June 19th, 2019
It is a shallow week with a lot of films on the main list that would be secondary Blu-ray releases on a normal week. There are only two contenders for Pick of the Week: Us and Killing Eve: Season Two. The Us Blu-ray screener hasn’t arrived yet, but it is still Pick of the Week, even with an unknown quality of extras.
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June 12th, 2019
It is a very busy week on the home market, but like last week, there’s a lot of what would be filler in a normal week. In fact, there’s only one big release, Captain Marvel, which is also one of the better releases on this week’s list. The only other release that was really in contention for Pick of the Week was The Mustang, but the lack of extras on the Blu-ray hurt its chances.
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April 18th, 2019
While there were no breakout hits on this week’s theater average chart, but there are few members of the $10,000 club. Her Smell led the way with an average of $12,314 in three theaters. Teen Spirit did well with an average of $10,905 in four theaters. Meanwhile, Wild Nights with Emily just managed to grab a spot in the $10,000 club with an average of $10,070 in three theaters.
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April 12th, 2019
High Life led the way on the theater average chart earning an average of $24,835 in four theaters. Amazing Grace was next with an average of $14,674 in eight theaters. Meanwhile, the overall number one film, Shazam, was the final film in the $10,000 club with an average of $12,688.
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April 4th, 2019
Dumbo was the only film in the $10,000 Club at the weekend, as it earned an average of $10,798 while earning first place on the overall chart. The best limited release was Diane, which earned an average of $8,156 in three theaters.
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April 2nd, 2019
Dumbo wasn’t able to match expectations, but it still topped the chart over the weekend with $45.99 million. This isn’t enough for this weekend to match last weekend, as it fell 7.3% to $137 million. This is better than the same weekend last year by a tiny 0.6%, but anything that keeps 2019’s winning streak alive is good news in my book. Year-to-date, 2019 is still behind 2018 by practically the same margin as it was last weekend. In fact, the margin in raw dollars rose to $470 million, while the percent gap dipped below 17% at $2.34 billion to $2.81 billion. Hopefully things will improve in April.
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March 31st, 2019
Dumbo will open in first place with over the weekend with an estimated $45.0 million. This is lower than expected and not a strong opening for a film that reportedly cost $170 million to make. It did marginally better internationally, earning $71.0 million, but it is also playing in all major markets, so it has almost nowhere to expand at this point. Going forward, the film should have decent legs, in part because it is a family film. Also, while its reviews are not going to be a major asset, it did earn an A minus from CinemaScore, so its word-of-mouth is going to be better than its critical reception. However, unless it has really long legs, it is going to be a real challenge to pay for that production budget any time soon. Part of the reason I think this film is struggling is “Franchise Fatigue”. Granted, I’m not sure I would call Disney’s Live Action Remakes a real franchise, not unless they start doing some crossovers to unite the universe. (Don’t do that. Please don’t do that.) However, I do think it is susceptible to the same fatigue and this is a real problem for Disney, because they have two more major releases for this year, plus about a dozen further releases in various stages of development.
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March 30th, 2019
Dumbo opened with $15.32 million on Friday. This is weaker than expected, but hardly a bad start. Its reviews are merely mixed, while it got an A minus from CinemaScore, so its legs should be decent. I don’t think it will reach $50 million over the weekend, so it will miss even low end expectations. That said, a $46 million opening is more than enough to get it to $100 million domestically and if it can find an audience internationally, it will break even sometime during its home market run.
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March 29th, 2019
Dumbo earned $2.6 million during its previews, which is on the low end of expectations. It is just a fraction of the $16.3 million Beauty and the Beast managed in 2017. Additionally, this film’s reviews are the weaker and this could also affect its legs. On the other hand, Beauty and the Beast had such massive buzz is was destined to be more front-loaded that Dumbo will be. I still think Dumbo will miss our $58 million prediction, but I don’t think it will be as bad as this number first makes it appear.
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March 29th, 2019
Dumbo essentially has the weekend to itself and should earn first place with ease. Both The Beach Bum and Unplanned are opening in just over 1,000 theaters, but neither is expected to be a major player at the box office. Finally, Hotel Mumbai is expanding into nearly 1,000 theaters and could reach the top ten. At least one of these smaller films will reach the top ten; in fact, all three of them could reach the top ten. However, this is due to really weak competition, not any box office strength these films possess. This weekend last year, Ready Player One led the way with $41 million, while Acrimony earned second place with $17 million. There’s a chance Dumbo will earn more than those two films earned. There’s also a chance Us and Captain Marvel will match those two films at the box office. It should be a good weekend for 2019 in the year-over-year comparison.
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March 28th, 2019
Hotel Mumbai led the way on the theater average chart with an average of $22,016 in 4 theaters during its opening weekend. The only other film in the $10,000 club was Us with an average of $19,010.
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March 24th, 2019
Us made the most of its opening weekend with an estimated debut of $70.25 million, which is much higher than even the high end of expectations. If this opening holds, it would be the tenth-biggest March opening, but that’s a big if. It’s just behind 300 and just ahead of The Lorax, so I expect it to change a spot when Monday’s final numbers are released. The film should have reasonable legs going forward, as its reviews are a major asset, while it earned a B from CinemaScore, which is a good result for a horror film. Internationally, the film is opening ahead of Get Out, but far behind its domestic debut with an estimated $16.7 million in 47 markets. This includes the U.K., where it earned $3.7 million during its opening weekend. However, it only cracked $1 million in three other markets: France ($2 million); Germany ($1.4 million); and Spain ($1.2 million).
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March 22nd, 2019
I missed last week. Last week there were a number of films that earned great reviews. This week, none of the films with more than a handful of reviews are doing well enough to be optimistic about their box office chances. Both Buddy and Maze are earning 100% positive reviews, so maybe one of them will beat the odds.
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March 1st, 2019
2019 has been terrible so far and by the end of February, will be about half a billion dollars behind 2018’s pace. March should be the first step in 2019’s attempt to recover from this hole it has dug for itself. Captain Marvel will be the biggest film of the year so far and tracking has it opening with more than $100 million during the second weekend of March. While that film is undoubtedly going to become the biggest hit of the month, it isn’t the only potential hit opening in March, as both Us and Dumbo are expected to earn $100 million domestically; Dumbo might even top $200 million domestically. As for last March, there were only two films that hit $100 million, A Wrinkle in Time and Ready Player One, and neither of them came close to $200 million. There’s a slim chance this March will be better than last year, even if we ignore Captain Marvel. We could cut the deficit in half by the end of the month, if everything goes well. Then again, if everything went well during the first two months of the year, we wouldn’t be in such a deep hole at this point.
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February 12th, 2019
Real-life thriller starring Armie Hammer and Dev Patel opens March 22 ... Full Movie Details.
A true story of humanity and heroism, Hotel Mumbai recounts the 2008 siege of the famed Taj Hotel by a group of terrorists in Mumbai, India. Refusing to leave their guests, the renowned chef Hemant Oberoi and a waiter choose to risk their lives to keep everyone safe. As the world watches on, a desperate couple is forced to make unthinkable sacrifices to protect their newborn child.
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