January 13th, 2020
The Oscar nominations were announced on Monday, and the results were... well, there were some puzzling results. Joker led the way with eleven nominations. ... A film with 69% positive reviews earned the most nominations. It’s not the worst-reviewed movie to earn a Best Picture Nomination—after all, Bohemian Rhapsody was nominated just last year. However, this film is arguably the worst-reviewed movie to ever earn the most nominations in a single year.
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December 11th, 2019
The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. It is still very early in the year and the predictive value of the Golden Globes is a little suspect, but there are still some things to learn here. (This is especially true on the TV end, as there’s talk about how strange the nominations are this year.) Marriage Story led the way with six nominations, just ahead of The Irishman and Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood, both of which picked up five nods.
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October 23rd, 2019
The Lion King is scaring away all of the competition and while the Blu-ray / 4K Ultra HD is not Pick of the Week material, there’s almost nothing else to talk about. It might be worth buying WorldEnd: What Do You Do at the End of the World? Are You Busy? Will You Save Us?: The Complete Series just because of that ridiculously long name.
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October 20th, 2019
The Lion King is one of the biggest hits of the year and one of only two films to top $1 billion internationally. It is also a remake of the 1994 animated classic of the same name and is widely considered part of the “Live-Action Disney remake” trend, although it is not live-action, but a photo-realistic, digitally-animated film. Is this enough to set it apart from the original? Or was photo-realism a mistake?
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October 10th, 2019
It’s another week with a monster hit and nearly nothing else. Fortunately, that monster hit is Toy Story 4, which is easily the Pick of the Week and would be during all but the best weeks of the year. Midsommar comes close to being a contender for Pick of the Week, but the extras are well below average, even compared to a limited release.
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September 26th, 2019
The last weekend of September has been a great week to release a second-tier animated film and there have been several $100 million hits released this week in the past. This year, Abominable is hoping to succeed in this role. It does have a lot going for it, including no competition, direct or otherwise, and reviews that are, while not spectacular, certainly a selling point. On the other hand, the buzz hasn’t grown the way it should. This weekend last year, Night School led the way with Smallfoot having a strong second place opening. Unfortunately, it looks like 2019’s small winning streak will come to an end, because it is unlikely Abominable will match last year’s number one film. It might not even match last year’s second place film.
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September 17th, 2019
It: Chapter Two and Hustlers both topped expectations by large margins over the weekend and that helped the overall box office earn $110 million. Granted, this is 20% lower than last weekend; however, this was also 2.2% higher than the same weekend last year and that is by far the more important detail. 2019 is still behind 2018, but the gap closed by a little bit and is now at 5.9% or $500 million at $7.98 billion to $8.48 billion. Fortunately, the international box office is doing better and overall 2019 is merely mediocre and it still has time to improve.
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September 15th, 2019
It is shaping up to be a great weekend at the box office with both Hustlers and It: Chapter Two topping expectations. It: Chapter Two is going to repeat on top, with an estimated sophomore stint of $40.74 million for a running tally of $153.80 million. This represents a 55% decline, which is certainly fantastic for a horror sequel. It still likely means $250 million domestically is out of the question, but even $200 million is amazing for a movie that cost less than $70 million to make. Internationally, the film pulled in another $47 million in 78 markets for a two-week total of $169.5 million. It has already made over $300 million worldwide, which might be enough to break even, depending on its advertising budget and exact share of the box office. If not, it will break even very shortly.
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September 14th, 2019
Hustlers did surprisingly well to earn first place on Friday with an estimated $13.1 million. This puts it on pace for $32 million over the full weekend, which is more than enough for the biggest opening in STX Entertainment’s history and the biggest live-action opening in Jennifer Lopez’s career. It is not that far behind Crazy Rich Asians’ five-day opening and will also be Constance Wu’s best opening. There’s more good news: The film’s reviews are the best in the top ten at 87% positive and STX Entertainment has tended to have a lot of success giving their films long legs. The Bad Moms franchise is evidence of that. On the downside, the movie only managed a B minus from CinemaScore, but it is a dark comedy and those can be divisive. Additionally, while it earned first place on Friday, it won’t stay there for long.
