This graph shows Harrison Ford’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny may break an unusual record this weekend by opening with fewer millions of dollars than the age of its leading star. The fifth movie in the franchise would need to top $80 million to outscore the age of its octogenarian lead, Harrison Ford, and it looks likely to come up short. The last tentpole adventure film to do that was probably 2017’s The Mummy, which stumbled out the gate with $31.6 million, in spite of having to cross a lower bar: Tom Cruise was “just” 54 when that film debuted. Indy will most likely come in somewhere around $70 million.
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We had a great start to the year, sort of. Most films that opened / expanded wide in January are going to miss expectations; however, Bad Boys for Life and 1917 are so much stronger than anticipated that they alone will more than make up the difference. Looking forward, Birds of Prey (And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) is almost guaranteed to be the biggest hit of the month. There are two questions. Firstly, is it going to top Bad Boys for Life and become the biggest hit of the year so far? Secondly, is it going to be the only $100 million hit of month? Hopefully the answers to those questions are yes and no respectively, but no to both is would still be good news overall. Sonic the Hedgehog is looking better than before and frankly Paramount needs a hit after a very troubling 2019. Meanwhile, there are several midlevel hits that could help the overall box office. Last February was a mixed month with some hits, like How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, but some disappointing results as well, like from The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part. I think it will be a close race in the year-over-year competition with 2020 winning some weeks and losing others.
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Star Wars: The Last Jedi was the biggest box office hit of 2016, both domestically and worldwide. It also earned 91% positive reviews and a solid A from CinemaScore. It is also hated by a minority of very loud, very aggressive people. Are the majority right? Do the minority have a legitimate case to make?
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September destroyed the previous September monthly record for total box office take, with $800 million or so (we won’t know the exact figure until after the weekend), which tops 2016’s record of $616 million. Granted, this is almost entirely due to It’s record breaking run, and the rest of the month was merely average. Kingsman: The Golden Circle was the only other film to come close to $100 million. October doesn’t look any better, as far as depth is concerned. Blade Runner 2049 is widely expected to be the biggest hit of the month, but it is the only film expected to reach $100 million domestically. Boo 2 should be the second biggest hit of the month, while there are only a couple of other films that have a shot at $50 million. Part of the problem is the level of competition, as there are 16 films opening during the four October weekends. (Needless to say, some of the predictions below will be a little short, as there’s not much to say about a film that will barely open in the top ten and disappear two weeks later.) That’s way too many and most will be buried by the competition. Last October was a flop, as no film earned more than $100 million at the box office. There were a few films that came close, including the original Boo! movie. As long as Blade Runner 2049 matches expectations, 2017 should win the year-over-year comparison by a small margin. If we get one surprise hit, then 2017 has a real shot at closing the gap with 2016 by a significant margin. I choose to be cautiously optimistic.
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After rankingStar Wars: The Force Awakens for those who still haven't seen it, we can do a full featured review. The film smashed box office records here and earned 92% positive reviews. Is it as good as its box office / Tomatometer Score? Or did people just get caught up in the hype?
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November ended on a positive note with a strong Thanksgiving weekend. Even so, the overall numbers were mixed with a lot of misses mixed in with a few hits. It was better than October and we will call that a victory. Meanwhile, December is potentially record-breaking. Actually, given the evidence, it is almost assuredly going to be record-breaking. Star Wars: The Force Awakens has already set a record for the most money taken from ticket pre-sales and the biggest December weekend will fall. The pre-orders alone will guarantee that. On the downside, it is very likely that no film will make as much in total as The Force Awakens will make during its opening weekend. There's a chance no film makes in total as much as The Force Awakens makes during its opening day. There are a few films that have a shot at $100 million. For example, Joy should get there, if it becomes a major player during Awards Season. If not, it will at least come close. Daddy's Home, and to a lesser extent Sisters, could be surprise $100 million hits. However, like the rest of 2015, December is shaping up to be a month of a record-breaking hit and a lot of films that struggle just to get noticed. On the other hand, last December, was a lot more balanced at the top with four films earning more than $100 million, led by The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies. There's a chance The Force Awakens earns more than all four $100 million hits from last year earned combined.
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The Age of Adaline was a late April release, which is one of three dumping grounds throughout the calender. The big summer releases are just around the corner and are sucking up all of the available hype. Because of this, it is hard for a late April release to thrive and studios tend to dump misfires or counter-programming films during these weeks. So is The Age of Adaline a misfire? Or does it fit nicely into the counter-programming role?
