The expulsion of Russian intelligence personnel and the refusal of visas have weakened the intelligence activities of Russians in Finland, according to Supo, the Finnish Security and Intelligence Service.
Supo released its 2022 yearbook on Thursday, a document that offers an overview of Finland's security situation.
Supo said that Russian intelligence gathering has traditionally been carried out by operatives on the ground. However, the intelligence agency said it managed to significantly compromise Russian intelligence operations in Finland in 2022.
"The Russian intelligence station shrank to about half of its former size last year. The main reason for this decline was the expulsion of intelligence officers and visa refusals on the advice of Supo," the agency's chief, Antti Pelttari, said in a press release about the yearbook's release.
Supo said a declining number of Russian intelligence officers as well as Finland's eastern border restrictions had "significantly undermined" the gathering of human intelligence by Russians in Finland.
Spying diplomats
The agency said intelligence gathering by Russians has chiefly been carried out by individuals under diplomatic cover.
"While Russia is still seeking to station intelligence officers under diplomatic cover, it will have to find ways of compensating for the human intelligence shortfall, such as by increasingly adopting other forms of covert operation abroad. Establishing human intelligence contacts nevertheless remains a very time-consuming process, and alternative approaches cannot be set up overnight," Pelttari said.
The agency noted that Russia is looking to use cyber espionage to make up for the human intelligence shortfall. However, Supo said cyber espionage is an "incomplete substitute" for intelligence gathering by humans, as it provides a different type of information.
Supo reported that Russian cyber spying efforts exceeded previous levels by the second half of 2022.
Little change in terrorism threat
The intelligence agency said that Finland's terrorism threat level remains at an "elevated" state, which corresponds to the second level of a four-point scale.
It said that dangers posed by extreme right-wing terrorism had grown, while the threat of terrorism by radical Islamists was unchanged.
"Some extreme right-wing and radical Islamist actors in Finland probably harbour the desire and capacity to mount violent attacks," Supo stated in the release.
It noted that threats from followers of those ideologies are generally as individuals or small groups.
"Attacks remain unlikely in the short term. Unlicensed weapons spreading from the Ukrainian war zone are likely to increase the capacity of extremists in Europe for violence," Supo's release stated.