February 10th, 2020
The Oscars were handed out last night and unlike most years, I wasn’t able to live-blog the awards. This is a real shame, because it was one of the best Oscar nights I can remember and there were very few awards that made me legitimately angry, unlike many years in the past. There was even a surprise winner for the full night, as Parasite earned the most wins with four Oscars. It is incredibly rare for a foreign-language film to pull off that feat.
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February 8th, 2020
Our annual Oscar Prediction contest closes at noon, Pacific Time, on Sunday, so now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We finish our shortened schedule with Best Picture, which is basically a two-horse race at this point.
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February 8th, 2020
Our annual Oscar Prediction contest closes at noon, Pacific Time, on Sunday, so now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We are continuing our shortened schedule with Best Director. We have yet another close race with two films that are practically a coin-toss away from being the winner.
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February 6th, 2020
Our annual Oscar Prediction contest is underway so now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We are continuing our shortened schedule with Best Adapted Screenplay. We have yet another close race. True, there is a favorite, or to be more accurate, a close two-way race, but none of the nominees can really be called long shots.
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February 5th, 2020
Our annual Oscar Prediction contest is underway so now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We are continuing our shortened schedule with Best Lead Actor. We have a definite favorite this year, but I’m really hoping for an upset.
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January 13th, 2020
The Oscar nominations were announced on Monday, and the results were... well, there were some puzzling results. Joker led the way with eleven nominations. ... A film with 69% positive reviews earned the most nominations. It’s not the worst-reviewed movie to earn a Best Picture Nomination—after all, Bohemian Rhapsody was nominated just last year. However, this film is arguably the worst-reviewed movie to ever earn the most nominations in a single year.
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January 8th, 2020
The home market returns to normal after two of the worst weeks I’ve ever seen. Keep in mind, I said normal, not good. There’s only one big release of the week, Joker, and not much else that is selling well enough to make the main list. In fact, not everything in the main list is selling well enough to get there on just an average week. The contenders for Pick of the Week include Brick, The Lighthouse, and Zombie Land Saga: Season One. It was a really close call and it came down to the roll of the dice, with Zombie Land Saga winning out.
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January 6th, 2020
The Golden Globes winners were announced on Sunday and we have some interesting developments for the rest of Awards Season. 1917 wasn’t considered a front-runner with five films earning more nominations. However, after this result, it might be the front-runner to become the big winner on Oscar night.
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January 3rd, 2020
The preliminary final numbers for 2019 have been announced and we had record-breaking results. Overall, the worldwide box office hit $41 billion, with a $30 billion international and $11 billion domestic break-down. Of that total, Disney was responsible for $13.2 billion, or 32% of the worldwide total. This does include its Fox releases, but the studio earned $11.1 billion by itself. This breaks the previous record of $7.6 billion, set by Disney in 2016. It doesn’t just break the previous record; it practically redefines the industry.
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December 18th, 2019
There’s almost exactly a week till Christmas, which explains the slim number of new releases. That said, nearly every film on the main list is worth picking up with a few contenders for Pick of the Week. It was a close three-way race, but in the end, Abominable earned Pick of the Week.
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December 12th, 2019
The Screen Actors Guild announced their nominations this week and we are starting to see some patterns with similar names appearing over and over again. This time Bombshell led the way, earning four nominations, but four other films earned two or more nominations.
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December 11th, 2019
The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. It is still very early in the year and the predictive value of the Golden Globes is a little suspect, but there are still some things to learn here. (This is especially true on the TV end, as there’s talk about how strange the nominations are this year.) Marriage Story led the way with six nominations, just ahead of The Irishman and Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood, both of which picked up five nods.
