May 7th, 2020
For the third week in a row, the top five films on the DEG Watched at Home Chart remain the same, although there are changes in the order from last week. Bad Boys for Life remained in first place. Meanwhile, Sony remained the only studio with more than one entry in the in the top five and tied with Disney / Fox with five in the top twenty.
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March 20th, 2020
The COVID-19 outbreak has hit all 50 states and in many of them it is a state of emergency. Mass theater closings hasn’t stopped all limited releases, but I assume Video on Demand will generate a lot more business this weekend. Because of the COVID-19 outbreak, there are so few theatrical releases that, starting this week, I am including made-for-VOD and streaming releases, including some original TV shows. We are also going to include theatrical releases that were fast-tracked to VOD this week. If you don't want to / can't hit theaters this week (and the overwhelming advice coming from the professionals is not to), you can watch some big movies early on the home market, including The Invisible Man, Onward, and others. Stay safe!
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February 27th, 2020
It’s a strong, but shallow, week on the home market. There are only eight releases in the main list and a couple of them wouldn’t normally make the cut. However, nearly all of them are worth picking up and several were close to Pick of the Week contenders. That said, Knives Out was a clear choice for Pick of the Week. I will likely also be buying Food Wars, Three Fantastic Journeys by Karel Zeman, and others, but Knives Out is way ahead of the competition.
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February 25th, 2020
The first Frozen was a smash hit breaking records for the biggest global animated hit of all time. Frozen II was inevitable, but most people thought it wouldn’t quite live up to its predecessor at the box office. It smashed the record by over $150 million. Is it also better? Or does the film not live up to the hype?
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January 22nd, 2020
Bad Boys for Life took over top spot with $37.50 million on 8,945 screens in 54 international markets over the three-day weekend and $38.96 million including previews and non-standard days, as Sony puts it. The film’s biggest market was arguably Germany where it earned $4.71 million on 661 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.14 million. However, the film made more money over the three-day weekend in the U.K., $4.93 million in 535 theaters, to be more precise. The film earned strong openings in Australia with $3.97 million on 259 and in Mexico with $3.88 million on 2,242 screens.
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January 17th, 2020
It’s yet another slow week for limited releases. That’s not to say there are no films worth checking out. Weathering With You is earning outstanding reviews and will be the biggest hit opening this week. Extracurricular and Feedback are also worth checking out, but they will find audiences on VOD, not in theaters.
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January 15th, 2020
As previously reported, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker entered the billion dollar club on Tuesday. Over the weekend, it earned $24.2 million in 55 markets for totals, as of the end of the weekend, of $511.4 million internationally and $989.6 million worldwide. It struggled in South Korea, earning second place with $2.16 million on 948 screens over the three-day weekend for a total opening of $3.09 million. I’ll talk about the film that beat it below. Rise of Skywalker did relatively better in the Philippines with an opening of $1.0 million over the weekend, and $3.0 million including previews.
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January 13th, 2020
The Oscar nominations were announced on Monday, and the results were... well, there were some puzzling results. Joker led the way with eleven nominations. ... A film with 69% positive reviews earned the most nominations. It’s not the worst-reviewed movie to earn a Best Picture Nomination—after all, Bohemian Rhapsody was nominated just last year. However, this film is arguably the worst-reviewed movie to ever earn the most nominations in a single year.
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January 8th, 2020
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker added $50.5 million in 53 markets to its totals, which now sit at $468.0 million internationally and $918.8 million worldwide. The film will hit $1 billion, likely by the end of the weekend, especially if it is a big hit when it opens in its last two markets, South Korea and the Philippines. While the film won’t match initial expectations, it will be fantastically profitable.
