The True Finns have effectively shattered the dream of forming a governing majority built on the foundations of the country's three largest political parties. The National Coalition and the Social Democrats now need to marshal the forces of at least two of the other smaller parties in order to form a functioning administration.
A government comprising the National Coalition, Social Democrats and the True Finns would have commanded 125 seats in Parliament, providing a comfortable decision-making majority.
The National Coalition and the Social Democrats have a combined force of 86 seats in the Parliament, at least 15 short of a Parliamentary majority. The shortfall could be made up by enlisting the support of the Christian Democrats and the Swedish Peoples Party, who would push the numbers up to 101. However this would not give the comfortable margin required for effective government, and even the absence of some MPs could cripple decision-making.
Majority and Balance Necessary
A clear governing majority isn’t all that Jyrki Katainen must consider, says political researcher Sami Borg. A balanced government should also be on his checklist.
Borg pointed out that a government should have a fair mix of right-leaning as well as left-leaning parties. As such the SDP would not be thrilled with a situation in which it was the only left-oriented party, while all the other partners were right-wing.
An administration that included the Left Alliance would help achieve an ideological balance, and could guarantee 115 parliamentary seats.
Another possible combination would include the National Coalition, the Social Democrats, the Left Alliance and the Green League. However this would be a bitter pill for Katainen, as it would provide his right-wing party with a left-leaning coalition to govern.
At the same time, a coalition of all of the smaller parties would not be a viable alternative either, as it would be ideologically scattered.
As it now stands, the Centre Party and the True Finns are set to form a formidable opposition. Katainen may still hope to win over the Greens, who suffered minimal hemorrhaging after the elections. What's certain is that the race is wide open and the latest twist in the 2011 post-election saga continues to be an engaging theatre played out in Finland’s most public political arena.