If you include Monday, the weekend pulled in $226 million, which is about 27% higher than last year. Year-to-date, 2018 has a 8.3% / $370 million lead over 2017 at $4.79 billion to $4.42 billion. That lead will shrink in the next couple of weeks, but overall, 2018 is looking really healthy.
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May 27th, 2018
Solo: A Star Wars Story opened with an estimated $83 million / $101 million over the three-day / four-day weekend. It had the best Memorial Day long weekend since 2014, when X-Men: Days of Future Past opened with $111 million over four days. In fact, this result is the fourth best Memorial Day long weekend opening in the past decade. That said, it was much lower than expected and some are calling it a box office failure. That’s complicated. The film was originally going to cost $150 million to make, making it the cheapest installment in the new Star Wars franchise. However, they reportedly had to reshoot 70% of the movie, which lifted the price to $250 million. The box office needed to break even during the film’s initial push into the home market rose from about $500 million to $650 million. And with an initial international debut of $65.0 million in 54 markets, this film is just not going to get there. The unending talk of behind-the-scenes trouble seems to have hurt the film’s box office chances and even its good reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore won’t be enough to turn things around. That said, it is far from a complete disaster and the franchise will continue, although it might be wise for Disney to not release so many installments in the franchise so quickly. Three in 18 months is a bit too much. This isn’t the MCU.
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May 26th, 2018
Historically, Memorial Day long weekend has been a major weekend at the box office; however, the past few years the weekend has struggled somewhat. If you look at the three-day and four-day records, more than half of the top ten happened a decade ago or earlier. So it is not a shock that Solo: A Star Wars Story didn’t break records on Friday by earning $35.63 million. This is slightly better than X-Men: Days of Future Past, meaning Solo has the best opening Friday for Memorial Day weekend in five years. Depending on its legs, it could earn a spot in the top five over the full weekend. Its reviews have settled on a 71% positive, which is good, but not great, while it managed an A minus from CinemaScore. The film should earn $90 million / $110 million over the weekend, which is still an okay start.
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May 24th, 2018
Memorial Day long weekend is usually a great weekend to open a big release. However, this year, Solo: A Star Wars Story is the wide release of the weekend. It will obviously open in first place, but how will it compare to the recent releases in the Star Wars franchise? Deadpool 2 will have no trouble earning second place and could by the end of the weekend be in the black. (It depends heavily on how much it cost to advertise, but I think its combined budget is around $200 million.) The only other film expected to make a dent at the box office is Avengers: Infinity War, which has already earned $600 million domestically. This weekend last year, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales opened in first place with $62.98 million / $78.48 million. There are some who think Solo will double that. I’m not that bullish, but I do think Solo will lead 2018 to an easy win in the year-over-year competition.
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May 23rd, 2018
The re-release of 2001: A Space Odyssey topped the theater average chart by a huge margin earning just over $200,000 in four theaters for an average of $50,690. The overall box office leader, Deadpool 2, was next with an average of $28,859 in over 4,000 theaters. First Reformed was right behind with an average of $24,391 in just 4 theaters.
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May 23rd, 2018
Deadpool 2 dominated the international box office with $174.9 million on 25,091 screens in 82 markets, for a worldwide opening of $300.4 million. The studio’s share of this opening weekend is close to $140 million, which is significantly more than the film’s $110 million production budget. The film’s biggest market was the U.K., where it earned $17.48 million in 636 theaters. In South Korea, the film earned $11.84 million on 1,576 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $16.73 million. Russia wasn’t far behind, with $11.61 million on 1,477 and it cracked $10 million in Australia, if you include previews, as it pulled in $9.48 million on 602 screens for a total opening of $11.45 million. The film has yet to open in Japan, but there’s no rational way this film won’t break even before it reaches the home market.
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May 22nd, 2018
Deadpool 2 didn’t live up to expectations at the box office, but you can’t really complain about a $125.51 million opening weekend. The other new releases were Book Club, which did acceptable business, while the less said about Show Dogs’ debut the better. Overall, the box office rose 51% from last weekend earning $209 million. This is 69% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2018 is now ahead of 2017 by a margin of $290 million or 7.0% at $4.49 billion to $4.20 billion. Because Infinity War opened a week earlier than usual, it has been hard to compare the overall box office, but now it is safe to say 2018 has a sizable lead over 2017, one that should grow next weekend as well.
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May 20th, 2018
Deadpool 2 broke records during its previews and stumbled a little on Friday, before finishing the weekend with an estimated $125 million. That’s still a fantastic result, more than the $110 million it reportedly cost to make, and more than the total box office earned this weekend last year. That said, it is way below the $150 million many thought it would earn after the preview numbers were announced. This isn’t as good as Deadpool’s opening weekend; however, that film benefited from Valentine’s day landing on Sunday, while this film will get some help next weekend, as it is Memorial Day long weekend. Furthermore, both films earned nearly identical reviews and both films earned an A from CinemaScore, so this film's legs should be decent. We will have a better idea where it will end up next weekend.
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May 19th, 2018
Deadpool 2 dominated the box office chart on Friday earning $53.3 million. However this is weaker than expected after it broke the record for previews by an R-rated film. After the film crushed that record, it looked like it would earn $150 million during its opening weekend. However, after earning $53.3 million on Friday, it looks like it won’t even match the original Deadpool’s opening weekend haul of $132.43 million. Granted, it should be close with $132 million and this is still a fantastic start, but it could be a bad omen for its legs. On the other hand, the film’s reviews are more than 80% positive and it earned a solid A from CinemaScore. We won’t know if the reviews and word-of-mouth will overtake the Fanboy Effect until the weekend estimates arrive tomorrow helping the film top its predecessor, but it is usually safe to bet on the Fanboy Effect.
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May 18th, 2018
Deadpool 2 got off to a record-breaking start on Thursday earning $18.6 million during its previews. This is the best previews for an R-rated film, topping It’s previous record of $13.5 million by a truly massive margin. The film’s reviews are excellent for a blockbuster and the film is now on track for $150 million, which was the very high end of expectations.
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May 18th, 2018
Action movie starring Ryan Reynolds opens today ... Full Movie Details.
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May 17th, 2018
May gets its first monster hit, as Deadpool 2 debuts in theaters this weekend. The film is earning impressive reviews and was widely expected to top the original's opening weekend. Neither of the two other new releases are expected to compete for first place, or even second place, as Avengers: Infinity War has that locked down. Book Club should open in third place with more than $10 million, but that’s not a guarantee. Meanwhile, Show Dogs’ buzz is so quiet that I’m have trouble coming up with a prediction. This weekend last year, Alien: Covenant opened in first place, but with only $36.16 million. If Deadpool 2 doesn’t top that opening night, then I will be shocked. In fact, Deadpool 2 should earn more by itself than the total box office from this weekend last year.
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May 1st, 2018
April was all about Avengers: Infinity War, which earned about as much during its opening weekend as the next two biggest films, A Quiet Place and Rampage, will earn in total. However, moving Infinity War to April has left a big gap for the first two weeks of May. It isn’t until Deadpool 2 debuts that we have a potential $100 million movie, while the week after Solo: A Star Wars Story closes the month on a strong note. Fortunately, both of those films are expected to earn more than $100 million during their opening weekends alone and combined could earn over $700 million domestically. Last May, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 helped the month get off to a fast start, but it was the only monster hit of the month. Infinity War opening a week early will mean the month will start slower, in terms of new releases, but Infinity War’s record-breaking debut should help 2018 come out ahead in the end.
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