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January 7th, 2020
2020 got off to a great start with The Grudge opening better than expected, while most of the holdovers also held strong. Granted, it is still a post-holiday weekend and the total box office did fall 28% from last weekend earning $142 million. However, this is 2.4% higher than the first weekend of last year and that’s a much more important figure. It’s way too early for the year-to-date comparisons to matter, but 2020 did get off to a faster start than 2019 did and has a 7.7% / $17 million lead at $231 million to $215 million. Again, it is way too early to make any predictions, but any victory now will make it easier for 2020 to keep pace with last year during the inevitable slow times.
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January 5th, 2020
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker isn’t going to live up to projections based on Friday estimates, but it is still expected to land a little north of weekend predictions with an estimated weekend haul of $33.74 million for a three-week total of $450.80 million. A 53% decline at this time of year isn’t a great result and it is clear the film’s reviews and its mere B plus from CinemaScore are not doing it any favors. That said, it is still one of the biggest hits released in 2019, both domestically and worldwide. Internationally, the film is pulling in $50.5 million in 53 markets for totals of $468.0 million internationally and $918.8 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this weekend, but it debuts in South Korea and the Philippines this coming weekend and that should help it hit $1 billion worldwide.
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January 4th, 2020
It looks like it is going to be a good weekend at the box office, as Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is beating expectations at the box office, and it isn’t the only film to do so. The latest in the Star Wars franchise earned an estimated $11.0 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $37 million over the full weekend. The film needed about $31 million to remain on pace to hit $500 million domestically, so with this result, it is no longer a matter of if it will get there, but how fast it will get there. On the other hand, this is not enough to make a realistic run at The Lion King for second place on the 2019 domestic chart.
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January 2nd, 2020
It is the first weekend of the new year and the only wide release to talk about is a low-budget horror movie, The Grudge, with nearly no buzz and almost no reviews. Unfortunately, it has almost no chance of matching last year’s low-budget horror film, Escape Room. Fortunately, this year’s holdovers, led by Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, will outpace last year’s holdovers giving 2020 its first win during the first weekend of the year.
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January 1st, 2020
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker remained on the top of the international chart with an impressive $94.3 million in 52 markets for totals of $363.0 million internationally and $725.2 million worldwide. It got to $750 million worldwide on Monday. The film has had strong runs in a number of major markets, including the U.K. ($51.4 million); Germany ($44.1 million); France ($34.7 million); Japan ($29.2 million); and Australia ($21.2 million). The film opens in Vietnam this weekend and South Korea next weekend, but that’s the end of its run. It will get to $1 billion worldwide, which is more than enough to ensure a healthy profit, but it is far below initial expectations.
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December 31st, 2019
The last weekend of the year had some good news and some bad news. Unfortunately, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker was part of the later, as it fell 59% to $72.39 million over the weekend. However, this was still a dominate performance at the box office, earning more than the next three films combined. It helped the overall weekend remained strong at $197 million. Granted, this is 20% lower than last weekend, but more importantly, it is 5.0% higher than the same weekend last year. Furthermore, 2019 cut the deficit with 2018 by about $100 million since The Rise of Skywalker came out and now it is fighting with 2016 to be the second biggest year at the box office of all time. It is true that the year is still behind 2018 by a massive 4.5% / $520 million at $11.04 billion to $11.56 billion, but not being able to maintain a record pace for two years in a row is hardly a serious concern. Even if you look at ticket sales and take into account inflation, then 2019 was a reasonably good year, as it isn’t too far behind 2017 and hardly the worst we’ve seen in the past decade. There are reasons to be optimistic going into 2020.
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December 29th, 2019
The weekend isn’t looking good for Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, as it is falling a lot faster than I expected. If estimates hold, it will fall 59% to $72.0 million over the weekend for a running tally of $361.8 million after two weeks of release. However, this is still a massive amount of money. It is already the seventh-biggest hit released in 2019, and is on pace to earn third place on that chart, maybe even second. Internationally, the film added $94.3 million in 52 markets for a running tally of $363.0 million internationally and $724.8 million worldwide. That’s without any earnings from South Korea, where it will debut in a couple of weeks. It should have no trouble getting to $1 billion worldwide by the end of its run, but most were expecting a lot more than that. It is yet another profitable disappoint—and we saw too many of those in 2019.
