January 24th, 2019
We’re getting close to the monster hits from fall finally coming out on the home market. Closer, but we are not quite there yet. This week’s biggest release is First Man, but it is not the best. The race for Pick of the Week came down to three contenders: Dirty Rotten Scoundrels, The Hate U Give, and JoJo’s Bizarre Adventure: Set Three. It was a close race, but in the end The Hate U Give won out.
More...
January 22nd, 2019
The Hate U Give opened in limited release in October and while it never reached the top five, it did very well at the box office. Its reviews are 97% positive, but it hasn’t gone anywhere during Awards Season. Does it deserve more? Or is it busted Oscar-bait?
More...
November 14th, 2018
Chef Flynn debuted on top spot on the theater average chart with $29,869 in one theater. The overall box office chart leader, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, was next with an average of $16,318. The Front Runner followed with an average of $12,886 over the weekend. The film opened on Tuesday, which obviously had some negative effect of its weekend number, but even the full six-day result of $71,742 / $17,936 average isn’t enough to warrant a full wide expansion. El Angel was the final film in the $10,000 club with an average of $11,674 in two theaters.
More...
November 7th, 2018
Boy Erased led the way on the theater average chart earning an average of $41,411 in five theaters. This was nearly three times the second place film, A Private War, which earned an average of $15,123 in four theaters. The only other film in the $10,000 club was the overall box office leader, Bohemian Rhapsody, with an average of $12,765.
More...
October 31st, 2018
Suspiria led the theater average chart both over the weekend and for the year earning just over $180,000 in two theaters for an average of $92,019. This tops the previous average of $73,572 by Free Solo, although that movie was playing in four theaters. Up next was Can You Ever Forgive Me? with an average of $14,255 in 25 theaters during its second weekend of release. A couple of foreign-language films were next with Burning earning an average of $13,066 in two theaters and Border earning an average of $10,529 in seven.
More...
October 30th, 2018
The month of October ends on a soft note with only one of the new releases we talked about in our prediction reached the top ten over the weekend. And even that film, Hunter Killer, didn’t quite reach our low expectations. Fortunately, Halloween came within a rounding error of predictions with $31.42 million and the overall box office wasn’t too bad at $104 million. Granted, this is 37% lower than last weekend, but this is to be expected for Halloween weekend. More importantly, the overall box office was 37% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2018 has pulled in $9.55 billion, putting it ahead of 2017’s running tally of $8.45 billion. At first glance, this looks like 2018 has a $1 billion lead, but it was actually $999 million, according to our numbers. It will certainly get there by the end of business on Monday. This is a fantastic result, but a short-lived one, as November and December won’t be able to maintain this lead.
More...
October 25th, 2018
Mid90s had a much better than expected start earning an average of $64,539 in four theaters. This is the third highest theater average of 2018 behind just Free Solo ($73,572 in four theaters) and Eighth Grade ($65,949 also in four theaters). On the other hand, its reviews are good, but not great, so it could struggle to expand wide. That said, I would be absolutely shocked if the film didn’t earn some measure of mainstream success after this start. Can You Ever Forgive Me? opened in second place with an average of $32,302 in five theaters. Its reviews are award-worthy, so it should have very long legs and if it actually picks up some major award nominations, it could expand truly wide. Wildlife also rode amazing reviews to an average of $26,147 in four theaters. The overall box office leader, Halloween, was next with an average of $19,405. The Price of Everything opened with $16,817 in one theater, while the re-release of Wings of Desire managed $12,885, also in one theater.
More...
October 23rd, 2018
Halloween opened on the high end of expectations earning $76.22 million during its opening weekend. This tops The Nun’s previous best opening for a horror film released this year of $53.81 million. Both The Hate U Give and The Old Man and the Gun expanded into the top ten, which also helped the overall box office a little but. Speaking of the overall box office, it rose 21% from last weekend, hitting $165 million. More impressively, this was 72% higher than the same weekend last year. Normally, a year-over-year change this dramatic only happens when there is a misalignment in holidays, but this has been happening a lot this year. Year-to-date, 2018’s lead over 2017 climbed to $960 million or 11.3% at $9.39 billion to $8.44 billion. There’s no way this lead will remain this high at the end of the year, but it would take a serious collapse for 2018 to not finish with a higher total box office than 2017.
More...
October 21st, 2018
According to Universal’s numbers, Halloween is going to debut with $77.75 million over the weekend. This is by far the biggest opening in the franchise; in fact, it is the biggest worldwide hit in the franchise after just three days at the domestic box office. Its reviews are 80% positive, while it earned a B plus from CinemaScore, and both of those suggest better-than-average legs, for a horror film. Plus, with actual Halloween just 10 days away, it could hold better next weekend than it otherwise would. I don’t expect it to get to $200 million domestically, but it will become Universal’s second-biggest hit of 2018, at least so far. Internationally, the film looks to pull in $14.3 million in 23 markets. It wasn’t able to match its opening here in any major market, which isn’t surprising given its start here. It will come the closest in Mexico, as it is estimated to make $4.99 million over the weekend. It only managed second place in the U.K. with a projected $3.61 million over the weekend, which is equivalent to a $20 million opening here.
More...
