Partial shutdown measures introduced in Finland for the month of March, such as remote learning, restrictions on leisure activities and the closure of restaurants, are intended to curb the coronavirus epidemic. The daily Helsingin Sanomat asks how great an impact these measures are expected to have.
Ministry of Social Affairs and Health director Pasi Pohjola told HS that no specific, official target has been defined.
"The desire and the goal must be for clear improvement to be seen. Perhaps the rule of thumb is for the number of cases to be cut at least by half. In other words, if there have been four thousand cases a week now, it would be around two thousand or even less,” said Pohjola.
The paper points out that in addition to the number of infections, the impact of the measures will be assessed by other familiar indicators, such the number of cases per 100,000 people over a two-week period, the percentage of positive test results and changes in the need for hospital admissions and intensive care.
However, the effects of the new restrictions will be most quickly seen in the fall in the number of cases. These results can be expected within two weeks.
The effects appear more slowly in hospital and intensive care figures because on average, people needing such care end up in the hospital about a week after the onset of symptoms.
Kari Auranen, Professor of Statistics at the University of Turku, says that the impact of the new restrictions will depend on how people react and observe them.
"The end of November, beginning of December saw a clear reversal in the growth of the epidemic, and that was probably the result of restrictions and public awareness. The question now is the same. Will it happen and how quickly," Auranen told Helsingin Sanomat.
Cheaper private testing
Tabloid Iltalehti reports that in an effort to revive the travel sector, the Association of Finnish Travel Industry has contracted for its members to be able to offer customers less expensive coronavirus testing.
At present, coronavirus tests in the public healthcare system are free of charge, and available if an individual has symptoms or is suspected of having been exposed. Test results usually come in from less than a day to 3-4 days, depending on the hospital district.
Testing by a private healthcare service can cost over 300 euros. The Association of Finnish Travel Industry says that a most commonly used PCR test will now be available for 99 euros for anyone booking a trip through one of its member travel operators. A rapid antigen test is 29 euros.
The chair of the association's board, Anne-Marjut Väänänen told the paper that these prices include a certificate in English. PCR test results will be available within ten hours, and antigen test results within a maximum of half an hour.
"Finland is one of the most expensive countries in Europe and the most expensive in the Nordic region in terms of the pricing of coronavirus tests. People cannot afford to pay for expensive tests," Väänänen points out.
The association has contracted the services of PR2You Oy, a privately owned company in Helsinki that has testing points in the capital region, Turku, the Tampere region, and the Seinäjoki – Vaasa area. Testing services are to be opened in some other parts of the country this month.
Member companies of the Association of Finnish Travel Industry include travel agencies, tour operators and airline, ship and bus companies.
Uncertainty = fewer babies
The Jyväskylä-based daily Keskisuomalainen carries a review of a poll by the Finnish Business and Policy Forum EVA showing that the vast majority, 81 percent, of Finns believe that uncertainty about the future will continue to lower the national birth rate.
Women aged 18-45 were found to be particularly concerned about the future, with 86 percent worried about both their own livelihoods and the future in general.
The paper reports that Eva economist Sanna Kurronen notes clear differences of opinion between women and men on ways to increase the birth rate.
"Women place more emphasis on the importance of flexible working hours for parents of young children than men, as well as on increasing home help and family leave reform. Reconciling work and family should still be facilitated," Kurronen stated.
As many as 88 percent of Finns consider flexible working hours to be an effective way to increase the birth rate. The study also notes that reducing unemployment may be the best measure. According to fertility studies, unemployment seems to have the effect of lowering both childbearing intentions and actually birth rates.
Collapse in trade with Russia
The economic and business daily Kauppalehti writes that the latest trade statistics for Finland and Russia make for grim reading. According to preliminary data from Statistics Finland, the value of exports of goods and services to Russia last year was 3.5 billion euros – a 20 percent fall from 2019 levels.
Heli Simola, Senior Economist at the Bank of Finland’s Institute for Economics says that in 2008 the value of exports was almost three times as high, or 9.4 billion euros.
"The change is statistically dramatic. In 2008, Russia was Finland's largest export market, but currently it is only ranked seventh," said Simola.
On the other hand, Simola pointed that these figures don't tell the whole story. In 2008, as much as 39 percent of Finland's exports to Russia were transit exports, consisting mainly of cars and mobile phones.
Perhaps a more realistic picture of the actual development of exports can be obtained by comparing the current figures with the situation in 2011-2013. Since then, exports to Russia have declined by half.
The coronavirus epidemic also put a nearly complete stop to tourism from Russia to Finland a year ago, and this is reflected in the value of service exports, which shrank by more than 40 percent last year.
Furthermore, developments in Russia's own economy have had a massive impact.
"Compared to 2008, the ruble has lost about 60 percent of its value against the euro. Naturally, such a drop has had a detrimental effect on the opportunities of Finnish companies to export to our eastern neighbour," Simola adds.