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December 8th, 2019
Frozen II fell both faster than expected, and faster than projections based on Friday’s estimates. However, the film is still managing an estimated $34.67 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $337.59 million. This is enough to push it ahead of Joker and into seventh place on the yearly chart. If this holds up, then it will have an excellent shot at topping the first Frozen’s domestic total, even without the Christmas break coming up. Internationally, the film pulled in $90.2 million in 48 markets for totals of $582.1 million internationally and $919.7 million worldwide. It had no major market openings this weekend, but it is earning an estimated $800,000 in South Africa, which would make it the second biggest opening for an animated film there, behind only Minions. The film has become the biggest animated film in South Korea with $75.5 million. It as also topped its predecessor in Russia ($23.0 million) and Mexico ($21.1 million) and a lot of smaller markets.
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December 4th, 2019
We are happy to announce that today we have added a frequently requested feature: a metrics section on the film summary page. With a quick look, it’s easy to see the film’s opening weekend gross, legs (how well a film holds onto its box office day to day and week to week), domestic share, production budget (along with how it's related to its worldwide gross), theater counts, and the inflation-adjusted domestic box office.
This section can be found under the synopsis in the Summary tab on a film’s page. For help with understanding the terms in this section, or anywhere on our site, we have a handy glossary of movie business terms.
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November 27th, 2019
Frozen II dominated the international box office the way few films manage, earning $228.2 million in 37 markets for a worldwide debut of $358.2 million. This includes a $54.38 million debut in China, which is more than the second place film earned on the worldwide chart. In fact, the movie earned more in South Korea with a total opening of $32.31 million on 2,648 screens, including $28.10 million over the weekend than the second place film on the worldwide chart earned. In the U.K., it pulled in $19.36 million in 671 theaters, while it also cracked $10 million in both Germany ($14.9 million) and France ($13.4 million). Furthermore, the film has yet to open in Italy, Russia, Australia, and Brazil, so it isn’t done yet and should remain on top of the chart for a few weeks.
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November 20th, 2019
Ford v Ferrari opened in top spot on the international chart, just like it did domestically. However, it wasn’t nearly as dominant earning $21.4 million in 41 markets. The film wasn’t nearly as strong internationally as it was domestically in most markets, but it did do really well in Russia with an opening of $3.33 million on 1,044 screens, easily earning first place in that market. It’s wasn’t as successful in either the U.K. or France, earning $2.3 million each. On the other hand, the film wasn’t even able to crack $1 million in Spain. This is surprising, as the box office results of sports movies tend to be proportional to their popularity and this kind of auto racing is more popular internationally than it is domestically.
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November 14th, 2019
Terminator: Dark Fate will lose money. That is almost guaranteed at this point. However, it did manage to top its production budget at the worldwide box office in just its third weekend of release, meaning it is going to save face, mostly. The film earned $29.9 million in 53 markets over the weekend for totals of $150.9 million internationally and $199.4 million worldwide. This includes a $6.0 million opening in Japan; however, the film opened on Friday and not Saturday, which is the usual opening day in that market. That was still enough for first place over the two-day weekend and more than it made here, given the relative size of the two markets. It also opened in first place in Taiwan with $1.1 million over the three-day weekend and $1.4 million including Thursday. The film’s biggest market remains China, where the film earned $7.21 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $45.85 million.
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November 7th, 2019
It is not a banner week for stellar new releases. Doctor Sleep is earning good reviews, but not great reviews. Sadly, it is award-worthy compared to most of the other new releases. Last Christmas is earning mixed reviews, but that’s to be expected for a romantic comedy. The less said about Midway or Playing with Fire’s reviews, the better. This weekend last year, The Grinch opened with $67 million, which is likely more than all four new films will open with this year. In fact, last year’s number two film, Bohemian Rhapsody, will likely earn more than any one film will earn this year. 2019 is going to take a beating in the year-over-year competition.
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November 6th, 2019
Terminator: Dark Fate cracked the $100 million mark worldwide during its first weekend. $101.9 million to be more precise, giving it an early total of $123.6 million so far. Sadly, this is just $72.9 million internationally in 48 markets and that’s just not enough given the film’s production budget. Its biggest market was China, where it opened in second place with $26.84 million over the weekend for a total opening of $28.58 million. The film debuted in first place in South Korea with $7.19 million on 1,315 theaters over the weekend for a total opening of $9.79 million. Had the movie merely cost $100 million, then I would be a lot more happy with this result, but the movie cost a lot more than that and needs close to $500 million worldwide to break even any time soon. I just don’t see that happening.
