April 17th, 2022
Reports of the death of the Harry Potter franchise will most likely be greatly exaggerated in the coming days, but there’s no denying that Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore is doing far worse than Warner Bros. would have hoped for when the first three films in the Fantastic Beasts franchise were announced back in October, 2014. Seven and half years is a long time in the film business, and the disruption caused by the pandemic did nothing to help this film. However, in the context of the performance of the previous two films in the franchise and the changes to the moviegoing audience caused by the pandemic, its opening, which Warner Bros. projects at $43 million as of this morning, is actually not far behind what our model predicted.
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April 15th, 2022
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore posted $6 million in preview earnings last night, a figure that’s remarkably close to the $6.25 million Sonic the Hedgehog 2 made from previews last week. The 11th outing from the Harry Potter franchise is unlikely to come close to Sonic’s $72-million opening though, with our model expecting something in the high $40-millions.
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August 20th, 2020
The slow march to recovery at the box office continued in international markets at the weekend as theaters opened up and moviegoers continued to return. Progress is being slowed by the lack of new films, particularly from US studios, but catalog titles are filling the void. China took advantage of an opportunity to release a movie from the Harry Potter archive for the first time in the territory, and Australian film fans got a chance to enjoy some original Star Wars. Some local films are also doing well, partly thanks to the lack of competition.
Here’s a round-up of what’s playing around the world, and how markets are recovering.
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March 13th, 2019
It’s not a good week on the home market. There are some big releases, like Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, but none of them are good. There are a couple of contenders for Pick of the Week, but the The Adventures of Rocky and Bullwinkle and Friends: The Complete Series DVD is a re-release at a more reasonable price, while it is worth waiting to get the The Miseducation of Cameron Post: Special Edition Blu-ray. In the end, I went with a late screener, The Forbidden Photos Of A Lady Above Suspicion: Collector’s Edition Blu-ray. It is definitely the best bet for fans of Giallo and / or Film Noir.
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December 2nd, 2018
Ralph Breaks the Internet will retain top spot on the weekend box office chart with an estimated $25.8 million for a two-week total of $119.3 million. Granted, this is lower than we predicted, but not so much lower than anyone at Disney should be panicking. Internationally, the film added an estimated $33.7 million in 27 markets, lifting its international total to $87.7 million after two weeks of release. Its only major market opening of the weekend was the U.K. where it reportedly earned $5.2 million. This is less than Wreck-It Ralph opened with, but that film debuted during the school holidays, so it got a boost. Ralph Breaks the Internet should have longer than average legs thanks to Christmas, but I don’t think it will match its predecessor in this market.
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November 27th, 2018
The weekend box office was more lucrative than predicted with both Ralph Breaks the Internet and Creed II breaking records. Depending on how technical you want to be. Ralph Breaks the Internet led the way with $55.67 million over the three-day weekend and $84.47 million over five. This is technically the record for biggest Thanksgiving opening, as Frozen had a prestige opening the weekend before and only expanded wide on Thanksgiving. Nearly every other film on this week’s list also topped predictions helping this weekend to rise 26% from last weekend hitting $216 million over the three-day period. This was also 15% higher than the same weekend last year, which is a more important result. I was really expecting 2018’s lead over 2017 to be down significantly from its peak; however, instead it has stretched its lead to $1.04 billion or 11% at $10.53 billion to $9.49 billion.
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November 23rd, 2018
Yesterday was Thanksgiving and some studios were closed for the day, but we have a full list of box office numbers today. Ralph Breaks the Internet continued to lead the way at the box office with $10.3 million on Thursday for a two-day total of $28.8 million. The film is still well above Coco and Moana’s two-day pace, but it fell 44% from its Wednesday debut, which is a sharper decline than either of those two films suffered. It is on pace to dominate the five-day weekend with $85 million, which is below yesterday’s pace and below Frozen’s record-setting wide expansion, but I can’t imagine there are many people at Disney that are disappointed with this result. The film’s reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore, plus its family friendly target audience should help it last in theaters till the new year and it should be profitable enough that the studio will want to turn the franchise into a trilogy.
