January 31st, 2018
This is one of the worse times of year for the home market. Until we start getting the holiday blockbusters landing on DVD / Blu-ray, there’s not much to talk about. That’s not to say there are no good releases, as God’s Own Country, The Square, and Steven Universe: Season One are all easily worth picking up. There are just no big releases. For example, the Pick of the Week goes to Professor Marston & The Wonder Women on Blu-ray, which was sadly ignored by moviegoers when it first hit theaters.
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November 7th, 2017
Thor: Ragnarok beat predictions by a substantial margin earning the fourth biggest opening weekend of the year. Its opening weekend haul of $122.74 million helped this weekend rise 135% compared to last weekend hitting $179 million. Unfortunately, while Thor: Ragnarok was a monster hit, the rest of the box office wasn’t able to make much of an impact, leaving the overall box office down 6.6% from this weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $8.77 billion, putting it behind 2016's pace at 4.9% or $450 million.
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November 2nd, 2017
November begins with Thor: Ragnarok and A Bad Moms Christmas. Thor: Ragnarok is widely expected to be the sixth film of 2017 to open with $100 million. On the other hand, A Bad Moms Christmas opened yesterday and when I started writing this in the early hours of Thursday morning, there were still no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. Oh boy. That’s not a good sign. Worse still, no other new release it going to come close to $10 million over the weekend. This weekend last year, there were three wide releases that earned more than $10 million, led by Doctor Strange with $85 million. Thor: Ragnarok will top that, but this year's depth is terrible compared to last year and we will very likely see yet another loss in the year-over-year comparison.
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October 31st, 2017
It was a terrible weekend at the box office with only two films cracking $10 million, Jigsaw and Tyler Perry’s Boo 2: A Madea Halloween. Geostorm earned third place with just $5.90 million. Overall, the box office fell 21% from last weekend to just $75 million. More importantly, this is 15% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 continues to struggle with a running tally of $8.57 billion. This is $470 million or $5.2% below last year’s pace, meaning we fell behind last year’s pace by a further 0.2 percentage points. The box office really needed to be eating into the deficit during the month of October, but that hasn’t been the case.
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October 28th, 2017
As predicted, Jigsaw led the way on Friday. However, it didn’t do as well as previews suggested, as it earned $7.17 million during its opening day. I don’t expect its legs to improve during the rest of the weekend, as its reviews are just 37% positive, and it earned a B from CinemaScore. It will still do better than our $14 million prediction, but not by as much as we thought it would yesterday. Look for $17 million over the weekend, which is the second weakest opening in the franchise and the weakest in terms of ticket sales. I really think Lionsgate will end this franchise, at least for a while. Perhaps, in ten years or so, we will get a remake.
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October 26th, 2017
There are three wide releases coming out this week, although only Jigsaw is expected to make any real impact at the box office. The other two, Suburbicon and Thank You for Your Service, are opening in barely more than 2,000 theaters and neither of them are expected to do well at the box office. Meanwhile, Tyler Perry’s Boo 2: A Madea Halloween, has an actual shot at repeating in first place, mostly because of the weak competition. This is terrible news for the overall box office, as it means we are going to have a hard time matching last year’s box office, even though last year there was only one wide release, Inferno.
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October 26th, 2017
The winners of our Jump Scare contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween’s opening weekend were...
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October 24th, 2017
The weekend box office was weaker than expected with only one of the new releases topping predictions. Tyler Perry’s Boo 2: A Madea Halloween wasn’t that one film, but it still led the way with $21.23 million. The only other film to top $10 million was Geostorm with $13.71 million, but it lived up to its disaster genre due to its $100 million production budget. Overall, the box office fell 6.5% from last week to $95 million. That decline is positively glowing compared to the year-over-year comparison. Compared to this weekend last year, 2017 was down 25%. Year-to-date, 2017 is now behind last year’s pace by 5.0% or $440 million at $8.46 billion to $8.90 billion. Unless November and December are stellar, there’s no way 2017 is going to catch up to 2017.