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November 5th, 2019
It was a bad weekend at the box office, with Terminator: Dark Fate missing expectations by a significant degree. Harriet was able to beat expectations, but it wasn’t enough to truly compensate. Furthermore, Arctic Dogs and Motherless Brooklyn were practically non-factors at the box office. The box office did grow 9.5% from last weekend reaching $115 million. More importantly, this was 21% lower than this weekend last year. 2019’s deficit grew to 5.6% or $540 million and is now behind 2018’s pace by $9.15 billion to $9.70 billion. It is important to point out that while 2019 is being crushed by 2018, it is still on pace to be the second largest box office of all time, while its ticket sales are better than 2017’s pace, so as disappointing as the year as been so far, there are still reasons to celebrate.
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November 3rd, 2019
As expected, Terminator: Dark Fate is going to open in first place over the weekend. Unfortunately, it is failing to match even the low end of expectations with an estimate of $29 million during its opening weekend. Its reviews and its B plus from CinemaScore are not great, but they are better than this opening. The film is doing much better internationally with an estimated $$72.9 million debut, including an estimated $30 million opening in China. However, that’s not enough. The film needs close to $500 million worldwide to break even and since the only major market left to debut in is Japan, it’s not going to get there.
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November 2nd, 2019
Terminator: Dark Fate opened in first place on Friday, but it only made $10.6 million, well below expectations. Its reviews and its B plus from CinemaScore are good, but not great, meaning it won’t have the legs needed to overcome this slow start. Look for about $28 million domestically this weekend. Early reports have it performing better internationally with a likely $30 million debut in China, but again, this is below expectations and not enough given the film’s $185 million production budget.
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October 31st, 2019
It’s the first weekend of November, which is the unofficial start of both the Christmas blockbuster season and of Awards Season. There are four films hoping to take advantage of time of year to create some box office success. Of these, only Terminator: Dark Fate is expected to be a true box office hit. It will likely earn more during its opening weekend than any of the rest of the new releases earn in total. I think Harriet will do okay and could even crack $10 million during the weekend. On the other hand, Arctic Dogs still has no reviews and that’s a really bad sign. Finally there’s Motherless Brooklyn, which is opening in well under 2,000 theaters. This weekend last year, Bohemian Rhapsody opened with more than $50 million and even the high end predictions don’t have Terminator: Dark Fate earning that much. It’s going to be another bad week for 2019 in the year-over-year competition.
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October 30th, 2019
Better Days opened in first place in China with $86.11 million, which was also enough to give it first place internationally. This is an amazing start, all things considered. The movie was supposed to open in June, but the Chinese censors yanked the film at the last minute, then announced a new release day less than a week before the film opened. It is a minor miracle it was able to do this well.
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October 28th, 2019
It was a super close race for top spot on the weekend box office chart with Maleficent: Mistress of Evil and Joker neck-and-neck. In fact, they changed positions over the weekend and even reversed positions from the weekend estimates. Both of these films topped expectations by a small degree, as did most of the new releases. Unfortunately, this wasn’t enough, as the box office fell 24% from last weekend to $105 million. This is also lower than the same weekend last year, but by a tiny 0.7% margin. I’m not going to get upset about a decline this small, but it does mean 2019 has fallen further behind 2018’s pace with the deficit growing to $520 million / 5.4% at $9.00 billion to $9.52 billion.
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October 27th, 2019
Joker is returning to first place on the weekend chart with $18.9 million, which is a tiny bit ahead of expectations. However, it is in a close enough race with Maleficent: Mistress of Evil that the pair could switch places when the final numbers show up tomorrow and I wouldn’t be too surprised. Internationally, the film is earning an estimated $47.8 million on 14,000 screens in 79 markets for totals of $571.5 million internationally and $849.1 million worldwide. It is now the highest-grossing R-rated film of all time worldwide, and is on pace to become the first R-rated film to reach $1 billion globally.