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November 22nd, 2018
It’s Thanksgiving long weekend, which means many studios are closed and are not reporting official numbers. However, one of the studios that is reporting numbers is Disney and they are reporting record-breaking numbers. Ralph Breaks the Internet earned $18.5 million on Wednesday, which is significantly more than either Coco or Moana managed the previous two years. In fact, this is more than Frozen managed during its record-breaking wide expansion back in 2013. This film’s reviews are great and it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, so it should have good legs and could top Frozen’s $93.59 million five-day opening. In fact, some studios think it has a real chance of $100 million during its five-day opening. I’m not that bullish, but even if it only earns $90 million over five-days, it will still be a monster hit and way more than we predicted.
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November 20th, 2018
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald started its international run with $191.5 million on 50,865 screens in 79 markets for a worldwide debut of $253.7 million. Its largest opening was in China, but it had to settle for second place there with $36.68 million on 22,008 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $37.53 million. It had more impressive debuts in the U.K. ($16.3 million on 1,823 screens) and in Russia ($12.36 million on 1,623). The film had the best opening in the Harry Potter franchise in 21 markets, but overall, it was only 3% ahead of Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them in the same markets. Its much weaker reviews will likely lead to shorter legs, but even so, it should still have no problem getting to $600 million worldwide and becoming Warner Bros.’ biggest hit of the year. If the next installment in the franchise falls just as much, then the studio will have reason to be concerned.
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November 19th, 2018
As expected, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald topped the weekend box office chart; however, it failed to meet expectations by about 10%. Additionally, neither Instant Family nor Widows matched expectations and this hurt the overall box office, which fell 2.9% from last weekend to $172 million. More importantly, this is 14% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2018 has reached $10 billion and now has a running tally of $10.18 billion. This is 11% or $1.01 billion ahead of last year’s pace.
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November 16th, 2018
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald earned $9.1 million during previews on Thursday, which is better than Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them managed. Granted, it was better by mere percentage points, as that earlier film earned $8.75 million during its previews. Where it goes from here is a bit of a mystery. On the one hand, its reviews are much worse than the previous installment’s reviews were and it is a sequel. Both of those facts suggest shorter legs. However, the gap between Fantastic Beasts and the last original Harry Potter film may have resulted in a much more front-loaded run, so The Crimes of Grindelwald could benefit from that. As always, we will know better this time tomorrow when Friday estimates are out.
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November 15th, 2018
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald is the latest installment in the Harry Potter franchise, but sadly, its reviews are, by far, the worst in the franchise. It should still have no trouble earning first place and will very likely break even just on its international numbers, but this is still troubling for its future. The second biggest release of the week is Instant Family and its reviews are good, but not great. They are certainly fine for a family comedy. Widows is the best-reviewed new release, but its buzz is quiet enough that it will barely finish in the top five. Meanwhile, A Private War is expanding nationwide and that could help it earn a spot in the top ten, but I wouldn’t bet on it. This weekend last year, Justice League opened with $93.84 million, while Wonder debuted in second place with $27.55 million. Add in The Star’s $9.81 million opening and the three wide releases pulled in $130 million. There’s no way the new releases this year will match that and 2018 will likely lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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November 1st, 2018
October continued 2018’s phenomenal box office run, for the most part. There were a couple of films that missed expectations by $10 million or more, but on the other hand, Vemon and Halloween were smash hits and are now the first and second biggest October debuts of all time. Furthermore, 2018’s lead over 2017 is, as I’m writing this, just shy of $1 billion and if 2018 can maintain this lead, it will be one of the biggest year-over-year increases of all time. It won’t. The fun times end now. Why is that? Last November was amazing. There were only eight wide releases, but six of them earned more than $100 million. Three of those hit $200 million, including Thor: Ragnarok, which earned over $300 million. This year, there are a lot more movies opening in November, but it is a case of quantity over quality. No movie is expected to come close to $300 million and it would take a bit of luck just to have five $100 million hits. The film I’m looking forward to the most is Ralph Breaks the Internet, while it, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, and Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald are all aiming for $200 million this month. Fortunately, even if 2018 is behind 2017’s pace by around $300 million, 2018 has built up such a large lead that it should still go into December with an insurmountable lead at the box office.
