March 26th, 2023
John Wick: Chapter 4 will continue the Wick franchise’s remarkable run of better box office with each installment this weekend. It’s projected to open with $73.525 million, according to Lionsgate, handily beating the $56.8-million opening of Chapter 3, and also giving the studio their best debut since The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 back in 2015.
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March 24th, 2023
John Wick: Chapter 4 will continue the remarkable run for the John Wick franchise by earning more on opening weekend than John Wick: Chapter 3—Parabellum, just as that movie beat the opening weekend of John Wick: Chapter Two, which had a better opening weekend than the original John Wick. It’s a rare franchise that manages to grow business with each new release, and an even rarer one that gets better reviews with each outing. But this is one of them. Exactly how much it’ll make this weekend remains a little uncertain, but things are looking very, very good.
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March 23rd, 2023
Shazam! Fury of the Gods retains its opening count of 4,071 cinemas, once again making it the widest release. The film earned a disappointing $30.11 million in its opening weekend and currently sits with a six-day total of $35.6 million from North American showings. Internationally it earned similar numbers with weekend figures of $34.6 million. Despite its designation as widest release, Fury of the Gods will take a back seat at the box office this week as the latest installment of the John Wick franchise is expected to easily dominate.
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July 21st, 2020
It is a rather slow on the home market, even compared to what we’ve seen recently. However, there are at least a couple of releases that should do well on the sales chart. Scoob! should easily sell the most units of any release on this week’s list, but Northern Exposure: The Complete Series is getting the jump on next week’s massive flood of TV on DVD releases and that’s clearly helping its sales numbers. That said, neither of these are contenders for Pick of the Week; in fact, there is really only one contender for that title, Marriage Story, which is getting a Criterion Collection release this week.
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February 12th, 2020
It’s another slow week on the home market, but that doesn’t mean there are no first run releases of note. Ford v. Ferrari is the biggest and the best of these releases, but you might have trouble getting it on Amazon. There are some impressive foreign imports on this list, including First Love, Fruits Basket, Jojo’s Bizarre Adventure, and Roma. That last one is also the Pick of the Week.
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September 11th, 2019
There are two monster hits coming out this week, Aladdin and John Wick: Chapter 3 — Parabellum, and this has scared away almost all of the competition. Fortunately, John Wick is amazing and a clear Pick of the Week contender. There was only one other film in contention for that title, Echo in the Canyon. Granted, I like Parabellum more, but it was already awarded the Pick of the Week when it hit VOD, so Echo in the Canyon gets the honor this week.
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September 4th, 2019
It’s another short week with not a lot to talk about. The biggest release of the week is Men in Black International, but it missed expectations by a significant margin. The best first-run release is Booksmart, which also missed expectations by a significant margin, but it is still good enough to be a Pick of the Week contender. In fact, it’s only competition is My Hero Academia: Season Three, Part Two. It came down to a literal coin toss and My Hero Academia won, but both deserve the title.
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September 2nd, 2019
The John Wick franchise has experienced phenomenal growth. The second film earned more domestically than the first film earned worldwide. Meanwhile, John Wick: Chapter 3 — Parabellum earned more worldwide than the first two films combined. Is the franchise also experiencing high quality? Or should fans of these movies be worried about the upcoming fourth film?
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July 17th, 2019
Furie is a Vietnamese martial arts movie that many compared to Taken. The film earned stellar reviews and did incredibly well in limited release for a foreign-language film. Did it deserve this success? Or did it get lucky?
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June 2nd, 2019
As expected, Godzilla: King of the Monsters is leading the way on the weekend box office chart. However, it is falling a little short of expectations with an estimated opening weekend of $49.03 million. The film earned a B plus from CinemaScore, which is much better than its reviews, but still not stellar, while the genre isn’t known for long legs, so I’m not sure about its future. It is performing a lot better internationally with $130 million on 52,000 screens in 75 markets, including $70 million in China and $8.4 million in Japan. It has nearly matched its $200 million production budget in just one weekend, while it has yet to open in Spain and a few smaller markets.
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May 29th, 2019
Aladdin opened with $121.0 million in 54 markets earning first place on the international chart. Add in its three-day domestic debut and it had a global opening of $212.5 million at the end of business on Sunday. The film’s biggest market was China, where it managed $18.92 million over the weekend, earning first place along the way. It was also number one in the U.K. with $8.97 million and it topped the chart in Mexico with $8.78 million. The latter is more impressive, given the relative size of the two markets. On the downside, the film was expensive to make and it only has one major market left to debut in (Japan), so it will need long legs to break even in a timely fashion.
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May 28th, 2019
It was a great weekend for Aladdin and an okay weekend for the box office as a whole. Aladdin made more over the three-day portion of the weekend than most predicted it would make over four days. Unfortunately, not all of the rest of the films were able to pull their weight. The overall box office still grew 23% from last weekend reaching $181 million, but it slipped when compared to last year. Granted, it fell less than $1 million or 0.5% when compared to the same weekend last year, which is such a small gap that it is practically a tie. Year-to-date, 2019 has pulled in $4.31 billion, which is 9.2% or $440 million lower than 2018’s running tally of $4.75 million and this number needs to improve over the coming weeks.