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December 28th, 2019
The last weekend of the year began on Friday and there’s some good news and some bad news. Bad news, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker fell faster than expected, down 71% from its opening Friday to just $26.23 million. Granted, this was still more than enough to blow past the $300 million mark in just eight days, putting it in a tie for fifth fastest to reach $300 million. The film will bounce back over the rest of the weekend and it is projected to earn $76 million over the three-day weekend for a running tally of $366 million. If it ended there, then the film could still break even, eventually. In reality, the film has two more weeks of no serious competition, so it will have no trouble getting past a couple of more major milestones before it is done it box office run.
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December 27th, 2019
The weekend after Christmas tends to be even bigger at the box office than the weekend before Christmas, as people are no longer rushing around making sure they have their last minute gifts and food for Christmas dinner. That said, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker will likely still fall, as monster blockbusters rarely have extremely long legs. The other sophomore films opened so poorly that I can image theater owners will be pushing them to the smallest screens, perhaps with limited showings. As for the new releases, none of Little Women, Uncut Gems, or Spies in Disguise got off to a great start on Christmas Day, but none of them bombed either. This weekend last year, Aquaman led the way with over $52 million, while the top three earned almost exactly $100 million. This year, The Rise of Skywalker could earn $100 million all by itself. The year will end on a very positive note.
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December 24th, 2019
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker recovered a little bit from Sunday’s estimates to earn $177.38 million for the full weekend. While it is always better to beat estimates, this isn’t a large enough margin to really matter in the long run. Its reviews and its B plus are fine for a blockbuster, but aren’t going to help draw in more moviegoers, unlike The Last Jedi. Internationally, the film made $197.7 million in 52 markets to give it a worldwide opening of $375.1 million. It enjoyed the third-biggest weekend in December, the third-biggest day in December, and it is already the 21st biggest worldwide release in 2019. Granted, most thought it would open faster than this, but the film is, at worst, a profitable disappointment.
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December 22nd, 2019
There are some mixed results on the weekend chart with some films topping expectations, while others are struggling mightily. Fortunately, the former category includes Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, which is topping my prediction, albeit by a very small margin at $175.5 million, well below the $190 million projections based on Friday’s estimates. Yesterday, it looked like Rise of Skywalker would have similar legs to The Last Jedi. Granted, this film’s reviews and its B plus rating from CinemaScore are weaker than the previous film, but this one will have more help with the holidays. Christmas break has begun, so that should have boosted Sunday’s numbers, but sadly, that doesn’t appear to be the case. However, and this is an important point, the film is still doing fantastic business, with the third-biggest December weekend ever, and it should be a monster hit in the end.
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December 21st, 2019
Despite earning weaker-than-expected reviews, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is going to have no trouble topping my prediction for the weekend, as it earned an estimated $90 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $190 million over the full weekend. Granted, not everything is rosy, as the film only managed a B plus from CinemaScore. That’s not fatal, but it certainly won’t help its legs. On the other hand, the lack of direct competition and the Christmas break will certainly help it sell many more tickets over the next two weeks.
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December 19th, 2019
This weekend, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker opens, and it is widely expected to be one of the biggest hits of the year. However, its reviews are merely mixed and this is dragging down expectations. Cats was confusing box office analysts since the first trailer was released and now that its reviews are a mess, things are not looking any better. Finally, Bombshell is expanding wide, but it looks like it won’t be a major factor at the box office this weekend and will have to rely on long legs to carry it to profitability. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, Aquaman earned $67.87 million over the weekend. The Rise of Skywalker should earn more than that during its opening day, helping 2019 end on a wildly successful note.