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March ended on a good note and helped 2015 maintain its lead over 2014 thanks to a trio of $100 million movies: Cinderella, Insurgent, and Home. April isn't as strong as far as depth goes, as only Furious 7 is expected to come close to $100 million at the box office. On the positive side, it could earn $100 million during its opening weekend, becoming the fastest starting film of the year, so far. On the negative side, it is expected to earn more than double the rest of the films' combined box office totals. Even worse, last April, there were two $100 million hits, including Captain America: The Winter Soldier, as well as two others that came close. There's no way April 2015 is going to live up to April 2014. I just hope the collapse isn't so bad that 2015 loses its lead over 2014 completely.
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Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy came out in theaters nearly a decade ago. It earned good reviews and did well at the box office managing nearly $90 million worldwide on a $25 million budget. However, it became a classic on the home market and many think it is among Will Ferrell's best movies. Rumors of a sequel persisted for quite a while before Anchorman: The Legend Continues finally came out. It earned better reviews and nearly doubled the first film's numbers at the worldwide box office. Is this because the quality is also better? Or did it unduly benefit from nearly ten years of demand?
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The Jack Ryan franchise is a strange one. There have been four films so far, with a fifth on the way, and during that time, four different actors will have played the titular role. Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit hits theaters in mid-January, so it is a perfect time to release the four earlier movies on a Blu-ray box set. (Or to be more accurate, re-release the 2008 Blu-rays in one box set.) How many of these earlier films are worth checking out? And is the box set good value?
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October ended on a winning note, but it was the only time the entire month that 2013 topped 2012 in the year-over-year comparison. This is quite shocking, as Gravity crushed expectations with more than $200 million and counting. Even with that surprise monster hit, the month still couldn't keep pace with last year. Compared to October, November looks a lot better with three films that could be monster hits: Frozen, Thor: The Dark World, and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. On the other hand, those are the only three movies with a 50/50 chance or better to top $100 million compared, while there were seven films that reached that milestone last November. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire should make more than last year's number one film, Skyfall, but the depth last year could prove too much to deal with. 2013 might dip below last year's pace sometime during the month, but hopefully it won't stay there too long.
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Top-grossing actors and actresses in leading roles
Over the past two or so years, we've been working on one of the biggest projects we've ever undertaken: building out our database of acting and technical credits to include complete information on every acting role and significant technical credit for movies for which we have box office information. While work on this vast task continues (and will, of course, continue as long as films are being made), we have enough coverage of the industry now to start doing some serious analysis. Over the next month or two, I'll be looking at some of the things we've found and we'll be rolling out new features at The Numbers that take advantage of the dataset. This week, I'll look into how we are categorizing acting roles, and discuss the first charts in our new People Records section.
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July was hit and miss at the box office, mostly miss. In fact, only two films really topped expectations, Despicable Me 2 and The Conjuring. That said, 2013 has nearly closed the gap with 2012 and it won't take much to pull ahead. Looking forward to August, we find that it is a very busy month with 16 or so films opening wide over five weeks. Of course, the closer you get to September, the more likely these films will struggle to find an audience, and more often than not, there are simply too many films opening wide to suspect they will all find an audience. On the high end, 2 Guns could be the biggest hit of the month with just over $100 million. The Smurfs 2 and Elysium could pull in $100 million. All three of those films are opening in the first two weeks of the month. After that, most of the new releases will be lucky if they reach $50 million during their theatrical runs. By comparison, last August was not as busy with 14 wide releases. Of those, only one film, The Bourne Legacy, topped $100 million, although a couple came reasonably close. Hopefully we will have more $100 million hits this time around and 2013 will be able to complete the comeback.
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March is over and while it is a little too soon to tell where a few films will end their box office runs, it is clear Oz The Great and Powerful won the month. Some films beat expectations to become midlevel hits, like The Call, but it wasn't a great month at the box office, especially compared to last year. This month, there are only seven wide releases spread over four weeks. Only one of those films, Oblivion, has a shot at being anything more than a midlevel hit. None of the other six releases look like they will come close to $100 million, but none of them look like obvious bombs either. (Although I do have my worries when it comes to Scary Movie 5.) Last April was even weaker with no film earning $100 million, although Think Like a Man did come relatively close. We might actually see growth on the year-over-year comparison. We'd better, because 2013 is behind 2012's pace by a huge margin at the moment and things will get worse when May arrives.
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All Acting Credits
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