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May 26th, 2019
Aladdin’s box office continues to grow with Disney projecting $86.1 million over the three-day weekend, putting it on pace for $105 million including Monday. Its reviews are fine, but its A from CinemaScore is really telling a story here and it should lead to long legs, especially with school holidays starting soon. Internationally, the film earned $121.0 million, not including Monday, for a $207.1 million global debut. The film did okay in China with $18.7 million, but clearly the lack of nostalgia was hurting it here. The film was a much bigger hit in Mexico with $9.2 million, but it was also a smash in the U.K. ($8.4 million); Italy ($6.6 million); and others. More on that during our International Top Five column.
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May 22nd, 2019
Pokémon: Detective Pikachu remained in first place earning $56.4 million on 32,113 screens in 72 markets for totals of $196.2 million internationally and $290.6 million worldwide. The film’s only major market debut of the weekend, and indeed the last major market of the film’s international run, was Russia. It earned first place there with $4.0 million on 3,085 screens. Its biggest market overall was China, where it added $17.94 million on 15,000 screens to its running tally, which now sits at $69.66 million after two weeks of release. It fell 55% during its sophomore stint, which is an amazing hold for this market. The film has no major market openings going forward, but it should stick around long enough to crack $300 million internationally and even has a slim shot at $500 million worldwide.
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May 21st, 2019
The overall weekend was about as good as anyone could hope for with John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum topping expectations with $56.82 million. This mostly made up for A Dog’s Journey and The Sun is Also A Star, both of which missed low expectations. However, the overall weekend still fell 12% when compared to last weekend at $147 million and this is 30% lower than the same weekend last year. To be fair, almost no one was expecting this year to match last year, because last year Deadpool 2 opened. Year-to-date, 2019 is still behind 2018 by a 9.2% or $410 million margin at $4.03 billion to $4.44 billion. Fortunately, if Aladdin does as well next weekend as many are expecting, then this losing streak will end after just one week.
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May 19th, 2019
John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum is way ahead of the weekend competition with a projected $57.03 million opening weekend. This is not only more than the next two films combined, it is more than the first film in the John Wick franchise earned domestically. Add in the film’s reviews, its A minus from CinemaScore, and Memorial Day long weekend, which is next weekend, and it should have relatively long legs. $150 million domestically isn’t out of the question. Like the other films in the John Wick franchise, this one isn’t doing as well internationally. However, it is still step up from the second film with an opening weekend of $35.2 million from 66 markets. This includes number one debuts in the U.K. ($4.6 million) and Australia ($2.8 million), while it had to settle for second place in Russia ($3.8 million) and third place in Mexico ($2.1 million). The film likely cost $50 million to make and an equal amount to advertise, while Lionsgate’s share of the global opening weekend is likely north of $40 million. The film is on pace to break even before it reaches the home market.
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May 18th, 2019
John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum got off to a surprisingly strong start on Friday with $22.67 million during its first day of release. Even if we subtract Thursday’s previews, this is still more than the first film made during its opening weekend. It would take incredibly short legs for Parabellum to not earn more during its opening weekend than the first film earned in total. It should have reasonable legs over the weekend. Granted, it is a sequel and its target audience is known to rush out to theaters; however, its reviews are strong and it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, tying it with the second film for best in the franchise. With a little luck, it will crack $60 million over the full weekend.
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May 16th, 2019
This weekend likely won’t be a particularly good one at the box office, when compared to last weekend and especially when compared to last year. There are three wide releases, but only John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum is expected to make a significant impact at the box office. A Dog’s Journey could become a midlevel hit, while The Sun is Also A Star might not open in the top five. Fortunately, both Pokémon: Detective Pikachu and Avengers: Endgame should provide some power at the box office. Unfortunately, this weekend last year, Deadpool 2 debuted with just over $125 million. There’s almost no chance 2019 will match 2018 at the box office and the year’s mini-wining streak is about to come to an end.
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May 1st, 2019
April got off to a fast start with Shazam! opening the first weekend of the month. Meanwhile, Avengers: Endgame ended the month with a record-breaking debut. Unfortunately for 2019, last April had a very similar result leaving 2019 behind 2018’s pace by over $400 million. Will May be able to turn things around? Last May, there were only two films that reached $200 million, Deadpool 2 and Solo: A Star Wars Story. Meanwhile, this May there are three such films, Detective Pikachu, Aladdin, and Godzilla: King of the Monsters. There are two points we need to make. Firstly, the only reason there are more potential $200 million hits this year is because May has five Fridays this year. Secondly, this May also has a lot better depth with films like John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum and Rocketman being potential $100 million hits. Even if we ignore the final weekend, May should do well enough to cut into 2018’s lead over 2019. It’s not going to be able to cut it in half, but it could do well enough to make box office analysts a little more positive about the year’s chances overall.