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December 19th, 2019
Jumanji: The Next Level expanded worldwide this past weekend helping it secure first place with a full haul of $86.96 million, including some previews and weekday numbers, on 40,908 screens in 69 markets for totals of $153.76 million internationally and $213.01 million worldwide. The film’s biggest opening came in the U.K., where it earned first place with $6.97 million on 1,651 screens over the three-day weekend for a total opening of $12.63 million, which is a little better than the previous film earned in that market. Likewise, The Next Level improved on Welcome to the Jungle’s $5.00 million opening in Russia by earning $5.97 million on 2,890 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $9.29 million. Granted, sequels tend to have shorter legs than their predecessors, but a start like this is still great news and keeps $1 billion worldwide as a possibility. I’m not saying it is going to get there; in fact, we really won’t know until we see the film’s box office numbers for the next couple of weeks. I choose to remain cautiously optimistic.
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December 17th, 2019
As expected, Jumanji: The Next Level dominated the competition over the weekend. Fortunately, it did so with a lot more than anticipated, earning $59.25 million. This is more than the rest of the top ten combined. Unfortunately, this happened in part due to the disastrous openings of Black Christmas and Richard Jewell. The overall box office rose dramatically from last weekend earning 31% more at $117 million. More importantly, this was 1.6% higher than the same weekend last year. Granted, that’s a tiny margin, but any win is worth celebrating at this point. Year-to-date, 2019 is still well behind 2018’s pace down 5.7% or $620 million at $10.31 billion to $10.93 billion. That said, if we can chip away at that deficit, then 2019 can at least end on a positive note and save face.
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December 15th, 2019
Jumanji: The Next Level is not only beating predictions, but is also topped projections based on Friday’s estimates. The film’s weekend estimate is $60.1 million, which is easily more than the rest of the top ten combined. It is also 66% higher than the Welcome to the Jungle’s opening weekend, although that film had a Wednesday opening, so it isn’t a fair comparison. Internationally, the film is nearly as impressive, earning $85.7 million on 39,900 screens in 52 markets for totals of $152.5 million internationally and $212.6 million worldwide. This includes a monster opening in the U.K., where it earned $12.6 million over the five-day weekend, including previews. This is 32% ahead of the previous installment in the franchise. Overall, the new film is 33% ahead of Welcome to the Jungle’s performance in the same group of new markets. If you look at is box office so far, add in its solid reviews and the Christmas break and we are looking at a $1 billion worldwide run. Sony had a really bad three-year streak a few years ago, but this is the second year in a row where they have been back in form.
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December 14th, 2019
Jumanji: The Next Level got off to a great start on Friday, earning $19.4 million. Sony is projecting just over $50 million for the weekend after this start, which is well above our $42-million prediction, and in fact on the very high end of range of everyone’s predictions. Furthermore, the film’s reviews remain solid, and, while it doesn’t have a published CinemaScore yet, its word-of-mouth does seem like an asset going forward. Granted, it does have intense competition next weekend, but I have no doubt that Sony is already working on a third installment of the Jumanji reboot.
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December 12th, 2019
Jumanji: The Next Level will have no trouble earning first place and could earn more than Frozen II, Black Christmas, and Richard Jewell will earn combined. The real question is whether or not the overall box office will keep pace with the same weekend last year when Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse debuted with $35.36 million. I really think Jumanji will top that figure while this year will also have marginally better depth helping 2019 earn a much needed win in the year-over-year competition.
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December 12th, 2019
Frozen II again won the race on top of the international box office chart, but it at least faced some competition this week. The film added $90.2 million in 48 markets for totals of $582.1 million internationally and $919.7 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings, but it did earn $800,000 in South Africa, making it the second fastest opening for an animated film in that market, behind only Minions. In other news, the film cracked $100 million in China over the weekend and now sits at $107.06 million in that market, including $9.84 million this past weekend. It took less than three weeks to top the lifetime total of the first Frozen in that market.