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April 22nd, 2018
Mary and the Witch’s Flower is the latest release from GKIDS. GKIDS is the only distributor that can routinely release animated films in limited release and have them do well at the box office. For example, this film earned over $2 million domestically. The film doesn’t come out on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack until May the 1st, but the screener arrived early and I was able to get to the review this weekend. Is it worth waiting for?
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February 8th, 2018
This weekend the Fifty Shades franchise is expected to surpass $1 billion in total worldwide box office with the release of the final installment, Fifty Shades Freed. All that income comes from films with an estimated combined budget for all three films of $150 million. The last time Hollywood saw this kind of success with an erotic drama/thriller, it created an entire subgenre that ate its way all through the 90s. Yet, after this year, it seems Valentine’s Day weekend will be left without a Fifty Shades replacement. So why the hesitancy from Hollywood to step up to the challenge this time?
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November 26th, 2017
Coco will easily top the box office chart this Thanksgiving weekend, with Disney projecting a $71 million 5-day opening, including $49 million from Friday to Sunday. That’s the fourth-best Thanksgiving opening of all time, behind Frozen ($94 million), Moana ($82 million), and Toy Story 2 ($80 million). In all, Disney lays claim to 10 of the top 11 opening weekend’s over this holiday period, although, to be fair, the Hunger Games and Harry Potter franchises both claim several spots in the higher reaches of the Thanksgiving weekend record chart, but were just playing in their second weekend, rather than opening.
Nit-picking aside, it’s a great weekend for Coco.
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November 8th, 2017
It is not a particularly strong week on the home market. Cars 3 is the biggest new release, but it is far from the best. There were not a lot of contenders for Pick of the Week. The Philadelphia Story and Your Name were the two best with the latter coming out on top and its Blu-ray Combo Pack is the Pick of the Week.
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October 20th, 2017
There isn’t a huge selection of limited releases this week, but there are several earning excellent reviews, such as 120 Beats Per Minute, Jane, Tragedy Girls, and others. Additionally, films like The Killing of a Sacred Deer and Wonderstruck are earning merely good reviews, but have enough buzz that they could still do well in theaters.
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April 27th, 2017
April comes to end with two wide releases that have modest ambitions at the box office. The Circle opens in 3,163 theaters for STX Entertainment, who will be happy if it beats The Bye Bye Man’s $13.5 million opening weekend and becomes their second-best opening to date (Bad Moms holds the record for the studio, with $23.8 million—a number they would be thrilled with). Speaking of records, The Circle holds a very unusual one…
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March 29th, 2017
It’s a good week for Pick of the Week contenders, as there are seven such releases on this week’s list. Unfortunately, none of them really scream out as The Pick of the Week. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story is by far the biggest, but it is only out on Video on Demand right now, while Hidden Figures is the best, but again, it is only on VOD this week. There are also a couple of busted Oscar-bait films, Archer: Season Seven is only getting a DVD release, while the previous seasons came out on Blu-ray. In the end, I went with Mystery Science Theater 3000: Volume XXXVIII, partially to celebrate the return of the show.
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March 19th, 2017
Beauty and the Beast set out this weekend to show that it’s not just super heroes who can deliver big openings at the box office, and it’s doing so in some style. Disney is projecting a $170 million opening weekend for the live action fairytale, and the film is setting records around the world. At home, it’ll have the biggest March weekend of all time, and the fourth-best Saturday of all time. The studio is projecting it will have the sixth-best Sunday in history, although my money would be on it slightly outperforming today, for the fifth-best Sunday, and that it will challenge Iron Man 3’s $174 million for the sixth-best opening of all time. Only Star Wars, super heroes, and dinosaur-themed movies have done better on opening weekend.
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December 6th, 2016
As expected, Moana dominated the weekend box office chart with a $10 million lead over its nearest competitor earning $28.27 million. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them also did well with $18.12 million. Unfortunately, those were the only two films to earn more than $10 million over the weekend and this left the overall box office down a massive 48% from last weekend to just $95 million. Worse still, this is 2.8% lower than the same weekend last year. I’m actually surprised it’s that close, because there were four films that earned more than $10 million last year, including the biggest new release, Krampus. 2016 was able to crack $10 billion before the weekend and has a very substantial lead at $10.12 billion to $9.66 billion for 2015.
