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Just a silly cryptid with brilliant cat.
Medical school is ruining my life
I write long posts and literary analysis sometimes
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two soft jayviks cuz i still don't have access to my twitter account and i'm mad cuz a scammer is now pretending to me >:(

If athletes are allowed to compete, they should also be allowed to win.

Every single time I see a story where a trans athlete "blows out" the competition, their performance usually ends up not being quite as dominent as claimed.

When you look at the fastest 400m times in high school competition, it greatly adjusts the context.

In running, a second can be an eternity. Most world records are only a few tenths of a second apart. And this trans athlete is a full 7 seconds away from a record set by a cisgender high school runner.

According to the New York Post, 7 seconds is a blowout.

College runners are getting times under 50 seconds. And the world record is 47.60—a full 10 seconds faster.

This trans athlete can't help it if she is in a league with a bunch of slowpokes. She won a race. She is pretty fast in relation to her direct competition. But she is not some spectacular speed demon who will dominate women's running.

Her time wasn't even at scholarship level.

And the second place finisher wasn't even close to a "decent" time.

Also...

The vast majority of the world's top sprinters are of West African descent. Just to give you an idea of the statistics, every world record holder in the men's 100m dash since 1968 has been Black.

So they are basically cherry picking ideal circumstances to make a trans athlete look overpowered—as Portland only has a 5% Black population.

If this race happened in Atlanta instead of Portland, the trans runner probably would have won 10th place and this wouldn't be a news story.

How to create a moral panic 101.

We've got another "dominant" trans athlete going viral.

While it is true that Redmond Sullivan has had two first place finishes in tournaments since transitioning, if you look at her record, you might notice this isn't as dominant as claimed.

First I have to explain fencing ratings.

You have individual ratings A through E. The As are top fencers and Es (or unrated) fencers are the worst. The number after the rating is the year.

So a rating of A25 means you are a top level fencer in 2025.

Then you have event classes. They are also A through E but have an additional 1 through 4 difficulty variant.

The easiest tournament is E1.

It has 6 competitors and none of them have to be rated. So you are competing against poorly ranked people and have a much higher statistical chance of winning.

This is like playing basketball with all of your nerdiest friends and "accidentally" forgetting to invite Steve who is 6'4".

The hardest tournaments are A4.

This requires at least 64 competitors and must have at least 12 A-rated, 12 B-rated, and 12 C-rated fencers.

This is like being a 40 year old playing Halo against a hundred 12-year-olds all saying rude things about your mom while repeatedly headshotting you with ease.

If you look at Redmond's two first place finishes, they were in E1 and D1 competitions. (A D1 requires 15 people with four of them E-rated.)

She had a decent statistical chance of winning because the competitors were few and poorly rated.

If you look at her only A4 tournament, she placed 172nd.

I'm not sure I would call someone who placed 172nd particularly dominant.

She currently has a "D" rating overall.

When fencing in men's competitions, she was rated E. And she slightly improved to a D in women's competitions—though this is only with 3 months of data. She ended 2024 with an E rating in women's events. So maybe she improved to a D and a half.

No offense to Redmond, but she is not anywhere close to a top level fencer no matter which league she competes in.

Stephanie Turner, the kneeling transphobe, currently has an E rating and has never finished a year better than a D. By all accounts, she is evenly matched against Redmond and had a legit chance at winning the match. But it was an A2 tournament and she really had no chance of placing highly so I guess she figured this was a good opportunity to be a dipshit.

She is a coward who only took a stand when the stakes were lowest.

I'd also like to point out that Colin Rugg was quick to mention Redmond's first place finishes, but failed to mention that in the very tournament with this kneeling protest, she got 24th place.

It really seems like these trans athletes aren't trying to become dominant athletes by transitioning and they are just competing because they love it.

I mean, if I ever got 172nd place I'd probably hang up my rapier and just watch Zorro movies instead.

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