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December 11th, 2019
The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. It is still very early in the year and the predictive value of the Golden Globes is a little suspect, but there are still some things to learn here. (This is especially true on the TV end, as there’s talk about how strange the nominations are this year.) Marriage Story led the way with six nominations, just ahead of The Irishman and Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood, both of which picked up five nods.
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December 10th, 2019
As expected, the box office collapsed this week, as it always does in a post-holiday weekend. Despite the best efforts of Frozen II and Knives Out, the overall weekend box office fell 50% to $89 million. This is 5.4% higher than the same weekend last year and that’s the more important figure. Year-to-date, 2019 closed ground with 2018, albeit by a tiny margin and this year is still behind last year by 5.9% or $630 million at $10.16 billion to $10.80 billion. It has been a long time since we’ve seen the box office decline by that high of a percentage in one year; however, 2019 is still on pace to be the second highest grossing year of all time and it still has higher ticket sales than 2017 had at this point, so I think we shouldn’t panic over this.
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December 8th, 2019
Frozen II fell both faster than expected, and faster than projections based on Friday’s estimates. However, the film is still managing an estimated $34.67 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $337.59 million. This is enough to push it ahead of Joker and into seventh place on the yearly chart. If this holds up, then it will have an excellent shot at topping the first Frozen’s domestic total, even without the Christmas break coming up. Internationally, the film pulled in $90.2 million in 48 markets for totals of $582.1 million internationally and $919.7 million worldwide. It had no major market openings this weekend, but it is earning an estimated $800,000 in South Africa, which would make it the second biggest opening for an animated film there, behind only Minions. The film has become the biggest animated film in South Korea with $75.5 million. It as also topped its predecessor in Russia ($23.0 million) and Mexico ($21.1 million) and a lot of smaller markets.
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December 7th, 2019
As expected, Frozen II earned first place on the Friday box office chart. However, the film fell further than anticipated, earning $7.84 million—off 77% from last Friday. That was a holiday, so obviously it will bounce back over the rest of the weekend, but projections have the film earning about $36 million compared to our $38 million prediction. This is close enough that I’m satisfied with the result and it is more than enough to keep it in wide release until after the new year.
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December 5th, 2019
The weekend after Thanksgiving is one of the worst weeks of the year to release a film wide. In fact, many years there are no wide releases. This year, Playmobil gets thrown to the wolves, or to the mercy of Frozen II, to be more specific. I can’t imagine it will survive the competition. In fact, most think the wide expansion of Dark Waters will beat it at the box office and that film isn’t expected to land in the top five. This weekend last year had no wide releases and Frozen II should earn more than last year’s top two films, Ralph Breaks the Internet and The Grinch, earned combined. December should get off to a fast start on the year-over-year competition and hopefully that’s a good omen going forward.
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December 5th, 2019
Frozen II dominated this past weekend’s international box office chart by almost as large a margin as it did last weekend. The Disney sequel earned $163.8 million in 45 markets for totals of $451.0 million internationally and $739.8 million worldwide. This includes a trio of first-place openings in major markets, led by Russia at $13.7 million on 1,682 screens, while it also topped the charts in Italy ($8.6 million including previews) and Australia ($6.6 million). Furthermore, according to Disney, the film is already the highest-grossing animated film of all time in both the Philippines ($12.2 million) and Indonesia ($11.1 million). It has already topped the original in a number of other markets, mostly in Asia, led by China with an impressive running tally of $91.0 million in just two weeks.
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December 4th, 2019
Wide releases thrive over Thanksgiving. Limited releases aren’t so lucky. Frozen II led the way on the theater averages with an average of $19,364. 63 Up opened with $13,956 over the three day weekend and $18,721 over five, while playing in one theater.