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October 22nd, 2017
Boo! 2 is arguably slightly under-performing this weekend, with Lionsgate projecting a weekend total of $21.6 million as of Sunday morning, a figure that is down about $7 million from the debut of Boo! A Madea Halloween. But, in the bigger picture, it represents the continuation of a remarkable run for the Madea franchise that stretches now to eight films, all but one of which have opened with more than $20 million, and which have all topped $50 million, so far. Boo! 2 will be helped by Halloween, which should be just enough to take it over $50 million, and put the franchise close to $500 million at the box office. The only other comedy franchises with close to this longevity at the box office are The Pink Panther, and The Muppets, although neither of those have relied on a single actor (take a bow, Tyler Perry) for the entirety of their run.
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October 21st, 2017
As expected, Tyler Perry’s Boo 2: A Madea Halloween led the way on Friday with $7.37 million. Granted, its reviews are terrible, as its Tomatometer Score has fallen into the single-digit range. On the other hand, it earned a A minus from CinemaScore, which is the same score its predecessor earned. If this film has the same legs as the original did, then it will earn $22.4 million during the opening weekend. However, it is a sequel, so it will likely miss that mark with about $22 million. That’s approximately 10% below our prediction, so I’m happy with that result. It is also likely more than the film cost to make, so Lionsgate should also be happy.
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October 20th, 2017
Tyler Perry’s Boo 2: A Madea Halloween earned $760,000 during its previews last night, which is lower than the $855,000 the first Boo! managed last year. Its early reviews are lower than the original’s reviews were, so that will also likely mean lower legs. This will make it difficult to match our $25 million prediction, but it should come relatively close.
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October 20th, 2017
There are five films opening wide or semi-wide this week, but only one of them, Tyler Perry’s Boo 2: A Madea Halloween, has a real shot at top spot. The best-reviewed new release of the week is Only the Brave, while the Geostorm is the widest release. Then there are the two semi-wide releases, The Snowman and Same Kind of Different as Me. Because there are so many new releases coming out this week, one or two of them are practically guaranteed to slip between the cracks. This weekend last year, the box office was led by the original Boo! with $28.50 million, while the new releases made just over $70 million combined. That seems out of reach for this year’s crop, so 2017 will likely lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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October 19th, 2017
The winners of our Feeling Happy contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Happy Death Day’s opening weekend were...
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October 12th, 2017
Next weekend will be a busy weekend with up to five new releases coming out. I would be very surprised if all five films do actually open truly wide, while only Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween has a real shot at first place. Because of that, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween.
We are continuing the Halloween Trick or Treat contests this week. Each winner will get a Frankenprize that is either Halloween Treat, a Horror film plus another prize, or a Halloween Trick, a movie so bad it is scary it was made plus another prize.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will win the final win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay!
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October 4th, 2017
Comedy written and directed by, and starring, Tyler Perry opens October 20 ... Full Movie Details.
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October 1st, 2017
September destroyed the previous September monthly record for total box office take, with $800 million or so (we won’t know the exact figure until after the weekend), which tops 2016’s record of $616 million. Granted, this is almost entirely due to It’s record breaking run, and the rest of the month was merely average. Kingsman: The Golden Circle was the only other film to come close to $100 million. October doesn’t look any better, as far as depth is concerned. Blade Runner 2049 is widely expected to be the biggest hit of the month, but it is the only film expected to reach $100 million domestically. Boo 2 should be the second biggest hit of the month, while there are only a couple of other films that have a shot at $50 million. Part of the problem is the level of competition, as there are 16 films opening during the four October weekends. (Needless to say, some of the predictions below will be a little short, as there’s not much to say about a film that will barely open in the top ten and disappear two weeks later.) That’s way too many and most will be buried by the competition. Last October was a flop, as no film earned more than $100 million at the box office. There were a few films that came close, including the original Boo! movie. As long as Blade Runner 2049 matches expectations, 2017 should win the year-over-year comparison by a small margin. If we get one surprise hit, then 2017 has a real shot at closing the gap with 2016 by a significant margin. I choose to be cautiously optimistic.
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