Bank of Finland governor Olli Rehn has topped a poll as the most likely winner of Finland's next Presidential election, in a survey carried out by pollster Taloustutkimus.
Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto (Green) and Prime Minister Sanna Marin (SDP) occupied the second and third positions respectively on the poll.
The results of the latest survey represent a shift from a similar poll conducted by Yle in January 2021, which found the PM to be the most favoured candidate.
Finland's next Presidential election is scheduled to take place in early 2024, and so far, none of the political figures on the list has officially announced their candidacies. Rehn did, however, say last January that he was considering a run for the role, but was focusing in the meantime on the economic fallout from the Covid pandemic.
Rehn is a former European Union Commissioner and also served as Minister of Economic Affairs in Juha Sipilä's cabinet from 2015 until 2016.
Rounding out the group of most popular prospective presidents were former Finns Party leader Jussi Halla-aho (Finns), Speaker of the Parliament Matti Vanhanen (Cen), former Helsinki Mayor and current Olympic Committee Chairman Jan Vapaavuori (NCP) and former Prime Minister Alexander Stubb (NCP).
One surprise addition to the top ten list of potential candidates was Mika Aaltola, director of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. Aaltola has become a prominent figure in Finnish media since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
As the poll was conducted in mid-March, the war in Ukraine may have impacted the survey results, according to Sami Borg, an election researcher from the University of Tampere.
"The results emphasise the president's position as the head of foreign policy in cooperation with the government and as Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Forces," Borg said.
He added that potential candidates with more foreign policy and diplomatic experience, such as Rehn or Haavisto, would likely appeal to the Finnish electorate — especially in the event of an ongoing crisis.
Lack of women candidates
Besides Marin, the only other woman who cracked the top-ten was EU Commissioner Jutta Urpilainen (SDP).
This absence of female political figures did not surprise Emilia Palonen, a senior researcher at the University of Helsinki. With war raging in Ukraine and dominating the national discussion, many male experts and politicians have made numerous media appearances. This impacts perception around credible candidate to take on these issues.
"Sanna Marin would probably be considered a trustworthy candidate, but issues of security politics are gendered and now people are looking for male leaders. National father figures of sorts," explained Palonen.
Halla-aho support thin
The Taloustutkimus poll also offered respondents the chance to nominate five other candidates. While Rehn, Haavisto, and Marin continued to occupy the top three positions, Halla-aho dropped from fourth place when the poll was broadened.
While Halla-aho received strong support from Finns Party voters, the successful candidate in any Finnish presidential election must appeal to a wider portion of the electorate.
Presidential terms in Finland last six years and the President cannot serve more than two consecutive terms.
Current President Sauli Niinistö came to office in 2012 , winning a second term in 2018.