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November 29th, 2016
As expected, Moana earned first place over the Thanksgiving weekend and became the biggest true opener in the holiday’s history. (Technically Frozen opened in limited release the week before and as we learned from Futurama, technically correct is the best kind of correct.) The film was a little more front-loaded than expected and nearly matched our predictions. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them held on better than predicted and that one-two punch helped the overall box office grow 17% from last weekend to $184 million, over the three-day portion of the weekend. This is nearly identical to the same weekend last year; in fact, it was up by less than 1%. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $9.99 billion. 2016 will soon become the eighth year in a row to reach the $10 billion milestone. This is 5.0% / $470 million above last year’s pace. I’ve been saying for a while that we needed to enter December with a $300 million advantage over 2015 in order to come out ahead at the end of the year, so this is great news.
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November 24th, 2016
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them opened in first place on the international chart with $143.3 million in 63 markets. The film had the biggest opening of the Harry Potter franchise in 16 of those 63 markets, but ironically not in the U.K., where it had its biggest opening. The film debuted in first place there with $18.90 million in 666 theaters. This is the third best in the franchise behind the two Deathly Hallows films. Some of the markets where Fantastic Beasts set the franchise record include South Korea, where it made $10.64 million on 1,431 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $14.15 million. It did the same in Russia with $10.29 million on 1,173 screens and in Brazil with $6.4 million.
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November 23rd, 2016
Thanksgiving weekend is one of the most lucrative weekends of the year and this time around we could have a relatively close battle between a new release, Moana, and last week’s number one film, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them. At least that’s what analysts thought, before we saw the preview numbers. None of the rest of the new wide releases are expected to do much. Allied could become a midlevel hit, but I would be surprised if its budget was only midlevel. Bad Santa 2 is on its way to becoming another comedy sequel that bombs. If Rules Don’t Apply’s previews are any indication, it will become one of the worst box office performers of the year. This weekend last year, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 beat The Good Dinosaur rather easily. However, Fantastic Beasts started slower than Moana, so I think we will have a new winner this week.
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November 22nd, 2016
As expected, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them dominated the box office earning nearly as much as the rest of the films combined. However, it was unexpectedly weak earning just $74.40 million. In fact, every film we talked about on Thursday’s predictions underperformed and the overall box office was down to $158 million. Granted, “down” in this case is only off by 0.1%, but considering we were expecting significant growth, even a little drop is distressing. Worse still, the box office is off by 8.9% from this weekend last year. Again, we were expecting growth in the year-over-year comparison, so a drop this big really hurts. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $9.49 billion, which is 5.9% or $540 million better than last year’s pace. That said, I wouldn’t panic, as Moana should help the box office bounce back this weekend.
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November 20th, 2016
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them is doing everything Warner Bros. could have wished for this weekend, posting a lively $75 million opening in the US, hitting $143.3 million internationally for a global opening over $200 million, and getting a A CinemaScore that should give it positive word of mouth going into Thanksgiving. For a franchise reboot, that’s a lot of reasons to be happy, although its opening is well below the openings enjoyed by the original Harry Potter franchise. The worst of those, Chamber of Secrets, opened with $88 million over three days (Order of the Phoenix and Half-Blood Prince both technically had slower weekends than Chamber of Secrets, but both of them opened on Wednesday, and they still did over $75 million Friday–Sunday).
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November 19th, 2016
As expected, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them easily earned first place on Friday. However, it only managed $29.7 million, which was well below expectations. This is the worst opening day in the Harry Potter franchise since The Chamber of Secrets. (The two films are so close that the final figure for Fantastic Beasts could be the worst in the franchise.) The reviews are weaker than the franchise as a whole, but its CinemaScore is an A and that’s roughly average for the previous 8 Harry Potter films. The film should still earn between $70 million and $75 million over the weekend, depending on if the high CinemaScore can overcome the Fanboy Effect. I would choose to be optimistic, but that hasn’t worked out this weekend.