October 20th, 2018
Before the weekend began, people were asking if Halloween would top The Nun for biggest opening weekend for a horror film released this year. After Friday, no one is asking that question anymore, because the answer is obviously going to be yes. The film pulled in $33.34 million during its opening day, meaning it is within striking distance of Venom’s record for biggest October weekend. Venom earned $32.50 million during its opening day. Additionally, Halloween has 81% positive reviews and a B plus from CinemaScore, which is great for a horror film. On the other hand, horror films do tend to have shorter legs than comic book movies, so Halloween is essentially a coin-toss to break the record. Universal is going with $80.3 million, so we likely won’t know the answer until Monday when the final numbers show up.
More...
October 19th, 2018
In order to match predictions, Halloween needed to at least match The Nun’s previews, while I would have preferred it top that film’s number by 10%. That means it needed to earn $5.4 million to $6.0 million for me to be satisfied it would match our $63 million prediction. It earned $7.7 million last night. Combine this with its reviews and it could break the October weekend record, set earlier this month by Venom, with just over $80 million, but $75 million is more likely.
More...
October 18th, 2018
Right now, The Nun has the best opening for a horror film released this year with $53.81 million during its opening weekend. Most people think Halloween will top this, while some think it will crush this number. In fact, high end predictions have this film earning more than the top ten earned this weekend last year. It would need more than $75 million to get there, albeit not that much more to do so. That’s still asking a lot. The only other “new release” of the week is The Hate U Give, which is indeed expanding truly wide. However, it is unlikely to hit the top five. This weekend last year, Tyler Perry’s Boo 2 earned first place with $21.23 million, while Geostorm was the only other film to earn more than $10 million. Halloween should earn more than $21.23 million during its opening day and there could be as many as five films earning $10 million or more. Even if there is as few as three $10 million films, 2018 will still easily top last year’s box office number giving the year yet another win in the year-over-year comparison.
More...
October 17th, 2018
Beautiful Boy had the best theater average of the weekend and the fourth best average for a limited release this year at $54,722 in four theaters. However, its reviews are well below what limited releases normally need to thrive, so I’m worried about its legs going forward. The only other film in the $10,000 club was Charm City, which opened with $10,511 in its lone theater.
More...
October 16th, 2018
Last weekend, Venom and A Star is Born opened better than predicted by a large margin and they even held on better than expected this weekend. Unfortunately, none of the new releases matched predictions and that hurt the overall box office. The total box office was down 25% from last weekend at $136 million. More importantly, this is 36% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2018 is ahead of 2017 at $9.18 billion to $8.31 billion, which is a $880 million or 10.5% lead. A double-digit lead at this point of the year is stunning and while it very likely won’t last, it would take an complete collapse for the lead to evaporate by the end of the year.
More...
October 10th, 2018
The overall box office leader, Venom, was also the top film on the theater average chart earning an average of $18,884. Studio 54 was yet another documentary success story opening with $14,909 in its lone theater. The only holdover in the $10,000 club was Free Solo with an average of $13,726 in 41 theaters and by the end of Sunday, it was nearly at $1 million. The Hate U Give was close behind with an average of $13,336 in 36 theaters. Finally, A Star is Born was the last film in the $10,000 club, earning an average of $12,373 in wide release.
More...
October 7th, 2018
If studio estimates are correct, then Venom has crushed expectations over the weekend earning $80.03 million. This easily destroys the October weekend record, previously held by Gravity. The film is also projected to pull in $125.2 million on 20,800 screens in 58 markets. On the other hand, the film earned 32% positive reviews and a B plus from CinemaScore, so I don’t expect good legs going forward. That said, Sony’s share of the film’s global debut is likely very close to the film’s $100 million production budget, so unless the advertising budget was unreasonable, even really short legs won’t prevent the movie from earning a profit.
More...
October 6th, 2018
Despite earning terrible reviews, Venom was able to destroy the record for biggest October day with $32.75 million on Friday, topping the previous record holder Paranormal Activity 3 by a significant margin. Not only will the film blow past $70 million over the weekend, it could come close to $80 million. On the down side, as previously mentioned, its reviews are terrible, while it only managed a B plus from CinemaScore, so it won’t have good legs going forward. That said, the film reportedly cost $100 million to make ($116 million on the screen, $100 million after tax breaks) so even tragically short legs won’t stop the film from breaking even.
More...
October 5th, 2018
We are getting really close to Awards Season and there are some top-notch films on this week’s list that could pick up some major nominations. This includes The Hate U Give, which is the biggest release of the week. However, I’m also interested in The Great Buster, Private Life, Trouble, and Heavy Trip.
More...
October 1st, 2018
September turned out to be a solid month. The Nun beat expectations to become a $100 million hit, while there were also several midlevel hits in the mix. Granted, it lost ground when compared to last September, but last September broke records, and this September held on better than expected. Hopefully this means October will be able to continue 2018’s winning ways. There are several potential $100 million hits, starting with Venom and A Star is Born, which open the first weekend. Meanwhile, both First Man and Halloween could break the century mark later in the month. By comparison, last October, no movie topped $100 million, with Blade Runner 2049 coming the closest. 2018 should extend its lead over 2017 during the full month, potentially by a significant margin.
More...
June 25th, 2018
Drama starring Amandla Stenberg opens October 19 ... Full Movie Details.
More...