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October 26th, 2019
Joker wasn’t gone from top spot for long, as it earned first place on Friday with $5.46 million, putting it on pace for close to $19 million over the weekend. This is very close to our prediction, but it is ranking better, due to marginally-weaker-than-expected competition. It also reportedly became the highest grossing R-rated movie of all time, at least worldwide. It is not going to catch up to The Passion of the Christ domestically.
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October 25th, 2019
The final weekend before Halloween is rarely a good time to release a film and the paltry selection of new releases on this list shows this year will be no different. The Current War: Director’s Cut is the only film earning good reviews, but it is opening in the fewest theaters by far. Countdown has the worst reviews, but it is a horror film opening just before Halloween, so its opening weekend could be okay. Black and Blue is in the middle in terms of reviews, theater count, and box office chances. Sadly, it is very likely all three films will open below $10 million over the weekend. There’s a slim chance none of them open in the top five. By comparison, this weekend last year saw only one wide release, Hunter Killer, which bombed. This year will be much better in terms of new releases, but none of the holdovers will match Halloween on top. 2019 does have much better depth, so I think we will get a small win in the year-over-year comparison.
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October 23rd, 2019
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil topped the international chart with $117.0 million in 56 markets during its debut weekend. This includes a $23.41 million first place debut in China, which is a little more than the original opened with there. On the other hand, the film slipped a little in Russia earning $11.1 million during its opening there, although it still managed first place in that market. On the other hand, the film really struggled in Mexico, when compared to its predecessor, earning $7.62 million, which is barely more than half of the first film’s debut there. Furthermore, the film has debuted in every international market, so it won’t be able to rely on new releases to hang around on the international chart for long.
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October 22nd, 2019
The weekend went about as well as expected, overall. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil didn’t open as well as expected, but Zombieland: Double Tap helped make up the difference. The overall box office was still down 6.5% from last weekend at $140 million; however, this was 5.3% higher than the same weekend last year and that is a much more important number. 2019 is still behind 2018’s pace by 5.3% or $500 million at $8.86 billion to $9.35 billion, but that’s not as bad as it has been this year.
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October 20th, 2019
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil did bounce back on Saturday and that is helping it earn an estimated $36.0 million during its opening weekend. It is still missing expectations, but by a more reasonable margin. Its internal multiplier is about the same as the first film managed, despite this film earning weaker reviews. Audience reactions were the same, as both films earned an A-rating from CinemaScore. As for the movies international numbers, it is pulling in $117.0 million, but it also opened everywhere, so it needed a monster start and I’m not sure this was it. The film did have a faster opening that its predecessor did in China with $22.4 million, while it cracked $10 million in Russia with an an opening of $10.7 million. The film cost $185 million to make, so this is not a fast enough start to break even in the short term, but with Disney+ starting next month, it could break even eventually.
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October 19th, 2019
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil wasn’t expected to be a monster hit, but its previews gave reason to be optimistic. That optimism is gone as a result of Friday’s estimates. The film pulled in just $12.5 million on Friday, meaning it will have to have nearly as good legs as the original had just to avoid opening below the low end of expectations. That seems unlikely, especially with its weaker reviews, although it did manage the same A rating from CinemaScore. Maybe it will really bounce back today, but we won’t really know till the weekend estimates come out tomorrow.
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October 18th, 2019
There are two wide releases this week and both of them are delayed sequels. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil is widely expected to top the box office chart this weekend, but it is also widely expected to fail to match the original by a huge margin. On the other hand, Zombieland: Double Tap will likely only manage third place, but it has a real shot at matching Zombieland, at least in terms of raw dollars. By comparison, this weekend last year saw the near record-setting debut of Halloween. (It would have set the October record, had Venom not set it two weeks earlier.) I really thought 2019 would have a chance to win in the year-over-year comparison, but unless Maleficent: Mistress of Evil really beats expectations, that’s not going to happen.