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November 18th, 2016
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them pulled in $8.75 million during its midnight shows last night. That’s good, but a little lower than expected and not even the best of the fall so far. It was beaten by Doctor Strange, which earned $9.4 million just two weeks ago. Worse still, Fantastic Beasts' reviews have fallen to 74% positive. That’s still good for a blockbuster release, but it is the lowest in the Harry Potter franchise and will likely hurt the film’s box office performance over the weekend. It should still make over $80 million this weekend, but it will be close. We might have to revise that prediction lower tomorrow when we have Friday’s estimates.
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November 17th, 2016
At the beginning of the month, we thought there would be four wide releases / expansions this week. However, it turns out there will be just one, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them. The lack of wide releases should help it at the box office and there is a small chance it could top $100 million over the next three days. While there are no other wide releases, there are a few films opening or expanding semi-wide. Of these, The Edge of Seventeen is the only one with a realistic shot at the top five. It is earning the best reviews of the week and did earn a lot of film festival buzz, so that should help. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk had an amazing opening in limited release last weekend, but it will likely struggle as it expands into just over 1,000 theaters this weekend. Finally there’s Bleed for This, which is expected to barely make the top ten. This weekend last year, the final installment of the Hunger Games franchise opened with just over $100 million. There’s a slim chance Fantastic Beasts will do the same. Even if it doesn’t, the depth this year is much better than last year and that should help 2016 win in the year-over-year comparison.
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November 1st, 2016
October turned out to be a mixed month. On the one hand, not one movie earned $100 million, or even came close. However, it was also a more steady month than last October and the last two weeks really helped 2016 in the year-over-year comparisons. In November, we have five films with at least a shot at $100 million, three of which should have no trouble getting to at least $200 million. A little while ago, I thought Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them would be the biggest hit of the month, but the buzz took a hit recently. More on that below. Meanwhile, Doctor Strange’s reviews are currently 90% positive and that should help it out at the box office. The third very likely $200 million hit is Moana. There is certainly precedent for an animated movie to be a monster hit at this time of year, but there is also a lot of competition. Last November was similar in strength, with five films that earned more than $100 million and two films that earned more than $200 million. None earned more than $300 million, so that’s the goal for this November. If we can get one $300 million and / or three $200 million movies over the month, then it will be seen as a victory.
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October 13th, 2016
Last weekend, Finding Dory became the 27th film to earn $1 billion worldwide. In doing so, it created a lot of interesting tidbits worth talking about. But first, the history of $1 billion movies.
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March 27th, 2016
Batman and Superman not only had to fight each other this weekend, but also mediocre reviews. They have come through in some style, however, posting a record for March of $170.1 million, according to Warner Bros.’ Sunday morning estimate. Our model has the film coming a little below that mark, at $165 million or so, which might mean it won’t quite top Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II’s $169 million, which is currently the studio’s best ever weekend. But the fact that we’re comparing the movie to the Harry Potter franchise is nothing but good news for them.
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November 1st, 2015
October has come to an end and everyone should be happy about that. Except for The Martian, there were no serious hits that opened last month. There were more outright bombs than even midlevel hits. Fortunately, October of last year wasn't spectacular either, so 2015 maintains a healthy lead over 2014. Even more fortunately, November looks fantastic. There are four films that have the potential to earn $200 million or more. The biggest of these is the final Hunger Games movie, which should reach $400 million. Spectre has a real shot at $300 million and could be the biggest hit in the franchise. Meanwhile, nearly every November there's an animated kids movie that becomes a monster hit. This year, The Peanuts Movie and The Good Dinosaur are both aiming for that box office milestone. The last time we didn't have a family film that earned at least $100 million in November was 2011 and that's because there were four family films that opened in the final two weeks of the month and that much competition meant they cannibalized each other. Both of these has a shot at $200 million and if neither of them reached $200 million, I would be shocked. Meanwhile, last November was a good month at the top with three monster hits: The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1, Big Hero 6, and Interstellar. However, after those three films, there were not much positive to talk about. It really looks like 2015 will match 2014 at the top, plus it could have better depth. I might be a little too optimistic, but I think November is going to be a great month at the box office.