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September 12th, 2019
It: Chapter Two matched its domestic opening weekend internationally, earning $94.0 million on 26,790 screens in 75 markets over the weekend. Unlike the film’s domestic debut, its international opening was close to on par with the first It’s debut, in local currencies not counting inflation. In fact, Chapter Two had a faster start in Russia earning $9.20 million to $7.28 million for its predecessor. The film had nearly identical openings in both Mexico ($9.14 million) and in the U.K. ($9.06 million). The film opens in France this weekend, while it doesn’t finish off its international run until it debuts in Japan in November.
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September 10th, 2019
It: Chapter Two dominated the box office by almost as large a margin as expected. It certainly did well enough that I’m considering it a victory. It earned $91.06 million over the weekend, which is almost exactly what the total box office made last weekend. More importantly, it is almost as much as the top five made this weekend last year, giving the weekend box office a massive increase of 48% from last weekend to $136 million and more importantly, this was 12% more than the same weekend last year. 2019 is still behind 2018 by a massive margin of $500 million or 6.0% at $7.83 billion to $8.33 billion. However, we did catch up to 2017’s ticket sales pace, so as long as we can maintain this pace for the rest of the year, it won’t look like a disaster at the end of the year.
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September 8th, 2019
It: Chapter Two is missing expectations with an estimated opening weekend of $91.0 million. However, while this is 10% lower than predicted, it is still more than enough to earn second place on the September chart. In fact, it is nearly 70% higher than the third biggest September debut of all time, The Nun, which opened this weekend last year. That’s really going to help the year-over-year comparison. As for the film’s long-range chances, they are mixed. Horror movies rarely have long legs and this is also true of sequels, so horror sequels almost never do well long-term. Additionally, this film’s reviews are much weaker than the first film’s reviews, but on the positive side, it did match its predecessor when it came to the CinemaScore, as both earned B plus ratings.
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September 7th, 2019
It: Chapter Two isn’t living up to predictions or its predecessor, but it is still on pace to become one of the best September debuts of all time. The film pulled in $37.4 million on Friday, putting it on pace for just over $90 million over the full weekend. It is going to have shorter legs that the original had, thanks in part to the Sequel Effect, but also due to its weaker reviews. On the positive side, it matched the original’s B plus from CinemaScore, so that’s a good sign.
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September 5th, 2019
It’s going to be a short prediction column, because there’s not much to talk about. It: Chapter Two is the only wide release of the week and there weren’t even any wide releases last weekend to give It any real competition. In fact, two of the likely top five films have already been in theaters for more than a month. last year, The Nun led the way with $53.81 million. It: Chapter Two could double that during its opening weekend.
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September 4th, 2019
Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw had a very steep decline in China, but still managed to earn first place on the international chart with $37.9 million in 68 markets over the weekend for totals of $528.7 million internationally and $$687.9 million worldwide. The film plummeted 72% during its second weekend in China earning $27.65 million for a two-week total of $170.36 million. This drop-off is extreme, even for China. However, it doesn’t matter. The movie will hit $200 million in that market and $700 million worldwide, which is more than enough to break even and get yet another installment in the franchise.
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September 4th, 2019
There were no new wide releases this past weekend and unfortunately, the holdovers weren’t able to take advantage. Angel Has Fallen remained on top, but it did so with only $11.80 million over the three-day weekend. This wasn’t enough to match expectations or last year’s number one film, Crazy Rich Asians. The overall box office fell 18% from last weekend, falling to $89 million. Worse still, this is 10% lower than this weekend last year, putting 2019 behind 2018 by a 6.2% or $510 million at $7.64 billion to $8.15 billion. On the positive note, this is likely the low point of the year and the Fall looks a lot stronger, starting with It: Chapter Two this coming weekend.
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September 1st, 2019
There were no wide releases this weekend, so I really thought the holdovers would hold on a lot better than they did. According to estimates, Angel Has Fallen has fallen 46% during its second weekend of release to $11.58 million and is projected to earn $15 million over the four-day weekend. A 46% sophomore stint decline would have been great, if this weren’t a holiday weekend. As it is, it’s a little disappointing, but the film will still do well enough to earn a profit. ... “Profitable disappointment.” How many times can that phrase be used this year?
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August 31st, 2019
There were no new wide releases on Friday, and sadly the holdovers didn’t thrive as a result. It’s going to be a brutal weekend at the box office. Angel Has Fallen topped the chart on Friday, but wasn’t able to match expectations with $2.9 million. That said, it is still on pace for $15 million over the full four-day weekend for a two-week total of $44 million, which is a good result for this time of year.