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October 18th, 2019
Parasite was the only new release in the $10,000 club, but it not only led the way over the weekend, its average of $128,072 in three theaters is the best average this year. In fact, this is not only the best average of the year, its the best average since La La Land’s debut in 2016. While Parasite was the only new release in the $10,000 club, it wasn’t the only member. Joker was in a distant second place, a very, very distant second place with an average of $12,771. Meanwhile, Célébration was very close behind with $12,678 in its lone theater. Pain and Glory remained in the $10,0000 club with an average of $11,819 and it managed this feat despite expanding its theater count to 23 theaters.
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October 17th, 2019
Like last weekend, this weekend’s international box office was toped by Joker, while the nearest competition was a Chinese film. Unlike last weekend, Joker dominated the chart earning more than the rest of the top five combined. It managed a weekend haul of $125.3 million on 24,555 screens in 79 markets for totals of $354.7 million internationally and $548.3 million worldwide. The film hit half a billion dollars worldwide in just 12 days and given its legs so far, it is on pace to reach $1 billion. Joker had very similar openings in France and Germany with $10.6 million on 630 screens and $9.8 million on 1,003 screens respectively. It goes without saying that the film was the best Warner Bros. opening of 2019 in both markets. However, the film flopped in those markets when you compare how well it is doing in the U.K. In that market, Joker was down just 22% earning $12.0 million on 1,472 screens during its sophomore stint for a running tally of $36.9 million. It has earned more in the U.K. than it has domestically, relatively speaking, and I don’t think anyone was expecting that. On the downside, the film is done with openings and it will be coasting on holdovers from now on. That’s not much of a downside.
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October 15th, 2019
Joker dominated the weekend box office, crushing expectations and setting records in the process. The Addams Family also beat expectations and this really helped 2019. Granted, the box office was still down 7.8% from last weekend to $138 million; however, this was 3.8% higher than the same weekend last year.
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October 13th, 2019
Joker is setting the record for the biggest sophomore weekend in October. It is estimated to earn $55.0 million over the weekend, which is nearly $12 million more than the current record held by Gravity. It is also nearly $20 million more than Venom earned during its second weekend of release. If this estimate holds, then Joker will have earned nearly $192.7 million after just ten days of release. Furthermore, its international numbers are just as potent with a weekend haul of $123.7 million on 24,000 screens in 79 markets giving it totals of $351.2 million internationally and $543.9 million worldwide. Given its legs so far, $1 billion worldwide seems like a safe bet. It would be nice to get a billion dollar hit from 2019 that isn’t from Disney / Marvel. The film had a pair of stunning debuts in France ($10.3 million on 630 screens) and Germany ($9.3 million on 912). However, its biggest weekend haul was in the U.K., where it was down just 22%, earning $12.0 million on 1,472 screens for a two-week total of $36.9 million.
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October 12th, 2019
Joker remained in first place earning $17 million on Friday. This is 57% lower than the film’s opening Friday, which is a really good hold and puts it on pace for $58 million over the full weekend. This would lift its running tally to nearly $200 million after just 10 days of release and might even be enough to cover the film’s entire combined production and advertising budget.
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October 11th, 2019
There are three wide releases coming out, two of which have terrible reviews, The Addams Family and Gemini Man, while the third film, Jexi, as no reviews. It’s one of those weekends. Joker is widely expected to earn first place and it should hold better than Venom did during its second weekend of release, which is great news for 2019. Furthermore, this weekend last year, there were three wide releases with a total opening of $40 million. We should be able to top that this year by a significant margin, but A Star is Born is the one reason why 2018 could win in the year-over-year competition.
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October 10th, 2019
Pain and Glory dominated the theater average earning an average of $40,022 in four theaters. Joker was next with an average of $21,994 in over 4,000 theaters. The final film in the $10,000 Club this weekend was My Country, My People with an average of $13,069 in 67 theaters. That is very impressive and could be a portent of things to come as Chinese films gain a foothold in the domestic market.