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June 1st, 2018
This May was an odd month, as Avengers: Infinity War opened on the last weekend of April, rather than the first weekend of May. This meant May started out slowly, but Deadpool 2 and Solo: A Star Wars Story did well enough to give 2018 a healthy lead over 2017. Looking forward, there are two potential monster hits this month, Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, and another $100 million hit, Ocean’s 8. Last June, there were four $100 million hits, led by Wonder Woman, which pulled in over $400 million. I think 2018 and 2017 will be an even match at the top, so 2018 will have to rely on depth to improve upon its lead over 2017.
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November 13th, 2017
It’s a bad week for screeners, as the screeners for both Atomic Blonde and Wind River are late. Both look like they are worth picking up, but not quite Pick of the Week material. There are a trio of contenders for this award: In This Corner of the World, Kedi, and Whose Streets? It was a close call, but in the end, Kedi came out on top.
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July 27th, 2017
The final weekend of July has two wide releases, Atomic Blonde and The Emoji Movie. Neither are expected to be monster hits, but both could be profitable at the box office. Atomic Blonde’s reviews are excellent and its connections to the John Wick movies could get people into theaters. The Emoji Movie still has no reviews and its buzz is incredibly negative. I haven’t seen buzz this negative since Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul. This does give Dunkirk a real shot at repeating on top of the chart. This weekend last year, Jason Bourne opened with nearly $60 million, which will likely be more than both new releases this year earn. Even if Dunkirk has better legs than expected, there’s little hope 2017 will win in the year-over-year comparison.
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July 1st, 2017
I hate it when the first of the month lands on a Saturday. By the time this story goes live, we will still have almost no box office data for Despicable Me 3, so we won’t know if June ended on a positive note. Fortunately, Wonder Woman beat expectations and might end up as the biggest hit of the summer, at least for a little while. July begins with Spider-Man: Homecoming, which should make at least $300 million and is the last film being released this summer that has a shot at being a $400 million hit domestically. It is very likely that nothing else this month will come within $100 million of that movie, so that could help its legs. There are a few potential $100 million hits, including War for the Planet of the Apes, Dunkirk, and a couple of other long shots. Last July had a similar feel with The Secret Life of Pets topping the list with well over $300 million, while there were five other $100 million hits. This July would have to beat expectations substantially to match this performance. I’m not confident 2017 will be able to maintain its pace at the box office. I’m worried at least one big film will struggled and 2017 will end the month behind 2016’s pace.
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June 11th, 2017
The original John Wick came out of nowhere. There was no hype machine pumping up the film, so most moviegoers had no real idea what was coming. There was strong buzz from the people who had seen it, but nothing compared to the average midlevel release. Its reviews were amazing, but it still didn’t really find a large audience in theaters. Fortunately for the studio, it was inexpensive enough that it made enough profit to justify a sequel. Can John Wick: Chapter 2 live up to its predecessor?
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February 14th, 2017
As expected, it was a big weekend at the box office with three massive hits. The Lego Batman Movie did earn first place, but not with as much as predicted at just $53.00 million. Fifty Shades Darker wasn’t that far behind with $46.61 million. Meanwhile, John Wick: Chapter Two just cracked $30 million, which is one of the ten best third place openings of all time. Week-over-week, the box office nearly doubled growing 90% from last weekend. Sadly, it was down 22% from last year. Granted, Valentine’s Day landed on a Sunday last year, so that boosted the weekend box office and 2017 should make some of that decline back on Tuesday. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $1.28 billion, putting it $40 million or 3.0% behind 2016’s pace. It is still way too soon to tell how 2017 will finish in the end, but hopefully things will turn around soon.
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February 12th, 2017
A slighty-worse-than-expected performance from The Lego Batman Movie and a slightly-better-than-expected weekend for Fifty Shades Darker is creating a close race at the top of the box office chart this weekend. Lego Batman will win in the end, with Warner Bros. projecting $55.6 million for the weekend, but Fifty Shades Darker won on Friday, and won’t be far behind in the end. Universal pegs the film at $46.8 million over three days.
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February 1st, 2017
January turned out to be a good month. Granted, it didn’t live up to last January, but its box office was one of the top five Januarys of all time, so that’s still a good start to the year. Also, we will have our first $100 million movie released in 2017 and that doesn’t happen this early very often. As for February, there’s potentially the first $200 million hit of the year, The Lego Batman Movie. Fifty Shades Darker and The Great Wall both have a shot at $100 million. That said, it is more likely that both will miss that milestone than both will get there. As for the rest of the films, there are a few that are aiming for solid midlevel hits, like John Wick: Chapter Two and Get Out, while there are very few potential bombs. By comparison, last February there was one monster hit, Deadpool, and a lot of bombs. No other movie besides Deadpool made $50 million. No movie opening this month will match Deadpool, but we won’t have as many bombs either, so hopefully that will balance out and 2017 won’t fall further behind 2016.
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