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August 29th, 2019
It’s the final weekend of the summer, Labor Day weekend. Officially it is the final weekend of the summer, but if you’ve been paying attention to the box office, then you know summer really ended with the release of Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw weeks ago. This long weekend, movie studios have just given up and there are no wide, or even semi-wide releases to talk about. This means the top five will look about the same as it did last weekend with Angel Has Fallen on top, while some of the holdovers, specifically Good Boys and The Lion King, should take advantage of the lack of competition. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, Crazy Rich Asians remained the top film at the box office and will likely beat any of this week’s offerings. In fact, none of the films playing this year will earn as much over four days as Crazy Rich Asians did over three.
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August 28th, 2019
Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw roared back into first place on the international chart earning $119.4 million in 68 markets for totals of $440.4 million internationally and $588.1 million worldwide. This includes a first place, three-day $99.08 million debut in China, for a total opening in the market of $103.06 million. Granted, films tend to have short legs in China, but a start like this will still give the film an easy time reaching $700 million worldwide, which is enough to be a financial success, even if it doesn’t match the previous installments in the franchise.
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August 27th, 2019
Angel Has Fallen led the way at the weekend with $21.38 million. There were some other pleasant surprises in the top ten and this helped the overall box office to a surprise win. It was down 9.6% from last weekend to $108 million; however, this was 5.6% higher than the same weekend last year and we haven’t had many reasons to celebrate in the year-over-year competition, so let’s focus on that. Year-to-date, 2019 is still behind 2018 and is so by nearly identical margins as last weekend at 6.3% or $500 million. This is still a deep hole to try and climb out of, especially since there are only four months left in the year, and I will be happy if we can just cut that gap in half by the end of the year.
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August 25th, 2019
There is some good news to talk about and that’s been depressingly rare this year. Angel Has Fallen is beating expectations with an estimated opening of $21.25 million. This opening is just behind London Has Fallen’s debut. Additionally, Angel has better reviews and matched the previous film’s A minus from CinemaScore, so it should have similar legs. It is too soon to tell how it will do internationally, but given the franchise’s performance so far, I remain optimistic.
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August 24th, 2019
Angel Has Fallen earned an estimated $7.9 million on Friday. Amazingly, this is an improvement over the $7.51 million earned by London has Fallen during its opening day. Most people, myself included, assumed this film would suffer a deep decline. This film also earned better reviews, while both films earned an A minus from CinemaScore. On the other hand, the film did earn less during the 24-hour Friday period, so that suggests a slightly smaller opening weekend. Even so, it will beat our prediction with just over $21 million.
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August 22nd, 2019
There are three wide releases this week, but only one of them, Angel Has Fallen, is widely expected to do anything at the box office. Overcomer is a faith-based film and those are a risk at the box office, but the people behind this one do have a good track record. Finally there’s Ready or Not, the widest ever release for Fox Searchlight and its reviews are easily the best of the week, but the buzz suggests that won’t be enough to thrive. This weekend last year, Crazy Rich Asians dipped just 6% earning just over $24 million. No film is going to match that figure this week. There’s a chance all three wide releases won’t match that figure this week, combined.
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August 21st, 2019
Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood started its international run in earnest with $48.53 million over the three-day weekend, $55.22 million including previews and weekdays. It was playing on 10,054 screens in 59 markets and has a running tally of $65.44 million after two weeks of release. Its biggest market of the weekend was either France or the U.K., depending on how you look at it. In the former, it earned first place with $7.08 million on 683 screens. It also opened in first place in the latter with $6.22 million on 708 screens over the weekend, and had a total opening of $9.16 million. It also had strong openings in Germany ($5.06 million on 820 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.82 million); Australia ($4.52 million on 299 screens); and Spain ($2.41 million on 869 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.63 million).
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August 20th, 2019
It’s the dog days of summer and Good Boys was the only new release with an impressive debut of $21.40 million, while The Angry Birds Movie 2’s $16.09 million six-day debut isn’t a bad start for this time of year. There were a few holdovers to earn more than $10 million over the weekend, so the overall box office wasn’t a disaster, just a disappointment down 9.5% from last weekend to $119 million. More importantly, this is 7.7% lower the the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2019 has pulled in $7.35 billion, but this is 6.3% or $490 million behind last year’s pace. At this point, I don’t think it is possible for 2019 to catch up, but hopefully it can put together a strong last few months to at least save face. Additionally, the international box office is doing better, so worldwide it is close to a wash.