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June 18th, 2015
Jurassic World completed the trifecta over the weekend. Not only did the film have the largest domestic debut, it broke the same record internationally and worldwide. The film pulled in $315.61 million on 19,612 screens in 66 markets for a worldwide opening weekend of $524.42 million. It broke the previous international and worldwide records that were held by Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II. It is also the first film to open with more than $500 million worldwide and it is just a matter of when, not if, it will top $1 billion globally. The only downside is the number of markets it has yet to open in, which is one. It debuts in Japan in August and it might be the biggest global hit of the year before it even gets there.
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October 31st, 2014
October was a better than expected month with the overall box office keeping pace with October of 2013, for the most part. (The last weekend will be terrible, but that's because of Halloween.) We were able to close the gap somewhat in the year-over-year comparison, at least by a little bit. So how will November do compared to October. Let's put it this way. There are only seven films opening wide this month. Of those, Beyond the Lights will likely not make an impact at the box office. Every other film has at least a reasonable shot at $100 million. More than half the of the films opening this month could hit $200 million. Leading the way will be The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1, which could hit $400 million. The only problem is when book franchises split the final installment into two parts, the first part tends to be weaker at the box office. Interstellar is a big question mark. On the low end, it could make just over $100 million, while on the high end, just over $300 million is within reach. That's a wide range of expectations. On the downside, last November, there were two movies to reach $400 million: Catching Fire and Frozen. On the other hand, there was only one other movie to make more than $100 million, Thor: The Dark World, so perhaps the depth this year will help 2014 come out ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
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September 22nd, 2014
This summer was terrible at the box office with no $250 million hits throughout the summer until Guardians of the Galaxy opened in August. That said, there were a number of smaller movies that did quite well at the box office. Neighbors, for instance, cost less than $20 million to make, but pulled in $150 million at the box office. Was it a hit because of its quality? Or did it benefit from the weakness in the tentpole releases?
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June 30th, 2014
With the recent weak performance of films such as Transcendence and Edge of Tomorrow at the box office, there’s been a lot of talk recently about how much actors and actresses are really worth to a film. The poor performance of these films hasn’t come as a huge surprise to followers of the Bankability Index, which produces valuations considerably below the $20 million that Johnny Depp reportedly earned from his lead role in Transcendence, and we thought this is a good opportunity to look at what the Index says about the most valuable actors and actresses in the business.
With Angelina Jolie making headlines for all the right reasons for her starring role in Maleficent, it seemed only fitting to start with an analysis of the most valuable actresses in Hollywood. For this chart, we’ve taken each star’s worldwide Bankability Index and divided it by the number of films they make each year to get an estimate of the average value they bring to a film, as of June, 2014.
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April 22nd, 2014
Captain America: The Winter Soldier won the weekend box office race with a better than expected result and this helped it reach $200 million. Likewise, Heaven is for Real was surprisingly strong earning second place over the weekend, despite opening on Wednesday. Unfortunately, none of the other new releases lived up to expectations and the overall box office fell 5% to $133 million. This was still 20% higher than the same weekend last year, boosting 2014's lead over 2013 to 8% at $2.92 billion to $2.70 billion.
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March 20th, 2014
Another week, another pair of wide releases. That's becoming a common thing to say. It is also a good thing to say, because too many movies tend to hurt all films involved and it is much better to have one big release and the counter-programing film. This week the big release is Divergent, which the studio is hoping will be the start of a new franchise. The box office tracking for the film looks good, even if the reviews do not. The counter-programing this week is Muppets Most Wanted, which is also opening with a saturation level theater count and it looks to do as well as The Muppets did. Last year there was also a strong one-two punch with The Croods topping Olympus has Fallen $43.64 million to $30.37 million. I'm not sure that Muppets Most Wanted will hold up its end of the bargain, but Divergent is poised for an opening of at least $50 million. It looks likes 2014 will again win over 2013.
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February 24th, 2014
It's a very impressive week at the top of the new DVD and Blu-ray releases. There's not one, but two $200 million hits coming out this week. Likewise, there are not one, but two major Awards Season hits coming out as well. One film, Gravity, is in both groups. All three films, Gravity, Thor: The Dark World, and Nebraska, are all contenders for Pick of the Week. Gravity is the only one I didn't get a chance to review, but the Blu-ray Combo Pack or the 3D Combo Pack are clearly the Pick of the Week. It's an amazing movie and the Blu-ray releases are loaded with extras.