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December 2nd, 2019
2019 hasn’t been a great year and has consistently been behind 2018. However, 2018 was the biggest ever year at the box office and 2019 has been in a battle for second place for much of the year. Thanksgiving beat expectations and the overall performances over the Thanksgiving weekend really helped 2019’s chances to secure second place. Frozen II broke records earning first place for its three-day and five-day Thanksgiving weekends. In fact, its three-day weekend haul of $85.98 million would have landed in third place on the all-time five-day chart. Additionally, both new releases, Knives Out and Queen and Slim, topped expectations leading to a robust box office. Granted, the overall box office was a little lower, down 12%, from last weekend at $180 million. This is common for Thanksgiving, as the Wednesday and Thursday holidays are so popular with moviegoers that they reduce the box office potential of the Friday through Sunday weekend. This is 56% higher than the same weekend last year, but this is due to a misalignment in the holidays. This Thanksgiving was 16.5% lower than last year’s Thanksgiving, but the misalignment of the holidays does have an effect there as well, so it isn’t a perfect comparison either. Next weekend will be a lot better when it comes to the year-over-year comparison. Year-to-date, 2019 is still behind 2018 by a large margin, but 2019 was able to close to the gap a bit to 6.0% or $640 million at $10.03 billion to $10.67 billion. Getting that gap lower is the goal for December, as it is virtually impossible that 2019 will catch up completely. I would be really impressed if they can cut that gap in half.
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December 1st, 2019
Frozen II’s weekend haul wasn’t quite up to the level it was during the week, but it was still impressive. In fact, it is matching our prediction nearly perfectly with $85.25 million, giving it $123.75 million over five days and a running tally of $287.57 million. It will break the three-day and the five-day Thanksgiving records, topping the second place film, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, by substantial margins. Frozen II will have no trouble getting to $300 million shortly, while topping $400 million is practically assured at this point. Meanwhile, it is adding $163.8 million in 45 markets internationally for totals of $451.0 million internationally and $738.6 million worldwide. The film had a trio of first-place openings in major markets this past weekend, including Russia with $13.7 million, which Disney is reporting as the best opening for an animated film in that market. In Italy, it earned $7.7 million over the weekend and $8.6 million including previews, which is the best for a Disney animated film. It wasn’t as impressive in Australia with an opening of $6.6 million, but this was still 59% more than the first Frozen opened with in that market. At this point, the film has fully paid for its production budget, and while it likely cost between $150 million and $200 million to advertise, it should last in theaters long enough to cover that as well. That’s assuming the film had no more markets to open in, which isn’t the case. It has yet to open in Brazil and some smaller markets, so it should get a boost at the box office over the next month and a bit.
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November 30th, 2019
Frozen II remains on pace to top expectations and set a couple of Thanksgiving weekend records. It should earn both the three-day and the five-day records. In fact, with a Friday haul of $34.03 million, it is on pace for about $85 million from Friday through Sunday, meaning its three-day Thanksgiving weekend won’t be too far behind the first Frozen’s five-day Thanksgiving weekend haul of $93.59 million. Even with weaker legs thanks to weaker reviews, a lower A minus CinemaScore, and being a sequel, it is still on pace to top its predecessor and hit $400 million domestically with ease.
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November 29th, 2019
Frozen II slipped faster than anticipated on Thursday, pulling in $14.72 million. Family films tend to fall faster on Thanksgiving Thursday, because families spend time with each other rather than going to the theaters, but I was hoping it wouldn’t fall quite this fast. Frozen II fell fast enough that the more adult oriented The Hunger Games: Catching Fire remains the Biggest Thursday in November, albeit by a very close margin. Furthermore, the film is still well ahead of our prediction, helping it crack $200 million domestically on Thursday. Projections have the film destroying the 5-Day Thanksgiving record, with $130 million, maybe more, so there’s plenty to celebrate. As for the film’s long term chances, it doesn’t have any direct competition until Christmas Day, so it will have no trouble remaining in wide release until the New Year.