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August 18th, 2019
Good Boys and Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw are topping the weekend box office chart, so while the overall box office isn’t doing well, Universal is having a great weekend. Good Boys is leading the way with $21.0 million, which is not only better than our predictions, but better than Universal’s projections based on Friday’s estimates. It’s not all rosy, as the film’s reviews and its B plus from CinemaScore don’t suggest really long legs, while this is not the type of film to do well internationally. In fact, it is only pulling in $2.1 million during its opening weekend overseas, including $1.0 million in the U.K.
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August 17th, 2019
Good Boys earned first place on the Friday chart with $8.31 million. Universal is projecting a $20.8 million opening weekend based on this start, which would give the film a rather low internal multiplier. This is due to its reviews and its mere B plus from CinemaScore, neither of which are bad, but they are not great either. It would still be the fastest opening for a comedy all year and this is the first R-rated comedy to top the chart since The Boss debuted more than three years ago. On the one hand, this is great news for Good Boys. On the other hand, what the hell happened to the genre? R-rated comedies used to regularly earn $100 million or more at the box office.
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August 15th, 2019
Like last weekend, there are five wide releases coming out this weekend, and again, this is just too many. I can’t imagine all of them will find an audience. In fact, I would be less surprised if none of them really found an audience and Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw remained in first place, than if all of them found an audience. The Angry Birds Movie 2 is the biggest of the new releases, but it debuted on Tuesday, so its demand will be deflated by the weekend. Good Boys has deceptively good reviews, but the buzz isn’t where it should be. 47 Meters Down: Uncaged is a horror film entering a too-crowded market. Meanwhile, both Blinded By the Light and Where’d You Go, Bernadette? will be lucky to avoid the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Crazy Rich Asians opened. It wasn’t a monster hit out of the gate, but it was a bigger hit than anything opening this weekend.
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August 14th, 2019
Nezha remains the top draw in its native China and internationally. This weekend, it pulled in $68.97 million for a total of $512.19 million after nearly four full weeks of release. This doesn’t just make the movie the highest-grossing animated film in China, it more than doubles the previous record set by Zootopia. Additionally, it has entered the top five all-time in China, in local currencies, and will soon climb into fourth place over Operation Red Sea.
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August 12th, 2019
The weekend box office was mediocre with many of the new releases missing expectations, and some of them had low expectations to begin with. Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw was able to remain in first place, but on the low end of expectations, leaving Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark as the biggest positive news of the weekend. Overall, the weekend box office was 11% lower than last weekend at $132 million. Worse still, this is 10% lower than the same weekend last year, leaving 2019 further behind last year’s pace. 2019 is now behind 2018 by 6.2% or $480 million at $7.16 billion to $7.64 billion.
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August 11th, 2019
August 10th, 2019
Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark led the way on Friday with $7.86 million. The film’s reviews are Certified Fresh at 80% positive, but it only managed a C from CinemaScore. To be fair, this isn’t a bad result for a horror film, but it does mean it likely won’t have great legs and will sink into second place over the full weekend. It will still beat our prediction and could even become CBS Films’ best opening of all time. Right now, it is on pace to come close to The Woman in Black’s current record with about $20 million during the opening weekend. It would be ironic is CBS Films set the company record now, as it is ceasing theatrical releases and instead shifting towards streaming content.
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August 8th, 2019
There are five wide or semi-wide releases coming out this weekend, which is just too many and practically guarantees at least one of them will flop at the box office. Of these films, Dora and the Lost City of Gold is the only one expected to compete for first place, while Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark should do well as a low-budget horror movie. Unfortunately, The Kitchen and The Art of Racing in the Rain are not connecting with critics and that will likely keep them out of the top five. Finally, Brian Banks is opening in just 1,240 theaters and that could keep it out of the top ten. This weekend last year, The Meg opened with $45 million. No film playing this weekend will match that and I don’t think this year’s depth is going to compensate, meaning we are going to lose in the year-over-year competition yet again.