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October 10th, 2019
Joker earned top spot on the international chart, but China was the big story this weekend. The DC Comics film opened in first place with $152.2 million on 25,090 screens in 73 markets for a worldwide opening of $248.2 million. Both the film’s international debut and its worldwide debut are records for an October release. Likewise, it set the October opening weekend record in a number of major markets, including Australia, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, and Spain. South Korea was also the film’s biggest total opening with $16.18 million on 1,418 screens, including $9.58 million over the weekend. The film’s U.K. debut was better, if you just look at the three-day weekend, as it earned $15.45 million on 666 screens. It managed $13.48 million in Mexico, $7.4 million in Brazil, $6.59 million in Australia, and $4.8 million in Spain.
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October 8th, 2019
Joker easily dominated the weekend box office crushing Venom’s October record in the process. The film’s $96.20 million opening was more than 60% of the $150 million total box office earned this weekend. Furthermore, the weekend total was 64% more than last weekend, which is great news for 2019, as it has been struggling. Unfortunately, this is still 15% lower than the same weekend last year when Venom had A Star is Born opening strong as counter-programing. Year-to-date, 2019 has pulled in $8.46 billion, which is a lot, but it is 5.2% or $470 million behind 2018’s record-setting pace of $8.93 billion.
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October 6th, 2019
Joker is not only dominating the weekend, likely earning more than the rest of the films in release combined, but it will also top Venom’s October record by more than $10 million. Its domestic weekend estimate is $93.5 million, which is only dwarfed by its international debut. The film is projected to earn $140.5 million on 22,500 screens in 73 markets during its opening weekend. Highlights includes A $16.3 million debut on 1,418 screens in South Korea, which is a record opening for Warner Bros. in that market. It wasn’t able to break records in the U.K., but is still very impressive at $14.8 million on 669 screens, while it also cracked $10 million in Mexico ($13.1 million on 4,684 screens) and Russia ($10 million on 1,907.
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October 5th, 2019
Joker opened with an outstanding $39.9 million on Friday, topping the previous biggest October day record of $33.08 million set last year by Halloween. This film does have weaker reviews and only a B plus from CinemaScore, which means its word-of-mouth won’t be as great. Additionally, a larger percent of its opening day came from previews, which is another sign it likely won’t have great legs. That said, it would really have to stumble to not get at least close to $100 million over the full weekend. It is not doing quite as well internationally, but close enough that it could earn enough during its opening weekend that it will cover its entire production budget. It will break even before Halloween.
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October 4th, 2019
Joker raced into theaters with $13.3 million during its previews. This is a record for an October release, ahead of Venom’s $10 million debut last year, and not too far behind the $18.6 million R-rated record earned by Deadpool 2. The reviews have fallen to 69%, so it should have lost its Certified Fresh rating, but it is still there on Rotten Tomatoes, at least as I’m writing this.
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October 4th, 2019
Joker is the only wide release of the week and this should help it thrive at the box office. In fact, there are many who think it will top Venom’s October record. Venom set that record this weekend last year, so if it breaks the record that’s good news for 2019 in the year-over-year comparison, right? It’s not that simple, as A Star is Born also debut this weekend last year and that depth will likely prove too much for 2019 to overcome.
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October 1st, 2019
September ended on a bit of a weak note, but overall the month was excellent helping 2019 gain some ground on 2018. Can October continue this trend? There are certainly some potential box office hits coming out this month, starting with Joker, which opens the first weekend of the month and should be the biggest hit of the month. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil is aiming for $150 million and should be a hit, even if it doesn’t match the original at the box office. There are also a handful of films with an outside shot at getting to $100 million and I wouldn’t be shocked if one of them made it to that milestone. Meanwhile, last October, Venom broke records during its opening weekend, while A Star is Born had stellar legs helping both earn more than $200 million domestically. I don’t think the top two films will be able to match that this year, but we do have better depth, for the most part, so perhaps 2019 will continue its winning ways and close ground, at least by a little bit.
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September 13th, 2019
Psychological thriller starring Joaquin Phoenix opens October 4 ... Full Movie Details.
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