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November 28th, 2019
After breaking the record for Biggest Monday of November and the Biggest Tuesday of November, Frozen II had to settle for second place for the Biggest Wednesday of November, as it earned $23.78 million on Wednesday. This puts it just shy of The Matrix Revolutions’s record of $24.31 million; however, that was The Matrix Revolutions’ opening day, so I think it is safe to assume Frozen II will be back on top on Thursday. Furthermore, this puts the film on pace to top our prediction by a substantial margin. In fact, it looks like it will top its three-day opening weekend over the five-day Thanksgiving weekend. It’s chances of matching its predecessor have increased dramatically.
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November 28th, 2019
Frozen II led the way on yet another chart, this time the theater average chart, earning an average of $29,339 during its opening weekend. Dark Waters was right behind with an average of $25,652 in four theaters, which does suggest at least some potential to expand. Jay and Silent Bob Reboot continues its impressive road show run earning an average of $16,140 in five theaters. Citizen K was the final film in the $10,000 club with an opening of $10,571 in its lone theater.
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November 27th, 2019
Frozen II dominated the international box office the way few films manage, earning $228.2 million in 37 markets for a worldwide debut of $358.2 million. This includes a $54.38 million debut in China, which is more than the second place film earned on the worldwide chart. In fact, the movie earned more in South Korea with a total opening of $32.31 million on 2,648 screens, including $28.10 million over the weekend than the second place film on the worldwide chart earned. In the U.K., it pulled in $19.36 million in 671 theaters, while it also cracked $10 million in both Germany ($14.9 million) and France ($13.4 million). Furthermore, the film has yet to open in Italy, Russia, Australia, and Brazil, so it isn’t done yet and should remain on top of the chart for a few weeks.
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November 27th, 2019
There are two wide releases this Thanksgiving, both of which are earning stellar reviews. Unfortunately, only one of those two films, Knives Out, is expected to make any real impact at the box office. Queen and Slim is just hoping to reach the top five. That said, both films will be crushed by Frozen II, which broke records last weekend and it is expected to have a strong hold during the holidays. This weekend last year was the weekend after Thanksgiving and the biggest new release was The Possession of Hannah Grace. Queen and Slim should top that at the box office. In fact, Knives Out might top Ralph Breaks the Internet’s sophomore stint, so even without Frozen II, the weekend would be looking good. 2019 might do well enough on the year-over-year competition that it will save November and give the year a real shot at ending on a strong note.
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November 26th, 2019
Frozen II beat expectations over the weekend, and earned several records along the way. In fact, its three-day opening of $130.26 million is better than the previous 5-day Thanksgiving weekend for an animated film, a record previously held by Frozen. The other two new releases, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and 21 Bridges, missed expectations, but were close enough that the overall box office was very healthy. In fact, the box office rose 89% from last weekend to $204 million. This was 5.7% lower than the same weekend last year, but this weekend last year was Thanksgiving, so being down by 5.7% during a holiday misalignment is a fantastic result. We did lose the weekday holidays, so year-over-year, 2019 lost a lot of ground to 2018 and is now behind last year’s pace by 7.4% or $770 million at $9.71 billion to $10.48 billion. We should gain a lot next weekend, thanks to Thanksgiving, and by the first weekend of December, things will settle down.
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November 24th, 2019
It didn’t look like Frozen II would match our $125 million prediction based on Friday’s estimate, but if weekend estimates hold, it will did so with $127.0 million. This is not only the highest opening weekend for an Animated film in November, but anytime outside of summer. This greater-than-anticipated internal multiplier stronger suggests better legs overall. It is a family film opening just before Thanksgiving, so it was expected to have long legs regardless, but its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore were merely good and not great. Add in the sequel effect and the film leg’s wouldn’t be nearly as stunning as the first Frozen’s legs were. However, after this result, I’m a lot more confident the film will still be at least a truly wide release come January, if not a saturation level release, as its predecessor was.