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August 8th, 2019
Nezha continued to grow in China, earning $128.49 million over the weekend, which was not only the best film in China, but the biggest movie internationally. Furthermore, the film has earned $342.33 million, putting it ahead of Zootopia as the biggest animated film of all time in that market. And it didn’t just tiptoe ahead of the competition. Nezha is over $100 million above Zootopia in China. I really hope it gets a release here, as not enough Chinese movies are seen outside of Asia.
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August 7th, 2019
It was a mixed weekend at the box office with Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw missing lofty expectations by a huge margin and this left the box office 8.4% lower than last weekend at $149 million. More importantly, this was 6.9% higher than the same weekend last year. 2019 closed the gap between it and last year a little bit and it is now down by 6.2% or $460 million at $6.96 billion to $7.42 billion. Unfortunately, we really needed a much faster start from Hobbs and Shaw to have a good month, so this might be as good as it gets until September.
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August 4th, 2019
Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw missed even the low end of predictions with an estimated opening weekend of just $60.8 million. This is not a good start for a film that cost $200 million to make. Additionally, its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore do not suggest long enough legs to make up for this opening. Fortunately, the film is doing a lot better internationally with an estimated opening of $120 million in 63 markets. Furthermore, this number doesn’t include China, because the film doesn’t open there until the end of the month. (It has also yet to open in France, Italy, and Japan, but it will earn more in China than those three markets combined.) The film is opening well behind The Fate of the Furious in most markets, including Russia where it managed $8.20 million on 1,766 screens, compared to $14.26 million on 1,470 screens for the previous film. It was even worse in the U.K. at $7.85 million in 610 theaters vs. $17.58 million on 572. Overall, the film is more in line with Fast Five than the other recent films in the franchise. This is still enough to earn a profit, especially if it does well in China, but the spin-off won’t replace the main films in the Fast and the Furious franchise like I thought it had a chance of doing.
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August 3rd, 2019
Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw is going to miss predictions, but it did bounce back from weak previews with $23.72 million on Friday. This is higher than Mission: Impossible—Fallout managed during its opening day, despite worse preview numbers. This bodes well for the film’s legs. Its reviews are slightly better than the previous installment in the Fast and the Furious franchise, while its A minus from CinemaScore is a little weaker. Universal is projecting a $60 million opening weekend after this result, but studios tend to underestimate these things so it looks like their movies over-performed in the end, so I think $61 million or $62 million is more likely.
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August 1st, 2019
It’s the first weekend of August and we have the last potential monster hit of the summer debuting. Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw is the first spin-off in the Fast and the Furious franchise. A lot of people think it will perform weaker at the box office than the other recent films in the franchise, but I think they are underestimating the box office appeal of Dwayne Johnson. Holdovers will be led by The Lion King and Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, both of which should still be major factors at the box office. This weekend last year, Mission: Impossible—Fallout and Christopher Robin combined for just under $60 million. Even throwing in The Spy Who Dumped Me and the top three barely pass $70 million. Hobbs and Shaw should earn more than that by itself, giving 2018 a very strong win in the year-over-year competition.
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July 31st, 2019
The Lion King remained in first place on the overall chart and the theater average chart. It managed an average of $16,216 on the latter, putting it ahead of Honeyland, which landed in second place with an average of $15,000 in two theaters. The Farewell remained in the $10,000 club with an average of $11,246 in 135 theaters. Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood was the final film in the $10,000 club with an average of $11,228.
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July 31st, 2019
The Lion King remained in first place on the international chart earning $142.8 million in 53 markets for totals of $611.9 million internationally and $962.7 million worldwide. The film’s only opening this weekend was in Hong Kong, where it earned $2.0 million opening in first place. The film has yet to open in Italy and Japan, so it will have no trouble getting to $1 billion before it finishes its international run.
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July 30th, 2019
It was a mixed weekend at the box office with Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood becoming Quentin Tarantino’s biggest opening film in his career, but The Lion King falling much faster than expected. The overall box office was down 38% from last weekend, hitting $162 million. However, this was 4.1% more than the same weekend last year and that’s a much more important result. 2019 is still behind 2018 by a 6.4% or $460 million margin at $6.73 billion to $7.19 billion, but at this point, I will celebrate any victory, no matter how small.