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January 31st, 2014
After a weak start, January rebounded and a couple of films on last month's preview cracked $100 million at the box office. Granted, Lone Survivor is technically a December release, but Ride Along will become one of the rare January releases to reach the century mark. Unfortunately, there doesn't appear to be too many February releases that have a real shot at $100 million. It is very likely that The Lego Movie will reach that milestone, but most of the rest of the movies will be lucky if they reach $50 million. Last February was very similar. We had one surprise $100 million hit, Identity Thief, plus a couple of solid midlevel hits, Warm Bodies, for instance. However, for the most part, the month was one miss after another. This means 2014 could continue its winning ways, or at the very least, shouldn't fall behind 2013's pace.
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October 25th, 2013
There are three wide releases, but only two of them have any chance of becoming more than a midlevel hit. Free Birds is a digitally animated family film that has a very timely release, but it is also a second-tier CG animated film. Ender's Game is a $110 million film based on a book aimed at young adults. It is yet another film trying to tap into the vacuum left behind by Harry Potter. I don't think either of them will be big hits, but one of them has to be the target film. I think Free Birds will have better legs, but that Ender's Game will have a better opening. As such, it is the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Ender's Game.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), regardless if they go over or not, will win a copy of The Conjuring on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
To celebrate, we have Five Things to know about The Conjuring, in GIF form, starting with...
1) The Conjuring is directed by the acclaimed James Wan, the Australian-born director of the fright-fests Insidious and the Saw series. His Twitter handle is @CreepyPuppet. Say no more.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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September 14th, 2013
Top-grossing actors and actresses in leading roles
Over the past two or so years, we've been working on one of the biggest projects we've ever undertaken: building out our database of acting and technical credits to include complete information on every acting role and significant technical credit for movies for which we have box office information. While work on this vast task continues (and will, of course, continue as long as films are being made), we have enough coverage of the industry now to start doing some serious analysis. Over the next month or two, I'll be looking at some of the things we've found and we'll be rolling out new features at The Numbers that take advantage of the dataset. This week, I'll look into how we are categorizing acting roles, and discuss the first charts in our new People Records section.
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June 16th, 2013
2013 has been a nervous time for Warner Bros.. After six straight years as the number one or number two domestic distributor, the studio's main franchise breadwinners, Batman, Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings and The Hangover are all coming to an end or already played out. They are running in third place for the year to date, and badly need a new money spinner if they are to avoid lean times in 2015 and beyond. This weekend they got their knight in shining armor, or, more accurately, Man of Steel. The reboot of the venerable Superman franchise will open this weekend with $113.08 million, a new record weekend in June and a huge shot in the arm for the studio.
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January 8th, 2013
There were half-a-dozen new releases to chart on the November 11th edition of the Blu-ray sales chart. This includes The Amazing Spider-Man, which earned first place with 641,000 units / $14.37 million. Its opening week Blu-ray share was 54%, which is impressive, but one has to assume the studio was hoping for more. Then again, the film is more than profitable enough to ensure a sequel.
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November 23rd, 2012
This weekend is Thanksgiving and as always that means Black Friday and Cyber Monday plus 48 hours of shopping in-between. Unlike most years, I'm only halfway done with my Christmas shopping. So what recent, and not so recent releases are prime candidates for the perfect gift this year? Over the next month, we will go over several dozen possibilities with our annual Holiday Gift Guide, which is divided into into four sections. This week we start with Major Movie Releases. These are first run releases, franchise box sets, etc. However, before we get into the individual titles, we will start with an update on...
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November 18th, 2012
The beginning of the end for the Twilight franchise is here, and, as expected, big money is being made by Lionsgate/Summit. While this installment doesn't look like it will break franchise records, Lionsgate is predicting a $141.3 million opening weekend, which will be the 8th-best of all time, assuming it holds up. New Moon will most likely remain the top opener for the franchise with $142.8 million, although it will be a close-run thing. Twilight will most likely end up the 5th-highest-grossing franchise at the domestic box office, behind only the "box office gods", Harry Potter, Star Wars, Batman and James Bond.
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