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November 23rd, 2019
As expected, Frozen II started with a record-breaking Friday, as the film pulled in $41.8 million during its opening day, the best day in November for an animated film. Combine this start with its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore and the film should have decent legs. The audience reaction is a little disappointing, so I think our prediction of $125 million is unlikely. It will come close enough to become a huge hit domestically. In fact, it is on pace to smash the November 3-day weekend for an animated film by the middle of Saturday and the five-day Thanksgiving weekend for any film by the middle of Sunday, and it isn’t even Thanksgiving. Those records are currently held by The Incredibles ($70.5 million) and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire ($109.9 million). The Incredibles record will obviously be broken, but we’ll have to wait until next week to see what Thanksgiving looks like. Frozen II is the fastest-starting November animated release of all time, but I don’t think it will have the legs to catch Frozen’s domestic total, unless it is able to remain in saturation level wide release until the New Year.
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November 22nd, 2019
Frozen II is giving box office watchers a reason to celebrate after earning $8.5 million during its previews on Thursday, setting the record for an animated film in November. This is not as much as The Lion King ($23 million) or Toy Story 4 ($12 million) made during their previews, but those two films opened during summer holidays and family films’ performances during previews is proportional to the number of kids who are on holidays. A better comparison is Aladdin, which earned $7 million during its previews back in May before the vast majority of kids were out of school. It turned that preview into an opening weekend haul of $91 million. This film does have better reviews and I think there isn’t much difference between a sequel and a remake when it comes to legs, so that should help this film’s legs. I’m cautiously optimistic that the film will match our $125 million weekend prediction. We will know more when we get Friday’s estimates.
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November 21st, 2019
The winter holiday season unofficially began on the first weekend of November and so far performance at the box office has been less than acceptable. That needs to—and should—turn around this weekend. According to most industry trackers, Frozen II should break records. Its reviews are far from award-worthy, but they are great for a family film. On the other hand, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood’s reviews are award-worthy and the film should have really long legs, especially if major nominations start rolling in. Finally, 21 Bridges has the weakest reviews and the lowest box office potential of the three wide releases this week. This weekend last year was led by the one-two punch of Ralph Breaks the Internet and Creed II. Frozen II should easily earn more than those two’s combined $92 million. Unfortunately, last year there were four films that topped $20 million over the weekend, while this year there will be only one. Last year’s depth will likely result in 2019 losing yet another weekend in the year-over-year competition. At least it should be close.
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November 18th, 2019
Ford v Ferrari had a good opening over the weekend, but unfortunately, it was only good and not great. Furthermore, it was the only film that had a good weekend. The other two new releases crashed and burned, while the holdovers couldn’t compensate for this weakness. The overall box office fell 11% from last weekend to just $108 million, which was 37% lower than the same weekend last year. The year-to-date numbers don’t look any better, as 2019 is now behind 2018’s pace by a margin of 6.5% or $660 million at $9.47 billion to $10.13 billion. Worse still, 2019 has fallen behind 2016’s pace. Things need to turn around and fast.
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November 1st, 2019
Joker single-handedly saved October. Had the film merely matched expectations, then the month would had suffered a major loss in the year-over-year competition. We sill lost a little ground, but not so much that we will look to October as the reason 2019 missed last year’s pace. As for November, we have some potential monster hits with Frozen II leading the way. If that film doesn’t earn at least $1 billion worldwide, I will be shocked. Additionally, every week has at least one movie coming out that has a somewhat realistic shot at $100 million, although not all of them will get there. Unfortunately, last November was much better, with five films that topped $100 million, including three that earned more than $200 million. I think 2019 will be better at the top, but it just won’t have the depth to keep pace with last year.
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September 23rd, 2019
Animated adventure with the voices of Kristen Bell, Idina Mazel, and Josh Gad opens November 22 ... Full Movie Details.
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June 11th, 2019
Animated adventure with the voices of Kristen Bell, Idina Mazel, and Josh Gad opens November 22 ... Full Movie Details.
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February 14th, 2019
Animated adventure with the voices of Kristen Bell, Idina Menzel, Josh Gad, and Jonathan Groff opens November 22 ... Full Movie Details.
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