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July 28th, 2019
As expected, The Lion King is easily topping the box office chart this weekend. Unfortunately, it is doing so despite falling much faster than expected, down 61% to an estimated $75.52 million during its third weekend of release for a running tally of $350.78 million. Fortunately, it could still be on pace to reach $500 million domestically, while it earned $142.8 million internationally for totals of $611.9 million internationally and $962.7 million worldwide. It will reach $1 billion shortly, making it yet another profitable disappointment. We’ve had too many of those this year, but I guess it is better than having these films lose money.
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July 27th, 2019
The Lion King had a decidedly un-family-friendly fall on Friday, earning $22.30 million. This is 71% lower than the film’s opening Friday and this is a terrible result for a family film. The movie will bounce back over the rest of the weekend, but a 60% decline to about $76 million is much lower than our prediction. Granted, the movie will still make more than enough money to break even, but it will be yet another profitable disappointment. We’ve had far too many of those and not enough films matching their potential at the box office this year.
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July 25th, 2019
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood is Quentin Tarantino’s first film in four years and it is generating a ton of buzz. However, it is going up against The Lion King, which set records last weekend and has a slim chance at $100 million this weekend. Fortunately, the two films don’t share much of their respective target audiences, so they shouldn’t cannibalize each other at the box office too much. As a result, 2019 should easily beat the same weekend last year in the year-over-year competition. It is too soon to get excited about a potential comeback, but any victory is worth celebrating when you are this far behind.
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July 25th, 2019
The Lion King not only earned first place on the overall chart, but it topped the theater average chart with an average of $40,586. Last week’s winner, The Farewell, landed in second place with an average of $32,723. David Crosby: Remember My Name was the final film in the $10,000 club earning an average of $10,871 in four theaters.
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July 24th, 2019
After an early start in China, The Lion King expanded nearly worldwide earning $269.4 million in 52 markets for two-week totals of $346.0 million internationally and $537.8 million worldwide. The film’s best new market was the U.K. at $20.84 million in 713 theaters, but France wasn’t too far behind at $19.6 million. It also had stellar starts in Mexico ($18.43 million) and Brazil ($17.9 million), as well as is in Russia ($17.06 million). Other major markets include Australia where it earned with $14.46 million over the weekend for a total opening of $17.43 million and in South Korea with $13.44 million over the weekend for a total opening of $17.45 million. The film has yet to open in Japan and Italy and it will be over $1 billion before it gets there.
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July 23rd, 2019
The Lion King finished on the very high end of expectations opening with $191.77 million topping the previous July weekend record by well over $20 million. It also made more than the rest of the weekend box office combined, as the total weekend haul was $263 million. In fact, The Lion King made more than the entire box office made last weekend ($126 million) and this weekend last year ($172 million). Needless to say, there was strong growth both week-over-week at 109% and year-over-year at 53%. Granted, 2019 is still well back from 2018’s pace, down 7.1% or $490 million at $6.44 billion compared to $6.93 billion, but at least that gap is down significantly from where it was last week.
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July 21st, 2019
The Lion King is setting records this weekend with a projected opening of $185.0 million, destroying the previous July weekend record of $169.19 million, set by Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II. This is also the biggest opening for an animated film and biggest opening of any of Disney’s “live-action” remakes. Additionally, not only is the film getting off to a faster than expected start, it should have good legs. Granted, its reviews are mixed, but it is a family film and it did earn an A from CinemaScore, so that should help its longevity. Additionally, the next family film is Dora and the Lost City of Gold, which has only about a 50/50 chance of reaching $100 million in total. As for the film’s international numbers, it added $269.4 million in 52 markets to its early international total, which now sits at $346.0 million, while its worldwide total is already $531.0 million. The film didn’t set many records internationally, but it is earning the second-biggest opening weekend in Brazil with $17.9 million and in Russia at $16.7 million. This would have looked a lot more impressive had Endgame hadn’t set so many records earlier this year, but more on that in a bit.
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July 20th, 2019
The Lion King was widely expected to be a monster hit; however, this year there have been countless potential monster hits that have missed expectations. There have been so many that I deemed it wise to be a little more pessimistic in my predictions to prevent being disappointed yet again. Turns out I didn’t need to worry, as the film earned $78 million on Friday. It wasn’t able to match the record for biggest July day; however, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II was the epitome of a Fanboy Film and had very short legs in theaters. The Lion King should have longer legs. Granted, its reviews won’t help, but it did earn an A from CinemaScore, so it is clear its target audience are a lot happier with the film. I still don’t think the legs will be great, but it should top the July weekend record with around $180 million. The industry needed this good news, and it doesn’t end there, as every other film in the top five either matched or exceeded expectations.
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July 19th, 2019
The Lion King broke records for the biggest previews earning $23 million on Thursday. This is the best for a so-called live-action Disney remake topping Beauty and the Beast’s previous record of $16.3 million. This is also the biggest preview for an animated film overtaking Incredibles 2’s previous record of $18.5 million. This should put it on pace to have the biggest opening weekend in July, a record that is currently held by Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II at $169.19 million. The ability to get there depends on if the audiences like the movie more than the critics did. We will know tomorrow when the CinemaScore is released.
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July 18th, 2019
The Lion King has the weekend to itself and it is widely expected to have one of the biggest openings of the year. This is true, despite its mixed reviews. In fact, it should earn more during its opening day than the rest of the top five will earn combined over the full weekend. It should also easily earn more than the top five earned this weekend last year, giving 2019 a rare win in the year-over-year competition.
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July 18th, 2019
Spider-Man: Far from Home ended its international run by opening in Italy this past weekend and this helped it remain in top spot on the international chart. Overall, the film pulled in $97.50 million on 30,559 screens in 86 markets for totals of $569.88 million internationally and $844.47 million worldwide. The film earned first place in Italy with $4.38 million on 829 screens over the weekend for a four-day opening of $6.08 million. If we compare just the three-day weekend, which is unfair to Far From Home, this result is still 45% more than Homecoming’s debut in that market. The film’s top holdover was South Korea, where it remained in first place with $9.80 million on 1,708 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $48.97 million. China wasn’t too far behind with $9.61 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $192.18 million. The film has very likely overtaken Homecoming at the global box office by the time you read this and could top $1 billion this weekend, assuming The Lion King doesn’t take too big a bite out of Far from Home’s box office numbers.
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July 16th, 2019
It was a mixed weekend at the box office. On the one hand, nearly every film in the top five topped expectations, albeit by small margins in most cases. This includes Spider-Man: Far From Home, which led the way with $45.35 million over the weekend. On the other hand, we still saw a serious decline with the overall box office down 31% from last weekend to $126 million. Worse still, this was 24% lower than the same weekend last year and this left 2019 further behind last year’s pace. It is now behind 2018 by 8.6% or $570 million at $6.10 billion to $6.67 billion.
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July 14th, 2019
As expected, Spider-Man: Far From Home is going to remain in first place at the box office this weekend. Fortunately for the box office as a whole, it is beating expectations in terms of dollars with an estimated haul of $45.3 million, which would give is a two-week total of $274.5 million. Internationally, the film is earning $100 million in 67 markets for totals of $573 million internationally and $847 million worldwide. It opened in first place in Italy over the weekend with $6.1 million. This is the film’s final market, but even coasting on holdovers won’t stop it from reaching $1 billion worldwide.
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July 1st, 2019
June was a disaster, with no pleasant surprises for the entire month, and a boatload of disappointments. In fact, one could argue Aladdin was the biggest hit of the month, despite it opening in May. Toy Story 4 is the biggest hit released in June, but it still missed expectations by a huge margin. In fact, so many films missed expectations by huge margins I’m rethinking my predictions for July. I still think there will be monster hits and I seriously doubt Spider-Man: Far from Home and The Lion King will bomb, but I also don’t think they will reach the heights some of the tracking data suggests they will. The only other film that has a shot at $100 million is Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, but the overall box office is so weak that I’m no longer sure it will get there. Meanwhile, last July wasn’t as strong on top with just two films topping $200 million, Mission: Impossible - Fallout and Ant-Man and the Wasp, neither of which came close to $300 million. However, last year had a lot better depth and I think that could result in 2019 merely breaking even in the year-over-year competition.
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April 10th, 2019
Adventure with the voices of Donald Glover, Beyoncé, and James Earl Jones opens July 19 ... Full Movie Details.
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November 23rd, 2018
Adventure with the voices of Donald Glover, Beyoncé, and James Earl Jones opens July 19, 2019 ... Full Movie Details.
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